RIU Chrysotile Cement Roofing Economic - Final Draft-53

SOCIO – ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE POTENTIAL PROHIBITION OF CHRYSOTILE
IN SRI LANKA – COST EVALUATION
FINAL REPORT
Table of Contents
Executive Summary......................................................................................................…...3
1. Objective of the socio-economic evaluation ...................................................................... 5

2. Research Methodology....................................................................................................... 7
3. Background ......................................................................................................................... 9
4. The direct costs of a potential ban ................................................................................... 14
5. Indirect economic costs .................................................................................................... 24
6. Social cost ......................................................................................................................... 32
7. The impact on the environment ....................................................................................... 43
8. Overall macro-economic impact ...................................................................................... 55
Annex A - Summary of Environmental Impact Feedback from Experts

Annex B - National Housing Policy
Annex C - Methodology
Annex D - Stakeholder Agencies
Annex E - Literature Review
RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 1

Executive Summary
Essentially the roof is the defining feature of any dwelling be it a residential, commercial or
any other type of building. In this regard, any attempt to ban or restrict the most popular
roofing material that Sri Lanka currently opts for will naturally have serious consequences in
terms of the direct and indirect economic costs as well as the social and the environmental
impacts that are more difficult to monetise but nevertheless have very serious
consequences.
The rationale for engaging in any discussion on a ban on the use of Chrysotile in other
countries has been based on arguments that are connected to the perceived negative health
impacts of Chrysotile fiber. Whilst the scope of this report does not cover any investigation
of health-related aspects, it is worth noting that to date there are no medical records or
statistics showing harm from the import or manufacture of Chrysotile containing roofs
despite more than sixty years of use in Sri Lanka.
This report begins by noting that in an international context, the countries that have banned
Chrysotile are predominantly located in Europe and a few other parts of the industrialised
world where the average GDP is almost ten times higher than Sri Lanka. Next, the report
presents an analytical consideration of the direct costs of a potential ban based on several
methods of calculation that use available government data from the Central Bank and the
Department of Census and Statistics.
Based on the statistical model that we have developed; the following direct costs have been
presented;
 Annual value of Chrysotile roofing material used in Sri Lanka is LKR 21.5 billion (US$
146.8 million)
 Value of total stock of Chrysotile roofing inventory in Sri Lanka LKR 395 billion
(US$2.7 billion)
 Value of existing capital investment: LKR 8-16 billion (US$55-110 million)
 New investment required to produce alternatives: LKR 8-16 billion (US$55-110
million)
 Loss of income and profits to the industry: LKR 14.7 billion (US$100 million)
 Loss of income earned by employees (direct and indirect): LKR 17.9 billion per
annum (US$122 million)
 Loss to Customs and Inland Revenue: LKR 858 million (US$5.9 million)

Furthermore, indirect economic costs are multifarious and include both tangible and
intangible impacts that are at times difficult to monetise. Nevertheless, this report has
highlighted very important concerns that in a worst case scenario may prove to be
disastrous for certain domestic sectors as well as the economy as a whole. A case in point is
the impact that a potential ban on Chrysotile fiber imports may have on Sri Lanka’s trade
relations with Russia that are currently valued at over US$ 426 million with the balance of
trade in Sri Lanka’s favour. The Russian Ambassador to Sri Lanka has already publicly voiced
concerns on the government proposals to ban Chrysotile whilst the Chairman of the Sri
Lanka Tea Board has also stated to the RIU research team that the potential fall-out for the
domestic tea industry could be significant. The tea industry contributes over US$ 1.5 billion
to the national economy and provides employment to an estimated two million workers.
This report also presents the findings of our primary research on the impact of a ban on
households, schools and hospitals in Sri Lanka.The findings from the household survey
confirm that the impact will be somewhere between severe and damaging under scenarios
where homes will not be able to replace their roofing sheets and cannot upgrade from iron
sheets (takaran) because they can no longer afford a material that is a better alternative. It
was also found that 25 per cent of hospitals have Chrysotile roofs with an additional 24 per
cent having a mix of materials that include Chrysotile which would represent over 43,000
hospital beds. Similarly, 22 per cent of schools had Chrysotile roofs whilst a further five per
cent had a mix that included Chrysotile which represents 2,368 schools and more than one
million children across the island.
Finally, this report presents an evaluation of the potential environmental impact of a ban on
Chrysotile by looking at the likely alternatives that will fill the gap in demand for roofing
materials. According to our research, clay tiles are expected to be at the frontline of those
products that will be considered by home owners and developers. However, any significant
increase in the production of clay tiles is not likely to be sustainable given that large portions
of earth need to be excavated for this purpose. This activity is known to have serious
negative impacts on the environment, including landslides, a phenomenon that Sri Lanka is
now experiencing at increasing frequency.
It has also been found that if the government starts to categorise Chrysotile roofing as a
dangerous material, then it might follow that policies will be introduced for the safe removal
and disposal of the same. Currently, there are no provisions made by the Central
Environment Authority (CEA) for disposal of this material.In our research, we used the
Australian model for removal and disposal and discounted the costs accordingly to
represent much lower wage rates in Sri Lanka.Nevertheless, the cost of removal,
transportation and disposal of all current inventory would cost the government an
estimated LKR 1,653 billion (US$ 11.25 billion).

Essentially, this report has found that Chrysotile roofing is the preferred choice of material
in Sri Lanka, especially for the low and mid-income groups who continue to upgrade from
cheaper and less robust materials to one that is affordable and offers a huge improvement
in comfort and overall material performance (thermal performance, water tightness, noise,
durability, strength, aesthetic appearance and availability). Consequently, a policy that seeks
to ban this important material may find that it contradicts the National Housing policy
which seeks to extend affordable and decent shelter to some 100,000 people each year.
Moreover, rash policy decisions in the regard also threaten to open the door for potentially
harmful negative economic impacts to the specific industries as well as the macro-economy.

1. Objective of the socio-economic evaluation
As part of ongoing moves by the Sri Lankan government, the Cabinet recently approved
controlling the use and import of asbestos (Chrysotile) from January 2018 by adopting more
“beneficial substitutes and to prepare an operational programme to prohibit asbestos
related production by 2024.”1
Accordingly, a proposal made by the President Maithripala Sirisena, in his capacity as the
Minister of Mahaweli Development and Environment, to control the use and import of
asbestos and to prohibit asbestos related productions by 2024, was approved by the
Cabinet of Ministers. However, industry commentators and economists are concerned that
the government is embarking on an effort to control, restrict or ban a product that has
grown in popularity due to its affordability, quality and accessibility, without having fully
assessed the economic and social impact of this action.
The Research Intelligence Unit (RIU) was commissioned by the Chrysotile Information
Centre (CIC) to conduct a socio-economic cost assessment on the possible banning of
Chrysotile in Sri Lanka. Whilst the CIC has sponsored this research study, it is important to
note that the RIU has carried out the task independently and is fully responsible for the
findings of this report.
The rationale for conducting this research assignment is based on the need to grasp a better
understanding of the full impact in terms of economic, environmental and social cost of any
potential ban on Chrysotile products in Sri Lanka.
Specifically, the objectives of the study are to address the:-
“… direct, indirect and induced effects, and examine pre-existing regulations and proposed
regulations – with the goal of measuring the outcomes and effects of a ban on the
relevant businesses and socio-economic actors; and the outcome of this study will prove
useful to policy makers and other relevant government agencies and authorities to
effectively consider the cost of the situation”.
1
Source: Daily FT; http://www.ft.lk/article/566651/Asbestos-ban-in-2024--control-use-in-
2018
This final report begins with a situational analysis of the country in terms of the macro-
economic environment and the importance of the construction and real estate industry to
the national economy. Next, this report presents a detailed description of our methodology
followed by the RIU’s primary research findings which is organised as follows:-
- Direct economic costs

- Indirect economic costs
- Social impact
- Environmental costs
Given the overall lack of information and material on the subject, this report represents the
findings of primary research on the use of Chrysotile. This included a survey of 100 homes
covering four districts, as well as a survey of 48 schools and 40 hospitals, all relevant
institutions, exporters, environment experts and institutional users.

2. Research Methodology
2.1 Overview
The approach, methodology and the sequence of work undertaken by the RIU team in this
study are as follows;
- Desk review and study of available research materials and secondary data related to
the areas of inquiry within the scope of work;
- Institutional mapping of all agencies, government and private sector organisations in
relation to where they operate in the context of the industry supply chain;
- Developing databases of material, references and contacts;
- Unstructured interviews with key stakeholders with a view to identify new sources of
secondary data as well as to get a sense of the knowledge and awareness levels on
Chrysotile at the policy, institutional and regulatory levels.
- Finalising primary data formats for further structured meetings with stakeholders and
field research covering key groups;
- Finalising survey samples for consumers, industry, stakeholders and
environmentalists and conducting one-on-one interviews and meetings;
- Executing primary research at institutional and field levels with a finalised set of
research tools that include one-on-one questionnaires, site observation checklists and
in-depth interviews;
- Checking quality of data and data entry;
- Data analysis and data modelling;
- Providing the final report incorporating industry feedback with a detailed assessment
of the economic, social and environmental costs;
2.2 Information quality
At all stages of information gathering, the research team was mindful of the need for the
information to be credible, accurate and relevant. In this regard, the research team filtered
information of relevance while accuracy and credibility required that we continue to
triangulate the information using several sources, sometimes asking the same questions
from different stakeholders.

2.3 Literature and secondary data review
All secondary data has been referenced and a list of references has been included in the
Annexures.
2.4 In-depth interviews, surveys and data modelling

This aspect of the primary research sought to add value to our understanding of the
problem in an environment of limited secondary data availability. During the research, we
completed the following surveys;
● Household survey: A sample of 100 households in the districts of Jaffna, Kandy,

Gampaha and Colombo that currently use Chrysotile roofing material.
● Site observation checklists carried out at 40 schools and 40 hospitals in the same
districts in order to identify the profile of roofing materials in key government
buildings.
● One-on-one meetings with industry stakeholders, associations, business and

institution leaders, environmentalists, experts on roofing materials, tea exporters
and local manufacturers of Chrysotile.
● Cost calculations, particularly for the direct costs, was generated with extensive data
modelling using Mini-Tab (Version 14) and SPSS.

3. Background
3.1 Country overview
Sri Lanka is an island of 65,620 sq. km and a population of 21 million with literacy rates
exceeding 92 per cent and has traditionally maintained human development indicators that
are comparable with those of advanced countries. The economy measured in terms of per
capita GDP has always led the pack among South Asian economies and the post war (2009)
performance has further propelled the island economy into middle-income status. In 2015
GDP per capita stood at US$ 3,686 and Sri Lanka has had renewed support of its political
reforms from all parts of the Western world as well as India. 2
Another consequence of the new political regime has been a change in the way GDP is
calculated. According to the new method of National Account calculation, Sri Lanka's gross
domestic product will expand to 5.8 per cent in 2016 up from 4.8 per cent in 2015 and
strengthen over the medium term to achieve a higher growth target of around 7.0 per cent.
The latest data from the Central Bank Annual report 2015 show:-
Key Economic Indicators

● Sri Lanka’s economic growth, which slowed to 4.8 per cent in 2015, compared with a
4.9 per cent growth witnessed in 2014 is to improve by 5.8 per cent in 2016.
● Agriculture and services related activities grew by 5.5 per cent and 5.3 per cent,
respectively, while industry related activities grew at a slower pace of 3.0 per cent
during 2015.
● Inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumers’ Price
Index (CCPI) was recorded at 2.8 per cent, compared to 2.1 per cent at the end of
2014.
● Tourist arrivals for October 2016 rose by 13.7 per cent to 150,419 according to the
Tourism Authorities. This represents a total for the year of 1.658 million a rise of 14.6
per cent from 2015. The target set for 2016 is 2.5 million visitors.
● Earnings from tourism in 2015 increased by 22.6 per cent to US$ 2,981 million,
compared to US$ 2,431 million in 2014.
2
Source: REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN A GREEN ENVIRONMENT;
http://riunit.lk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/50-51.pdf
Chart 3.1 Sri Lanka’s GDP per capita
The Human factor
Along with this remarkable economic development, Sri Lanka is witnessing a positive
improvement in the human development indicator which stands at 0.75 per cent.
3.2 The Western Province Contribution to National Economy

The Western Province is one of nine provinces of Sri Lanka and the first level administrative
division of the country. Whilst regional disparities remain across the island in terms of
growth rates and share of GDP, it is clear that the Western Province dominates the
economic landscape according to the latest data.
Chart 3.2 Share of PGDP in the overall GDP Chart 3.3 Western Province contributions GDP 2015

Colombo has been changing continuously since the end of the long civil war in 2009 with
increased tourism, infrastructural developments and domestic and international real estate
projects.
3.3 International comparison
Despite the impressive progress in Sri Lanka’s macro-economic environment, an important

point to note is that in the vast majority of cases, it is the rich industrialised countries that
have embarked on a ban of Chrysotile. One of the key reasons for this phenomenon is the
fact that only countries with high levels of per capita GDP will have home owners who can
afford to change their roofing material to higher priced alternatives3.
3
The only exception is Mozambique which approved a ban on the production, use, import,
export and trade in Asbestos and Asbestos containing products in August 2010. Since then a
number of substitutes have been introduced to the market such as clay tiles, aluminum
sheets and a type of straw named Palha or Caniso. Aluminum is one of the main exports of
Mozambique which helped with the transition from Asbestos.Mozambique is one of the
largest suppliers of aluminium in Africa.

