Full Thesis

TOURISM LOCATION SELECTION BY
LOGISTIC MODEL
By
KAZI ANOWAR HUSSAIN

Student No.: 0411093009P
Registration No. : 0411093009, Session: April-2011
MASTER OF PHILOSOPHY
IN
MATHEMATICS
Department of Mathematics
BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY,
DHAKA-1000
*******************
i
The thesis entitled
TOURISM LOCATION SELECTION BY

LOGISTIC MODEL
Submitted by
KAZI ANOWAR HUSSAIN
Student No.:0411093009P, Session: April-2011, a part time student of M. Phil
(Mathematics) has been accepted as satisfactory in partial fulfillment for the degree of
Master of Philosophy in Mathematics
On June-2015
BOARD OF EXAMINERS
1.
Dr. Mohammed Forhad Uddin
Associate Professor Chairman
Department of Mathematics, BUET, Dhaka.
(Supervisor)
2.
Member
Head
Department of Mathematics, BUET, Dhaka. (Ex-Officio)
3.
Dr. Md. Mustafa Kamal Chowdhury
Professor Member
4.
Dr. Md. Obayed Ullah
Professor Member
5.
Dr. Md. Haider Ali Biswas
Professor Member
Mathematics Discipline (External)
Khulna University
Khulna-9208.
ii
DEDICATION
This work is dedicated to my beloved

Parents & Teachers
iii
Abstract
Tourism is the change in environment. Tourism positively effects on human life. It

gives an opportunity to have a break from ones monotonous life. Tourism also has
impact on national economy of a country in a large scale. Economy of any country of
the world survives on tourism. The attraction of mass population plays a vital role
behind the success of a tourist spot. This can be easily grown by promoting the
positive impact of tourism in human life. By providing cost effective and highly
flexible package people can be easily attracted towards tourism. Cox’s Bazar,
Kuakata and Jaflong can be developed as a promising tourist spot. Cox’s Bazar,
Kuakata and Jaflong are well known for their natural beauty. So by taking necessary
strides these locations can be built as a heaven for tourist.
This dissertation has aimed to formulate a binary logistic model that has considered
the criteria, such as age, sex, educational qualification, income, accommodation,
transportation, security etc. It is assumed that these attributes play an important role to
attract the people for location selection. In order to validate the model we conduct a
questionnaire survey data collected from the areas in Cox’s Bazar, Kuakata and
Jaflong. The location selection is developed by using the logistic model. The
formulated binary logistic regression model that has been developed specifically for
analyzing relationships between dichotomous dependent variables and independent
variables. Then we have solved the binary logistic model, where we shall validate the
model by estimating the parameters. The coefficients of variable that is found to be
statistically significant are considered.
The significant level is determined by P value and value, where P value validated
our data and value validated our model. In order to test the significant level of the
model Hosmer and Lemeshow test, Omnibus test have been deployed.
iv
Author’s declaration
I hereby declare that this work submitted to the Department of Mathematics,

Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Mathematics.
It has not been submitted to elsewhere for the award of any degree or diploma in
home or abroad.
(Kazi Anowar Hussain)
Date:……………………….
v
Acknowledgement
I am grateful to the Almighty, most Merciful, and most Gracious, who gave me the
strength to survive.
I offer my sincerest gratitude to my supervisor, Associate Professor Dr. Mohammed

Forhad Uddin, who gave me the opportunity to work in his lab. This thesis would not
be like this without his guidance, criticism, support, encouragement, and motivation
for the last three and a half years; the most valuable advice being:
“think..think..think..”, which I will remember in the rest of my life. Thank you Sir.
My special thanks to Dr. Md. Mustafa Kamal Chowdhury, Professor, Department of

Mathematics, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET),
Dhaka, for providing me all sorts of cooperation and assistance. I would also like to
extend my thanks to all my respectable teachers, Department of Mathematics, BUET,
Dhaka. In particular, I would like to express my gratitude to Professor and Head Dr.
Md. Manirul Alam Sarker, Professor Dr. Md. Abdul Alim, Professor Dr. Md. Obayed
Ullah, Professor Dr. Md. Elias, Professor Dr. Md. Abdul Hakim Khan, Professor Dr.
Md. Zafar Iqbal Khan for their thorough help and encouragement. I would like to
thanks BUET, for providing me to sufficient fund to collect data that helps me to
complete my thesis. I would like to thank the members of the thesis committee for
their critical reviews in improving my thesis.
I would like to thanks my friends and colleague for their support and encouragement
for the last three years. In particular, I would like to express my gratitude to Rifat
Jahan and Manik Mondal, for sharing their experience with me to help pass the
difficult times.
Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to my family for their continuous support
to overcome all the struggles for my entire life.
(KAZI ANOWAR HUSSAIN)
Dated: September, 2015
vi
Contents
Abstract ......................................................................................................................... iv
Author’s Declaration ...................................................................................................... v
Acknowledgement ........................................................................................................ vi
NOMENCLATURE………………………………………………….……………...xiv
CHAPTER-1 .................................................................................................................. 1
INTRODUCTION………………….………………………………………………….1
1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Different Types of Tourism Sector .............................................................. 5
1.2.1 Site Tourism ........................................................................................... 5
1.2.2 Business Tourism ................................................................................... 6
1.2.3 Education Tourism ................................................................................ 6
1.2.4 Religious Tourism .................................................................................. 6
1.2.5 Medical Tourism .................................................................................... 7
1.2.6 Other Tourism ........................................................................................ 8
1.3 Effect of Government Sector and Private Sector ....................................... 8
1.3.1 Government Sector ................................................................................ 8
1.3.2 Bangladesh Tourism Board Act. ........................................................ 11
1.3.3 Private Sector Participation ................................................................ 13
1.4 Importance of Tourism ............................................................................... 14
1.4.1 Advantages of Tourism........................................................................ 14
1.4.2 Disadvantages of Tourism ................................................................... 14
1.5 Possible Positive Impact of Tourism.......................................................... 15
1.6 Problems of Tourism in Our Locations .................................................... 16
1.7 Literature Review ........................................................................................ 17
vii
CHAPTER-2 ................................................................................................................ 23
DATA COLLECTION……………………………………………………………….23
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 23
2.2 Cox’s Bazar .................................................................................................. 25
2.2.1 Cox’s Bazar Tourist Attractions......................................................... 26
2.3 Limitations ................................................................................................... 28
2.4 Discussion about Survey Data in Cox’s Bazar ......................................... 28
2.4.1 Accommodation Facilities ................................................................... 28
2.4.2 Transportation Facilities ..................................................................... 29
2.4.3 Security ................................................................................................. 29
2.4.4 Income ................................................................................................... 30
2.4.5 Quality Price Ratio .............................................................................. 30
2.5 Kuakata ........................................................................................................ 31
2.5.1 Kuakata Tourist Attractions ............................................................... 32
2.6 Limitations ................................................................................................... 34
2.7 Discussion about Survey Data in Kuakata ................................................ 35
2.7.3 Security ................................................................................................. 36
2.7.4 Income ................................................................................................... 37
2.8 Jaflong .......................................................................................................... 38
2.8.1 Jaflong Tourist Attractions ................................................................. 39
2.9 Limitations ................................................................................................... 41
2.10 Discussion about Survey Data in Jaflong .................................................. 41
viii
2.10.3 Security ................................................................................................. 43
2.10.4 Income ................................................................................................... 44
2.11 Problems of These Locations ...................................................................... 45
CHAPTER-3 ................................................................................................................ 46
BINARY LOGISTIC MODEL FOR TOURISM LOCATION SELECTION………46
3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 46
3.2 Fields and Applications............................................................................... 47
3.3 Mathematical Formulation......................................................................... 47
3.4 Case Study.................................................................................................... 51
3.5 Data Analysis ............................................................................................... 51
3.5.1 Cox’s Bazar........................................................................................... 51
3.5.2 Kuakata ................................................................................................. 59
3.5.3 Jaflong ................................................................................................... 67
CHAPTER-4 ................................................................................................................ 75
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS….…………………………………75
4.1 Conclusion .................................................................................................... 75
4.2 Recommendations ....................................................................................... 75
FUTURE WORK………………………………………………………………….…78
REFFERENCES………………………..…………………………………………….79
APPENDIX-1…………………………………………………………………….…..85
APPENDIX-2………………………………………………………………………...88
ix
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Global Muslim Travel Index ...................................................................... 7
Table 1.2 Growth and Contribution of Tourism in GDP of Bangladesh. ............. 13
Table 1.3 Reports on World Tourism Organization .............................................. 15
Table 3.1 Classification Table ................................................................................... 52
Table 3.2 Variables in the Equation (Cox’s Bazar) ................................................ 52
Table 3.3 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients ...................................................... 55
Table 3.4 Model Summary ........................................................................................ 55
Table 3.5 Hosmer and Lemeshow Test .................................................................... 55
Table 3.6 Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test ............................. 56
Table 3.8 Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities ....................................... 58
Table 3.10 Variables in the Equation (Kuakata) .................................................... 60
Table 3.11 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients .................................................... 63
Table 3.12 Model Summary ...................................................................................... 63
Table 3.13 Hosmer and Lemeshow Test .................................................................. 63
Table 3.14 Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test ........................... 64
Table 3.15 Classification Table ................................................................................. 65
Table 3.16 Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities ..................................... 66
Table 3.18 Variables in the Equation (Jaflong)....................................................... 68
Table 3.19 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients .................................................... 70
Table 3.20 Model Summary ...................................................................................... 71
Table 3.21 Hosmer and Lemeshow Test .................................................................. 71
x
Table 3.22 Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test ........................... 72
Table 3.24 Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities ..................................... 74
xi
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Cox’s Bazar Sea Beach .............................................................................. 3
Figure 1.2 Kuakata Sea Beach .................................................................................... 4
Figure 1.3 Piyain River, Jaflong, Sylhet .................................................................... 5
Figure 2.1 Tourism Locations in Bangladesh .......................................................... 24
Figure 2.2 Tourism Locations in Cox’s Bazar......................................................... 25
Figure 2.3 Himchari Waterfall ................................................................................. 26
Figure 2.4 The road between Himchari and Inani Beach ...................................... 27
Figure 2.5 Accommodation Facilities ....................................................................... 28
Figure 2.6 Transportation Facilities ......................................................................... 29
Figure 2.7 Security Facilities ..................................................................................... 29
Figure 2.8 Monthly Income of Visitors .................................................................... 30
Figure 2.9 Quality Price Ratio .................................................................................. 30
Figure 2.10 Tourism Locations in Kuakata ............................................................. 32
Figure 2.11 Gangamati Reserved Forest ................................................................. 33
Figure 2.12 Jhaubon at Kuakata .............................................................................. 34
Figure 2.13 Accommodation Facilities ..................................................................... 35
Figure 2.14 Transportation Facilities ....................................................................... 36
Figure 2.15 Security Facilities ................................................................................... 36
Figure 2.16 Monthly Income of Visitors .................................................................. 37
Figure 2.17 Quality Price Ratio ................................................................................ 37
Figure 2.18 Tourism Locations inJaflong ................................................................ 38
Figure 2.19 Tamabil, Sylhet ...................................................................................... 39
Figure 2.20 Sripur Park, Sylhet, ............................................................................... 40
Figure 2.21 Jointapur's Rajbari ............................................................................... 41
xii
Figure 2.22 Accommodation Facilities ..................................................................... 42
Figure 2.23 Transportation Facilities ....................................................................... 42
Figure 2.24 Security Facilities ................................................................................... 43
Figure 2.25 Monthly Income of Visitors .................................................................. 44
Figure 2.26 Quality Price Ratio ................................................................................ 44
xiii
NOMENCLATURES
BPC Bangladesh Parjantan Corporation
BTB Bangladesh Tourism Board
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GMTI The Global Muslim Travel Index
WTO World Trade Organization
MTBF Medium Term Budget Framework
OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation
SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences
ML Maximum Likelihood
2LL 2 Log Likelihood
AUC Area Under the Curve
ROC Receiver Operating Characteristic
PCP Percent Correctly Predicted
HL Hosmer and Lemeshow
LDC Least Developed Countries
xiv
CHAPTER-1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
Tourism simply refers to travelling for leisure, business or recreational purposes.

From this point of view it is clear that tourism and travelling go hand in hand. One
cannot talk of tourism without travel, and also cannot talk of travel without tourism.
Tourists usually travel and stay away from their normal areas or rather environment
for some time with an aim of getting involved in business, leisure or other purposes.
Those tourists who travel for leisure tend to target the wildlife and also other natural
sites. The tourists who travel for business tend to target conferences .The tourists
normally help in uplifting the economies of those countries they visit. Tourism tends
to make the world to be more interactive and a better place for everyone. Tourism is
known to be the world’s largest industry, where a lot of money is made .It is very
crucial area. Many countries around the world spend a lot of money, billions and
billions of dollars in tourism in order to ensure that it continues. As a major player in
economies of many countries, tourism provides employment especially in the service
industry in areas involving transportation, accommodation, security and
entertainment.
Tourism knows no borders. It involves even the locals in what is called local tourism.
So apart from tourists coming from other parts of the world, the local tourists also find
time to tour their own native country. These locals also find time to tour other
countries, and in the process tourists from other countries also tend to find time to tour
other countries as well, apart from the country of their own. This is just in a broad
way how tourism operates. Countries like the United States, Russia, Germany, China,
Australia and Brazil are known to spend heavily on tourism. This is just an indication
that tourism is not an area that can easily come to an end. In addition, even some
modified or rather artificial areas tend also to attract tourists a lot. Tourists can go to
any length to ensure that they are comfortable where they visit.
Forty years has elapsed of Bangladesh’s tourism industry, yet we still see it in a
nascent position in comparison to our neighboring countries. Despite having all the
1
potential to flourish, tourism in this country has been growing at a very slow pace.
Bangladesh is not known as a tourist destination in the international tourism market.
Only 0.3 million foreign tourists came to Bangladesh in 2010, of which more than 70
percent came for business and official purposes. The contribution of the earning from
tourism to the country’s GDP is less than 1 percent. The sector got recognition as an
industry in 1999. But it never received attention from the government to become a
vibrant industry. Whereas many countries which started much later than Bangladesh,
for example – Maldives, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos PDR – have developed
their tourism industry much faster than this country. In 1998 Bangladesh received
171,961 tourists and Cambodia received only 96,000 tourists. After 11 years in 2009,
Bangladesh could attract only 267,000 tourists and Cambodia more than 2 million
tourists by www.wttc.org. This comparison indicates discrepancy in the degree of
initiative by two different countries within a same span of time.
Current affairs are directly related to world tourism. If we consider the history of
world civilization we shall find that during the peace and prosperity, mobility of
tourists from one place to another rises. The same thing is happening in the twenty-
first century. In the area of the globe where political stability prevails and terrorist
activities don't prevail -tourism will boost up.
The lack of development of the tourism industry of Bangladesh can be attributed to

