INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

LIBYAN POLITICAL DYNAMICS

The Paper is intended as a Substitute for The Final Examination

Arranged by:

Muhammad Shakti Bintang Utama (20180510267)

Lecturer:

Dr. Sidik Jatmika, M.Si

INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

FACULTY OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCE

MUHAMMADIYAH UNIVERSITY OF YOGYAKARTA

2020
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A. Geographic Aspect
Picture 1.1 Libya Maps

Source: https://cdn.britannica.com/43/3043-050-DD347375/Libya-map-boundaries-cities-locator.jpg

Libya is country that located in the Africa continent, to be precise is in the North
Africa. Which the country is bounded by the Mediterranean Sea, surrounded by 6 countries
namely Egypt on the East, Sudan on the Southeast, Chad and Niger on the South, while
Algeria and Tunisia on the West. Libya has a land area 1,676,198 km surface area which, is
the fourth largest country in Africa, and the 17th largest in the world. The country of Libya
unites North Africa with the Middle East and with maritime claims on territorial sea 12 nmi
(22.2 km; 13.8 mi) and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) 351,589 km2. 1 Most of its
population is centered along the coast and its surrounding hinterland, where Tripoli is the
capitol (arābulus), the de facto capital, and another large city, Banghāzī (Benghazi), are
located. Across Libya, there are no major rivers. There are many large wadis drain the inner
basins of Sirte, Zelten and Fezzan. Numerous oases are nourished by wells and springs, and
artesian wells are provided by large deep mineral aquifers in Fezzan and south-eastern Libya;
the Great Man-Made River was one of the more ambitious schemes to make use of such
groundwater deposits.2 There are also many salt flats or sabkhas along the coastline that are
found at Tāwurghāʾ, at Zuwarah, and on the Benghazi Plain. It shaped by the ponding and
evaporation of the water behind the coastal dunes. And in Libya there are biggest wadi
1
Nevill Barbour. March, 26 2020. The Libyan Republic. Accessed on 26 March 2020.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Libya
2
Adrienne Ruth. May 27 2016. DANU Strategic Forecasting Group, Libya’s Geographic Makeup. Accessed on
26 March 2020. http://comprehedv.cluster011.ovh.net/thinktank/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Libya-Geography-
Adrienne-Finalized-05-24.pdf
 Page |2

systems are Wadi Zamzam and Wadi Bayy al-Kabīr, all of which are empty into the sea on
the western side of the Gulf of Sidra.

Libya is country that most of its area are covered with eroded sand or stony desert that
most of its soils in that areas are less organic material in other words are poorly developed.
However there are gray brown soils that fertile in Al-Jifarah Plain and Nafusah Plateau and
along the coastal deltas and valley of wadis found a rich alluvial soils. While on the eastern
libya exist a light and fertile soils strects across Akhdar Mountains and the sea. Libya climate
is dominated by the arid Sahara but it moderated along the coastal Mediterranean Sea, it even
hotter in the summer but in the along the coast, the mediterranean climate is known for by the
cool rainy winter season and a hot dry summer. The desert climate reach along the coastal
Gulf Sidra which Al-Hamrayah desert borders the sea, that causing yearly droughts in the
areas of steppe and desert. From October to March in Northern Libya, Wind from western
brings a cyclonic storms and rains. Most of the rain drops in a couple of days between
November and January. Throughout the Sahara, 200 continuous rainless days in a year have
been documented in many regions, and the highest degree of aridity in the world has been
recorded in Sabhā.3 The dry climate is worsened by ghibli, a hot arid wind coming from the
south through the country multiple times a year. It is normally accompanied by a brief lull in
the wind patterns, followed by a complete ghibli storm. The storm contains a significant
amount of sand particles, which makes the sky red and lowers visibility to less than 18 meter.
The heat of the wind is intensified by a sudden decrease in relative humidity, which can drop
considerably within hours.

