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Implications of The Financial Crisis For The US-China Rivalry
Implications of The Financial Crisis For The US-China Rivalry
Aaron L. Friedberg is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. A new edition of
his 1988 book The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895–1905 will be released in the
autumn by Princeton University Press. His latest book on the emerging US–China rivalry will be published in
spring 2011 by W.W. Norton.
Internal effects
In broad outline, the United States and China passed through similar expe-
riences following the start of the global financial meltdown nearly two years
ago. Both experienced sharp drops in aggregate demand and a decline in
growth rates (in the US case triggered by a contraction of credit and the
collapse of consumer spending, in China as the result of a sharp fall-off in
exports) and both initiated large-scale stimulus programmes designed to
boost demand and restore growth. In the US case the slowdown was suf-
ficient to tip the economy into a protracted recession; in China expansion
slowed briefly and then resumed at near pre-crisis rates. The difference in
the two countries’ performance has caused some observers to conclude that
China must be the ‘winner’ in the current crisis.
From a geopolitical perspective what matters most are relative rather
than absolute gains; not how fast each economy is growing (or contracting),
but how wide the differential is between their respective growth rates. Since
the end of the Cold War the US economy has been expanding at an average
of about 3% per year while China has enjoyed annual growth rates closer to
10%. It is this persistent seven-point gap that has caused many economists
to predict that, by the middle of this century, at the latest, China will have
overtaken the United States in terms of total output. If both countries return
quickly to their pre-crisis growth trajectories the date of expected conver-
Implications of the Financial Crisis for the US–China Rivalry | 33
gence will not change. If, on the other hand, one recovers more rapidly or
more completely than the other, that moment could either be moved up, or
pushed even further into the future.
While there are some optimistic outliers, the emerging consensus among
forecasters is that the United States will not bounce back immediately to its
pre-crisis performance. Instead of averaging 3–3.5% per year (to say nothing
of the 4% some had predicted at the turn of the century, before the dot.com
bubble burst) growth is expected to remain at about 2–2.5% for much of this
decade and perhaps beyond.3 As for China, after rising to a peak of 13% in
2007, its annual growth was cut almost in half (to around 7% on a year-on-
year basis), during the initial stages of the global crisis.4 Thanks to a very
aggressive response by the central authorities, growth climbed back to just
under 9% in 2009. Some estimates show it hovering between 9 and 10% for
at least the next few years, while others are even more bullish, at least in the
near term.5 If China can return to something near its pre-crisis, double-digit
growth rates while the United States continues to limp along at roughly
0.5–1% less than its earlier performance, the gap between the two countries
will obviously close even more rapidly than it was before.
Whether or not China can sustain its initial recovery remains to be seen.
At least in the near term, Beijing responded to the crisis by doubling down on
a development model that was already approaching the limits of its utility.
Rather than taking aggressive steps to boost consumer spending as a share
of GDP, a course that both outside experts and many Chinese officials have
identified as essential to sustaining long-term growth, the regime chose ini-
tially to pump even more money into infrastructure projects and to provide
both direct and indirect support for a variety of export industries.6 While
this approach may have been effective in preventing an even steeper short-
term drop in output, it threatens to create massive excess capacity, fuelling
asset bubbles, weighing down banks with more non-performing loans and
setting the stage for another slowdown that will be even deeper and more
difficult to manage. As economist Stephen Roach points out, Beijing appears
to have acted on the assumption that, as in previous recessions, foreign (and
especially US) demand would soon recover, leading to a rise in exports and
a resumption of rapid growth. If this turns out not to be the case, however,
34 | Aaron L. Friedberg
Roach concludes that China ‘runs the real risk of facing a more pronounced
shortfall in economic growth’.7 In sum, short-term expedients may end up
hastening the day of reckoning for China’s investment-heavy, export-led
development strategy. While the regime has recently taken steps to encour-
age domestic demand, permitting workers wages to rise and the renminbi
to appreciate, the changes to date have been small and tentative.8
Despite its magnitude, Beijing’s stimulus programme was insufficient to
forestall a sizeable spike in unemployment. The regime acknowledges that
upwards of 20 million migrant workers lost their jobs in the first year of
the crisis, with many returning to their villages, and 7m
recent college graduates are reportedly on the streets in
Beijing’s search of work.9 Not surprisingly, tough times have been
accompanied by increased social turmoil. Even before the
stimulus was crisis hit, the number of so-called ‘mass incidents’ (such
insufficient as riots or strikes) reported each year in China had been
rising. Perhaps because it feared that the steep upward
trend might be unnerving to foreign investors, Beijing stopped publishing
aggregate, national statistics in 2005.10 Nevertheless, there is ample, if frag-
mentary, evidence that things got worse as the economy slowed. In Beijing,
for example, salary cuts, layoffs, factory closures and the failure of busi-
ness owners to pay back wages resulted in an almost 100% increase in the
number of labour disputes brought before the courts.11 Since the early days
of the current crisis, the regime has clearly been bracing itself for trouble.
