The change management of Brexit

Isolde Genevieve Kanikani

4th November 2020

Introduction:

The complexity and unknown nature of the Brexit change events ask for a more people orientated form
of change management, based on strong sponsorship and project planning while utilizing the available
best practice knowledge and experience in the field of change management. This would decrease
change resistance, increase speed of adoption, ultimate utilization and proficiency.

Brexit was and is no ordinary change situation, unique in that a country leaving the EU has never
occurred before. Therefore there is no precedent that could serve as a guide to what is essentially a
radically complex set of change projects (Draczkowska 2018) with their own extremely important
milestones. We are only now over the first hurdle, the creation of a quite volatile exit deal if this indeed
remains in place. (The Guardian 2020)

It’s difficult to know if one should write in the past or present due to the ongoing nature of Brexit. For
this reason this study will look at both the series of circumstances that have led to our present situation
(Friedman 2016), and the preparations for one of the biggest milestones yet to come, the UK leaving the
European Union. I won’t be examining the reasons for Brexit. But focus instead on how Brexit was
managed as a change project, and if it had used known change management knowledge and tools,
would there still be the mass split in UK peoples views of Brexit as a process and their feeling of trust
when it comes to the government as their leaders? Even if Change management was implemented
(Government of the United Kingdom 2014), was it effective enough? For the purposes of this case study,
change management is understood as ‘​The process, tools and techniques required to manage the
people side of change in order to achieve a required outcome’ (Prosci).​ I will be relating my
observations to the PCT model from Prosci change management theory, as a way to gage the beginning
risk factors and levels of Brexit as a change project. Alongside this the Adkar change model provides a
great tool for gaging the people side of change, asking if the government's current attitude and
management style truly ignites Awareness and desire to in the very least, conform with the necessities
of change put in place.

Analysis

PCT and ADKAR as tools for the analysis of Brexit

The PCT model is a great tool for both checking the requirements for a successful change and engaging
with the risk factors. It focuses on the interrelationship between the Leadership-sponsor, Project
management, and change management (Steketee 2017).

The project management faced unfathomable scope, assured knock-on effects, the interdependency of
many mini change initiatives that were essential to make the deal for Brexit work (Larson and Elizabeth
Larson 2009). Not to mention the seeming incompetence of many cabinet ministers to stick with the
program as trustworthy sponsors of the Brexit process. (BBC 2016) (Blight 2019).Maybe the reverse is
also true seen from a people perspective, the fact that they could not in good conscience back what is
for many an incomprehensible change, proving them to be just the sort of sponsors we might call on had
the project been a different one. Placing the sponsor situation together with the project management
status on a risk grid, you would soon see that this change is too hot to handle (Appendix 1: PCT & Risk
analysis).

ADKAR stands for Awareness, Desire, Knowledge, Ability and Reinforcement seems if any to be the tool
used by the UK civil service, (Verano 2017) (Hiatt 2006). Brexit is certainly no incremental change that
can be thought out and thoroughly planned, so why has the government apparently treated it as such
(Todd 1999). With the coming of 31st december and the inevitable end of the transition phase, comes
also one of the biggest most radical change transition milestones to date (Center for Brexit studies blog
and Psychogios 2019). We are still inextricably in the middle of Brexit, which will take years to actually
be complete. Whether the change fatigued British people are really aware of this is a matter of great
concern. Why has the government not given more attention to engaging with its people's status quo?
And, where have awareness and desire building projects lost their way?

To answer these questions, I would like to utilize the awareness and desire part of ADKAR along with the
PCT model in bringing special focus to the way the first major milestone was reached, namely the
creation of a deal with the EU. After this the preparations for the next big milestone where the UK
becomes independent on the 1st january 2021.

The events to date and the outward impact these have on Brexit’s overall risk and
change adoption.

It’s apparent that Brexit was started before the UK people, businesses and governments had sufficient
awareness of what this change would entail, and the question of did they understand enough to desire
such a change wholeheartedly arises? (Clifton 2017). Ok, we don’t need to be in love with change
(Change Quest), but ‘we’ do need to get behind it on a deeper intrinsic level if it's going to be a success.
It is not a dying battle as there are in fact many simple methods and tools out there with proven effect
(Prosci) (Buklaha Phd. 2014) (Arnold 2015). A good question to begin with is: why have Change
management at all? After all we have been managing for years without this relatively new profession?

