2/14/2019 POLL: Arizona Senate 2020 Matchups | OH Predictive Insights

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POLL: Arizona Senate 2020 Matchups

by Haylye Plaster | Feb 14, 2019 | Press Releases | 0 comments

            FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                Feb.

14th, 2019    
                             McSally Holds Early Lead in Competitive
Race

                 Mark Kelly Keeps the Senate Close as Democratic

Contenders                         Have Low Name ID

PHOENIX (Feb 14th, 2019) –Senator Martha McSally is

defending her seat in the upcoming 2020 cycle early polling
shows that she currently holds an edge over her two likeliest
contenders, though she is under the 50% threshold in each
matchup.

While Mark Kelly is the only declared Democrat for the Arizona
Senate, there is heavy speculation that Ruben Gallego will also
declare.

“Kelly outperforms Gallego in several key areas meanwhile

electoral problems for McSally continue to persist, ” said Mike
Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-
based research company OH Predictive Insights. “Arizona’s

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most recent Senate race was a barn burner and with this early
look we may be in for another.”

The survey was conducted February 12 and February 13, with a

sample of 600 respondents quali ed as likely voters. A Blended
Live/Auto caller survey with 47% cell and 53% landline were
used to collect the sample, yielding a +/-4% MOE.

Senator McSally leads astronaut Mark Kelly in a head-to-head

by 2 points, 46% to 44%. Kelly recently announced his bid for
the o ce and raised over $1 million in the 24 hours following
the release of his campaign video. Congressman Ruben
Gallego tweeted that he was still making up his mind and
would announce his intention soon, and he has been actively
eyeing the seat, however he is 8 points behind McSally as she
leads 49% to 41%.

Martha McSally is still popular overall, with 51% of respondents

having a favorable opinion compared to only 42% of those who
see her unfavorably. Problems that hindered McSally in the
unsuccessful 2018 campaign such as a weakness with older
voters continue to persist, with higher unfavorables at 46%
among those aged 65 and up.  The chart below shows McSally’s
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2/14/2019 POLL: Arizona Senate 2020 Matchups | OH Predictive Insights

favorables and unfavorables by region, and very few

respondents had no opinion.

This is buoyed by a net +31 in the rural areas, though McSally

continues to struggle with only a net +1 in Maricopa, a county
Sinema won by 4 points in 2018. This is a struggle in both head
to head polls, as she trails Mark Kelly by 8% (Kelly leads 49-
41%) and even is down to Gallego by a point (Gallego leads 45-
44%).

Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego aren’t as well known as Kelly

earns high marks with 41% favorable to 21% unfavorable, and
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Gallego at 30% favorable and 23% unfavorable. The chart

below shows this breakdown by region like the McSally chart
above.

Both candidates remain unknown in rural areas, as 51% had no

opinion of Kelly and 59% had no opinion of Gallego. One
reason Kelly outperforms Gallego in the matchup against
McSally is that he is both better known and much better liked
in Pima with a +23% net favorable and 75% name recognition
there, compared to only a net +7% and 37% name ID for
Gallego.

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“There’s still time for the Democratic Senate candidates to

de ne themselves to a large portion of Arizona, though Mark
Kelly starts o in a much better position,” said Noah Rudnick,
senior data analyst at OH Predictive Insights, “This race will be
decided in the upcoming months as Arizonans are exposed to
millions of dollars in voter contact.”

###
Methodology: This blended poll was conducted via 47% cell
and 53% landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive
Insights on February 12, 2019 and February 13, 2019, from an
Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample
demographics accurately re ected party a liation, gender,
region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys,
with a MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to
rounding. Poll report for the General Election poll can be
viewed here.

Media Contact:  Mike Noble, OH Predictive

Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, 480-313-1837

About OH Predictive Insights

Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling,

focus groups, data analytics and advanced targeted marketing
to political and non-political clients alike. With leading
professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and
political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and
non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key

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stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please

call 602-254-5159 or submit a request online.

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