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Term Paper On Impact On Unemployment Rate Due To COVID 19
Term Paper On Impact On Unemployment Rate Due To COVID 19
Term Paper On Impact On Unemployment Rate Due To COVID 19
On
“IMPACT ON UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DUE TO COVID 19”
List of Contents
Introduction 4-5
Conclusion 20
References 21
Executive Summary
This report explains how the COVID-19 can impacts on global unemployment rate.
To prepare this report we used various online content and the knowledge gather
during the class lecture of the course. The COVID-19 has caused tremendous negative
consequences in the economy through threatening billions of livelihoods and
damaging the earning sources of billion people in the informal sector around the
globe. The aim of the study is to provide a comprehensive and demonstrative review
on the observed data and the potential impact of massive unemployment that will
arise in future after lock-down. The study based on secondary sources of information,
since it is very tough to find any quantitative study on the extent of the widening toll
on unemployment in the consequences of Corona virus. Tension is growing fast in the
economy due to the rapid-spread stage of outbreak of Covid-19. The study finds that
massive job losses will happen in both formal and informal sectors, as all of the sectors
e.g. RMG, Remittance, export and import, transportation, tourism, banking and
insurance, education are in vulnerable position because of the devastating effect of
Corona virus. This report would benefit the researchers, students and business
decision makers of different organizations.
Introduction:
Unemployment is one of the major economic problems. People who are considered
unemployed are those who are seeking work or laid off for more than a week. There
are many different reasons why a person could be unemployed. At present a new
problem has added is Covid-19. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that
the pandemic might push the global economy into the worst recession since the Great
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Depression of the 1930s, and far worse than the one triggered by the Global Financial
Crisis in 2008-09. As per IMF projections, the global economy would contract by 3.0
per cent in 2020, while the World Bank thinks the global economy will decline by 2.1-
3.9 per cent. Asper simulation we can easily declared that we face a great
unemployment problem. The Covid-19 pandemic has already spread to 208 countries
and regions of the world so far, altogether influencing the worldwide economy. Since
Corona Virus has been developing exponentially, even the developed and affluent
countries in the world have been not able to contain its spread. The Covid-19
pandemic has already spread to 208 countries and regions of the world so far,
altogether influencing the worldwide economy. Since Corona Virus has been
developing exponentially, even the developed and affluent countries in the world
have been not able to contain its spread. The first Corona virus patient was affirmed
in Bangladesh on 8th March, 2020 by the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control
and Research (IEDCR, 2020). Since Bangladesh is considered as one of most densely
populated countries in the world, it is believed that the novel corona virus will spread
over country quickly. Whole country is under the shade of grief that there is no scope
for maintaining social distance, as people have no minimum health consciousness.
Bangladesh will fall into an extremely troublesome circumstance if the country
remains under locked down for a more extended period. Here, above 22 percent of
people live under the poverty line. The unrivalled Covid-19 pandemic has created
turmoil in global trade, business, and education. Bangladesh is not out of this
pestilence. The entire of the global supply chain has been devastated due to the wide
spread of the corona virus pandemic globally that will run a great depression in the
world economy.
COVID-19 has been under global discussion from the beginning of 2020 due to its
unexpectedly rapid spreading around the world and influencing all spheres of
peoples’ lives. The new virus kick-up that started in China and its further penetration
to other parts of the world showed vulnerability of not only low and middle-income
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countries but also most of the developed countries' public health systems. Workers
being at home cause pauses in operations mainly in factories, which is leading to the
fall in production and decrease in GDP from the supply side, as well as since, people
stay at home, consumption also decreases mainly in (face-to-face) F2F industries, and
the increase in uncertainty observed due to the pandemic. The decrease in labor
supply will temporarily increase the price levels for goods and services for 20%.
Comparing to the crisis in 2008 where demand shock was dominant leading to
decrease in prices and GDP together, the coronavirus has caused both supply and
demand shocks but which of them is “salient is a key issue for understanding how the
coronavirus affects the economy”
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Demand and supply shocks cause a decrease in output and an increase in
unemployment. According to UN COVID 19 impact on unemployment costs for a
cutback of 200 million full-time workers, with the four out of five of the world’s
workforce being on full or partial lockdown.