multiple reasons like less-prioritization of tourism by all previous governments, lack
of budgetary allocation and scarcity of trained people in the industry. There is also a
lack of publicity and marketing activities. We lag behind in projecting our attractions
to international tourists through advertisements in international print and electronic
media, as our neighboring countries do. We have to do this for enhancing the positive
image of our country and for introducing our prime tourist attractions as well as our
vibrant culture. But, there is a lack of sufficient budgetary allocation. We need to
develop an effective brand name for tourism. We have never tried to understand that
branding not only helps tourism of the country, it encourages foreign investment as
well. A tourism branding campaign called ‘Beautiful Bangladesh’ has been
developed, but according to the tourism stakeholders of the country it does not wholly
reflect the tourist attractions of the country. Tour operators who bring foreign tourists
are raising demands to mend it. Bangladesh, which has so many positive aspects,
2
needs to rebuild its brand as a country. Apart from the meager budgetary allocation of
the government, appropriate plans and programmes for tourism development – short
term, long term and medium term – was absent before 90’s. Furthermore, in the
planning process there were lots of discrepancies. Due to the absence of proper
planning, even some infrastructure developments that require a small budget could not
be accomplished. For attracting more foreign tourists, we need to turn tourist
attractions into tourism products i.e. finished products to sell. Appropriate
infrastructural development, super-structure development, introduction of waste
management systems and sustainability of the tourist attractions for our future
posterity are most essential. In figure 1.1 we can see that the nature beauty of cox’s
bazar sea beach.
Figure 1.1 Cox’s Bazar Sea Beach
We name Cox’s Bazar as our tourist capital but recreational activities on the beach are
very scanty. Tourists do not find any night-life activities, after spending the day at the
beach, but to sleep in hotel rooms. We should understand that tourists do not come
here to sleep idly in a hotel. They love to remain busy through experiencing different
memorable activities. We need to make the tourists busy in different activities all the
time and bring out money from their pockets. Tourists come to spend money not take
it back. On the other hand, whatever development has taken place at Cox’s Bazar is
unplanned and uncontrolled. Appropriate regulation is absent there. Still there is no
proper water and sewerage system; gas connection is absent; only a limited number of
flights land there.
3
Figure 1.2 Kuakata Sea Beach
In figure 1.2 we can see that the natural beauty of Kuakata a second priority beach for
tourists cannot be reached very easily. Though road communication has improved
from before, tourists tend to avoid going there more than once, due to the lack of
standard facilities. The archaeological sites in the north-west of Bangladesh are also
popular with tourists. But, due to the absence of interpreters and facilities, tourists do
not make overnight stays. Every year many domestic and foreign tourists visit
Paharpur a world heritage site. They can reach Paharpur in the late afternoon by
starting very early from Dhaka. But after a short while at Paharpur, the sun sets. So
they become worried where to make a night halt, because there are no hotels at
Naogaon or Joypurhat district town. At the other famous archaeological sites, proper
interpretation signage and educated guides are not found. Sufficient numbers of litter
bins are not installed along the sites.
Tourism friendly infrastructure is required for smooth and free movement of tourists
of all ages, and even for the physically challenged tourists. In view of this,
Bangladesh needs to develop accommodations, eateries, good communication and
transportation systems, toilet facilities, parking facilities etc. near the tourist spots of
the country. It needs to develop international standard facilities at all the tourist spots
of Bangladesh.
4
Figure 1.3 Piyain River, Jaflong, Sylhet
Figure 1.3 represents another tourism spot Jaflong is a hill station and popular tourist
destination in the Division of Sylhet, Bangladesh. It is located in Gowainghat Upazila
of Sylhet District and situated at the border between Bangladesh and the Indian state
of Meghalaya, overshadowed by subtropical mountains and rainforests. Jaflong is
famous for its stone collections and is home of the Khasi tribe.
1.2 Different Types of Tourism Sector
The Bangladesh Parjatan Corporation classifies tourism into various types: site
tourism, Business tourism, Education tourism, Religious tourism and other purpose.
According to statistics reported by Bangladesh Tourism Board (BTB), in 2009
majority of tourists came to Bangladesh for tourism purpose about 46% which was
closely followed by business tourism 41.8%. In addition to these two types of tourism,
another popular type is religious tourism about 3.4% where the purpose of the
religious visitors to visit the religious sites or events in the country.
1.2.1 Site Tourism
In Bangladesh, tourists travelling for leisure usually come to enjoy the natural beauty
of the country. As indicated above, these tourists constitute the majority share (i.e.
46%) of the tourist inflow into the country (BTB, 2009). This clearly indicates a need
to preserve and protect these spots, as well as provide necessary infrastructural
development support to develop.
5
1.2.2 Business Tourism
Around 42% of tourists visit Bangladesh for business purposes. A number of

successful international business houses have set up local entities in Bangladesh,
whereby a large number of expatriates travel to Bangladesh to work/conduct business.
Due to ever expanding RMG sector, large numbers of potential buyers and there
delegates are required to visit the country on a regular basis.
1.2.3 Education Tourism
Education tourism is for students who want to enroll into educational institutions in
the country. Many universities and other graduate level institutions organize
international conferences and seminars where delegates from all over the world
attend. These foreign delegates all fall under the category of educational tourism and
they constituted 2.4% of the total number of tourists who visited the country.
1.2.4 Religious Tourism
Bangladesh is a Muslim majority country and it organizes the Bishwa Ijtema which is
one of the largest congregation of Muslims. This annual event alone attracts a huge
number of tourists from Muslim world and constitutes 3.4% of the total tourist inflow
into Bangladesh. Other religious groups in the country are relatively much smaller in
number; however their events do attract tourists although in a smaller scale. The
Global Muslim Travel Index (GMTI) 2015 developed by Master Card, a payment
network provider and Crescent Rating the World’s leading authority on Halal-friendly
travel ranked Bangladesh 18th on the list of destinations, which are members of the
Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Malaysia came first for OIC destination,
followed by Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Last year
Bangladesh received 67,000 Muslim arrivals, which is 19 percent of the total arrivals
and some 108 million Muslim travelers spent $145billion globally representing 10
percent of the entire travel economy, it said. The Muslim travel market forecast to
grow to 150 million visitors a year by 2020, and their annual spending will reach
about $200billion, according to the study.
6
Table 1.1 Global Muslim Travel Index
Rank Destinations Score

1 Malaysia 83.8
2 Turkey 73.8
3 United Arab Emirates 72.1
4 Saudi Arabia 71.3
5 Qatar 68.2
6 Indonesia 67.5
7 Oman 66.7
8 Jordan 66.4
9 Morocco 64.4
10 Brunei 64.3
11 Tunisia 64.0
12 Kuwait 63.9
13 Iran 63.9
14 Bahrain 63.6
15 Egypt 62.3
16 Maldivs 62.3
17 Kazakhstan 60.5
18 Bangladesh 60.2
19 Algeria 58.5
20 Azerbaijan 58.2
Source: Master Card-Crescent Rating Global Muslim Travel Index 2015
1.2.5 Medical Tourism
Medical tourism is popular in countries where the medical institutions and

professionals are competent and their services are affordable to the patients.
Bangladesh may have improved performance in the Millennium Development Goals
(MDG) but we are still far away from improving our hospitals and medical centers to
standards which may attract medical tourists. This is an untapped market, whereby
private sector investments may improve service quality to the competent levels. The
government needs to take emergency regulatory measures to improve the condition of
our hospitals and improve the quality of the doctors they employ. Medical tourism
also picks up when medical institutions are seen as reliable with a good record rather
than public health care centers which lack hygiene and mistreat patients. Additionally,
it is seen imperative that the legal structure of the nation allows for legal action in
case of medical malpractice. In Bangladesh, the legal structure is plagued with high
case backlogs, and archaic laws which impair speedy delivery of verdicts. A
restructuring of the legal system is required, especially in the case of medical
malpractice cases for Bangladesh to attract medical tourism.
7
1.2.6 Other Tourism
Other forms of tourism includes Bicycle touring, Boat sharing, Cultural tourism, Dark
tourism, Rural tourism, River cruise, Nautical tourism, Halal tourism, Sports tourism,
Slum tourism, Virtual tour, Walking tour, Wildlife tourism and Water tourism. Very
often, people come for short visits to meet relatives, participating sports and
international awareness program etc. In 2009, 13,286 tourists visit Bangladesh for
these purposes (Das and Chakraborty, 2012).
1.3 Effect of Government Sector and Private Sector
There are two types of sector which are very affected on tourism, one is government
sector and other is private sector. Tourism is a diversified industry, which requires
cooperation, and very good relations between public and private sector in order to
survive and flourish. To develop our tourism sector the Relations between the two
sectors need to be close, incessant and well balanced. We discuss briefly in next
subsections.
1.3.1 Government Sector
The role of the government sector in tourism has changed over the last 40 years. In
the early years of tourism development government sector played a pioneering role.
This was happening because huge investments were required to provide the basic
facilities and infrastructure to create destinations and attract growth (WTO, 2000).
“The purpose of government sector is to establish the framework by which a country
can develop and foster the good of all its citizens, while protecting the rights of the
individual” (Doswell, 1997). A country’s institution generally defines human rights
and the good of the citizens. Then the political party in power has to develop a
tourism policy always in respect to the institution. Consequently, after developing
tourism policy the public sector is also responsible to implement those policies and
plans (Doswell, 1997). As the tourism started to grow the private sector become
increasingly interested in the business opportunities it offered. This had as a result the
development of hotel industry, the rapid expansion of tour operators and travel agents
(WTO, 2000).
8
There are five main areas of public sector involvement in tourism, and these are:
coordination, planning, legislation and regulation, entrepreneur, and stimulation
(IUOTO, 1974; Mill & Morrison, 1985).
Coordination is one of the most important roles of public sector in tourism and this is
because the implementation of all others roles is dependent on the ability of the public
sector to coordinate and balance its various roles in tourism development process
(Hall, 1994). Coordination is vital to all the levels of public sector in order to avoid
duplications of resources between public and private sector, and also to develop
effective tourism strategies (Hall, 1994). Coordination usually refers to the problem of
relating units or decisions so that they fit in with one another, are not at cross-
purposes, and operate in ways that are reasonably consistent and coherent (Spann,
1979). Tourism is an industry, which a lot of decision makers are involved, and that’s
why public sector is crucial to participate by coordinating all this process of the
tourism development. To this effect, the participation of public sector in tourism
development process is essential.
Planning is widely recognized as an important element in tourism development.

“Planning for tourism occurs in a number of forms (development, infrastructure,
promotion and marketing); structures (different government organizations); and scales
(international, national, regional and local)” (Hall, 1994). However, when planning
mentioned in tourism literature tends to be an amalgam of economic, social and
environmental considerations, which reflects the diversity of the factors that influence
tourism development (Heeley, 1981). In many ways planning may be regarded as
going hand in hand with tourism policy, therefore tourism planning reflect the
economic, environmental and social goals of government and public sector (Hall,
1994). Nevertheless, public sector participation in tourism development is essential
because tourism planning has to include environmental considerations, social impacts
of tourism and demands for greater community participation something that is
grueling for the private sector to do so. Thus, Lickorish (1991) argued, “Without
public sector’s involvement in tourism planning, development of the industry will
lack cohesion, direction, and short terms initiatives might well jeopardize longer-term
potential”. Therefore, public sector is the conciliator between the competing interests
of the tourism planning process.
9
The legislative and regulative powers of the public sector, directly or indirectly
impose on the tourism industry. Public sector involvement ranges from policies on
passports and visas, environmental protection and taxation policy will significantly
influence the growth of tourism (Hall, 1994). In practice this consists of
administrating the laws, collecting revenues, operating social services, allocating
funds and generally running the country (Doswell, 1997). Moreover, the nature and
scope of governmental regulatory and legislative powers will depend on the national
political system within which a government is situated.
The role of public sector as entrepreneur in tourism development is closely related to

the concept of the “devalorisation of capital” (Damette, 1980). This is the process by
which the state subsidizes part of the cost of production, for instance by assisting in
the provision of infrastructure or by investing in a tourism project (Damette, 1980).
Public sector could also contribute in the marketing process of the destination.
Something which is very crucial because for example if marketing and promotion was
let entirely to the hands of the private sector, then just some specific areas of the
destination could be promoted. But by the contribution of the public sector to the
marketing process, different kind of areas could be promoted such as rural and
mountainous areas. Therefore, public sector could be the mean of equal distribution of
tourism development in a destination, something that would be almost impossible
with just the private sector enterprises (WTO, 2002). And this is because private
sector mostly be concerned about profit and not the social good. Moreover, tourism
development in a destination requires infrastructure and superstructure (for already
developed areas), which means that only with the participation of the public sector
these investments would equally distributed to the destination (Hall, 1994). For
example, in the island of Crete without the public sector involvement to the tourism
development process, just the coastal areas would have transport networks while the
mountainous and rural regions would not receive any infrastructure investments.
Tourism development could be stimulated from the public sector. Firstly with
financial incentives such as low interest loans, subsidizes and depreciation allowance
on tourist accommodation. Secondly, sponsoring research for the general benefit of
the tourism industry rather than for specific individual organizations and associations
(Mill and Morrison, 1995). These two elements are important to give a boost to the
10
tourism development in a destination in order to attract investments by the
individuals. Therefore, public sector involvement is essential for stimulating the
tourism development.
The Government of Bangladesh has planned to increase 8% of G.D.P in the vision

