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Frequency Analysis of Flood Discharge in Gin River at Tawalama, Sri Lanka

Conference Paper · June 2016

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Frequency Analysis of Flood Discharge in Gin River at Tawalama, Sri Lanka

T.N. Wickramaarachchi1
1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Ruhuna,
Hapugala, Galle, Sri Lanka

1. INTRODUCTION
Sustainable development of water resources requires an understanding of the degree of potential impacts of
natural hazards such as floods. Flooding has been identified as the single most destructive type of natural
disaster that strikes humans and their livelihoods around the world. According to WMO (2014), between 1970
and 2012, about 89% of the reported global disasters were due to flooding and storms. UN (1998) reported that
the citizens of the least developed nations suffer the highest toll from the occurrence of flooding.
Flooding has been one of the severe disasters in Sri Lanka, in terms of both human casualties and property
damage. In Gin catchment, flooding has become the most common natural hazard which caused a lot of damage
every time, during a flood event [Jayasekera (2009), Seneviratne (2004), Seneviratne & Wijesekera (2003)].
These findings reveal that this global environmental issue requires consistent and continuous estimation through
a scientific methodology. Wickramaarachchi et al (2015) revealed significant increase in the built-up land
during the 1983-1999 period resulting the ratio of built-up land to agricultural land to be dropped almost by half
in Galle DSD area, which is a part of the Gin catchment. The consequences of this continuous loss of pervious
area in Gin catchment suggest the possibility of more severe flooding problems to be occurred. Moreover, the
review of development plans for the Galle area presented by the ADB (2009) highlighted the need to
undertake an integrated study and plan for the area including measures for flood control. Though it had
identified such trends and needs related to flooding in Gin catchment, no significant attempts have been made yet
to understand the magnitude and occurrence of flooding in the catchment.
Estimates of flood discharge with various probabilities of exceedance are needed when designing structures
in or near the river that may be affected by floods. Such estimates are significant when designing structures to
protect against the largest expected event. Probability distribution provides an idea about the likely values of
discharge to expect in a river at various recurrence intervals based on the available historical records. In that
context, it is vital to perform frequency analysis of flood discharge using the instantaneous peak discharge data.
The frequency analysis relates the magnitude of extreme events to their frequency of occurrence using the
probability distributions (Chow et al, 1988).
Flood discharge is usually estimated based on a probabilistic approach or deterministic approach.
Deterministic approach calibrates an event based on a rainfall runoff model to runoff data, whereas probabilistic
approach fits a statistical distribution to a sample of observed flood peaks (Beven, 2005). Choice of method in a
specific case generally depends on data availability and on the specific tasks. Commonly used probability
distributions for flood frequency analysis include log normal, extreme value distributions, Pearson type III
distribution and log Pearson type III distribution. An attempt is made in the present study to perform flood
frequency analysis using log Pearson type III probability distribution. Log Pearson type III distribution is widely
used as the standard distribution for flood frequency analysis of annual maximum floods. The distribution has the
added advantage of providing skew adjustment (Patra, 2002).
The study was motivated by the need to estimate potential flood magnitude that can occur in a given time
interval. The objective of the study is to perform flood frequency analysis for Tawalama area in Gin catchment,
for different return periods using log Pearson type III probability distribution.

1.1. Study Area

Gin River originates in the central highlands of the country having an elevation of over 1300 m. Gin catchment is
geographically located within longitude 80°08' E to 80°40' E and latitude 6°04' N to 6°30' N, occupying an
approximate catchment area of 932 km2. The study area, Tawalama, falls within the middle catchment of Gin
River. Tawalama area comprised of sloping terrain with gradients ranging from 2%-10%.
The stream flow gauging station from which the data for this study was collected is located at Tawalama
(6°20'33" N, 80°19'50" E). The catchment area of the upstream zone above Tawalama gauging station is
470 km2.

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The climate of the area is influenced by two monsoons namely: south west monsoon falling between May
and September and north east monsoon falling between November and February. Remaining months of the year
experience inter-monsoon rains. Rainfall varies with altitude with mean annual rainfall above 3500 mm in the
upper reaches to less than 2500 mm in the lower reaches of the catchment.
Gin catchment which entirely lies within the wet zone of the country, includes mountainous slopes in upper
reaches, covered with forest canopy. Most of the population is concentrated in middle and lower reaches of the
catchment. Land use in the catchment primarily consists of human settlements, agriculture, and forests. Land use
pattern in Tawalama area mainly consists of human settlements and cultivations, and most of the settlements are
located within the extensive floodplain of Gin River. Location of the Gin River, its catchment and Tawalama
gauging station are shown in Figure 1.