Chart 3.4 Countries that have banned

4. The direct costs of a potential ban
Several approaches were used to base our estimates on the value of the Sri Lankan
Chrysotile industry. The main methodologies developed in this study include the following:-
 The annual value of the housing (construction) industry of which roofing material
accounts for 10 – 20 per cent;
 The annual value of Chrysotile roofing as a share of new houses that have been
approved by the government;
 The value of current Chrysotile inventory in use in Sri Lanka as roofing material in
homes, schools, hospitals, etc. ;
 The cost of removal and disposal of existing stocks of Chrysotile inventory.
A comprehensive estimation of the direct costs will also need to take account of a wide
variety of factors that include the following:-
 Value of existing capital investment of the manufacturing plants and machinery for
each of the four producers;
 New investment for production of alternative roofing materials;
 Loss of income and profits in the industry;
 Value of imports and Customs revenue.
4.1 The construction industry approach
One of the Island’s fastest growing or booming industries is the construction sector. This is
witnessed by the continued growth in new housing approvals as well as in the large
numbers of high-rise buildings being built in Colombo and the suburbs.
According to Central Bank data, the real-estate sector grew by 9.6 per cent in 2015. This
growth has been accompanied by a staggering expansion in the construction sector which
has been growing at a rate of 22 per cent and contributed to 9.7 per cent of Sri Lanka’s
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2015.

Calculation of annual value
Value of construction industry (2015) =US$ 7.985 billion

Buildings1 (53.2% of total industry) =US$ 4.232 billion
Roofing materials1 (10% of buildings) =US$ 423 million
Chrysotile material (34.6% of roofing) =US$ 146 million (per annum in 2015)
According to this method that uses Central Bank data on Housing Construction, some US$
146 million worth of Chrysotile roofing entered the Sri Lankan economy in 2015.This figure
sits well with Customs data that show Sri Lanka has imported US$ 44.9 million worth of
Chrysotile fiber in 2016.
It is also important to note that the cost of construction inputs have been rising steadily
over recent years, including the price of Chrysotile. Therefore, the past and future values of
annual Chrysotile use in Sri Lanka will vary in line with overall construction material costs.
Chart 4.1 Fluctuation of prices of construction inputs reflected by Indices
4.2 New housing approvals approach
Data released by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka indicate that the number of new houses
approved over the past 12 years in Greater Colombo has tended to fluctuate at between
8000 and 16,000 units per annum. In addition, an average of 1,500 non-housing buildings
are also approved each year. These contribute to the total building approvals that average
14,646 new buildings being approved per annum in Greater Colombo.

Chart 4.2 New housing approvals approach
Central Bank data also indicate an increase in the number of new houses that are larger
than 2,000 ft2 as compared to smaller housing units. Based on available data, the
computation shows that the average size of a housing unit is 1,904 ft2.
Chart 4.3 Building approvals in greater Colombo 2003 - 2013

Chart 4.4 No. of housing approvals in Colombo by size of dwelling
According to Central Bank data when we consider every ten houses approved in Greater
Colombo, there is at least one “other building approval” thus our average building unit size
estimate can be revised upward4. The “other buildings” are not defined but include all non-
housing buildings such as large commercial complexes and warehouses, government
buildings and places of religious worship.
Chart 4.5 Breakdown of building approvals in greater Colombo 2002 - 2012
4
In 2010, Number of other buildings approved was 1,107
As described earlier, the latest Census data has indicated that an estimated 34.6 per cent of
all roofs in Sri Lanka use Chrysotile material – a total of 1,800,077 roofs. Based on available
information and RIU’s data modelling, we have arrived at the following values for Chrysotile
roofs per annum;
Greater Colombo5
- Total number of approved houses (2013) =10835
- Estimated average square foot of a house = 1904
- Estimated average square foot of a roof = 952
- Estimated square foot area of the roof of approved houses = 10,312,250
- Chrysotile share of roofing material1(34.6%) = 3,568,039
- Cost (Ft2 of Chrysotile roof1 = LKR 186.93
- Total value / cost of annual housing approvals = LKR 666,973,437
(US$ 4,599,817)
- Total number of approved other building units (2013) = 1422

- Estimated average square foot area of other building units = 5000
- Estimated average square foot area of a roof of other building units = 2500
- Estimated square foot area of roofs of approved other building units = 3,555,000
- Chrysotile roofing material (34.6%) = 1,230,030
- Cost (Ft2 of Chrysotile roof = LKR 186.93
- Total estimated cost of non-housing buildings = LKR 229,929,508
(US$ 1,585,721)
- TOTAL ANNUAL COST (FOR ALL BUILDINGS) = LKR 896,902,945

(US$ 6.17 million)
Island wide
Population of Greater Colombo (20.07 % of total) = 4,207,876

Population of Sri Lanka = 20,966,000
TOTAL ANNUAL COST = US$ 30,819,818
(US$ 30.82 million)

4.2 Cost / value of total stock of Chrysotile roofs approach
Since 1955, Sri Lanka has used locally produced Chrysotile roofing material for home and
commercial use. By 1994, Chrysotile had been gaining in popularity at a rapid pace and
accounted for some 15 per cent of all roofing materials used in Sri Lanka (Demographic
Survey of 1994). According to government data, the extent of Chrysotile use in the Colombo
area was as high as 43 per cent. By 2012, the market penetration of Chrysotile has more
than doubled and accounts for 34.6 per cent of all roofing material, including 64.6 per cent
of all roofing in Colombo. This is an estimated 1.8 million houses with Chrysotile roofing
material.
Chart 4.6 Chrysotile Industry in Sri Lanka
Total number of households with Chrysotile : 1,800,077

Estimated average size of a dwelling : 925
Total square foot area used in homes : 1,665,071,225
Estimated cost at 2015 market price (LKR 186.93 Ft2) : LKR 311,251,764,089
(US$ 2,146,563,890)
Total number of other building units with Chrysotile : 180,008

Estimated average size of a dwelling : 2500
Total Ft2 area in other building units : 450,020,000
Estimated cost at 2015 market price (LKR 186.93 Ft2) : LKR 84,122,238,600
(US$ 580,153,370)
TOTAL ESTIMATED VALUE OF TOTAL STOCK : LKR 395,374,002,689

(US$ 2,726,717,260)
4.3 Cost to manufacturers
This study confirms that there are four major organisations involved in the import of raw
materials and local manufacture of Chrysotile roofing sheets in Sri Lanka. Direct
employment in the industry is estimated at between 4,000 – 4,500 with up to a further
17,000 – 40,000 indirectly employed in the industry as suppliers, dealers and transport
service providers.
The four main players in the industry are recognised as Built Element Ltd. , Rhino Roofing
(Pvt.) Ltd. , Sri Ramco (Pvt.) Ltd. and Sigiri Roofing (Pvt.) Ltd. The first operations began in
1995 when Built Element started their production plant and this was followed by Rhino in
1962. Whilst both of these firms are locally owned, Sri Ramco and Sigiri Roofing are backed
by foreign investment from India.
4.3.1 Value of existing capital investment
Based on the collection of primary data from all current Chrysotile producers in Sri Lanka, it
is estimated that the value of current investment on capital goods is at LKR 8 – 16 billion
(US$ 55 - $110 million).
4.3.2 New investment for production of alternative roofing materials
It has been estimated that the production of alternative roofing materials such as galvanized
zinc and zinc aluminum will require an investment of the same magnitude as that of the
machinery and capital needed for the production of Chrysotile (US$ 55-$110 million).
4.3.3 Loss of income and profits in the industry
For reasons of confidentiality, none of the producers were willing to part with information
on their profits and revenues. However, based on available data, we have estimated
revenue in the industry at US$ 100 million per annum. According to confidential industry
sources that were accessed during our primary research, the recent trend in sales has been
steady with a slight annual increase from 30,000 – 35,000 MT tons.

4.4 Loss of Customs revenue
The production of Chrysotile requires only Chrysotile fiber (imported) which amounts to
around 8 per cent plus water and cement.
Chart 4.7 TOTAL FIBRE IMPORTS FROM 2000 to 2016

Year Total Fiber Imports (Kgs) US $
2000 22,574,922 N/A
2001 23,394,941 N/A
2002 24,140,636 N/A
2003 23,284,995 N/A
2004 33,816,710 N/A
2005 35,911,931 N/A
2006 39,444,687 N/A
2007 46,104,990 N/A
2008 58,113,000 31,426,032
2009 39,378,792 13,781,205
2010 47,875,292 29,089,988
2011 60,979,129 40,228,635
2012 64,385,051 44,037,829
2013 40,977,558 25,228,012
2014 51,340,000 38,807,247

2015 44,887,500 31,086,734
2016 44,992,500 27,416,906

Based on data on asbestos (HS Code: 25249000) from the Department of Customs, the tax
rates are PAL (7.5 per cent), NBT (2 per cent) and VAT (11 per cent). The total duty earned
by Customs in 2015 from this product was LKR 858, 701,483 (US$ 5.9 million) and in 2016
LKR 958, 687,826 (US$ 64, 80537) due to a higher volume of imports.
4.5 Cost to employees
According to the primary research efforts of the team, we have arrived at the following
estimates for the industry workforce;
Employees : 4,500
Indirect employees : 50,000
Dependents (indirect) : 200,000
The average wage of an employee in the industry is estimated at LKR 50, 000 pcm based on
our findings. Thus the monthly loss of income to those directly employed in the industry is
LKR 225, 000,000 (US$ 1,551,724).
Those who are defined as indirectly employed include service providers, suppliers, dealers,
hardware merchants, transporters and also indirect entities. Many of these workers also
face the risk of unemployment in the event that the factories cease to operate.
If we proceed with a conservative assumption that the effect on those employed indirectly
will be impacted half as much as those employed directly, the cost will be LKR 1.25 billion
(US$ 8,620,689)
Direct employees : US $1,551,724

Indirect employees : US $8,620,689
TOTAL COST (PCM) : US $10,172,413
LOSS PER ANNUM: US $122,068,965

4.6 Summary of direct economic costs
Value of total inventory (at 2016 market prices): US $2.5 - $3.0 billion
Annual value of inventory for new houses: US $146 million
Current capital (factory and machinery): US $55 - $110
million
New investment needed for new production: US $55 - $110
million
Annual revenue of producers: US $100 million
Annual customs revenue: US $5.9 million

5. Indirect economic costs
Consideration of indirect economic cost involves multifarious tangible and intangible
impacts that are difficult to monetise with any degree of certainty. However, in this section,
we highlight several key areas that are likely to feel a direct impact that will result in an
indirect economic cost as a consequence of any potential ban. These include the impact on
Sri Lanka’s international trade with an emphasis on tea exports, the prospect of possible
litigation on the part of producers and those enterprises that stand to take a financial hit
and the potential impact on the tourism industry.
5.1 International trade and importing of raw materials
Whilst the manufacture of Chrysotile is done locally, the raw material, Chrysotile fiber, has
to be imported from several overseas destinations that include Russia and Brazil. The
imports of raw material have steadily increased over the past 15 years, from 22.5 million
kilogrammes in 2000 to 51.3 million kilogrammes in 2014. In 2014, the value of total imports
is estimated at US$ 38.8 million.
According to Customs data, Russia accounts for the lion share of the market, accounting for
as much as 89 per cent of total Chrysotile fiber imports. Next is Brazil with an estimated 9
per cent of total raw material imports, followed by Kazakhstan, India and China who jointly
account for around 2 per cent. Given the important role played by Russia in the trade, it
would be important to note the significance of Russia as a trade partner with Sri Lanka.
Chart 5.1 Fiber imports

5.1.1 Trade with Russia
Diplomatic relations between the Soviet Union and Sri Lanka were established on February
19, 1957 but the history of Russian – Sri Lankan relations originates much earlier. The
Russian Consulate was established in Galle in 1892 and in 1959 the Friendship Society with
Sri Lanka was established in Moscow.
The agreements mentioned below have been entered into between Russia and Sri Lanka:-
1. Economic & Technical Corporation

2. Housing Constructions
3. Goods Exchange
4. Air Services
5. Education
Chart 5.2 Trade between Russia and Sri Lanka
According to the Export Development Board, Sri Lanka’s main export products to Russia are
tea, apparel, industrial & surgical gloves of rubber, desiccated coconut, activated carbon,
discharge lamps, green tea, mixed coir fiber, coir pads, coir yarn, pneumatic and retreated
rubber tires and tubes.
The main imports from Russia to Sri Lanka are base metal products, paper and paper
products, non - metallic mineral products, chemicals and plastic products, electrical and
electronic products and parts and machinery woven fabrics.

