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GSMA MobileEconomy 2020 AsiaPacific PDF
GSMA MobileEconomy 2020 AsiaPacific PDF
Mobile Economy
Asia Pacific
2020
Copyright © 2020 GSM Association
The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile
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Contents
Executive summary 2
Executive
Summary
The mobile industry is stepping up to the Covid-19 challenge
Although there have been many international supply- and demand-side economics. The
health crises before, the Covid-19 pandemic impact of Covid-19 on 5G growth will be
differs because of its scale and the worldwide greater in Asia Pacific since the region is
efforts being taken to address it. Despite the home to some of the first 5G networks,
telecoms industry’s best efforts to cushion compared to other regions where many
the impact, the outbreak will affect the markets have yet to launch 5G. As a result,
development of the mobile ecosystem: our revised forecasts show that the total
number of 5G connections will be almost
• The pandemic has highlighted the
20% lower in 2020 in Asia Pacific than
importance of a robust digital economy;
previously expected.
in less developed markets, the crisis has
exposed the weaknesses of low broadband • More positively, internet connectivity
penetration. Digitisation, which was is allowing people to continue working
already an important target, is therefore remotely. While working from home has
moving up the agenda for businesses and already been an option for office workers
governments alike, with many accelerating for some time, 5G can provide an enhanced
their timelines because of Covid-19. experience for virtual meetings and, of
course, higher network capacities, making
• Since 5G is at a crucial early stage and
it an important tool to help meet new
at the cusp of scaling across Asia Pacific,
traffic demands.
Covid-19 is clearly going to have an impact
on deployments and uptake, affecting both
2
Executive Summary
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
In the face of these challenges, the digital The outlook, therefore, is that the impact
ecosystem has proved vital in the response to of Covid-19 on the mobile industry will be
Covid-19. Participants from the entire digital temporary. It would appear that 5G will
value chain – including operators, vendors, experience a short-term dip rather than a
internet players and governments – are pulling long-term slump. However, the economic
together to ensure the most positive outcome impact could be longer term, so governments
possible. And as a side effect of the pandemic, should not raise taxes to offset the economic
mobile operators have been granted a unique slowdown, which could jeopardise the
opportunity with a boost in the adoption recovery of the industry and the digital
of mature/quality-based services e.g. video economy. As the world recovers from this
calling for business, online collaboration tools, crisis, wider connectivity and better networks
video streaming, e-commerce and mobile will become a priority for consumers,
payments. enterprises and governments.
5G is gathering pace across Asia Pacific: nine Meanwhile, in countries such as Bangladesh,
markets have launched commercial mobile India, Indonesia and Pakistan, the 5G
5G services – including Japan in March – and opportunity is longer term, largely because
12 more have officially announced plans to there is still a lot of room to grow for 4G
do so. This makes the region home to some (which is the dominant mobile technology
of the most advanced 5G markets in the across Asia Pacific and will remain so for the
world, with countries such as Australia, China, foreseeable future). It is unclear whether
Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea consumers in many of the region’s emerging
all aiming to be global leaders in 5G. These markets will pay more for a 5G service,
markets will see relatively rapid 5G growth, particularly when 4G will meet their needs
while across developed Asia as a whole 5G in the majority of cases. The focus for these
will account for just under half of total mobile markets is on getting 4G right and pushing
connections by 2025. advancements in areas such as identity,
digital commerce and payments, and cross-
To support this generational shift and drive
ecosystem collaboration to ensure 5G is
consumer engagement in the digital era,
launched at the right time under the right
mobile operators in Asia Pacific will invest
conditions to promote a sustainable and
over $400 billion in their networks between
competitive 5G mobile industry, which is the
2020 and 2025, of which $331 billion will be
foundation for an inclusive digital society.
spent on 5G deployments.
3
Executive Summary
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
At the end of 2019, 2.8 billion people in Development Goals (SDGs) and spurring
Asia Pacific subscribed to mobile services, adoption of mobile-based tools and solutions
accounting for 66% of the population. With (e.g. in agriculture, education and healthcare)
nearly 500 million new subscribers added that aim to improve livelihoods in low- to
since 2014, the region is one of the fastest middle-income countries and close the
growing in the world and home to over half gender gap.
of total global subscribers. While top-line
Mobile also continues to make a
growth is slowing, Asia Pacific will still
significant contribution to socioeconomic
account for around half of new subscribers
development across the region. In 2019,
globally by 2025: by this time, we forecast
mobile technologies and services in Asia
266 million new subscribers to be connected
Pacific generated $1.6 trillion of economic
across the region, bringing the total to just
value added (5.3% of GDP), with countries
over 3 billion (70% of the population).