The probability of a financial crisis is very high. The danger is expanding because of
helpless coordination, components just as there is almost no information on what sort
of instruments will be utilized to decrease the harm of the monetary emergency. In
the event that we see, the likenesses the 2008 and COVID-19 emergency have two basic
highlights as vulnerability and breakdown. Analysts and market analysts notice
arrangements and their impact on the economy during the monetary emergency in
2008 with the examinations of contrasts with the present plan. In any case, this stun is
very different. The confined macroeconomic capacity towards the combination of
flexibly, request and budgetary stun is forcing intense concern. The participation
between countries is without a doubt one of the most essential adjustment approaches
which additionally indirectly affects monetary manageability.
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GDP loss in 2020 from COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread with alarming speed, infecting millions and
bringing economic activity to a near-standstill as countries imposed tight restrictions
on movement to halt the spread of the virus. As the health and human toll grows, the
economic damage is already evident and represents the largest economic shock the
world has experienced in decades. The June 2020 Global Economic Prospects describes
both the immediate and near-term outlook for the impact of the pandemic and the
long-term damage it has dealt to prospects for growth. The baseline forecast envisions
a 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP in 2020, using market exchange rate weights—
the deepest global recession in decades, despite the extraordinary efforts of
governments to counter the downturn with fiscal and monetary policy support. Over
the longer horizon, the deep recessions triggered by the pandemic are expected to
leave lasting scars through lower investment, an erosion of human capital through
lost work and schooling, and fragmentation of global trade and supply linkages.
The crisis highlights the need for urgent action to cushion the pandemic’s health and
economic consequences, protect vulnerable populations, and set the stage for a lasting
recovery. For emerging market and developing countries, many of which face
daunting vulnerabilities, it is critical to strengthen public health systems, address the
challenges posed by informality, and implement reforms that will support strong and
sustainable growth once the health crisis abates.
Historic contraction of per capita income- The pandemic is expected to plunge most
countries into recession in 2020, with per capita income contracting in the largest
fraction of countries globally since 1870. Advanced economies are projected to shrink
7 percent. That weakness will spill over to the outlook for emerging market and
developing economies, who are forecast to contract by 2.5 percent as they cope with
their own domestic outbreaks of the virus. This would represent the weakest showing
by this group of economies in at least sixty years. Every region is subject to substantial
growth downgrades. East Asia and the Pacific will grow by a scant 0.5%. South Asia
will contract by 2.7%, Sub-Saharan Africa by 2.8%, Middle East and North Africa by
4.2%, Europe and Central Asia by 4.7%, and Latin America by 7.2%. These downturns
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are expected to reverse years of progress toward development goals and tip tens of
millions of people back into extreme poverty.
A possibility of even worse outcomes - Even this bleak outlook is subject to great
uncertainty and significant downside risks. The forecast assumes that the pandemic
recedes in such a way that domestic mitigation measures can be lifted by mid-year in
advanced economies and later in developing countries, that adverse global spillovers
ease during the second half of 2020, and that widespread financial crises are avoided.
This scenario would envision global growth reviving, albeit modestly, to 4.2% in 2021.
However, this view may be optimistic. Should COVID-19 outbreaks persist, should
restrictions on movement be extended or reintroduced, or should disruptions to
economic activity be prolonged, the recession could be deeper. Businesses might find
it hard to service debt, heightened risk aversion could lead to climbing borrowing
costs, and bankruptcies and defaults could result in financial crises in many countries.
Under this downside scenario, global growth could shrink by almost 8% in 2020.
Looking at the speed with which the crisis has overtaken the global economy may
provide a clue to how deep the recession will be. The sharp pace of global growth
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forecast downgrades points to the possibility of yet further downward revisions and
the need for additional action by policymakers in coming months to support economic
activity.