Properly applied change management increases the success of key performance indicators (KPIs), it
minimizes risk associated with change, and ‘increases the focus on the people side of change.’ (Prosci
2016-2018). Furthermore with proper attention, the speed of change adoption is increased, the number
of people who show active and qualitative buy-in are elevated. Much needed when you look at the
proceedings of Brexit to date, the government's low poll ratings when it comes to having the trust of the
UK people and the seeming inability to even consider them. It is clear from the outward appearance at
least, that proper attention to awareness and desire creation weren’t in place. The following statistic
alone should help to shift thinking here, Prosci found through thorough research that ‘93% of projects
with excellent change management met or exceeded project objectives compared to 15% with poor
change management’ (Prosci 2018). One way to prepare for change is a PCT assessment of critical
factors including the ability of the leadership-sponsorship of the proposed project, the project
management considerations and finally the factors affecting change management including ABC (Active
and visible participation, building coalitions and direct communication)performed by the change’s
sponsor. Empowered change management together with active sponsorship and quality project
management go hand in hand for successful organisation outcomes.

Sponsors need to be active and visibly supporting a transformation from beginning until end. Being at
the right level to make key decisions and to have the ability to align other key influential players to move
together towards the common goal of achieving successful change.​ ‘David Cameron's reaction to the
June 2016 referendum outcomes was to resign as PM and ultimately as the future sponsor of the Brexit
change. A referendum that has notable questions about legality, being the actual voice of the people
and legitimacy as the government's foremost reason to begin the process leading to activation of Article
50 (wikipedia). Theresa May was then elected as the new conservative leader and Prime minister. There
were as many as 50 resignations during this time, ‘Many have quit over issues with ​Brexit​ or the ​Prime
Minister’s​ negotiations for her Withdrawal Agreement.’ (Sandhu 2019). This had the effect of further
weakening the change coalition from the sponsorship perspective, namely caused by the number of the
UK peoples preferred senders and influencers leaving. Two ministers of the four who were preparing the
Brexit deal negotiations left the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) only days before
the negotiations with the EU were supposed to start, namely ‘David Jones was sacked, the other, George
Bridges resigned (Verano 2017). May's own resignation and replacement by Boris Johnson marks the
end of a tumultuous period where possible sponsor after sponsor and those with visible leadership roles
were leaving (Usherwood 2018). Without a good sponsor a change project is almost doomed to fail.
With figures like ‘“80 percent of the projects with active sponsors reported a success rate of 75 per cent,
which is much higher than the average”. (Association for project management and Samphire 2017),
what would happen to one without this vital part of the PCT puzzle?

There is already an established norm for project management in the UK, some would say pretty rigid but
for most it's got some very clear principles, themes and project tolerance that define project
management best practices. ’The U.K.'s plan to leave the EU falls short on at least five of nine of these
characteristics of good project management’​ (CIO Netherlands and CIO: Netherlands 2016)​. ‘The UK
government in the 1980s demanded a solution to common project problems. They were struggling to
deliver on time, under budget, within scope and up to quality.’ (Prince2.com 2017), leading to the
creation of the Prince 2 project management system, that added two additional project tolerances of
risk and benefits. Relating the six Prince 2 tolerances to Brexit as a radical change with unknown scope,
timeframe, high risks due to the first 2 factors, a lack of change impact management and learning from
past experiences (one of 7 underlying themes), it’s not clear what they were thinking activating Article
50. If we delve a little deeper into just one of these topics of scope, we see already the uniqueness of
the situation, the political complexity of the UK as a state with all its historical ties. We have no idea
what success looks like. Is being free of the European Union, one of the original selling points, enough of
an incentive and vision to create a clear project goal with duration? Is the form of an extremely large
program of interconnecting complex projects without actual possibility of clear project scope a more apt
description of Brexit? Following the first proposal, the Brexit project will finish 1st January. Taking the
second proposal, this date marks the start of the most major change to come and defines the very real
fact that Brexit is not over on 1st January 2021. Coming back to the PCT score for this aspect, if
speculated, it would be considerably low outcome score for project management.