increasingly benefiting from improvements
Meanwhile, the connectivity gap is closing. in productivity and efficiency brought about
Over the next six years, 663 million people by the increased take-up of mobile services.
across Asia Pacific will start using mobile The mobile ecosystem also supported around
internet for the first time, bringing the total 18 million jobs (directly and indirectly) and
number of mobile internet users in the made a substantial contribution to the
region to around 2.7 billion by 2025 (61% of funding of the public sector, with $180 billion
the population). This growth in connectivity raised through general taxation.
is helping the mobile industry increase its
impact across all of the UN’s Sustainable
4
Executive Summary
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
The current global health crisis has reinforced • Avoid inflating spectrum prices, as high
the need for mobile internet connectivity: it auction reserve prices limit network
enables citizens to stay informed, educated investment by operators and drive up the
and entertained; organisations to stay in cost of services.
business; and governments to provide
• Simplify and standardise planning
essential services. However, around 240
procedures and regulations for site
million people in Asia Pacific lack mobile
acquisition, colocation and upgrades of
internet coverage and a further 1.9 billion
base stations and small cells.
people live within the footprint of a mobile
broadband network but are not using mobile • Adopt policies that reduce costs in areas
internet. With the immense impact of the such as taxation, voluntary infrastructure
pandemic on economies and societies, there sharing and fees.
is a greater need for collaborative leadership There has never been a more relevant time for
than ever before. governments to implement policy measures
Cooperation between the mobile industry to stimulate demand for internet services and
and policymakers is vital to ensure long- address the barriers to internet use; this can
term digital resilience by improving mobile be achieved by improving the affordability
coverage and making the availability of of devices and services, increasing digital
digital services universal. There are a range of literacy and skills, and providing locally
actions that policymakers can take: relevant services. As governments decide
on economic support packages that will
• Assign sufficient amounts of mobile shape societies for decades to come, digital
spectrum to operators in a timely manner,
strategies should be prioritised.
particularly in the sub-1 GHz ‘coverage’
bands, which are ideal for affordable rural
coverage.
5
Executive Summary
Mobile Economy
Asia Pacific
UNIQUE MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS 2019 2025
2.8bn 3.0bn
2019-2025
CAGR: 1.5%
66% Penetration Rate
(% of population)
70%
2.0bn 2.7bn
Penetration Rate
2019-2025 48% (% of population) 61%
CAGR: 4.9%
2019 2025
4.3bn 4.8bn
SIM CONNECTIONS
Penetration Rate
2019-2025
103% (% of population) 109%
CAGR: 1.6%
OPERATOR REVENUES
AND INVESTMENT 2019 2025
$378bn $406bn
Operator capex of $414 billion for the period 2020-2025 (80% on 5G)
INTERNET OF THINGS 2019 2025
5.2bn 11.5bn
Total connections Total connections
67% 84%
% of total
connections
Excluding licensed
cellular IoT
1.1bn
4G 2019 2025 5G 2025
$180bn
Mobile ecosystem contribution to public funding
(before regulatory and spectrum fees)
2019
Asia Pacific
Connections1 Subscribers2
TECHNOLOGY MIX* CONNECTIONS PENETRATION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
“Leading
Leading
Nations”
Nations
programme3
Bangladesh TECHNOLOGY MIX* CONNECTIONS PENETRATION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
81%
74% 89% Connected to Usage Coverage
4G 3G mobile internet Gap Gap
1. Unique SIM cards (or phone numbers, where SIM cards are not used), excluding licensed cellular IoT, that a mobile network has registered during
the period of analysis. The number of subscribers differs from the number of connections because a unique user can have multiple connections.
8 2. Unique users who have used internet services on their mobile device during the period of analysis. We define mobile internet services as any
activity that consumes mobile data, excluding SMS, MMS (multimedia messaging service) and cellular voice calls.
Executive Summary 3. The GSMA Leading Nations engagement (comprising Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Pakistan) seeks to accelerate the growth of the digital
economy and advance the mobile industry’s sustainability by lobbying for regulatory modernisation with relevant stakeholders.