B. Demographic Aspect

Population growth started to slow down between 2000 and 2006, the year of the last
census. Over this time, the population increased slightly from 5,125,519 to 5,324,000. 4 This
is due to the social changes, especially with the regard of gender equity that has managed to
reduce the birth rate. Social norms also started shifting at this time, and there was a marked
pattern toward smaller families, even though this pattern was mainly due as much too
economic hardship and severe housing shortages as to shifts in gender norms. Libya's

3
Nevill Barbour. March, 26 2020. The Libyan Republic. Accessed on March, 26 2020.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Libya
4
Almokhtar Attwairi. July 2017. The Contribution of Population growth to the Libyan Rapid Urbanization.
Accessed on March, 26 2020.
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population growth rate has been growing since 2015, but is projected to decline by 2020 at
this time of year Libya's population is around 6.871.292 with growth predicted to drop to
0.3% by 2050.5 While the rate of growth will fall, the population will continue to increase at a
more steady pace. Current projections believe that the population of Libya will be 7,342,346
in 2030, 7,825,251 in 2040, and 8,123,669 by the year 2050.

Picture 1.2 Population of Libya Charts

Source: Population censuses 1973, 1984, 1995, 2006

According to the World Factbook, majority people in Libya adheres to religion

Muslim (and most of muslmin is all Sunni) 96.6%, Christian 2.7%, Buddhist 0.3%, Hindu
<0.1, Jewish <0.1, folk religion <0.1, unafilliated 0.2%, other <0.1. 6 In Libya most of the
people used Arabic language as their official language, the government’s embrace of Arab
nationalism has reduced Western influences, although English is still widely used as a second
language in international business and politics and in major cities italian and english language
all widely understood in that specific area such as in economic business. In other hand some
people speak their ethnic language such Berber language (Nafusi, Ghadamis, Suknah,
Awjilah, Tamasheq). Libya population is included diverse ethnicity that scrumble in the
country that most of them is centered in the coast line and major cities, in Libya is dominated
by the arabs that lived among other minorities groups such as Berbers, Libyan Negroes,
Tuareg, Tebou and other minorities groups (Qulaughli, Italians, Jews, British, French,
Americans, Maltese, Greeks, Cretans, Duwwud (Daouda), Armenians and Germans).7

5
World Population Review. February, 18 2020. Libya. Accessed on March,26 2020.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/libya-population/
6
Central Intellegence Agent. 2009. The World Factbook. Accessed on March, 26 2020.
7
Louis Dupree. June, 19 2014. The Non-Arab Ethnic Groups of Libya. Accessed on March, 26 2020.
 Page |4

C. Leadership

Toward its independence libya was in the position of struggle for survival, luckily the
Cyrenaican leader namely Sayyid Idris had not hesitated to raise an army to fight alongside
the Allies in North Africa, despite British unwillingness to promise him eventual Libyan, or
even Cyrenaican, independence. The struggle for independence from Italy (In Cyrenaican) ,
British (In Tripolli) and France (In Fezzan) in different region eventually resulting an
outcome that helps libya got the independence. Since the italy lost in the World War II the
Cyrenaican region declare itself as an independence region that led the UN support the full
Libya independence through the allied administration from British and France that provide
the Libyan training civil service and etc to become a fully independence country. On 24
December 1951 Libya got its independence throught the support of the UN, Since El Sayyid
Prince Muhammad Idris bin Muhammad al-Mahdi as-Senussi is the leader of sanussi order
since 1917, Emir of Cyrenaica and one of the heroes from the resistance he rightfully become
the ruler to the new country of Libya and adopted a new name ‘Idris I’.8

Picture 1.3 Idris I

Source: https://face2faceafrica.com/article/idris-the-forgotten-libyan-king-overthrown-by-gaddafi.