The Change management aspect of the PCT model supports the Sponsor, working closely with both the
Sponsor and the project manager to engage the hearts and minds of the people. In the case of Brexit we
are not talking about 1 or 100 people but millions. Many unsuccessful change projects have
underestimated the importance of a handful of people, what happens when you forget a nation?
‘Scottish Ministers have consistently highlighted that the UK Government has failed to engage
meaningfully with the Scottish Government since Article 50 was triggered in March 2017’ -
mygov.scot/brexit (Scottish Government 2018). More than two thirds of the British public feel they are
not represented by the main political parties, according to a new report on the divisions caused by
Brexit (Stubley 2019). 44% in U.K. approve of EU leadership, up from 37% pre-Brexit vote (Ryan and
Reinhart 2018) Gallup survey, (What UK Thinks 2020), (What UK thinks 2020). This is just a taste of many
polls, newspaper opinion articles and affected stakeholder websites highlighting issues of trust when it
comes to the Uk governments management and leadership. You don’t need to dig to find a 1000 more.
With the obvious disenchantment of the Uk people toward Brexit, it would seem that there was no
sufficient change management implemented to bring the Uk people onboard with this change.

If we come back to ADKAR and make an assessment of where the people have been through the Brexit
process so far, I would put my money on them being stuck somewhere between Awareness and desire.
Awareness is questionable because of the perceived lack of true information when it came to the
consequences of voting to leave or remain. What were people actually voting on and who had informed
this decision? BMG’s poll revealed by the Guardian showed ‘Only 22% in their penultimate survey
thought they understood what they were voting on “well or very well.’ (Preston 2016). In the Uk a
referendum result cannot legally bind the government to action, instead it's closer to an indication
(dependent on voter turnout) of the peoples wish. After the surprise referendum result, it became
unmistakably that people didn’t know what they had voted for and the reasons why. This was the
moment when true discussions began and clear answers were beginning to be found. So why then did
the government sell or more like push Brexit as a ‘must’ end result onto this somewhat questionable
democratic process? They went on to pin all the hopes and peoples focus on article 50, leaving the EU
and with a deal, a supposed end to what the referendum had started. But the deal is in actual fact a
minor milestone in the change and one that was already grossly underestimated to the point of
desperate deal making (Davison 2019) (Withers 2020) (Payne 2019). Desire is certainly reached by a
small minority who have for a longer time wanted independence from the EU, but for those less
intrinsically opinionated I would question how we can build desire for something we don’t understand,
also when we don’t have a realistic awareness of it. Missing the end project vision and clear path to get
there, makes anything more than a visiting awareness, a myth. The government needs to address its
people and show them a tangible vision and the road to get there (Johnston 2014).

The impending end of transition, re-engaging a change weary people

A lot has preceded the turmoil created by what some view as the beginning of Brexit, an undemocratic
referendum (The BBC 2016) (Morris 2018) (Green et al. 2016) (Bernard and Johns 2020) (Kroger 2018).
Even UKIP have gone back on previous push for Uk freedom (Klein and Pirro 2020), Labour and the
conservatives have people supporting both voting possibilities of the 2016 referendum. Leaving the
people undecided about which party will now lead them in the direction they are wishing for, so they
are looking for other solutions. Then in October 2019 an eventual deal was made that came into force
on 31 January 2020, with a transition period of 10 months. Soon after this, UK leaders had the added
complication of Covid-19’s arrival. We are now reaching the end of the transition period, the question
comes of what now?

When you take into account the mistrust formed by repeated misinformation, unreadiness (O'Carroll
2020, #) (Clifton 2017 ) by the UK Government to effectively take next steps to achieve the originally
stated Brexit vision (Emily 2019) and the changing Uk leadership, it’s understandable that the people are
change weary (Wooding 2018) (Ciriano 2016). Not to mention the feelings of some that the somewhat
ambiguous results of the referendum have been blown into full on Brexit proportions, while the people's
actual reasons for voting go unnoticed once again. The Guardian quoted Rasmus Kleis Nielsen, the
institute’s director, as saying: “I have never in 10 years of research in this area seen a drop in trust like
what we have seen for the UK government in the course of six weeks.” - (Bar 2020). It has also seen an
increase in the proportion of the public feeling pessimistic about the future – with very few believing
that Brexit will address the frustrations and inequalities that lay behind the vote to leave the EU in 2016’
(Stubley 2019). Add to this the increased opinions over EU leadership, you get a sense that anything is
better than the Uk government in current opinion (Gallop 2018). Basically the people need to be
engaged with a down-to-earth image of what the nearby realistic future will look like, with no sugar
coating if the people are going to learn to trust again. They need to be properly informed so that desire
can build into knowledge (Serrat 2016) and ability on the ADKAR roadmap to success.