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
APAC 5G Forum4
Connections Subscribers
Australia TECHNOLOGY MIX* CONNECTIONS PENETRATION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION
20%
69% 8% 2025 126% 126% 80% 82%
2019 SMARTPHONE ADOPTION 2019 66% 29% 5%
23%
2019 2025 2025 72% 23% 5%
83% 87% Connected to Usage Coverage
4G 79% 3G mobile internet Gap Gap
4. GSMA APAC 5G Forum is a 5G industry engagement community platform to help operators and governments to collaborate, promote and foster the timely
deployment and rollout of commercial 5G networks and services (B2C, B2B, B2G) through the promotion of active sharing of knowledge, experiences and
know-how of best practices related to 5G technologies, commercial strategies and industry policies. 9
*% of total connections excluding licensed cellular IoT Executive Summary
Note: totals may not add up due to rounding
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
01
The mobile
market in
numbers
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
1.1
Over 250 million new subscribers by 2025
Source: GSMA Intelligence
Figure 1
Growth is becoming harder to see, but total subscribers will surpass 3 billion by 2025
Million
70%
66% Total (Asia Pacific) 3,043
2,776 33
30 163
161 504
457
1,089
925
1,203 1,253
Two thirds of the region’s population subscribe to mobile services; China and Northeast
Asia are the most advanced
% of population
Asia Pacific China Northeast Asia Oceania Southeast Asia South Asia
2019 2025 11
The mobile
market in numbers
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
1.2
5G starts to ramp up, while 4G dominates
Source: GSMA Intelligence
Figure 3
4G surpassed 60% of total connections in the region in 2019; 5G will overtake both 2G
and 3G in 2022
% of connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT)
80%
70% 65% 4G
60%
50%
40%
30%
23% 5G
20%
8% 3G
10%
4% 2G
0%
12
The mobile
market in numbers
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Nine markets in Asia Pacific have launched commercial mobile 5G services; 12 more have
officially announced plans to launch
Live 5G
Planned 5G
Asia Pacific is home to some of the most advanced 5G markets, with South Korea,
Australia, Japan and China leading the way
5G adoption in 2025 (% of total connections)
Global average
1.3
Increased connectivity for people and things
Source: GSMA Intelligence
Figure 6
Almost 700 million people across the region will start using mobile internet by 2025;
two thirds will be from China and India
Million
76 663
25 23
44
46
190
261
14
The mobile
market in numbers
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Asia Pacific will have the three largest smartphone markets by 2025, which
together will account for over 40% of global connections
Smartphones as a % of connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT)
84% 89%
83% 83% 82% 80%
72% 76%
67% 71% 67%
61%
Asia Pacific China Northeast Asia Southeast Asia Oceania South Asia
average
2019 2025
15
The mobile
market in numbers
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Over 6 billion new IoT connections in Asia Pacific by 2025, accounting for half of global
new additions – smart home and smart buildings are key growth verticals
Billion
Consumer Enterprise
0.8 11.5
0.4 0.2 0.1
0.6
0.6
1.6
0.2 0.3
0.6 0.1
0.8
5.2
2019
Smart home
Consumer electronics
Smart vehicles
Wearables
Consumer (others)
Smart buildings
Smart utilities
Smart manufacturing
Smart city
Smart retail
Smart health
Enterprise (others)
2025
Figure 9 Source: Ericsson, GSMA Intelligence
Mobile data consumption in Asia Pacific will grow more than threefold
by 2025, spurred by increased smartphone adoption and availability of
affordable high-speed networks
9.2
2019 3x 28.9 2025
16
The mobile
market in numbers
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
1.4
Financial outlook improving, but challenges remain
Source: GSMA Intelligence
Figure 10
Covid-19 will lead to a dip in revenues to $377 billion in 2020; 2021 will see a recovery,
followed by modest growth out to 2025
Mobile revenue (billion)
$390
3.6%
$394 $398 $402 $406
$378 $377
3.0%
-1.1%
-2.8%
Between 2020 and 2025, mobile operators in Asia Pacific will invest over $400 billion,
80% of which will be on 5G
Capex (billion) 2020-2025
spend
$72
$65 Total
$414bn
5G
Revenue
(annual, billion)
$28.0
$20.8
EBIT
(annual, billion)
$2.7
-$0.5
2016 2019 2016 2019
While financials are steadily improving, Indian The above factors could weaken the telecoms
operators are under financial stress due to low sector as a whole. Future network expansion and
average revenue per user (ARPU), substantial 5G plans could be put at risk, and there could be a
network investments, high spectrum costs and domino effect on the entire digital value chain. This
significant debt. This has been exacerbated by the is particularly pertinent as India looks to enter the
Supreme Court AGR judgment (24 October 2019), 5G era because a thriving mobile sector needs to
which ruled that the leading mobile operators must be in place to help drive the creation and delivery of
pay approximately INR920 billion ($12.09 billion) 5G products and services. The government should
towards licence fee and spectrum usage charges therefore seek to create an enabling environment
(plus interest, penalty and interest on penalty). for this to happen, encouraging operators to invest
The liability of some of the operators is significant, in the market and develop innovative services for
placing them in a precarious position – to repay the the 5G future.
huge amounts owed in such a short time is a major,
While subject to cyclical variation, falling investment
and potentially insurmountable, challenge.
levels (total operator capex declined by 22%
annually in the second half of 2019) are a further
indicator that the market is on an unsustainable
path and in need of rebalancing, including an
immediate implementation of the National Digital
18
Communications Policy 2018 (NDCP-18), if India is to
become a digital powerhouse.
