Date: Oct 29, 2019

Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

TCI Express

Leader in surface logistics in India Asset light model, Robust Balance sheet and Strong
Expansion would aid in further growth in revenue Return Ratios
Revenues spread across ~2,00,000 customers and well- Estimate 15% revenue and 26% EPS CAGR over FY19-21E
diversified revenue stream

INDUSTRY BUYING RANGE

Logistics Rs. 651 - 730

CMP SEQUENTIAL TARGETS

Rs. 718.5 Rs. 815 - 906 Rs. 590

RECOMMEND TIME HORIZON

ed ed

Buy at CMP and Add on declines 4 quarters

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

TCI Express- At the Forefront of the Evolution of Logistics Industry

India’s Logistics sector is going through a transformation on back of reforms like GST and government’s
infrastructure initiatives like dedicated freight corridors, multi-modal logistics parks and waterway developments.
HDFC Scrip Code TCIEXPEQNR TCI express is a leader in surface logistic and has strong presence across the value chain – especially in fast growing
BSE Code 540212 segments of organised retail and third party logistics. Its recent expansion, diversified customer base and revenue
streams will help it post robust growth in revenue and earnings.
NSE Code TCIEXP
Bloomberg TCIEXP:IN Company profile:
TCI Express founded in the year 1996 as a division of the Transport Corporation of India (TCI). The company demerged
CMP Oct 25, 2019 718.5 from the TCI as a separate entity in the year 2016. TCI Express services include Surface logistics, Domestic and
Equity Capital (cr) 7.7 International Air logistics, E-Com logistics, Priority logistics and Reverse logistics, which spread across multiple industry
segments such as Automobile spare parts, Pharmaceuticals, retail, e-commerce, Telecom, and 50% Revenue
Face Value (Rs) 2
contributor are SMEs.
Eq- Share O/S(cr) 3.84
Investment Rationale
Market Cap(Rscr) 2756
Book Value (Rs) 69.74  Strong growth
 Asset light model
Avg.52 Wk Volume 15777  Improving operating efficiency
52 Week High 767.70  Leadership position in surface logistics
 Robust network infrastructure
52 Week Low 530.00
 Diversified customer base
Red flag Price Level 590.00  Robust Financials
PCG Risk Rating * Yellow
View and valuation:

Shareholding Pattern % (Sept 30, 2019) TCI Express has a leadership position in surface logistics in India, which contributes to 86% of the revenue of the
company. Company also has asset light business model leased out 5000 trucks through ~1500 vendors. If the company
Promoters 66.89
owns these trucks then the company has to make capex of Rs 300-400cr.Company has a nationwide presence with
Institutions 9.97 ~40,000 locations served, 700+ branches, 28 sorting centers (10 owned and remaining leased), etc. In addition, 5000
Non Institutions 23.14 leased vehicles support network.
Total 100 The company has a strong balance sheet, robust return ratios such as RoE/RoCE/RoA at 30%/36.5%/26% in FY20E.We
expect that the company will get benefits from the new expansion, diversified customers, diversified revenue stream,
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYST which would lead to 15% CAGR in top-line and 26% EPS CAGR over FY19-21E.
Jimit Zaveri Moreover, recent tax reform would also boost the profitability for TCI Express, as the company was paying ~35% taxes
Jimit.zaveri@hdfcsec.com in the previous years and which will come down to 25-26%. We recommend BUY at CMP of Rs 718.5 and add on dips to
Rs651 with sequential targets of Rs.815 and Rs.906 over the next 3-4 quarters. We have assigned 30x FY21E to derive
TP of Rs.906. Page 3
 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Key Highlights Company Background

The company provides services for Surface Logistics and Air Logistics in B2B and Last Mile Logistics in the B2C
division. The company is a leader in door-to-door logistics covering around 99% of districts in India with a global
 Leader in surface logistics in India presence in 202 countries.
 Its services include Surface Logistics,
Domestic and International Air The company provides value-added services such as collection on delivery for B2C, Sunday / Holiday delivery services,
Logistics, E-Com Logistics, Priority customized solutions as per the customer specification, etc. The company is a market leader in surface logistics,
Logistics and Reverse Logistics, spread follows a hub and spoke model with 700+ branches, 28 sorting centre, 5000 containerized vehicles, ~2,00,000
across multiple industry segments such
customers, etc.
as Automobiles spare-parts,
Pharmaceuticals, retail, e-commerce.
Shipment process flow
 Company has ~2,00,000+ customers
and not a single client contributes to
more than 1% of revenue

 Company’s operating margins are

showing strong improvement, EBITDA
margin has grown 350bps to 11.9%,
PAT margin expanded 210bps to 7.1%
in the last two years, and we expect it
to improve further over the next few
years.