Thus, at the start of 2009, an official news-agency story candidly warned
Chinese readers that the country was, ‘without a doubt … entering a peak
period of mass incidents’.12 In anticipation of an expected increase in unrest,
the regime for the first time summoned all 3,080 county-level police chiefs to
the capital to learn the latest riot-control tactics, and over 200 intermediate
and lower-level judges were also called in for special training.13
At least for the moment, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) appears
to be weathering the storm. But if in the next several years the economy
slumps again or simply fails to return to its previous pace, Beijing’s trou-
bles will mount. The regime probably has enough repressive capacity to
cope with a good deal more turbulence than it has thus far encountered,
Implications of the Financial Crisis for the US–China Rivalry | 35
grow, and the federal government’s efforts to contain the banking crisis and
stimulate the economy have produced even bigger imbalances. In the span
of only a year the deficit quadrupled in size from $459 billion (or 3.2% of
GDP) to $1.85 trillion (13.1% of GDP).16 This would be the most rapid dete-
rioration on record, far worse than any previous recession.17
More important than the speed with which this gap has opened is its
sheer size: the deficit is now larger in relation to the economy as a whole
than at any time since the end of the Second World War.18 In order to cover
the difference between revenues and expenditures, Washington has had to
borrow at an unprecedented rate, with the result that the federal debt has
ballooned from 41% of GDP to 60%.19 For the moment, low interest rates
have helped hold down the cost of servicing this massive increase in debt.
As interest rates rise from their current low levels, so too will the size of the
federal government’s payments to its creditors. Within the next decade, for
the first time on record, annual payments on the federal debt will exceed
outlays for national defence.20
This transition is symbolic; higher debt payments do not necessarily
have to mean downward pressure on defence spending. For a variety of
reasons, however, this is likely to be the case. The combination of rising
interest costs, slower growth and the long-awaited explosion in entitlement
programmes due to population aging will tend to squeeze all forms of ‘dis-
cretionary spending’.21 Of these, the defence budget is the biggest and, in
political terms, it may turn out to be the most vulnerable. As the United
States disentangles itself from Iraq and Afghanistan, there will be calls to
pocket the resulting ‘peace dividend’ and to direct more resources to urgent
domestic needs. Instead of being freed to spend more on systems relevant
to a possible long-term competition with China, the Defense Department is
likely over the coming decade to face the necessity of making cuts in R&D
and procurement.22
Barring some galvanising event, the United States may lack not only the
resources to conduct a sustained rivalry with China but the inclination to do
so. Recent opinion polls show a sharp increase in the number of Americans
who believe their country should ‘mind its own business and let others get
along on their own’. Indeed, nearly half of those questioned in 2009 agreed
Implications of the Financial Crisis for the US–China Rivalry | 37
with this proposition, the largest fraction on record, bigger even than at
the end of the Vietnam War. These sentiments no doubt reflect the nation’s
unhappy experiences over the last eight years with terrorism and insur-
gency, but they are also clearly a product of the recent economic downturn.
