Analyzing a complex problem

by using an issue tree

When we think strategically, questions often seem to crowd in

all at once. Finding the answers is all the more difficult because
the answers are usually interdependent. How can you cover
everything without unnecessary repetition? This is the aim of the
issue tree. Used in many consultancy firms, this method helps
you structure your thoughts and quickly establish a hierarchy of
strategic issues and objectives. So what does it involve?

What is an issue tree?

• An issue tree is a method of analyzing complex problems.
• This method is based on progressively breaking down or building up a given problem into main issues and
sub-issues, and so on.
• Building an issue tree can help you to understand a problem and prioritize your ideas according to logical
criteria, thereby facilitating analysis and decision-making.
There are 2 ways of building an issue tree
• Bottom-up or inductive logic
In this case, you go from specific to general, from satellite issues up to central issues.
• Top-down or deductive logic
In this case, you go from general to specific, from central issues down to satellite issues.

Level n Level n - 1 Level n - 2 Level n - 3 Level n - 4

Level Level
n-1 n-3
argument Level argument
n-2
argument Level
n-3
argument
Level
Level n-2 Level
Problem n-1 argument n-3
raised argument argument
Level Level
n-2 n-3
argument argument
Level Level Level
n-1 Level n-3 n-4
argument n-2 argument argument
argument

Bottom-up logic: from specific to general

Top-down logic: from general to specific

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Building an issue tree
Step 1: Write all your ideas down on sticky notes
• Write all your ideas down on sticky notes (one idea per note) and stick them on the wall. This will give you
a better overview of the problem.
• Concentrate on the main issue that stands out among all the notes you've assembled. Rather than focusing
on the various solutions there might be, think carefully about the central issue.

Step 2: Arrange the ideas in a “mutually exclusive” way (ME principle)

• Not all ideas have the same status; there are often causal links between them. Some ideas are just the
consequences of other ideas, following on from them in a logical manner.
• It's up to you to put each idea at the right level.
- The least important idea might be at level n - 3, while the idea it depends on is at level n - 2, and so on
until you get to the top of the tree, the most generic level on which all the others depend.
- The top level represents the actual problem: level n.
• Each lower-ranked idea should be linked to a single idea at the next level up.
This is the first key principle of complex issue analysis: the “ME” (mutually exclusive) principle.
All the hypotheses you come up with must be mutually exclusive.

Step 3: Make sure ideas at each level have equivalent status

• The different ideas at a given level of the issue tree should have the same degree of importance.
• To achieve this, you may have to create new sticky notes, for example, taking ideas shown on separate notes
at level n - 1 and grouping them together at level n.
Each idea at each level should express the ideas it groups together, and ideas grouped together in this way
should always be related.

Step 4: Check that the ideas are “collectively exhaustive” (CE principle)
• After “ME”, the second key principle of the issue tree is “CE” or “collectively exhaustive”: all possible ideas
should have been put forward at each level. In other words, all avenues must have been thoroughly explored.
Check that you have thought of all the possible arguments at each level.
• If necessary, fill in the blanks with new arguments you hadn't initially identified, but which must be taken into
account for the analysis to be exhaustive.

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Any reproduction or representation for non-private use is strictly forbidden. 2