2021 to make the country a middle income country in world. For that purpose the rate
of investment should be increased to 35-40% from the existing 24-25%. Public
private partnership is treated as an important tool for the development of the country’s
tourism sector. It is also an excellent way to involve the private sector for promoting
tourism and thereby increase investment. In a developing country like Bangladesh,
government has to give more importance to the social welfare and essential service
sector than tourism sector due to budget constraints. For that reason, government
tourism organizations usually cannot provide competitive service in comparable to the
private sectors. In this context, public private partnership is more suitable for the
growth of this sector in developing countries.
The government has several active policies and legislations for the tourism sector
namely the Bangladesh Tourism Board Act, the tourism policy 2010, the Medium
Term Budget Framework (MTBF) and the perspective plan 2021. These policies and
legislations have been promulgated to develop and promote the tourism sector. Main
features from some of these legislations are provided below.
1.3.2 Bangladesh Tourism Board Act.
1) To construct various rules under the law where the main objective is to fill in the
gap of existing tourism rules and let regulations proceed.
2) To develop Tourism Industries through various planning related activities and side
by side give advice as well as directions.
3) To create general awareness regarding tourism protection, development and

exploration.
4) To execute responsible tourism through creation of some helping hand on behalf of

government like as personal sector, local people, local admin, NGO, women
federation, media.
11
5) To create better communication channel for the International Tourists
Organizations in Bangladesh with both government and private tourism related
organizations.
6) To create a strong and safe foothold for the Bangladeshi Tourist by coordinating
with respective government organizations.
7) To create a tourism friendly environment in Bangladesh and to market its tourism

potential in both domestic and foreign nations.
8) To develop human resource for tourism sector by creating training facilities and to
provide them with the right directions.
9) To attract tourists by maintaining quality and relevant material which in turn can
provide smooth tourism service and ensuring necessary actions that need to be taken
for maintenance.
10) To ensure the participation of physically challenged people.
11) To protect women rights and ensure their participation in the tourism sector.
12) To research on tourism industry, to survey international markets and to analyze

the data.
13) To support the small tourism based industries and to provide them the right
direction.
14) To organize tourism related fairs and to encourage tourism through various
promotional techniques.
15) To create a database regarding tourism prospects.
16) To comply with whichever duty imposed by the Government.
Bangladesh is a developing country in South Asia, located between 20°34c to 26°38c

north latitude and 88°01c to 92°42c east longitude, with an area of 147,570 square km
and a population of 140 million. It is bordered on the west, north, and east by India,
on the southeast by Myanmar, and the Bay of Bengal to the south (Bangladesh
Parjatan Corporation, 2009). To get better understanding about present status of
12
tourism in Bangladesh and its prospect as a contributor in GDP we can go through the
report of World Travel & Tourism Council (2014). According to them, the direct
contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP is expected to be BDT627.9bn (4.1% of
total GDP) in 2014, rising by 6.5% p.a. to BDT1252.8bn (4.4%) in 2025 (inconstant
2014 prices).
Table 1.2 Growth and Contribution of Tourism in GDP of Bangladesh.
Total Contribution to Total Contribution to

Percentage of Percentage
Year GDP GDP
GDP Growth
(US $ in bn) (Local currency in bn)
2004-2005 5.04679 391.421 4.45 13.19
2005-2006 5.95598 461.937 4.93 18.02
2006-2007 6.27446 486.638 4.89 5.54
2007-2008 6.71710 520.968 4.95 7.05
2008-2009 6.51813 505.536 4.46 -2.96
2009-2010 6.63219 514.382 4.26 1.74
2010-2011 6.78888 526.535 4.10 2.36
2011-2012 7.18953 557.609 4.09 5.90
2012-2013 7.67720 595.432 4.12 6.78
2013-2014 8.0961 627.921 4.09 5.45
Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2014, Ministry of Finance and 2014 Bangladesh Economic Impact Report, World
Trade and Tourism Council.
1.3.3 Private Sector Participation
In most Asian and Pacific countries and areas, the private sector is recognized as a
major stakeholder since it is largely responsible for providing tourism services. So
Bangladesh has to encourage private sector for this potential sector. One of the most
important issues has been how to attract greater private sector participation, including
development of partnership between the public and private sectors.
Bangladesh also needs to change its visa policy. It may go for visa waivers for the top
tourist generating countries and introduce visa on arrival systems for tourist groups.
Nepal provides us visa on arrival but we don’t reciprocate, which hinders tourist to
come from Nepal. Immigration formalities at the land ports should also be simplified
for foreign tourists.
13
1.4 Importance of Tourism
Tourism is already accepted as an industry. Tourism is important for the growth and
development of a developing country like Bangladesh. The advantages and
disadvantages of Tourism in Bangladesh is discussed below:
1.4.1 Advantages of Tourism
Now-a-days tourism is the most flourishing and largest industry in Bangladesh.

Growing very rapidly it employs millions of people in Bangladesh. It is a travel based
recreation that provides relief from daily routine of monotonous life a change in place,
climate.
 Tourism helps in the development of economy of a country. It helps in the

overall GDP development of a country.
 It helps the local people to get in touch with the people and country.
 Tourism gives opportunity to people of various cultures to assimilate together.
 People belonging to various cultures meet together and understand each other.
This gives them an opportunity to build respect for each other’s.
 The tourists spend helps the local people can earn their livelihood etc.
1.4.2 Disadvantages of Tourism
Tourism may cause disruption in socio-economic, cultural setup of a country.
 It may also lead to environmental hazards such as environmental pollution

due to use of cigars, plastic bags.
 In order to attract more tourists and earn more profits sprawling resorts are
built cutting down thousands of caesarians trees beside sea beaches. These
resorts destroy both scenic beauty of the place by paying no attention to local
architecture and ecology.
 As a result of indiscriminate construction of high rises provision of water
supply and waste disposal facilitate many fatal ends.
 Overuse of natural wealth is a serious problem, tourist overuse of mountain
trails resulting in abundance in dumping of waste products, food tins etc.
14
 Damage to wildlife parks is a visible phenomenon, ground vegetation remains
devastated under tourists’ shoes, and food habits of animal impaired ultimately
landscape loses scenic beauty.
 Tourism may have damaging socio-cultural effects. Local people demean
themselves to earn more or imitate alien culture, new life styles, and foreign
culture. etc.
Once the natural beauty and manmade beauties are lost tourism loses its charm and
attraction and will collapse. So today environment friendly or green tourism are being
introduced by tourism industries.
The World Tourism Organization reports the following ten countries as the most
visited in terms of the number of international travelers in 2013.
Table 1.3 Reports on World Tourism Organization
Rank Country Region International International Change(2011 Change(2012

tourist tourist to 2012) to 2013)
arrivals arrivals (%) (%)
(2012) (2013)
1 France Europe 83.0 million 84.7 million 1.8 2.0
North
2 USA 66.7 million 69.8 million 6.3 4.7
America
3 Spain Europe 57.5 million 60.7 million 2.3 5.6
4 China Asia 57.7 million 55.7 million 0.3 3.5
5 Italy Europe 46.4 million 47.7 million 0.5 2.9
6 Turkey Europe 35.7 million 37.8 million 3.0 5.9

7 Germany Europe 30.4 million 31.5 million 7.3 3.7
8 UK Europe 29.3 million 31.2 million 0.1 6.4
9 Russia Europe 25.7 million 28.4 million 13.5 10.2
10 Thailand Asia 22.4 million 26.5 million 16.2 18.8
1.5 Possible Positive Impact of Tourism
 People will get job and labour will get employment.

 Literacy rate will grow up.
 Infrastructural development will increase.
 Law and order will improve.
 Living standard will increase.
 Girls will be married off without dowry.
15
 Economic structure will raise.
 Government will get revenue.
1.6 Problems of Tourism in Our Locations
Cox’s Bazar, Kuakata and Jaflong are endowed with great tourism potentiality with
its beauty, tribal culture, historical places, forests etc. Unfortunately we could not
develop the infrastructural facilities which are pre-conditionally needed to turn a place
of interest into a tourist destination. Without developing these facilities, we may not
reach our goal. The other problems, which have been identified, are as follows:
 Political instability and unrest probably are the major reasons, which prevent
foreign visitors from visiting Bangladesh.
 In case of Bangladesh, we claim to have tourist attractions but in terms of an
accessibility (i.e. accommodation facility, transportation facility, security,
daily cost) we leg much behind than many other South and South-east Asian
countries.
 Most of the visitors have a negative image of Bangladesh. They depict
Bangladesh as a flood-stricken country with dirty and poor inhabitants,
lawless city streets, in sanitary and unhygienic conditions etc.
 The way of communication of kuakata is very poor. There is no permanent bus
stand and there are also problems for the transport fare for the local buses
besides the conditions of the buses are not good.
 A tourist needs personal security and safety. We can’t develop our tourism
sector unless we can guarantee security and safety requirements to the visitors.
 The hotels has seat problems. They can’t offer the visitors sufficient seats in
the peak season. There is also lack of sufficient standard restaurant.
 There is no permanent life saving man and signal light station in the beach, to
aware the tourist.
 There is no good standard hospital and super market.
 Kuakata is very much important for casting trade. There is also a great chance
for the development of the costing trade. But lack of proper facilities its
decreasing day by day.
 There is no much facility for the foreign tourist.
16
1.7 Literature Review
Tourism has become one of the largest and fastest growing industries, not only in
Bangladesh and the Asia Pacific but also in the global economy. The objectives of the
study have emerged from the research problems identified earlier. The main thrust of
this study has concentrated on the issues relevant to the development of tourism
location in Bangladesh. There are many famous tourism location in Bangladesh such
as Cox’s Bazar, Sundarban, Rangamati, Kuakata, Jaflong, etc. Many researchers
investigated on this field. In this study we have investigated several tourism locations
in Bangladesh (Cox’s Bazar, Kuakata, Jaflong).
Growth of the tourism industry of a country largely depends on domestic and global
environment. The situation of the globe as well as current situation of the tourism
sector in Bangladesh was also discussed. The study is based on both primary data and
secondary data. Time period of the study is in between 1st February, 2014to 31st
January 2015. Through estimating a regression equation, authors observe that for
Bangladesh- spots and cost of services have positive impact on the tourism sector.
Authors suggested that tourism should be acted as an important ingredient of
economic development of the country for which synergy may be applied between
tourism marketing plan and its implementation process. Integrated communications
channel should be used to develop tourism sector of the country investigated by Ali
and Mohsin (2008).
This thesis has examined the extent of tourism in GDP and at the same time how
positively it is growing. Without maintaining proper growth in the sector, it may be
lac behind in making its future contribution in national economy. From statistical test,
it is found that the contribution is already significant. But it can contribute further by
creating more employment, generating demand for accommodations and food,
improving transportation, and as whole branding Bangladesh to the world. This is a
big sub-sector of the national economy investigated by Das and Chakraborty (2012).
This dissertation is focusing the present strengths and weaknesses of tourism industry
in Bangladesh and the ways to implement niche market strategy. Findings indicate
that four iconic products can play significant role in the total earnings in this sector.
Finally, this suggests how niche market strategy will help the policy maker to
17
differentiate the tourists market and customize their service to achieve strategic
marketing objectives and solve present downward earnings. The following
recommendations will help to the authority to develop its four Iconic Products:
Firstly, for beaches authority should establish more hotels, motels and security.
Authority can encourage local people to participate for their own economic benefit.
Local authority should upgrade the infrastructure of beach sites. Secondly, for eco-
tourism authority should protect the green environment and forest also. Local
authority should initiative to involve tribals in the process of eco-tourism. Thirdly, for
historical place authority should promote its historical places and marketing these
places through promotional mix. It is so important to preserve historical places.
Finally, for archaeological sites authority should develop communication
(transportation) facilities to reach these sites and establish standard hotel and
restaurants nearest to sites. It is necessary to train up the human resource of different
sites office to guide the foreign tourists properly investigated by Sarker and Begum
(2013).
Hanaoka et al. (2007) discussed the feasibility of using logistic regression and
artificial neural networks in predicting a respondents’ decision to select emergency
trip destination. It is therefore concluded that the same specification among the
logistic regression and the neural network models could be used to compare the
performance of the models. Logistic regression and neural network models appear,
overall, to perform with similar accuracy on the data used in this study. However, it
has also been observed that in this study ANN models did not perform better than the
logistic regression model.
Nissan et al. (2010) indicated the main variables affecting tourism activity and shows
a feedback effect between income and tourism. Findings indicate that tourism not
only supplies necessary funds to finance firms' activities, but also stimulates the local
firms' productivity and creates new job opportunities that increase the country's
welfare. Variables that have important effects on tourism activity, such as
entrepreneurship and prices have also been considered.
We have used the binary logistic regression model to determine the factors that
significantly affect the performance of a company in the stock market and found the
binary logistic regression method to help the investor to form an opinion about the
18
shares to be invested. It may be observed that eight financial ratios can classify
companies up to a 74.6% level of accuracy into two categories (“good” or “poor”),
based on their rate of return Dutta et al. (2012).
Here we have examined the influence of destination image of Jeju Island on tourists'
satisfaction and future behavior as well as to suggest ideas of Jeju Island to improve
its current marketing strategy. The image of Jeju Island was assessed on four factors:
"environment", "attractions", "value for money" and "climate." Three factors,
"environment", "attractions" and "value for money", have a significant effect on
satisfaction and also influence future behavior. The structural equation model (SEM)
was used to verify the relationship between image, satisfaction and future behavior.
The SEMs were analyzed to find the differences between the four segments in relation
to the perceived image of Jeju. Different segments have different image perceptions
of Jeju Island. The different dimensions of Jeju Island image have different influences
on the different segments of tourists. The findings of this study contribute to
development of the marketing strategies to satisfy tourists' needs on Jeju Island, Korea
investigated by Park and Njite (2010).
Ansari et al. (2006) observed that in St. Martin’s Island of Bangladesh, although
tourism provides a mixed consent of in its benefits and impact on the island, the result
of the study shows that support of the tourism provides a mixed consent of benefits
and impacts on the island, the result of the study shows that support of the tourism is
strong among the local residents and they are also in favor of its expansion. They
suggest that directing tourism growth towards local needs, interest and limit can
greatly enhance tourism’s value to the community and help to create a sustainable
tourism industry.
From the very past Bangalees are highly attached with the monsoon season. So we
find a touch of the season in our every occasion and festivals. Most of the countries of
the world are deprived from the blessings and beauty of the monsoon climate. So,
every year lots of tourists from different countries (like Norway, Germany,
Switzerland, Russia) come to visit different countries which are blessed by monsoon
climate. They also come to visit Bangladesh. This article has tried to conduct a
descriptive research to represent the current scenario with the emphasis on future
impact of Monsoon tourism for the development of Bangladeshi tourism sector and
19
also tried to focus on the future of Bangladesh tourism sector by introducing new
phenomena monsoon tourism investigated by Sadia and Nafisa (2014).
Afroz and Hasanuzzaman (2012) tried to identify the relative factors that satisfy
tourist interest. Lack of proper planning, lack of coordination among administration,
lack of transportation and lack of accommodation facilities are the major problems of
tourism at Bandarban. To overcome these problems Government should take
initiatives by establishing a good transportation system, training institution,
establishing tourist zone, announcing Wi-Fi zone in the tourist destination.
Government can introduce mountain tourism, culture tourism, rural tourism and pro-
poor tourism at Bandarban. On 17.11.2012 Prime Minister has announced Bandarban
will be known as a Tourist Zone in near future. So that are no so far that Bandarban is
the next prospective tourist spot from where Bangladesh can earn huge foreign
currency.
Tourism is a special and complex industry and its promotion has to be directed at a
large number of people in various lands of different socio-economic structures having
different needs, tests, attitudes, expectations and behavior pattern. Therefore, planning
effective marketing promotional strategy must penetrate in the people’s tests and
preferences investigated by Shafi (1985).
Jahangir (1998) argued that Bangladesh’s share in the total arrivals in the South Asian
region is too small. Almost all the countries of South Asia, backed by organized
efforts, are far ahead of Bangladesh in respect of development of tourism.
Hossain and Nazmin (2005) depicted that according to the foreign tourists of
Bangladesh, scenic beauty ranked first, cost of service second, attitude of people
third, and so on down to facilities ranking the tenth.
Fayissa et al. (2007) found that receipts from the tourism industry significantly
contribute both to the current level of gross domestic product and the economic
growth of Sub-Saharan African countries as do investments in physical and human
capital. Their finding implies that African economies can enhance their short-run
economic growth by strategically strengthening their tourism industries.
20
Islam and Islam (2006) argued that Bangladesh is a country of Asian region holding
high potentiality of tourism. Since long past, Bangladesh was an attractive destination
to the tourists. But at present her position is not significant in terms of international
tourism.
There is an increasing trend in the arrivals of foreign tourist in Bangladesh, foreign