Kotter in his 8-step change model identifies the need for creating urgency in company’s when dealing
with change. While the UK is not as company as such, the concepts that John Kotter has developed are
extremely relevant. But one more urgent call to battle will get lost in all the others that have been and
are still being called right now. But there's an interesting twist to Kotter statement, he doesn’t create an
urgent situation for the sake of it, but as a way to combat complacency (Kotter 2012), without
complacency, urgency would be of little importance. It is suggested that we should look to finding a
solution for complacency instead of creating yet more urgency, better yet what about creating
excitement for this new independent UK as a motivation?

The British people are so full of distrust, change fatigue and worry about very real impending problems
that affect everyday life as they know it. Things like sovereignty and immigration were high up on the list
for leave votes during the referendum (Carl 2018). But the covid-19 situation complicates this and many
people are returning to the basics of income, food and shelter (Nagarajan 2020). With these things in
mind, they have grown complacent to the change that is Brexit. An ever growing beast now out of its
cage, that demands attention, something we need to do if we are going to mitigate still further
impending disaster not so far down the road. Engaging with peoples complacency through
communications that utilize peoples trusted speakers and politicians is a very good way to wake them
up to further needs than just just the basics. Maybe time to bring back some of those who resigned over
Mays deals making process. Who are the peoples preferred senders and what is it that they need
communicated? How can vision be clearly presented when so much can influence such a complicated
change? The government will always be at risk if the presented vision becomes too clear. What are the
important milestones on the road ahead, that also give possibility of celebration when reached.
Important for the releasing of tension and mutual feeling of achievement and trust building. Will the
government come on board with the Uk peoples need for awareness and desire creation on time?
Sadly the government still doesn’t seem to see the people much more than cattle to be herded at this
point. Replacing the less than successful ‘Get ready for Brexit’ communications campaign for the new
‘Check, change and go’ (Jack 2020) (Vizard 2020). Personally I would be asking where the government is
on the ADKAR roadmap versus their people, who seem dangerously lagging behind the lack of
awareness and desire blockades. But the change milestone of 31st December is rapidly approaching, a
milestone that will mark the start of one of the biggest change transitions to come, an independent
United Kingdom.

Discussion​:

The sheer scale and complexity of the radical Brexit program, the fact that so much has already
happened and the consequences of this on the people's awareness and desire, makes finding a solution
more akin to damage control. After all, Brexit is now on a road to inevitable completion of some kind. It
renders a number of previously available options unviable. Bearing in mind that change management
like project management and good sponsorship should be present from day one, I think this is an apt
description of the situation (Brenig-Jones). We are only a little way into one of the biggest changes the
UK has seen in 50 years, and the full implications of invoking Artikel 50 are still very much unknown
(Black 2019).

One of the major problems put succinctly is that the government has lost the trust of other local
governments, companies and the people. A referendum was undemocratically pushing Brexit onto the
political agenda, without real awareness of what the people actually wanted. Some say this was more in
the realms of complaining about an older brother (the EU), while actually wanting to see localised
changes like better housing, better infrastructure and business growth. Things not engaged with by the
Government, instead Brexit is invoked, an action that detrimentally affects these areas of life and is in
actual fact far more outreaching than first promoted. How far yet we don’t know, because we are still
living through the change. Brexit as a project has not been well enough understood or planned before
embarking on a historically unknown type of change. Without definition of its scope as a super program
of many complex and interconnecting project management cases, it is doomed to lose its vision and
through this its ability of fulfillment. But what change management measures would I implement to halt
the present course and bring it around to fruition?
My first proposal would be to assess the current situation, getting clarity about where we have come
from and what are the possible paths to our vision as we have it now. This information would then be
used to create and train a suitable sponsor of the change, a preferred sender for the people, who will
advocate for honesty and open two way communication. Who would further bring about them, still
more influential leaders who would put their neck out for the people, including a good check of those
who resigned during May’s time. A shake up of the current project management in terms of updating
ideas and orient them toward better people practices as a basic way of going forward. Establish a
change management team or empower a present one, giving definition to the programs and projects of
Brexit within the Prince 2 framework would shortly follow.

