Livestock Production Science 87 (2004) 99 – 107

www.elsevier.com/locate/livprodsci

Practical efficiency of breeding value estimations based on

annual earnings of horses for jumping, trotting,
and galloping races in France
B. Langlois *, C. Blouin
INRA, Station de Génétique Quantitative et Appliquée, Domaine de Vilvert, 78352 Jouy-en-Josas Cedex, France

Received 19 November 2002; received in revised form 27 August 2003; accepted 14 October 2003

Abstract

In France, breeding value estimations for horses are calculated according to a BLUP animal model fitted to the log of annual
earnings in jumping, trotting races, flat races, steeplechases and hurdle races.
The regression b p/I0 and correlation R between the breeding value estimation at the moment of conception with the mean of
future performances P make it possible to check the practical efficiency of the method of indexation used.
The expected regression is one and the expected correlation depends on heritability and the mean of the determination
coefficient of the index I0. The results are the following.

Discipline Number b p/I0 Expected R Obtained R

Jumping 9569 0.95 0.25 0.39
Trotting 7029 0.79 0.33 0.26
Flat races 4383 1.18 0.27 0.33
Steeplechases and hurdle races 1986 0.80 0.22 0.15

The situation appears to be suboptimal in the case of jumping but improvements are certainly possible in the case of races.
The obtained results, however, confirm the usefulness of these tools for trotting and flat races. The case of steeplechases and
hurdle races is not as effective mainly because of the low precision of the estimations. Other predictors of performance, BLUP
for yearlings or at 3 years of age for jumpers, confirm this first analysis and the results, age per age, are detailed in the text.
D 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Horse; Performance; Breeding value; Earnings; BLUP; Animal model; Performance prediction; Sport competitions; Races

Résumé

Efficacité pratique des indices de sélection fondés sur les gains annuels en concours hippique et dans les courses de trot et de
galop en France.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +33-0-1-34-65-21-10; fax: +33-0-1-34-65-22-10.

E-mail address: Bertrand.Langlois@dga.jouy.inra.fr (B. Langlois).

0301-6226/$ - see front matter D 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.livprodsci.2003.10.003
100 B. Langlois, C. Blouin / Livestock Production Science 87 (2004) 99–107

L’estimation de la valeur génétique des chevaux est calculée en France par un BLUP en modèle animal ajusté sur le
logarithme des gains annuels en concours hippique, en courses au trot et au galop, en plat et à l’obstacle.
La régression b p/I0 et la corrélation R entre l’estimation de la valeur génétique au moment de la conception, avec la moyenne
des futures performances P autorise à vérifier l’efficacité théorique et pratique de la méthode d’indexation mise en œuvre. La
régression attendue est de 1 et la corrélation attendue dépend de l’héritabilité et du coefficient de détermination moyen de
l’indice I0. Les résultats obtenus sont les suivants:

Discipline Effectif b p/I0 R attendu R obtenu

Concours hippique 9569 0.95 0.25 0.39
Courses au trot 7029 0.79 0.33 0.26
Courses plates 4383 1.18 0.27 0.33
Courses à obstacles 1986 0.80 0.22 0.15

La situation apparaı̂t être suboptimale dans le cas du concours hippique mais des améliorations sont très certainement
envisageables dans le cas des courses. Toutefois, les résultats obtenus confirment l’utilité de ces outils de sélection pour les
courses au trot et les courses plates. Dans le cas des courses à obstacles c’est moins évident principalement à cause de la
faible précision moyenne des estimations. D’autres prédicteurs de la performance, le BLUP des yearling ou des 3 ans pour
les chevaux de sport confirment cette première analyse et les résultats âge par âge sont détaillés dans le texte.
Mots clés: Cheval/Valeur génétique/Gains/BLUP/Modèle animal/Prédiction des performances/Compétitions équestres/
Courses
D 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction 2. Material and methods