exchange earnings and contribution of Bangladesh Parjatan Corporation (BPC) to
national exchequer. The maximum tourists came in Bangladesh during October to
March. Largest portion of tourists visiting in Bangladesh came from the countries of
Asian region. India occupied the first position in the list of tourists importing
countries in Bangladesh. Most of the foreign tourists come in Bangladesh by airway.
Concerned authorities should take steps to create positive image of the country to all
over the world especially in the countries of Europe, America and Middle East. The
legal formalities are also need to be relaxed. Further, the authorities should develop
the infrastructure facilities of the existing tourist spots. Amin (2007) argued that travel
and tourism is now one of the largest industries in the world contributing over 10% to
global GDP. Economically, travel and tourism creates jobs and contributes to a
country’s GDP as well as bringing in capital investment and exports. Nath (2007)
observed that level of satisfaction with the overall tourism facilities and services is at
a level of 51% .The tourists judged by very poorly the level of night entertainment,
tour information, advertisement, and traveling agency services.
Alauddin et al. (2014)found that the present scenario of tourism sector in Bangladesh
is reasonably satisfying, although it has some limitations & weaknesses such as
accommodation problem, Poor Image of Bangladesh, Transportation problem, Lack
of proper publicity, Complicated visa and travel formalities, Lack of initiative to
preserve, conserve and maintain the tangible tourism products, lack of security,
unstable political situation, Lack of required fund allocation in national budget, lack
of international standard hotel etc. In the light of the identified limitations and
weaknesses, some recommendations have been suggested towards its possible
improvements in the future. Therefore, this study concludes that directing tourism
growth towards local needs, interest and limit can greatly enhance tourism’s value to
the community and help to create a sustainable tourism industry. Khandaker (2014)
discussed the stressful nature of tourism that demands an inclusion of the concept
21
“sustainability” which attempts to find a balance between these impacts to create an
improved quality of life for the host community and the destination. This thesis
deliberately attempts to portray the strategies and tactics for developing
environmental, economic, and socio-cultural sustainability in tourism industry of
Bangladesh. Afterward the study tries to find out potentials and constraints to the
development of sustainable tourism in Bangladesh and found that it is high time to
develop tourism which is, environmentally and ecologically sustainable, economically
viable and socially and psychologically acceptable. The benefits that are received
from tourism should be fairly distributed, and then only will tourism be participatory,
and, thus, the rights of local residents will be properly recognized, and tourism will be
responsible and sustainable.
22
CHAPTER-2
DATA COLLECTION
2.1 Introduction
As a tourism destination, Bangladesh is truly hard to beat. Bangladesh definitely

offers a lot to watch and enjoy and do. In Bangladesh, where Bangla is spoken, is one
of the most beautiful countries in South Asia, Bangladesh has tremendous economic
potential. Its tropical beach resorts on the Bay of Bengal are counted as a paradise for
the sun vacationers. The splendor of its six seasons, the world's longest natural beach
at Cox's Bazar, the cloud forests of the Chittagong Hill Tracts and the country's rich
flora and fauna fascinate tourists. The Saint Martin’s offers excellent scuba diving
opportunities. Tea and mango plantations of the country can attract tourists. The
historic city of Sylhet and the port city of Chittagong have tourist value.
Promoting tourism products successfully requires a context that allows the audience
to appreciate what a country has to offer to visitors. That context is the overall image
of a country. To establish Bangladesh as potential tourist destination like India, Nepal,
Srilanka, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and some other popular tourist destinations,
we may also create some distinct and different set of tourism activities here in
Bangladesh.
Today’s tourism industries become one of the most important factors in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) contribution in worldwide. It plays a significant role in
socio-economic development of a country. World Travel and Tourism Council claims
that the direct contribution of Travel and Tourism to GDP is (4.2% of total GDP) in
2012. There are many famous tourism locations in Bangladesh such as Cox’s Bazar,
Sundarban, Rangamati, Kuakata, Jaflong, etc. Many researchers investigated on this
field. In this study we have investigated several tourism locations in Bangladesh
(Cox’s Bazar, Kuakata, Jaflong).
In this study primary data was collected by means of a questionnaire survey and
interview with the tourist in different tourism locations of Bangladesh (Cox’s Bazar,
23
Kuakata and jaflong). Questions were asked to know the information of visitors like
Age, Sex, Educational Qualification, Current Status, Income, Kinds of
Accommodation, Kinds of Transportation, Average Daily Cost per Person, Why
Come to (Cox's Bazar, Kuakata and Jaflong), Accommodation Facility,
Transportation Facility, Security, Quality Price ratio, Times in visit, Visit here again,
Good enough etc. Some of them visited the locations of Bangladesh (Cox’s Bazar,
Kuakata and jaflong) many times and some were for the first time and their
excitement was more than the people who go there so often. On the other hand, the
person who went to Kuakata more than once and stayed there during a longer time
had experienced something more than others. So, the information given by all those
people might rather scarce due to their unconscious and unaware motive. To get the
most valid research data, information should have been collected by spending ten
days intervals in selected locations and about 1500 data information were collected in
the research area practically and examining a large group of people which is not
possible all the time. In figure 2.1 represents our selected locations.
Figure 2.1 Tourism Locations in Bangladesh
24
2.2 Cox’s Bazar
Miles of golden sands, towering cliffs, surfing waves, rare conch shells, colorful
pagodas, Buddhist temples and tribes, delightful seafood—this is Cox's Bazar, the
tourist capital of Bangladesh, Once a sleepy little fishing town, its industry has been
boosted over the years with the influx of thousands of tourists. Everyone who travels
to Bangladesh always ensures that they visit Cox’s Bazar, as it is the longest natural
sandy beach in the world, at a length of 120 kilometers. Although this breathtaking
beach is considered to be part of the attractions in Bangladesh, beautification projects
and developments have been introduced to grow Cox’s Bazar into a prime holiday
destination.
Cox’s Bazar lies approximately a hundred and fifty kilometers outside Chittagong and
its name was derived from an army officer by the name of Cox, who passed away in
1798. Cox's Bazar and its adjoin areas have a lot of things to see and places deserve
visit by the tourists: Himchari, Inani, Maheskhali, Ramu, Sonadia Island, this magical
holiday destination sees approximately eighty to a hundred and twenty thousand
visitors in the peak season times, and in the off-peak seasons an estimated fifteen to
twenty five thousand tourists.
Figure 2.2 Tourism Locations in Cox’s Bazar
25
In order to keep Cox’s Bazar as attractive as possible and to improve facilities to
increase the tourism industry, beautification projects and conservation programs have
been initiated. To create an environmentally friendly town, the first goal was to add
landscaped gardens and parks to the town, as part of its facelift. Scattered park
benches that allow visitors to rest amongst the tranquility of the gardens while
soaking in the splendor of Cox’s Bazar have also been installed. The beach is the
greatest attraction in the town, and therefore the project plans include putting up
signal boards on the beach, shark safety zone indicators, rescue teams, searchlights, a
first aid centre and other facilities and features to improve safety and enjoyment on
the sandy beaches.
2.2.1 Cox’s Bazar Tourist Attractions
There are many tourist attractions around Cox’s Bazar, which are easily accessible by
Jeeps and in some cases cars.
 Himchari: Is famous for Himchari Waterfall and natural beauty. It is

located about 8 km south of Cox’s Bazar. During the winter dry season,
the waterfall dwindles but in the rainy season it is fabulous. Besides a
beach drive to Himchari is an exotic experience.
Figure 2.3 Himchari Waterfall
26
 Inani Beach: A Pristine rocky beach with corals all around. It is bordered
by hills and forests and is located only 32km south of Cox’s Bazar. It can
also be accessed via Himchari.
Figure 2.4 The road between Himchari and Inani Beach
 Ramu: A typical Buddhist village located 16 kilometers away from Cox's

Bazar. It is accessible from the main highway leading to Chittagong. The
village accommodates monasteries, khyangs and pagodas. There are
images of Buddha in gold, bronze and other metals inlaid with precious
stones inside the pagodas. Temple on the Baghkhali River houses relics
along with a 13 feet high bronze statue of Buddha rested on a six feet high
pedestal. Wood carvings here is delicate and refined. In the village
weavers ply their trade in open workshops and craftsmen make handmade
cigars.
 Teknaf: A drive to this small town called Teknaf which is about 80km
from Cox’s Bazar is a memorable experience as the road goes alongside
the beautiful Naf river and through forested hilly roads. Teknaf is the
southernmost point of Bangladesh and is bordered by Myanmar.
 Island-Hopping: Hopping to Sonadia, Maheshkhali and Saint Martin's
islands are certain to become unforgettable experiences for every visitor.
27
2.3 Limitations
Traditional cultural life style is fading.

Price hike of the essentials & local community is suffering much.
Weak drainage system & wastes are drained to the sea beach.
Rakhain community is becoming smaller in their numbers.
Hill cutting is common and uncontrollable which is obstacle of our natural
beauty.
2.4 Discussion about Survey Data in Cox’s Bazar
In this subsection we discuss about the opinion of the visitors in Cox’s Bazar
regarding accommodation facility, transportation facility, security, income and quality
price ratio.
2.4.1 Accommodation Facilities
0%
8%
15%
Poor
Average
32% Good
Very Good
45% Excellent
Opinion of accommodation facilities of the visitors

Figure 2.5 Accommodation Facilities
Figure-2.5 represents the opinion of the tourists regarding the accommodation

facilities of Cox’s Bazar. This chart also shows that most of the visitors (about 45 )
stated their opinion about accommodation facilities as good because most of the
visitors usually stay in hotel and the hotel facilities in Cox’s bazar is very well. None
of them response as excellent accommodation facilities exist due to the
accommodation cost is high with respect to facilities.
28
2.4.2 Transportation Facilities
3% 5%
13% Poor
24% Average
Good
Very Good
55% Excellent
Opinion of transportation facilities of the visitors

Figure 2.6 Transportation Facilities
Figure-2.6 represents the ratio of transportation facilities of the visitors. This chart
shows that maximum number of visitors (about 55 ) stated their opinion about
transportation facilities as good because the transportation system to reach Cox’s
bazar from any part of our country is moderately good due to availability of bus(A/C
,Non-A/C), train, launch, plane etc. On the other hand 5% visitors feel that the
transportation facilities to Cox’s bazar is poor because the transportation system is not
enough, besides about 3% visitors response excellent due to the high fair of
transportation system.
2.4.3 Security
3%
7%
Poor
18%
Average
30%
Good
Very Good
42%
Excellent
Opinion about security facilities of the visitors
Figure 2.7 Security Facilities
29
Figure-2.7 represents the ratio of securities facilities of the visitors. This chart also
shows that highest number of visitors (about 42 ) stated their opinion about
securities facilities is good. Bangladesh Porjoton Corporation take some remarkable
initiatives in terms of security like arranging life guard at the sea beach, update the
weather signal system etc. besides about 3% visitors response poor because
sometimes some of the visitors lost their lives (about six) in last year due to the lack
of consciousness and poor warning facilities.
2.4.4 Income
300
250
Less than 250
200 250-500
Visitors
150 500-999
100 1000-1999
50 2000-2999
0 3000-3999
Less than 250-500 500-999 1000-1999 2000-2999 3000-3999 Over 4000
250 Over 4000
Income per month (USD)
Figure 2.8 Monthly Income of Visitors
Figure-2.8 represents income of the visitors per month (USD). Here we can see that
the visitors whose incomes are 250-500 USD (per month) is the highest because this
group has enough time comparing with others and the travel cost is cheap compare
with other countries. The group whose income is over 2000 USD (per month) mostly
taking their tour in abroad.
2.4.5 Quality Price Ratio

300
250
200
Visitors
150 Low
Average
100
High
50
0
Low Average High
Price of goods with respect to its quality
Figure 2.9 Quality Price Ratio
30
Figure-2.9 represents the quality price ratio i.e price of goods with respect to its
quality. Now a day’s tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world. It is the
main earning source for many countries. In general we notice that all the tourism
places have higher values of necessary commodities for this reason most of the
visitors response the price is high about 57% in terms of quality. Also about 1%
visitors response the quality price ratio is low because the price is reasonable compare
with the other countries.
2.5 Kuakata
Kuakata, locally known as Sagar Kannya (Daughter of the Sea) is a rare scenic beauty
spot on the southernmost tip of Bangladesh. Kuakata in Latachapli union under
Kalapara Police Station of Patuakhali district is about 30 km in length and 6 km in
breadth. It is 70 km from Patuakhali district headquarters and 320 km from Dhaka.
At Kuakata excellent combination of the picturesque natural beauty, sandy beach,

blue sky, huge expanse of water of the Bay and evergreen forest in really eye-
catching. The name Kuakata have originated from Kua-Well dug on the sea shore by
the early Rakhine settlers in quest of collecting drinking water, who landed on
Kuakata coast after expelled from Arakan by Moughals. Afterwards, it has become a
tradition of digging Kua-Well in the neighbourhood of Rakhaine homestead for
collection water for drinking purpose and general use. Kuakata is truly a virgin beach-
a sanctuary for migratory winter birds, a series of coconut trees, sandy beach of blue
Bay, a feast for the eye.
Forest, boats plying in the Bay of Bengal with colorful sails, fishing, towering cliffs,
surfing waves everything here touches every visitor's heart. The unique customs and
costumes of the 'Rakhyne' tribal families and Buddhist Temple of about hundred years
old indicate the ancient tradition and cultural heritage, which are objects of great
pleasure Kuakata is the place of pilgrimage of the Hindus and Buddhist communities.
31
Figure 2.10 Tourism Locations in Kuakata
Innumerable devotees arrive here at the festival of 'Rush Purnima' and 'Maghi
Purnima'. On these two days they take holy bath and traditional fairs are held here. All
these additional offers to panoramic beauty make the beach more attractive to the
visitors. One should visit Kuakata and discover the lovely grace of Bangladesh.
Means of Communication: There exists road communication between Dhaka and