Chart 5.3 Top 10 Sri Lankan exporters to Russia
As illustrated by the composition of the main exports from Sri Lanka to Russia, tea is the
standout product that is demanded by Russian consumers. Tea has traditionally played a
vital role in the Sri Lanka economy and contributed US$ 1.5 billion in 2013 whilst employing
some 2 million workers (direct and indirect). Sri Lanka exports its tea mainly to Russia and
several Middle East countries including Iraq (31 kt), Syria (11 kt), Kuwait (9 kt), Jordan (6 kt)
and Saudi Arabia (5 kt). Other significant importers in 2015 were Turkey (33 kt), Japan (8 kt)
and Germany (7 kt)5.
Given the volatility in some of these important markets, many of which are global trouble-
spots, Sri Lanka is always exposed to unstable prices. As such, the stability that the Russian
market offers is of vital importance to the local industry that has been involved in fierce
competition with Kenya over recent years for the top-spot in global tea exporters.
Domestically, the industry has very serious challenges from climate change and the
comparatively high price of labour.
Any attempts to ban the importation of Chrysotile fiber from Russia threaten to destabilise
this all-important trade tie with this important trade partner. The Russian Ambassador to Sri
Lanka has already appealed to the Sri Lankan Government to reconsider its proposed
asbestos ban and work with stakeholders to find a mutually acceptable solution to address
health issues, which it believes are overblown.
At the recently held Annual General Meeting of the Sri Lanka-Russia Business Council,
Russian Ambassador Alexander A. Karchava appealed to the council to intervene in the
Government’s decision to ban the use of Chrysotile fibre in Sri Lanka, stating that such a
move could strain relations between the two countries.
(Financial Times, 21st October 2016)

5
Dr. Janaka Ratnasiri – The Island
During this research assignment, the RIU also met with Mr. Rohan Pethiyagoda, Chairman of
the Sri Lanka Tea Board, to discuss the potential impact on the tea industry of any ban on
Chrysotile imports from Russia. In response, the Chairman said that such a move posed
significant risk to the local tea industry given the importance of the Russian market to
exporters. He added that developing countries seem to suffer from a phenomenon of
embarking upon drastic policy changes that are not fully thought out and the full impact of
the consequences not considered. This is in contrast to the developed world that takes a
long time to research the impact of implementing changes in policy, especially on an issue
as important as the most popular type of roofing material in the country.
5.1.2 Trade with Brazil
Bilateral relations between Brazil and Sri Lanka were established in 1960 and the Framework
Agreement on Technical Cooperation, in force since 2010, is the main legal instrument for
cooperation and involves the following areas:-
● Biofuels technology, production, and distribution;

● Agricultural and livestock research, production, and trading; and
● Development of social programmes.
Bilateral trade increased between 2002 and 2013, growing from US$ 24.9 million to US$ 137
million, with a surplus for Brazil. During the same period, Brazilian imports from Sri Lanka
increased by a total of US$ 1.9 million to US$ 47 million.
5.1.3 Trade with Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan takes 4th place in the global distribution of asbestos production in the world,
following Russia, China, and Brazil. It produces about 214,000 metric tons of Chrysotile
asbestos per year, which is about 10 per cent of the worldwide output yearly. Around 90 per
cent is exported to other countries, whilst the rest is used locally. In 2013 Sri Lanka imported
517,675 kg of fibre by spending US$ 374,206. While there is an increase in 2014 up to
1,237,500 kg by spending US$ one million fibre imports from Kazakhstan increased up to 2.3
per cent in 2014.6
6
Source: Overview of Chrysotile Asbestos in Kazakhstan,2013
http://ibasecretariat.org/cop6_side_event_kazakhstan_2013.pdf
5.1.4 WTO and other trade agreements
In the event that a ban on Chrysotile takes place, there will also be important international
trade agreements and World Trade Organisation (WTO) commitments that might be
negatively impacted. Sri Lanka has been a member of the WTO since 1 January 1995 and a
member of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) since 29 July 1948. As a
founding member of the GATT, Sri Lanka remains fully committed to the WTO by pursuing
an outward-oriented multilateral trade system. Therefore, any ban on the import of
Chrysotile fibre could be viewed by the source countries as going against the principles of
the WTO.
According to the WTO, Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Article 2.2: With
respect to central government bodies: “Members shall ensure that technical regulations are
not prepared, adopted or applied with a view to or with the effect of creating unnecessary
obstacles to international trade. For this purpose, technical regulations shall not be more
trade-restrictive than necessary to fulfill a legitimate objective; taking account of the risks
non-fulfillment would create. Such legitimate objectives are, inter alia: national security
requirements; the prevention of deceptive practices; protection of human health or safety,
animal or plant life or health, or the environment. In assessing such risks, relevant elements
of consideration are, inter alia: available scientific and technical information, related
processing technology or intended end-uses of products."
According to the WTO guidelines on sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures7, any product ban
that affects international trade requires advance notification as well as documentation of
local evidence and research proving harm, before trade and import can be suspended.
No such procedures of local scientific or technical studies have been conducted in Sri Lanka
to date (Chrysotile in Sri Lanka, CIC).
5.2 Tourism
Sri Lanka's tourism industry has been booming since a three-decade war ended in 2009.
Earnings from tourism increased significantly in 2015 recording a 22.6 per cent increase
against the previous year. In the twelve months to December, the Island has earned US$
2,980.7 million from tourism.
The State Tourism Promotion Office states that tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka rose 11.8 per
cent from a year earlier to 186,288 in August 2016, with total visitors up 16 per cent for
2016 to 1.359 million. Arrivals to Sri Lanka have also increased from 448,000 in 2009 to 1.8
million in 2015. Currently Sri Lanka shares 0.13 per cent of the total tourists’ arrivals and 0.2
7
The WTO Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS
Agreement) http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/sps_e/spsagr_e.htm
per cent of the total tourist earnings of the world. According to estimates made by the
World Travel and Tourism Council (WITC) the direct and total contribution to the GDP and
employment by the travel and tourism sector of Sri Lanka is far better than the world and
Asia Pacific averages. Nevertheless, the potential for growth lies untapped, as the travel and
tourism direct and total contribution to the GDP and employment of Sri Lanka is
comparatively lower than regional competitors such as Maldives, Cambodia, Thailand and
Malaysia. According to the Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau, more than 2.2 million
tourists are expected in 2016. In order to cater to such a high number of tourists, it is
estimated that 40,000 to 50,000 rooms are required, where only around 30,000 hotel rooms
are available - both in tourist hotels and supplementary establishments as at end 2015.
More than 6,400 hotel rooms are expected to add on in 2016 and many new hotel projects
to enhance facilities are in the pipeline.
Chart 5.4 Tourist arrivals by countries of residence Jan 2015 - 2016
Russian tourists are an important source of foreign exchange earnings for Sri Lanka and an
estimated 69,718 Russian tourists arrived in 2014 spending an estimated US$ 112 million.
Chart 5.5 Tourist arrivals from Russia

5.3 Litigation
Every country in the world where Chrysotile has been banned has witnessed a dramatic and
immediate mushrooming of lawsuits that have cost hundreds of millions to taxpayers and
businesses, notwithstanding the form of legal system. In the United States the RAND
Corporation8 recently estimated the total costs of asbestos-related claims will exceed US$
250 billion. Of the US$ 54 billion spent to date, 65 per cent of those claims have come from
non-malignant cases with more than 50 per cent of costs being allocated to “transaction
costs”. Outside the US, numerous cases have been initiated by the efforts of US and
Australian law firms and their associations acting abroad. In the UK, more than US$ 17.7
billion of litigation expenses are estimated to have accrued. In Japan it is estimated that
more than US$ 22.732 billion have been spent on litigation so far (Chrysotile in Sri Lanka,
CIC).
The highest levels of asbestos related litigation around the world have been in developed
countries.
A map to show the GDP per capita around the Globe
Chart 5.6 Annual value of Tourism
5.4 Summary of Indirect Economic Cost
8
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/documented_briefings/2005/DB397.pdf

5.4 Summary of Indirect Economic Cost

6. Social cost
6.1 Cost to the industry workers and dependents
According to primary research as presented in the previous section, the number of workers
who are directly involved in working in the industry is estimated at 4,500 with an additional
50,000 workers indirectly involved at various points on the supply chain. In addition to the
direct financial and psychological impact of being laid off work, there will be an estimated
18,000 family members who will also be hit with possible economic hardship or worse.
Employees: 4,500
Dependents: 18,000
Indirect employees: 50,000
Dependents (indirect) 200,000
TOTAL: 272,500
Should consideration be given to those indirectly employed at various points along the
supply chain, some 272,500 individuals are likely to feel a negative financial impact and this
will have serious social cost implications.
6.2 The household level (End users)
As part of our primary research, a survey of 100 households that currently use Chrysotile
roofing material was completed in Colombo, Jaffna, Kandy and Gampaha. The survey
sampling is structured to the extent that we covered a statistically significant critical mass of
urban, rural and estate community households9.
9
Allocating 30 per cent of our sample size to cover the estate community has resulted in an
average dwelling size that is much smaller (in our sample) than the (national level) estimates
that we have used earlier that was based on available data from the Department of Census
and Statistics and the Central Bank. Nevertheless, this survey provides great insights into
the micro-level issues faced by each of the three types of communities that have been
defined as rural, urban and estate.
Chart 6.1 Sample sizes from household survey
According to the survey, the largest of the dwellings were found to be those in urban areas,
followed by those in rural areas with the estate community houses accounting for the
smallest size dwellings.
Chart 6.2 Square foot area of the houses

Chart 6.3 Houses by sector and size of dwelling
Chart 6.4 Average repair cost of household

Where repair and replacement costs are concerned, the respondents to the survey (have for
the most part) indicated a cost of around LKR 200,000 for a small house of between 500-
1000 Ft2. However, the actual repair cost to a chrysotile roofing sheet can be as low as LKR
50.
Chart 6.5 Disturbances to household
Impact Scale
Nil - 1, 2
Marginal - 3, 4
Moderate - 5, 6
Significant - 7, 8
Damaging - 9, 10
7.3
Respondents were also asked about the potential disturbance to those living in their homes
should they have to replace the entire roof arising from an immediate ban on Chrysotile.
Even if the government did not introduce a ban that covered roofing that was already in
use, a very likely consequence of a ban on the future sale of Chrysotile roofing sheets is that
people will not have access to replacements for damaged sheets. They would then be faced
with a situation of having to replace their entire roofing material. In such a situation, most
people expect the disturbance to their household to be significant to severe.
It is interesting to note that in the Sri Lankan cultural context, almost half of the homes
surveyed had elderly people living under the same roof whilst 36 per cent of homes had
children and 17 per cent had disabled or sick people residing within a family setting.
As a result, the majority of people considered that there would be a significant negative
health and education impact on their household from a situation where they had to
undertake major changes to their roofing material.