From the early stages, the Libyan federal monarchy had a lot of vulnerabilities. King
Idris possessed wide constitutional privileges which have been frequently exploited in what
he perceived as his own needs and those of his foreign supporters. It had the authority to
dissolve the House of Representatives (or the lower house) or veto the legislation and it could
nominate half of the members of the Senate (the upper house). The Tripolitans saw the rise of
the Cyrenaica Sanussi as King as a major obstacle to political progress, and Idris ' actions
immediately reinforced their suspicions by doing an election. Libya's first general election
was held in February 1952, in which all political parties were disbanded and restricted. Many
8
Geoff Simons. 1996. Libya: The Struggle for Survival. Accessed on March, 26 2020
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tribal leaders and major urban political centres, mostly under the influence of nationalist
Arabs, resisted the administration of Idris as King and a platform for continued British
control.The King was clearly a religious leader, and many who opposed mainly a (secular
mined) regretted that the new Libya had been molded along religious lines. while also there
were two opposing tendencies that comes into conflict: the Istiqlal party under Salim al-
Muntasser, related to industry and the British military administration between the National
Congress Party under Bashir Bey Sadawi, going with the Arab League. The second general
election in Libya took place in January 1956, but it had no democratic value, political parties
no longer mattered and voting was based on ethnicity, tribal relations and nepotism. All
political groups and organizations were strictly prohibited, political meetings were forbidden,
and the press was subject to licensing and regulation. this create a situation even more tense
than before and Idris underestimates the political flow that is running quickly under his radar
that many scholar predicts a military coup at that time.

With the riches side by side with poverty, trade union and political aspirations without
a viable platform, the contradictions endured by the residual Italian colonial existence, the
fall of the monarchies in Egypt and Iraq, the relentless nationalist tension maintained by the
existence of European and American bases on Libyan territory–all of these combined to
intimidate the traditional political system that lead to the coup against King Idris on 1
September 1969 was led by Captain Muammar al-Gaddafi.9

Picture 1.4 Muammar al-Gaddafi

Source: https://face2faceafrica.com/article/what-did-i-do-to-you-last-words-of-libyas-muammar-
gaddafi-to-rebels-just-before-he-was-killed
Gaddafi has successfully overthrown the monarchy and proclaimed the Libyan Arab
Republic. Under the government of Gadaffi its politcal sytem in Libya follow the ideology of

9
Geoff Simons. 1996. Libya: The Struggle for Survival. Accessed on March, 26 2020
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Gaddafi which is rejected the capitalism ad western liberal democracy value, his own unique
conception of the system involved many influence from broad ideas including pan-arabism,
nationalism, Islam and yet democracy. Gaddafi built his new regime on a combination of
Arab nationalism, elements of the welfare state, and what Gaddafi termed' immediate,
mainstream democracy.' He titled this structure ' Islamic socialism,' and while allowing
private ownership of small corporations, the government controlled the larger ones. To
reasured Libyan people, Gaddafi wrote his own political philosophy namely ‘Green Book’
between 1975 and 1979 to enforces his idea about the Islamic Socialist. Gaddafi politics
toward the international relations tends to be agressive, such as the military attempt on chad
borders and also Gaddafi uses its country wealth through oil to influence other country by its
political ideologies. Gaddafi renounced all government functions on 2 March 1979. However,
as leader of the revolution he retained ultimate control over Libya.
The reign of Muammar Gaddafi is ended in the aftermath ot the civil war in 2011, it is
said that the Gadaffi regime itself brought upon such a cluster, due to the arrest of human
rights activist ‘Fethi Tarbel’ on 15 February, it sparked a riots and demonstrations in eastern
Libya towards Gadaffi regime. The National Transitional Council was officially established
in Benghazi, Libya's largest city in the east proclaimed itself the supreme representative of
the Libyan people on 5 March 2011. After around five months of armed conflict, Libyan
rebel forces eventually overran Gaddafi's capital, Tripoli, on August 21. On October 20,
Muammar Gaddafi was arrested by rebels outside Sirte after he had fled there for more than
two months. And the Gaddafi regime is officialy ended, that left the country with no
government.10
The goals of the NTC as set out in its constitutional declaration issued on 3 August
2011 represent the principles of a democratic transition as well as secularization and the
liberalization of the country. The aftermath of the civil war led Libya into more democratic
country, however the on going internal conflict in Libyan system seems to be still continue
until today. There is still blurry line who hold the power in Libya, nonetheless Fayez al-
Saaraj is the one that internationally recognized as a Chairman of the Presidential Council
simultaneously as a Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord since 30 March
2016 until today.