Patuakhali district headquarters. Accessible by road, water or air transport up to
Barisal. Then one may travel by road or water to Kuakata or Patuakhali.
2.5.1 Kuakata Tourist Attractions
The unique opportunity to fully view both Sunset and Sunrise exclusively on the bay.
Lines of coconut trees, and forests provide a sanctuary for migratory winter birds and
provides the bird watchers an extra perk for coming to kuakata.
 Fatra’s Chor: Fatra’s Chor is the nice tourist place near Kuakata beach. From
Kuakata traveler may visit the Fatrar Chor. Fatra’s Chor is the part of the
Sundarban forest. Fatra’s Chor is also known as Fatrar Bon. As the Fatrar
Chor is the part of Sundarban so it is mangrove forest. Fatra’s Bon is fairly big
forest in Kuakata. There are many Timber trees available here. The tree of this
forest in very hard and strong. And the wood of this trees are very long lasting
32
and also costly. A wood business is started at that place and these woods are
supplied in all over the country.
 Gangamati Reserved Forest: The Gangamati Reserved Forest, a remnant of
the Sundarban, is in reachable distance and provides an opportunity of seeing
a miniature mangrove forest.
Figure 2.11 Gangamati Reserved Forest
 Jhaubon: Jhaubon is very beautiful place at Kuakata. Jhaubon is close to the

sea beach. Jhau forest is created by Government initiative. Tourist or traveler
can visit there by walking. Jhaubon is surrounded by many Jhau trees and
coconut trees. This place is better to see the sun rise scenery at Kuakata. There
is a nice Eco park at Jhaubon area of Kuakata. This Ecopark will be the
excellent place for picnic or junket. Gangamati Reserved Forest is located to
the east of Jhau forest. So the traveler will visit both Jhaubon and Gangamati
Reserved Forest at a time. While visiting this area traveler will view the nice
structure of forests, big jhau trees, sands etc. Jhaubon a beautiful place to sit
and relaxation. Jhaubon is very famous and a well-acquainted place for
visitors. Tourists come here for recreation. Early in the morning the sun rising
scenery can be viewed from this corner. Jhaubon attract all visitors by its
unbounded beauty.
33
Figure 2.12 Jhaubon at Kuakata
 Buddhist Temple: Nearby Buddhist temple containing an idol of Goutom

Budhdha, is also a common tourist destination. Two 200 year old wells are
also present in the vicinity.
 The fishing villages also provide an opportunity to learn about the fishermen's
lives and customs. In exchange of some money they can even take tourists for
a fishing trip into the bay. Fresh fishes can also be bought from this place.
 During the "Rash Purnima" and "Maghi Purnima" Hindu and Buddhist
devotees arrive here for a celebration and usually fairs are also arranged.
2.6 Limitations
There is no eco-park at different points along the beach towards both

the east and west direction of Kuakata. The tourists fail to enjoy such
recreation facilities while walking along the beach.
There is lack of modern steamer and speed boat service at Kuakata for
tourists to make a journey in the sea and enjoy the attractive forest
(named Gangamotir Forest and Fatrar Forest) located to the east-west
direction from the main beach of Kuakata.
At times, there existed terrorism and violence at Kuakata. The tourists,
mainly the female ones, feel insecure at Kuakata due to such incidents.
34
A few local people are sometimes found to excavate the beach and take
away sands for construction activities. It reduces the beauty of the
beach and enhances beach erosion.
Load shedding of electricity for about 3-6 hours per day is a common
phenomenon at Kuakata. It brings inconvenience for the tourists and
others.
2.7 Discussion about Survey Data in Kuakata
In this subsection we discuss about the opinion of the visitors in Kuakata regarding
accommodation facility, transportation facility, security, income and quality price
ratio.
1%
9% 11%
Poor
Average
38% Good
41% Very Good
Excellent


facilities of kuakata. This chart also shows that maximum number of the visitors
(about 41 ) stated their opinion about accommodation facilities is average because
most of the visitors usually stay in hotel and the hotel facilities in kuakata is not so
good not so bad. Only 1 response as excellent accommodation facilities exist due to
the accommodation cost is high with respect to facilities.
35
1% 0%
16%
Poor
45% Average
Good
Very Good
38%
Excellent

shows that highest number of the visitors (about 45 ) stated their opinion about
transportation facilities as poor because the transportation system to reach kuakata
from any part of our country is very bad due to availability of bus, launch etc. On the
other hand 1% visitors feel that the transportation facilities to Kuakata is very good
because the transportation system is not enough.
2.7.3 Security
0%
8%
Poor
37% Average
22%
Good
Very Good
33% Excellent
shows that maximum number of the visitors (about 37 ) stated their opinion about
36
securities facilities as poor because sometimes some of the visitors lost their lives due
to the lack of consciousness and poor warning facilities, no update the weather signal
system and A few unexpected events like disturbance by drug addicted young boys
are found now and then etc.
2.7.4 Income
250
200 Less than 250

150 250- 500
Visitors
500-999
100
1000-1999
50
2000-2999
0 3000-3999
Less than 250- 500 500-999 1000-19992000-29993000-3999Over 4000
250 Over 4000
the visitors whose income are 250-500 USD (per month) is the highest because this
group has enough time comparing with others. The group whose income is over 2000
USD (per month) mostly taking their tour in abroad besides whose income are less
than 250 USD (per month) is second highest because most of the visitors in the group
are local person and their income is not much satisfactory they do not want to go not
so far.
4%
Low
39%
Average
57%
High

37
quality. Now a day’s tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world. It is the
main earning source for many countries. In general we notice that all the tourism
places have higher values of necessary commodities for this reason most of the
visitor’s response high about 39% in terms of quality price ratio besides 57% visitor’s
response average compare with the other locations. Also about 4% visitor’s response
the quality price ratio is low because the price is reasonable compare with the other
countries.
2.8 Jaflong
Jaflong is one of the most attractive tourist spots in Sylhet division. It's about 60 km
far from Sylhet town and takes two hours’ drive to reach there. Jaflong is also a scenic
spot nearby amidst tea gardens and rate beauty of rolling stones from hills. It is
situated besides the river Mari in the lap of Hill Khashia.
The Mari river is coming from the great Himalayas of India, which bringing million
tons of stone boulders with its tide. You can watch the stone collection from the river
in Jaflong as well as you can enjoy the boating in the river Mari. Jaflong is totally a
hilly area of real natural beauty where hills are greenish with the forests.
Figure 2.18 Tourism Locations in Jaflong
38
Lots of wild animal live in this forest, so you need to be careful to enter in the forest
alone. You can see the lifestyle of Tribe Khashia in Jaflong. If you intend to visit
Jaflong it is advisable to start from Sylhet in the early morning so that you can
comeback by evening covering the other tourist’s spots of nearby areas of Jaflong.
The other tourist areas nearby Jaflong are Tamabil, Sripur and Jaintapur.
2.8.1 Jaflong Tourist Attractions
There are many tourist attractions around Jaflong, which are easily accessible by
Jeeps and in some cases cars.
 Tamabil: Tamabil is the border area with India and is 5 km before Jaflong. If
you intend to visit Shilong of India then you will have to cross this border by
completing your customs formalities. To go to India you require valid Visa.
Figure 2.19 Tamabil, Sylhet
 Sripur: Sripur is another beautiful tourist spot where you can see the waterfall
with great tide falling from the hills. Besides the enchanting views of the area,
one can also have a glimpse of the waterfalls across the border of India. Very
big stones sometimes are coming in this waterfall in Sripur. After completion
of visiting Jaflong and Tamabil you must visit Sripur on the way to go back to
Sylhet. It’s only 7-8km from Jaflong on the same road to Sylhet a sub road
entered into Sripur waterfall. Here you can see the stone collection and orange
garden if you go inside Sripur crossing the hills.
39
Figure 2.20 Sripur Park, Sylhet,
 Jointapur's Rajbari: Jaintiapur is only 5 km. from Jaflong, a scenic spot

amidst tea gardens. At about 35 km. northwest of Sylhet town, linked by rail,
road and river is Chhatak, the seat of Assam Bengal Cement Factory, Chhatak
is famous for orange garden. After complete Sripur on the way back to Sylhet
don't miss to visit Jointika in Jointapur. Jaintapur was the capital of Jainta
Kingdome at 18th century. Jainta Rajbari was the palace of Kings of Jainta,
it’s just adjacent of Jainta Bazar. Though the condition of this king’s palace is
already damaged enormously but a huge number of tourists visit here due to
the historical background of Jainta Kingdom.
A lot of picnic parties go to Jaintapur forests and also other areas of Jaflong, Sripur
and Tamabil to enjoy a full day in the nature. So if you are planning to visit Jaflong
you must cover up all these four places at a time and by the evening you come back to
Sylhet for your night stay. Generally winter is the best season to visit Jaflong but if
you want to enjoy the real beauty of wild waterfall then you should visit Jaflong in
Monsoon.
40
Figure 2.21 Jointapur's Rajbari
2.9 Limitations
Stone crusher is one of the most important problems in this location which
pollutes our environment.
Lack of awareness of local people about tourists is another problem.
Terrorism and robbing are common incident.
Lack of well trained, skilled and efficient guide.
The way of communication of Sylhet to Jaflong is very poor.There is no
fixed Bus stand in J aflong & there are a l s o p r o b l e m s f o r t h e
transport fare for the local buses.
2.10 Discussion about Survey Data in Jaflong
In this subsection we discuss about the opinion of the visitors in Jaflong regarding
accommodation facility, transportation facility, security, income and quality price
ratio.
41
2%
10% 10%
Poor
Average
Good
30%
48% Very Good
Excellent

facilities of Jaflong. This chart also shows that maximum number of the visitors
(about 48 ) stated their opinion about accommodation facilities is average because
most of the visitors usually stay in hotel and the hotel facilities in Jaflong is not so
good not so bad. Only 2 response as excellent accommodation facilities exist due to
the accommodation cost is high with respect to facilities.

1%
5%
Poor
18% 32% Average
Good
Very Good
44% Excellent
42
transportation facilities is average because the transportation system to reach Jaflong
from any part of our country is not so good and not so bad. On the other hand 1%
visitors feel that the transportation facilities to Jaflong is excellent because they may
usually visit in the plane.
2.10.3 Security
2%
7% 13%
Poor
Average
Good
42%
36% Very Good
Excellent
securities facilities as good. BPC take some remarkable initiatives in terms of security
like indicate the restricted area, signal of the border etc. and the Border Guard
Bangladesh is very helpful for visitor’s etc. besides about 2% visitors response
excellent.
43
2.10.4 Income
300
Less than
250 250
250- 500
200 500-999
Visitors
150 1000-1999
2000-2999
100
3000-3999
50
Over 4000
0
Less than 250- 500 500-999 1000-19992000-29993000-3999 Over 4000
250
the visitors whose income are 250-500 USD (per month) is the highest because this
group has enough time comparing with others. The group whose income is over 2000
USD (per month) mostly taking their tour in abroad.
8%
Low
52% Average
40%
High
quality. Now a day’s tourism is one of biggest industry in the world. It is the main
earning source for many countries. In general we notice that all the tourism places
have higher values of necessary commodities for this reason most of the visitor’s
44
response high about 42% in terms of quality price ratio. Also about 8% visitor’s
response the quality price ratio is low because the price is reasonable compare with
the other countries.
2.11 Problems of These Locations
From this survey it is observed that the accommodation facility, transportation

facility, security, income are good but the quality price ratio is not well in Cox’s
Bazar, besides in Kuakata and Jaflong the accommodation facility, income and
quality price ratio is not bad but transportation facility and security is very bad. We
discuss briefly about this data in the Chapter 3.
45
CHAPTER-3
BINARY LOGISTIC MODEL FOR TOURISM
LOCATION SELECTION
3.1 Introduction
Logistic regression is a statistical technique that has been developed specifically for
analyzing relationship between dichotomous dependent variables (event happened or
not) and categorical, interval or continuous level independent variables. The different
independent variables are analyzed in associated with the statistical and the goodness
of fit tests to achieve the most suitable utility function.
Since most statistical software packages provide all the computations, users usually
only need to understand the concepts and some fundamental mathematics behind the
logistic regression. The outcome of logistic regression is
where is the probability for the event to occur, is a predicting parameter, is the
intercept and and so on, are the regression coefficient.
Now the logit transformation is defined as follows:
( )
where is called logit.

