Playbook For Strategic Foresight and Innovation

Playbook
FOR STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT AND
Innovation
A hands-on guide for modeling,
designing, and leading your
company's next radical innovation
1
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
Playbook Sponsors Research Partners

Development Team
Tamara Carleton
William Cockayne
art coordination
Graphic design and layout

Anna Raikkonen
2
Playbook overview
Welcome to a guide for the How to use it
strategic manager, the person
who is responsible for innovation—
next market, describing the

future customer, or developing an
amazing team who can reliably take new Strategic focus
visions to new markets.
Benefit to you
3
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1. The Foresight Framework 9 Chapter 5. Solution 127
We introduce a comprehensive framework that The White Spots, Paper Mockups, and Change
Path methods turn your idea into
idea. a tangible artifact and plan.
Chapter 2. How to Start 29 Chapter 6. Team 171

Discover the different types of innovation The Buddy Checks, VOICE Stars, and Crowd
paths, people, and industry contexts to help
you start in the right place with the right and keep the right people engaged in your
mindset. pursuit of radical innovation.
Chapter 3. Perspective 57 Chapter 7. Vision 207

The Context Map, Progression Curves, and The Vision Statement, DARPA Hard Test,
Janus Cones methods broaden your view
of the problem space, helping you to better organizational vision to direct your team’s
anticipate the future. efforts.
Chapter 4. Opportunity 93 Appendix 249

The Generational Arcs, Future User, and Supporting material includes a list of readings,
Futuretelling methods identify your future suggested data sources, and other related
customers in terms of macro, micro, and items.
narrative views.
4
METHOD SHORTCUTS
PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
5
Playbook for
Strategic Foresight
and Innovation
A variety of case studies

Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how various
organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning.
FUTURE VISION 10 WORKSHOP A SECOND FUTURE HOW YLE DEFINED SEEKING

FOR PAPER LESSONS FROM FOR UBICOM A NEW FORESIGHT VISIONARIES
AN INDUSTRY CAPABILITY AT DARPA
VETERAN
PROGRAM DARPA’S LESSONS TECHNOLOGY THE HEILMEIER THE ORIGINAL

MANAGERS AT DARPA FOR INDUSTRY VISIONS AT DARPA CATECHISM AT DARPA VISION OF EPCOT
6
How to use the playbook Insights
The playbook adopts two simple schemas to help you follow the material
Drawing insights &
implications
types of content. The second schema applies to each method’s presentation. 65
Overview Tips
Context Maps
WhEN to use it What you get Tips & lessons from others
research
WhY it’s helpful
REFLECTION
What is the proposed topic?
Why do you want to pursue it?
61 67
Example Photos
Let’s look at an example Additional examples
IDEAL ORIGINALS MISSING

CITY
>
>
A major consumer electronics company used a An American police force considered how
decreasing state funds would impact a range of
62 68
Instructions CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet

Template
Instructions
1. Agree on a broad topic or annotated example. The numbers in
opportunity area your team
wants to pursue. You set the scale numbers in the diagram.
of topic. Very broad topics may
2. Draw an outline for a Context Map

or use the worksheet template in
the playbook.
3. Start talking with your team about
dimensions as they arise. Points

of intense discussion or even
disagreement are good to include
in your Context Map.
4.
around your Context Map. At
5.
arrives at a map (or set of maps)
that captures your problem space
63 69
© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton
7
Peter Drucker
Arthur C. Clarke
FORESIGHT FRAMEwork
ChaptER 1
Shortcuts
Foresight Framework 10
Five planning phases 11
Two guiding principles 14
The methodology 15
Underlying theories 18
An integrated system 21
Case study: Paper 24

The Foresight Framework
What do you need to do
to plan your next big idea?
10
Five planning phases
The Foresight Framework is composed Phase I: Perspective
planning and action.

Phase IV: Team
Phase II: Opportunity
Phase V: Vision
Phase III: Solution
11
12
The ambiguity curve
Where would you put yourself

on the Ambiguity Curve?
A
v
13
Two guiding principles
Principle #1 Principle #2
What you foresee You can’t put off
is what you get tomorrow
14
The methodology
PHASE I: PERSPECTIVE PHASE II: OPPORTUNITY
15
PHASE III: SOLUTION
PHASE IV: TEAM
Prototype
16
PHASE V: VISION
DARPA
17
Underlying theories
DARPA
20
An integrated system
21
©
22
23
CASE STUDY | Future vision for paper
How should my team begin?
How do we introduce new

methods in radical
innovation?
24
How can we set the right
focus and still embrace
ambiguity?
25
How do we restart if our
first group discussions are
uninspiring?
26
How can we turn
experiences into lessons?
27
Buddha
Robert Collier
HOW TO START
ChaptER 2
Shortcuts
Let’s start with questions 30 Sample problems 42
Why a playbook 31 Learning process 44
34 46
Finding inspiration 35 Starting midway 48
Types of growth 36 Teams or alone 50
Who leads change 38 Finding data 51
Which industries 40 Case study: 10 lessons 52
Viewpoint: Revisionist 41
Let’s start with questions
With the basic framework in mind, how
should you begin approaching your
group's innovation process?
30
Why a playbook?
31
se This Playbook
Reasons Not to U
10 3. The playbook does
not know your problem.
4. You will make yourself