D. Libya Loyalty

10
Siddharth Kulkarni. March 2014. Libya: Birth or Death of a New Democracy. Accessed on March, 26 2020.
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Middle East or so called Arab World has various terms to loyalties, nation state in the
Middle East has long rooted influence of loyalties. There are 4 categories of loyalty that has
developed over decades in Middle East which is Ashabiyah, Qaummiyah, Wathanniyah and
Ummah. The terms of Ashabiyah can also understand as worldview that prefer loyalty to
certain families or ideologies, beliefs, associations, groups, etc. in order to make them feel the
highest, good competitor, respectable competitor, and the certain than no other community
holds. While Qaummiyah is the idea of making loyalty a goal for certain communities. It can
be seen as an example of the Arab League movement being formed and attempts being made
to form an Arab Republic union with Syrians. Moreover, Wathanniyah has meaning the
desire to show the nation state’s allegiance compared with the others. And lastly is that
Ummah means a spirit that prioritizes allegiance to a particular religion without
distinguishing the family roots, race and nation state. 11 Libya is one of the complicated
country since the country going through two civil war, however in this part of the section
attempt to understand the position of Libyan loyalty.
Libya has the tendency towards Qaummiyah and Ummah, it can be shown to the
action that Libya. Although Libya is not the founding father of the Arab League that
established on March 22, 1945 based on the proposal of King Faruk of Egypt, Libya shared
the same vision and mission with Arab Leagues hence Libya Joined the Arab Leagues in
1953 for the beginning of mark the Partnerships for improving the socials, cultures, and
economy of each member state to achieve common interest and also to free Arab land from
the occupation of foreign nations.
In terms of Ummah, it can be seen as Libya as a majority Muslim religion support
muslin in Palestine for its liberation and denounce the existence of Israel state. In the Gaddafi
regime the support for Palestine is clear with Gaddafi emphasize that “Israel's 'aggressive
existence' should be destroyed, that the conflict was 'beyond the point of negotiations and
peaceful solutions', and that 'the armed struggle [is] the only course left for the Arab nation to
liberate Palestine”.12 Gaddafi regime emphasize on the war that Zionist existences is a threat
for the Arab Worlds. Moreover, in early spring 2002 as the conflict between Israel and the
Palestinians intensified, Libya transported assistance worth approximately $50 million,
providing food, medicines, blankets and clothes to the Palestinians. Libya also offered to bear
the fee of treatment for all Palestinians injured and hospitalized in private Jordanian hospital.
11
DR. Sidik Jatmika, MSi. January 2016. Hubungan Internasional Kawasan Timur Tengah. Accessed on May,
18 2020.
12
Yehudit Ronen. June 2014. Libya's Qadhafi and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, 1969-2002. Accessed on
May, 18 2020.
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Libya has been shown support to Palestine in spite of the different approach with the other
Arab state in dealing with this issue, Libya has been initiated idea that has perspective zero
sum game which one will come out as a winner and the other as a loser. That being
contradicted with some Arab state that propose peace resolution could be achieve between
state, Libya is still stand its position to brings Arab state as one to fight Israel militarily since
Palestine could not do it.
However, since the second civil war Libya has turned into full domestic conflict. The
state has 2 administrations that work separately that both opposing Israel. However, under the
Haftar regime that has full control for Benghazi, and his administration has secret relation
with Israel that his army has been supplied by Israeli weapons.13 This contradicted with
Gaddafi regime that won’t even step his foot in the utopia state (Israel), if Haftar won as a
self-ruler in Libya it may be impacted the relation between both Israel and Palestine in the
future and it might shifted Palestine to not being prioritize no more like in Gaddafi regime.
But for now Haftar regime is focusing on its own nation state domestic issues.