This transformation enables logistic regression to use many mathematical elements of
linear regression. The above equation is also the link function for logistic regression.
Link function yields linear function of the independent variable for the dependent.
46
3.2 Fields and Applications
Logistic regression was introduced in the 1940s as an alternative to Fisher’s 1936

classification method, linear discriminate analysis. It is used widely in many fields,
including the medical and social sciences. For example, The Trauma and Injury
Severity Score (TRISS), which is widely used to predict mortality in injured patients,
was originally developed by Boyd et al. (1987) using logistic regression. Many other
medical scales used to assess severity of a patient have been developed using logistic
regression. Logistic regression may be used to predict whether a patient has a given
disease (e.g. diabetes, coronary heart disease), based on observed characteristics of
the patient (age, sex, body mass index, results of various blood tests, etc.; age, blood
cholesterol level, systolic blood pressure, relative weight, blood hemoglobin level,
smoking).Another example might be to predict whether an American voter will vote
Democratic or Republican, based on age, income, sex, race, state of residence, votes
in previous elections, etc. The technique can also be used in engineering, especially
for predicting the probability of failure of a given process, system or product. It is also
used in marketing applications such as prediction of a customer’s propensity to
purchase a product or halt a subscription, etc. In economics it can be used to predict
the likelihood of a person’s choosing to be in the labor force, and a business
application would be to predict the likelihood of a homeowner defaulting on a
mortgage. Conditional random fields, an extension of logistic regression to sequential
data, are used in natural language processing.
3.3 Mathematical Formulation
The binary logistic regression model for tourism location selection estimates the
probability of a visitor’s selection for any location as a function of a certain set of
predictor variables.
In this research the number of independent variables are fifteen (Say,
).
We can construct a complex logistic regression for Y (recommendation for location
selection) as follows:
47
( )
Therefore
∑
…………………………………………………………………..(2)
where is the probability of the selection,
is the constant of the equation,
’s are regression coefficient,
and ’s are a set of predictors.
and ’s are typically estimated by the maximum likelihood (ML) method, which is
preferred over the weighted least squares approach by several authors, such as
Haberman (1978) and Schlesselman (1982). The ML method designed to maximize
the likelihood of reproducing the data given the parameter estimates. Data are entered
into the analysis as 0 or 1coading for the dichotomous outcome continuous values for
continuous predictors and dummy coding (e. g 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) for categorical
predictors.
The advantage of models derived by binary logistic regression, besides the ability to
predict the probabilities of visitors being involved in tourism location for selection.
The number of visitors (increase / decrease) is equal to model coefficient and is
recognized as log odds. However the odds of events or odds ratios are more useful to
interpret the models rather than the log odds. The odds ratios can be estimated using
under equation.
The odds ratios (O.R) = .
48
The odds ratios are defined as the probability of the outcome event occurring divided
by the probability of the event not occurring. It is the exponential term raised to the
power of the coefficient of the predictor variables.
The null hypothesis underlying the overall model states that all ’s equal zero. A
rejection of this null hypothesis implies that at least one does not equal to zero in
the visitors, which means that the logistic regression equation predicts the probability
of the outcome better then the mean of the dependent variables Y at a level of
significance of 0.05. Individual predictor variable is assessed for inclusion using Wald
statistic test and test of change in -2-log-likelihood (-2-LL). The Wald statistic is a
test for significant of and has a large sample Chi-square distribution. It is obtained
by dividing the coefficient by its standard error and
Squaring the result as shown in Equation (3)
Wald statistic =
However, in the case of the variable which is not significant at 0.05 level, but it is
selected to the model since it has a significant change in -2-LL at 0.05 level as the
change in -2-LL is generally more reliable than the Wald statistic. Furthermore, the
goodness of fit of the binary logistic model is evaluated using the likelihood ratio
index (ρ2), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic test which is used in a special
procedure where a continuous predictor is categorized into several groups. The
Hosmer-Lemeshow test is performed by dividing the predicted probabilities into
deciles and then computing a Pearson chi-square that compares the predicted to the
observed frequencies (in a 2 X 10 table). Lower values (and non significant) indicate
a good fit to the data and, therefore, good overall model fit (Hosmer and Lemeshow,
2000).
The use of the AUC (Area under the Curve) statistic based on the Receiver Operating
Characteristic (ROC) plot which can be measured to quantify the diagnostic accuracy
of a model, is determined to expose the optimal cut-off point. This concept is widely
used in the medical area, which employs two terms as sensitivity and specificity. The
sensitivity is defined as the probability that the model produces a positive result in a
positive locality, (a/(a+b)) and specificity is the probability that the model produces a
49
negative result in a negative locality, (d/(d+c)). The converse of specificity (i.e. 1-
specificity) is the probability that the model produces a positive result at a negative
locality. Sensitivity and specificity can be considered at different probability cut-off
levels within the data to produce a series of sensitivity/specificity pairs. An ROC plot
(Table 3.8, 3.16 and 3.24) shows the converse of specificity on the X-axis and
sensitivity on the Y-axis, which is graphical representation of the trade-off between
false negative and false positive rates for entire range of possible cut-off. The Area
under ROC curve which ranges from 0 to 1, represents the probability of true-false
pair. With the optimal cut-off point, the performance of the model can be evaluated by
using Percent Correctly Predicted (PCP) as shown in Table 3.7, 3.15 and 3.23.
In logistic regression, there is no true value as there is in OLS regression.

However, because deviance is analogous to MSres (or MSE) in regression analysis,
Pseudo R square can approximate an R-squared based on lack of fit indicated by the
deviance (-2LL) as shown in Equations (4), and (5). In this study, there are two
versions of Pseudo- , one is Cox & Snell Pseudo- and the other is Nagelkerke
Pseudo- .
Cox & Snell Pseudo- [ ]
where the null model is the logistic model with just the constant and the k model
contains all the predictors in the model. According to Cox & Snell value cannot
reach 1.0, Nagelkerke can be used to modify it.
[ ]
Nagelkerke Pseudo-
The correction increases the Cox and Snell to make 1.0 a possible value for R-
squared (Hosmer and Lemeshow, 2000; Nagelkerke, 1991). SPSS statistical software
is used in this study and SPSS’s select random sample of cases procedure is employed
to create two datasets. One dataset is containing 85% of total samples which is used as
a calibration dataset for model development. Other remaining 15% is a holdout data
set for model validation. A forward stepwise method is used for selection of the best
predictor variable(s) to be included in the model.
50
3.4 Case Study
This subsection describes about the three locations Cox’s Bazar, Kuakata and Jaflong.
Here we have used data from chapter two.
3.5 Data Analysis
In this chapter we discuss about data which are collected from Cox’s Bazar, Kuakata
and Jaflong. Here we analyze what kinds of characteristics are affective for tourism
location selection in our country perspective.
3.5.1 Cox’s Bazar
For the sake of illustration, we constructed a hypothetical data set to which linear
regression was applied and we interpreted its results. The hypothetical data consisted
of age, gender, education, status, income, accommodation, transportation, cost,
reason, accommodation facility, transportation facility, security, price, times and visit
of 500 visitors of these visitors 255 (51%) were recommended far good enough & 243
(48.6% ) were not. A legitimate research hypothesis posed to the data was that the
likelihood that Cox’s Bazar is recommended good enough is related to of age, gender,
education, status, income, accommodation, transportation, cost, reason,
accommodation facilities, transportation facilities, security, price, times and visit.
Thus the outcome variable good enough, has visitors being recommended for enough
(1= Yes, 0= No) and the fifteen predictors have visitors age on a standardized test
(
The gender predictor was coded as 1= male & 0=female. In (Table 3.1) the gender
distribution has nearly even with 68.2% (n=341) male& 31.8% (n=159) female.
51
Table 3.1 Classification Table
Gender
Good enough Male Female Total
No 178 65 243
Yes 163 92 255
Not respond 00 02 02
Total 341 159 500
The hypothesis regarding the relationship between the likelihood that the Cox’s Bazar
is recommended good enough and visitors age, gender, education, status, income,
accommodation, transportation, cost, reason, accommodation facility, transportation
facility, security, price, times and visit. The logistic regression analysis has carried out
the logistic procedure in SPSS in the windows 2007 environment (SPSS programming
codes found in Table-3.2).The result showed that
Table 3.2 Variables in the Equation (Cox’s Bazar)
S.E. Wald df Sig. (P value) Exp(B)

Age -0.2293 .172 1.774 1 .183 .795
Gender 0.2548 .273 .872 1 .350 1.290
Education -0.5148 .166 9.648 1 .002 .598
Status -0.2026 .099 4.173 1 .041 .817
Income 0.5737 .176 10.625 1 .001 1.775
Accommodation 0.0345 .176 .038 1 .844 1.035
Transportation 0.0050 .109 .002 1 .964 1.005
Cost 0.4780 .197 5.914 1 .015 1.613
Reason 0.0601 .086 .494 1 .482 1.062
Accommodation Facility -0.2717 .188 2.089 1 .148 .762
Transportation Facility 0.1862 .168 1.230 1 .267 1.205
Security
0.2031 .158 1.658 1 .198 1.225
Price
-1.1300 .245 21.347 1 .000 .323
Times
-0.0781 .193 .163 1 .686 .925
Visit
0.1206 .380 .101 1 .751 1.128
Constant
3.0463 1.063 8.217 1 .004 21.037
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Age, Gender, Education, Status, Income, Accommodation, Transportation, Cost, Reason,
Accommodation Facility, Transportation Facility, Security, Price, Times, Visit.
52
The simplest way to assess Wald is to take the significance values and if less than
0.05 reject the null hypothesis as the variable does make a significant contribution.
The statistical significance of the test is found in the “Sig.” column which has
considered the significant level less than 0.05 (i.e P 0.05). From these results we can
see that education (P = 0.002), Status (P = 0.041), Income (P = 0.001), Cost (P =
0.015), Price (P = 0.000) added significantly to the model / Prediction, but Age (P =
0.183), Gender (P = 0.350), Accommodation (P = 0.844), Transportation (P = 0.964),
Reason (P = 0.482), Accommodation Facility (P = 0.148), Transportation Facility(P =
0.267), Security (P = 0.198), Times (P = 0.686), Visit (P = 0.751) did not add
significantly to the model. Here we may well want to drop independents from the
model when their effect is not significant by the Wald statistic.
The Exp (B) column in the Table 3.2 Cox’s Bazar presents the extent to which raising
the corresponding measure by one unit influences the odds ratio. We can interpret Exp
(B) in terms of the change in odds. If the value exceeds 1 then the odds of an outcome
occurring increase; if the figure is less than 1, any increase in the predictor leads to a
drop in the odds of the outcome occurring.
For example, the Exp (B) value associated with income is 1.775. Hence when income
is raised by one unit (One person) the odds ratio is 1.7 times as large and therefore
visitors are 1.7 more times likely to belong to the visit in Cox’s Bazar.
The ‘B’ values are the logistic coefficients that can be used to create a predictive
equation formula 1. In this example:
Probability of the case
∑
= ∑
where, ∑
53
Example: Here is an example of the use of the predictive equation for a new case.
Imagine a visitors whose age is 30(2), gender male (1), Education Graduate (3), Status
employed (2), Income less 500 USD (1), Accommodation hotel (1), Transportation
bus (4), Daily cost 20USD (2), Why come in Cox’s Bazar Hobby (5),
Accommodation facility average (2), Transportation facility average (2), Security
average (2), Quality price ratio average (2), Times in visit 2-5 times (2),Visit here
again yes (1), Would this place is good enough? Substituting these then we get:
Probability of a case good enough
Therefore the probability that a visitor with age is 30(2), gender male(1), Education
Graduate (3), Status employed (2), Income less 500 USD (1), Accommodation hotel
(1), Transportation bus (4), Daily cost 20USD (2), Why come in Cox’s Bazar Hobby
(5), Accommodation facility average (2), Transportation facility average (2), Security
again yes (1), will good enough is 67%
Model Chi-square:
The overall significance is tested using what SPSS calls the Model Chi-square, which
is derived from the likelihood of observing the actual data under the model that has
been fitted is accurate. There are two hypotheses to test in relation to the overall fit of
the model:
The model is good fitting model.
The model is not a good fitting model. (i.e the predictors have a significant effect).
The difference between -2LL for the best- fitting model and -2LL for the null
hypothesis model is distributed like chi squared, with the degree of freedom equal to
the number of predictors; this difference is the Model chi square that SPSS refers to.
Very conveniently, the difference between -2LL value for models with successive
terms added also has a chi squared distribution, so when we use a stepwise procedure,
we can use chi-squared tests to find out if adding one or more extra predictors
54
significantly improves the fit of our model. The -2LL value from the Model summary
(table 3.4) is 484.105.
Table 3.3 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 128.556 15 .000
Block 128.556 15 .000
Model 128.556 15 .000
In our case model chi square has 15 degree of freedom, a value of 128.556 and a
probability of (Table 3.3). Thus, the indication is that the model has poor
fit, with the model containing only the constant indicating that the predictors do have
a significant effect and create essentially a different model. So we need to look
closely at the predictors and from later tables determine if one or both are significant
predictors.
Table 3.4 Model Summary
Step -2 Log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square
1 484.105a .252 .337
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than .001.
Model Summary: Although there is no close analogous statistic in logistic regression

to the coefficient of determination the Model summery (table 3.4) provides some
approximations. Cox and Snell’s R-square attempts to imitate multiple R-square
based on ‘likelihood’, but its maximum can be (and usually is) less than 1.0, making it
difficult to interpret. Here it is indicating that 25.2% of the variation in the dependent
variable is explained by the logistic model. The Nagelkerke modification that does
range from 0 to 1 is a more reliable measure of the relationship. Nagelkerke will
normally be higher than the Cox and Snell measure. Nagelkerke is part of SPSS
output in the ‘Model Summary’ table and is the most reported of the R-squared
estimates. In our case it is .337, indicating a moderately strong relationship of 33.7%
between the predictors and the prediction.
Table 3.5 Hosmer and Lemeshow Test
Step Chi-square df Sig.
1 10.319 8 .243
55
H-L Statistic: An alternative to model chi square is the Hosmer and Lemeshow test
which divides subject into 10 ordered groups of subjects and then compares the
number actually in the each group (observed) to the number predicted by the logistic
regression model (Table 3.6). The 10 ordered groups are created based on their
estimated probability, those with estimated probability below 0.1 from one group, and
so on, up to those with probability 0.9 to 1.0. Each of these categories is further
divided into two groups based on the actual observed outcome variable (Yes, No).
The expected frequencies for each of the cells are obtained from the model. A
probability value is computed from chi-square distribution with 15 degree of freedom
to test the fit of the logistic model. If the H-L goodness of fit test statistic is greater
than .05, as we want for well-fitting models, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that
there is no difference between observed and model predicted values, implying that the
model’s estimates fit the data at an acceptable level. That is, well fitting models show
non – significant on the H-L goodness of fit test. This desirable outcome of non –
significant indicates that the model prediction does not significantly differ from the
observed.
The H-L statistic assumes sampling adequacy, with a rule of thumb being enough
cases so that 95% of cells (typically, 10 decile groups times 2 outcome categories =
20 cells) have an expected frequency > 5. Our H-L statistic has a significance of 0.243
which means that it is not statistically significant and therefore our model is quite a
good fit (Table 3.5)
Table 3.6 Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test
Good enough = No Good enough = Yes

Total
Observed Expected Observed Expected
Step 1 1 41 38.973 4 6.027 45
2 37 35.338 7 8.662 44
3 34 33.535 11 11.465 45
4 28 29.786 17 15.214 45
5 22 23.329 23 21.671 45
6 15 18.731 29 25.269 44
7 16 14.803 28 29.197 44
8 9 11.150 36 33.850 45
9 14 8.086 30 35.914 44
10 2 4.269 39 36.731 41
56
Classification Table: Rather than using a goodness-of – fit statistic, we often want to
look at the proportion of cases we have managed to classify correctly. For this we
need to look at the classification table printed out by SPSS, which tells us how many
of the cases where the observed values of the dependent variable were 1 or 0
respectively have been correctly predicted. In the classification table (Table 3.7), the
columns are the two predicted values of the dependent, while the rows are the two
observed values of the dependent. In perfect model, all cases will be on the diagonal
and the overall percent correct will be 100%. In this study 74.6% were correctly
classified for good enough (Yes) group and 69.7% for the good enough (No) group.
Overall 72.2% were correctly classified. So we know that the model with predictors is
a significantly better mode.

