India Midcaps

RESULT UPDATE

BLUE DART EXPRESS

Earnings erosion continues
India Equity Research| Logistics

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) disappointing numbers trend, which began six EDELWEISS RATINGS

quarters ago, sustained in Q2FY20 as well. Poor margin of 4% (before Ind Absolute Rating REDUCE

AS 116 accounting impact) dented EBITDA and PAT 21% and 40% YoY, Investment Characteristics Value
respectively. Sustained investment in road express is denting margin,
while sales have remained flat, YoY and QoQ. Expansion in road express
MARKET DATA (R: BLDT.BO, B: BDE IN)
– a high-growth segment – is key, but its contribution is too small to
CMP : INR 2,407
swing the pendulum. Factoring sustained earnings disappointment and
Target Price : INR 1,700
Ind AS 116 accounting impact, we revise down FY20/21E EPS 35%/22%.
52-week range (INR) : 3,700 / 2,149
Our thesis that BDE will go through an extended downgrade cycle is
Share in issue (mn) : 23.7
playing out. It is trading at an expensive PE of 42x FY21E earnings. At an
M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 57 / 805
RoE of 25–30%, it must deliver 16% EPS CAGR over the next five–seven
Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE (‘000) : 7.5
years amid a tough environment to justify its valuation compared with
sub-15% on an average across cycles. Retain ‘REDUCE’ with revised TP of
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
INR1,700 (INR,1975 earlier).
Current Q1FY20 Q4FY19
Promoters * 75.0 75.0 75.0
Yet another quarter bites the dust 9.4 5.0 5.2
MF's, FI's & BKs
BDE posted an extremely weak Q2FY20 with EBITDA plunging 22% YoY and PAT 40%
FII's 4.5 4.5 4.5
YoY (excluding Ind AS 116vaccounting impact). Profitability (ex Ind AS 116 EBITDA
Others 11.1 15.5 15.3
margin) has been poor for five–six quarters at 4–5% compared with 9–10% historically. * Promoters pledged shares : NIL
The company has been investing and operationalising various road express routes to (% of share in issue)
expand its road network from 17,000 pin codes to 21,000. We, therefore, believe
many road routes are operating at low utilisation, leading to poor operating margin. PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
BSE Midcap Stock over
Stock
Index Index
Ground express traction good, but inadequate to swing pendulum
While investments in ground express are opportune, we reiterate it makes up only 22– 1 month 0.8 2.3 1.5
25% of BDE’s total sales; the segment is, therefore, not large enough to meaningfully 3 months 4.1 (2.0) (6.0)
lift growth group-wide. Our FY20 estimates factor in standalone margin improvement 12 months 3.3 (10.5) (13.8)
to about 9%, which seems to be a tall ask given the current margin trend.

Outlook and valuation: Rich; retain ‘REDUCE’

We reiterate ‘REDUCE’ on BDE based on structurally low growth in the air express
category. In addition, the stock’s expensive valuation of 42x FY21E PE leaves little
room for optimism. We value BDE on 30x PE based on its long-term EPS growth
expectation of 10–12% and RoE of about 30%. We are trimming FY20E and FY21E
earnings 35% and 22%, respectively, and cutting TP to INR1,700.

Financials (INR mn)

Year to March Q2FY20 Q2FY19 % Chg Q1FY20 % Chg FY19 FY20E FY21E Alok Deshpande
+91 22 6620 3163
Net revenues 8,001 7,979 0.3 7,866 1.7 31,655 34,560 38,445 alok.deshpande@edelweissfin.com
EBITDA 607 402 50.9 446 36.2 1,735 2,947 3,861
Sameer Chuglani
Adjusted Profit 140 213 (34.4) 46 204.8 876 1,117 1,708
+91 22 4040 7415
Adjusted Diluted EPS 5.9 9.0 (34.4) 1.9 204.8 36.9 47.1 72.0 sameer.chuglani@edelweissfin.com
Diluted P/E (x) 62.3 41.8
ROAE (%) 14.9 19.9 October 31, 2019

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com,

Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited
Logistics
Chart 1: Sales and YoY growth: Q2FY20 a weak quarter
10,000 32.0

8,000 25.0

6,000

(INR mn)
18.0

(%)
4,000 11.0

2,000 4.0

0 (3.0)

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20
Q3FY19

Q2FY20
Sales (LHS) Growth (RHS)