Since the start of the crisis the number of Americans who see their country
as the world’s leading economic power has fallen sharply (from 41% in
February 2008 to 27% in November 2009), even as those who see China in
this role have grown more numerous (from 30% to 44%). While ordinary
citizens remain wary of China, they show little sign of wanting to compete
with it for influence. To the contrary, the American people at present seem
far more inclined to want to tend to their own problems than to go out into
the world looking for trouble.23 What remains to be seen is whether and if so
how China will try to exploit an interval of American introspection.
Bilateral relations
From the Nixon administration’s first feelers to Beijing until the Tiananmen
Square ‘incident’ and the end of the Cold War, the United States and China
were drawn together mainly by their shared opposition to the Soviet Union.
For the last 20 years, by contrast, the two powers have been united primarily
by trade. The benefits from increasingly close commercial ties have helped
to at least partially offset underlying ideological and geopolitical impulses
toward mutual mistrust and strategic rivalry. To be sure, economic issues
were, at times, a source of contention. Still, recurrent disputes over intel-
lectual property rights, subsidies and currency values were never serious
enough to threaten bilateral flows of trade and investment, still less to poison
the larger political relationship between the United States and China.
The current crisis may mark the end of a period in which trade served to
stabilise Sino-American relations and the beginning of one in which it will
become a source of increasing friction and conflict. Recent events may also
lead to at least a partial decoupling of the two nations’ economies, a devel-
opment that could have significant implications for their dealings with each
other, and with the rest of the world.
For the better part of two decades the United States has been import-
ing more from China than it exports and paying for the difference with
38 | Aaron L. Friedberg
Treasury bills and other dollar-denominated assets. Despite the fact that
it was heavily lopsided, this arrangement had clear benefits for both sides.
American consumers enjoyed inexpensive goods and lower interest rates
than would otherwise have been possible. For their part, Chinese manufac-
turers (or, more precisely, manufacturers with final production facilities in
China, some of which were actually owned by American and other foreign
companies) gained access to the vast US market. The Chinese government
helped boost exports by holding down the value of the renminbi (by using it
to buy dollars) and invested the resulting surplus in Treasury securities and
other dollar-denominated assets that were generally assumed to be safe,
stable investments.
Over time, cheap Chinese imports did cost some Americans their jobs, but
with the US economy growing steadily through most of the 1990s, these neg-
ative effects were small in comparison to the actual and perceived potential
benefits of more trade with China. In terms of their political clout, the indus-
tries that hoped to gain from this trade (aerospace, electronics and financial
services, among others) and which therefore opposed the imposition of any
protectionist measures were also far stronger than their opponents. From
the early 1990s the executive branch was thus able to deflect demands for
tariffs or other industry-specific measures by ‘jaw-boning’ Beijing into
making small adjustments in exchange rates that were presumed to help
all American exporters. In spite of this, between 2005 and 2007, 45 pieces
of legislation were introduced in Congress for the purpose either of raising
the cost of specific Chinese imports or, by threatening to impose across-the-
board tariffs, compelling Beijing to modify its exchange-rate policy. None of
these bills could generate sufficient support, in large part because, as Roach
notes, ‘they were introduced during a period of prosperity and low unem-
ployment’. With the onset of the crisis both conditions have changed, with
the result that ‘long-standing pressures on American workers are intensify-
ing – as are related pressures on their elected representatives to act’.24
If growth remains slow and unemployment stays high, the balance of
political forces could begin to shift in favour of protection. Even as calls
for trade restrictions grow, the increasing frustration of many American
companies at their inability to protect intellectual property, compete with
Implications of the Financial Crisis for the US–China Rivalry | 39
favoured local rivals, and make money in the Chinese market means that
the advocates of continued openness are less united and less powerful than
they once were.25 Serious measures to restrict imports from China would