Sri Lanka 

Gin river’s Catchment

Location
Gin River
Discharge gauging
station

Figure 1 Location of the Gin River, its catchment and Tawalama gauging station

2. MATERIALS AND METHODS

2.1. Data
Study utilized the daily discharge data at Tawalama (6°20'33" N, 80°19'50" E) gauging station collected by the
Department of Irrigation. Daily river discharge data for twenty three years (1980-2002) at Tawalama gauging
station was selected to perform the frequency analysis. During 1980-2002 period, the annual maximum flood
data at Tawalama varies from 116 m3/s to 632 m3/s. Annual maximum discharges in Gin River at Tawalama
(1980-2002) and relative frequency of flood occurrence are shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively.

700
601‐700
600
Discharge (m3 /s)

501‐600
Discharge (m3 /s)

500
401‐500
400
301‐400
300
201‐300
200
101‐200
100 0‐100
0
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Relative Frequency
Year
   
Figure 2 Annual maximum discharges Figure 3 Relative frequency of flood (annual
in Gin River at Tawalama (1980-2002) maximum) occurrence

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2.2. Methodology

2.2.1. Frequency Analysis

Log Pearson type III probability distribution:

By using the method of frequency analysis of hydrologic data, the return period associated with a flood of a
given magnitude can be estimated through the use of probability distributions [Eash (2001), ECST (2012)].
According to U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982) and U.S. Water Resources Council
(1976), the log Pearson type III Distribution is the recommended technique for flood frequency analysis.
Moreover, according to Vogel & Wilson (1996), log Pearson type III distributions provide good approximations
to the distribution of annual maximum flood series.
The probability distribution used in this study includes the log Pearson type III distribution. The fitting
method was based on parameter estimation technique of Method of Moments (MOM). Parameters of the
distribution are estimated from the given data by the MOM.
The log Pearson type III distribution is a three-parameter gamma function with a logarithmic transform of
the variable. By the method of moments, three sample moments, the mean, the standard deviation, and the
coefficient of skewness, are transformed into the three parameters, ,  and of the probability distribution.
Many probability distributions used in hydrologic frequency analysis use the frequency factor equation
(Eq. 1) proposed by Chow et al (1988).

(1)

where is the value of the variate x of a random hydrologic series with a recurrence interval T, is the mean
of the variate, is the standard deviation of the variate, and is the frequency factor which depends upon the
recurrence interval T and assumed frequency distribution.
For the log Pearson type III distribution, probability density function and the range of the variable are given
in Eq. (3). Parameters were estimated from the sample moments by using Eq. (4), Eq. (5) and Eq. (6)
(Chow et al, 1988).

(2)

where .

(3)

(4)

(5)

The mean , standard deviation , and coefficient of skewness are calculated for the logarithms of the
data. The frequency factor depends on the recurrence interval T and the coefficient of skewness, . When
, the frequency factor is equal to the standard normal variable . When , is approximated by
(Chow et al, 1988):

(6)

where .

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2.2.2. Goodness of Fit Test and Reliability of Analysis
Chi-square test of goodness of fit:

The goodness of fit techniques can be described as the methods of examining how a sample of data agrees with a
given distribution as its population. Goodness of fit between the observed flood discharge and the fitted
distribution was tested by the Chi-square test. Chi-square test for goodness of fit includes a relation between
observed number of occurrences and expected number of occurrences (Patra, 2002):

(7)

Here distribution has degrees of freedom. The value is equal to , where N is the total
number of sample data, h is the number of parameters used in filling the proposed distribution.