E. Libya Political Issues

In this part of section will going through some of the political issue in the Middle East
or Arab World. This part of section attempt to explain the involvement of Libya in some of
the political issue, and also political issue that Libya has involve many Arab state. The
political issue from Gaddafi regime until the current state of Libya civil war. The
involvement of the Libya on the Sudanese Civil War, Yom Kippur War, Lebanese Civil War,
Libya and Egypt War, and lastly Libya Civil War.
 Sudanese Civil War
The First Sudanese Civil War was a 1955-1972 dispute that desired self-governance
and more regional autonomy between the northern part of Sudan and the southern portion of
Sudan.14 Over the 17 years, half a million people died and the war was split into 4 major
stages: initial guerrilla warfare, the creation of the Anyanya insurgency, political strife within
the government and the establishment of the South Sudan Liberation Movement. On 27
March 1972, the Khartoum government and the Southern rebels reached the Addis Abeba
Agreement that ended the First Civil War in Sudan. Which ended up taking charge of the
Sudanese government by General Gaafar Nimeri, renouncing socialism and attract more
13
This article has aired on TRTWORLD with the title How Khalifa Haftar’s secret ties with Israel fuel chaos in
Libya. Accessed on May, 18 2020. https://www.trtworld.com/africa/how-khalifa-haftar-s-secret-ties-with-
israel-fuel-chaos-in-libya-31941
14
Scopas S. Poggo. February 2009. The First Sudanese Civil War. Accessed on May, 20 2020.
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foreign investors to Sudan. However, from the violation of the agreement and heated tension
between parties lead to the second civil war. The Second Civil War in Sudan was a conflict
between the central Sudanese government and the People's Liberation Army in the period
1983 to 2005. This was in significant part a consequence of the First Civil War in Sudan.
Although that started in southern Sudan, the civil war extended to the Nuba and Blue Nile
mountains. It lasted 22 years, which is one of the longest known civil wars. The conflict
ended in South Sudan becoming independent six years after the war ended.15
Libya Involvement in the first civil war was helping the Northern Sudan by sending
economic aid and military aid. In terms of military two hundred Libyan paratroopers fought
side by side Sudanese forces when, in September-October 1970, they invaded and captured
the Anya-Nya fortress at Morta. Libya support was due to the authoritarian regime that
Gaafar Nimeri set up that align with Gaddafi ideology. Moreover, in the second civil war
Libya has shifted its support to the Nimeri opposition which is to the Southern Sudan. Since
the Northern Sudan is more leaning towards the western power, it distancing the relation
between Sudan and Libya since Gaddafi ideology is anti-western. Gaddafi providing financial
and material support for groups like Anyanya II and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army
(SPLA) And later on in 1988 Libya was not involved directly anymore with the Civil War but
still has a close contact with both side. Until in July 2000, the Libyan and Egyptian Joint
Initiative on the Sudan was proposed, calling for an transitional government to be formed,
power sharing, constitutional change and new elections.

 The Yom Kippur War

Egyptian and Syrian forces conducted a joint assault on Yom Kippur, the holiest day
of the Jewish calendar, on October 6, 1973, in an effort to regain the territory that lost to
Israel during the third Israeli- Arab war, in 1967. Egyptian troops advanced deep into the
Sinai Peninsula, confronted by Israeli Defense Forces, and Syria was fighting to eliminate the
occupying Israelis' troops from the Golan Heights. The Golan Heights is counterattacked and
recaptured by Israel. Keep in mind that the Yom Kippur war also happening during the Cold
War. The Cold War has a critical part to play in the conflict, as the Soviet Union has
supported the Arab countries with Soviet weaponry and Israel has assisted by the United
States.16 To put end to the war U.N called a ceasefire and it is achieved on October 25, 1973.