Predicted
Observed Good enough
Percentage Correct
No Yes
No 152 66 69.7
Good enough
Step 1 Yes 57 167 74.6
Overall Percentage 72.2
a. The cut value is .500
Classification Plot: The classification plot or histogram of predicted probabilities

provides a visual demonstration of the correct and incorrect predictions (Table 3.8).
Also called the ‘class plot’ or the ‘plot’ of observed groups and predicted
probabilities, it is another very useful piece of information from the SPSS output
when one chooses ‘classification plots’ under the in the Logistic Regression dialogue
box. The X axis is the predicted probability from 0.0 to 1.0 of the dependent being
classified ‘1’. The y axis is frequency: the number of cases classified. Inside the plot
are columns of observed 1’s and 0’s. The resulting plot is very useful for spotting
possible outliers. It will also tell us whether it might be better to separate the two
categories by some rule other than the simple one SPSS uses, which is to predicted
value 1 if logit (p) is greater than 0.A better separation of categories might result from
using a different criterion. We might also want to use a different criterion if the a
priori probabilities of the two categories were very different (one might be winning
the national lottery, for example), or if the cost of mistakenly predicting someone into
57
the two categories differ (Suppose the categories were ‘found guilty of fraudulent
share dealing’ and not guilty’, for example).
(1) A U-shaped rather than normal distribution is desirable. A U-shaped distribution

indicates the predictions are well-differentiated with cases clustered at each end
showing correct classification. A normal distribution indicates too many predictions
close to the cut point, with a consequence of increased misclassification around the
cut point which is not a good model fit. For these around point 0.50 we could just as
well toss a coin.
(2) There should be few errors. The ‘Y’s to the left are false positives. The ‘N’s to the
right false negatives. Examining the plot will also tell such things as how well the
model classifies difficult cases (ones near p=.5)
Table 3.8 Observed Groups and Predicted Probabilities
Findings:
In Cox’s Bazar there are five important criteria such as education, status, income,
cost, price which are very affected to the visitors, we should need to develop these
facilities, as a result visitors can select their desire locations.
58
3.5.2 Kuakata
Here we constructed a hypothetical data set to which linear regression was applied
and we interpreted its results. The hypothetical data consisted of age, gender,
accommodation facilities, transportation facilities, security, price, times and visit of
448 visitors of these visitors 146 (32.6%) were recommended far good enough & 300
likelihood that Kuakata is recommended good enough is related to of age, gender,
accommodation facility, transportation facility, security, price, times and visit.
Thus the outcome variable good enough, was visitors being recommended for enough
(1= Yes, 0= No) & the fifteen predictors were visitors age on a standardized test
. The gender predictor was coded as 1= male & 0 = female. In

(Table 3.9) the gender distribution was nearly even with 78.8 % (n=353) male &
21.2% (n=95) female.
Gender
No 233 67 300
Yes 120 26 146
Total 353 95 448
The hypothesis regarding the relationship between the likelihood that the Kuakata is
recommended good enough & visitors age, gender, education, status, income,
accommodation, transportation, cost, reason, accommodation facility, transportation
facility, security, price, times and visit. The logistic regression analysis was carried
out the logistic procedure in SPSS in the windows 2007 environment (SPSS
programming codes found in Table-3.10). The result showed that
59
Table 3.10 Variables in the Equation (Kuakata)
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)

Step 1a Age -0.3516 .200 3.087 1 .079 .704
Gender -0.6426 .363 3.142 1 .076 .526

Education -0.1137 .193 .346 1 .557 .893
Status 0.1578 .123 1.643 1 .200 1.171
Income -0.3450 .254 1.844 1 .174 .708
Accommodation 0.4103 .249 2.710 1 .100 1.507
Transportation -0.3326 .184 3.285 1 .070 .717
Cost 0.3541 .342 1.075 1 .300 1.425
Reason -0.0212 .095 .050 1 .823 .979
Accommodation Facility 0.2598 .207 1.573 1 .210 1.297
Accommodation Facility 1.0212 .182 31.354 1 .000 2.777
Security -0.6835 .202 11.453 1 .001 .505
Price 0.2572 .244 1.111 1 .292 1.293
Times -0.1058 .232 .209 1 .648 .900
Visit 0.1833 .306 .359 1 .549 1.201
Constant 0.0573 1.415 .002 1 .968 1.059
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Age, Sex, Education, Status, Income, Accommodation, Transportation, Cost, Reason,
The statistical significance of the test is found in the “Sig.” column. From these
results we can see that Transportation Facility (P = 0.000),Security (P = 0.001) added
significantly to the model / Prediction, but Age (P = 0.079), Gender (P = 0.076),
Education (P = 0.557), Status (P = 0.200), Income (P = 0.174), Accommodation (P =
60
0.100), Transportation (P = 0.070), Cost (P = 0.300), Reason (P = 0.823),
Accommodation Facility (P = 0.210), Price (P = 0.292), Times (P = 0.648), Visit (P =
0.549) did not add significantly to the model. Here we may well want to drop
independents from the model when their effect is not significant by the Wald statistic.
The Exp (B) column in the Table 3.10 Kuakata presents the extent to which raising
the corresponding measure by one unit influences the odds ratio. We can interpret Exp
For example, the Exp (B) value associated with transportation facility is 2.777 and
security 0.505. Hence when facility2 and security are raised by one unit (One person)
the odds ratio is 2.7 and 0.5 times respectively as large and therefore visitors are 2.7
and 0.5 more times likely to belong to the visit in Kuakata.
∑
= ∑
where, ∑
Here is an example of the use of the predictive equation for a new case. Imagine a
visitors whose age is 30(2), gender male(1), Education Graduate (3), Status employed
(2), Income less 500 USD (1), Accommodation hotel (1), Transportation bus (4),
Daily cost 20USD (2), Why come in Cox’s Bazar Hobby (5), Accommodation facility
average (2), Transportation facility average (2), Security average (2), Quality price
61
ratio average (2), Times in visit 2-5 times (2),Visit here again yes (1), Would this
place is good enough? Substituting in we get:
Probability of a case good enough
Model Chi-square:
the model:
(Table 3.12) below is 371.565.
62
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 75.275 15 .000
Block 75.275 15 .000
Model 75.275 15 .000
predictors.

1 371.565a .184 .263

to the coefficient of determination the Model summery (Table 3.12) provides some
estimates. In our case it is 0.263, indicating a moderately strong relationship of
26.3% between the predictors and the prediction.

1 13.684 8 .090
63
estimated probability, those with estimated probability below 0.1 from one group, and
so on, up to those with probability 0.9 to 1.0. Each of these categories is further
divided into two groups based on the actual observed outcome variable (Yes, No).
The expected frequencies for each of the cells are obtained from the model. A
probability value is computed from chi-square distribution with 15 degree of freedom
to test the fit of the logistic model. If the H-L goodness of fit test statistic is greater
than .05, as we want for well-fitting models, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that
there is no difference between observed and model predicted values, implying that the
model’s estimates fit the data at an acceptable level. That is, well fitting models show
non – significant on the H-L goodness of fit test. This desirable outcome of non –
significant indicates that the model prediction does not significantly differ from the
observed.
20 cells) have an expected frequency > 5. Our H-L statistic has a significance of .090

Total
Observed Expected Observed Expected
Step 1 1 34 36.185 4 1.815 38
2 37 33.564 0 3.436 37
3 33 32.292 4 4.708 37
4 30 31.764 8 6.236 38
5 32 29.747 6 8.253 38
6 30 27.171 8 10.829 38
7 20 24.766 18 13.234 38
8 18 21.369 20 16.631 38
9 18 17.123 20 20.877 38
10 10 8.019 20 21.981 30
64
Classification Table: Rather than using a goodness of – fit statistic, we often want to

Predicted
Observed Good enough Percentage
No Yes Correct
Step 1 Good enough No 238 24 90.8
Yes 70 38 35.2


provides a visual demonstration of the correct and incorrect predictions (Table
3.16).Also called the ‘class plot’ or the ‘plot’ of observed groups and predicted
probabilities, it is another very useful piece of information from the SPSS output
when one chooses ‘classification plots’ under the in the Logistic Regression dialogue
box. The X axis is the predicted probability from 0.0 to 1.0 of the dependent being
classified ‘1’. The y axis is frequency: the number of cases classified. Inside the plot
are columns of observed 1’s and 0’s. The resulting plot is very useful for spotting
possible outliers. It will also tell us whether it might be better to separate the two
categories by some rule other than the simple one SPSS uses, which is to predicted
value 1 if logit (p) is greater than 0.A better separation of categories might result from
using a different criterion. We might also want to use a different criterion if the a
priori probabilities of the two categories were very different (one might be winning
the national lottery, for example), or if the cost of mistakenly predicting someone into
65
the two categories differ (Suppose the categories were ‘found guilty of fraudulent
share dealing’ and not guilty’, for example).

cut point which is not a good model fit. For these around point .50 we could just as
well toss a coin.
model classifies difficult cases (ones near P = 0.5)
Findings: In Kuakata there are two most important criteria which are very affected to
the visitors like transportation facilities and security. We should need to develop
these facility, as a result visitors can select their desire locations.
66
3.5.3 Jaflong
Here we constructed a hypothetical data set to which linear regression was applied
and we interpreted its results. The hypothetical data consisted of age, gender,
accommodation facilities, transportation facilities, security, price, times and visit of
500 visitors of these visitors 210 (42%) were recommended far good enough & 233
likelihood that Jaflong is recommended good enough is related to of age, gender,
accommodation facilities, transportation facilities, security, price, times and visit.
Thus the outcome variable good enough, was visitors being recommended for enough
(1= Yes, 0= No) & the fifteen predictors were visitors age on a standardized test (
. The gender predictor was coded as 1= male & 0=female. In

(Table 3.17) the gender distribution was nearly even with 55 % (n=275) male & 45%
(n=225) female.
Gender
No 164 69 233
Yes 76 134 210
Total 275 225 500
The hypothesis regarding the relationship between the likelihood that the Jaflong is
recommended good enough & visitors age, gender, education, status, income,
accommodation, transportation, cost, reason, accommodation facilities, transportation
facilities, security, price, times and visit. The logistic regression analysis was carried
out by logistic procedure in SPSS in the windows 2007 environment (SPSS
programming codes found in Table-3.18). The result showed that
67
Table 3.18 Variables in the Equation (Jaflong)
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a Age -0.0088 .110 .006 1 .936 .991
Gender 0.2817 .240 1.377 1 .241 1.325
Education -0.8457 .146 33.329 1 .000 .429
Status -0.1155 .079 2.148 1 .143 .891
Income 0.3086 .128 5.857 1 .016 1.362
Accommodation 0.0925 .154 .359 1 .549 1.097
Transportation 0.1340 .099 1.826 1 .177 1.143
Cost -0.1479 .168 .780 1 .377 .862
Reason -0.0025 .075 .001 1 .973 .998
Accommodation Facility 0.0279 .134 .044 1 .835 1.028
Transportation Facility -0.3678 .110 11.110 1 .001 .692
Security -0.1075 .116 .858 1 .354 .898
Price -0.2448 .212 1.329 1 .249 .783
Times -0.0546 .154 .127 1 .722 .947
Visit 1.0178 .310 10.759 1 .001 2.767
Constant 2.0717 1.167 3.151 1 .076 7.939
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Age, Gender, Education, Status, Income, Accommodation, Transportation, Cost, Reason,
The statistical significance of the test is found in the “Sig.” column. From these
results we can see that Education (P = 0.000), Income (P = 0.016), Transportation
Facility (P = 0.001), visit (P = 0.001) added significantly to the model / Prediction,
but Age (P = 0.936), Gender (P = 0.241), Status (P = 0.143), Accommodation (P =
0.549), Transportation (P = 0.177), Cost (P = 0.377), Reason (P = 0.973),
68
Accommodation Facility (P = 0.835), Security (P = 0.354), Price (P = 0.249), Times
(P = 0.722), did not add significantly to the model. Here we may well want to drop
independents from the model when their effect is not significant by the Wald statistic.
The Exp (B) column in the Table 3.18 Jaflong presents the extent to which raising the
corresponding measure by one unit influences the odds ratio. We can interpret Exp
For example, the Exp (B) value associated with income is 1.362. Hence when income
is raised by one unit (One person) the odds ratio is 1.3 times as large and therefore
visitors are 1.3 more times likely to belong to the visit in Jaflong.
∑
= ∑
where, ∑
Here is an example of the use of the predictive equation for a new case. Imagine a
visitors whose age is 30(2), gender male(1), Education Graduate (3), Status employed
(2), Income less 500 USD (1), Accommodation hotel (1), Transportation bus (4),
Daily cost 20USD (2), Why come in Cox’s Bazar Hobby (5), Accommodation facility
average (2), Transportation facility average (2), Security average (2), Quality price
ratio average (2), Times in visit 2-5 times (2),Visit here again yes (1), Would this
place is good enough? Substituting in we get:
69
Probability of a case good enough =
Model Chi-square:
the model:
(Table 3.20) below is 371.565.
Chi-square df Sig.
Step 1 Step 74.908 15 .000
Block 74.908 15 .000
Model 74.908 15 .000
70
predictors.
1 538.026a 0.156 0.208


to the coefficient of determination the Model summery (Table 3.20) provides some
estimates. In our case it is .208, indicating a moderately strong relationship of 20.8%
between the predictors and the prediction.
1 2.349 8 .968
estimated probability, those with estimated probability below .1 from one group, and
so on, up to those with probability .9 to 1.0. Each of these categories is further divided
into two groups based on the actual observed outcome variable (Yes, No). The
71
expected frequencies for each of the cells are obtained from the model. A probability
value is computed from chi-square distribution with 15 degree of freedom to test the
fit of the logistic model. If the H-L goodness of fit test statistic is greater than .05, as
we want for well-fitting models, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that there is no
difference between observed and model predicted values, implying that the model’s
estimates fit the data at an acceptable level. That is, well fitting models show non –
significant on the H-L goodness of fit test. This desirable outcome of non – significant
indicates that the model prediction does not significantly differ from the observed.
20 cells) have an expected frequency > 5. Our H-L statistic has a significance of .090
Observed Expected Observed Expected Total
Step 1 1 37 36.900 7 7.100 44
2 36 33.494 8 10.506 44
3 29 30.542 15 13.458 44
4 27 27.800 17 16.200 44
5 22 24.615 22 19.385 44
6 23 21.787 21 22.213 44
7 19 18.723 25 25.277 44
8 15 16.330 29 27.670 44
9 15 13.517 29 30.483 44
10 10 9.293 37 37.707 47
Classification Table: Rather than using a goodness–of – fit statistic, we often want to
72

Predicted
Observed Good enough Percentage
No Yes Correct
Step 1 Good enough No 164 69 70.4
Yes 76 134 63.8


provides a visual demonstration of the correct and incorrect predictions (Table 3.24).
Also called the ‘classplot’ or the ‘plot’ of observed groups and predicted probabilities,
it is another very useful piece of information from the SPSS output when one chooses
‘classification plots’ under the in the Logistic Regression dialogue box. The X axis is
the predicted probability from .0 to 1.0 of the dependent being classified ‘1’. The y
axis is frequency: the number of cases classified. Inside the plot are columns of
observed 1’s and 0’s. The resulting plot is very useful for spotting possible outliers. It
will also tell us whether it might be better to separate the two categories by some rule
other than the simple one SPSS uses, which is to predict value 1 if logit (p) is greater
than 0.A better separation of categories might result from using a different criterion.
We might also want to use a different criterion if the a priori probabilities of the two
categories were very different (one might be winning the national lottery, for
example), or if the cost of mistakenly predicting someone into the two categories
differ (Suppose the categories were ‘found guilty of fraudulent share dealing’ and not
guilty’, for example).

