MEE 1015

Total Quality Management & Reliability

Dr.S.Thiagarajan
Professor, SMEC
VIT University
Mail id: thiagarajan.s@vit.ac.in
Ph: 9944357451
 Reliability
• Reliability Function

• Reliability is defined as the probability that a system (component) will function

over some time period 𝒕
• Define the continuous random variable 𝑻to be the time to failure of the system
(component); 𝑻 ≥ 𝟎
• Reliability is then expressed as
• 𝑹 𝒕 = 𝑷𝒓 𝑻 ≥ 𝒕 , where 𝑹 𝒕 ≥ 𝟎, 𝑹 𝟎 = 𝟏, 𝒍𝒊𝒎 𝑹 𝒕 = 𝟎
𝒕→∞

• For a given value of 𝒕, 𝑹(𝒕) is the probability that the time to failure is greater than
or equal to 𝒕
 Reliability

• If we define 𝑭 𝒕 = 𝟏 − 𝑹 𝒕 = 𝑷𝒓(𝑻 < 𝒕),

where 𝑭 𝟎 = 𝟎 and 𝒍𝒊𝒎 𝑭 𝒕 = 𝟏
𝒕→∞

then 𝑭 𝒕 is the probability that a failure occurs before time 𝒕

• 𝑹 𝒕 is referred to as the reliability function and 𝑭 𝒕 as the cumulative distribution
function (CDF) of the failure distribution
𝒅𝑭(𝒕) 𝒅𝑹(𝒕)
• A third function, defined by 𝒇 𝒕 = =− , is called the probability density
𝒅𝒕 𝒅𝒕
function (PDF)
• This function describes the shape of the failure distribution
 Reliability
(a) Reliability function
(b) Cumulative distribution function
(c) Probability density function

• The pdf, 𝒇(𝒕), has two properties

∞
𝒇(𝒕)=0 and 𝟎
𝒇 𝒕 𝒅𝒕 = 𝟏
• Given the pdf, 𝒇(𝒕), then
𝒕
𝑭 𝒕 = 𝟎
𝒇 𝝉 𝒅𝝉 and
∞
𝑹 𝒕 = 𝒕
𝒇 𝝉 𝒅𝝉
 Reliability

• In other words, both the reliability function and the CDF represent areas under the
curve defined by 𝒇(𝒕)
• Therefore, since the area beneath the entire curve is equal to one, both the reliability
and the failure probability will be defined so that
𝟎 ≤ 𝑹(𝒕) ≤ 𝟏 and 𝟎 ≤ 𝑭(𝒕) ≤ 𝟏
• The function 𝑹(𝒕)is normally used when reliabilities are computed, and the function
𝑭(𝒕)is normally used when failure probabilities are being computed
 Reliability
•
• Example 1

• Given the following PDF for the random variable 𝑻, the time (in operating hours)
to failure for a compressor, what is its reliability for a 100-hr operating life?
𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏
𝒕≥𝟎
𝒇 𝒕 = 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝒕+𝟏 𝟐
𝟎 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆
• Solution
∞ 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏 −𝟏 ∞ 𝟏
′
𝑹 𝒕 = ′
𝒕 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝒕 +𝟏 𝟐 𝒅𝒕 = ′ =
𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝒕 +𝟏 𝒕 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝒕+𝟏
𝟏 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝒕
and 𝑭 𝒕 = 𝟏 − 𝑹 𝒕 = 𝟏−
𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝒕+𝟏
=
𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝒕+𝟏
𝟏
Then 𝑹 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎.𝟏+𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟎𝟗
 Reliability
• Design Life

• A design life is defined to be the time to failure that corresponds to a specified

reliability
• To find the design life if a reliability of 0.95 is desired, then set
𝟏
𝑹 𝒕 = = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓
𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟏𝒕+𝟏
𝟏
• Solving for 𝒕, we get 𝒕 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 − 𝟏 = 𝟓𝟐. 𝟔 𝒉𝒓
𝟎.𝟗𝟓