Chart 2: EBITDA and margin trends (Ex Ind AS 116 accounting impact
950 14.0

800 11.6
(INR mn)

650 9.2

(%)
500 6.8

350 4.4

200 2.0
Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q2FY20
Q4FY18

Q1FY20
EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)
Source: Company; Edelweiss research

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 Blue Dart Express Ltd

Financial snapshot (INR mn)

Year to March Q2FY20 Q2FY19 % change Q1FY20 % change YTD20 FY20E FY21E
Net revenues 8,001 7,979 0.3 7,866 1.7 15,866 34,560 38,445
Gross profit 2,657 2,594 2.4 2,564 3.6 5,221 11,889 13,610
Other expenses 583 801 (27.2) 655 (10.9) 1,238 3,007 3,345
Operating expenses 5,344 5,385 (0.8) 5,301 0.8 10,645 22,672 24,836
Total expenditure 7,394 7,577 (2.4) 7,420 (0.4) 14,814 31,614 34,584
EBITDA 607 402 50.9 446 36.2 1,052 2,947 3,861
Depreciation 371 111 234.9 338 9.8 708 1,474 1,502
EBIT 236 292 (19.0) 108 118.6 344 1,472 2,359
Interest 84 40 111.9 83 1.1 167 345 345
Other income 38 47 (18.3) 43 (12.4) 81 187 264
Add: Exceptional items
Profit before tax 190 299 (36.2) 69 177.6 259 1,314 2,278
Provision for taxes 51 85 (40.9) 23 122.5 73 197 569
Reported net profit 140 213 (34.4) 46 204.8 186 1,117 1,708
Adjusted Profit 140 213 (34.4) 46 204.8 186 1,117 1,708
Diluted shares (mn) 24 24 24 24 24 24
Adjusted Diluted EPS 5.9 9.0 (34.4) 1.9 204.8 7.8 47.1 72.0
Diluted P/E (x) - - - - 62.3 41.8
EV/EBITDA (x) - - - - 14.8 11.6
ROAE (%) - - - - 14.9 19.9

As % of net revenues
Employee cost 18.3 17.4 18.6 18.5 17.2 16.7
Other expenses 7.3 10.0 8.3 7.8 8.7 8.7
EBITDA 7.6 5.0 5.7 6.6 8.5 10.0
Reported net profit 1.7 2.7 0.6 1.2 3.2 4.4

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Logistics

Company Description
Blue Dart Express Ltd. is engaged in the business of integrated air and ground transportation
and distribution of time sensitive packages to various destinations, primarily within India.
The Company provides courier and express services. The Company's technology-based
business offerings include InternetDart, ShopTrack, PackTrack, MobileDart, ShipDart and
ImageDart. The Company's services include Domestic Priority, Dart Apex, Dart Surfaceline,
Temparature Control Logistics (TCL), Airport-to-Airport, International Services, Charters,
Interline, Smart Box, Express Pallet and Regional Services. The Company offers delivery of
consignments to approximately 35k locations in India and serves approximately 220
countries and territories across the world.

Investment Theme
Blue Dart Express (BDE) is the market leader in India’s air express market with 50% plus
share. However, we expect the stock to face challenges on growth, profitability and
valuations as: 1) the air express category continues to lose share to road express; 2) BDE will
continue to face challenges in sustaining margin given the challenging cost environment;
and 3) it is likely to remain in an earnings downgrade cycle given the high expectations built
by consensus.

Key Risks
Our core thesis is that road express will continue to gain market share from air express. As a
result, we assume air express segment in India to post 6% CAGR. If the segment growth is
more than 7%, then it poses upside risks to our estimates and TP and hence a risk to our
thesis.

Our estimates and target price are based on oil price assumptions which are around the
current level. Any sharp fall in oil price will create upside risks to our estimates and thesis.

Historically, domestic network operating costs have structurally risen. But, a fall in these
costs will pose upside risks to our thesis and margin assumptions.

