Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Ontario

About Mainstreet

Founded in 2010, Mainstreet Research is recognized as one of Canada’s top public opinion
and market research firms. Since our founding, we have been providing actionable and data-
driven insights to our clients to help them make their most important evidence-based strategic
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ceeds all Canadian and international standards for market research and public opinion re-
search.

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 5th, 2020
among a sample of 1014 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviews
on landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population
in Ontario.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.94% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error
are higher in each subsample.

1
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

The Ontario Energy Board has announced a 2% increase in electricity

prices on November 1st. Do you agree or disagree with the Ontario
decision to raise electricity rates at this time?

8% 6%
13 %

All Respondents
18 %

56 %

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree

Response
Strongly Disagree Not Sure

crosstabbed by age and gender

Gender Age Region

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto Greater Toronto Area Eastern Ontario South Central Ontario Southwestern Ontario Northern Ontario
Strongly Agree 6.3% 9.1% 3.6% 7.7% 4.1% 7.2% 5.8% 8.4% 5.4% 9.3% 2.2% 5.8% 3.4%
Somewhat Agree 12.7% 15.9% 9.6% 13.8% 11.4% 13.1% 12.4% 14.3% 8.3% 14.5% 9.8% 17.6% 10.7%
Somewhat Disagree 17.8% 18% 17.6% 15.4% 19.1% 15.7% 22.4% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 22.6% 19.7% 17%
Strongly Disagree 55.5% 49.7% 61.2% 52% 56.4% 59.1% 54.5% 49.4% 63.8% 53.1% 60.6% 49% 62.1%
Not Sure 7.7% 7.3% 8% 11.1% 8.9% 5% 4.9% 11.6% 6.2% 5.8% 4.8% 7.9% 6.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 577 437 169 284 344 217 145 288 139 175 205 62
Weighted Frequency 1014 498 516 285 255 278 196 236 279 135 90 212 62

2
crosstabbed by provincial voting intention

Party
Total PC NDP OLP Greens Other UD
Strongly Agree 6.3% 10.2% 3.1% 3.6% 12.1% 3.8% 2%
Somewhat Agree 12.7% 12.7% 12.3% 15% 14.7% 15.2% 10%
Somewhat Disagree 17.8% 17.6% 17.1% 18.1% 21.1% 2.9% 20.8%
Strongly Disagree 55.5% 55.5% 57.2% 56.2% 45.2% 62.7% 54.6%
Not Sure 7.7% 3.9% 10.3% 7.3% 6.9% 15.3% 12.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 429 169 156 53 37 170
Weighted Frequency 1014 401 197 160 51 36 168

3
In 2018, the newly elected Doug Ford PC government eliminated the pre-
vious Ontario Liberal government’s cap-and-trade carbon-pricing plan.
Just this year, Doug Ford announced an emission pricing scheme that
works as an industrial carbon tax. Do you approve or disapprove of the
Doug Ford Ontario PC government’s new Carbon Tax?

12 %
26 %

18 %
All Respondents

15 %
29 %

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove

Response
Strongly Disapprove Not Sure

crosstabbed by age and gender

Gender Age Region

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto Greater Toronto Area Eastern Ontario South Central Ontario Southwestern Ontario Northern Ontario
Strongly Approve 12.4% 15.2% 9.7% 11.7% 13.4% 13.2% 11% 11.5% 10.7% 13% 16.8% 11.7% 18.3%
Somewhat Approve 18.4% 22.1% 14.9% 20.3% 15.3% 16.7% 22.3% 15.8% 21.8% 19.7% 17.5% 16.5% 18.7%
Somewhat Disapprove 14.6% 15.3% 13.8% 14% 13.1% 16.2% 14.9% 17.5% 15.9% 13% 9.9% 12.6% 14.3%
Strongly Disapprove 28.5% 28.2% 28.8% 31.4% 26.5% 27.9% 28% 24.9% 31.7% 28.8% 31.2% 29% 22%
Not Sure 26.1% 19.2% 32.7% 22.6% 31.8% 26% 23.8% 30.3% 20% 25.4% 24.6% 30.3% 26.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 577 437 169 284 344 217 145 288 139 175 205 62
Weighted Frequency 1014 498 516 285 255 278 196 236 279 135 90 212 62

6
crosstabbed by provincial voting intention

Party
Total PC NDP OLP Greens Other UD
Strongly Approve 12.4% 22.1% 5.5% 4.4% 10% 17.6% 4.6%
Somewhat Approve 18.4% 25.3% 18.3% 9.6% 20.1% 9.7% 12%
Somewhat Disapprove 14.6% 16.1% 10.5% 18.4% 14.5% 5.8% 13.8%
Strongly Disapprove 28.5% 18.8% 38.7% 39.8% 33.5% 57.2% 21.5%
Not Sure 26.1% 17.7% 27% 27.7% 21.9% 9.7% 48.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 429 169 156 53 37 170
Weighted Frequency 1014 401 197 160 51 36 168

7
In 2019, the federal Liberal government of Justin Trudeau imposed its
national carbon tax on Ontario. Do you approve or disapprove of the
Trudeau government’s Carbon Tax?

