Chapter 11: Counting Methods and Probability Theory

Probability is involved in virtually every decision we make. Sometimes the role of probability is clear, as
in deciding whether to buy a lottery ticket or whether to plan a picnic based on the probability of rain. In
other cases, probability guides decisions on a deeper level. For example, you might choose a particular
major because you believe it is highly marketable. In this study, we will learn how practical and powerful
probability can be in our everyday lives.
“Probability is the very guide of life.” Cicero (106 – 43 B.C.)

When you successfully complete this study, you will have learned the following:

• How to use the Fundamental Counting Principle.

• How to compute permutations.
• How to compute combinations
• Determine the correct counting method for a given situation.
• How to compute and interpret the probability involving counting methods.
• How to compute and interpret probability involving Not and Or.
• How to find odds from probability and vice versa.
• How to compute and interpret probability involving And; conditional probability.
• How to compute and interpret expected value.

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11.1 The Fundamental Counting Principle

Learning Objectives:
1. Be able to use the Fundamental Counting Principle to determine the number of possible
outcomes in a given situation.

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Lecture Notes

Discovery

You have an 8am course and woke up almost too late. You have to pick something “appropriate” to
wear for class. You have a “lecture wardrobe” which consists of two pairs of pants (jeans and khakis);
three t-shirts (red, blue, and green) and two pairs of footwear (tennis shoes and top-siders). Use a tree
diagram to determine all possible different outfits.

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The Fundamental Counting Principle

The number of ways in which a series of successive things can occur is found by multiplying the number
of ways in which each thing can occur.

Example 1: A competitor in a triathlon must choose from one of 3 swimsuits, 2 bicycles, and 4 types of
running shoes. Determine the number of choices possible.

Example 2: Determine the number of 4-letter “words” are possible from the first 8 letters of the
alphabet if:
A) no letter is repeated.

B) letters can be repeated.

C) adjacent letters must be different.

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D) groupings with all the letters being the same (e.g. AAAA, BBBB, CCCC, … , HHHH) are excluded.

Example 3: A test has 8 questions. The first five questions have four possible answer choices each; the
last three questions have two answer choices each. If exactly (1) choice is marked for each question,
determine how many different answer sheets are possible.

Example 4: License plates in a particular state display two letters followed by three numbers, such as AT-
896 or BB-013. Both the first and the second number cannot be 0. Determine how many different
license plates can be manufactured for this state?

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