Bangladesh is a densely populated country with 170 million people. The majority
(85%) of the 60.83 million employed workers in the country work in the informal
sector. Out of this number, an overwhelming 92% are women. The Bangladeshi
economy is being significantly impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has led to
a decline in national and global demand for manufactured goods, particularly in the
garment sector. This will increase unemployment and deepen poverty. The urban
poor will be hardest hit. More than 20 million people live in the capital city, Dhaka,
which is now under lockdown.
Starvation defies lockdown-Like elsewhere, people in the lower income groups have
been the most affected by the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown. According to
the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, of the 25 million workers who work on wages and
salary, at least 10 million are dependent on their daily incomes. Despite the
unavailability of transport after the lockdown was declared, thousands of desperate
garment workers walked for miles to save their jobs. Many others just went out, driven
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by hunger and starvation, looking for food. The state-driven emergency food relief
activities are limited. And it has become extremely difficult for many activist
organizations to continue with their relief activities, starting from the second week of
the lockdown.
Starvation among a very large portion of the population shows that a decade-long
period of economic growth has failed to reach the Bangladesh’s most vulnerable
people. The government has declared an $8 billion stimulus package (£6.36bn) or
about 2.5% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). This will primarily go to
industries, particularly export-oriented ones, and it is not clear how this will benefit
the low-income groups, who are severely affected by the lockdown situation. Garment
factory owners will receive $590 million (£468.7m) in low-interest loans.
The additional pressure of the coronavirus pandemic has made things inevitable.
There is a lack of sufficient numbers of tests. Due to lack of testing the number of
people on record as testing positive doesn’t reflect the real situation. It seems that the
government is also trying to hide the real numbers. Activists are calling the
government policy a ‘No test-No Corona” policy.
Many doctors and nurses do not have personal protective equipment (PPE). A large
number of doctors do not feel safe and secure to work in hospitals. Some doctors are
being forced to treat suspected corona patients without any safety measures. An
increasing number of nurses have already been found infected with Covid-19.
The government has ordered hospitals around the country to prepare Isolation units
for corona patients. However, Bangladesh only has 500 ventilators and a few hundred
ICU beds, which are now mostly already occupied. Many hospitals are turning away
patients with Covid-19 symptoms.
Aid agencies are concerned that an outbreak there could overwhelm the poor medical
facilities. Almost 750,000 Rohingyas arrived in the camps following a military
crackdown in the neighboring state in 2017.
It is also the right time to re-connect with the critical academia and research
organizations around the world to comprehensively problematize the structural flaws
of the dominant growth-based development models, as well as to systematically
identify the limits to economic growth. It is the right time for NGOs and civil society
groups to build solid pressure on governments to adopt the alternative energy agenda
being pushed by movements into the forefront of national planning. As part of this,
we need to reconnect with both national and international activist networks to create
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coordinated efforts to build pressure on regional banks to withdraw finance from dirty
energy that destroys forests and natural habitats, and results in health problems and
pandemics.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a dramatic loss of human life worldwide and
presents an unprecedented challenge to public health, food systems and the world of
work. The economic and social disruption caused by the pandemic is devastating: tens
of millions of people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty, while the number of
undernourished people, currently estimated at nearly 690 million, could increase by
up to 132 million by the end of the year.
Here, we have discussed some new challenges caused by this pandemic which have
been given below:
This virus has also created decline in the number of available jobs in Bangladesh.
Around 68 percent of the people who had to stop working in urban areas of Dhaka
and Chattogram due to the pandemic have lost their jobs, according to a World Bank
report. A number of RMG workers in Bangladesh have already lost their job due to
the pandemic.
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According to the World Bank report, the income losses were widespread across the
two areas. In Dhaka and Chattogram, about 80 percent of wage earners and 94 percent
of business owners said their earnings were lower than usual.