 Company has a strong balance sheet

and robust return ratios such as RoE /
RoCE /RoA at 30%/42%/26% in FY19.

 Moreover, recent tax reforms would

further boost profits. We estimate
~15% CAGR in revenue to Rs. 1353 Cr
and ~26% CAGR in PAT to Rs. 115 Cr by
FY21.

 We recommend BUY at CMP of Rs

718.5 and add on dips to Rs651 with
sequential targets of Rs.815 and
Rs.906 over the next 3-4 quarters.

Source: Company, HDFC Sec

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Product mix
 Surface logistics
The Company offers solutions for customer’s logistics needs by providing doorstep pickup and delivery. The company’s offering includes Logistics pickup
and delivery in India at 40,000+ Locations, Cash on delivery, Day-definite delivery, Sunday and holiday deliveries, etc.
 Domestic Air Logistics
Company offers 24x7 customer services as well as time-sensitive logistics deliveries. Company makes deliveries to all metro cities in 24 hours, mini-
metros, and A-class cities in 48 hours.
 International Air Logistics
Company offers the time-sensitive movement of small packages (samples) and Commercial shipments from all major ports of India. The company’s service
extends to around 208 countries across the globe. The company provides services such as free 7 days storage facility at origin locations in our own sorting
centers for export consignments, Pickup from Exporter’s premises arranged for port-to-port shipments, etc.
 Reverse Logistics
Company offers reverse logistics services in an efficient and economical manner by way of transfer of goods from the location of the end-user to that of
the manufacturer. Other services such as pickup from anywhere in India from 3,000+ points, Centralized monitoring, etc.
 E-Commerce
The Company offers in-city distribution of goods through GPS enabled fleet of Route Vehicles, which facilitates optimum on-time delivery.

Source: Company, HDFC Sec

Source: Company, HDFC Sec

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Clientele

Source: Company, HDFC Sec

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Investment Rationale

 Strong growth
Post demerger in the year 2016, Enhanced management focus backed by adequate investments have seen healthy CAGR of 17%/39% in Revenue/PAT
during FY17-19.
 Asset light model
Company has leased out ~5,000 trucks through ~1500 vendors. If the company owns these trucks then the company has to make capex of Rs. 300-
400cr.Rather than spending on vehicles, the company spends on the sorting centers. Sorting center costs ~Rs 30-40cr and this improves return ratios.
Strategy reduces the risk such as 1) not more than 3-4 vehicles to be sourced through same vendor, 2) payment made on km-run basis to vendors, without
any linkage to utilization levels/tonnage carried; 3) replacement of vehicle every 6-7 years with a strict due diligence of vendors financial standing and 4)
security deposit before entering into any contract.
 Improving operating efficiency
Operating performance of the company has improved significantly in FY19. EBITDA margin has grown 350bps to 11.9%, PAT margin expanded 210bps to
7.1% in the last two years, and we expect it to improve further over the next few years. As per the management, company is working on margins
improvement and estimated to reach ~9% levels on PAT margin. The company’s plans to increase its owned sorting center compared to the leased sorting
center expands further margins due to lowers rental expenses.
 Leadership position in surface logistics
Surface logistics contributes 86% of the revenue of the company. Company caters to large part of Indian districts with close to ~18000+ pin codes whereas
Blue dart caters to ~17,700 and Gati KWE caters to ~14,500 of pin codes.
 Diversified customer base
Company has ~2,00,000+ customers and not a single client contributes to more than 1% of revenue.
 Robust Financials
The Company has grown its revenue at 17% CAGR and net profit at 39% CAGR in FY17-19. TCI Express has robust return ratios (RoE/RoCE) of (42%/30.7%)
and RoA of 26% in FY19.

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Industry
Indian logistics industry is also highly fragmented, characterized by the presence of numerous unorganized or regional players, which accounts for ~90% of the
industry. Indian logistics industry size is ~Rs.25,000 cr as on FY19.

Source: Deloitte, HDFC Sec

Surface logistics continues to grow compared to the air logistics due to the divergence in the cost of booking a logistics shipment. Air logistics is comparatively 4-5x
more expensive than surface logistics. Cost of the bulkier shipment is higher in air transport compared to the surface transport, which also increases an attractiveness
of the surface logistics. State and central governments has made robust investments to upgrade road networks such as bharatmala. This improves growth of surface
logistics. In addition, major value-added services which fuel growth of Indian logistics industry such as door-to-door delivery of shipments in a time-sensitive manner,
with real-time shipment tracking facilities.