The mobile
market in numbers
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
02
Key trends
shaping digital
societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Fearing the impact of Covid-19 on healthcare That said, the digital ecosystem has proved vital
systems and public wellbeing, governments across in the response to Covid-19. Participants from the
the globe have instated quarantines, travel bans and entire digital value chain – including operators,
lockdowns, among other measures. Although there vendors, internet players and governments – are
have been many international health crises before, pulling together to ensure the most positive
the Covid-19 pandemic differs because of its scale outcome possible. And as a side effect of the
and the worldwide efforts being taken to address it. pandemic, mobile operators have been granted a
unique opportunity with a boost in the adoption of
The Covid-19 outbreak has had wide-sweeping
mature/quality-based services e.g. video calling for
effects on all aspects of the economy due to falling
business, online collaboration tools, video streaming,
commodity prices, reductions in international
e-commerce and mobile payments. At the same
investment, decreased incoming remittances, rising
time, the situation has brought to attention
foreign debt burdens and a disproportionate impact
governments that have not taken the necessary
on the informal sector (especially important in
steps to establish an inclusive digital economy.
Asia Pacific). Undoubtedly, the outbreak will affect
the development of the mobile ecosystem as well,
despite the industry’s best efforts to cushion the
impact.
2.1
Digitisation moves up the agenda for businesses and governments
Across Asia Pacific, and indeed around the operating across the entire value chain, should take
world, the Covid-19 outbreak has highlighted the this as an opportunity to strengthen their role as key
importance of a robust digital economy. In less ICT partners to enterprises. But timelines will vary:
developed markets, the crisis has exposed the some enterprise customers will escalate their ICT
weaknesses of low broadband penetration. investments immediately, while others will have to
balance addressing the short-term crisis with long-
Digitisation, which was already an important target,
term opportunities.
is therefore moving up the agenda for businesses
and governments alike, with many accelerating For operators, decisions on network transformation
their timelines because of Covid-19. A range of strategies are more important than ever. Near-term
businesses, particularly those in retail, transport, challenges, such as spiking data usage, coupled with
logistics, manufacturing and healthcare, are looking longer-term commercialisation of 5G, are driving
to potentially increase their investment in digital operators to introduce innovations such as virtual
transformation to cope with the impact of the RAN, edge networking, network automation and
pandemic and build a stronger position for the security enhancements into their networks.
future. Vendors of ICT solutions, especially those
20
Key trends
shaping digital societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Supporting new customers and network architectures are top priorities for RAN
investments, while backhaul and virtualisation upgrades are crucial for the core network
RAN Core
21
Key trends
shaping digital societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
2.2
Initial response to the pandemic
As Asia Pacific and the rest of the world adjust • Connecting emergency services – In a global
to the new norms of daily life, the importance health emergency, connecting health centres and
of connectivity has never been more apparent. hospitals is a top priority, as it enables services
Operators are keenly focused on ensuring such as remote diagnostics and telemedicine.
connectivity to keep people connected to their It is expected that regulations may be relaxed
family and friends, work places, and sources of in some markets so that operators can ensure
health and emergency information. the prioritisation of connectivity for emergency
services.
Mobile operators are reaching out to customers and
working with governments to provide a range of • Helping with financial hardship – Operators are
vital services at this challenging time. They are also offering a range of solutions to those suddenly
exploring how to leverage their big data capabilities facing financial problems: these include flexible
to help monitor and limit the spread of Covid-19. payment options, the lifting or extending of data
caps to enable increased usage, and free public
Work is being done in several key areas:
Wi-Fi. A number of operators in developing
• Maintaining network stability – Networks markets have introduced zero rating of mobile
will inevitably feel the strain from the surge in money transaction charges and the expansion of
online activities, especially because of the large transaction and mobile account limits.
number of people suddenly working from home.