In France, the performance of horses in races and 2.1. Measuring performances

equestrian competitions is measured by different per-
formance indices (Langlois, 1993). These indices are
based on transformations of the annual earnings and
they produce normally distributed values with a mean
of 100 and a standard deviation of 20. These indices
are corrected intra-year of performance for age and sex.
Breeding value estimations were calculated accord-
ing to a BLUP animal model fitted to the log of annual
earnings in jumping (Tavernier, 1990a), trotting races
(earnings per start) (Tavernier, 1989a,b), flat races,
and steeplechases and hurdle races. Evaluations were
made every year. In the future, additional information
based on ranking will be used (Tavernier, 1990b).
It is, therefore, possible to check, discipline by
discipline, the BLUP obtained at certain moments of
decision-making by the breeder with the mean of its
future performances evaluated by annual indices.
In this paper, the regression and the correlation
between the breeding value estimation at the moment
of conception (first choice of the breeder) and at the
moment of the sale, as a yearling for race horses or as 3
year olds for sport horses, with future performances
were studied.
The choice of annual earnings as criteria to mea-
sure horse performances has often been discussed (for
reviews, see Hintz, 1980; Klemetsdal, 1990; Langlois,
1980b, 1982, 1984b, 1996a,b; Tolley et al., 1985). In
France, the criteria for jumping are the logarithm of
annual earnings. The same applies for gallop races
(flat and steeplechases and hurdles). For trotting, it is
the log of annual average earnings per start. Other
transformations of earnings have been proposed with
similar effect as log (Minkema, 1979; Arnason et al.,
1989; Klemetsdal, 1989).
2.2. Model of analysis
Measure of performance is fitted to the following
linear model according to Tavernier (1988a):
y ¼ Xb þ Zu þ Wm þ Zp þ e
with: y = vector of observations, b = vector of fixed
effects (sex and age  year classes), u = vector of
individual additive genetic values, m = vector of ‘‘ma-
 B. Langlois, C. Blouin / Livestock Production Science 87 (2004) 99–107 101

ternal’’ effects: common environment to the offsprings with ru2 =h2ry2,rm 2

=vry2,rp2,rp2 =(rvh2)ry2, r2e =(1r)
of a same mare, p = vector of common environment ry , A: relationship matrix, I: identity matrix, h2:
2

ef-fects on different performances of the same horse, heritability, r: repeatability, v: ‘‘maternal’’ component
e = vector of residual error, X, Z, W are incidence of variance.
matrices. Relationship matrix includes all animal performers
Fixed effects were sex (female and male or geld- and nonperformers, reproducers and nonreproducers.
ing) and an age by year interaction. There were five Lines of the Z matrix corresponding to nonperformers
age classes: 4, 5, 6 – 7, 8 –10, 11 years old and more are filled with zeros.
for jumping; 2, 3, 4, 5, 6– 10 years old for trotters.
There were four age classes for gallop races: 2, 3, 4, 5 2.3. Estimating breeding values
years old and more for flat races and 3, 4, 5, 6 years
old and more for steeplechases and hurdle races. Equations obtained by minimisation of the error
These age classes were cross classified with year of variance for estimating the effects of the model
performance starting in 1972 for jumping, 1968 for described above are as follows:
trotting and 1950 for gallop races. The effects of age
with year is significant and can be explained by the 2 3
XVX XVZ XVW XVZ
policy of allocating money for age classes changes 6 7
with time and combines its effect with that of money 6 7
6 7
inflation. 6 ZVX ZVZ þ t1 A1 ZVW ZVZ 7
6 7
The ‘‘maternal’’ effect is an interpretation of the 6 7
6 7
difference found between the paternal and maternal 6 7
6 WVX WVZ WVW þ t2 I WVZ 7
components of variance. This difference is due to the 6 7
6 7
common environment of the offspring of the same 4 5
mare because, in the great majority of cases, an ZVW ZVZ ZVW ZVZ þ t3 I
2 3 2 3
owner only has one mare; the maternal effect (sensu b XVy
stricto) is confounded with the influence of the 6 7 6 7
6 7 6 7
breeder. 6 7 6 7
6 u 7 6 ZVy 7
Common environment on different performances 6 7 6 7
6 7 6 7
of the same horse represents the difference between 6 7¼6 7
6 7 6 7
the correlations between two performances (repeat- 6 m 7 6 WVy 7
6 7 6 7
ability) and heritability added to the ‘‘maternal’’ 6 7 6 7
4 5 4 5
component, and is explained by the permanent envi-
ronment of the horse after the rearing period. p ZVy
Expectation (E) and variance– covariance matrix
(V) of this linear model are: with: t 1 =(1  r)/h 2 , t 2 =(1  r)/v, t 3 =(1  r)/(r 
h2  v), resolution of these equations and calculation
2 3 2 3 of the precision are shown in Tavernier (1988).
y Xb Genetic parameters for jumping have been estimated
6 7 6 7 2 u 3 2 Ar 2 0 0 0
3
by Langlois (1975b, 1980a) and Tavernier (1986).
6 7 6 7
6 7 6 7 6 7 6 u 7 Repeatability is 0.45, maternal component of variance
6u7 6 0 7
6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7
6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 0.05, and heritability 0.20.
6 7 6 7 6m7
6 6 0 Ir2m 0 0 7
6 7 6 7 6 7 7
6
6
7
7 For trotting, the genetic parameters have been
E6 7 6
6 m 7¼6 0 7
7V6 7¼6 7 estimated by Langlois (1984a, 1986, 1989) and
6 7 6 6 7
7 6 7 6 7
6 7 6 7 6p7 6 0 0 Ir2p 0 7 [Tavernier (1989a,b). Heritability is 0.26, repeat-
6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6
7
7
6p7 6 7
0 7 4 5 4 5 ability 0.36, and maternal component of variance
6 7 6
6 7 6 7 2 0.04.
4 5 4 5 e 0 0 0 Ire
For gallop races, the genetic parameters used are
e 0 the last estimated by Langlois et al. (1996). In flat
102 B. Langlois, C. Blouin / Livestock Production Science 87 (2004) 99–107