Chart 6.6 Percentage of vulnerable groups from household survey
Chart 6.7 Assessing the risk to them
Disruption
Scale
Nil - 1, 2
Marginal - 3, 4
Moderate - 5, 6
Significant - 7, 8
Damaging - 9, 10
Finally, the field research team asked the respondents to comment on the likely financial
impact on the home owner if a ban was imposed. For the vast majority, being faced with
such a scenario was considered as stretching their financial capacity beyond their means. It
is also of concern that most of them would need to borrow from the bank, family or a loan-
shark to meet such a cost that was nevertheless essential to their overall well-being. Such a
scenario poses the danger of increasing indebtedness that has many negative social
consequences. Furthermore, this scenario would tend to be contradictory to the national
housing policy that purports to promote affordable housing for all. This is discussed at
length in a later section of this report and in Annex B.

Chart 6.8 Impact on financial ability to cope with the change
Impact Scale
Nil - 1, 2
Marginal - 3, 4
Moderate - 5, 6
Significant - 7, 8
Damaging - 9, 10
Chart 6.9 How would you finance the change?

6.3 Social infrastructure
6.3.1 Hospitals
In the government sector, the most significant in terms of buildings are schools and
hospitals. These are also perhaps the most important in terms of the social impact that
can affect children, the elderly and the sick. Government data indicates 9,662 operational
schools in the island along with 1,085 hospitals that are under government
administration.
Chart 6.10 Total numbers of hospitals by type
However, due to the lack of any data available on the roofing materials of these buildings,
the RIU conducted a primary research that covered 100 schools and 100 hospitals in four
districts. According to the findings of this study, approximately 25 per cent of all hospital
roofs in the survey had Chrysotile roofing with an additional 24 per cent having a mix of
Chrysotile with clay tiles (8 per cent), concrete (8 per cent) or aluminum (8 per cent)

Findings on hospitals10
Chart 6.11 Findings on Hospitals
If the above findings are extrapolated to the national level, a total of 153 hospitals will be
directly impacted which represents some 29,042 beds across the island. In addition, a total
of 146 hospitals use Chrysotile for part of their roofs. If we take this average as 50 per cent
of the covering, it translates into 73 hospitals with 13,940 hospital beds.
6.3.2 Schools
As with hospitals, there is currently no official data available on the roofing material
composition of schools in Sri Lanka.
10
For the categorisation of hospitals in Sri Lanka, ten hospitals were selected under five
different types - 2 District Hospitals, 2 Base Hospitals type A, 2 Base Hospitals type B, 2
Divisional General Hospital type A and 2 Divisional General Hospital type B followed by the
highest number of beds in each type.
Findings on schools11
Chart 6.12 Findings on Schools
The research covered a sample of 48 school buildings in four districts. This research
confirmed that 22 per cent had Chrysotile roofs while an additional 5 per cent had a mix of
Chrysotile and clay tiles.
Should these statistics be extrapolated to the national level, a total of 2126 schools will be
directly impacted. This represents some 902,109 children island-wide. In addition, a total of
483 schools use Chrysotile for part of their roofs mixed with other materials. If this average
is 50 per cent of the covering, it translates into 242 schools and 102,512 children.
11
The sampling methodology used in the study sought to represent the types of schools that
are classified in Sri Lanka - two National Schools, two Navodya Schools, two Isuru Schools
and six other schools (Private Schools) from each district.
6.4 Implications on the National Housing policy
According to government policy on housing, the main policy goal is to ensure the right to
live in “adequate, stable, qualitative, affordable, sustainable, environment friendly and
secure housing with services for creating a high living standard on the timely needs of the
people.”
However, according to the findings of this study, there will be some contradiction between
the stated goals of the government and banning Chrysotile, especially on aspects related to
“stable”, “qualitative”, “affordable” and “environmentally friendly” goals as stated in the
policy document given the challenge of finding suitable substitutes or alternative products.
In the meantime, the demand for affordable housing in Sri Lanka is gathering pace every
year. According to the Central Bank, the estimated annual demand for new housing in Sri
Lanka is estimated at between 50,000 – 100,000 units, but around two thirds of the
incremental demand is not met. Consequently, the back-log continues to increase and the
pent-up demand places further strain on the government as well as low income members of
the population.
The twin pressure of urbanisation along with population growth trends will have the most
severe impact on the urban population. According to the World Bank, Colombo, Gampaha,
Kalutara and Kandy are amongst those districts that have the highest people-per-square-
kilometre density.
People in the mid and lower income groups not only have the challenge of land affordability
in urban areas, but also have to face the rising cost of construction material.12
Given that the National Housing Development budget (Capital Expenditure) for 2016 is LKR 6
billion (US$ 41,758,620), we can estimate the cost of the roofing component at between
LKR 605 million and LKR 1.2 billion for 2016. In the event of a ban of Chrysotile, the cost of a
roof could escalate by as much as 40 per cent, depending on the alternative material used
by the government. Under a worst case scenario, the government would need to increase
its housing budget by up to LKR 484 million in order to build the same number of houses or
alternatively, reduce the total number of houses to be built by 8 per cent. Whilst the former
option would take its toll on the state budget which is under considerable pressure to
reduce the public debt burden, the latter would prove devastating on the people who
already suffer from an affordable housing shortfall the National Housing Development
12
A World Bank report claimed that the cost of buildings has tripled from 1990 to 2010
because of the rapid increase in land prices, particularly in city areas, and also because of
price increases and shortages of construction material. “Building materials that registered
substantial price increases include sand (1,070 percent increase), timber (568 percent), and
bricks (678 percent). Labour costs also increased by nearly 250 percent during this period,”
according to the World Bank report.
budget (Capital Expenditure) for 2016 is LKR 6 billion (US$ 41,758,620), we can estimate the
cost of the roofing component at between LKR 605 million and LKR 1.2 billion for 2016. In
the event of a ban of Chrysotile, the cost of a roof could escalate by as much as 40 per cent,
depending on the alternative material used by the government. Under a worst case
scenario, the government would need to increase its housing budget by up to LKR 484
million in order to build the same number of houses or alternatively, reduce the total
number of houses to be built by 8 per cent. Whilst the former option would take its toll on
the state budget which is under considerable pressure to reduce the public debt burden, the
latter would prove devastating on the people who already suffer from an affordable housing
shortfall13.
6.5 Summary of Social Costs
Chart 6.14 Summary of social costs
13
UPDATE (10-11-2016): The proposal made by Hon. Sajith Premadasa, Minister of Housing
and Construction, to accept the National Policy on Construction and its implementation
mechanism prepared by the National Advisory Council on Constructions under the
provisions of Construction Industries Development Act no. 33 of 2014. This with a view of
providing strategic leadership for all parties in the construction field, encouraging
sustainable development reforms and improvements, promoting low cost and
environmental friendly building materials and systems, suitable research promotions,
compilation of standards and norms and promoting construction overseas, was approved by
the Cabinet of Ministers.

7. The impact on the environment
7.1 Removal and disposal
In the event of a blanket ban on Chrysotile, the first challenge would be that of removal and
disposal. The three main considerations that need to be factored into our model for these
have been identified as follows:-
- Removal of material from roofs

- Transportation of the material from the dwelling to the disposal site
- The actual cost of disposal and maintaining the disposal site
7.1.1 Removal and transportation
Starting with the cost of removal, our estimates are based on the current market rates for
construction workers in Sri Lanka. However, as there is no regulation in force, the cost of
special safety equipment has not been factored in (safety equipment could and should be
used). As a result, we have arrived at a very conservative rate of LKR 30, 000 per 1000 Ft2 of
Chrysotile roofing or LKR 3 Ft2.
For transportation cost from the dwelling to a dump site, we have again taken the standard
rate based on the average vehicle hire cost which is a function of the cost of fuel. As there
are currently no dump sites operated by the Central Environment Authority (CEA) that can
be used for the purpose of Chrysotile disposal, it is assumed that provisions will be made to
have dump sites at each of the 25 districts in the country. Therefore, we have taken a very
conservative estimate of 10 kms average travel from dwelling to dump site at a cost of LKR
30 per km.
However, if a ban takes place, it would be inconceivable that a material that the
government deems to be “unsafe” could be removed and transported sans any safety
equipment. In the industrialised world, extensive use of safety equipment characterises the
removal process and transportation of Chrysotile sheets. If Sri Lanka imposes a ban that
requires the removal of the sheets, then by the same reasoning, safety measures including
equipment along with regulations would be needed to guide the process of removal and
transportation. Consequently, the real cost may escalate significantly.

Chart 7.1 Removal cost
7.1.2 Disposal
According to available studies and estimations, some 50000 MT (in full) of hazardous waste
is generated annually in Sri Lanka. Most of this hazardous waste is disposed in a haphazard
manner in unsuitable locations. These malpractices lead to severe environmental and health
issues. Being a signatory of the Basel Convention of the trans-boundary movement of the
hazardous waste, Sri Lanka has taken some vital actions per the obligations of the
convention. All signatory countries should develop and implement necessary legal
provisions for the proper management of hazardous waste in the country.
Whilst there are no specific guidelines for the disposal of Chrysotile, guidelines on disposal
addresses several issues related to the selection of disposal sites and advise on minimising
health risks, environmental impacts, public acceptance and costs.
A general listing of various factors to be considered for siting hazardous waste disposal
facilities is presented below. Specific concerns that come to the fore in the event of
managing the safe disposal of Chrysotile include consideration of the following:-

Physical Constraints
● Surface soils
● Subsurface geology and aquifers
● Topography
● Surface water and streams, flooding
Ecological Constraints
● Flora and fauna
● Conservation value
● Habitat value
Human Values
● Landscape
● Recreation
● Historical/archaeological/cultural
● Population density
● Employment opportunities
Land Use
● Agricultural value
● Extractive industry/mining
● Water supply (surface and subsurface)
● Development potential
● Transportation corridor or utility use
● Land use designation (residential/industrial, etc.)
Waste Disposal Suitability

● Proximity to users
● Transport access
● Availability to utilities and services
● Adjacent land use - zones
● Site modifications
Given the lack of information available on the potential cost of local disposal, we have taken
the Australian cost model for disposal and modified it to accommodate the local market
conditions. Essentially, we have noted that the cost of disposal consists of labour (40 per
cent) and land and equipment (60 per cent). Keeping equipment and land costs as the same
for Sri Lanka, we have adjusted the labour costs to represent prevailing domestic market
rates which are estimated at around 10 per cent of the Australian labour rate.

Australian disposal cost (Ft2): US$ 10.5
(Australian labour cost component: US$ 4.22)
Sri Lankan disposal cost (Ft2): US$ 6.76