• Facilitating remote working – In addition to a
Operators are investing in added capacity (or
secure connection, many workers need additional
reconfiguring capacity profiles as loads move to
tools and support in order to work from home.
domestic areas) to ensure their networks remain
Operators are providing productivity tools, such
robust and secure. In some markets, such as New
as free conference-calling software and training
Zealand, networks are being given temporary
plans, to support home working. And many
access to additional spectrum.
are providing or enabling access to additional
• Disseminating vital information – The ability content and services for children at home too,
to keep citizens up to date with the latest advice often for free.
and prevent the spread of disinformation is
• Leveraging the power of mobile big data – The
of paramount importance in fast-developing
use of mobile big data analytics and AI has a key
situations. As such, operators are working with
role to play in monitoring and containing disease
governments to deliver timely information
outbreaks. There are several projects currently
directly to mobile devices.
underway that involve operators working with
national authorities to use aggregated and
anonymised movement data to anticipate the
spread of Covid-19.
22
Key trends
shaping digital societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
5. “Govt drawing on big data analytics to contain pandemic”, The Daily Star, March 2020
23
Key trends
shaping digital societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
6. “Telecom operators in India warn people of coronavirus outbreak, share tips”, TechCrunch March 2020
7. “Telcos get on board government’s Prihatin Rakyat initiative”, New Straits Times, March 2020
24
Key trends
shaping digital societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
25
8. “Koreans know where it was, helping contain coronavirus outbreak”, The Economic Times, March 2020
9. “Coronavirus: How South Korea ‘crushed’ the curve”, BBC, May 2020 Key trends
shaping digital societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
2.3
Impact on 5G rollout
Since 5G is at a crucial early stage and at the cusp of The consequence of this has already been seen
scaling across Asia Pacific, Covid-19 is clearly going in China, where iPhone sales in February 2020
to have an impact on deployments and uptake, dropped to 490,000 (down from 1.27 million in
affecting both supply and demand-side economics. the previous year). The reopening of stores in
the Chinese market will reignite some interest,
• Supply: signs of normality returning
but the huge decline is a sign of what may be
China seems to be past the worst of the to come for markets at earlier stages of the
outbreak, with China Unicom and China Telecom crisis. It seems likely, therefore, that the Covid-19
planning to reach their target of 250,000 5G pandemic will slow sales of the first 5G iPhone,
base stations in Q3 2020 – even earlier than which is expected to be released later in 2020.
originally planned. However, factory closures Meanwhile, in South Korea, first-day sales of
and pressure on the domestic workforce across Samsung’s latest 5G-enabled Galaxy S20 devices
Asia Pacific will take their toll on planned (launched in February) were around half that of
rollouts. In India, for example, the Department of its previous S10 series.12 A high asking price with
Telecommunications has delayed its 5G spectrum fewer subsidies/discounts could be one reason
auction, meaning the earliest possible date for for this – the entry-level S20 costs KRW1.248
5G rollout is likely to be 2021–22.10 million (over $1,000) – but a drop in the number
More positively, Japan managed to launch its of visitors to stores due to infection fears
mobile 5G service at the end of March 2020, certainly didn’t help.
while in Australia, Telstra has announced it has Taking these factors into account, our revised
reached over 50% 5G coverage across 40 Perth forecasts show that the total number of 5G
suburbs.11 connections will be almost 20% lower in 2020 in
• Demand: a heavy toll on consumer spending Asia Pacific than previously expected. This is a larger
reduction than the global average (-15%), mainly
Despite extreme government countermeasures, due to a downward revision of 22% in China, which
it is inevitable that disposable income for both has a significant regional impact given that the
consumers and enterprises will fall. According to country accounts for almost 90% of the region’s 5G
Ipsos, 56% and 40% of consumers in Japan and connections. The impact of Covid-19 on 5G growth
Australia respectively believe that the pandemic will also be greater in Asia Pacific since the region is
will have an impact on their personal finances. home to some of the first 5G networks, compared
Consumers are not going to stop using mobile to other regions where many markets have yet to
phones, but it may now be more difficult for launch 5G.
operators to persuade people to spend more on
services and devices to upgrade to 5G.
26
Key trends
shaping digital societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Covid-19 will result in 18% fewer 5G connections in Asia Pacific in 2020 than previously
expected
5G connections (million)
1,154
1,090
933
889
746
698
572
518
381
328
134 111
10 10
27
Key trends
shaping digital societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
13. “TM deploys 5G base stations at 2 Covid-19 quarantine centres”, New Straits Times, April 2020
14. “Cellcard announces Cambodia’s first 5G use case to help the Kingdom during Covid-19”, Cellcard, March 2020
28
Key trends
shaping digital societies:
Covid-19 focus
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
03
Mobile
contributing to
economic growth
and addressing
social challenges
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
3.1
Mobile contribution to economic growth
In 2019, mobile technologies and services generated almost 18 million jobs (directly and indirectly) and
5.3% of GDP across Asia Pacific – a contribution made a substantial contribution to the funding of
that amounted to over $1.6 trillion of economic the public sector, with $180 billion raised through
value added. The mobile ecosystem also supported general taxation.