Table 1
Percentage of born horses having earnings at a given age
Activity Breed Age (years) Career
2 3 4 5 6
Jumping SF + AA (% of the total)a – – 0.22 0.29 0.29 0.42
(0.90) (0.82) (0.76) (0.75)
Trotting TF 0.04 0.25 0.27 0.18 – 0.32
Flat races Thoroughbred 0.16 0.32 – – – 0.35
Steeplechases and hurdle races Thoroughbred – 0.08 0.10 0.07 – 0.16
Abbreviations: SF = ‘‘Selle Francßais’’; AA = Anglo-Arab; TF = ‘‘Trotteur Francßais’’.
a
Jumping competitions are open to racing breeds.

races, such as steeplechases and hurdle races, herita- where R is the precision of I (correlation of I with A)
bility is 0.25 and maternal component of variance is and c is the correlation of I with E
0.05, repeatability being 0.38 and 0.44, respectively.
rI ¼ RrA
They are in concordance with our previous results
(Langlois 1975a, 1980b). ¼ RhrP
rE ¼ erP
2.4. Expected regressions and correlations between By definition of e, which lead to
breeding value and future performances
CovðI; PÞ ¼ R2 r2A þ cRher2P
Let I be the animal model BLUP Index estimator of
and to the regression of performance P on I
the additive genetic value A of a horse for the aptitude
to a given discipline (jumping, trotting races, flat CovðI; PÞ R2 h2 r2P cRher2P
races, hurdle races and steeple chases). Let P be the bP =I ¼ ¼ 2 2 2 þ 2 2 2
r2I R h rP R h rP
measure of the horse performance:
which give after simplifications
P ¼AþE
1 e
where E is a residual error mainly due to the effect of bP =I ¼ 1 þ c
R h
environment. We can write:
If c = 0 the value of that regression is 1 and
CovðI; PÞ ¼ CovðI; AÞ þ CovðI; EÞ deviation from 1 gives a tool to evaluate c the
correlation between BLUP evaluation and environ-
CovðI; AÞ ¼ RrI rA mental effect on performance.
If such a correlation exists, it induces a genotype
and Cov(I, E) = crIrE by environment correlation s = Rc between A and E.