and others uncomfortable.
2. Using this playbook is

hard work.
1. You will not find a single
ready-to-use idea. 5. There is no guaranteed
success in radical
innovation.
32
6. This playbook won’t 9. It won’t help you predict
provide a quick fix. the future.
Which reasons(s) resonated

most with you? Why?
10. You can’t cheat at

7. It is lengthy. innovation.
8. Some academics were

involved.
33
What definitions are we using?
Strategic foresight Innovation
Radical innovation
34
Where do we find inspiration?
Where should we look for ideas?
simple places. >

>
Organizational start >
>
External start >

>
>
>
>
>
>
Internal start >
>
>
>
>
Common >
>
>
>
35
What type of growth do we seek?
What do you see as the most rational New growth

path to innovation? What does your
leadership team believe?
Emerging growth
Core growth Which growth path does your

work focus most on? Why?
36
37
Who leads change in innovation?
Multiple innovation roles—or what you
might call personality types—coexist
within an organization at any given time.
Which contexts or industries work best?
This playbook can be applied easily
to different types of organizations and
contexts.
Type of organization
Industry sector Company size
40
VIEWPOINT | Revisionist thinking
Country and culture I am a social scientist in Finland, and value in rapid learning cycles, at the
our usual Scandinavian planning same time, this approach creates a
principle is to plan rigorously and headache for Finns who have already
execute once. After working with settled contentedly and deliberately
several American colleagues from
Silicon Valley, I have discovered As we work with more foreign
an unexpected difference in their innovators, Finnish managers should
approach to problem-solving. be exposed earlier to other ways of
In Silicon Valley, they tend to working—ultimately leading to better
harmony and making iteration a
execute again. While I can see the welcome part of our planning process.
41
What types of problems are addressed?
What types of problems are other International paper Software developer
companies and innovation managers producer
addressing with the methods in this
playbook?
National media company Training service provider
Global forestry company
42
Marketing department Strategic R&D consortium National IT company
Federal governmental International steel

agency company
43
What is the learning process?
11
12
13 14
15
16
10
8 9
5
4
3
1
2
44
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
45
Can we start with a specific objective?
46
47
Where do we start midway in a project?
Instructions
Scoring
Should we work in teams or alone?
The short answer is both. Using methods in teams Optimal group size
All the methods can be used
independently or within groups.
Using methods alone
50
Where can we find credible data?
What are your usual top
Why?
51
CASE STUDY | 10 workshop lessons from an industry veteran
Planning with foresight The advantage of
workshops
52
Lesson 1: Maximize
participant diversity
Lesson 4: Frame the

opportunities to be eXplored
Lesson 3: Assign light

pre-work
Lesson 2: Divide people

into smaller teams
53
Lesson 5: Lesson 7:
Prepare simple examples Follow the process
Lesson 9: Encourage
experimentation and
iteration
Lesson 6:
Apply real-world data
Lesson 8: Allow time to
reflect and recharge
54
Lesson 10: Sustain the
momentum of the workshop
55
Gary Hamel C. K. Prahalad
PERSPECTIVE
ChaptER 3
Shortcuts
Phase I: Perspective 58
Context Maps 60
Progression Curves 70
Case study: Ubicom 78
Janus Cones 82
Phase I: Perspective
Have you ever spent time in a meeting
and after 30 minutes, realized the
group should have discussed what has
happened before in your organization,
let alone industry? Or wondered when
the brainstorm you’re in will ever
converge to the main points?
PHASE I: PERSPECTIVE
this phase:
Context Maps
Context Maps capture the themes WhEN to use it What you get
that emerge when discussing complex
problems.
WhY it’s helpful
60
Let’s look at an example
>
>
61
Instructions
62
3. As we talk, we not
e
the biggest themes in
Hall’s report, as one
e e t h at we theme per dimension
e agr ow
1. W ant to kn e
w n
first perts defi ure
x ut
how e y of the f
t
the ci
e n s k etch the
h
2. We t ne, which
li
tool out a big flower
ke 4. A team m
looks li t “petals” em
h captures rela ber
with eig ted points
near certain
themes,
so we don’t
forget our
dialogue late
r
63
Drawing insights &
implications
64
We real
iz
driven e a blend of da
and lif
driven estyle- ta-
elemen
perfect ts defin
city ea
of
As a variation
anged
the tool, we ch
nd
the backgrou
color of each
hich
dimension, w
rying
could show va
ted
levels of expec
change
65
Tips & lessons from others
What is the proposed topic?