15
Jok Madut Jok and Sharon Elaine Hutchinson. September 1999. Sudan's Prolonged Second Civil War and the
Militarization of Nuer and Dinka Ethnic Identities. Accessed on May, 20 2020.
16
Cierra Bakhsh. March 2020. Historiography of the Yom Kippur War. Accessed on May, 21 2020.
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However, the Arab-Israeli dispute was still notable in reality. Although the Sinai Desert has
been returned to Egypt, Israel still has control in the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem, West
Bank, and the Gaza Strip.
Libya also assisted the war along with the other Arab state. Libya has provided
military supports, resources, aid and etc. there are some disagreement when come to battle
plan with Sadat yet Gaddafi still provide oil, aircraft, and money to help the war effort that
approximately around $500 million. Which included funding for 70 substitute MiG-21s as
well as other supplies for both Egypt and Syria.17

 Lebanese Civil War

The people in Lebanon lost their civil liberties in the Lebanese Civil War. They were
not properly represented within the government as their country's leader was Christian. They
needed a government presence. The trouble with this was that both Shias and Sunni desired
more influence than one another in state. In 1975, the Maronite Christians and the
Palestinians began fighting and the Lebanese Muslims have become supporters to the
Palestinians. And during fights alliances changed for the next year. This has gone on for
years. Other countries like Israel and Syria also got involved during this time. They fought all
the way through the war with different groups. The civil war ended with the signing of the
Taif Agreement in 1989 and it began bringing an end to the conflict. It provided a time frame
within which other countries needed to be out of the region. The other countries left Lebanon
within the period but there are still remained friction between the Shias and the Sunni.
Libya involvement in the Civil War has to do with Palestinians that took refuge in the
Lebanon. Libya has known for giving aid for palatine, and when the new broke out that
Palestine also fighting the Christian in Lebanon, Libya under Gaddafi regime sees this as an
opportunity as an to be an principal Arab that support Palestinian armed groups. However it
didn’t last long Libyan forces essentially abandoned due to the complex conflict with the
Maronite Christian, Israel opposing PLO, Syria, and Muslim. Although Libya did not get
direct involved anymore, they still strongly support the Progressives and the Palestinians.
Aside from money and military equipment, the Libyans provided considerable political
assistance and motivation to the progressives for Palestinians that in Lebanon.18 And Libya
still pushing the ideology of pan Arabism whenever there is a western power involve for

Edgar O'balance. August 2008. No victor, no vanquished: the Yom Kippur War. Accessed on May, 21 2020.
17

Joseph Chamie. February 2016. THE LEBANESE CIVIL WAR: AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE CAUSES.
18

Accessed on May, 20 2020.

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instance that Israel invasion to Lebanon during the civil war and U.S aid to the Maronite
Christian.

 Libya and Egypt War

The war lasted for 4 days that from 21 to 24 July 1977, the conflict was a short border
war between Libya and Egypt.19 The war was started by Libya with attempt to assassination
plot to President Anwar Sadat at that time and also attack the town of Sallum on Egypt
Mediterranean coast with artillery tanks and jet fighter bombers. However, Sadat
administration retaliate attacking with 3 division of Egyptian army that located nearby the
border. Sadat had a plan of full invasion towards Libya however it is restricted by the Arab
league. The war ended as the other Arab state called for ceasefire that agreed on July 24.
The deterioration of both relation was by the Egypt action with in the aftermath of the
Yom Kippur War that lead to the Egypt signing the peace treaty with Israel. Thus, the action
Egypt took seen as offensive to Libyan since no Arab state has acknowledge the Israel
existence. The political differences worsen by the two state failed to achieve its unification as
one state. In addition, Egypt also has broken ties with the Soviet Union and making a relation
towards the western state such as U.S. These political differences distant both state as an ally
that lead to 4 days war. Not only Egypt partnership with the west heating up Libya this means
that in the Libya perspective Egypt has taken a different path that Libya will never see Egypt
as the same anymore.