endanger that country’s recovery and long-term growth and would likely
trigger an escalatory response and a downward spiral in trade and political
relations. Despite the obvious dangers, the odds of this happening over the
next several years are probably greater than at any time since Tiananmen
and perhaps since the era of ‘reform and opening up’ began in the late
1970s. Indeed, the possibility of a US–China trade war has been identified
by some market analysts as ‘the biggest risk to global stability over the next
few years’.26
For the moment, trade tensions have been channelled into the continuing
dispute over currency values. Here, although they have thus far behaved
cautiously, Beijing and Washington are playing what amounts to a game of
‘chicken’. Rather than proceed immediately with a formal
accusation of currency manipulation, as future Treasury
Secretary Timothy Geithner hinted that it might during Beijing and
the 2008 presidential campaign, in its first year in office the
Barack Obama administration allowed congressional pres-
Washington
sure to build, while at the same time hinting that it might not are playing
be able to hold back popular demands for action.27 Public
statements by top US officials seemed designed to convey
a game of
the message that, whatever sound economic reasoning ‘chicken’
might dictate, and regardless of the preferences of leaders
on both sides, failure to make adjustments could have grave consequences
that neither will be able to control. As Obama himself put it towards the end
of 2009, if the two countries do not succeed in correcting deep economic
imbalances, they will impose ‘enormous strains’ on their relationship.28
Beijing’s announcement in June 2010 that it would ‘enhance’ the renmin-
bi’s ‘exchange rate flexibility’ seems to have been designed in large part to
deflect pressure from the United States and China’s other advanced indus-
trial trading partners.29 Whether the resulting adjustments will be sufficient
to achieve this end remains, at this writing, unclear, but there are reasons to
doubt it. Within hours of its formal statement, the People’s Bank of China
40 | Aaron L. Friedberg
‘panics’ are always possible and relevant decisions are made not merely by
a handful of ‘national command authorities’, but by large numbers of inde-
pendent investors.
China’s accumulation of dollars is a reflection of its trade surplus
with the United States and that, in turn, is a manifestation of the symbi-
otic imbalances between savings and consumption in the two countries.
Broadly speaking, the United States has been saving little, consuming much
and making up the difference by borrowing from others, especially China.
For its part, China saves a great deal, consumes relatively
little, and exports its excess savings, mainly to the United
The US has States. The mid- to long-term impact of the current crisis
will depend on whether and how these imbalances are ulti-
been saving mately addressed.
little and If both countries return to business as usual, the recent,
crisis-induced increase in US household savings will soon
consuming evaporate, the federal budget deficit will remain lodged at
much all-time high levels and the nation’s indebtedness, and its
vulnerability to financial leverage, will be greater than ever.
Meanwhile, China will continue to accumulate dollars in order to maintain
a favourable exchange rate and keep its exports cheap. The potential costs to
both sides of a future crisis will remain high, but the impact of even greater
imbalances on the ability and willingness of the United States to sustain
a strategic competition with China would probably be disproportionately
negative. If Washington is already wary of doing anything to offend Beijing,
it will likely become even more so in this scenario. Moreover, as Fred
Bergsten notes, assuming that a crisis can be avoided, ‘the steadily rising
transfer of US income to the rest of the world to service foreign debt would
seriously erode Americans’ standard of living’ and with it their inclination
to support a costly, far-flung global military posture.36
Chastened by recent experience, the American people may change their
ways and demand that their government do likewise. In this case, house-
hold savings rates will remain elevated, even after fears of foreclosure and
unemployment have receded. Once the need for a massive stimulus has
passed the federal government will move to bring expenditures into closer
Implications of the Financial Crisis for the US–China Rivalry | 43
said to herald the demise of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The
‘Washington Consensus’ would soon be displaced by a ‘Beijing Consensus’
blending market economics with authoritarian politics, and the dollar would
eventually be replaced by the renminbi.