• The probability of a failure occurring within some interval time 𝒂, 𝒃 may be

found using
𝒃
𝑷𝒓 𝒂 ≤ 𝑻 ≤ 𝒃 = 𝑭 𝒃 − 𝑭 𝒂 = 𝑹 𝒂 − 𝑹 𝒃 = 𝒇 𝒕 𝒅𝒕
𝒂
𝟏 𝟏
𝑷𝒓 𝟏𝟎 ≤ 𝑻 ≤ 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝑹 𝒂 − 𝑹 𝒃 = − = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟏
𝟎. 𝟎𝟏 + 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟏 + 𝟏
 Reliability
• MTTF
• Mean Time To Failure
• The mean time to failure (MTTF) is defined by
∞
MTTF = 𝑬 𝑻 = 𝟎
𝒕𝒇 𝒕 𝒅𝒕
which is the mean, or expected value, of the probability distribution defined by
𝒇(𝒕)
∞
• It can also be shown that MTTF = 𝟎
𝑹𝒕)𝒅𝒕
• Another measure is the median time to failure, defined by
𝑹 𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒅 = 𝟎. 𝟓 = 𝑷𝒓 𝑻 ≥ 𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒅
• The median may be preferred to the mean when the distribution is highly skewed
• The mode, or most likely observed failure time, is defined by
𝒇 𝒕𝒎𝒐𝒅𝒆 = 𝒎𝒂𝒙 𝒇(𝒕)
𝟎≤𝒕≤∞
 Reliability

Mode, Median , and MTTF

 Reliability
• Example 2
• Consider the probability density function
−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕
𝒇 𝒕 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒆 𝒕 ≥𝟎; with 𝒕 in hours
𝟎 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆
∞
• Then, 𝑹 𝒕 = 𝒕
𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕 𝒅𝒕 = 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕
∞
∞ −𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕 𝟏
• and MTTF = 𝟎
𝒆 𝒅𝒕 = = = 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝒉𝒓
−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐 𝟎 𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐

• Median time to failure

Set 𝑹 𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒅 = 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒅 = 𝟎. 𝟓
𝒍𝒏𝟎.𝟓
Solving for 𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒅 , 𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒅 = −𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐 = 𝟑𝟒𝟔. 𝟔 𝒉𝒓
• Mode: The function 𝒇(𝒕) is monotonically decreasing and positive
Maximum value occurs at 𝒕 = 𝟎, and 𝒕𝒎𝒐𝒅𝒆 = 𝟎
 Reliability
• Example 3

• Even if two reliability functions have the same mean, their reliabilities may be quite
different for the same operating time
• For example, let 𝑹𝟏 𝒕 = 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕 𝒕 ≥ 𝟎 with 𝑴𝑻𝑻𝑭𝟏 = 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝒉𝒓 and
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎−𝒕
𝑹𝟐 𝒕 = 𝟎 ≤ 𝒕 ≤ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝒕 𝒕𝟐
with 𝑴𝑻𝑻𝑭𝟐 = 𝟎
𝟏− 𝒅𝒕 = 𝒕 − = 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝒉𝒓
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟎

• Reliabilities for an operating time of 400 hr

𝑹𝟏 𝟒𝟎𝟎 = 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐(𝟒𝟎𝟎) = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒𝟗
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎−𝟒𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑹𝟐 𝟒𝟎𝟎 = = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
• Obviously, the MTTF alone will not uniquely characterize a failure distribution
• Other measures are necessary
 Reliability

• One measure that is often used to further describe a failure distribution is its
variance 𝝈𝟐 , defined by
∞
𝝈𝟐 = 𝟎
𝒕 − 𝑴𝑻𝑻𝑭 𝟐 𝒇 𝒕 𝒅𝒕
• The variance represents an average squared distance a failure time will be from
the MTTF
• It is a measure of the spread, or dispersion, of the failure times about the mean
• The variance can also be written as
∞ 𝟐
𝝈𝟐 = 𝟎
𝒕 𝒇 𝒕 𝒅𝒕 − 𝑴𝑻𝑻𝑭 𝟐
 Reliability
• Example 4

• The two reliability functions of the previous example are

𝑹𝟏 𝒕 = 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕 𝒕 ≥ 𝟎 with 𝑴𝑻𝑻𝑭𝟏 = 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝒉𝒓 and
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎−𝒕
𝑹𝟐 𝒕 = 𝟎 ≤ 𝒕 ≤ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝒕 𝒕𝟐
with 𝑴𝑻𝑻𝑭𝟐 = 𝟎
𝟏− 𝒅𝒕 = 𝒕 − = 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝒉𝒓
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟎

• And the corresponding probability density functions are

𝒇𝟏 𝒕 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕 , 𝒇𝟐 𝒕 = 𝟏/𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
• The variances and standard deviations are
∞ 𝟐
𝝈𝟐𝟏 = 𝟎
𝒕 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟐𝒕 𝒅𝒕 − 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝟐
= 𝟐, 𝟓𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎; 𝝈𝟏 = 𝟓𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟐 𝟏
𝝈𝟐𝟐 = 𝟎
𝒕 𝒅𝒕 − 𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝟐
= 𝟖𝟑, 𝟑𝟑𝟑. 𝟑𝟑; 𝝈𝟐 = 𝟐𝟖𝟖. 𝟔𝟕
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
 Reliability
• Example 4

• Therefore, although the MTTFs are identical, the standard deviations are
considerably different
• It can be concluded that the reliability distributions should be inherently
different
• The distribution having the smaller variance is generally preferred