Large players have pan-India networks of sorting centers and branches, better infrastructure with better technology, which serves as a key advantage over regional
players. In addition, it expected that large national players would gain market share from the regional players over a period.

Elimination of inter-state check-posts under the GST norms has improved average truck speed, higher productivity, increased demand for grade-A warehouses, and a
surge in demand for value-added services. This should help further lower the turnaround time for surface logistics players. All consignments worth over Rs 50,000
requires e-way bills, which have, increases a compliance burden for the unorganized players. The government recently granted infrastructure status to the logistics
industry and created a separate division for it within the Ministry of Commerce. This expected to ease access to financing for logistics companies.

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Leadership position in surface logistics in India with asset light model; recommend buy with TP of Rs.906

TCI Express has a leadership position in surface logistics in India, which contributes to 86% of the revenue of the company. Company also has asset light business
model leased out 5000 trucks through ~1500 vendors. If the company owns these trucks then the company has to make capex of Rs 300-400cr.

Company has a nationwide presence with ~40,000 locations served, 700+ branches, 28 sorting centers (10 owned and remaining leased), etc. In addition, 5000
leased vehicles support network. The company has the plan to expand branches to ~800 till the end of FY20 and reach ~2000 branches in the next 2 - 3 years. The
company’s plans to increase its owned sorting center compared to the leased sorting center expands further margins due to lowers rental expenses.

The company has a strong balance sheet, robust return ratios such as RoE/RoCE/RoA at 30%/36.5%/26% in FY20E.We expect that the company will get benefits
from the new expansion, diversified customers, diversified revenue stream, which would lead to 15% CAGR in top-line and 26% EPS CAGR over FY19-21E.
Moreover, recent tax reform would also boost the profitability for TCI Express, as the company was paying ~35% taxes in the previous years and which will come
down to 25-26%. We recommend BUY at CMP of Rs 718.5 and add on dips to Rs651 with sequential targets of Rs.815 and Rs.906 over the next 3-4 quarters. We
have assigned 30x FY21E to derive TP of Rs.906.

Key Risks

 ~90% of the industry dominated by the unorganized players which creates a competitive pressure
 A slowdown in the economy affects the growth of the company and also, the capacity utilization of the company

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Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Revenue Trend
EBITDA and EBITDA Margin over FY19-21E
1600 18.0 18.5 20
15.8 200 12.3 14
1400 12.0
1200 13.4 11.6 15 12
150 11.9 10
1000 8.0
Rs Cr
10.5 8

Rs Cr
800 10
100 8.4
600 8.2 6
400 5 4

1027

1146

1358
663 50

752

887
200 2
55 63 93 122 137 166
0 0 0 0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA Margin%

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Return Ratios
PAT trend over FY19-21E

140 45.0 41.1 42.1

116 40.0 35.8 37.0
120 34.8
35.0 31.8 30.7 30.5
93 29.5
100 30.0 26.4

Percentage
80 73 25.0
Rs Cr

58 20.0
60
38 15.0
40 28 10.0
20 5.0
0 0.0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

RoE RoCE
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Income Statement Balance Sheet

(Rs Cr) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E As at March FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Net Revenue 750 885 1024 1142 1353 SOURCE OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 13.4 18.0 15.8 11.6 18.5 Share Capital 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7
Operating Expenses 688 794 905 1009 1192 Reserves 153 199 260 337 432
EBITDA 62 91 119 133 160 Money Received 0 0 0 0 0
Growth (%) 15.9 46.6 31.7 12.5 20.6 Shareholders' Funds 161 207 267 344 439
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.4 10.5 11.9 12.0 12.3 Long Term Debt 1 2 2 0 0
Depreciation 4.3 5.2 6.5 8.0 10.5 Long Term Provisions & Others 3 4 6 6 7
EBIT 58 85 112 125 150 Total Source of Funds 165 213 275 350 446
Interest 2.4 3.8 3.8 1.1 0.8 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Other Income 1.4 2.1 3.2 4.5 5.5 Net Block 105 162 174 234 304
PBT 57 84 112 128 155 Non-Current Investments 0 0 1 1 1
Tax 19.0 25.4 39.0 35.1 38.9 Deferred Tax Assets (net) 0 0 0 0 0
RPAT 38 58 73 93 116 Long Term Loans & Advances 5 5 10 12 13
Minority Int. 0 0 0 0 0 Total Non Current Assets 110 167 186 247 319
APAT 37.5 58.4 72.8 93.2 115.6 Current Investments 0 0 0 0 0
Growth (%) 31.7 55.7 24.7 28.0 24.0 Inventories 0 0 0 0 0
EPS 9.8 15.2 19.0 24.3 30.2 Trade Receivables 113 154 163 175 208
Source: Company, HDFC Sec Research Short term Loans & Advances 9 9 10 11 13
Cash & Equivalents 9 12 17 23 32
Other Current Assets 4 1 3 3 3
Total Current Assets 134 177 193 213 256
Short-Term Borrowings 31 38 6 5 4
Trade Payables 37 65 72 77 95
Other Current Liab & Provisions 10 25 21 23 25
Short-Term Provisions 2 3 4 4 4
Total Current Liabilities 80 131 104 110 129
Net Current Assets 55 46 89 103 127
Total Application of Funds 165 213 275 350 446
Source: Company, HDFC Sec Research

