Chaper 3: Probability and Probability models

(Introductory Biostatistics – Chap T. Le)

1/ Consider the data shown in the table on the use of x-ray as a screening test for tuberculosis. Calculate the
positive predictive value using Bayes’ theorem.
Tuberculosis
X-ray
No Yes
Negative 1739 8
Positiive 51 22
Total 1790 30

2/ Refer to the standard normal distribution. What is the probability of obtaining a z value of:
a) At least 1.25
b) At least -0.84

3/ Refer to the standard normal distribution. What is the probability of obtaining a z value of:
a) Between -1.96 and 1.96
b) Between 1.22 and 1.85
c) Between -0.84 and 1.28

4/ Refer to the standard normal distribution. What is the probability of obtaining a z value of:
a) Less than 1.72
b) Less than -1.25

5/ Refer to the standard normal distribution. Find a z value such that the probabiloty of obtaining a larger z
value is:
a) 0.05
b) 0.025
c) 0.20

6/ Medical research has concluded that people experience a common cold roughly two times per year. Assume
that the time between colds is normally distributed with a mean of 160 days and a standard deviation of 40
days.
a) What is the probability if going 200 or more days between colds? Or going 365 or more days?
b) What is the probability of getting a cold withing 80 days of a previous cold

7/ Assume that the test scires for a large class are normally distributed with a mean of 74 and a standard
deviation of 10.
a) Suppose that you receive a score of 88. What percent of the class received scores higher than yours?
b) Suppose that the teacher wants to limit the number of A grades in the class to no more than 20%. What
would be the lowest score for an A?
8/ Intelligence test scores, referred to as intelligence quotient or IQ scores, are based on charracteristics such
as verbal skills, abstract reasoning power, numerical ability, and spatial visualization. If plotted on a graph, the
distribution of IQ scores approximates a normal curve with a mean of about 100. An IQ score above 115 is
considered superior. Studies of “intellectually gifted” childern have generally defined the lower limit of their
IQ scores at 140, approximately 1% of the population have IQ scores above this limit. (based on Biracree,
1984)
a) Find the standard deviation of this distribution
b) What percent are in the “superior” rang of 115 or above?
c) What percent of the population have IQ score of 70 or below?

9/ IQ scores for college graduates are normally distributed with a mean of 120 (as compared to 100 for the
general population) with a standard deviation of 12. What is the probability of randomly selecting a graduate
student with a IQ score:
a) Between 110 and 130?
b) Above 140?
c) Below 100?

10/ Suppose it is known that the probability of recovery for a certain disease is 0.4. If 35 people are stricken
with the diseas, what is the probability that:
a) 25 or more will recover?
b) Fewer than five will recover?
(Use the normal approximation)

11/ A study found that for 60% of the couples who have been married 10 years or less, both spouses work. A
sample of 30 couples who have been married 10 years or less are selected from marital records available at a
local courthouse. We are interested in the number of couples in this sample in which both spouses work. What
is the probability that this number is:
a) 20 or more?
b) 25 or more?
c) 10 or fewer?
(Use the normal approximation)

12/ Many samples of water, all the same size, are taken from the river suspected of having been polutted by
irresponsible operators at a sewage treatment plant. The number of coliform organisms in each sample was
counted; the average number of organisms per sample was 15. Assuming the number of organism to be
Poisson distributed, find the probability that:
a) The next sample will contain at least 20 organisms.
b) The next sample will contain no more than 5 organisms.

13/ For a t curve with 20 df, find the areas:

a) To the left of 2.086 and of 2.845
b) To the right of 1.725 and of 2.528
c) Beyond ±2.086 and beyond ±2.485
 Chaper 5: Introduction to Statistical tests of significance
(Introductory Biostatistics – Chap T. Le)

1/ For each part, state the null (H0) and alternative (H1 or HA) hypotheses.
a) Has the average community level of suspended particulates for the month of August exceeded 30
μg/cm3?
b) Doses the mean age of onset of a certain acute disease for shool-children differ from 11.5?
c) A psychologist claims that the average IQ of a sample of 60 children is significantly above the normal
IQ of 100.
d) Is the average cross-sectional area of the lumen of coronary arteries for men, ages 40-59, less than
31.5% of the total arterial cross section?
e) Is the mean hemoglobin level of high-altitude workers different from 16 g/cm3?
f) Does the average speed of 50 cars as checked by radar on a particular highway differ from 55 mph?

2/ The distribution of diastolic blood pressures for the population of female diabetics between the ages of 30
and 34 has an unknown mean μ and a standard deviation of δ = 9 mmHg. It may be useful to physicians to
know whether the mean μ of this population is equal to the mean diastolic blood pressure of the general
population of females of this age group, which is 74.5 mmHg. What are the null hypothesis and alternative
hypothesis for this test?

3/ E. canis infection is a tick-borne disease of dogs that is sometimes contracted by humans. Among infected
humans, the distribution of white blood cell counts has an unknown mean μ and a standard deviation δ. In the
general population the mean white blood count is 7250 per mm3. It is believed that persons infected with E.
canis must on average have a lower blood cell count. What is the null hypothesis for the test? Is this a one- or
two-sided alternative?

4/ A group of investigators wishes to explore the relationship between the use of hair dyes and the
development of breast cancer in females. A group of 1000 beauticians 40-49 years of age is identified and
followed for five years. After five years, 20 new cases of breast cancer have occurred. Assume that breast
cancer incidence over this time period for average American women in this age group is 7/1000. We wish to
test the hypothesis that using hair dyes increases the risk of breast cancer. Is a one- or two-sided test
appropriate here? Compute the p value for your choice.