11 %

29 %

All Respondents

34 %

17 %
8%

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove

Response
Strongly Disapprove Not Sure

crosstabbed by age and gender

Gender Age Region

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto Greater Toronto Area Eastern Ontario South Central Ontario Southwestern Ontario Northern Ontario
Strongly Approve 28.9% 27.6% 30.2% 31.7% 26.2% 26.6% 31.8% 36.1% 28% 28.7% 24.5% 27.9% 16.1%
Somewhat Approve 17.4% 15.6% 19.1% 18.4% 15.7% 20% 14.4% 19.7% 13.7% 19.5% 17.1% 19.2% 14.6%
Somewhat Disapprove 8.4% 9.9% 7% 8.7% 7.8% 8.2% 9% 5.5% 10.1% 8.9% 11.2% 8.4% 7.1%
Strongly Disapprove 34.3% 41.3% 27.5% 32% 37.8% 33.9% 33.4% 21.9% 38.2% 36.3% 34% 35.9% 54%
Not Sure 11% 5.5% 16.2% 9.1% 12.4% 11.3% 11.4% 16.7% 10% 6.5% 13.2% 8.6% 8.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 577 437 169 284 344 217 145 288 139 175 205 62
Weighted Frequency 1014 498 516 285 255 278 196 236 279 135 90 212 62

8
crosstabbed by provincial voting intention

Party
Total PC NDP OLP Greens Other UD
Strongly Approve 28.9% 13.9% 47.5% 51.1% 49.9% 13.3% 18.9%
Somewhat Approve 17.4% 12.1% 24% 15.6% 25.2% 8.6% 23.8%
Somewhat Disapprove 8.4% 11.7% 3.1% 9.4% 6.7% 0% 8.3%
Strongly Disapprove 34.3% 55.2% 14% 15% 9.8% 66.4% 27.1%
Not Sure 11% 7.2% 11.4% 9% 8.4% 11.7% 21.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 429 169 156 53 37 170
Weighted Frequency 1014 401 197 160 51 36 168

9
Which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion re-
garding Doug Ford’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?

- Doug Ford has placed the demands of “business” ahead of the health
and safety of Ontario residents. Ford needs to do a better job at follow-
ing the advice of Ontario doctors and public health officials.

- Doug Ford has been too severe in imposing “lockdowns”. Ford’s ac-
tions represent an excessive limitation of personal liberty of Ontario
residents; and has needlessly damaged the Ontario economy.

- Doug Ford has, overall, done a good job at managing the COVID-19
pandemic by striking the right balance in protecting public health and
in assisting Ontario businesses and workers.

29 %

All Respondents
53 %

17 %

Ford listens to business too much Ford has been too severe
Response
Ford has struck the right balance

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crosstabbed by age and gender

Gender Age Region

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto Greater Toronto Area Eastern Ontario South Central Ontario Southwestern Ontario Northern Ontario
Ford listens to business too much 29.3% 26.9% 31.6% 41.4% 25% 24.1% 24.8% 35.8% 26.7% 26.6% 22% 30.6% 28.6%
Ford has been too severe 17.5% 19.1% 15.9% 17.6% 26.6% 16.4% 6.9% 22.3% 20.2% 8.4% 19.6% 14.7% 13.2%
Ford has struck the right balance 53.2% 54% 52.4% 41.1% 48.4% 59.5% 68.3% 41.9% 53.1% 65% 58.4% 54.8% 58.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 577 437 169 284 344 217 145 288 139 175 205 62
Weighted Frequency 1014 498 516 285 255 278 196 236 279 135 90 212 62

crosstabbed by provincial voting intention

Party
Total PC NDP OLP Greens Other UD
Ford listens to business too much 29.3% 6.9% 65.8% 46% 52.9% 4.9% 22.2%
Ford has been too severe 17.5% 18.8% 6.1% 9.8% 12.5% 69.4% 25.2%
Ford has struck the right balance 53.2% 74.3% 28.1% 44.2% 34.6% 25.7% 52.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 429 169 156 53 37 170
Weighted Frequency 1014 401 197 160 51 36 168

11
Do you support or oppose defunding the police and redirecting sub-
stantial portions of the police budget to other government services?

