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Production Management – PRDH20-2

Session 18 → Master Production Schedule (MPS)


+ Material Requirements Planning (MRP)
From APP to MPS

Aggregate Production
Planning (APP)

Disaggregation

Master Production
Schedule (MPS)

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What is Disaggregation?

◼ Output of Aggregate Production Planning


◼ Production Schedule for “family” of products

◼ Breaking down the APP in detail


◼ Disaggregation

◼ Need to know → For each “type” of product


◼ What quantities
◼ When

◼ Disaggregation results in Master Production Schedule

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Master Production Scheduling

◼ MPS is a “Statement of Production”


◼ Not a Forecast
◼ Link between production planning and what
manufacturing will actually build

◼ Forms the basis for calculating the capacity and resources


needed

◼ It is a priority plan for manufacturing


◼ An agreed upon plan between marketing and
manufacturing

◼ Drives the Material Requirements Planning (MRP)


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MPS – Structure

◼ MPS starts with forecast, committed orders and beginning


inventory balance
Product Code
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Forecast
Customer Orders (committed)
Projected On-hand Inventory
MPS
ATP (uncommitted)
ATP = Available To Promise

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MPS with Order Promise – Formulas

◼ Projected on hand
= Previous period Projected on hand + MPS –
Max(Forecast, Orders)

◼ 1st period ATP


= Previous period Projected on hand + Any 1st period MPS
– SUM(All committed orders until next MPS)

◼ Other period ATP


= MPS in that period – SUM(All committed order in that
and subsequent periods until next MPS)

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MPS – Example

Product Code
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40
Customer Orders
33 20 10 4 2
(committed)
Projected On-hand
64
Inventory
MPS
Available-to-promise
(uncommitted)

◼ Lot size = 70 units


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MPS – Example – Solution

Product Code
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40
Customer Orders
33 20 10 4 2
(committed)
Projected On-hand
64 31 1 41 11 41 1 31 61
Inventory
MPS 70 70 70 70
64 – 33
Available-to-promise 70 – 14 70 – 2
– 20 = 70 70
(uncommitted) = 56 = 68
11

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Some Important Terms

◼ Time fence
◼ Demand time fence – Do not consider Forecast
◼ Depends on production plus delivery lead time
◼ Planning time fence – Do not change current MPS
◼ Depends on procurement plus production lead time

◼ Frozen
◼ Slushy or Moderately Firm
◼ Liquid or Flexible

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MPS – Example – Modified to Explain
Time Fences
TODAY Demand Time Planning Time
Fence Fence
Frozen Slushy Liquid
Product Code
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40
Customer Orders
33 20 10 4 2
(committed)
Projected On-hand 1 41 11 41 1
64 31
Inventory 11 51 21 51 11
MPS 70 70
70 + 11
Available-to-promise 70 – 2
– 14 =
(uncommitted) = 68
67
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Material Requirements Planning
(MRP)

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Independent and Dependent Demand
Independent Demand

A Dependent Demand

B(4) C(2)

D(2) E(1) D(3) F(2)

Independent demand is uncertain


Dependent demand is certain
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Bill-of-Materials

◼ Bill of materials (BOM)


◼ One of the three primary inputs of MRP
◼ A listing of all of the
◼ Raw materials/parts/subassemblies/assemblies
◼ Needed to produce one unit of a product

◼ Product structure tree


◼ Visual depiction of the requirements in a bill of
materials
◼ Where all components are listed by levels

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Inventory Records

◼ Each material has one and only one “Material record”


◼ Irrespective of the number of levels it is used in a product
or many products

◼ Material Record includes


◼ Low level code
◼ Inventory on hand
◼ Materials on order
◼ Planning factors
◼ Lot size/Lead time/Safety stock level

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MRP Outputs

◼ Planned orders
◼ Schedule indicating amount and timing of future orders

◼ Order releases
◼ Authorization for the execution of planned orders

◼ Changes
◼ Revisions of due dates or order quantities
◼ Cancellations of orders if any

◼ MRP Secondary Reports


◼ Performance-control reports/Planning
reports/Exception reports
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Secondary Reports