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Cash Flow Statement Key Ratios

(Rs Cr) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E (Rs Cr) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Reported PBT 57 84 112 128 155 Profitability (%)
Non-operating & EO items -1 -2 -3 -5 -6 EBITDA Margin 8.4 10.5 11.9 12.0 12.3
Interest Expenses 2 4 4 1 1 EBIT Margin 7.9 9.9 11.3 11.3 11.5
Depreciation 4 5 7 8 11 APAT Margin 5.0 6.6 7.1 8.2 8.5
Working Capital Change -7 12 -39 -7 -16 RoE 26.4 31.8 30.7 30.5 29.5
Tax Paid -19 -25 -39 -35 -39 RoCE 35.8 41.1 42.1 37.0 34.8
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 36 78 41 91 106 Solvency Ratio
Capex -35 -57 -19 -68 -81 D/E 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Free Cash Flow 2 21 22 23 25 Interest Coverage 24.2 23.3 30.6 117.7 204.0
Investments -2 0 -6 -1 -2 PER SHARE DATA
Non-operating income 1 2 3 5 6 EPS 41.6 44.6 19.0 24.3 30.2
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -35 -55 -22 -65 -77 CEPS 10.9 16.6 20.7 26.4 32.9
Debt Issuance / (Repaid) 1 2 2 -2 2 BV 42 54 70 90 115
Interest Expenses -2 -4 -4 -1 -1 Dividend 1.6 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.5
FCFE 0 19 21 19 26 Turnover Ratios (days)
Share Capital Issuance 0 0 0 0 0 Debtor days 55 64 58 56 56
Dividend -6 -10 -14 -16 -21 Inventory days 0 0 0 0 0
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -8 -11 -16 -20 -20 Creditors days 16 23 28 28 29
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) -7 11 3 6 9 Working Capital Days 39 40 31 28 27
Source: Company, HDFC Sec Research VALUATION
P/E 73.5 47.2 37.9 29.6 23.8
P/BV 17.1 13.3 10.3 8.0 6.3
Dividend Yield 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Source: Company, HDFC Sec Research

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Ratings Chart

R HIGH
E
T
U MEDIUM
R
N LOW
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE

IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 15% &
LOW RISK - LOW RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
BLUE PRICE CAN FALL 20% IF INVESTMENT
RETURN STOCKS PRICE CAN RISE BY
OR MORE RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
20% OR MORE
PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%
IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
MEDIUM RISK - IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20% &
RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
YELLOW HIGH RETURN PRICE CAN FALL 35% IF INVESTMENT
PRICE CAN RISE BY
STOCKS OR MORE RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
35% OR MORE
PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%
IF RISKS MANIFEST
IF INVESTMENT
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 30% &
HIGH RISK - HIGH RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
RED PRICE CAN FALL 50% IF INVESTMENT
RETURN STOCKS PRICE CAN RISE BY
OR MORE RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
50% OR MORE
PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

# Explanation of Red-flag Price level: If stock prices starts sustaining below red-flag level, the premise of the investment needs to be reviewed. Risk
averse investors should exit the stock and preserve capital. The downside of following red-flag level is that if the price decline turns out to be
temporary and if it recovers subsequently, one won’t be able to participate in the gains.

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Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Price Chart

Close Price
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

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 Equity ResearchPick of the Week – PCG Research

Disclosure:
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Any holding in stock –No
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