The Asia Pacific mobile ecosystem generated just under $500 billion of economic value
in 2019, with mobile operators accounting for around half
Billion, % of 2019 GDP
$220
$130
0.7%
$80
0.4%
$25 $30 0.3%
0.1% 0.1%
30
Mobile contributing to
economic growth and
addressing social challenges
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Additional indirect and productivity benefits bring the total contribution of the mobile
industry to over $1.6 trillion
Billion, % of 2019 GDP
$960 $1,620
3.2%
MOBILE ECOSYSTEM
$170 5.3%
$270 0.5%
$220 0.9%
0.7%
The Asia Pacific mobile ecosystem directly and indirectly employs around 18 million
people
Jobs (million)
8.0 17.9
INDIRECT
1.4
1.9 DIRECT
1.7
0.5
Infrastructure Mobile Device Distributors Distributors Content,
providers operators manufacturers and retailers and retailers apps and
(formal) (informal) service
providers
Note: totals may not add up due to rounding
31
Mobile contributing to
economic growth and
addressing social challenges
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
In 2019, the Asia Pacific mobile ecosystem contributed $180 billion to the funding of the
public sector through general taxation
Billion
$40 $180
$35
$40
$65
Services VAT, sales Handset VAT, sales Corporate taxes Employment taxes Total
taxes and excise taxes, excise and on profits and social security
duties customs duties
3.2
Expanding the benefits of mobile internet
At the end of 2019, 2 billion people across Asia within the footprint of a network but do not use
Pacific were connected to the mobile internet, mobile internet (the ‘usage gap’), other barriers
representing an increase of 160 million compared are much more pressing, such as affordability,
to the previous year. However, roughly 2.2 billion consumer readiness (including gender equality) and
people remain offline. Given that mobile broadband availability of content/services.
networks (3G and above) cover 94% of the
Nevertheless, over the next few years, as these
region’s population, the ‘coverage gap’ is not the
enablers of mobile internet adoption continue to
main issue. This is reflected by the fact that Asia
improve, almost 660 million people across the
Pacific’s infrastructure score within the GSMA’s
region will start using mobile internet for the first
Mobile Connectivity Index improved significantly
time. By 2025, around 2.7 billion people in Asia
over the last year; the region achieved the largest
Pacific (61% of the population) will be mobile
regional increase in average index score between
internet subscribers.
2016 and 2018.15 For the 1.9 billion people who live
15. For more information see the GSMA report State of Mobile Internet Connectivity 2019 and the Mobile Connectivity Index website
32
Mobile contributing to
economic growth and
addressing social challenges
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Around 2.2 billion people across Asia Pacific don’t use mobile internet; for most,
coverage is not the issue
% of population (2019)
1% 1%
6% 0.2bn 5% 6% 8%
Out of MBB
coverage
33% 36% (‘coverage gap’)
36%
46% 1.9bn 43%
60%
Covered by
MBB but don’t
subscribe to the
mobile internet
66% (‘usage gap’)
63% 59%
48% 2.0bn 51%
33%
Mobile internet
subscribers
Source: GSMA
Figure 22
Asia Pacific is the most improved region in the Mobile Connectivity Index over the last
two years, primarily due to improved infrastructure; affordability in South Asia also
greatly improved
GSMA Mobile Connectivity Index scores
76 71
3
60 58
3
60 60
5 4 4 5
49
6
73
68
55 54 56 55
43
3.3
Digital inclusion is key, particularly in difficult times
As a result of lockdowns, many have turned to the million mobile subscribers in Asia Pacific already
internet to maintain a sense of community, access use a phone to improve their education or that
education or crisis information, and safeguard a of their children,16 the shift to online solutions for
limited level of economic activity. remote learning is leaving many behind. Some
governments have had to turn to non-interactive
However, billions of people are still unfamiliar with
technology, such as radio and television,
the internet or find themselves in a digital desert,
to provide a minimum level of educational
especially in low- and middle-income countries
continuity for those unable to use the internet.17
(LMICs), where many are struggling with the effects
of lockdown. This lack of internet use not only • The limited uptake of digital services in LMICs
excludes individuals from opportunities to overcome is preventing businesses from moving to
the social and economic limitations of self-isolation, e-commerce or other online platforms to
but also hinders the ability of governments maintain a level of continued consumption. It is
to effectively manage the pandemic and the also complicating the distribution of potential
associated economic fallout. financial support programmes, despite a recent
surge in uptake of mobile financial services.18
By extension, the limited use of mobile internet
services, particularly in South Asia and Southeast • The effective distribution of crisis
Asia, worsens the impact of lockdowns: communications largely depends on digital
channels and the capability of individuals to
• Following the closure of schools and other
discern trustworthy sources and advice apart
educational institutions, millions of students
from manipulated information, posing a challenge
now depend on remote learning. Although 630
for those who have not been online before.