Checking in on scope, and adding more agile continuous improvement practices (Bohl 2019). Agile is
very compatible with the current Prince 2 project management method and opens a whole world of new
techniques to engage people in transformation. Everything from the Gemba walk, bottom up solutions,
to the continuous improvement mentality that lies at its core. The reason for this is we are sitting in a
time of many changes, big and small. It's better to invest in getting people used to this fact, than
pretending that the next project within Brexit will be the last one. People's energy and time is better
spent on awareness and desire creation than helpless feelings created by butting their heads against a
change they don’t understand or want. Agile in it’s practical setup produces natural incremental changes
that can be better managed than radical ones. During this methodical process there is an ability to adapt
to new needs and situations. Much of the next steps of Brexit are unknown and flexibility will be a prized
possession amongst project managers in this time.

The change manager would reinforce the sponsor, giving these successful mini steps to the sponsor,
who would in turn give them to the people in the form of celebration and sign of tangible success.
Showing them what we are capable of if we engage with change. Lastly in terms of the PCT model, it
would be important to establish the change management as having equal influence to that of the
sponsor and project management. Owning the role of coach from the start of this new phase. The
implementer of knowledge, ability and finally reinforcement as the change projects evolve toward
completion and the Brexit program continues on. I can imagine that the government had a somewhat
marginalized change management who had to get with the programme. The Uk has a long history of
thought out project management but like with many institutions, the awareness of what properly
managed change can do for them is still a question they are not sure is worth answering. I hope after
reading this case study there is at least a spark of interest in a fast growing, research and method
supported profession.

ADKAR is a simple but powerful universal tool. It can be used to gage the sentiment of one person or a
nation, a team of people on the work floor and the sponsor at the top level needing to realise their own
motivations. It brings awareness about where we are now, where the blockage is and what can be done
about it. Addressing the peoples awareness and ability to create desire will help with the speed of
change adoption, not to mention how many people buy into this process and the proficiency with which
they take part. This in turn helps bring back project scope to measurable proportions and lessens the
time taken to reach each milestone talked about above. ADKAR in the end is a philosophy and a means
to very real practical analysis. There are some very realistic chances of a better than expected outcome
if you couple this with a well thought out PCT triangle and a sponsor who speaks the language of the
people. There are many more of these tools available out there. ADKAR, the PCT model and even the
briefly mentioned theories of John Kotter lend themselves to thoroughly planned, measurable and
successful change management projects.

I suspect like most people driven processes, the Uk will get through this. They are in the end a people
who seem to thrive on adversity, like a fire needing fuel (West 2018) or Winston Churchil waking up
politically during world war 2 (Sandy's 2015). This mentality lives in the design of their political system,
the reliance of the judicial system on precedent, against immigration but also for it when immigrants do
the jobs the British don’t want themselves but need done. Better yet once burned get the chance to
dramatically fly out of the ashes like some mythical bird. Mythical terminology aside, without change the
phoenix won’t rise. I advocate for a properly managed Brexit, by those who have the ability to make it
S.M.A.R.T.

Conclusion

Summing up, I believe the British people are in the midst of a change that was at the very least,
prematurely started. The founding reasons are also too shaky to persuade people that Brexit is a good
idea when the going gets tough, desire on the ADKAR scale is replaced by scepticism and mistrust. Thus
creating a tall order for any change manager and team. This is not a change project that can be stopped
or reverted, at least not easily. The government's brashness in triggering article 50 has created a do or
die situation. Corona makes this situation both more complicated and takes the pressure exerted by the
British people off the government, as they focus in a sort of survival mode. Levels of complacency,
mistrust and misinformation amongst the people mean that in my opinion, things will have to get worse
before they get better. In conclusion, my opening statement underestimated the sheer craziness of
starting such an action as Brexit. Empowered and on time change management, well planned project
management, and clarity of the goal that was to be achieved and promoted by our prime minister and
sponsor would certainly have made a huge impact. In the worst case scenario this would allow those
involved to truly engage the people in Brexit, and best case, to not have started it at all. In any case not
without the deep and thorough planning this unprecedented level of change deserves. Change
management could have and can still make a huge difference here, it must never be too late to focus on
the people side of change.

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