Table 2
Population structure
Breed SF + AA TF Thoroughbred
Activity Jumping Trotting Flat races Steeplechases
and hurdle races
Considered career (years) 4–6 2–5 2–3 3–5
Mean number of yearly performances per horse having earnings 1.9 2.3 1.4 1.6
Mean yearly number of offsprings born per stallion 9.3 14.0 6.6
Mean age of reproducers 11.6 11.3 10.6
Abbreviations: SF ‘‘Selle Francßais’’; AA = Anglo-Arab = TF = ‘‘Trotteur Francßais’’.
 B. Langlois, C. Blouin / Livestock Production Science 87 (2004) 99–107 103

Table 3 For trotting, birth years 1989 and 1990 were

BLUP at birth and their coefficients of determination (CD) of placed chosen to check the performances from 1991 to 1996.
(1) versus unplaced (0) of horses born in the first year of the studya
For flat races, birth years 1991 and 1992 were
Breed and Placed = 1, Variable n Mean S.D.
chosen to check the performances from 1993 to 1996.
birth year unplaced = 0
For steeplechases and hurdle races, birth years
Saddle breeds 1 BLUP 3628 7.3 5.5
1990 and 1991 were chosen to check the perform-
in jumping 1 CD 3628 0.21 0.06
(1988) 0 BLUP 4462 4.3 5.6 ances from 1993 to 1996.
0 CD 4462 0.19 0.07 BLUP breeding value estimations at the moment of
conception do not include the performances from the
All breeds 1 BLUP 4869 5.4 6.1 year before the birth to 1996. The same principle is
in jumping 1 CD 4869 0.18 0.08
applied + 1 year for yearlings and + 3 years for 3-
(1988)
year-old sport horses.
‘‘Trotteur Francßais’’ 1 BLUP 3549 21.0 5.9 Table 1 gives the percentage of horses born with
in trotting 1 CD 3549 0.30 0.04 obtaining earnings at given ages in the studied dis-
(1989) 0 BLUP 7171 18.5 5.8 ciplines. Table 2 gives information on the population
0 CD 7171 0.29 0.04
structure. This is similar to that currently encountered
Thoroughbred 1 BLUP 2345 21.9 5.3 for horse populations: too many stallions, a low
in flat races 1 CD 2345 0.26 0.07 replacement rate leading to animals that are too old
(1991) 0 BLUP 3212 18.6 6.3 with few offspring per reproducer, and a long gener-
0 CD 3212 0.25 0.07 ation interval. Table 3 allows estimation of the selec-
tion pressure realised when considering only horses
Thoroughbred 1 BLUP 1009 6.9 3.5
in steeplechases 1 CD 1009 0.18 0.08 with earnings.
and hurdle races 0 BLUP 4612 5.8 3.0 As a first example, the overall mean for saddle
(1990) 0 CD 4612 0.13 0.07 breeds (SF + AA) can be calculated from lines 1 and 3
a
The results for the second birth year and for BLUP as yearling of Table 3; i.e. 5.6. Intensity of selection i=(7.3  5.6)/
or as 3 year olds are very similar and are not given. 5.5 = 0.309, which implies a selection rate p = 0.83, is
far from the percentage of selection 0.42 presented in
2.5. Birth year tested Table 1.
The same calculation for trotters gives i = 0.288
For jumping, birth years 1988 and 1989 were which implies a selection rate p = 0.85 which is far
chosen to check the performances from 1992 to 1996. from the 0.32 presented in Table 1.

Table 4
Linear relationship between the annual phenotypic index and the BLUP breeding value estimation at the moment of conception and at 3 years of
age for jumping horses (all breeds) (mean for birth years 1988 and 1989)
Performance at Performance at Performance at Mean performance
4 years of age 5 years of age 6 years of age of the career
Number of horses 4203 6031 6385 9569
Regression coefficient on 0.76 1.03 1.02 0.95
the BLUP at conception
Expected correlationa 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25
Obtained correlation 0.35 0.36 0.34 0.39

Regression coefficient on 0.75 1.00 1.02 0.93

the BLUP at 3 years of age
Expected correlationa 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.28
Obtained correlation 0.36 0.38 0.36 0.40
a
Calculated from heritability, accuracy of the Blup and the reduction of variance in the mean performance of the career.
104 B. Langlois, C. Blouin / Livestock Production Science 87 (2004) 99–107