If they were to occur, these shifts in beliefs and policies would have pro-
found strategic consequences. As the American model fell out of favour in
Asia, Africa and elsewhere, US soft power would diminish. With it would go
Washington’s ability to get its way on specific issues and, more broadly, its
capacity to reshape the world according to its own values and preferences.
Assuming that China came to be seen increasingly as the world’s most suc-
cessful and dynamic society, Washington’s loss would be Beijing’s gain.
The decline of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency would have
more concrete effects. If foreigners lose their appetite for dollars, future
US governments will no longer enjoy what has been termed the ‘exorbi-
tant privilege’ of being able to finance their expenditures at relatively low
cost (and with no exchange-rate risk) simply by issuing more debt. The
ability of the United States to sustain an assertive foreign policy and, in par-
ticular, a costly global competition with China would be correspondingly
diminished.41
With the advantage of some perspective it seems clear that announce-
ments of the evaporation of American soft power and the collapse of the
dollar are, at best, premature. There are several long leaps of logic from a
harsh critique of the US government’s deregulation of parts of the financial
industry to a more fundamental judgement that the current crisis (like the
Great Depression before it) proves the necessity of a permanently enlarged
role for government in the economy; to the conclusion that much of the
world requires an entirely new approach to economic development; to the
claim that China presently provides such a model. The first step is one that
many Americans, as well as most foreign observers, would be willing to
take; the last would likely be rejected by most informed commentators in
China, to say nothing of the rest of the world.
In East Asia on the eve of the current crisis, the United States contin-
ued to hold an advantage in soft power. A survey completed in spring 2008
found that, albeit by narrow margins, respondents in Japan, South Korea
46 | Aaron L. Friedberg
and Vietnam still saw the United States as a more important economic
partner than China (the two were tied in Indonesia). However, attempts to
measure the various dimensions of soft power (including cultural appeal
and diplomacy, as well as economic influence) found that, in each country,
the United States ranked either first or second (to Japan), while China came
in third across the board. When asked to look ahead, most of those surveyed
expressed the view that China will ‘be the leader of Asia’. But this was a
prospect that many regarded with considerable discomfort.42
Recent events have probably strengthened each element in this complex
but coherent mix of attitudes. China is important economically and likely
to become more so, but this fact will not necessarily lead to immediate,
proportionate increases in the perceived attractiveness of its culture, the
applicability of its economic model or the persuasiveness of its diplomacy.
Indeed, to the contrary, it is possible that the growing weight of China’s
economy will cause others to regard it with increasing fear and suspicion.
A serious domestic crisis could also raise doubts about the viability of the
‘Chinese model’ and its potential applicability to other societies. For all of
the fascination and even awe that it currently inspires, in a few years’ time
China’s economy could appear to be no more of a model for the rest of the
world than Japan’s economy is today. Barring a major setback, however, it is
reasonable to expect that, as was true for the United States over the course of
the twentieth century, China’s soft power will grow along with its economy
and the other elements of its hard power.