Why do you want to pursue it?
66
Additional examples
67
CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet
©
y n o t e s :
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Progression Curves
Progression Curves represent the WhEn to use it
evolution of changes in terms of
WhY it’s helpful
What you get
70
71
Instructions
72
ts from history,
4. I add more data poin
nt to continue
realizing that I will wa
ring the course of
extending this curve du
1. After reviewing my my research program
Context Map, I decide to
look at the evolution of
interactive touchscreens
for my first Progression
Curve
3. I keep my
first pass
simple, notin
g major
developments
and dates
that help me u
line quickly, nderstand
2. I draw a wavy how the field
n ow in g th at I ca n always extend has
k developed
rmat later.
an end point or fo
73
Drawing insights & Tips & lessons from others
implications
Who are some experts you

can ask for their wisdom?
74
helps me
This method
t expert of
become a fas
owing me
this topic, all
entify the
to quickly id
s in the
major player
ent points
field at differ
my
able to refine
Overall, I am d ing potential
o n s fo r fi n
questi c
tions in roboti
future applica
surgery
75
Additional examples
76
PROGRESSION CURVES | method worksheet
©
CASE STUDY | Crafting a new vision after Ubicom
The challenge: Following

the steps of a successful
research program
The approach: Two days of
expert prototyping
The result:
A new vision, a new program
Janus Cones
Janus Cones looks backwards and WhEn to use it
forwards in time to identify the timing of
historical events and how timing affects
potential future events.
WhY it’s helpful
What you get

Mobility as a
basic need
Dangers of
driving
Urban planners Time spent
traveling in cars Family trips
design for roads
& activities
and transport Variety of
by car
car models Parking is
Car tinkering Multiple cars
an issue
passions Infrastructure in a family
Cars as
displays of funding Traffic jams Different car
Car as a
wealth New paradigm Rush hour Cars by life stage
lifestyle /
of commuting shipped
Concept of status symbol
alone time as luggage
Rising costs of Seat belt
in cars with self
Driving as a rite car ownership safety
or others
of passage campaigns
(first license) Stress of
car buying
Instructions
s on the
1. Our priority is to focu
cone on
past, so we sketch a big
se
the whiteboard with its no
pointing right to today 5. We ad
d more d
so that th ata
e cone fee points
to our tea ls comple
m te
Mobility as a
basic need
Dangers of
driving
design for roads & activities
by car
2. One of the first Cars as Car tinkering Multiple cars
an issue
comments is about displays of funding Traffic jams Different car

Car as a
Ford’s assembly line,

lifestyle /
which led to a
in cars with self
or others
of passage
consumer choice
campaigns
to help
car buying
c o n e
in cars, so we note this a
ss t h e
rcs acro time increment
s
r t i c a l
historical point raw ve these
4. We d data points by
somewhere far left er
us clust
inside the cone
3. After a few more data points, we see the
timeframe emerge, so we note the major time
periods in 20-year increments under the cone
Drawing insights &
implications
Who remembers the history

We discov
er
d knows th the majority of our
Due to our group’s varie e last 15 y
ears well f
group
personal e
backgrounds, the Janus xpe rom
movies an rience and then re
Cones became a useful d grandp l
arent ane ies on
knowledg
neutral tool to bring us e about th cdotes for
e prior yea
quickly together rs
Mobility as a
basic need
Dangers of
driving
design for roads & activities
by car
Car tinkering Multiple cars
an issue
Cars as
displays of funding Traffic jams Different car
Car as a
lifestyle /
in cars with self
or others
of passage campaigns
car buying
We start to see a pattern about the changing

definition of “premium” in cars, starting with
premium as wealth displays
>
>
Company >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Additional examples
JANUS CONES | method worksheet
©
y n o t e s :
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—John Galsworthy
OPPORTUNITY
ChaptER 4
Shortcuts
Phase II: Opportunity 94
Generational Arcs 96
Future User 105
Viewpoint: Acting out 115
Futuretelling 116
Phase II: Opportunity
Now that you have developed
some perspective about your problem's
opportunity?
PHASE II: OPPORTUNITY
this phase:
Generational Arcs
WhEn to use it
population changes in terms of life
stages and other generational variables.
WhY it’s helpful

What you get
AGE DISTRIBUTION
-table comes here!
Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls “Oxygenz Country Report: Germany”, 2010
Instructions
nk
u r 2. We rely on World Ba
f o c u s on o reports, plus company re
cords,
to
e d ecide primary as our primary data sour
ces
1. W y as the
r
count opulation
tp 3. We dec
targe ide
both today to present
’s data an
the estima d
ted shift i
20 years n
(without
accountin
g
immigrat for any
ion chang
es)
4. We then wr
Source: Work wn
iteBankdodata, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls “Oxygenz Country Report: Germany”, 2010
some characteristic s of
the different generations
Drawing insights &
implications
100
In 20
y
We see our sweet spot in
recent would ears, this sa
dr me ag
customer growth is tied raisin op by nearl eg
’s g som y a qu roup
closely with our country availa ec
ble ma oncerns abo ter,
ar
biggest population rkets i u
n the f t
uture
Part of our group’s discussion

Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls “Oxygenz Country Report: Germany”, 2010
focuses on how our company
could better address changing
generational needs
101
labels in your primary market?
102
Additional examples
103
GENERATIONAL ARCS | method worksheet
AGE DISTRIBUTION
-table comes here!
©
Future User
WhEn to use it
user within a targeted demographic by
comparing similar groups over time.
WhY it’s helpful
What you get
105
106
1996 2008 2020
Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008
107
Instructions
b e o u r primary
c r i age
1. We des day and note his
to
customer
5. We compare and
contrast the two peop
le
at their starting ages
and also at their targ
et
is ages, looking to
W e d i s c uss what h es
2 .
l e , c h o i c e s, and valu understand what ha
s
lifesty g o and how changed (and what
y e a r s a has
were 12 n g ed over tim
e not changed) over ti
a v e c h a me
they h e
w e p i c k t h is timefram for
( les
o R&D cyc
based on tw
ny)
our compa
f r o m o ur earlier 4. The targ

et age of
ng
3. Drawi l research,
we our future
user is the
a t i o n a
gener
r y o u n g future same as as
today’s
ou
describe h e e x ists toda
y customer
a s
customer
Drawing insights &
implications
110
and
nd sers enjoy cricket
e f a mily a Although both u they grew up un
der
l u d s,
sers va eir lives shop fo re ig n br an
Both u th io n s in India—which
ion in differe n t co n d it
educat ctations about th
e
affects their expe
y , g ov er n m en t, and industry
econom
By drawing
from real pe
we build a r ople,
ealistic pers
for a future ona
user that ca
drive our R& n
D planning
111
112
Additional examples
113
FUTURE USER | method worksheet
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
__________________________
114
VIEWPOINT | Acting out for the Finns
as a Finn.” The classic Finnish

stereotype is someone who is playing. We have to identify with
national characteristic is of polite
business seriously and expect to react to than a narrative could, so
way we present ourselves. becomes much richer and more
may challenge that comfort zone.

In particular, the FutureTelling that can be learned. While I probably
and group role-playing. Like most

something new, I can make it
The FutureTelling method can

many insights that acting out in
new ideas—that may help all of us

communicate an idea to another
about what is right and what is true.
115
Futuretelling
Futuretelling are short and dramatic When to use it
performances that illustrate a particular
user need as a scene from the future.
This is active storytelling at its best.
Why it’s helpful
What you get
116
Source: William Cockayne, 2008
117
Instructions
1. We decide to show the 5-6. We used simple
props,
cal
doctor performing a criti such as giant paper
scalpel,
surgery on the battlefield. to help add some hum
or to
our storytelling.
3-4. E
v
the pa eryone, incl
tie ud
to say nt, had som ing
t e
impor hat conveye lines
tance
portab of usi d the
le ener ng
gy ge a
nerato
r.
2. Our story
s:
had four role
ical
a doctor, med
tient,
assistant, pa
ldier.
and fellow so
Drawing insights &
implications
120
y
r o l e to pla
a
r y o n e had n, and it
Eve
p r o d uctio a team
in the us more as
d
unite Once our audience
saw—instead of
hearing us describe
—the user’s need
in context, they be
gan to understand
the critical value of
our opportunity
e
a i n e d mor
We g y for the
th nd
empa ituation, a
s ns
user’s sign begi
de g
good erstandin
d ds
by un uman nee
h
basic
121
When do you see live

storytelling used in your
What makes it work?
122
Additional examples
123
FUTURETELLING | METHOD WORKSHEET
Describe your future user in one

sentence or less. What does
your user care about most?
What do you want your

audience to understand about
future? Keep it to a simple

scene or two, if possible.
What other people (or objects)

will your user interact with in
How do you want the audience

to respond at the end of the
©
y n o t e s :
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—Walt Disney
SOLUTION
ChaptER 5
Shortcuts
Phase III: Solution 128
White Spots 130
Paper Mockups 140
Dark Horse Prototype 150
Change Paths 154
Case study: Yle 164

Phase III: Solution
The third phase in the Foresight
Framework brings you to a solution.
your industry, users, organization, and

individual skills.
PHASE III: SOLUTION
this phase:
White Spots
White Spots is a strategic method for WHY IT'S HELPFUL
by two salient issues.
WHEN TO USE IT
What you get
130
131
Instructions
132
5. I iden
ti
g example fy an extreme
rawin
1. I start by d fo
corner t r each quadran
o pretes
a big cross t the ma t’s
trix
6. I add
many
examples
on the
2-3. I pic
k matrix,
utility a cost and using
s the top
dimensi two arrows to
ons from
previous my show
Context
to create Maps movement
my two
axes
ne white spot tart simply