Confidence limits:

Statistical estimates are often presented with arrange, or confidence interval, within which the true value can
reasonably be expected to lie. The size of the confidence interval depends on the confidence level .
Corresponding to the confidence level is a significance level , given by (Chow et al, 1988):

(8)

For estimating the event magnitude for recurrence interval T, the upper limit and lower limit are
specified by adjustment of the frequency factor equations (Chow et al, 1988):

(9)

(10)

where and are the upper and lower confidence limit factors respectively, which can be determined for
normally distributed data using the non-central t distribution.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Daily river discharge data for twenty three years (1980-2002) at Tawalama gauging station were analysed to
obtain the annual maximums. The statistical properties of the log transferred annual maximum series include
mean value of 2.5 and standard deviation of 0.2.
Flood discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years, which commonly used in
engineering design of hydraulic structures, were calculated using the log Pearson type III probability
distribution (Table 1).

Table 1 Flood discharges at Tawalama for different recurrence intervals

Recurrence Frequency Flood discharge

interval (Years) factor (m3 /s)
2 0.12 317.7
5 0.86 445.5
10 1.17 515.9
25 1.47 590.7
50 1.63 637.9
100 1.77 678.9

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Eq. (11) shows the relationship between the magnitude of expected flood (y) and the recurrence interval (x)
with coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.97. The same equation can be applied to obtain extrapolated
values of expected flood discharge for recurrence intervals not covered in this study.

(11)

Chi-square goodness of fit test was applied to check the fit between the observed data and the probability
distribution. Chi-square test results revealed that the computed Chi–square statistics for log Pearson Type III is
6.043 and it is less than the critical value of Chi–square statistics for 0.05 significance level. Thus the hypothesis
of log Pearson type III distribution as a good fit was acceptable for the selected data set at 0.05 significance level.
Therefore the probability distribution is acceptable to fit to the annual maximum flood discharges of Gin River at
Tawalama at 95% confidence interval.
The reliability of the results of the frequency analysis depends on how well the log Pearson type III
probabilistic model applies to the observed set of flood discharge data. Statistical estimates are often presented
with confidence intervals within which the true value can reasonably be expected to lie. Thus, when estimating
the flood magnitudes for different recurrence intervals, upper and lower limits of 95 % confidence interval were
calculated (Table 2). Graphical presentation of estimated flood discharges together with the confidence limits is
shown in Figure 4. Confidence limits were laid on both upper and lower sides of the predicted distribution and
the data lying within the confidence bands are reliable to the extent of probabilities on which the confidence
limits are based. For the largest expected flood event with 100 year recurrence interval, upper and lower limits of
95% confidence intervals are 825 m3/s and 533 m3/s, respectively.

Table 2 Confidence limits of flood discharge (95 % confidence interval)

Recurrence interval Upper limit Lower limit

(Years) (m3/s) (m3/s)
2 378.6 256.8
5 541.3 349.6
10 628.6 403.1
25 719.6 461.9
50 776.0 499.8
100 824.6 533.3

Figure 4 Flood discharge with upper and lower limits of 95 % confidence interval vs. recurrence
interval

Consistency and accuracy of the estimated flood discharge strongly depend on the analysed length of flood
record. According to Patra (2002), the reasonable length of record for frequency analysis should be more than
twenty, which satisfied in the present study. The probability of occurrence of flood event of larger recurrence
interval may be obtained by extrapolation of values. However as shown in Figure 4, an increase in the recurrence
interval causes the confidence bands to spread.
The assumptions of independence and identical distribution of hydrologic data were satisfied in the present
study by selecting the annual maximum discharges which include largest instantaneous peak flow occurring in a
particular year.

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4. CONCLUSIONS
This study used the log Pearson type III probability distribution which has been widely used in hydrology and
water resources for flood frequency analysis. The goodness of fit tests performed using Chi-square method
indicated the suitability of the log Pearson type III distribution for flood estimations in the Gin catchment. The
advantages of this particular technique are: it includes the skew coefficient as a variable and the extrapolation of
the values can be made for the events with return periods beyond the observed flood events.
The results of the study give information on likely values of flood discharge to be expected in Tawalama
area in various recurrence intervals. These estimated flood values can be used for effective design of hydraulic
structures and infrastructure in Tawalama area and for effective management of the flood plain in the Gin
catchment. Moreover, the findings of the study enable strategic decision making by local authorities with respect
to flood plain management such as formulating disaster risk reduction policies and mitigation plans as well
establishing early warning systems. Also the findings of this study will form the basis to develop a regional flood
frequency analysis.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author is grateful to University of Ruhuna, Sri Lanka for providing the research facilities to carry out the
study.

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(Submitted on 3/31/2016)

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