Despite the public musings of some Chinese officials about the desir-
ability of finding an alternative to the dollar, in the short run at least, the
financial crisis has served to underline its status as the world’s reserve
currency. When the global system seemed to be tottering on the brink of col-
lapse, the US economy still looked like the safest bet and the dollar the most
reliable store of value. The result, described by one observer as ‘counterintu-
itive and annoying to many non-Americans’, was that the failure of several
large domestic financial institutions led to even larger flows of capital into
the United States.43
The recent crisis may have accelerated an eventual Chinese shift away
from the dollar by highlighting in dramatic fashion the risk of investing
Implications of the Financial Crisis for the US–China Rivalry | 47
so heavily in an asset whose value Beijing cannot control. This was hardly
something of which Chinese planners were unaware. The problem for the
moment is that there is nowhere else for them to go. As one official told an
American audience in February 2009, ‘except for U.S. Treasuries, what can
you hold? … U.S. Treasuries are the safe haven. For everyone, including
China, it is the only option … We hate you guys. Once you start issuing
$1–$2 trillion … we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you
guys but there is nothing much we can do.’44
This is true, at least in the short run. In the somewhat longer term,
however, what China can do is to move gradually away from the dollar
while encouraging others to make greater use of its own currency. The
primary obstacle here has long been Beijing’s refusal to allow the renminbi
to trade freely on global markets. Because this step would mean surrender-
ing control over capital flows in and out of the country, it is one the regime
has thus far been reluctant to take. Nonetheless, by making plain that the
status quo also has its risks, the recent crisis may have tipped the balance
in internal debate towards those who favour a somewhat more rapid tran-
sition. Assuming that China continues on its present upward trajectory
the renminbi will eventually join the dollar as a medium for international
exchange. For the time being, however, the United States will continue to
enjoy its exorbitantly privileged position.45
* * *
The full effects of the financial crisis have yet to be felt because, in many
respects, the crisis is not yet over. We do not yet know if the mix of policies
presently in place in the United States, China and elsewhere will be sufficient
over the next several years to restore steady global economic growth and
head off further resort to protectionism. Nor is it clear how Washington and
Beijing will address the structural imbalances in trade and finance brought
so plainly into view by the current crisis. With that said, let us close with
some speculative thoughts on the three sets of issues analysed above: the
impact of the crisis on the capacities of the two Pacific powers, their bilateral
relations and their dealings with the rest of the world.
48 | Aaron L. Friedberg
At least for the next several years, and possibly for much of the coming
decade, the 2008–09 crisis will make it more difficult for the United States
to generate the financial resources necessary to wage an escalating arms
competition with China. On the other hand, China’s seemingly rapid recov-
ery from the recent downturn may be illusory and could prove fleeting.
Unless they are supplemented by more effective measures aimed at increas-
ing domestic consumption, the policies used to revive aggregate demand
could end up hastening a deeper and more wide-ranging systemic crisis.
Finally, it is possible that concern over the consequences of a protracted
economic slowdown for social stability could introduce an element of
unpredictability and variance into China’s leadership politics, as well as
its defence and foreign policies. Among the more negative consequences,
from a US perspective, would be a succession struggle in which the winners
used extreme nationalist appeals to help discredit their opponents and gain
power, boosted military spending to pump up the economy and adopted a
more confrontational stance towards the rest of the world.
Even without such dramatic shifts in Beijing, economic issues are likely
to become a source of increasing friction in Sino-American relations over
the next several years. This will make it even more difficult for each country
to adopt the kinds of policies necessary to rebalance their overall economic
relationship. Instead of helping to damp down underlying geopolitical and
ideological impulses towards competition, economic factors could become
an accelerant. The recent crisis may also be speeding a degree of separation
between the US and Chinese economies, as American imports of Chinese
manufactured goods drop, China’s surpluses shrink and Beijing begins to
diversify its investments and increase its reliance on domestic demand and
internally generated capital.
Weakening interdependence across the Pacific could be accompanied by
a more open and direct attempt by China to build an East Asian economic
and political ‘community’ centred on itself and marginalising the United
States. (Such a tendency would be intensified if the United States adopts a
more protectionist stance towards others in the region, as well as toward
China.) While reports of the imminent demise of the dollar and of America’s
soft power relative to China’s are exaggerated, both developments have
Implications of the Financial Crisis for the US–China Rivalry | 49
been made more plausible by the events of the past two years. The belief
that China’s rise is inevitable and may be accelerating is generating respect,
but also anxiety, and this is likely to intensify impulses toward balancing
that are already present across Asia. The inclination of others to bet on the
United States and to follow its lead will be determined, at least in part, by
perceptions of its willingness and ability to meet the economic challenges it
now confronts.
Acknowledgements
An earlier version of this paper was prepared for a seminar sponsored by the Long-Term
Strategy Group. The author wishes to thank Jonathan Kirshner and Jacqueline Newmyer
for their helpful comments.