(Sri Lankan labour cost component: US$ 0.422)
Taking the existing stock of inventory in use in Sri Lanka (1.8 million), the total removal cost
will be in the staggering range of US $11.25 billion with an average household spend of US$
6,253. According to our estimates, removing and safely disposing all of the current stock will
be more than four times the cost of existing stock.
7.2 Replacement preferences
One option that none of the survey respondents selected was polymer roofing14 as they
were unaware of its availability. Polymer roofing is a material that is set to enter the market
in the near future. Polymer sheets are set to provide an alternative to Chrysotile in terms of
shape and size of the sheets. However, this material does not compete well in terms of
price and durability, especially under hot conditions, when longevity will be only around half
of that of Chrysotile. The breaking load of polymer roofing is also much less than that of
Chrysotile and its potential environmental impact is still unknown.
The RIU primary research also focused on peoples’ preferences in the event that Chrysotile
was no longer available in the market. Here, most home owners expressed their preference
to switch to clay or cement tiles, followed by concrete roofs.
Chart 7.2 Alternative roof preferences
14
Polymer roofing specifically refers to a type of roofing which has not yet entered the Sri Lankan market.
According to Introduction of Fibre-Reinforced Polymers − Polymers and Composites: Concepts, Properties and
Processes; Martin Alberto Masuelli, Polymers are different from other construction materials like ceramics and
metals, because of their macromolecular nature.
Nevertheless there is a large gap between peoples’ preferences and their willingness to pay
for alternative roofing materials. The survey found that 40 per cent would not be willing to
pay an additional 40 per cent for alternative materials whilst 46 per cent would consider it
depending on their circumstances at the time. Only 14 per cent confirmed that they would
be willing to pay an extra 40 per cent. Of those that did not want to pay 40 per cent more
for their roofing materials, most were willing to pay a smaller extra amount, not exceeding
10 per cent of the current Chrysotile costs. A significant number were not able to consider
increasing their roofing material budgets.
7.3 Environmental implications of alternatives
Scientists and experts in the field have defined four phases in the lifecycle of a roofing
product - raw materials, manufacturing, service on the roof, and the end of lifecycle. Phase
one of the lifecycle is where materials are extracted and transported for manufacturing,
then refined into the final product and transported to the distributor or end user. On the
roof the product reacts with the environment throughout its service life. After its service has
expired, it reaches the fourth and final phase - the end of the lifecycle. Most green products
involve recycling the material for other purposes or introducing it to the manufacturing
process a second time. Thus, the final stage would also include some dumping of the waste
material.
According to the weight of research, evidence based on preference choices and budgets of
households, any interruption to the supply of Chrysotile roofing sheets will inevitably lead to
an immediate hike in the demand for clay tiles. However, producing clay tiles involves
excavating clay from the earth’s crust where cement is only added in a small percentage.
The excavations can go very deep or cutting off small mounds of land. However, serious
environmental consequences of such action can cause natural disasters such as landslides
which have continued to cause deadly damage to the lives and properties in Sri Lanka at an
alarming rate in recent years15. Clay soil retains water, minerals and even metals that the
plants need for its growth. Removing the top clay layers will cause damage to these
environments as well. According to environmental experts all soils cannot be used for tile
production and the country will very soon run out of clay to produce tiles. Consequently,
there will be very serious issues of sustainability if clay tiles become the preferred
alternative.
In addition, the degradation or weathering of the final product and burning will release
greenhouse gasses giving rise to global warming which will be against the Paris Agreement
that Sri Lanka is also a part of. This is a long-term goal of keeping increases in the global
average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels (Annex A provides
further information in this regard).
7.4 Manpower implications
Typically, Chrysotile roofing is the least demanding in terms of manpower as compared with
alternative materials for building new houses. For example, the use of wood for rafters
differs greatly between various types of roofing materials. Consequently, the demand for
labour in the construction process will increase significantly, especially for tile and concrete
roofs.
15
 According to the Government of Sri Lanka Disaster Management Centre (May
2016), 301,602 people have been affected by floods and landslides in May. 104
people are known to have died and 99 people were missing. An estimated 21,484
people were still displaced as a result of the disaster and are living in camps and
temporary accommodation - including schools. It is estimated that 623 houses have
been destroyed and 4,414 have been damaged.

Chart 7.4 Annual demands for occupation in the construction Industry
In the current environment where there is a short-fall in skilled construction workers, partly
due to worker migration to the Middle East where there is a much higher earning potential,
any sudden hike in demand for construction labour will result in long delays for work to be
completed. Such a situation would also exert upward pressure on construction workers
wages which will serve to further escalate the cost of construction. As described earlier, the
cost of construction as well as land prices pose a serious threat to the goal of providing
affordable houses to large sections of the population.
7.5 Material performance and durability
According to the feedback from the residents of homes with Chrysotile roofing, we can note
that the majority is moderately satisfied with Chrysotile while a significant number also
complained about heat and repair costs. For many of those interviewed in the survey, a
Chrysotile roof represented an upgrade from iron sheets which are still popular in the low
income housing category. The overall feeling was that Chrysotile material was not perfect
but was the best of what is considered as affordable.

According to a study that was published in the Built-Environment journal of Sri Lanka,
(following extensive research and testing), Chrysotile was found to be give the highest
ranking material when compared to alternatives on thermal performance, strength,
availability, health hazards, cost and other important parameters. The RIU’s own primary
research findings which include a qualitative assessment on the performance of alternative
materials are given in Annex A.
Chart 7.5 Summary of roofing materials

7
Chart 7.6 Roofing material cost per ft2

Chart 7.7 Housing Inventory using Chrysotile
SOURCE: RIU (2016)
Assuming the lifespan of a

Chrysotile roof to be 40 to
50 years, the following is the
replacement cost
Chart 7.8 Cost of replacing Chrysotile roofing material during a 40 to 50 year life cycle

As illustrated above, the long-term implications of switching to alternatives need to be
considered with reference to the roof replacement schedule that is expected over the
coming years as those Chrysotile roofs that are currently in use will need to be replaced in
future years with more expensive alternatives. For example, the Chrysotile stock that was
installed in 1970 should have been replaced by 2010, given a 40 year durability assumption.
With this assumption, it is noted that replacing Chrysotile roofs with concrete will cost
almost three times more than if it is replaced with new Chrysotile sheets. Consequently
home-owners will experience serious challenges in a future scenario of non-Chrysotile
availability.
7.6 Other Implications of switching to alternatives
From the results of the survey, it is clear that for the vast majority of people, the only
options they would consider are concrete and tile roofing. However, given the difference in
cost between tiles and concrete slabs, it is expected that most people will opt for tiles. At
present, the production of Chrysotile requires an estimated 1500 tons of cement per day for
the four local manufacturers of the Chrysotile fibre cement roofing sheets. Cement suppliers
have claimed that the Chrysotile industry is their largest customer. As such, if the production
of Chrysotile ceased and people switched to tiles, the impact on the cement industry would
be severe. One industry expert claimed that the cement industry would collapse due to such
a sudden drop in demand.
Switching to tiles would also have important environmental implications given that the
demand for sand and clay would escalate beyond the resource availability of the Island. The
increasing scarcity of river sand in particular is reflected in the price escalation that has
taken place over recent years.

7.7 Summary of environmental costs
The key findings from other countries point to a need to mitigate health and safety risks
from the removal and disposal, including the release of fiber into the immediate
environment. Such measures will be costly to the government.
There is also a serious mismatch between preferences on alternatives and their budgets for
more expensive materials. The product that people would want to switch to and their
ability to finance the switch are not compatible and as a result, many people may remain in
dwellings with iron. sheets.

Less Chrysotile is very likely to result in more carbon emissions and increased risk from
landslides due to the switch to clay tiles.
There will also be related demands on construction labour which are likely to have
implications on the cost of construction.

8. Overall macro-economic impact
According to the findings of this study, the direct impact of a potential ban on Chrysotile in
Sri Lanka is very significant. The annual value of new roofing material is estimated at around
US$ 146.429.In addition, there is an estimated US$ 55-110 million worth of capital
investment that could be rendered unproductive. This would lead to the loss of some US$
122.1 million in the form of wages for workers who are either directly or indirectly
dependent on the industry. Furthermore, there would be direct losses to the Department of
Customs of almost US$ 2 million in addition to the losses in profit to the producers
estimated at US$ 100 million per annum.
It is important to note that Chrysotile has been the preferred choice of roofing material for
low and mid income families as they upgrade from cheaper and less robust materials to one
that they consider as sustainable and able to meet the basic needs in terms of shelter. The
quality of the product and its durability has in fact made it a product of choice also for
higher income households, especially in the Western Province. Consequently, we expect
Chrysotile to account for an increasing share of the housing inventory in the country (in the
absence of any ban).The current value of total inventory in use (at 2016 market prices)
accounts for a staggering US$ 2.726 billion or 3.38 per cent of the country’s GDP.
Chart 8.1 Percentage of households using Chrysotile inventory

In addition to the direct costs, the indirect or induced costs have been presented in this
report and our findings indicate some level of risk to vital industries, including tea and
tourism from any possible issues regarding trade with Russia in particular. In addition, there
is an un-opened “can of worms” with regard to litigation where the potential for damaging
legal action remains as a threat that would lead to losses for the tax-payers.
It is also important to note that the highest concentration of Chrysotile is in the Western
Province where there is the highest level of economic activity and contribution to GDP.
Therefore, disruptions would impact disproportionately on the most important geographic
area of the Island where GDP contribution is concerned.
From an international perspective, not all countries have introduced legislation regarding
the use, control and import of asbestos. Developing nations such as China, India16 and
Russia have not yielded to pressure from the industrialised world’s attempts to reduce the
amount of exposure to asbestos and are still using Chrysotile for materials such as
corrugated asbestos roofing sheets for schools, factories and homes. There have been
several attempts by third party organisations to persuade governments to take action, but
so far there has not been any action taken. Instead, nations including Thailand, Vietnam
and India have focused on strengthening the safe use policies for the material and thereby
averted any risk of major economic loss to individuals as well as the country as a whole.
16
HISTORIC DECISION FROM INDIA’S SUPREME COURT: In a very important decision
rendered on 21 January, the Supreme Court of India refused to grant the petition to ban
asbestos that was filed by an NGO connected to the anti-asbestos movement. Rather, the
Court ordered the national and state governments to better regulate the use of asbestos.
This historic decision opens the door to the strategy proposed by Quebec chrysotile
asbestos producers to export, along with the fibre, its unique expertise on safe and
responsible use.
• NO to the petition for a ban on all uses of asbestos

• YES to better regulation
• THE COURT CRITICIZED THE ANTI-ASBESTOS NGO BEHIND THE PETITION for the petition’s
lack of authenticity and the failure to prove its claims
( http://www.chrysotile.com/data/inde_janvier2011_en.pdf)

ANNEX A - SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT FEEDBACK
FROM EXPERTS

Table 8.2 Summary of Environmental Impact – Feedback from experts
Type of roofing Durability Cost (Ft2) Environmental Is it imported or Other information such production,
material Impact locally produced strength etc.
Polymer roofing May last Expensive Less degradable and Both  Plastic does not handle extreme heat
sheets within 5 to 7 ,relative can accumulate in the very well
years to metal environment if not  Plastic tends to occasionally chip when
depending treated well metal will not as easily
on the  Will provide natural lighting for indoors
Polymer and  If damaged during installation or in
the weather extreme weather a chip or crack can
conditions spread to ruin the entire panel
 Plastic has more aesthetic appeal than
metal
 Sometimes needs a special kind of
paint if you want to paint the plastic
panels
 Not as flimsy as metal and the weight is
usually better for extreme
weather.Commonly more water-tight
than metal.
Clay tiles Clay tiles can Clay tiles Made from a natural  Clay tiles are resistant to strong winds
last for as cost about earth derived and cannot be destroyed in a fire.
long as 100 30 per material, they are Because of the way they are shaped,
years. cent more easily recycled. Clay tiles protect the underlayment of
However, than However, increasing your roof, while also creating an air
due to small concrete production can raises pocket thereby helping to insulate and
hazards like tiles issues of isolate any unwanted heat or cold
coconuts US$10 to sustainability. from being transferred to your home’s
falling on the 15 Ft2 attic space.

roof or the Clay roofing tiles have a water
presence of absorption of about 6 per cent. While
monkeys most Clay roofing tiles weigh only 600
and other – 650 pounds per square. In colder
animals on climates, Clay tiles have the tendency
the roof, to crack or shatter due to freezing and
regular thawing cycles. As a result, Clay tiles
breakage are mostly found in warmer climates.
and Since Clay is a naturally occurring
replacement material, clay tiles maintain their
characterises original color for years despite being
clay tile subjected to weather conditions.
roofs.
Zinc Aluminium Expensive Not environmentally  Coating composition of Aluminum 55
Sheets friendly since metals per cent, Zinc 43.4 per cent & Silicon
are a threat to the 1.6 per cent, and a polyester based
environment finish coating on both sides of the
sheet to protect the material from
adverse corrosive elements.
Metal Sheets17 Metal roofs Expensive Metal roofs can be  Metal roofs also can withstand strong
have been quite noisy in the winds and is a resilient roofing type.
found to last event of heavy rain or You will not have to worry about
between 40 hail compared to maintenance and upkeep if you go
and 70 architectural roof the metal roofing route. A metal roof
years, but it shingles or tile system is an energy efficient roofing
depends on shingles. type, because it reflects solar heat
the material and can cut back on cooling costs
17
This refers to Metal sheets in general and does not cover one type - includes Aluminium and Silicon coated steel
that you immensely. The metal roofing will not
choose to go up into flames in the event of a
make your lightning strike.
metal from.  Commonly quite cheap and affordable
 Is wholly more durable than plastic
 Constructing a roof with corrugated
metal is difficult to work with in windy
weather because it is light-weight
 Will have to be treated for rust
 Can dent in extreme weather
 Only a small crew needed when working
with metal corrugated roofing
 Can be painted very easily
 Commonly rigid and flimsy
 Noisier than plastic in extreme weather
like hard rain or hail.
 A false ceiling will need to be installed
if you do not want the heat that the
metal absorbs to radiate inside
Concrete Concrete Relatively Local Concrete tile surfaces can be textured or
tiles should cheap smooth, and tile edges can be ragged or
protect your uniform. They are resistant to hail, wind
roof for 50 and fire, making them a very safe roofing
years plus material when properly installed.
Concrete roofing tiles have a water
absorption of about 13 per cent.
Consequently, this higher rate of water
absorption leads to the development of

mildew and stains on Concrete tiles.
Absorbed water also increases the already
heavy weight of a Concrete tile and puts
increases pressure on the roof structure.
Concrete tiles can weigh anywhere from
820 to 1.100 pounds per square depending
on the style. In some cases, concrete tiles
are not recommended for use on
buildings, unless the roof framing is
reinforced to support the added weight.
Concrete tiles are not as susceptible to
damage due to freezing temperatures, and
therefore can be used in almost any
climate. The color-thru technology used in
concrete tiles is not as effective in
maintaining the original bright tile color,
and concrete tiles are known to fade over
time. Due to its porous nature, Concrete
tiles are also more prone to stains than
Clay tiles.
Other alternatives traditional
Asphalts sheets asphalt
roofing that
lasts only
from 10 to
20 years