◼ Performance control reports


◼ Inventory turnover
◼ % of deliver promises kept
◼ Stock-out incidents
◼ Planning reports
◼ Inventory forecast
◼ Purchase commitment report
◼ Pegging
◼ Exception reports – Requires management attention
◼ Late orders
◼ Excessive scraps

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Updating the System

◼ Regenerative system
◼ Updates MRP records periodically, usually every week
◼ At this time New MPS/Updated inventory status file
/Up-to-date BOM are fed into the system
◼ Generates complete set of output

◼ Net-change system
◼ Updates MRP/MPS records as changes in MRP/MPS
occur
◼ MRP system is then activated to generate
◼ Only net changes to past MRP run
◼ Entire output is not generated
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Material Requirements Planning
(MRP) Processing
◼ Known
◼ Bill of Materials (BOM)
◼ MPS for Final Product
◼ For each component/subassembly
◼ Beginning inventory
◼ Safety stock required
◼ Lead time for order
◼ Lot sizing rule

◼ Prepare
◼ MRP

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MRP Processing

◼ Fill the Table


Period 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Dependent Demand Based on POR and BOM
Independent Demand Based on Forecast
Gross Requirements (GR) Add all demands for the period
Scheduled Receipt Pipeline Inventory
On Hand Inventory(OH) Minimum will be safety stock value
Based on Lot sizing rule and triggered
Planned Order Receipt (PR) when current period OH becomes less than
safety stock
Planned Order Release (POR) Based on Lead time

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MRP – Example
◼ For each unit of Product A → 2 units Part B + Other parts
◼ Product A information
◼ ID → Jan (100 units); Feb (130 units); Mar (110 units)
◼ Lot size = Multiple of 140 units
◼ Safety Stock = 50 units
◼ Planned Inventory at December end = 70 units
◼ Part B information
◼ ID → Jan (80 units); Mar (70 units)
◼ Lot size = Multiple of 200 unit
◼ Safety Stock = 80 units
◼ Planned Inventory at December end = 250 units
◼ Scheduled receipt = 200 units in February
◼ Lead time = 1 month
◼ Apply Lot-for-lot (L4L) lot sizing policy Dipankar Bose - XLRI
Production Management – PRDH20-2
Session 14 → Lean Manufacturing (Concepts +
TPM)
What is Value Added?

◼ A step is value-added if
◼ The Customer recognizes the value
◼ It changes the Fit, Form, or Function of the product
◼ It is done right at the first time

◼ A Value Adding Activity transforms or shapes raw material


or information to meet customer requirements
◼ All three of these conditions must be met

◼ Types of processes
◼ Value added/ Non-value added/ Necessary, but non-
value added
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Push Vs. Pull Approach

◼ Push approach
◼ Forecast based
◼ “Move the job on when finished”
◼ Problem → Creates excessive inventory

◼ Pull approach
◼ Coordinated production
◼ Demand pulled through system
◼ Extensive use of visual order triggers
◼ Production/Withdrawal kanban
◼ Problem → Cannot manage high demand uncertainty

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Waste

◼ ‘Reducing’ Employee ≠ ‘Increasing’ Productivity


◼ ‘Reducing’ Waste = ‘Increasing’ Productivity

◼ Seven types of waste (Muda/TIMWOOD) – Taiichi Ohno


◼ Transportation
◼ Inventory
◼ Motion/Movement
◼ Waiting
◼ Over-processing
◼ Over-production
◼ Defects

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Muda in Service – A Hospital Example

◼ Transportation
◼ Moving patients unnecessarily from one hospital unit to
another
◼ Inventories
◼ Inputs to the process that are waiting to be used (e.g.,
stock of aspirin)
◼ Motion/Movement
◼ Staff walking to various places around the work area to
obtain supplies
◼ Waiting
◼ A radiologist waiting for a patient to be brought into
the exam room
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Muda in Service – A Hospital Example
– Continued
◼ Over-processing
◼ Continuing to care for patients in the hospital when
they could be discharged
◼ Over-production
◼ Performing unnecessary tests to prevent a lawsuit for
malpractice
◼ Defects
◼ Rebilling the insurance company because the first bill
contained an error

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Flow Process Chart

Job Requisition of petty cash


Details of Method
Requisition made by department head
Put in “pick-up” basket
To accounting department
Account and signature verified
Amount approved by treasurer
Amount counted by cashier
Amount recorded by bookkeeper
Petty cash sealed in envelope
Petty cash carried to department
Petty cash checked against requisition
Receipt signed
Petty cash stored in safety box
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Some Important Terms

◼ Muri/Mura/Muda
◼ Jidoka – Automation with human touch (Autonomation)
◼ Poka-yoke
◼ Andon
◼ Kanban
◼ One piece flow
◼ Level production
◼ Heijunka
◼ SMED (Single Minute Exchange of Dies)
◼ Milk run logistics
◼ Kaizen

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Topic: Total Productive Maintenance
(TPM)

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What is TPM?