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 Blue Dart Express Ltd

Financial Statements
Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn)
Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Macro Net revenue 27,992 31,744 35,501 39,416
GDP(Y-o-Y %) 7.2 6.8 6.8 7.1 Gross profit 13,204 14,082 12,830 14,581
Inflation (Avg) 3.6 3.4 4.0 4.5 Employee costs 5,845 6,984 5,935 6,404
Repo rate (exit rate) 6.0 6.3 5.3 5.0 Other Expenses 3,846 4,244 3,007 3,345
USD/INR (Avg) 64.5 70.0 72.0 72.0 Operating expenses 14,789 17,662 22,672 24,836
Sector Total operating expenses 24,480 28,890 31,614 34,584
Air express industry (UDS bn) 2 2 2 2 EBITDA 3,513 2,855 3,888 4,832
Express industry size (UDS bn) 4 4 5 5 Depreciation 1,145 1,279 2,480 2,778
Company EBIT 2,368 1,576 1,407 2,054
Consolidated sales growth (%) 4 13 13 11 Less: Interest Expense 405 427 581 553
Total tonnes carried in weight growth (%) 9 8 7 8 Add: Other income 206.7 192.4 186.87 263.86
Average Weight of every shipment (kg) 4 3 3 3 Profit Before Tax 2,170 1,341 1,014 1,766
Express/Courier Rates per kg (INR) 40 42 43 44 Less: Provision for Tax 723 444 107 416
Consolidated EBITDA margin (%) 13 9 9 10 Reported Profit 1,447 898 907 1,350
Gross margins (%) 47.2 44.4 36.1 37.0 Adjusted Profit 1,447 898 907 1,350
Opex (%) 13.7 13.4 10.2 10.4 Shares o /s (mn) 24 24 24 24
Net borrowings (INR mn) 1,774 2,275 1,812 955 Adjusted Basic EPS 61.0 37.8 38.2 56.9
Receivable (days) 51 53 53 59 Diluted shares o/s (mn) 24 24 24 24
Payable days 49 53 54 54 Adjusted Diluted EPS 61.0 37.8 38.2 56.9
Cash conversion cycle 2 (1) (2) 5 Adjusted Cash EPS 109.2 91.7 142.7 174.0
Dividend per share (DPS) 15.0 12.5 11.8 18.0
Dividend Payout Ratio(%) 24.6 33.0 30.8 31.6

Common size metrics

Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Gross margin 47.2 44.4 36.1 37.0
Operating expenses 13.7 13.4 8.5 8.5
Interest Expense 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.4
EBITDA margins 12.5 9.0 11.0 12.3
EBIT margins 8.5 5.0 4.0 5.2
Net Profit margins 5.2 2.8 2.6 3.4

Growth ratios (%)

Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Revenues 4.1 13.4 11.8 11.0
EBITDA 2.8 (18.7) 36.2 24.3
Adjusted Profit 3.5 (38.0) 1.0 48.9
EPS 3.5 (38.0) 1.0 48.9