Table 5
Linear relationship between the annual phenotypic index and the BLUP breeding value estimation at the moment of conception and as yearling
for trotters (mean for birth years 1989 and 1990)
Performance at Performance at Performance at Performance at Mean performance
2 years of age 3 years of age 4 years of age 5 years of age of the career
Number of horses 808 5402 5837 3923 7029
Regression coefficient 0.60 0.76 0.89 0.75 0.79
on the BLUP at conception
Expected correlationa 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.33
Obtained correlation 0.17 0.22 0.26 0.21 0.26

Regression coefficient 0.59 0.79 0.92 0.76 0.81

on the BLUP as a yearling
Expected correlationa 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.33
Obtained correlation 0.17 0.23 0.26 0.22 0.26
a
Calculated from heritability, accuracy of the BLUP and the reduction of variance in the mean performance of the career.

For thoroughbreds in flat races, i = 0.189 which
implies a selection rate p = 0.90, also far from the 0.35
presented in Table 1.
The situation in steeplechases and hurdle races
gives i = 0.257 which implies a selection rate p =
0.86, again far from the 0.16 presented in Table 1.
One can observe from this data that the selection
bias is not as important as it first appears. We can also
note that the other birth years and BLUP as yearling
or as 3 year olds gave similar results.
performance. Table 8 gives the estimates of these
correlations from the observed data. It reveals that
they are quite low, if they exist.
From a practical point of view, breeding value
estimation at the moment of conception has a corre-
lation of 0.39 with further performances in jumping
and 0.33 with those of flat races. In these two cases,
the correlations exceed the expected values (0.25 and
0.27, respectively). In the case of trotting races,
steeplechases and hurdle races, correlations of 0.33

3. Results Table 6
Linear relationship between the annual phenotypic index and the
Tables 4 –7 give the detailed results for jumping, BLUP breeding value estimation at the moment of conception and
as yearling for flat races (mean for birth years 1991 and 1992)
trotting races, flat races and steeplechases and
hurdle races, respectively. Performance Performance Mean
at 2 years at 3 years performance
Predicting performance through breeding value of age of age of the career
evaluation at the moment of conception overevaluated
Number of horses 1928 3792 4383
the level of performance actually achieved by 5%,
21% and 20%, respectively, for jumping, trotting, and Regression 0.77 1.23 1.18
coefficient on the
steeplechases and hurdle races. On the contrary, it BLUP at conception
underevaluated by 18% in the case of flat races. The Expected correlationa 0.26 0.26 0.27
situation was similar for predicting performance at the Obtained correlation 0.21 0.31 0.33
moment of the sale (as yearlings or as 3-year-old sport
horses). For jumping it was suboptimal, as already Regression coefficient 0.79 1.25 1.21
on the BLUP as
discussed by Tavernier (1994). In the other cases, we a yearling
have either an over- or underestimation of the realised Expected correlationa 0.26 0.26 0.28
heritability or we have to take into account a correla- Obtained correlation 0.23 0.33 0.34
tion between breeding value estimation at the begin- a
Calculated from heritability, accuracy of the BLUP and the
ning of the career and further environmental effects on reduction of variance in the mean performance of the career.
 B. Langlois, C. Blouin / Livestock Production Science 87 (2004) 99–107 105

Table 7
Linear relationship between the annual phenotypic index and the BLUP breeding value estimation at the moment of conception and as yearling
for steeplechases and hurdle races (mean for birth years 1990 and 1991)
Performance at Performance at Performance at Mean performance
3 years of age 4 years of age 5 years of age of the career
Number of horses 1013 1296 856 1986
Regression coefficient 0.71 0.90 0.69 0.80
on the BLUP at conception
Expected correlationa 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.22
Obtained correlation 0.13 0.16 0.12 0.15

Regression coefficient 0.86 0.88 0.78 0.86

on the BLUP as a yearling
Expected correlationa 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.24
Obtained correlation 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.17
a
Calculated from heritability, accuracy of the BLUP and the reduction of variance in the mean performance of the career.