9%
21 %

All Respondents
37 %
19 %

14 %

Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose

Response
Strongly Oppose Not Sure

crosstabbed by age and gender

Gender Age Region

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto Greater Toronto Area Eastern Ontario South Central Ontario Southwestern Ontario Northern Ontario
Strongly Support 21% 18.2% 23.8% 37.4% 17.2% 14.4% 11.6% 24.1% 22.5% 22.1% 9.9% 19% 23.5%
Somewhat Support 19.2% 16.6% 21.7% 16.3% 21.3% 17.7% 22.8% 24.2% 18% 18.2% 19.5% 16.6% 15.7%
Somewhat Oppose 14% 14.3% 13.7% 10.4% 12.8% 17.6% 15.8% 16% 9.9% 14% 17% 16.3% 13%
Strongly Oppose 36.9% 43.1% 30.9% 30.1% 36% 41.6% 41.2% 27.9% 39.8% 36% 44.2% 39.7% 39.7%
Not Sure 8.9% 7.8% 9.9% 5.8% 12.7% 8.6% 8.6% 7.8% 9.7% 9.7% 9.3% 8.4% 8.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 577 437 169 284 344 217 145 288 139 175 205 62
Weighted Frequency 1014 498 516 285 255 278 196 236 279 135 90 212 62

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crosstabbed by provincial voting intention

Party
Total PC NDP OLP Greens Other UD
Strongly Support 21% 9.7% 43% 23.9% 29.3% 22% 16.9%
Somewhat Support 19.2% 11% 29.3% 26% 28.4% 16.7% 18.1%
Somewhat Oppose 14% 17.7% 7% 14.7% 10.7% 3% 16.3%
Strongly Oppose 36.9% 55% 15.1% 23.9% 20.4% 44.6% 34.7%
Not Sure 8.9% 6.5% 5.6% 11.5% 11.1% 13.7% 14.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 429 169 156 53 37 170
Weighted Frequency 1014 401 197 160 51 36 168

13
The current Ontario sex-ed curriculum includes lessons that teach gen-
der identity theory. That is, that there are many genders other than male
and female. Do you agree or disagree with teaching gender identity the-
ory to children in Ontario elementary schools?

9%

30 %

28 %
All Respondents

20 %
14 %

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree

Response
Strongly Disagree Not Sure

crosstabbed by age and gender

Gender Age Region

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto Greater Toronto Area Eastern Ontario South Central Ontario Southwestern Ontario Northern Ontario
Strongly Agree 30.1% 23.9% 36.2% 36.5% 27.6% 27.6% 27.9% 30.9% 26.5% 34.6% 29.6% 30.7% 33%
Somewhat Agree 20.2% 17.5% 22.8% 17.8% 17.1% 25.1% 20.6% 21.2% 21.2% 23.4% 17.9% 19% 11.5%
Somewhat Disagree 13.5% 16.2% 11% 10.6% 10.7% 14.9% 19.4% 13.2% 12% 9% 15.5% 16.4% 18.6%
Strongly Disagree 27.6% 34.5% 20.9% 26.6% 34.3% 25.8% 23% 21.5% 33.5% 27.6% 29.7% 26.7% 24.6%
Not Sure 8.5% 8% 9.1% 8.5% 10.2% 6.7% 9% 13.1% 6.8% 5.4% 7.3% 7.1% 12.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 577 437 169 284 344 217 145 288 139 175 205 62
Weighted Frequency 1014 498 516 285 255 278 196 236 279 135 90 212 62

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crosstabbed by provincial voting intention

Party
Total PC NDP OLP Greens Other UD
Strongly Agree 30.1% 13.9% 60.8% 34.5% 48.7% 6.8% 28.3%
Somewhat Agree 20.2% 19.8% 17.7% 25.8% 21.5% 19.4% 18.3%
Somewhat Disagree 13.5% 18.1% 7.2% 10.7% 10.4% 8.7% 14.7%
Strongly Disagree 27.6% 41.8% 7.2% 18.3% 17.2% 56.6% 23.4%
Not Sure 8.5% 6.4% 7% 10.8% 2.3% 8.5% 15.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1014 429 169 156 53 37 170
Weighted Frequency 1014 401 197 160 51 36 168

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