Border closures, trade restrictions and confinement measures have been preventing
farmers from accessing markets, including for buying inputs and selling their
produce, and agricultural workers from harvesting crops, thus disrupting domestic
and international food supply chains and reducing access to healthy, safe and diverse
diets. The pandemic has decimated jobs and placed millions of livelihoods at risk. As
breadwinners lose jobs, fall ill and die, the food security and nutrition of millions of
women and men are under threat, with those in low-income countries, particularly
the most marginalized populations, which include small-scale farmers and
indigenous peoples, being hardest hit.
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Asia are projected to decline by 22.0 per cent to $109 billion in 2020, following the
growth of 6.1 per cent in 2019. The deceleration in remittances to the South Asian
region in 2020 is driven by the global economic slowdown due to the coronavirus
outbreak as well as oil price declines. Many people have come to their home country
and cannot go back to their work because of border closures and international flight
restrictions, many have lost their jobs due to the economic downturn in the countries
they worked. As a result, the number of unemployed people has been increased and
it will cause negative impact on the GNP of any country.
Millions of enterprises face an existential threat. Nearly half of the world’s 3.3 billion
global workforce are at risk of losing their livelihoods. Informal economy workers are
particularly vulnerable because the majority lack social protection and access to
quality health care and have lost access to productive assets. Without the means to
earn an income during lockdowns, many are unable to feed themselves and their
families. For most, no income means no food, or, at best, less food and less nutritious
food. As a result, people may suffer from malnutrition and various health problems.
High levels of uncertainty in the job market are generating stress and anxiety that may
further exacerbate health impacts associated with the pandemic, notably in mental
health. The COVID-19 outbreak is emotionally challenging for everyone, especially
for individuals who are already at risk (e.g., those suffering from depression). During
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and following the COVID-19 outbreak and the outcomes of isolation and quarantine,
we might see an increase in suicide ideation and behavior among at-risk populations.
Increasing Poverty
All of the job losses or reduction in salaries leads to the economic downturn and
increasing poverty specially for under developed, least developed or developing
countries. Income losses related to Covid-19 are likely to push a large share of the
population into poverty. Nearly half of the world’s 3.3 billion global workforce are at
risk of losing their livelihoods. This condition is worse specially in those low-income
countries, particularly the most marginalized populations, which include small-scale
farmers and indigenous peoples, being hardest hit.
Employment generation has been a big challenge for the past decade. Employment
elasticity of growth has been declining and remained low. If we look at the sector wise
allocation of labor in the world, employment in agricultural declined but remained
high. Manufacturing employment grew with RMG, but in recent years, it is falling.
Services sector jobs are mostly informal and low paid. Also, there is a very high degree
of informality in the labor market. We have seen low job creation even in the informal
sector. Furthermore, working conditions and lack of decent jobs are important issues.
We have seen growing rural-urban migration and international migration, which are
important contributors to poverty reduction and growth.
Covid-19 has put additional pressure on the labor market in the world. Due to
shutdown or slowdown of economic activities, many have lost their jobs. Many have
shifted to inferior jobs. We see that the major hit on employment is in the urban area.
All these are resulting in a rise in poverty, inequality and reverse migration from
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urban to the rural area. The reverse migration will add additional pressure on the rural
labor market. As non-crop and nonfarm economic activities and related employment
opportunities are limited in the rural areas, unless major economic reforms take place
in the rural areas in terms of infrastructural and financing supports, many of these
returnee people will not be in a position to do something productive in the rural areas.
The situation may get worsen with the likely influx of returning migrants from
overseas.
The lockdown is attacking all groups of people in the world either physically or
mentally. No employed or unemployed person will come out better from it. The
lockdown may save us from the infection, but the cost will be a very big loss of
livelihood. This has already led us into a global recession. In many cases, the loss of
livelihood may be irretrievable, the loss could increase vulnerability to health
problems far beyond coronavirus.
The World Bank forecasted that South Asia might post 1.80 per cent to 2.80 per cent
GDP growth which is still a better scenario than some other regions. On the contrary,
employment might shrink as the pandemic continues. It may also create a frail labor
force, which will push the development goals far-off to reach.