7-9. I mark o 4. I decide to s
hat could with military
and
and ponder w
ist today dpoints for
realistically ex civilian as en
stry vision a in st high and
as a new indu u ti li ty a g
Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009 low cost
133
Drawing insights &
implications
134
Although I develope
h is 2 x 2 v is ual helped a Progression Curv
d
T
plex story e
me tell a com of flying cars from
arket
about the m the movies and
and
opportunity books, I focus on
o m p e ti ti o n in terms of real solutions in
c f
e tw o b ig g est criteria o my White Spots
th
e
cost and us analysis
Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009
135
Before your team picks,

which two dimensions would
you start your analysis with?
Why?
136
Additional examples
137
WHITE SPOTS | method worksheet
©
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Paper Mockups
Paper Mockups asks participants to When to use it

physically model a future system.
Why it’s helpful
What you get
140
Source: Ming-Li Chai, 2008
141
Instructions
142
2-3. We use materia
ls
e nearby to build qu
e to build th ickly,
1. We choos e including string an
m because w d
entire syste colored paper
erstand how
want to und ct
parts intera
the various
4. One of our team

members
sits down to expl
ain our idea
to a group of coll
eagues
143
Drawing insights &
implications
144
ockup in
Just having a physical m
riosity
hand generated intense cu
ally, we
among colleagues—norm
tion
have to fight for their atten
ows
during the usual slidesh
ful, The act of buildin

While sketching is help us understand m
g also helped
a 3D
building our idea into ore about our
ghts target users and
object gave us more insi might react to dif
how they
n idea
into our own innovatio ferent parts
145
How might you embed

paper mockups into your
early market research or
146
Additional examples
147
PAPER MOCKUPS | method worksheet
Feel free to use

this piece of paper
in your mockup.
y n o t e s :
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DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE
A variation of the Paper Mockup, Dark When to use it
Horse prototypes are three-dimensional
physical prototypes that are built to
idea.
Why it’s helpful
What you get
150
Instructions
Drawing insights &

implications
151
We made one d
ramatic yet im
change: by mov portant
ing the string fr
people to the hou om the
ses, we emphasi
social network zed the
(and transfer of
knowledge) am
ong the houses
152
DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE | method worksheet
Tear your previous

Paper Mockup in half.
Discuss.
153
Change Paths
Change Paths are data-driven narratives When to use it
exploring different paths and key
decision points toward possible future
innovations.
Why it’s helpful
What you get
154
155
Instructions
156
nt
in g an d A ir bu s take two differe
1. Boe
s of th e fu tu re : one imagines the
view
at e po in t- to -p oi nt airplane for
ultim
om er s an d th e ot her imagines a
t h e f i r st step cust
ee n major airport hubs
ote li n er be tw
2. We n any can do on luxury
p
each com to action at the
th
their pa e timeline
th
start of
g
a r k t h e two bi 4. Boeing als
3. We m each company and materia
o pursued new
technologies
s r
decision to achieve thei efficiency, w
ls for greater
airplane
ke X
must ta visions with a control—a dec
hich was larg
ely out of thei
ve
respecti the ision they co r
t h e r a l ong on off their path uld have plac
ed
fur
e
timelin
157
Drawing insights &
implications
e
t t h e sam iple,
a lt
a l i z ed th port mu
e p s Both companie
We r e can su , vision s achieved the
r g future they w
futu ompetin anted by
c doing things
even that they
could affect d
irectly
Boeing actua
lly started wit
different visio ha
n that crysta
into the 787. llized
Only in hind
does the future sight
look like a cle
straight path! ar and
take tomorrow to set you on

this future path?
160
Additional examples
161
CHANGE PATHS | method worksheet
162
y n o t e s :
M
CASE STUDY | How YLE defined a new foresight capability
Towards participatory
renewal
Marketplace challenges
164
Heralds of change A map of current practices
A sense of shared
ownership
165
Using stories to
communicate context
166
The importance of
real-world evidence
Profiles of the future

audience
167
Building the prototype
The Four Rooms concept

FROM PROTOTYPE TO VISION
TO ACTION
Bill Taylor
George Bernard Shaw

TEAM
ChaptER 6
Shortcuts
Phase IV: Team 172
Buddy Checks 174
183
Voice Stars 184
Case study: DARPA PMs 193
Crowd Clovers 194
Case study: DARPA lessons 204

Phase IV: Team
You have the start of a great idea.
Now you want to know: how do I
take this idea back to my group?
How can I take it inside my organization,
meaningful action?
Or what if I don’t have a team yet?
What should I do next?
172
PHASE IV: TEAM
this phase:
173
Buddy Checks
Buddy Checks evaluates potential When to use it
new co-founders, partners, and
teammates by showing their
reaction level to new ideas.
Why it’s helpful
What you get
174
6 7
4 5
2 3
175
Instructions
176
rehearsal
3. After some more
d two
u r rough with Anna, we fin
e n t o pect will
teer to pr e s
sse preten
d scenarios that we ex
1. I volun d J e we want
Ann a a n prompt the reaction
idea, and es we kno
w lleague,
c o l l e a g u from our second co
to be two ur efforts as a
h o p e j o i n o who we’d like to join
whom we
group leader
6 7
4 5
t colleague
2. We agree our firs
2 3
4 and 5
sits between levels
action is to
because his first re
am and his
1 volunteer for the te
to suggest
later reactions are
ts to refine
minor improvemen
our raw idea
177
Drawing insights &
implications
1
7
i z e o t h e r s have
We real
n i n s t a nt gut 6 7
a
t o n e w ideas,
reaction
h i c h r e v eals their The extra rehea
rsals lets us
w
f e e l i n g s about 4 5 test a few diff
true erent ways of
along telling our idea
playing to generate
the higher level
reaction—
2 3 instead of sta
rting at a
lower level and
working up
to the reaction
we wanted
from the start
1 of the
interaction
think you sit at most

