Energy Economic

Dr. Musa Partahi Marbun ST, MT.

Energy Economic
Pendahuluan
Dr. Musa Partahi Marbun ST, MT.
 Sekilas Prinsip Ekonomi Sederhana
Keseimbangan Supply & Demand
Keseimbangan Pasokan & Kebutuhan

Supply / Demand /
Pasokan Kebutuhan

Saat seimbang tidak ada permasalahan ekonomi

Musa Partahi Marbun
 Sekilas Prinsip Ekonomi Sederhana
Demand atau Kebutuhan berlebih?

Supply /
Pasokan
Demand /
Kebutuhan

Harga menjadi lebih tinggi !!

Musa Partahi Marbun
 Sekilas Prinsip Ekonomi Sederhana
Supply atau Pasokan berkurang, demand atau kebutuhan tetap?

Supply /
Pasokan
Demand /
Kebutuhan

Harga menjadi lebih tinggi !!

Musa Partahi Marbun
 Sekilas Prinsip Ekonomi Sederhana
Supply atau Pasokan tidak stabil?

Supply /
Pasokan
Demand /
Kebutuhan

Harga menjadi tidak stabil, pada suatu waktu mahal

Musa Partahi Marbun
 Sekilas Prinsip Ekonomi Sederhana
Supply atau Pasokan berlebih?

Demand /
Kebutuhan
Supply /
Pasokan

Harga menjadi lebih rendah…. Apakah demikian?

Musa Partahi Marbun
 Definisi
Energy economics is the field that studies human utilization of energy resources and energy
commodities and the consequences of that utilization. In physical science terminology, “energy” is
the capacity for doing work, e.g., lifting, accelerating, or heating material. In economic terminology,
“energy” includes all energy commodities and energy resources, commodities or resources that
embody significant amounts of physical energy and thus offer the ability to perform work. Energy
commodities - e.g., gasoline, diesel fuel, natural gas, propane, coal, or electricity – can be used to
provide energy services for human activities, such as lighting, space heating, water heating, cooking,
motive power, electronic activity. Energy resources - e.g., crude oil, natural gas, coal, biomass, hydro,
uranium, wind, sunlight, or geothermal deposits – can be harvested to produce energy commodities.

Energy economics studies forces that lead economic agents – firms, individuals, governments – to
supply energy resources, to convert those resources into other useful energy forms, to transport
them to the users, to use them, and to dispose of the residuals. It studies roles of alternative market
and regulatory structures on these activities, economic distributional impacts, and environmental
consequences. It studies economically efficient provision and use of energy commodities and
resources and factors that lead away from economic efficiency.

Source: Economics of Energy by James L. Sweeney

Musa Partahi Marbun

 Definisi Energi
1. Konversi Energi
2. Kebutuhan akan Energi berasal dari Kebutuhan itu Sendiri
3. Demand Substitution Among Energy Commodities
4. Is Energy an Essential Good?
5. Optimality of Consumer Choice
6. Depletable, Storable Renewable, Non-storable Renewable Resources
7. Depletable Resource Economics and the Transition to Renewable Resources
8. World Oil Prices
9. Energy Conversion Industries
10.Environmental Consequences of Energy Use

Musa Partahi Marbun

 Definisi Energi Listrik
1. Pricing Power, Energy, & Capacity
2. Power Supply & Demand
3. Apa itu Kompetisi?
4. Marginal Cost in a Power Market

Musa Partahi Marbun

 Sifat – Sifat Sumber Energi
Other than all embodying significant amounts of physical energy, energy resources or commodities
vary greatly. They may embody chemical energy (e.g., oil, natural gas, coal, biomass), mechanical
energy (e.g., wind, falling water), thermal energy (geothermal deposits), radiation (sunlight, infrared
radiation), electrical energy (electricity), or the potential to create energy through nuclear reactions
(uranium, plutonium.)

They have differing physical forms. Crude oil, most refined petroleum
products, and water are liquids. Of water includes available energy only through its motion. Coal,
most biomass, and uranium are solids. Natural gas and wind are in gases, with wind including
available energy based only on its movement. Geothermal energy is available through hot liquids
(normally water) or solids (subterranean rock formations). Solar radiation is a pure form of energy.
Electricity consists of electrons moving under an electrical potential.