3.4
Closing the mobile gender gap
Growth in mobile internet access has been There is, however, promising evidence that the
remarkable in Asia Pacific. However, although it is widest gender gaps are beginning to close. In South
the primary way most people access the internet in Asia, the mobile internet gender gap has narrowed
Asia Pacific, mobile access and use remain unequal, from 67% to 51% since 2017, bringing another 78
particularly across the region’s LMICs. In South Asia million women online. Much work remains to be
for example, women are still 23% less likely than done, but this highlights that mobile gender gaps
men to own a mobile phone and 51% less likely to can be reduced and the benefits of connectivity can
use the internet on a mobile: the largest mobile be distributed more equally.
gender gap in any part of the world.
16. 2019 Mobile Industry Impact Report: Sustainable Development Goals, GSMA, 2019
17. “How countries are using edtech (including online learning, radio, television, texting) to support access to remote learning during the Covid-19 pandemic”, World Bank
18. State of the Industry Report on Mobile Money 2019, GSMA, 2019
34
Mobile contributing to
economic growth and
addressing social challenges
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
South Asia has the biggest gender gap in mobile ownership and mobile internet use;
however, it has seen the largest gap reduction since 2017
9% 27%
Overall LMICs
8% 20%
27% 67%
South Asia
23% 51%
8% 20%
Middle East and
North Africa 9% 21%
-1% 6%
Europe and
Central Asia 5%
-1%
2% 6%
Latin America
and Caribbean 1% 1%
1% 5%
East Asia
and Pacific
1% 3%
2017 2019
Note: Low- and middle-income countries only. The gender gap in mobile ownership and mobile internet use refers to how much less likely a woman is to own a
mobile or to use mobile internet than a man.
35
Mobile contributing to
economic growth and
addressing social challenges
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
While changing market dynamics and price erosion of the GSMA Connected Women Commitment
have likely contributed to the reduction of the Initiative to reduce the gender gap in their mobile
mobile internet gender gap in South Asia, the internet customer base between 2015 and 2020.
mobile industry has also taken concerted action to This includes operators in the three largest markets
address the issue in the sub-region. 10 operators, in South Asia – India (Airtel India, Reliance Jio and
collectively representing 70% of mobile connections Vodafone Idea), Pakistan (Telenor Pakistan) and
in South Asia, made formal commitments as part Bangladesh (Grameenphone and Robi Axiata).
For more information, see the GSMA’s The Mobile Gender Gap Report 2020.
36
Mobile contributing to
economic growth and
addressing social challenges
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
04
Policies
for digital
advancement
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Social distancing measures have put the • Avoid inflating spectrum prices, as high
spotlight on mobile internet connectivity: it auction reserve prices limit network
enables citizens to stay informed, educated investment by operators and drive up the
and entertained; organisations to stay in cost of services.
business; and governments to provide
• Simplify and standardise planning
essential services. However, around 240
procedures and regulations for site
million people in Asia Pacific lack mobile
acquisition, colocation and upgrades of
internet coverage and a further 1.9 billion
base stations and small cells.
people live within the footprint of a mobile
broadband network but are not using mobile • Adopt policies that reduce costs in areas
internet. With the immense societal and such as taxation, voluntary infrastructure
economic impacts of the pandemic, there is a sharing and fees.
greater need for collaborative leadership than There has never been a more relevant time for
ever before. governments to implement policy measures
Working with stakeholders and governments, to stimulate demand for internet services and
operators have implemented a wide range address the barriers to internet use; this can
of measures to help mitigate the effects of be achieved by improving the affordability
the crisis and ensure business continuity. of devices and services, increasing digital
Cooperation between policymakers and literacy, and skills and providing locally
the mobile industry is vital to ensure long- relevant services.
term digital resilience by improving mobile In past global crises, governments used
coverage and making the availability of digital technologies such as radio and TV to
services universal. To expand the reach of communicate with their citizens. Now,
commercially sustainable, next-generation communication via smartphones is critical,
networks, there are a range of actions that so governments need to help people gain
policymakers in Asia Pacific can take: access to smartphones in order to make
• Assign sufficient amounts of mobile economies and societies more resilient.
spectrum to operators in a timely manner, Thus, as governments decide on economic
particularly the sub-1 GHz ‘coverage’ support packages that will shape societies for
bands, which can cover wide areas with a decades to come, digital strategies should be
small number of base stations making it prioritised.
ideal for affordable rural coverage.