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 Logistics

Balance sheet (INR mn) Cash flow metrics

As on 31st March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Share capital 238 238 238 238 Operating cash flow 3,167 2,433 3,920 4,353
Reserves & Surplus 5,081 5,540 6,119 6,988 Financing cash flow (1,519) 792 (2,029) (1,467)
Shareholders' funds 5,318 5,777 6,356 7,226 Investing cash flow (1,898) (2,800) (1,913) (1,836)
Long term borrowings 3,087 4,250 3,850 3,450 Net cash Flow (250) 425 (22) 1,050
Short term borrowings 974 712 - - Capex (1,974) (2,869) (2,100) (2,100)
Total Borrowings 4,061 4,962 3,850 3,450 Dividend paid (428) (358) (336) (515)
Long Term Liabilities 207 219 219 219
Def. Tax Liability (net) (387) (513) (513) (513) Profitability and efficiency ratios
Sources of funds 9,199 10,445 9,912 10,382 Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Gross Block 6,956 8,931 11,031 13,131 ROAE (%) 30.1 16.2 14.9 19.9
Net Block 4,648 5,885 5,505 4,827 ROACE (%) 27.8 17.6 15.2 22.2
Capital work in progress 593 526 526 526 ROA 15.7 9.1 8.9 13.3
Intangible Assets 934 1,039 1,039 1,039 Debtors Days 51 53 53 59
Total net fixed assets 6,175 7,450 7,070 6,392 Payable Days 49 53 54 54
Cash and Equivalents 2,287 2,687 2,665 3,715 Cash Conversion Cycle 2 (1) (1) 5
Inventories 213 260 273 297 Current Ratio 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3
Sundry Debtors 4,223 4,910 5,418 6,026 Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.2 1.7 1.0 0.7
Loans & Advances 10 9 9 9 Adjusted Debt/Equity 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5
Other Current Assets 666 765 765 765 Net Debt/Equity 0.3 0.4 0.2 -
Current Assets (ex cash) 5,111 5,945 6,465 7,098 Interest Coverage Ratio 5.8 3.7 2.4 3.7
Trade payable 3,684 4,343 4,994 5,529 LT debt /Cap empl. (%) 33.6 40.7 38.8 33.2
Other Current Liab 1,756 2,812 2,812 2,812 Debt / Cap employed (%) 44.1 47.5 38.8 33.2
Total Current Liab 5,440 7,155 7,806 8,341
Net Curr Assets-ex cash (328) (1,210) (1,341) (1,243) Operating ratios
Uses of funds 9,199 10,445 9,912 10,382 Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
BVPS (INR) 224.1 243.5 267.9 304.5 Total Asset Turnover 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.9
Fixed Asset Turnover 5.3 5.1 5.3 6.4
Free cash flow (INR mn) Equity Turnover 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.8
Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Reported Profit 1,447 898 907 1,350 Valuation parameters
Add: Depreciation 1,145 1,279 2,480 2,778 Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Interest (Net of Tax) 271 286 389 370 Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) 61.0 37.8 38.2 56.9
Others 698 258 275 (242) Y-o-Y growth (%) 3.5 (38.0) 1.0 48.9
Less: Changes in WC 394 287 131 (98) Adjusted Cash EPS (INR) 109.2 91.7 142.7 174.0
Operating cash flow 3,167 2,433 3,920 4,353 EV / Sales (x) 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4
Less: Capex (1,974) (2,869) (2,100) (2,100) EV / EBITDA (x) 0.5 0.8 0.3 (0.1)
Free Cash Flow 1,194 (435) 1,820 2,253

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 Blue Dart Express Ltd

Additional Data
Directors Data
Balfour Manuel CEO Malcolm Monteiro Director
Michael McMahon Director Sharad Upasani Director
Tulsi Mirchandaney Director Narendra Sarda Director
Aneel Gambhir Director Yogesh Dhingra Director
Subramanian Ramachandran Additional Director Kavita Nair Director
Kenneth Allen Additional Director

Auditors - S.R. Batliboi & Associates LLP

*as per last available data

Holding Top -10

Perc. Holding Perc. Holding
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance 3.8 Bright Star Investments 3.4
LIC 2.6 Matthews International Capital 2.1
Vanguard Group 0.8 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group 0.7
L&T Mutual Fund 0.5 BlackRock 0.5
Dimensional Fund Advisors 0.5 SBI Funds Management 0.4
*as per last available data

Bulk Deals
Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price

No Data Available
*as per last available data

Insider Trades
Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded

No Data Available
*as per last available data

7 Edelweiss Securities Limited

 Logistics

Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.
Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: research@edelweissfin.com
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN

ADITYA
DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES
Aditya Narain LIMITED, ou=SERVICE,
2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c48
a8e0c89e548e5001b4f8141cf423fd58c0
Head of Research 7b02, postalCode=400011,

NARAIN
st=MAHARASHTRA,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c2
7990f20bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c3009
aditya.narain@edelweissfin.com 2792c20, cn=ADITYA NARAIN
Date: 2019.10.31 22:45:28 +05'30'

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Logistics

Blue Dart Express Ltd, Container Corporation of India Ltd, Future Supply Chain, Mahindra Logistics Ltd, TCI Express Ltd, Transport Corporation of India,
VRL Logistics Ltd
`
Recent Research
Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos
31-Oct-19 Container Volume languishes; market 588 Hold
Corporation share loss continues;
Result Update
14-Oct-19 Logistics Q2FY20: A heavy haul;
Result Preview
23-Sep-19 Logistics Tax cut tailwind: Top picks
more attractive;
Sector Update

Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap

Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe Rating Interpretation

Buy Hold Reduce Total Rating Expected to

Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period
* 1stocks under review
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period
Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11

One year price chart

4,000

3,600

3,200
(INR)

2,800

2,400

2,000
Dec-18

Aug-19

Oct-19
Oct-18

Apr-19

May-19
Nov-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Sep-19
Jun-19
Mar-19

Jul-19

Blue Dart Express

8 Edelweiss Securities Limited

 Blue Dart Express Ltd
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Logistics
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10 Edelweiss Securities Limited

 Blue Dart Express Ltd

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