◼ TPM is a
◼ Lean tool
◼ To optimize the effectiveness of manufacturing
equipment and tooling

◼ Starts with 5S
◼ Builds a comprehensive Downtime Database by
◼ Cause/ Frequency/ Duration
◼ Predicts and prevents downtime by PM system
◼ Expands role of Operator
◼ First point of early warning and prevention
◼ Total Employee Involvement (TEI)
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5S

◼ Seiri → Sort
◼ Seiton → Set in order
◼ Seiso → Shine
◼ Seiketsu → Standardize
◼ Shitsuke → Self-discipline

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8 Pillars of TPM

◼ Initial Control
◼ 5S

◼ Pillars
◼ Autonomous Maintenance – Jishu Hozen
◼ Planned Maintenance
◼ Quality Maintenance – Hinshitsu Hozen
◼ Focused Improvement – Kobetsu Kaizen
◼ Early Equipment Management
◼ Education & Training
◼ Safety, Hygiene & Environment
◼ Office TPM
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Production Management – PRDH20-2
Session 15 → TPM (Continued) + Overall
Equipment Effectiveness (OEE)
TPM – Five Phases for Actions against
Breakdown

◼ Phase 1 → Change to natural deterioration by eliminating


◼ Factors of “Accelerated deterioration”
◼ Phase 2 → Extend inherent service life of equipment by
“Corrective maintenance”
◼ Improvements to overcome design limitations
◼ Phase 3 → Identify “Natural deterioration” pattern
◼ Study how deterioration increases over time
◼ Phase 4 → Search which parameter to measure for
deterioration
◼ Phase 5 → Implement “Predictive maintenance”

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Steps to Zero Breakdown

◼ Classify B/D data ( Including Equipment Ranking)


◼ ABC classification of machines
◼ Analysis of present status in QC Approach
◼ Failure modes – Accelerated/Natural/Design
◼ Find out root cause & implement countermeasure
◼ If solution is not available
◼ Identify breakdown recurrence / understand phenomenon
◼ Investigate design weakness
◼ Improve it
◼ Investigate natural deterioration
◼ Set deterioration pattern

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Steps to Zero Breakdown – Continued

◼ Select & evaluate maintenance point & standard


◼ Decide how to do
◼ Time Based Maintenance (TBM)
◼ Decide Frequency
◼ Condition Based Maintenance (CBM)
◼ Decide instruments
◼ Build best maintenance procedure
◼ For all machines/machine parts
◼ Apply “Maintenance prevention”
◼ Reduce “Red Tag”
◼ Increase “White Tag”

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TPM – Advantages
TPM Pillars Advantages
Autonomous Maintenance by Equipment becomes more reliable as
operators operators are responsible
Planned Maintenance using Plan scheduling when production activities
historical failure of machines are few
Quality Maintenance by prevention Equipment reliability improves
Focused Improvement using cross- Improves problem solving capabilities
functional teams
Early Equipment Maintenance for Full potential for new equipment in a shorter
new equipment time
Education & Training of all workers Employees gain the necessary skills to enable
them solve problems
Health, Safety & Environment for Elimination of harmful conditions & healthy
ideal working environment workforce
Office TPM to include Support functions understand the benefits of
administrative functions these improvements Dipankar Bose - XLRI
Topic: Overall Equipment
Effectiveness (OEE)

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Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE)

◼ OEE = Availability x Performance x Quality


◼ Total Effective Equipment Performance (TEEP)
= Loading x OEE
◼ Loading = Loading Time / Total Time