38
Policies for digital
advancement
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Asia Pacific is leading the way in the rollout of sharing agreements, and harmonising power
5G. There has been much progress in 5G, but density limits.
further investments in network capabilities
5G’s role in the healthcare response to the
are required to establish the ubiquity,
pandemic, which utilised technologies such as
reliability, throughput and latency that will
telemedicine, remote ultrasound and thermal
unlock the full value of 5G. Governments
imaging, together with the benefits from the
in Asia Pacific have taken steps to foster
digitisation of supply chains/Industry 4.0
infrastructure investment in 5G, though more
in Asia Pacific, underscore the importance
can be done by making additional affordable
of the B2B segment. Policymakers will
spectrum available, facilitating access to site
need to provide regulatory flexibility for
locations, enabling small cell deployment,
B2B partnerships so that operators have
facilitating deployment of backhaul,
the freedom to innovate to realise 5G’s full
permitting the establishment of network
potential.
39
Policies for digital
advancement
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
There has never been a greater need for policy environment. Mobile phones and
governments to develop policies that foster other connected devices can then verify and
trust in the digital environment. Economies authenticate those identities while allowing
are increasingly relying on financial access to a variety of online transactions and
technology and digital financial services to services that support digital and financial
stay afloat, and demand for services such inclusion.
as mobile and digital payments, telework
These kind of systems will also be essential
platforms, food delivery and e-commerce
for managing the Covid-19 response going
have grown exponentially during this
forward. Integration of data to allow the
pandemic. In addition, trust is essential
real-time assessment of risk will be crucial.
for overcoming fake news and conspiracy
For example, TrustScan, a free smartphone-
theories, which spread particularly fast in
based service that captures and certifies
times of crisis. Data privacy frameworks
genuine Covid-19 test results, makes it simple
that protect citizens’ data, together with a
to confirm the Covid-19 status of places that
national digital identity system, can provide a
users seek to enter. Similarly, SafeEntry is a
foundation of trust.
digital check-in system that logs individuals’
Rules for the protection, management and entry into a venue and informs them whether
processing of consumers’ personal data vary there may be a confirmed Covid-19 case at
greatly by sector, technology and country. that location.
Governments in Asia Pacific must ensure
Several countries in Asia Pacific have
data privacy frameworks provide effective
launched innovation centres and regulatory
protection for individuals. At the same time,
sandboxes. Heavily regulated sectors of
these must allow organisations the freedom
finance, telecommunications and healthcare
to transfer data within and between countries
are ripe for experimentation. Governments
so that they can innovate and comply in a
in Asia Pacific should encourage creativity
way that makes sense for their businesses
while removing the regulatory risks of untried
and secures positive outcomes for society.
business models by enabling operators,
Without an identity, citizens cannot internet players and startups to develop new
participate in and reap the benefits of a products and services in a safe setting that
digital society. Governments in Asia Pacific would boost growth of the digital economy
should strive to establish digital identity across the region.
systems that are underpinned by an enabling
40
Policies for digital
advancement
The Mobile Economy Asia Pacific 2020
Intelligent connectivity – the combination Mobile operators can work together with
of 5G, AI, big data and IoT – is the key different government departments via a
component of services in the new digital era. whole-of-government approach (WGA) to
There is a huge opportunity for policymakers simplify or expedite the rollout of advanced
and the mobile ecosystem to work together digital services. Countries in Asia Pacific
to ensure that Asia Pacific economies can that have adopted a WGA are implementing
capture value, boost economic growth and cross-cutting policies that allow businesses
deliver benefits to society. to enter new or unrelated industries – for
example, mobile operators and internet
Siloed ICT sector regulation isn’t viable in the
players moving into payments, delivery of
current digital world and there is a need to
utility services and virtual banking without
adopt a more agile and flexible approach to
physical bank infrastructure, or banks moving
policymaking. The pandemic has provided
into healthcare.
the potential for governments in Asia Pacific
to pursue greater cross-sectoral collaboration In order to learn more about the importance
and develop interoperable regulatory of a WGA, the GSMA is conducting a
frameworks for digital-data governance, survey to create an understanding of how
e-commerce rules, taxation of digital services, policymakers, regulators and the mobile
cybersecurity, and innovative but ethical ecosystem are positioned to deliver Industry
usage of AI technology. 4.0 in selected countries in Asia Pacific. The
findings of this study will be published in the
GSMA Digital Societies report that will be
launched during GSMA Thrive APAC, our
virtual event produced in partnership with
Mobile 360 Digital Societies.
41
Policies for digital
advancement
gsma.com
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