2 I HEADLINES
Should Washingtonrearm SoutheastAsia against China?
here is no single problem
T with United States Presi-
dent Donald Trump's two
week-old preside ncy. There are
plenty.
Not least of which has bee n
how his advisors' ideologically
distorted worldviews dr ive Unit -
ed States foreign policy. Think of
the rece nt chao tic immigratio n
policies or the cavalier alliance
management moves.
The melee notwithstanding,
both the Republican -cont rolled
House and Senate as well as th e
White House seem to agree that
form er president Barack Obama's
"rebalance" to Asia has embold -
ened China and damaged Ameri-
can interests. In response, they
believe, the US should beef up its
military presence and re-a.rm its
partners and allies to pu sh back
against China.
Most recentl y, Senator John
McCain, head of the Senate's
Arm ed Services Comm itt ee, pr o-
posed US$7.5 billion of new fund-
ing for US forces and th eir Asian
counterparts . The funds would
go to new military construction,
such as runways in Austral ia and
the Philippines, munitions pro-
curement and capac ity build-
ing of and exerc ises with allies
TheJakartaPost WEDNESDAYFebruary 8, 2017
and parb 1ers. Reuters quo ted a INSIGHT aging platforms - most of them prefers diplomatic engagement tance programs therefore, along-
Trump official ar guing that the
proposal was "very much in gen-
eral alignment with the adminis-
are between 35 and 55 years old
- to meet day-to-day operati onal
demands .
tools, whether through ASEAN
or st rategic partnerships wit h
the US or oth er r egional power s
side joint exercise activities,
should take into account th e op-
erational requirem ents of regional
tra tion's goals in the region ." Historically, Stockholm Int er - (what scholars have dubb ed "soft" a.t·medforces. Such programs also
This proposal might be an ex- national Peace Research In st i- or "inst ituti onal" balancing) . tend to be more bene ficial within
panded version of Obama's South- tute (SIPRI) data also shows that Second , as techno logical a broader fram ework of improving
east Asia Maritime Security Ini- for much of the pos t-Cold War rearma.tnent cannot easily re- comm and-and-contr ol systems,
tiative launched by then defense Evan A. era, when China's milit a1y rise verse the sb·uctura l const raints personnel promotion policies, or-
secreta.ty Carte r in 2015 (altho ugh Laksmana and the South China Sea loomed surrounding South east Asia's de- ganizational structure, as well as
it was suggested by McCain). This JA KA RTA large, regional a.t·ms impor ts re- fense spending and imp o1t de- refining doctr inal concepts and
initiative committed roughly $425 mained below their Cold War lev- pende nce, Washin gton should force-employment systems.
million over five years to strength - el. Only Malaysia, Myan mar and not focus on providing more de- Strengthening Southeast Asia's
en the maritim e capabilities of the Accordin g to IHS Jane's data, the Singapore imp ort ed more arm s fense materiel. domestic defense industrial base
Philippin es, Vietnam, Indon esia top-seven largest defense spende rs after th e Cold War. Instea d, the US should focus on is anoth er long-term strategic re-
and Malaysia. in Southeast Asia disbursed rough- Regional countries' weapon improving the professional quali - quirement. Collaborati ve proj-
Now that the US has pulled out ly 78 percent of their budgets be- suppliers have ba.t·ely changed ty and human capital of South east ects between Ame rican and re-
of the Tra.t1s-Pacific Pa.ttnership tween 2012 and 2016 on routine since the 1950s as well, although Asia's armed forces . After all, IHS' gional defense compani es would
and Trump's penchant for bilat- expenditur e: personnel as well the r elat ive budget share of some J ane's data show th at the largest also signal Washington's willing-
eralism is likely to ma.t·ginalize as operations and maint enan ce. su ppliers fluctuates . militaries in the region (Indone- ness to supp ort Southeast Asia's
ASEAN, rearm ing regional cou n- When it comes new capability de- Between 1950 and 2015, SIPRI sia and Vieb1am) spen d the least quest for strat egic autonomy.
tr ies to deter or contai n China velopment - seen tlu·ough defense data show iliat Souilieast Asian per individual personnel; Singa- In th e end, simply re-armin g
could be the domi nant engage- research and development as well countries cons istent ly had 19 dif- pore as one of the smallest spe nds Southeast Asia against China is
ment policy. as procur ement - they only spent fere nt arms suppliers on average; the most a flawed str ategy when regional
For Southeast Asia, however, a about 19 percent ranging from a low nine for Laos Hum an cap ital investmen t is needs and structural constraints
rearmament strategy is flawed for Further, desp ite the upward to a high 32 for Indonesia . Put dif- cr itical when we cons ider how pertaining to defense capability
two reaso ns. procurement projections for In - fere ntl y, each countty has had the the historical and day-to-day di- are not account ed for.
First, the re is no emp irical ev- donesia ($2.1 billion), Singapore same set and number of weapons verse set of operational dema nds
idence that Southeast Asia has ($1.9 billion) and Vietnam ($1.2 suppliers for decades, regardless of many Souilieast Asian militar-
been militarily balancing against billion) by 2021, the ir real value of the changes in the stra tegic en - ies - from maritime secur ity to The writer is a researcher at the
China to begin with, nor is it capa- is miniscule compared to what vironment. coun tertrafficking - substantial - Centre for Strategic, and I nterna-
ble of doing so - notwithstanding Japan, Indi a, or South Korea These patterns, taken as a ly differs from what the US hopes tional Studies, Jakarta and current-
the hype over the region's recent spend on the ir weaponry. Bear in whole, poi nt to a lack of military the region would do in a future ly a visiting fellow at The National
procurement of new air and naval mind that there is also a growing opt ions for Southeast Asia to bal- conflict with Ch ina, for exam ple. Bureau of Asian Research in Seattle .
capab ilities (e.g. subm ari nes). need in Southeast Asia to replace ance Chin a. Thi s is why the region Edu cation and training assis- The views expressed are his own.