◼ Six Big Losses


◼ Breakdowns
◼ Setup and Adjustments
◼ Small Stops
◼ Reduced Speed
◼ Startup Rejects
◼ Production Rejects
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Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE)
– Calculations

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Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE)
– Example
Item Data
Shift Length 8 hours = 480 min.
Short Breaks 2 @ 15 min. = 30 min.
Meal Break 1 @ 30 min. = 30 min.
Preventive Maintenance 25 minutes
Downtime 35 minutes
Ideal Run Rate 60 pieces per minute
Total Pieces 15,000 pieces
Reject Pieces 500 pieces
◼ Calculate OEE and TEEP
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Toyota Production System (TPS) –
Spear & Bowen (1999)
◼ Countermeasure vs. Solution
◼ View on Inventory quantity and types

◼ Four rules of TPS


◼ How people work
◼ How people connect
◼ How the production line is constructed
◼ How to improve

◼ Experiments of the TPS

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How Line is Constructed? How People
Work?
Raw Material M/C 1 M/C 2 M/C 3 M/C 4 Final Product

Standard Operating Procedure (SOP)

Raw Material M/C 1 M/C 2 M/C 4 Final Product

All Steps Were Necessary

Raw Material M/C 1 M/C 2 M/C 3 M/C 4 Final Product

All Steps Were Sufficient M/C X

SOP is followed Correct Output

Wrong Output
SOP is correct Dipankar Bose - XLRI
How People Connect

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How People Connect

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Production Management – PRDH20-2
Session 16 → Waiting Line Management – Part
I (Concepts and Numerical)
Waiting Line Management

◼ More important for service


◼ Considered as non-value added
◼ Problem occurs due to randomness in arrival/service

◼ Objective → Minimize (Cost of waiting + Cost of capacity)

◼ Channel and Phase

◼ Balking/Reneging/Jockeying

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Important Factors for Choosing Model

◼ Population source
◼ Finite/ Infinite
◼ Line or QUEUE/ SYSTEM
◼ Number of servers
◼ Single/Multiple
◼ Parallel/Series
◼ Arrival & Service pattern assumptions
◼ Rate → Poisson; Inter-arrival time → Exponential
◼ When waiting occurs?
◼ Problem if assumptions are not valid
◼ Service policy
◼ FCFS/Priority rules (Not covered)
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Models for Waiting Line

◼ Infinite population
◼ Single Channel
◼ Service Rate – Poisson → M/M/1
◼ Service Rate – Constant → M/D/1
◼ Multiple Channel
◼ Service Rate – Poisson → M/M/S

◼ Finite population

◼ Approximation/General model for infinite population

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Steady State Conditions – Little’s Law

◼ Notations (all are average values)


◼ Arrival rate = ; Service rate in any server = 
◼ Inter-arrival time = 1/ ; Service time = 1/
◼ Waiting time in QUEUE = 𝑊𝑞
◼ Waiting time in SYSTEM = 𝑊𝑠
◼ Number of customers in QUEUE = 𝐿𝑞
◼ Number of customers in SYSTEM = 𝐿s

◼ Little’s Law → For both QUEUE/ SYSTEM


◼ Average number of customers
= Average Arrival rate × Average waiting time

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Steady State Conditions – Continued

◼ More Notations
◼ Number of servers = S (in Textbook M)
◼ Average Service rate considering all servers = S
◼ Average Server utilization =  = /(S)
◼ How to increase average server utilization?
◼ Average number of customers being served (at any
time, considering all servers) = r = /
◼ Relation between QUEUE and SYSTEM
◼ Average number waiting in SYSTEM = Average number
waiting in QUEUE + Average number being served
◼ Average time waiting in system = Average time waiting
in QUEUE + Average time for service
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M/M/1 System

◼ Average number of customers being served (at any time)


= System utilization (as only one server) = /
𝜆2
◼ Average number of customers in QUEUE = 𝐿𝑞 =
𝜇(𝜇−𝜆)