Notes
1 For a comparison that goes beyond the cfm?fa=view&id=22851; Matthew
usual superficial parallels see Harold J. Burrows and Jennifer Harris,
James, The Creation and Destruction ‘Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical
of Value: The Globalization Cycle Effects of the Financial Crisis’,
(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Washington Quarterly, vol. 32, no.
Press, 2009). I will use the term ‘crisis’ 2, April 2009, pp. 27–38; Robert
here to refer both to the wave of bank D. Blackwill, ‘The Geopolitical
failures triggered by the bursting of Consequences of the World
the American real-estate bubble and Economic Recession – A Caution’,
the sharp and sustained slowdown in OP-275-RC (Santa Monica, CA: RAND
global growth that followed. Corporation, 2009).
2 For early efforts to assess the range of 3 David J. Lynch, ‘U.S. May Face Years
Travis Tanner (eds), Strategic Asia their growth) to 45%. Simon Tilford,
2009–10: Economic Meltdown and ‘Rebalancing the Chinese Economy’,
Geopolitical Stability (Seattle, WA: Centre for European Reform, Policy
National Bureau of Asian Research, Brief, November 2009, p. 5.
2009), pp. 72–6. 7 Stephen P. Roach, ‘Manchurian
5 See ‘OECD Sees Strong Growth, Paradox’, The National Interest, 27
Low Inflation in China’, Reuters, 19 April 2009, http://www.national-
November 2009, http://www.reuters. interest.org/Article.aspx?id=21316.
com/article/idUSSGR00205520091119. For details of the stimulus plan see
As of summer 2010, the World Bank Wayne M. Morrison, China and the
projected a 9.5% growth rate for the Global Financial Crisis: Implications for
year, falling to 8.5% in 2011. World the United States (Washington DC:
Bank, ‘China Quarterly Update: Congressional Research Service, 2009),
June 2010’, p. 1, http://siteresources. pp. 5–7.
worldbank.org/CHINAEXTN/ 8 Edward Wong, ‘China’s Export
Resources/318949-1268688634523/ Economy Begins Turning Inward’,
Quarterly_June_2010.pdf. Based New York Times, 24 June 2010, http://
on surprisingly strong growth www.nytimes.com/2010/06/25/world/
in exports, Morgan Stanley pre- asia/25china.html.
dicted that China would grow at 9 Mary Hennock, ‘Going Back to
around 11% in 2010. Qing Wang, the Farm’, Newsweek, 21 February
‘China: Upgrading 2010 Forecasts 2009, http://www.newsweek.
on Improved External Outlook’, com/2009/02/20/going-back-to-the-
MorganStanley.com, 5 February 2010, farm.html.
http://www.morganstanley.com/ 10 The last published figures reported a
views/gef/archive/2010/20100205-Fri. total of 89,000 incidents. Unconfirmed
html#anchorbafdbc0b-1262-11df-8ed5- reports suggest that there may have
77be4e01ae79. been as many as 58,000 incidents
6 Much of the $585 billion in stimulus in the first quarter of 2009 alone.
spending was funnelled to local gov- The latter figure has circulated on
ernments through bank loans. See various left-wing blogs and web-
Keith B. Richburg, ‘China’s Stimulus sites in the West. See Charlie Hore,
Spending Created Infrastructure ‘Will This Be China’s Century?’,
Projects That May Not Be Needed’, Socialist Review, January 2010, http://
Washington Post, 18 June 2010, p. A22, www.socialistreview.org.uk/article.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ php?articlenumber=11111.
wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/17/ 11 ‘China Braces for Social Unrest’, Radio
AR2010061705794.html. Since the Free Asia, 22 December 2008, http://
onset of the crisis the share of national www.rfa.org/english/news/china/
income devoted to investment has unrest-12222008100212.html.
grown from 40% (a figure that is 12 Chris Buckley, ‘China Seen
already higher than that seen in Facing Wave of Unrest in 2009’,
other Asian countries at the peak of Reuters, 6 January 2009, http://
Implications of the Financial Crisis for the US–China Rivalry | 51