commonly?
Additional examples
BUDDY CHECKS | method worksheet
6 7
4 5
2 3
©
CASE STUDY | A job posting for DARPA
Are you a scientist or engineer

with a radical idea (or ideas)
that you believe could provide
meaningful change of lasting
Would you like to lead the

country’s most capable
academic and industrial experts
to make that idea become reality
the Defense Advanced Research
program manager.
A DARPA program manager is…

> An idea generator
> A technical expert
> An entrepreneur
> A visionary
> A patriot dedicated to
national service
Source: The Economist magazine, 2008

VOICE Stars
VOICE Stars is a talent diagnostic that When to use it
measures the leadership aptitude for
radical innovation of an individual or team.
Why it’s helpful
What you get

•
•
• •
•
•
• •
Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

Instructions
he
t o d raw t
pi s
r f i r st ste shape
1. Ou ying star
rl 6. We discus
unde s
different acti
vities
our group do
es
that helps fos
ter
a climate for
each
attribute
E
w r i t e a VOIC ach
e e
2-3. W at the end of
te k
attribu a r k five tic
d m line
line an r scoring per
fo
marks
4-5. We take turns scor
ing
ourselves across all the
attributes,
drawing a connecting
line between
individual scores
Drawing insights &
implications
rly
r t e a m is regula
e of o u w we
Only on d w e d i scuss ho
voraciou
s, an
t h e l a t e st news
r
im to hea t for us
rely on h d scan the marke
n
updates a
to
f i n d i t tough e
We
o f e x a mples w
think k e or start
o v o
do to pr ns, which We re
io al
new act good scores ize our tea
a m m
leads to n about being ost high o
n
io c
discuss a c tivities helps urious, wh
e r ex ic
what o t h e all ap plain why h
people w s pr w
an d e v e n
pu new t eciate expl e
o u l d g et to hel opics
an
oring
sh possib
w i n this are
a ilities d
gr o togeth
er
Who do you know that

best exhibits all four
Additional examples
VOICE STARS | method worksheet
©
CASE STUDY | Program Managers at DARPA
The DARPA ethos
The basic profile
Where to find them

Crowd Clovers
Crowd Clovers maps the various related When to use it
components of a personal network
focused on advancing new innovation
ideas.
Why it’s helpful
What you get


Instructions
le who le who grow
p e o p 3. I write the peop
rite th
e
n the ideas with
2. I w me most i e = CONNECTORS and expand our
sources in the
e
provok eaflet (pur
pl access to more re
en = grow)
el
purpl ) green leaflet (gre
e
provok
4. I write
1. I first draw realize o
the peopl
e
the outline fo
ra ur effort who
s and pus
CATALYSTS
us towar
ENABLERS
big four-leaf leaflet (r
d action
in the re
h
clover, using ed = rea
lize)
d
rs
different colo
per leaflet to
signify the 5. I write the
n
network actio peo
broadcast an ple who
y
I desire for m ideas within
d circulate o
ur
unit their networ
in the blue le ks
6. I draw boxes arou aflet (blue =
nd the broadcast)
people whom we rela PROMOTERS
te to
formally (like our
boss and
other division lead
s)
Drawing insights &
implications
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
I see w
form e rely mos
h at we al t
os e e t netwo ties for tw heavily on
eved t the same l r o area
r e l i
I was t rely on
CONNECTORS find k action,
o o p l e for al resou name s of
did n roup of p orts e us to r c ly to
lg ff execu es and to
smal novation e te p ush
our in
CATALYSTS
ENABLERS
f e w people ur
w o
I kno lp promote s to
e u
who h nd expose
a n
ideas etworks, a
n
other ecide to
d r by
area I e this yea
v o
impro a person t PROMOTERS
g er
hirin ur develop
o
build nity
u
comm
Which quadrant would your

colleagues place you in most?
200
Additional examples
201
CROWD CLOVERS | method worksheet
©
y n o t e s :
M
CASE STUDY | DARPA’s lessons for industry
1. Organize by grand
challenge
3. Live the mission
2. Maintain short contracts
204
4. Operate as an open network 7. Keep a short decision chain
6. Sharpen vision at the start
5. Hire for vision
205
Richard N. Foster
King James Bible

