Update on COVID-19 in

Canada: Epidemiology
and Modelling

January 15th, 2021

Canada.ca/coronavirus
 Sharp increase in daily COVID-19 case counts nationally, since late
December
Number of cases 7,900 cases on
average, past 7 days
10 000
9 000
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
01 Mar 01 Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01 Aug 01 Sep 01 Oct 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan
Reported cases 7-day moving average

Data as of January 12, 2021

Note: Less testing over the holiday period likely impacted daily case count, resulting in a brief decrease of the 7-day moving average 1
High incidence, especially in Quebec and Ontario, continues to drive rapid
growth

BC AB SK
40 40
35
40
35

30 30 30
25 25

20 20 20
15 15

10 10 10
5 5
0 0 0

Number of 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec
cases per
100 000
MB ON QC
population 40 40 40
35 35

30 30 30
25 25

20 20 20
15 15
10 10 10
5 5
0 0 0

01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec
Date of case report

Data as of January 12, 2021 2

 More health regions reporting higher rates of COVID-19 infection
Cases per 100,000 population (Dec 30 - Jan 12)
400 and higher 59 of 99 health regions
200 to 399 with > 100 cases per
100 to 199 100,000 population over
50 to 99 a 14-day period
15 to 49
>0 to 14
0

Note: Map only shows COVID-19 cases where

health region had been attributed in source data
Data sources: COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group.
Epidemiological Data from the COVID-19 Outbreak in Canada

Data as of January 12, 2021 3

Continued escalation of incidence among high-risk adults aged 80
years and older Incomplete data,
Number of reported cases due to reporting lag
per 100 000 population
(7-day moving average)
30

25

20
80+ years
15

10
20 to 39 years
5
80+ years
0
01 Jun 01 Jul 01 Aug 01 Sep 01 Oct 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan
Date of illness onset*
0 to 19 20 to 39 40 to 59 60 to 79 80+

Data as of January 12, 2021

*First available of illness onset, specimen collection, laboratory test date
4
Widespread community transmission and increased outbreaks in
long-term care facilities*
Number of outbreaks
400 **
350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
Mar
March Apr
April May
May Jun
June Jul
July Aug
August Sep
September Oct November
October Nov December
Dec

2-4 cases 5-9 cases 10-24 cases 25-49 cases 50-99 cases 100+ cases
Data as of January 12, 2021; by date outbreak first reported
Note: *Including retirement residences. Data for outbreaks occurring in January have been excluded. Data based on 5
publically reported information. **Underestimated due to reduced reporting in December.
Steady upward trend in hospitalizations in provinces with sustained
high infection rates
Number of cases in
hospitals per
100 000 population*
30

25

20

15

10

0
01 Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01 Aug 01 Sep 01 Oct 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan

AB BC MB ON QC SK

Data as of January 12, 2021

* 7-day moving average 6
 COVID-19 related deaths steadily rising and may soon exceed levels
seen during the first peak
Number of deaths 140 deaths daily on
average, past 7 days
250

200

150

100

50

0
01 Mar 01 Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01 Aug 01 Sep 01 Oct 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan
Reported deaths 7-day moving average

Data as of January 12, 2021 7

 Short-term forecast shows continuation of rapid growth
Cumulative cases predicted to January 24, 2021: Cumulative deaths predicted to January 24, 2021:
752,400 to 796,630 18,570 to 19,630
800 000 20 000

Cumulative number of deaths

Cumulative number of cases

750 000 19 000

700 000 18 000

650 000 17 000

600 000 16 000

550 000 15 000

500 000 14 000

25Dec 30Dec 04Jan 09Jan 14Jan 19Jan 24Jan 25Dec 30Dec 04Jan 09Jan 14Jan 19Jan 24Jan

Cumulatively reported cases in Canada by Jan. 9, 2021 Cases added since Jan. 9 when the prediction was made
Prediction to Jan. 24, 2021 Lower 95% prediction limit Upper 95% prediction limit

Extrapolation based on recent trends using a forecasting model (with ranges of uncertainty). Data as of January 12, 2021. 8
 Longer-range forecast shows, overall for Canada, we remain on a rapid
growth trajectory
30 000 If we maintain the current number
of people we contact each day –
the epidemic will continue to
resurge: Grey line

If we increase the current number

20 000 of people we contact each day –
the epidemic is forecast to resurge
Reported
faster and stronger: Orange line
cases
If we reduce the current number of
people we contact each day to
10 000 only essential activities through
combined individual precautions
and public health measures – the
epidemic is forecast to come under
control in most locations: Blue line
0
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Data as of January 12, 2021

Methods: Anderson SC et al. 2020. Estimating the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing. 9
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20070086v1
 Quick, strong and sustained measures are needed to interrupt rapid growth and
maintain COVID-19 control

Reported cases
per 1 million
population,
moving average

Data as of January 13, 2021 10

Upcoming months will be very challenging for Canada – we must redouble efforts
and hold firm to see our way through

• Reducing COVID-19 activity is urgently needed as rollout of

safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines begins
• protect those at highest risk of severe outcomes.
• protect critical healthcare and public health capacity from
being overwhelmed

• All Canadians asked to maintain public health practices and

follow public health advice, including to:
• limit outings and activities to just the essentials
• avoid all non-essential travel outside of Canada

11
Appendix

12
 Longer range forecast indicates that a stronger response is needed
now in several provinces to slow the spread of COVID-19
AB BC

MB ON

QC SK

Data as of January 21, 2021

Projected incidence for the next 3 months (blue line) with 50 and 95% credibility intervals (shaded areas). 13