 The First Libya Civil War (Arab Springs)

19
Martin Hannan. July 2017. The forgotten 4-days war that almost ousted Gaddafi and changed the course of
history. Accessed on May, 21 2020.
 P a g e | 12

Picture 1.5 Libyan Uprising It was all started on a December 2010

when a lower class man protests for poor
economic income, police enforcement
suppression, and justice in front of a
government office with the protest by set
himself on fire that later killing himself. 20
His protests in front of government office
has sparks a revolutionary uprising in
Tunisia that later spread to its
Source:https://media.pri.org/s3fspublic/styles/story_main/
public/libya-benghazi-2011-3 11.jpg?itok=zjuKNCTX neighboring country that known as Arab
Spring. Other people that has suffered from the same regime in Tunisia that allegedly
corrupted begin to revolt starting with Algeria, Jordan and Oman throughout January. And
around January 25 the revolution spark in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Libya. The Arab
Spring that refers to the outbreak of Middle East demonstrations, which helped to bring in
reforms in the government in countries that corrupted. The supporters of the progressive
movements pursued greater social freedoms and greater involvement in the political process.
However, not all protest can be considered successful. Indeed, the revolts of the Arab Spring
have led to greater turmoil and injustice in many countries of the Near East. In some
situations, these demonstrations have been converted into widespread civil wars in Libya,
Syria and Yemen.
The protest in Libya has led a Political Instability in Libya that force Gaddafi regime
to respond. The protest in Libya were not easy under Gaddafi regime, this led into full civil
war between the Authoritarian regime of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and rebel forces that
supported by foreign state such as NATO country, Jordan, Qatar, Sweden and U.A.E. The
rebel has formed of groups that opposing Gaddafi regime that called as National Transitional
Council.21 After a several month of fight the rebel has finally take control of Libya on 20
October 2011 when Gaddafi was captured and killed in the hand of the rebel with the help of
NATO air supports and UNSC resolution on no fly zone. Although the NTC has full control
of Libya, there are some challenges to face with the Gaddafi loyalist. In 23 October 2011 the
NTC declared the official end of the war.

F. Supporting and inhibiting factors of political issues

20
Yannis Stivachtis. April 2019. Political (In)Security in the Middle East. Accessed on May, 21 2020.
21
Hassan H. Elkatawneh. November 2013. Libyan Civil War. Accessed on May, 21 2020.
 P a g e | 13

In this part of section will attempt to explain the cases below, why it could be
occurred in the first place. This part will narrow it down into 2 cases which is the Libya and
Egypt War and the first Libya civil war (Arab spring). From the two cases will examine two
factor of the support and inhibitors factor that lead into the cases occurred.

 The supporting and inhibiting factors of the Libya and Egypt War
To understand why the war itself happened and why it ended so quickly there are
some factors that has influence both state itself. The relation with both state itself has begun
in colonial era, it can be said that they both has closed tied ally. However it change drastically
after the Arab state lost to Israel in Yom Kippur War in 1973. The change of Foreign Policy
by Egypt has change Libya perspective towards Egypt itself. From the Egypt and Israel Peace
Treaty that sign in Washington D.C. Furthermore, the Egypt foreign policy that cut ties the
Soviet Union and leaning more towards Western country and also the failure of Unification
of Syria, Egypt and Libya that initiated by Muammar Gaddafi. The changing Egypt foreign
policy was the reasons that the war occurred, since Libya and Egypt was had the same
ideology to fight the western country. Now Libya feel betrayed when there are several
foreign policy changing by Egypt. Libya immediately took action to overthrow the current
President Anwar Sadat that doesn’t have the same vision anymore with Libya. The protest on
Egypt embassy and the demonstration that took place in Egypt or so called “March on Cairo”
by the Libyan loyalist also the reasons that make the tension between states even higher.
The only thing that stopped the war was because Arab state intervene and told to have
a ceasefire and they both agreed on 24 July. The other reasons also is that Egypt knew if they
do a full invasion towards Libyan other Arabs state will not approve the actions. Thus, Egypt
under Sadat administration bluff Gaddafi just like a little brother in a fight. But in Gaddafi
perspective that the war is real due to the feeling of betrayal by the Egypt.