Environmental Impact
1. A. As substitute products have shorter life spans than Chrysotile containing

products, what is the current clay tile consumption availability and future
requirement?
Three main types of clay - kaolinite, ball clay and brick clay - are used for export
industries. Yellow, red and blue colour ball clay is found in Sri Lanka’s hill country.
These are used to make casts and as refractory material because of their attributes
of strength and high plasticity. Brick clay is found in most river valleys and is
commonly used in the production of bricks and tiles. Quartz, ball clay, silica and
feldspar are utilised in Ceramics and Glass industries with great success; the
country's porcelain is ranked among the best in the world.
This means that not only roof tiles are the products that use clay as a raw material
but also include many other products such as ceramics, pottery, bricks, etc. Thus
although Sri Lanka is rich in clay the consumption would be to all such industries.
Therefore, the exploiting of clay would rise with increasing demand alongside an
increasing population. This would result in running out of clay in the future. Hence,
alternative products for clay tiles would be a remedy. However, most Sri Lankans by
tradition prefer clay tiles since it is cheap and prevents heating within the house.
This would also become an issue to be considered in the future.
B. What is the environmental impact when extracting from the ground and
availability of the alternative materials?
Producing clay tiles involves exploiting clay from the crust where cement is only added in a
percentage. The excavations can go very deep, or could be done by cutting off small mounds
of land. This requires a huge production of clay tiles with sudden high demand. In the latter,
it can cause natural disasters such as landslides in the future. Clay soil retains water,
minerals and even metals that the plants need for growth. Removing the top clay layers will
cause damage to these environments as well. Since all soils cannot be used for tile
production, the country will very soon run out of clay to produce the tiles, alongside the
demand of bricks. The availability of alternative materials would be mainly concrete and
wooden roofs which are not recommended for Sri Lankan roofs due to heavy rains.

2. What is the carbon foot print of the other alternative materials?
If the alternative would release CO2 due to degradation this would cause environmental
issues. Thus, Carbon increase would occur if the replacement is made inclusive of Carbon.
The degradation or weathering of the final product and burning will release greenhouse
gasses giving rise to global warming which will cause issues to the Paris Agreement that Sri
Lanka is also a part of, which is a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average
temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, the supplement should
have a longer durability and retain from emitting greenhouse or toxic gases due to
degradation.
3. What is the energy consumption for the production of alternatives?

All roof tile products would need energy consumption. Especially if the product is synthetic
it would need special laboratory conditions in the production process which would have to
consume more energy as fuel for production as well as for heating and cooling as well. Thus,
the energy consumption would be very high or rather increase from the current amount due
to introduction of the alternatives.
4. What is the impact on end users? What are the social changes people at different
levels of society have to undergo? (If there is a ban people will be forced to buy
higher priced products which tend to be heavier and therefore necessitate more
expensive buildings materials).
Definitely the poor society or rural villagers will face a serious threat in this case. Since they
receive their salaries on a daily basis they would face difficulties. Hence, this would cause a
class culture where the rich use the alternatives which are expensive since they can afford it
and the poor cannot and have to find cheaper products. Thus, the alternatives have to be
affordable to avoid such social issues. Definitely the people who cannot afford to buy the
alternatives would show behavioural changes.

ANNEX B – NATIONAL HOUSING POLICY

National Housing Policy Sri Lanka
The basic objectives connected with the goal of the national housing policy are as follows,
- Qualitative and quantitative improvement of national housing stock and directing state and
private sector institutions to meet the annual housing demand.
- Securing the right to live in a house.
- Strengthening the asset base of the people through housing development processes and
alleviating poverty.
- Stressing the fact in the society that the right of a house is something that one should earn
through his own efforts.
- Propagating the people centered partnerships housing development approaches.
- Adopting community based participatory methodologies to the maximum level at housing

development.
- Strengthening the network of institutions contributing to housing development and

introducing a coordinating mechanism for the integrated actions.
- Adhere in the involuntary resettlement policies in providing alternative accommodations for

affected communities.
- Contributing to make the grass root level economic development process more efficient and
widening the opportunities for rural folk adequately improving financial supply for housing.
- Introducing efficient financial tools by public and private sector financial institutions and
maintaining the financial supply for housing at optimal level.
- Introducing attractive mechanisms that will inspire local and foreign investments in housing
and promoting public private partnership projects.
- Providing equal and equitable opportunities to all stakeholders in housing and encouraging
the private sector.
- Identify safer lands and incorporating hazard resilient housing design and construction that
can reduce the impact of climate change and with stand natural disasters by increasing
resilience of the society
- Minimizing restrictions and legal constrains within the land market for residential use.
- Encouraging vertical housing development in urban areas with adequate common amenities.

- Expansion of condominium property market systematically and promoting participatory
condominium management methodologies.
- Increasing the supply in rental housing market.
- Revising housing standards, planning and building regulations to suit the existing and future
housing needs, energy savings and hazard resilient.
- Encouraging the utilization of environmental–friendly, hazard resilient and energy saving,

appropriate housing technologies.
- Promoting adequate affordable and sustainable infrastructure facilities for housing.
- Introducing new legislations and tax systems for the supply of building materials at
affordable prices and discouraging the use of hazardous building materials and technologies.
- Encouraging public private partnership for continuous improvement of knowledge and skills
of all craftsmen in the housing construction sector.
- Providing government contribution for promoting all research and training activities in the
housing sector
The following trust areas and strategic policy guidelines have been identified and developed
within the existing wide range of housing issues to be addressed collectively and to help
understand the range of meeting points between different sectors involved.
1. Poverty groups.
2. Informal income earners.
3. Middle class.
4. High income groups.
5. Rental housing.
6. Urban land development, private investments and planning and management of
condominium properties.
7. Integrated infrastructure and service provision.
8. Housing technology, standardization of building materials supply and training.
9. Housing finance

Poverty Groups
Primary reasons such as poverty, social environment and lack of resources and proper
educational background have kept these groups which are an integral part of the society
away from mainstream housing. Slum and shanty dwellers, underserved communities,
squatters, poor families at rural level as well as the disabled, women-headed households,
estate community, fisher folks and other vulnerable groups belong to this category. The
government should directly intervene for fulfilling their housing needs and build up their
asset base, enabling the housing and financing institutions to have trust on them and also
the economic and social uplift of these communities.
Strategic policy guidelines
- Continuing the social housing programs by the government with special focus on
vulnerable groups of the society.
- Introducing and strengthening livelihood opportunities along with service delivery in

order to empower these communities socially and economically.
- Establishment of a national housing fund to build capacities and strengthening

community based organizations to promote community participation in housing
development and guiding poor communities on decision making processes at grass
root level.
- The families who are able to build their own houses to be directly assisted by way of
regularizing the land, providing basic amenities and releasing housing assistance on
concessionary interest rates with necessary technical guidance.
- Within a wider framework that guarantees medium and long-term sustainability of

the housing sector, allocating state lands and introducing affordable alternative
housing development approaches in order to meet the housing needs of the poor
communities.
- Encouraging the state and private financial institutions for introducing alternative
housing funds and concessionary financial supply systems.
- Encouraging charity organizations and individuals for providing housing facilities to

these communities as a social welfare measure.

- Introducing tax concessions to encourage financially viable private sector institutions
to invest a part of their profit share in the development of housing and settlement
for these underprivileged communities.
- Encouraging local government bodies to charge a levy on a percentage for the

additional area than the specified square area of the private house to be constructed
in the process of granting planning approvals and credit it to a revolving fund and
invest it in housing for poverty groups.
The National Housing Development Authority established in 1979 with the aim of
implementing housing development as a national program have launched rural housing
schemes targeting low income communities and as well as large scale housing schemes with
the support of the local and foreign private sector construction entities.
There are many issues and challenges in the housing sector at present. The basic issues and
challenges that need special attention are listed below.
- Lack of a housing policy based on a distinct and well defined strategic approach.
- Lack of focus on housing industry as a catalyst for local economic development.
- Insufficient attention to disaster resilient housing construction and risk mitigation
market based instruments.
- Relatively low level of investments by both the government and the private sector in
the field of housing which is a fundamental factor in social and economic
development.
- Limited funds for housing by financial institutions, traditional guarantees, securities
and high interest rates as well as housing loans and financial facilities being targeted
for high middle income earners.
- Provision of housing loans not being adequately considered as criteria of measuring
effectiveness of state and private sector financial institutions.
- Structural inefficiencies in the property market.
- Land prices, supply and legal, administrative and cultural issues in land utilization
and title clearance.
Lack of national physical policy and need for a sustainable settlement, based on plans for
land utilization and management is not being emphasized in the society.
- Issues associated with social and physical infrastructure.

- Dearth of skilled workers and shortcomings in the building materials sector.
- Insufficient attention on appropriate technology and techniques, training, quality
control and research.

- Problems and issues related to financial and administrative regulations faced by
investors and property developers associated with the housing development.
- Issues in planning management and maintenance of the condominium properties.
- Inadequate supply of affordable rental housing.
- In sufficient attention for housing issues of public servants and working classes.
- Issues and challengers faced in involuntary resettlement.
- Less focus on integrated planning approach and development in housing among the
state sector institutions and other stakeholders.
- Lack of emphasis on the approaches of participatory methodologies, capacity
building and empowerment in housing development for low income communities.
- Lack of focus for need of a proper mechanism that promote the participation of
community organizations, communities and the other stakeholders.
- Lack of attention in attitudinal changes on community based, settlement orientation,
self-help and enabling market in housing.
Informal Income Earners
A significant segment of Sri Lanka’s housing needs is for upgrading, extending or renovating
of their existing houses. The informal income earners most of them are in rural and semi
urban areas have been marginalized from the formal housing market owing to their inability
to declare a fixed income and obstacles they face in offering guarantees. Migrant workers
who contribute a higher percentage to the national economy are a leading group in this
category.
Strategic Policy Guidelines
- Adopting a common policy of providing financial and technical assistance at national

level for this social layer under the patronage of the government.
- Introducing and strengthening financial systems and technical mechanism that
promote the community based housing programs ensuring capacity and recognition
of households.
- Exploring the possibilities of alternative financial solutions for housing by
strengthening the existing people based organizations and formation of new ones.
- Strengthening the capacities of the grass root level community based organizations
such as housing cooperatives in technical and administrative aspects and allocating
government lands for housing.

- Introduction / strengthen mechanisms to bridge gap between the formal banking
sectors and the informal community banking for credit enhancement for poor
housing finance such as guaranty mechanism.
- Introducing innovative credit systems and enhancing the financial strength of the
housing development agencies which are promoting and practicing the construction
of houses using affordable and cost effective appropriate technology.
- Central government to intervene and ensue the release of commercial and state
bank bulk loans to the housing agencies such as National Housing Development
Authority in order to grant housing loans for needy families having repayment
capacities but considered as non- bankable. Strategic Policy Guidelines 12 15
- Disposing of government lands at a reasonable and affordable price for specific
housing purposes. Priority to be given for special groups such as migrant workers.
- Releasing government lands on a priority basis for the establishment of planned
human settlements with proper infrastructure facilities and encouraging the private
sector to invest for affordable housing projects in strategic locations of such areas.
- Making the existing procedures more efficient and if necessary formulating new legal
framework for transferring the private ownership of state lands given on lease in
order to encourage housing construction.
Housing Finance
The effectiveness of the overall housing policy is dependent on the strategic approach on
which the financing for housing development is based upon. Similarly, the field of housing
construction is a unique sector which is having a multiplying development effect in the
general economic performance of the country. Hence it is advisable to consider the total
amount allocated for housing development as a criterion of the overall socio-economic
development of the country. At the same time, the criteria relevant for financing can also be
considered qualitatively and quantitatively as yardstick in fulfilling corporate social
responsibility of public and private sector financial institutions.
- Making people aware through the Central Bank reports of the amount of funds
released as housing loans and housing construction project loans as a percentage of
the total loan portfolio of every public and private financial institution and the
interest rate charged for such loans.
- Using the amount of funding allocated for housing loans by financial institutions (a
percentage out of the total fund) as a criterion of fulfilling the general corporate
responsibility of such institutions.