It is predicted that the pandemic will increase the number of less educated
unemployed people. According to ILO, Bangladesh has more than 85.0 per cent
informal labor who are extremely vulnerable. The hardest hit of the impact would
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involve marginalized low-income people, many of whom are daily wage-earners and
self-employed. Recently SANEM researchers ran simulations, which revealed that
with a negative income shock of 25.0 per cent, the overall poverty rate would be 40.9
per cent, meaning that another 20.4 per cent of the population or 33.0 million people
would plunge into poverty. Besides, the closure of educational institutions is affecting
approximately 37.0 million students across the country and if it lasts for a longer
period it will engender far-reaching economic and social impacts. While the
opportunity for skills development is already shrunk for the youth, the pandemic has
made the whole situation even more difficult. It will narrow the upcoming
employment opportunity for the fresh graduates. The current massive economic
disruption is hurting the 20.0 million youth labor force of Bangladesh.
However, this is not any conventional crisis that will heal from the exact prescriptions
from the previous crisis, but the government must enforce unemployment insurance
for most of the people. They should find out ways to work with entrepreneurs and
industries to protect the job of millions vulnerable and unprotected workers. Setting
or expanding systems to enroll workers into unemployment insurance schemes with
varying levels of contributions. Job losses are inevitable and indeed somewhat
necessary to recover the economy. Unemployment will create an unexpected income
shock. Unfortunately, private insurance for unemployment is rare in fear of the
adverse selection problem. Consumption reduction arising out of unemployment not
only reduces the welfare of the individual but also reduces the aggregate demand of
the economy. Therefore, the government could provide short-term income support on
a large scale to secure the jobseekers through unemployment insurance that may serve
as public insurance. The unemployment benefits can help the unemployed to maintain
their consumption level and promote social welfare.
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resources, such as food banks, may be available to help with meeting basic needs. In
addition, in the United States, you may be able to get affordable health insurance
through HealthCare.gov if you've lost your health insurance coverage.
Unemployment help may also be available. In the United States, you may also be able
to receive pandemic unemployment assistance if you can't work because of the
COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, to find groups of individuals needing training, re-
skilling and up-skilling because there will be large groups of individuals whose
employment prospects have been damaged by the pandemic. Re-skilling will be an
essential part of the policy offerings needed to get them into employment in decent
and stable jobs, and to avoid long-term career impediment.
Though the pandemic has caused many adverse effects on our social, economic and
public health, we can see this as a new challenge and can recognize it as an
opportunity to build back better. In order to minimize the social and economic losses
we may go through the following recommendations:
• Different forms of support can be cash transfers, child allowances and healthy
school meals, shelter and food relief initiatives, support for employment
retention and recovery, and financial relief for businesses, including micro,
small and medium-sized enterprises. In designing and implementing such
measures it is essential that governments work closely with employers and
workers.
• We need to develop long-term sustainable strategies to address the challenges
facing the health and agri-food sectors. Priority should be given to addressing
underlying food security and malnutrition challenges, tackling rural poverty,
in particular through more and better jobs in the rural economy, extending
social protection to all, facilitating safe migration pathways and promoting the
formalization of the informal economy.
• The government could provide short-term income support on a large scale to
secure the jobseekers through unemployment insurance that may serve as
public insurance. The unemployment benefits can help the unemployed to
maintain their consumption level and promote social welfare.
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The stimulus measures which are given above mostly depend on the use of
appropriate financing options, proper management so that sectors who are affected
receive the support. There should be proper monitoring and accountability to ensure
that the money is spent on the right people. Now is the time for global solidarity and
support, especially with the most vulnerable in our societies, particularly in the
emerging and developing world. Only together we can overcome the intertwined
health and social and economic impacts of the pandemic and prevent its escalation
into a protracted humanitarian and food security catastrophe, with the potential loss
of already achieved development gains.
Conclusion
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Reference:
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9. https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/news/68pc-lost-jobs-dhaka-and-
ctg-1968641
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