◼ Probability of “Less than ‘n’ units” in the SYSTEM = 𝑇𝑃𝑛−1


= 1 − (/)𝑛 = σ𝑛−1 𝑛=0 𝑃𝑛

◼ Probability of “Zero units” in the SYSTEM = SYSTEM is idle


= 𝑃0 =1 – SYSTEM Utilization

◼ Probability of “n units” in the SYSTEM = 𝑃𝑛 = 𝑃0 (/)𝑛


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M/M/1 – Problem

◼ Customers arrive at an average of one every 15 minutes,


and their requests take on average 10 minutes to be
processed. The service counter is staffed by only one clerk.
Assume Poisson arrivals and exponential service times.
a. What percentage of time is the clerk idle?
b. How much time, on average, does a customer spend
waiting in line?
c. How long is the (waiting) line on average?
d. What is the probability that an arriving customer (just
before entering the SYSTEM) will find at least one other
customer waiting in line?
◼ Textbook – Problem 1.a, 1.b (Page 816)
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M/M/1 – Homework

◼ Customers will arrive at the rate of 15 per hour. The staff


can service customers at the rate of one every three
minutes.
◼ Because of limited space availability and a desire to
provide an acceptable level of service, the organization
would like to ensure, with 95 percent confidence, that no
more than three customers will be in the system at any
time.
◼ What is the present level of service for the three-car limit?
◼ What level of staff use must be attained and what must be
the service rate of the staff to ensure the 95 percent level
of service?
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M/D/1 System

◼ Different from M/M/1 in terms of Service time


assumption
◼ In M/M/1 → Service time is exponential
◼ In M/D/1 → Service time is constant

𝜆2
◼ Average number of customers in QUEUE = 𝐿𝑞 =
𝟐𝜇(𝜇−𝜆)

◼ Textbook – Problem 2 (Page 816)

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Production Management – PRDH20-2
Session 17 → Waiting Line – Part II (Models) +
Aggregate Production Planning (APP)
M/M/S System

◼ There are S servers and one single QUEUE


◼ First calculate
◼ Average number of customers being served = /

◼ For (/) and S(or M) → Table 18.4 (Page 796-797)


◼ Average number of customers in QUEUE = 𝐿𝑞
◼ Probability of “Zero units” in the SYSTEM = 𝑃0

◼ Average waiting time for a customer who is not


immediately served = 𝑊𝑎 = 1/(S – )
◼ Probability that a customer have to wait after arrival = 𝑃𝑤
= 𝑊𝑞 / 𝑊𝑎
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Maximum Line Length for M/M/S

◼ Desired fraction is the probability that


◼ 𝐿𝑞 will not exceed 𝐿𝑀𝐴𝑋


◼ =
𝑆

(1 – desired fraction)
◼ K=
Lq (1 – )

LN(K)
◼ LMAX =
LN()

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Multiple Server Problems

◼ A shop has two service desks, one at each entrance of the


store. Customers arrive at each service desk at an average
of one every six minutes. The service rate at each service
desk is four minutes per customer.
a. How often (percentage of time) is each service desk idle?
b. What is the probability that both service clerks are busy?
c. What is the probability that both service clerks are idle?
d. How many customers, on average, are waiting in line in
front of each service desk?
e. How much time does a customer spend in front of a desk?
◼ Solve the problem for two counters with ONE queue
◼ Textbook – Problem 1.c (Page 816) → Solve the problem
for two centers, each with one server Dipankar Bose - XLRI
Problems – M/M/S

◼ Textbook – Example 5 (Page 799)


◼ Textbook – Example 7 (Page 801)

◼ Textbook – Problem 18 (Page 819)

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Finite Population – Calculations

◼ Customers → Working/Waiting/Servicing in cycles

◼ Notations
◼ Average Working time = U (Exponential)
◼ Average Servicing time = T (Exponential)
◼ Service Factor = X = T/(T + U)
◼ Total number of customers (Population) = N
◼ Number of Servers = S

◼ For N, X and S(or M) → Table 18.7 (Page 807-809)


◼ Probability of waiting for a customer in QUEUE = D
◼ Efficiency Factor = F = 1 – Fraction waiting in line
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Finite Population – Calculations –
Continued
◼ Number in System = Number Working + Number Waiting
+ Number being Served = N

◼ Average number Working = J = NF(1 – X)


◼ Average number Waiting = L = N(1 – F)
◼ Average number being Served = H = NFX

◼ Average Waiting time = T(1 – F)/XF


◼ Average Downtime = Average waiting time + Service time

◼ Probability of NOT waiting in QUEUE = 1 – D

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Finite Population – Problem

◼ Textbook – Example 10 (Page 806)

