“SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT”

Prof. Damiano Milanato

Exercise “Autocaffè”
The company Autocaffè is the italian leader in catering Ho.Re.Ca. Food Services. In
table 1 there are historical data about coffee sales (values expressed in kg) in the
italian network of restaurants on years 2017, 2018, 2019 on a monthly basis.

gen feb Mar apr mag giu lug ago set ott nov dic
2017 48.361 45.039 52.290 57.198 54.806 52.333 57.146 65.431 59.901 58.304 50.602 53.870
2018 51.992 47.444 54.674 60.545 57.103 56.216 60.314 71.064 63.463 59.463 51.301 52.732
2019 52.228 48.701 56.060 60.083 59.066 57.040 63.935 74.342 64.178 61.059 54.229 55.054

Table 1 – Historical series of coffee sales (kg)

a) Calculate forecasting plan for 12 months on 2020 using the multiplicative

Time Series Decomposition model.
b) Applying the Holt-Winters multiplicative model, using the following values of
smoothing coefficients alfa=0,1 ; beta=0,5 ; gamma=0,1, answer to the
following questions:
c1) calculate initial values of mean, trend and seasonality components, using
the sales data of 2017-2018, using the “analytical method”;
c2) calculate forecasting for 2019 year, updating the forecast every month
using actual sales data which are available month after month (forecasting
formula with m = 1);
c3) calculate the forecasting error measurs using: ME, MAD, MAPE with
respect to the forecast you calculated for the 12 historical months of 2019;
c4) calculate forecasting plan for the future months of january, february,
march 2020.