- Recognising that providing housing loans by the state agencies such as the National
Housing Development Authority for a various social groups who neither have
opportunity nor capacity of obtaining loans on conditions imposed by state and
private financial institutes operated on commercial criteria as a national strategy of
bridging a gap in the housing loan market.
- Releasing a specific amount of bulk loan funds annually by the Central Bank and
state commercial banks to the state housing agencies such as the National Housing
Development Authority for providing housing loans to cater to the needs of social
groups who are not served by commercial financial institutions and issuing loans on
concessionary terms only for the targeted groups.
- Granting permission to the housing agencies such as National Housing Development

Authority for raising funds through public debenture issues and secures necessary
financial management assistance.
- Releasing financial assistance for the housing beneficiaries considering their social
and economic back ground base on a common policy.
- Allocating a specific financial provision from the national budget to grant housing
loans under concessionary interest rates to deserving social groups.
- Accepting collective personal guarantee in granting housing loans and introducing
community based participatory financial management system to promote the loan
repayment culture.
- Propagating and regulating the housing financing systems of community micro
finance organizations and cooperative societies.
- Establishing a revolving fund by the local authorities and other state agencies for
housing development.
- Inclusion of “housing development” as criteria to release funds from the “investment
fund” established though tax concessions and incentives in state and commercial
banks.
- Receiving foreign funds through the government for housing the poor.
Source: National Housing Policy Ministry of Construction, Engineering Services, housing and
common amenities
http://www.iuc.or.kr/board/pds/board/64/files/bdc036b89390345b4203c41331cf89ee

ANNEX C – Methodology

Greater Colombo housing and approved buildings
No. of approved houses Total no.of

Year Approved buildings
<1000 sq. ft. 1000-2000 sq.ft >2000 sq. ft. approved houses
2010 1297 3890 4427 9,614 1,107
2011 1284 4228 5157 10,669 1,515
2012 1358 4296 5616 11,270 1,425
2013 1190 4083 5562 10,835 1,422
Includes 4 Municipal Councils (Colombo, Dehiwala-Mount Lavinia, Sri Jayewardenepura and

Moratuwa), 6 Urban Councils (Wattala, Peliyagoda, Panadura, Horana, Kesbewa and Maharagama)
and 9 Pradeshiya Sabhas (Homagama, Kotikawatta-Mulleriyawa, Kaduwela, Kelaniya, Attanagalla,
Wattala-Mabole, Horana, Panadura and Mahara).
Calculate the cost of new approved buildings that use Chrysotile roofs (2013)
1) According to the above data we first calculate the total sq.ft area of new
approved houses. It is calculated as follows,
Total ft2 of approved houses = ∑ ) )

)
)
2) After that we calculate the estimated ft2 of a house as follows,
3) In here we take 50 percentage of average square foot of a house is

approximately equal to average sq.ft. of a roof .The Chrysotile roofing
material is 34.6 per cent.
4) By the market price of a sq.ft Chrysotile find the total cost of Chrysotile for
new approved houses as follows,

5) Then find the total cost of Chrysotile for approved building as above method.
After that calculate the total annual cost of Chrysotile in Greater Colombo
Total annual cost (for all buildings) =Total cost of approved houses +Total
cost of approved buildings units
6) Considering the greater Colombo population find the total annual cost in Sri
Lanka.
Calculate the cost / value of total stock of Chrysotile roofs (2013)

The latest Census data indicates that an estimated 42 per cent of all roofs in Sri
Lanka use Chrysotile material which totals 1,800,077.We found the estimated
average size of a dwelling. According to that we calculated the total estimated value
of total stock.
Usage of Chrysotile
Percentage of households using Chrysotile

Year No. of households Inventory
1955 5,675 0%
1965 1,307 1%
1981 284,913 11%
1994 517,711 15%
2001 1,016,299 26%
2012 1,799,795 35%
- Scatter plot.
- Fitted plot
- Fitted plot

- Normal probability plot of the Residuals
A normal probability plot of the residuals can be used to check whether the variance
is normally distributed as well. If the resulting plot is approximately linear, we
proceed assuming that the error terms are normally distributed.

- The regression equation is
1. No. of households = - 8.26E+10 + 1.26E+08 Year - 64477 Year**2 + 10.97

Year**3
2. Percentage = - 1203 + 0.6137 Year
Pearson correlation S R-sq R-sq (adj)

1 No. of households vs. year 0.948 92503.7 99.3% 98.2%
2 Percentage of using Chrysotile vs. Year 0.968 3.89130 93.7% 92.1%
 Pearson correlation coefficient: The Pearson correlation coefficient measures the

strength between variables and relationship. The coefficient value can range
between -1.00 and 1.00. If the coefficient value is in the negative range, then that
means the relationship between the variables is negatively correlated. If the value is
in the positive range, then that means the relationship between the variables is
positively correlated.
 S: This is an estimate of , the estimated standard deviation about the regression

line.
 R-Sq: This is R2, also called the coefficient of determination. Note that R2
=Correlation (Y, Y ) 2. Also, R2 = (SS Regression) / (SS Total).The R2 value is the
proportion of variability in the Y variable accounted for by the predictors. R-squared
is a statistical measure of how close the data are to the fitted regression line. R-
squared is always between 0 and 100%.
 R-Sq(adj): This is R2 adjusted for degrees of freedom. If a variable is added to an

Equation, R2 will almost always get larger even if the added variable is of no real
value. To compensate for this, MINITAB also prints R-Sq (adj), which is an
approximately unbiased estimate of the population R2 that is calculated by the
formula
)
)
)

ANNEX D – Stakeholder Agencies

Table 8.2 Summary of Environmental Impact – Feedback from experts
1.Urban The UDA was established by an Act of parliament

Development Authority bearing No 41 of 1978 with a view to promote
integrated Planning and implementation of Economic
social and physical development of the areas declared
Persons met- Mr. by the Minister in-charge of the subject of Urban
Dhananjaya development. Accordingly UDA has been empowered
Siriwardena ,email to function as the key urban planning and
address:dsiriwardena@g implementing agency of the country.
mail.com
2.National Housing Their mission is to implement as planned the

Development Authority "Janasevana- Mahinda Chintana" housing programme
Person met: Mr. H.M with the participation of all stake holders.
Dayananda; email
address;dayananda2012
@yahoo.com
3.Fibre Cement Products The FCPMA which overlooks and governs the quality
Manufacturers and safe production of Chrysotile roofing sheets in Sri
Association(FCPMA) Lanka acts as the Research and Development hub for
Rhino Roofing Products(ltd) ,Sri Ramco (Pvt) Limited,
Contact person: Mr. Built Elements(Pvt) Limited( Elephant Masconite),and
Anton Edema, email Sigiri Roofings (Pvt) Ltd who are the leading
address: info@fcpma.lk manufacturers of Chrysotile Roofing Sheets in the
/antonedema@sltnet.lk island.
4.Rhino Roofing Products Manufacturing & Marketing of Roofing & Allied
Contact person : Mr. Products.
Jeyaseelan
Gnanam,email address
md@rhino.lk
5. Built element ltd Built element ltd. was established on 28th of
November They are producers of roofing and ceiling
Contact person: Mr. sheets and other accessories for roofing.
Gamini
Nanayakkarawasm,email
address:production@buil
telement.com,ashuboda
@gmail.com

6.Amano Group of Amano is one of the Premier Engineering Companies
Companies in Sri Lanka, with two Companies under one wing.
They are Amano lanka engineering (Pvt.) Limited
Contact person: Mr. and Amano constructions (Pvt.) Limited. The Amano
Sarath De Costa, email legacy began with the pioneering of the color bonded
address: amano@slt.lk (Aluminium / Zinc) Alloy Coated Roofing and Cladding
,projectc@sltnet.lk industry in Sri Lanka. From its humble beginnings in
the 1980’s Amano has now grown to become a
household name.
7.Sri Ramco Lanka Pvt Ramco Fibre Cement Roofing Accessories are made
Ltd to match the contours of Ramco Roofing Sheets.
Roofing Accessories are fitted to roofing sheets with
Contact person: Rudolph the help of fixing accessories like hooks, bolts, nuts
TG, email address; and screws.
rtg@ril.co.in
8.Sigiri Roofings (Pvt Ltd)

Sigiri roofings (pvt ltd) was incorporated in Sri Lanka
by Mr. S.A Bhimaraja A technocrat based in Chennai
Contact person: S. India with a plan to manufacture fibre cement roofing
Kanakaraja, email sheet,flat sheets and accessories in Sri Lanka and
address:sigiriroofing@g established the factory at Tharawilluwa, Bathuluoya
mail.com in Puttalam District.
9.Major Constructors of Major Constructors of Sri Lanka (MCSL) is an
Sri Lanka association formed by the leading construction
companies of Sri Lanka.
Major Players felt the need of having an exclusive
association for themselves as vision , mission, goals
and objectives are very different from the small and
medium sector construction companies. Founding
member companies are the construction giants who
do more than 80% of the construction work done by
Contact person: Brigadier local companies and also almost half of mega projects
Madura; done by overseas constructors as partners or
msc.ncasl@gmail.com, subcontractors.
majorconstructorsofsrila
nka@gmail.com,
info@majorconstructors.
org
10.The Ministry of The Ministry of Housing and Construction is the

Housing and central government ministry of Sri Lanka responsible
Construction for housing and construction.

Contact person: Mr
Ailapperuma,email
address;
ailapperuma@sltnet.lk
11.The Chamber of Their mission is to be the exclusive voice for the
Construction Industry Sri Construction Industry, Sri Lanka to provide a safe,
Lanka (CCI) high quality, sustainable and eco-friendly Built
Contact person: Mr. Environment.
Kapila, email address:
kapila@ccisrilanka.org
12.Plantation Human The PHDT is a Tripartite Organization consisting of the
Development Trust Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL), Regional Plantation
Companies (RPCs) and Plantation Trade Unions (TU)
Contact persons: Mr. formed by the GOSL to implement social
Subramaniam Segar, development programmes to enhance the quality of
email address: life of the one million Plantation Community in the
segar@phdt.lk Estates managed by the RPCs.
The PHDT functions under a Board of Directors
Mr. Ajith Abeysekara, comprised of representatives from the GOSL, RPCs
email address, and TUs spearheaded by the Director General who is
de@phdt.lk supported by Internal Directors, Heads of Divisions,
Management and the staff attached to the Main
Office in Battaramulla.
13.Chrysotile The Chrysotile Information Center (CIC) is a non-profit
Information Center organisation established to provide scientific
information, public education and assistance in
Contact person: Mr. Sunil relation to the responsible and safe use of chrysotile.
Amarawansa,email
address
sunila.cic@gmail.com
14.United Nations UNIDO is the specialized agency of the United Nations

Industrial Development that promotes industrial development for poverty
Organisation reduction, inclusive globalization and environmental
Contact person: Nawaz sustainability.
Rajbdeen, email address:
unido.nawaz@gmail.com
,nawaz_rajabdeen@hot
mail.com
15.The Industrial The Industrial Technology Institute is a wholly owned
Technology Institute institute of the Government of Sri Lanka and
Contact person H.M functions under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of
Theja Herath, email Technology & Research.

address: theja@iti.lk
16.Central Environment The Central Environmental Authority (CEA) was