Source: Economics of Energy by James L. Sweeney

Musa Partahi Marbun

 Perkenalan
Sejarah Ke-Tenaga-Listrik-an
→To make it work → agar bisa bekerja (1880 – 1920)
→To make it big and affordable (1920 – 1990)
→Besar → efisiensi tinggi
→Terjangkau → digunakan masyarakat luas

→To make it sustainable, market based, and still affordable (1990 – now)
→Kepastian → harga/biaya tetap
→Tersedia di pasar → economic of scale
→Tetap terjangkau → tetap digunakan masyarakat luas

Musa Partahi Marbun

Likely 30-Year Energy Future
• Hydrocarbons will continue to dominate transportation (high energy density)
• Conventional crude / heavy oils / biofuels / CTL and GTL ensure continuity of supply at reasonable
cost
• Vehicle efficiency can be at least doubled (hybrids, plug-in hybrids, HCCI, diesel)
• local pollution controllable at cost; CO2 emissions now ~20% of the total
• Hydrogen in vehicles is a long way off, if it’s there at all
• No production method simultaneously satisfies economy, security, emissions
• Technical and economic barriers to distribution / on-board storage / fuel cells
• Benefits are largely realizable by plausible evolution of existing technologies

• Coal (security) and gas (cleanliness) will continue to dominate heat and power
• Capture and storage (H2 power) practiced if CO2 concern is to be addressed
• Nuclear (energy security, CO2) will be a fixed, if not growing, fraction of the mix
• Renewables will find some application but will remain a small fraction of the total
• Advanced solar a wildcard

• Demand reduction will happen where economically effective or via policy

• CO2 emissions (and concentrations) continue to rise absent dramatic global action
Resource Supplies: Doom or Boom?
• Population increased from 1 to 7 billion
• Standard of living is 12 times higher
• Consumption of resources is much higher

Population Growth
• Thomas Malthus (1798) predictions
• Replacement rate
• Total fertility rate
• Modernization
• Death rates fall
• Fertility rate falls below replacement rate
Resource Consumption Per Person
• Increasing commodity demand
• Population growth
• Rising consumption per person
• Commodity supply has risen faster
than demand
• Commodity prices are falling
Resource Consumption Per Person
• Will resource supplies be
sustainable in the future?
• Prospects are hopeful
• Demand for resources will
reach a peak and decline with
falling birthrates
• Resource consumption per
capita leveled off or is
decreasing

LO1
Resource Consumption Per Person
• Leveled off in the
developed countries
• Demand will increase
in growing countries
• Challenge is to move
resource supplies from
their place of origin to
places of need

LO1
Energy Economics

LO2
Efficient Electricity Use
• The Challenge: Highly
Variable Demand
• Variations in fixed
costs
• Daily variations in
demand
• Different types of
generation
technology

LO2
Running Out of Energy?
• No likelihood of running
out of energy
• Running out of cheap
energy
• Multiple sources of
supply
• Environmental impacts
Sources: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, www.cera.com; The Economist, April 22, 2006,
www.economist.com.

LO3
Natural Resource Economics
• Policies for extracting resources to maximize net benefits
• Present vs. future consumption
• Present value
• Renewables vs. Nonrenewables
• Renewable natural resources
• Nonrenewable natural resources
• Optimal Resource Management
• Extraction strategy to maximize stream of profits
• User cost
• Sell today, cannot sell in the future
• Higher expected demand encourages less extraction today
• Property rights
 Natural Resource Economics
TC = EC +
UC

EC
Dollars

B A
P

U
C

0 Q2 Q1 Q0
First-year quantity
extracted
 Masa Depan Ekonomi Energi

Pertumbuhan Tantangan Sisi

Kebutuhan Energi Pasokan

Teknologi
& Regulasi

Kepastian Sisi
Dampak
Pasokan
Lingkungan
(Sustainability)
Musa Partahi Marbun
TERIMA KASIH

Dr. Musa Partahi Marbun ST, MT.