VISION
ChaptER 7
Shortcuts
Phase V: Vision 208
Vision Statement 210
Case study: DARPA visions 219
DARPA Hard Test 220
Case study: DARPA criteria 225
Case study: EPCOT vision 234
238
Phase V: VIsion
With a team in place, your next step
is to turn your big idea into a vision
that will excite more people, mobilize
further action, and ultimately secure
funding and support as part of a larger
campaign.
PHASE V: VISION
this phase:
Vision Statement
A Vision Statement provides a short When to use it
vivid description of your idea in order to
inspire, energize, and help others create
a mental picture of your target future
opportunity.
Why it’s helpful
What you get
210
211
Instructions
212
rring back to the
1. We start by refe ensions in
the
e Futuretelling e d im
story we told in th 2. We then
u s e th
w h a t made our
idea. The Dark ps to e x p la in
exercise about our Context Ma .
us focus on what opportunity
Horse method lets idea s u c h a b o ld
innovation.
is essential to our 3. Looking
at the
Janus Con
es help us
understan
d why our
vision sho
uld exist n
ow.
5. We name four e
4. We decide to nam
companies which st
only two popular pa
would be ideal
o examples from our
partners for us, tw
y Progression Curves
of which are alread
analysis to not
working with us rs.
overwhelm our use
on other projects.
e
discuss mor
7. We need to ps from our
tw o b ig s te
which
will show we
ression Change Path
6. The Prog on track to
s h e lp u s estimate are directly
Cur v e big vision.
date. achieve this
a realistic
213
Drawing insights &
implications
214
he
y r e a c ted to t
l r
d i e n c e quick ription of ou
Our au geeky desc emove jargon
nd eded to
r
long a w e n e
, so
vision plify it.
m
and si
r
Once we hooked ou
,
audience’s interest
they wanted to
know what we
at
We also learned th would do next, so
g
people liked hearin our team had some
specific companies, more work to do to
which added more complete the vision
validity to our statement.
crazy idea.
215
Why is your team’s
216
Additional examples
217
VISION STATEMENT | method worksheet
©
CASE STUDY | Technology visions at DARPA
Legged Squad Support System

Photo: Jeff Corwin Photography, Boeing
Augmented Cognition
program
Photo: Boston Dynamics

DARPA Hard Test
Adapted from DARPA, the DARPA
Hard Test describes four qualities of a When to use it
radical innovation vision: far-reaching,
technically challenging, multidisciplinary,
and actionable.
Why it’s helpful
What you get
220
The notion of DARPA Hard
Four vision components
221
222
223
224
Instructions
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
225
he
t h a t b affles t
dea
C. An i am scientific
re
mainst
nity
commu
tu f f o f s c ie nce fiction
D. S
tars
to travel to s
bold
7 A. A contemporary
could
idea that humans
er
6 control nuclear pow
ically
safely and strateg
5
B. A stretch goal that
4 built on previous effort
s
to put a satellite and
3 man into orbit
E. An ambitious goal
2 to
build next generation
1 city services for one
region
226
radical
D. Requires
ts in many
advancemen
m s f r o m li fe-support
syste
lsion to
to ship propu
ring
manufactu
C. No prove
n solution
date that r st
everse or st o
human ag op
ing
7 A. Requires
inventing n
precision tech ew
niques for
6 mass produc
ed explosives
5 B. Difficult problem
without computer aid,
4 drawing on earlier
success of the first
3 Russian cosmonaut
E. Requires the
2
integration of existing
1 pervasive and physical
network infrastructu
res
227
n only be
D. Vision ca cooperation
v e d b y th e
achie
u lt ip le d iv erse groups
of m
cepts
A. Assimilated con
7 l
and leaders from al
d
scientific fields an
6 engineering discip
lines
5 B. Helped create a new

field of aerospace
4 engineering
3 C. Fostering
a new scienti
discipline of fic
geroscience
2
E. Joint coalition betw
een
1 different government
groups, city planners
,
and businesses
al research
C. Biomedic ilable from
ts n o w a v a
gran
ps
several grou
oval
A. President’s appr
d
expedited efforts an
ide
7 funding nation-w
B. Established a new
6
U.S. space agency ca
lled
5 NASA to centralize an
d
mobilize efforts
4
D. First ste
p was to co
feasibility nduct
3 study and
provoke pos
sible partn
ers
2
E. A committee-driven
1 approach managed by
a
global technology com
pa ny
Drawing insights &
implications
Manhattan Man on Doubling 100-Year Barcelona

Project the moon human life Spaceship City Protocol
Far- Technically Multi-

Reaching Challenging Disciplinary Actionable
7 7 7 7
6 6 6 6
5 5 5 5
4 4 4 4
3 3 3 3
2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1
230
Which dimension of the