 The supporting and inhibiting factors of the first Libya civil war (Arab spring)
There are some factors that heating up in leading to the Libyan civil war. Libya has
been under Authoritarian regime for too long, and when the Arab spring spread throughout
Libya, peace demonstration all over city in Libya happen. In response, Gaddafi regime start
to disband the protester with violence since Gaddafi sees that as a threat to its position. The
suppression of Berbers ethnic in Libya exploded and also many people that suppressed during
the regime. That is the start of rebellion of the people that has been suppressed. Other factor
 P a g e | 14

that help heating up the situation is when the western country start to supporting the rebellion
due to the human right violations.
That is inevitable for the Gaddafi regime to be overthrow, there are several attempt to
called ceasefire during the civil war by the Gaddafi government but the rebel ignored the
ceasefire and continue the war. The rebel does not want to oblige to the ceasefire because the
terms are not including the removal of Gaddafi in position. Despite other parties best efforts
to end the civil war such as African Union. The rebel still stand its ground that until Gaddafi
is removed from its position that Libya can have peace. Unfortunately, the civil war continue
since both parties are uncompromising. The end of the civil war was ended up with Gaddafi
overthrown and killed by the rebel in Sirte.

G. Issue prospects for the next 5 years

Libyan must have to face with the issue surrounding leadership and foreign
intervention in the next future time, since Gaddafi created a personalized state, and when he
was overthrown, the state collapsed with him. After the internationally recognised interim
government, known as the Transitional National Council (TNC), took office, the complexities
of governing Libya in the post-Qaddafi period became clearly apparent. The TNC continued
to struggle to reinstall the Libyan economy, establish functional government institutions and
exercising influence over many independent local and tribal militia groups which had took
part in the Gaddafi resistance movement. Consequently, Libya has been in a state of civil war
since Qaddafi's overthrow, and two competing governments essentially control different parts
of the state.

Picture 1.6 Fayez al-Sarraj and Khalifa Haftar

Source: https://iuvmpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/libyas_khalifa_haftar_and_fayez_.jpg
 P a g e | 15

Furthermore, 2014 election was a start for a second civil war that Libya must face.
General National Congress (GNC) that has been elected in 2012 has failed to establish a new
constitutions and now must face with reality that the people voted for House of
Representative (HoR) however the election resulted a low turnout due to violence. This was a
dispute between GNC and HoR that GNC claim HoR are not the administration of Libya.
Hence, the HoR seek for support to Tobruk with Khalifa Haftar. These situation of Libya
after the 2014 elections grab the attention of the U.N and thus, U.N immediately conduct
mediation between the both rivalry parties to create a legitimate ruler for Libya as a whole.
To mediate both parties U.N formed a UN backed Government of National Accord (GNA).
But this action was ignored by both GNC and Haftar-HoR. While GNC has dissolved in 2016
due to no longer control any relevant institutions.22
The second civil war will not end in a short period of time, since many of foreign
state backing up these diverse parties. This lead into long term civil war where all these
parties want to have a full control of Libya with foreign state support intervening the issue for
solely their national interest in Libya, Libya now will face a much harder challenge in the
coming with a solutions. With GNA backed with Turkey, Qatar and Sudan while Haftar-HoR
backed with Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, U.A.E, Israel, Chad and Belarus. During
the years of political instability, Libya's civilian population has suffered greatly, with chaos
on the streets and accessibility to food, employment and health services seriously limited.
Thus, Libya in the future time will have an issue in dealing with leadership and also
foreign intervention. This issue of balance of power put question on Libya on how hierarchy
and order will be restored in Libya. In addition, after the many political dispute in Libya how
will Libya recover from badly damaged economically oil reserve in Libya as a national
power.

Jonathan M. Winer. February 2019. ORIGINS OF THE LIBYAN CONFLICT AND OPTIONS FOR ITS
22

RESOLUTION. Accessed on May, 21 2020.

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