Authority established on 12th August 1981, under the provision
of the National Environmental Act No:47 of 1980. The
Ministry of Environment which was established in
Contact person:Mr. Tissa December 2001 has the overall responsibility in the
Gamage,email address affairs of the CEA with the objective of integrating
tissa@cea.lk environmental considerations into the development
process of the country. The CEA was given wider
regulatory powers under the National Environment
(Amendment) Acts No:56 of 1988 and No:53 of 2000.
17. Sri Lanka Institute of SLINTEC specializes in Nanotechnology research &
Nano Technology development to make innovative products and add
value to natural resources. SLINTEC currently focuses
Contact person Ms. on five primary research areas, namely Agriculture,
Ameena Zacky Apparel, Water purification, Healthcare and Mineral
: email address resources. SLINTEC’s R&D is by no means limited to
ameenaz@slintec.lk these research areas as can be seen from our project
portfolio that ranges from innovative rubber products
and advanced surface coatings to ceramics and
packaging.
18.Geological Survey and Their mission of the GSMB is to provide geoscientific
Mines Bureau information, advice and services to the policy makers
Contact person Dr. and the community and to promote and manage the
C.H.E.R.Siriwardana, mineral resources of the country for economic
email address, development while ensuring environmental
ddgeology@gsmb.gov.lk sustainability. It regulates exploration, extraction,
value addition, transportation and trading of
minerals.
19.University of To be the leading Knowledge Enterprise for
Moratuwa technological and related disciplines in South Asia by:
- Providing transformative education in
Name: Profesor Asoka technological and related disciplines which
Perera,email: nurtures the inquiring mind and develops
asoka.uom@gmail.com knowledge and skills for facing global
challenges;
- Carrying out nationally relevant and high-

impact research to expand the boundaries of
knowledge and to enhance the national

technological capabilities;
- Providing expert services to the State,

Industry and the Society as an Internationally
positioned Sri Lankan University; and
- Contributing to sustainable, scientific,

technological, social and economic
development of Sri Lanka
20. University of Sri To create and disseminate knowledge for the

Jayewardenepura prosperity of the nation, drawing inspiration from our
Name of the person: Mr. cultural heritage
J Edirisinghe
21.National Engineering To engage in research and development activities
Research and that would have a direct bearing on the industrial
Development Centre of development of Sri Lanka and on the improvement of
Sri Lanka the living standards of the people, and thereby
develop technologies that would help in the
Name of the person:Dr sustainable utilization of her human and material
Young resources towards the economic development of the
young@nerdc.lk country.
22.National Building NBRO is the national focal point for all landslide
Research Organisation related studies and services in Sri Lanka. NBRO’s
expertise extends a wide range of disciplines such as
environmental science, human settlement planning,
Name of the person: Ms. engineering project management, geotechnical
S. Muthurathne,email engineering, and building materials engineering.
address
nbro.bmd@gmail.com
23.Ministry of Health Their mission is to contribute to social and economic

Name of the person: Dr. development of Sri Lanka by achieving the highest
S R U Wimalarathne attainable health status through promotive,
preventive, curative and rehabilitative services of
high quality made available and accessible to people
of Sri Lanka
24.Ministry of Education Their mission is to develop competent citizens
Name of contact keeping with the global trends through innovative
person:Dr. Renuka Peiris, and modern approaches to education leading to
email address efficiency, equity and high quality performance

renukacha@gmail.com, ensuring stakeholder satisfaction
renukacha2002@yahoo.c
om
25. Chamber of Be the exclusive voice for the Construction Industry,

Construction Industry Sri Lanka to provide a safe, high quality, sustainable
Name of the contact and eco-friendly Built Environment
person Mr. Kapila
Liyanaarachchi,email
address
kapila@ccisrilanka.org

ANNEX E – LITERATURE REVIEW

1. Central Bank Annual Report 2014
http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/10_pub/_docs/efr/annual_report/AR2014/Engli
sh/content.htm
2. Census of population and housing 2012
http://www.statistics.gov.lk/pophousat/cph2011/pages/activities/reports/cph_2012
_5per_rpt.pdf
3. Socio economic data 2015 – Central Bank Sri Lanka
http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/10_pub/_docs/statistics/other/Socio_Econ_Dat
a_2015_e.pdf
4. Embassy of Sri Lanka Paris.France
http://www.srilankaembassy.fr/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&
amp;id=132&Itemid=113&lang=en
5. Trading economics; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/imports
6. Export Development Board (EDB), Sri Lanka;
http://www.srilankabusiness.com/pdf/Russia.pdf
7. Sri Lanka Business;http://www.srilankabusiness.com/pdf/brazilmarketprofile.pdf
8. Sri Lanka Embassy Paris. France;
http://www.srilankaembassy.fr/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&
amp;id=133&Itemid=114&lang=en
9. Source;Ministry of External Affairs India website; http://mea.gov.in/sri-lanka- in.htm
10. Source: http://www.saarc-sec.org/userfiles/saftaagreement.pdf
11. Source:Sri Lanka Brief August 2015;
http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/SrilankaBrief_August2015.pdf
12. Source : WTO
http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/WSDBCountryPFView.aspx?Language=E&Co
untry=LK
13. Source: Encyclo. Co. UK ;http://www.encyclo.co.uk/meaning-of- Negative%20list
14. Source: WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement;
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/20y_e/wto_tradefacilitation_e.pdf
15. Source: Tea Market
Update;file://C:/Users/RIU1/Downloads/Fourth%20Quarter%202015.pdf
16. Source: Lanka Business online; http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/sri-lanka-
tourist-arrivals-up-24-3-pct-in-jan-2016/
17. Source: Iba secretariat ;
http://ibasecretariat.org/cop6_side_event_kazakhstan_2013.pdf
18. Source: http://www.chrysotile.com/data/inde_janvier2011_en.pdf
19. Source:Claims and Litigation Management Alliance 2016 CLM Atlanta Conference
May 19-20, 2016 Atlanta, GA

20. Source: International Asbestos Ban
Secretariat;http://www.asbestosnetwork.com/blog/2015/09/what-countries-have-
banned-asbestos-use.shtml
21. Source:https://www.parliament.lk/uploads/documents/paperspresented/annual_re
port_national_housing_development_authority_2011.pdf
22. Source: RIU Real Estate Report 2016 REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN A GREEN
ENVIRONMENT; http://riunit.lk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/50-51.pdf
23. MIT Technology Review Helping Buildings in Egypt Consume Less
Energy;http://technologyreview.me/en/energy/helping-buildings-in-egypt-
consumer-less-energy/
24. Euroblawg How asbestos compensation litigation varies across the world
by ATRIUMLEGAL on FEBRUARY 26, 2013;http://www.euroblawg.com/legal/how-
asbestos-compensation-litigation-varies-across-the-world/
25. Alibaba.com; https://www.alibaba.com/countrysearch/EG/prefabricated-roof-
systems-supplier.html
26. International Ban Asbestos Secretariat;
http://ibasecretariat.org/lka_algeria_non_to_asbestos.php
27. Requirements For The Transport and Disposal of Asbestos Contaminated
Wastes,Access Canberra
28. Comparative Analysis of the Life Cycle of AT Fibre-cement and NT Fibre-cement Final
Report May 2004; Rui Frazão Rui Fernandes Scientific Supervision: Doctor Constança
Peneda; http://www.chrysotile.com/data/26826_EN_INETI.pdf
29. Alternatives vs Substitutes by Matt Hopkins Matt Hopkins on June 6, 2012;
http://matthopkins.com/business/alternatives-vs-substitutes/
30. Economic Impact of the Proposed Ban on Chrysotile in Thailand: Case of Chrysotile
Roofing Tiles; Ing Wei Huang
31. Programme for Asbestos Abatement in Poland 2009-2032;Warsaw, 2010,Ministry of
Economy; https://www.mr.gov.pl/media/15225/PROGRAM_ENG.pdf
32. Supplement To The New York State Energy Conservation Construction Code;
Published by the New York State Department of State Publication Date: November,
2014
33. International Energy Conservation Code, Commercial Energy Efficiency 2012
34. The Socio Economic Impact of Phasing Out Asbestos in South Africa, Appendices to
the Final Report; November 2002; http://new.nedlac.org.za/wp-
content/uploads/2014/10/Asbestos_November2002.pdf
35. Reconciling private profitability and social costs: the case of clay mining in Sri Lanka,
Dr. Malik Ranasinghe, 17 Feb 2012
36. Issues to be considered for an environmental, economic and social assessment of
green roofs by a life cycle approach point of view, Giorgia Peri 1, 2,*, Marzia
Traverso2 , Matthias Finkbeiner 2, Gianfranco Rizzo
37. Heat Transfer Through of Roofs of Low Cost Brazilian Houses, Robert Lamberts

38. Managing asbestos in or on soil March 2014,NSW Government;
https://www.workcover.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/18324/asbestos-
in-soil-guide-1253.pdf
39. Asbestos Transport And Disposal ,Industrial Waste Resource Guidelines;
http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/~/media/Publications/IWRG611%201.pdf
40. Memo on Chrysotile in Thailand; Chrysotile Information Centre, October 2015
41. Chrysotile in Sri Lanka ,A Fact based Approach to Regulation, Chrysotile Industry
42. Trial Lawyers Inc. A Report on the Asbestos Litigation Industry 2008 Center For Legal
Policy at the Manhattan Institute; http://gloog.us/wordpress/wp-
content/uploads/2014/04/Trial-Lawyers-asbestos.pdf
43. Costs estimation of the asbestos ban in Poland, Krakow(Poland)June 2014;
http://chrysotileassociation.com/data/cost_estimation_poland.pdf
44. Chrysotile Asbestos, World Health Organisation,2014;
http://www.who.int/ipcs/assessment/public_health/chrysotile_asbestos_summary.
pdf
45. Chrysotile and the environment, Chrysotile Institute 1999- 2004
46. Asbestos Litigation Costs and Compensation, An Interim Report, RAND Institute for
Civil Justice,2002;
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG162.pd
f
47. Technical note for Conserving Roofs, Department of Environment and Heritage
Protection; http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/assets/documents/land/heritage/technical-
note-roofing.pdf

RIU Chrysotile Cement Roofing Economic - Final Draft-53

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

RIU Chrysotile Cement Roofing Economic - Final Draft-53

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

SOCIO – ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE POTENTIAL PROHIBITION OF CHRYSOTILE

IN SRI LANKA – COST EVALUATION

1. Objective of the socio-economic evaluation ...................................................................... 5

Annex A - Summary of Environmental Impact Feedback from Experts

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 1

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 2

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 3

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 4

Specifically, the objectives of the study are to address the:-

- Direct economic costs

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 6

2.2 Information quality

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 7

2.4 In-depth interviews, surveys and data modelling

● Household survey: A sample of 100 households in the districts of Jaffna, Kandy,

● One-on-one meetings with industry stakeholders, associations, business and

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 8

3.1 Country overview

Key Economic Indicators

The Human factor

3.2 The Western Province Contribution to National Economy

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 10

Despite the impressive progress in Sri Lanka’s macro-economic environment, an important

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 11

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 12

4.1 The construction industry approach

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 14

Value of construction industry (2015) =US$ 7.985 billion

Chart 4.1 Fluctuation of prices of construction inputs reflected by Indices

4.2 New housing approvals approach

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 15

Chart 4.3 Building approvals in greater Colombo 2003 - 2013

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 16

Chart 4.5 Breakdown of building approvals in greater Colombo 2002 - 2012

- Total number of approved other building units (2013) = 1422

- TOTAL ANNUAL COST (FOR ALL BUILDINGS) = LKR 896,902,945

Population of Greater Colombo (20.07 % of total) = 4,207,876

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 18

Total number of households with Chrysotile : 1,800,077

Total number of other building units with Chrysotile : 180,008

TOTAL ESTIMATED VALUE OF TOTAL STOCK : LKR 395,374,002,689

4.3.1 Value of existing capital investment

4.3.2 New investment for production of alternative roofing materials

4.3.3 Loss of income and profits in the industry

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 20

Chart 4.7 TOTAL FIBRE IMPORTS FROM 2000 to 2016

2000 22,574,922 N/A

2001 23,394,941 N/A

2002 24,140,636 N/A

2003 23,284,995 N/A

2004 33,816,710 N/A

2005 35,911,931 N/A

2006 39,444,687 N/A

2007 46,104,990 N/A

2008 58,113,000 31,426,032

2009 39,378,792 13,781,205

2010 47,875,292 29,089,988

2011 60,979,129 40,228,635

2012 64,385,051 44,037,829

2013 40,977,558 25,228,012

2014 51,340,000 38,807,247

RESEARCH INTELLIGENCE UNIT – WWW.RIUNIT.COM 21