73
cut point which is not a good model fit. For these around point .50 we could just as
well toss a coin.
model classifies difficult cases (ones near p=.5)
Findings: In Jaflong there are four most important criteria which are very affected to
the visitors like education, income, transportation facilities and visit again. We should
need to develop these facility, as a result visitors can select their desire locations.
74
CHAPTER-4
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
4.1 Conclusion
In this dissertation, we have considered binary logistic model to find the best tourist
location for visitors. Here we have considered 15 variables for three locations namely
Cox’s Bazar, Kuakata and Jaflong. The statistically significant level is determined by
the P-value and R-square value. Most models have the P-values that are statistically
significant enough at the 0.05 level of confidence. After validation it is observed that
for Cox’s Bazar - Education, Status, Income, Cost, Price are significant. For Kuakata -
Transportation Facility, Security are significant and for Jaflong - Education, Income,
Transportation Facility, Visit again are highly significant.
For Cox’s Bazar there are five important criteria such as Education, Status, Income,
Cost, and Price. For Kuakata Transportation Facility, Security and for Jaflong
Education, Income, Transportation Facility, Visit again were found to influence most
of the visitors. The study suggests that we have to improve these criteria, so that
visitors can select their desired locations.
4.2 Recommendations
This research tries to identify the relative factors that satisfy tourist interest such as
lack of proper planning, lack of coordination among administration, lack of
transportation and lack of accommodation facilities are the major problems of
tourism. This study also shows a vast recommendation that will enhance tourism
locations. To overcome these problems authority should take initiatives by
establishing a good transportation system, training institution, establishing
tourist zone, announcing Wi-Fi zone in the tourist destination. Concerned authority
can introduce mountain tourism, culture tourism, rural tourism and pro-poor tourism.
Basically the whole tourism market in Bangladesh, 20% utilized rest of the markets is
open for investment.
If we want to attract more visitors, new strategies and an integrated tourism marketing
effort are required. The products offered by Bangladesh tourism industry must be
unique and they must be competitive in the target market. Some of the following
75
recommendations for consideration by appropriate authorities those are essential for
the development of tourism industry in Bangladesh.
1. Tourism authority should develop its plan to attract visitors. In fractural

development should be international level such as amusement park for children, sub
marine for visitors but that should not destroy the natural living the main attraction of
visitor.
2. A visitors needs personal security and safety. At times, there existed terrorism and
violence at Kuakata. The tourists, mainly the female ones, feel insecure at Kuakata
due to such incidents. It is suggested that separate police should be deployed mainly
in the tourist spots and other places of attraction.
3. As the visitor in flow to Bangladesh is still quite insignificant in comparison to

other South Asian Countries, the main responsibility of BPC should be to promote the
identity, image and visitors inventories of Bangladesh in international market.
4. BPC should be responsible for policy formulation, implementation, resource

collection and co-ordination. The function and responsibilities of the BPC should be
reviewed and reformulated.
5. The authority should immediately take some necessary steps to construct the road
and establishment of international standard hotel and motel facilities.
6. BPC should publish and distribute posters about tourism places. We feel that along
with the descriptions of visitors information on transportation and accommodation
facilities, securities and other supporting facilities should be incorporated in the
folders and booklets to provide tourists enough information before deciding to take a
trip to the locations.
7. Well trained guides fluent in English and other foreign language must be provided.
The folders, brochures and posters must be printed in different language.
8. To control the price of food authority should proper inspection on it.
Finally, Bangladesh should develop a master plan for creation of a limited number of
most attractive tourist spots like historical and natural spots with modern transport and
76
communications system. Comfortable accommodations, exotic recreational facilities,
sufficient security and other facilities and amenities as demanded by the foreign
visitors.
77
Future Work
Nonetheless, additional work may be needed to further completely estimate the

influence as education, Status, Income, Cost, Price, Transportation Facility, and
Security. More data such as Marital Status, Duration of Visit etc. could be included in
future work to extend this work with more realistic way.
In future we will apply multinomial logistic model. To collect data we have faced
many problems. We have not obtained proper data for some cases; in future we will
try to collect more accurate data for those cases and will calibrate our model.
However, it has surveyed 2 years ago, and some states have changed, such as
infrastructural change, natural change etc. Therefore, more data that is recent is
necessary to re-estimate the model’s parameters.
78
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84
Appendix-1
Questionnaire for Tourist

Name:…………………………………………….
1. Which country do you come from________________________________

2. What is your age group?
 18-25 years
 26-40 years
 41-55 years
 56-65 years
 Over 65 years
3. Sex
 Male
 Female
4. Educational Qualification
 Below Secondary
 Under Graduate
 Graduate
 Post Graduate
5. What is your current status?

 Student
 Employed
 Unemployed
 Businessman
 Retired
 Other_____________________________
6. Income
 Less than 500
 500-999
 1000-1999
 2000-2999
 3000-3900
 Over 4000
85
Appendix-1
7. In what kind of accommodation did you stay (More than one answer allowed)?
 Hotel
 Bungalow apartment
 Own house
 Apartment in a complex
8. Please evaluate the transportation did you use to come this place
 Rental car
 Own car
 Taxi
 Bus
 Train
 Plane
 Other______________________________
9. Average daily cost (Per person)

 Less 10
 10-20
 20-50
 More than 50
10. Reasons why you chose to come to Cox’s Bazar/Kuakata/Jaflong?

 Holiday and relaxation
 Entertainment
 Beauty of nature and landscape
 Work
 Hobby
 Other_______________________________
11. Evaluate the quality of your accommodation facilities

 Poor
 Average
 Good
 Very good
 Excellent
86
Appendix-1
12. Evaluate the quality of your transportation facilities

 Poor
 Average
 Good
 Very good
 Excellent
13. What is your assessment regarding the security?

 Poor
 Average
 Good
 Very good
 Excellent
14. Quality-price ratio

 Low
 Average
 High
15. How many times have you visited here before today?
 This is my first time here
 2-5 Times
 More than 5 Times
16. Do you think you will visit here again?

 Yes
 No
 I don’t know
17. Do you think the status of the entertainment of this place is good enough…………………………
Thank You
87
Appendix-2
Cox’s Bazar Kuakata Jaflong
Age Age Age

18-25 26-40 41-55 56-65 Over 65 18-25 26-40 41-55 56-65 Over 65 18-25 26-40 41-55 56-65 Over 65
142 230 84 32 2 96 200 102 42 8 142 230 84 32 2
Gender Gender Gender

Male Female Male Female Male Female
336 154 356 92 336 154
Educational Qualification Educational Qualification Educational Qualification

Below Under Below Under Below Under Post
secondary Graduate Graduate Post graduate secondary Graduate Graduate Post graduate secondary Graduate Graduate graduate
0 160 178 152 10 100 212 126 0 160 178 152
Current Status Current Status Current Status

Studen Employe Unemploye Businessma Retire Other Studen Employe Unemploye Businessma Retire Other Stude Employe Unemploy Businessm Retire Other
t d d n d s t d d n d s nt d ed an d s
156 182 30 74 6 42 100 182 24 92 24 26 156 182 30 74 6 42
Income Income Income

Less Less Less
than 250- 500- 1000- 2000- 3000- Over than 250- 500- 1000- 2000- 3000- Over than 250- 500- 1000- 2000- 3000- Over
250 500 999 1999 2999 3999 4000 250 500 999 1999 2999 3999 4000 250 500 999 1999 2999 3999 4000
92 280 80 20 4 6 8 122 200 96 20 10 0 0 92 280 80 20 4 6 8
Accommodation Accommodation Accommodation

Bungalow Apartment in a Bungalow Apartment in a Bungalow Apartment in
Hotel Apartment Own House complex Hotel Apartment Own House complex Hotel Apartment Own House a complex
396 54 18 28 396 54 18 28 396 54 18 28
Transportation Transportation Transportation

Rental Own Rental Own Rental Own
Car Car Taxi Bus Train Plane Others Car Car Taxi Bus Train Plane Others Car Car Taxi Bus Train Plane Others
26 30 0 342 124 46 4 26 30 0 342 124 46 4 26 30 0 342 124 46 4
88
Appendix-2
Daily Cost Daily Cost Daily Cost

Less 10 10_20 20-50 More 50 Less 10 10_20 20-50 More 50 Less 10 10_20 20-50 More 50
320 124 32 14 320 124 32 14 320 124 32 14
Reason Reason Reason
Beauty Beauty Beauty
Holiday of nature Holiday of nature Holiday of nature
and and and and and and
Relaxatio Entertainmen landscap Relaxatio Entertainmen landscap Wor Hobb Other Relaxatio Entertainmen landscap Wor Hobb Other
n t e Work Hobby Others n t e k y s n t e k y s
230 130 78 22 34 14 230 130 78 22 34 14 230 130 78 22 34 14
Accommodation Facility Accommodation Facility Accommodation Facility

Poor Average Good Very Good Excellent Poor Average Good Very Good Excellent Poor Average Good Very Good Excellent
2 74 220 156 38 2 74 220 156 38 2 74 220 156 38
Transportation Facility Transportation Facility Transportation Facility

24 118 270 62 16 24 118 270 62 16 24 118 270 62 16
Security Security Security

14 90 206 146 34 14 90 206 146 34 14 90 206 146 34
Quality Price Ratio Quality Price Ratio Quality Price Ratio

Low Average High Low Average High Low Average High
4 204 282 4 204 282 4 204 282
Times in Visit Times in Visit Times in Visit

First Time 2-5 Times More than 5 times First Time 2-5 Times More than 5 times First Time 2-5 Times More than 5 times
240 204 46 240 204 46 240 204 46
Visit Here Again? Visit Here Again? Visit Here Again?
Yes No I don’t know Yes No I don’t know Yes No I don’t know
440 14 36 440 14 36 440 14 36
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TOURISM LOCATION SELECTION BY

KAZI ANOWAR HUSSAIN

TOURISM LOCATION SELECTION BY

This work is dedicated to my beloved

Tourism is the change in environment. Tourism positively effects on human life. It

I hereby declare that this work submitted to the Department of Mathematics,

(Kazi Anowar Hussain)

I offer my sincerest gratitude to my supervisor, Associate Professor Dr. Mohammed

My special thanks to Dr. Md. Mustafa Kamal Chowdhury, Professor, Department of

(KAZI ANOWAR HUSSAIN)

Dated: September, 2015

Author’s Declaration ...................................................................................................... v

1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Different Types of Tourism Sector .............................................................. 5

1.2.1 Site Tourism ........................................................................................... 5

1.2.2 Business Tourism ................................................................................... 6

1.2.3 Education Tourism ................................................................................ 6

1.2.4 Religious Tourism .................................................................................. 6

1.2.5 Medical Tourism .................................................................................... 7

1.2.6 Other Tourism ........................................................................................ 8

1.3 Effect of Government Sector and Private Sector ....................................... 8

1.3.1 Government Sector ................................................................................ 8

1.3.2 Bangladesh Tourism Board Act. ........................................................ 11

1.3.3 Private Sector Participation ................................................................ 13

1.4 Importance of Tourism ............................................................................... 14

1.4.1 Advantages of Tourism........................................................................ 14

1.4.2 Disadvantages of Tourism ................................................................... 14

1.5 Possible Positive Impact of Tourism.......................................................... 15

1.6 Problems of Tourism in Our Locations .................................................... 16

1.7 Literature Review ........................................................................................ 17

2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 23

2.2 Cox’s Bazar .................................................................................................. 25

2.2.1 Cox’s Bazar Tourist Attractions......................................................... 26

2.3 Limitations ................................................................................................... 28

2.4 Discussion about Survey Data in Cox’s Bazar ......................................... 28

2.4.1 Accommodation Facilities ................................................................... 28

2.4.2 Transportation Facilities ..................................................................... 29

2.4.3 Security ................................................................................................. 29

2.4.4 Income ................................................................................................... 30

2.4.5 Quality Price Ratio .............................................................................. 30

2.5 Kuakata ........................................................................................................ 31

2.5.1 Kuakata Tourist Attractions ............................................................... 32

2.6 Limitations ................................................................................................... 34

2.7 Discussion about Survey Data in Kuakata ................................................ 35

2.7.1 Accommodation Facilities ................................................................... 35

2.7.2 Transportation Facilities ..................................................................... 36

2.7.3 Security ................................................................................................. 36

2.7.4 Income ................................................................................................... 37

2.7.5 Quality Price Ratio .............................................................................. 37

2.8 Jaflong .......................................................................................................... 38

2.8.1 Jaflong Tourist Attractions ................................................................. 39

2.9 Limitations ................................................................................................... 41

2.10 Discussion about Survey Data in Jaflong .................................................. 41

2.10.1 Accommodation Facilities ................................................................... 42

2.10.2 Transportation Facilities ..................................................................... 42

2.10.4 Income ................................................................................................... 44

2.10.5 Quality Price Ratio .............................................................................. 44

2.11 Problems of These Locations ...................................................................... 45