◼ Textbook – Problem 10 (Page 817)


◼ Textbook – Problem 11 (Page 818)

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Cost Optimization in Waiting Line

◼ Infinite population
◼ Total cost = Ls × Cost of waiting per customer + S ×
Cost of each server
◼ Finite population
◼ Total cost = N − J × Cost of waiting per customer +
S × Cost of each server

◼ Textbook – Example 6 (Page 800)


◼ Textbook – Example 11 (Page 810)

◼ Textbook – Problem 10.e (Page 817)


◼ Textbook – Problem 11.b (Page 818)
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Average Number Down – Concept –
Not in Syllabus
◼ Average number down = N – J = N – NF(1 – X)
◼ = N[1 – F + XF]

◼ Average Downtime per customer


◼ = T(1 – F)/XF + T = T[1 – F + XF]/XF

◼ T/X = T + U
◼ Total Cycle Time= T + U + T(1 – F)/XF = [1/F]T/X = T/XF

◼ Total downtime per time unit


◼ = (Average downtime per customer × N)/Total Cycle Time
◼ = Average Number Down
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General Model – Problem

◼ You are planning for six tellers in a bank. Tellers take 15


minutes per customer with a standard deviation of 7
minutes. Customers arrive one every three minutes
according to an exponential distribution. Every customer
that arrives eventually gets serviced.
◼ On average how many customers would be waiting in
line?
◼ On average how long would a customer spend in the
bank?

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Arrival and Service Rates do not follow
Particular Distribution
◼ Known
◼ 𝑋𝑎 = Mean Inter-arrival time
◼ 𝑋𝑠 = Mean Service time
◼ 𝑆𝑎 = Standard deviation of Inter-arrival time sample
◼ 𝑆𝑠 = Standard deviation of Service time sample
◼ Then
𝑆𝑎
◼ Coefficient of variation of Inter-arrival time = 𝐶𝑎 =
𝑋𝑎
𝑆𝑠
◼ Coefficient of variation of service time = 𝐶𝑠 =
𝑋𝑠
1
◼ Customer arrival rate =  =
𝑋𝑎
1
◼ Customer service rate =  =
𝑋𝑠
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Arrival and Service Rates do not follow
Particular Distribution – Continued
◼ Also

◼ Utilization of the server =  =
𝑆
 2(𝑆+1) 𝐶𝑎2 +𝐶𝑠2
◼ Average number in QUEUE = 𝐿𝑞 = ×
1− 2
left part numerator as  to the power
◼ Read 2(𝑆 + 1)

◼ Average number in SYSTEM = 𝐿𝑞 +

𝐿𝑞
◼ Average time waiting in QUEUE =

𝐿𝑠
◼ Average time waiting in SYSTEM =

◼ Can we use 𝑳𝒒 formula for M/M/1 and M/D/1?
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Topic: Aggregate Production
Planning (APP)

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Purpose of Aggregate Production
Planning (APP)
◼ Long range forecast – Capacity planning
◼ Medium range forecast – Aggregate production planning

◼ Pure strategies
◼ Changing inventory level
◼ Introducing overtime
◼ Changing workforce level (Hiring and Laying off)
◼ Subcontracting
◼ Influencing demand
◼ Mixed strategies

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Aggregate Planning Inputs

◼ Resources
◼ Workforce/Facilities
◼ Demand forecast
◼ Policies
◼ Overtime/ Inventory levels/ Back orders/
Subcontracting
◼ Costs
◼ Inventory carrying/Back orders/Inventory changes
◼ Hiring/firing/Overtime
◼ Subcontracting

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Costs Associated with Decisions

◼ Regular payroll vs. Overtime cost

◼ Hiring and firing cost

◼ Inventory vs. Backorder/Shortage cost

◼ Subcontracting cost

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Case – Macpherson Refrigeration

◼ Go through Excel file uploaded

◼ Use the data given in Excel file and use the data to get
values in
◼ Exhibit 1
◼ Why production at each month = 8400?
◼ Exhibit 2
◼ Why employee in each month = 199?
◼ Exhibit 3

◼ For a mixed approach


◼ Identify the important constraints
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