EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

Definition of E(X), the expected value of X:

n
E ( X ) = x1 p1 + ... + x n pn = ∑ x i pi
i =1

The expected value of a random variable, also known as its population mean, is the
weighted average of its possible values, the weights being the probabilities attached to the
values.
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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

Definition of E(X), the expected value of X:

n
E ( X ) = x1 p1 + ... + x n pn = ∑ x i pi
i =1

Note that the sum of the probabilities must be unity, so there is no need to divide by the
sum of the weights.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

This sequence shows how the expected value is calculated, first in abstract and then with
the random variable defined in the first sequence. We begin by listing the possible values
of X.
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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

Next we list the probabilities attached to the different possible values of X.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

Then we define a column in which the values are weighted by the corresponding
probabilities.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

We do this for each value separately.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

Here we are assuming that n, the number of possible values, is equal to 11, but it could be
any number.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

The expected value is the sum of the entries in the third column.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

The random variable X defined in the previous sequence could be any of the integers from 2
to 12 with probabilities as shown.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

X could be equal to 2 with probability 1/36, so the first entry in the calculation of the
expected value is 2/36.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

The probability of x being equal to 3 was 2/36, so the second entry is 6/36.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X)

Similarly for the other 9 possible values.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X) 252/36

To obtain the expected value, we sum the entries in this column.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

xi pi xi pi xi pi xi pi
x1 p1 x1 p1 2 1/36 2/36
x2 p2 x2 p2 3 2/36 6/36
x3 p3 x3 p3 4 3/36 12/36
x4 p4 x4 p4 5 4/36 20/36
x5 p5 x5 p5 6 5/36 30/36
x6 p6 x6 p6 7 6/36 42/36
x7 p7 x7 p7 8 5/36 40/36
x8 p8 x8 p8 9 4/36 36/36
x9 p9 x9 p9 10 3/36 30/36
x10 p10 x10 p10 11 2/36 22/36
x11 p11 x11 p11 12 1/36 12/36
Σ xi pi = E(X) 252/36 = 7

The expected value turns out to be 7. Actually, this was obvious anyway. We saw in the
previous sequence that the distribution is symmetrical about 7.

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 EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE

Alternative notation for E(X):

n
E ( X ) = x1 p1 + ... + x n pn = ∑ x i pi = µ X
i =1

Very often the expected value of a random variable is represented by µ, the Greek m. If
there is more than one random variable, their expected values are differentiated by adding
subscripts to µ.
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Copyright Christopher Dougherty 2016.

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2015.12.17