DARPA Hard Test will be
most challenging for
231
DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet #1
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet #2
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
CASE STUDY | The Heilmeier Catechism at DARPA
234
CASE STUDY | The original vision of EPCOT
A grand challenge
235
Was the vision DARPA Hard? The vision of EPCOT today
236
y n o t e s :
M
237
Pathfinders
When to use it
informal rules within an organization or

network.
Why it’s helpful
What you get


Instructions
240
3. We then trace each
line,
1. On the straight idea’s progress,
rd
we note the standa marking specific
milestones an idea events in its timeline
ch
must undergo, whi
ng
usually starts duri
at 4. We drew th
an ideation session e path up
nual above the “wa
our company’s an ter line”
ite when a partic
R&D planning offs ular event
moved the idea
ahead and
drew the path
dow
the idea slowed n when
down for
any reason
2. We select tw
o ideas that w
the past year: ere pu
oneSource:
whicTamara Carleton, 2012 rsued in
several month h s ta lled after
s and another
quickly got th which
e attention of
the CTO
241
Drawing insights &
implications
242
r
We also realized that othe
n
avenues for execution ca
open up, such as a new
seed fund established
within another division
The starting proposal

was a good reminder
about the value of
informal actions to
our team Our engineering-driven
culture often leads to a
technology idea looking
for a user for a while
243
What type of navigator

(e.g., landmark, route,
map, wanderer, hunter)
are you at work?
244
Additional examples
245
Pathfinders | method worksheet
©
y n o t e s :
M
APPENDIX
Shortcuts
Sponsors 250
Development team 252
Research partners 255
Terms of use 257
Suggested readings 258
Data sources 264

About our sponsors
The playbook team gratefully TEKES
acknowledges generous support
from Tekes and the Lappeenranta
University of Technology (LUT) in
Finland.
250
Lappeenranta University
of Technology
251
About the development team
Tamara Carleton, Ph.D.
252
William Cockayne, Ph.D.
253
Antti-Jussi Tahvanainen, Ph.D.
254
About our research partners
Vesa Harmaakorpi, D.Sc. Tuija Oikarinen, D.Sc. Saku J. Mäkinen, Ph.D.
255
Pekka Berg, Ph.D.
256
Terms of use
non-commercial use Licensing terms
Internal development
257
Suggested readings
Over the years, we have used a wide Looking Forward: A Guide Phase I: Perspective
to Futures Research.
articles, industry reports, multimedia, and
other materials with business leaders and
university students. Below is a brief selection
for further reading and to complement
your own efforts in foresight and long-term
innovation. This list will evolve.
Foresight Thinking
Studies: Human Science for a New Era he Death and Life of Great
(Volume I) Harvard Business Review.
Phase II: Opportunity Phase III: Solution The Back of the Napkin:
The Shell Global Solving Problems and Selling Ideas with
Scenarios to 2025: The future business Pictures
Harvard Business
Review.
Phase IV: Team Phase V: Vision
The Department of Mad
Made to
Die
260
Data sources: Emerging technologies
TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY Technology Review
261
Data sources: Location & population
ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Organisation for Economic U.S. Census Bureau
Co-operation and International Data Base
Development
Eurostat
262
Data sources: Future trends
Global Business Network PricewaterhouseCoopers
Center for Technology &
Innovation
Institute for the Future
263
Data sources: Finland
ETLA, THE RESEARCH INSTITUTE National Board of Patents Statistics Finland
OF THE FINNISH ECONOMY and Registration of Finland
(NBPR)
Population Research Tekes

Finnish Science and Institute
Technology Information
Service
264
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Playbook

Playbook Sponsors Research Partners

Graphic design and layout

next market, describing the

Chapter 2. How to Start 29 Chapter 6. Team 171

Chapter 3. Perspective 57 Chapter 7. Vision 207

Chapter 4. Opportunity 93 Appendix 249

A variety of case studies

FUTURE VISION 10 WORKSHOP A SECOND FUTURE HOW YLE DEFINED SEEKING

PROGRAM DARPA’S LESSONS TECHNOLOGY THE HEILMEIER THE ORIGINAL

types of content. The second schema applies to each method’s presentation. 65

WhY it’s helpful

IDEAL ORIGINALS MISSING

Instructions CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet

2. Draw an outline for a Context Map

dimensions as they arise. Points

Five planning phases 11

Two guiding principles 14

Case study: Paper 24

The Foresight Framework is composed Phase I: Perspective

planning and action.

Phase II: Opportunity

Phase III: Solution

Where would you put yourself

How do we introduce new

Let’s start with questions 30 Sample problems 42

Why a playbook 31 Learning process 44

Finding inspiration 35 Starting midway 48

Types of growth 36 Teams or alone 50

Who leads change 38 Finding data 51

Which industries 40 Case study: 10 lessons 52

4. You will make yourself

2. Using this playbook is

Which reasons(s) resonated

10. You can’t cheat at

8. Some academics were

simple places. >

External start >

What do you see as the most rational New growth

Core growth Which growth path does your

Industry sector Company size

National media company Training service provider

Global forestry company

Federal governmental International steel

Using methods alone

What are your usual top

Lesson 4: Frame the

Lesson 3: Assign light

Lesson 2: Divide people

Case study: Ubicom 78

WhY it’s helpful

What is the proposed topic?

WhY it’s helpful

What you get

Who are some experts you

The challenge: Following

WhY it’s helpful

What you get