5/ Height and weight are often used in epidemiological studies as possible predictors of disease outcomes. If
the people in the study are assessed in a clinic, heights and weights are usually measured directly. However, if
the people are interviewed at home or by mail, a person’s self-reported height and weight are often instead.
Suppose that we conduct a study on 10 people to test the comparability of these two methods. Data from these
10 people were obtained using both methods on each person. What is the criterion for the comparison? What
is the null hypothesis? Should a two- or one-sided test be used here?

6/ Suppose that 28 cancer deaths are noted among workers exposed to asbestos in a building materials plant
from 1984 to 1985. Only 20.5 cancer deaths are expected from statewide mortality rates. Suppose that we
want to know if there is a significant excess of cancer deaths among these workers. What is the null
hypothesis? Is a one- or two-sided test appropriate here?

7/ A food frequency questionnaire was mailed to 20 subjects to assess the intake of various food groups. The
sample standard deviation of vitamin C intake over the 20 subjects was 15 (exclusive of vitamin C
supplements). Suppose that we know from using an in-person diet interview method in an earlier large study
that the standard deviation is 20. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses if we want to test for any
differences between the standard deviations of the two methods.

8/ Suppose that the national smoking rate among men is 25% and we want to study the smoking rate among
men in the New England states. A study is to be aonducted for New England states using a sample size n =
100 and the decision rule: If p ≤ 0.20, H0 is rejected where H0 is H0: π = 0.25 where π and p are population
and sample proportions, respectively, for New England states. Is this a one- or two-tailed test?

9/ Suppose that the national smoking rate among men is 25% and we want to study the smoking rate among
men in the New England states. Of n = 100 males sampled, x = 18 were found to be smokers. Does the
proportion π of smokers in New England states differ from that in the nation?

10/ Calculate the 95% confidence interval for π using the sample in previous question 9 and compare the
findings to the testing results of question 9.
 Chaper 6: Comparison of population proportions
(Introductory Biostatistics – Chap T. Le)

1/ Consider a sample of n = 110 women drawn randomly from the membership list of the National
Organixation for Women (N.O.W.), x = 25 of whom were found to smoke. Use the result of this sample to test
whether the rate found is significantly different from the U.S. proportion of 0.30 for women.

2/ Self-reported injuries among left- and right-handed people were compared in a survey of 1896 college
students in British Columbia, Canada. Of the 180 left-handed students, 93 reported at least one injury. In the
same period, 619 of the 1716 right-handed students reported at least one injury. Test to compare the
proportions of injured students, left-handed versus right-handed; state clearly your null and alternative
hypotheses and choice of test size.

3/ In a study conducted to evaluate the hypothesis that tea consumption and premenstrual syndrome are
associated, 188 nursing students and 64 tea factory workers were given questionnaires. The prevalence of
premenstrual syndrome was 39% among the nursing students and 77% among the tea factory workers. Tets to
compare the prevalences of premenstrual syndrome, tea factory workers versus mursing students; state clearly
your null and alternative hypotheses and choice of test size.
 Chaper 7: Comparison of population means
(Introductory Biostatistics – Chap T. Le)

1/ The criterion for issuing a smog alert is established at greater than 7 ppm of a particular pollutant. Samples
collected from 16 stations in a certain city give a value of 7.84 ppm with a standard deviation of s = 2.01
ppm. Do these findings indicate that the smog alert criterion has been exceeded? State clearly your null and
alternative hypotheses and choice of test size (alpha level)

2/ The purpose of an experiment is to investigate the effect of vagal nerve stimulation on insulin secretion.
The subjects are mongrel dogs with varying body weights. Below table gives the amount of immunoreactive
insulin in pancreatic venous plasma just before stimulation of the left vagus and the amount measured 5
minutes after stimulation for seven dogs. Test the null hypothesis that the stimulation of the vagus nerve has
no effect on the blood level of immunoreactive insulin; that is H0: µbefore = µafter. State your alternative
hypothesis and choice of test size, and draw the appropriate conclusion.
Blood levels of immunoreactive insulin (µU/mL)
Dog
Before After
1 350 480
2 200 130
3 240 250
4 290 310
5 90 280
6 370 1450
7 240 280

3/ In a study of saliva cotinine, seven subjects, all of whom has abstained from morking for a week, were
asked to smoke a single cigareete. The cotinine levels at 12 and 24 hours after smoking are given in table. Test
to compare the mean cotinine levels at 12 and 24 hours after smorking. State clearly your null and alternative
hypotheses (alpha level 0.01)
Cotinine level (mmol/L)
Subject
After 12 hours After 24 hours
1 73 24
2 58 27
3 67 49
4 93 59
5 33 0
6 18 11
7 147 43

4/ Dentists often make many people nervous. To see if such nervousness elevates blood pressure, the systolic
blood pressures of 60 subjects were measured in a dentel setting, then again in a medical setting. Data for 60
matched pairs (dental – medical) are summarized as follows: mean = 4.47, standard deviation = 8.77. Test to
compare the means blood pressure under two different settings. Name the test and state clearly your null and
alternative hypotheses (alpha level 0.05)

5/ A study with 21 transplants fro 21 children were reported where ultrasounds were taken at the time for liver
transplant and again 5 to 10 years later to determine the systolic pressure of the hepatic artery. Below table
gives the diastolic pressures obtained from the study. Test to compare the mean diastolic hepatic pressures.
Name the test and state clearly your null and alternative hypotheses (α = 0.01).
Diastolic hepatic pressure
Subject
5-10 year later At transplant
1 14 25
2 10 10
3 20 23
4 10 14
5 4 19
6 20 12
7 10 5
8 18 4
9 12 23
10 18 8
11 10 10
12 10 20
13 15 12
14 10 10
15 10 19
16 15 20
17 26 26
18 20 8
19 10 10
20 10 11
21 10 16