and 0.22 were expected but only 0.26 and 0.15 are
obtained, respectively.
Age by age, the results showed that agreement
between expected and obtained values were generally
better for performances obtained in older horses. Total
expression of the performance potential was probably
not regularly achieved in young animals.
For the two birth years tested, agreement was
generally good. The rare exceptions (2-year-old trot-
ters) can easily be explained by certain changes in
data management (anniversary date changing from
December 31 to September 15 in 1992).
Between the moment of conception and that of
sale, the slight increase in accuracy and in efficacy is
surprising. This is due to a large dispersion of the
annual information over too many stallions. This is a
characteristic of horse breeding structures (small
number of mated mares per stallion and great variance
of family size).

Table 8
Interpretation of the difference to 1 of the regression coefficient of 4. Discussion
the mean performance (P) on the BLUP at conception and as
yearlings or 3 years old (I ) for jumpers in terms of genetic/
environment correlation The results of this study indicate that breeding
Discipline bP/I CD c s
value estimations proposed in France to optimise the
use of earnings in competitions for breeding purposes
Jumping
Conception 0.95 0.19  0.01  0.00
are doing well for sport horses selected for jumping.
3 years old 0.93 0.22  0.01  0.00 In this case, BLUP breeding offers a correlation close
to 0.40 with the future performance of the horse. This
Trotting races is much higher than traditional methods based on the
Conception 0.79 0.31  0.07  0.04 appreciation of conformation and gaits for which
Yearling 0.81 0.30  0.06  0.04
similar efficiency was found between 0.10 and 0.15
Flat races by Langlois et al. (1978).
Conception 1.18 0.27 + 0.06 + 0.03 In the case of race horses, we can distinguish
Yearling 1.21 0.28 + 0.06 + 0.03 between flat races, where there was a correlation of
0.33 but where breeding value estimations systemat-
Steeplechases and hurdle races
Conception 0.80 0.19  0.05  0.02
ically underestimated the level of performances
Yearling 0.86 0.18  0.03  0.02 achieved, and the case of trotting races and steeple-
CD: mean coefficient of determination of the BLUP; c: estimated
chases/hurdle races with, respectively, a correlation of
correlation of the BLUP and environmental effect on performance; 0.26 and 0.15 and which overestimated the level of
s: induced genetic/environment correlation. performances. In the case of trotting, the underesti-
106 B. Langlois, C. Blouin / Livestock Production Science 87 (2004) 99–107
mations are certainly not so important because the
change of the anniversary date shortened the career of
ages 2 and 3 for horses born in 1990 and after. This
hardly impacts on the regressions presented for ages 2
and 3 leading to a general underestimation of ob-
served results.
Assuming that the values for heritabilities used are
true, Table 8 shows that the breeding value estima-
tions and environmental effect on performances have
a correlation of only 0.06 in the case of flat races for
which such a correlation is often mentioned. On the
other hand, it is difficult to understand why we should
have a negative correlation ( 0.03 to  0.07) for
trotting or steeplechases and hurdle races. This would
mean that the best pedigree horses do not have such a
good environment or the reverse! It is true, however,
that these hypothetical correlations seem very low. It
is, therefore, more practical to ignore it and to propose
some changes in the heritability values or in the model
for indexation. We propose to search for heritability
values that make the regression coefficient of perfor-
mance on breeding value estimations shown here near
to one. However, a more thorough discussion on the
model is needed.
5. Conclusion
Breeding value estimations with the BLUP animal
model calculated according to earnings in competi-
tions in France appears to be a very useful tool for
breeders. They are suboptimal in the case of jumping
and give a practical correlation with the breeding
objective of 0.39.
They could certainly be improved in the case of race
horses. However, in their present state of development,
they predict further performances rather well in the case
of flat (r = 0.33) and trotting races (r = 0.26).
Steeplechases and hurdle races are characterised
by a low expected precision in the prediction of
the performance level. The correlation achieved
with the breeding objective is therefore low (r =
0.15). We would, however, recommend in that case
using only a few animals with high accuracy of
their breeding value estimation for this breeding
objective.
For all racing activities, we recommend testing new
values of heritability for breeding value estimations.
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