Professional Documents
Culture Documents
MOB Unit 2 SBA Group 8
MOB Unit 2 SBA Group 8
OF
Centre #: 100072
Territory: Jamaica
Year: 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Contents Page
acknowledgement……………………………………………………………………1
Introduction………………………………………………………………………… 2
Title………………………………………………………………………………... 3
Justification……………………………………………………………………….. 5
Methodology……………………………………………………………………… 6
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………... 20
Recommendation………………………………………………………………….21
Appendices……………………………………………………………………….. 22-23
Bibliography………………………………………………………………………24
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First and foremost we would like to express profound gratitude to Almighty God for giving us
the strength to complete this School Based Assessment (SBA). We would also like to convey our
heartfelt appreciation to our teacher, Mrs. Callaghan, who worked acidulously with us to ensure
that this assessment was completed. Thanks to the employees at Whitfield Bakery who helped us
INTRODUCTION
This School Based Assessment is designed to give the reader detailed information about the
forecasting techniques used by Whitfield Bakery in May Pen Clarendon. It gives information
about the method/s of production utilized in the business. It also seeks to highlight the realized
benefit/s and drawback/s that Whitfield Bakery encounter as a result of the forecasting technique
utilized.
TITLE
An investigation into the forecasting techniques used in Whitfield Bakery.
AIMS/OBJECTIVES
Aims:
To provide the reader with credible information about the topic.
Objectives:
To find out if the method of production utilized within the business is influenced by the
To ascertain the realized benefit(s) and drawback(s) the business encounter as a result of
To access the extent to which the forecasting technique(s) can be attributed to the success
of the business.
JUSTIFICATION
The researchers have chosen the topic because Whitfield Bakery has been using
regards to projecting future sales. This will be used to meet the needs of customers, and as such
the researchers intend to find out the forecasting technique(s) used in the business. Forecasting
plays an integral role within any organization when effectively implemented and the most
appropriate technique can make a difference as to the success or failure of the business since it
determine the quantity of every resources that would be needed in the transformation process.
The topic was chosen with regards to Whitfield Bakery due to the fact that the items they
avoid spoilage which can ultimately affect the profit margin of the business.
was founded by Walter Christie over seventy-five (75) years ago. Whitfield Bakery is now
owned and operated by the husband and wife team of William and Pauline Fearon, they have
acquired Whitfield Bakery and Pastries, a brand locally and internationally recognized for its
bun, bulla and bread. Whitfield’s main bakery is located at 4 Western Park, May Pen Clarendon
an estimate of the possible future levels of cost, sales, stock or production. Forecasting
techniques are classified into two categories, qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative
forecasting techniques. The qualitative forecasting techniques have four (4) techniques they
include:
Delphi Method
Consumer Survey
Moving average
According to the employees at Whitfield Bakery the business uses all the methods of
production. This is due to the nature of the goods being produced. With the methods of
production used in the business, it is able to, with the aid of the forecasting technique, project
the volume of production and reduce on waste. Consumer survey is the forecasting
technique used by the business as it is deemed useful to find out from consumers exactly
what they desire. This helps the business in numerous ways although at times the customer
feedback is deceiving.
LITERATURE REVIEW
According to https://www.investopedia.com forecasting is a technique that uses historical
data as inputs to make informed estimates that are predictive in determinining the direction of
future trends. Businesses utilize forecasting to determine how to allocate their budgets or plan for
anticipated expenses for an upcoming period of time. The textbook Management of Business for
CAPE Examination by Jerome Pitterson states that forecasting techniques are divided between
performance of a specific demand of the firm. Macro-forecasting deals with making prediction
for the overall market. Forecasting techniques are classified under two categories, these are
quantitative forecasting and qualitative forecasting. Quantitative forecasting techniques are based
largely on opinions; a quantitative forecast uses historical data and previous experience to
forecast sales. This type of forecasting is preferred by most firms once the necessary data is
available. It is believed that the pattern of sales in the pass will continue into the foreseeable
future. Two of the most popular quantitative techniques are: moving average and least squares
regression and moving average is particularly useful when demand randomly fluctuates. Since
the techniques are taking an average of a subset of data, it eliminates the fluctuation while
creating a forecast.
This is a part of the broader concept of linear regression analysis. The term “regression” is seen
as the functional relationship which exists between two or more correlated variables. In addition,
the term “linear regression” defines a situation where the relationship between the variables
of the future outcomes. The predictions are normally used when there are no historical data about
the performance of the product- that is in the early stage of the life cycle. The following are
common quantitative techniques: Sales force composite, Delphi Method, Consumer Survey and
Jury of experts.
Sales force composite technique relies on the sales force of the firm to make projections of the
future levels of demand for the firm’s product. Since the sales force interacts regularly with
customers, they are furnishing with a repertoire of knowledge about trends in the market,
changing customer choice, the product and competitor’s behavior. This method of forecasting
uses the opinion of sakes people to formulate prediction for sales in the future. One point to note
though, is that this type of forecasting is best used in conjunction with other techniques.
Delphi Method
This method uses a group of experts anonymous to each other to make a forecast of sales, among
other things. The way the method works is that when forecast is received from each member of
the group it is summarized and sent back to the other members. The firm will note the concerns
and the group will revise their forecast as needed, until a final prediction is reached. This can be
a long tedious process but the results are normally more accurate than the other qualitative
techniques. The Delphi technique has been credited to Norman Dalkey and his colleagues from
This is a form of marketing research that is used to ascertain the level of potential demand for a
firm’s product. In trying to make a forecast of future sales some businesses may seek to gather
information from the very people who will be purchasing the product-that is, the customers.
selected. Information collected through consumer surveys is usually gathered through the use of
research tools such as questionnaires and interviews. The information collected is then analyzed
and a forecast can be generated about the buying intentions of prospective customers.
Jury of experts
This technique is based on the notion that the managers of the different functional areas of the
firm are armed with knowledge that can be used to predict sales. How this technique works is
that the sales forecast of the executives are combined and averaged to ascertain a final prediction.
The group of executives or jury of experts may be taken from departments of the firm including
finance, marketing, and production or purchasing. This would mean that the forecasting team
Overall each of the technique is quite useful if implemented and used effectively. The one
researchers used both primary and secondary sources to analyze, interpret and evaluate this
research correctly. Primary source are designed to obtain first-hand information. The primary
of questions asked to individuals to obtain statistically useful information about a given topic.
It is cost effective
It is easily administered
The researchers issued a total of ten (10) questionnaires to employees at the Whitfield Bakery in
May Pen, Clarendon. Questionnaires were issued to a total of five (5) males and five (5) females
The researchers also used secondary sources. Secondary source is the access to information that
has already been researched. The information obtained from these secondary sources is reliable
and valid being that they are current year information and they include factual statistics.
Information were extracted from, book, journal and websites for this research.
Because the researchers had an early start, the common limitations were not faced.
6
DATA PRESENTATION
Partnership
Sole trader
Company
The pie chart above clearly indicates the type of business in operation. All of the respondents
With this type of business, the owner reaps all the profit but bears all the loss at the same time.
Cell
Job
Cell
Job
Batch
Batch Flow
Flow
Figure 4 showing the method of production that is being used within the business.
It is clearly indicated in the bar graph above that 10% of the respondents believes that the cell
method is used; 20% selected job, 40% selected batch and the remaining 30% selected flow.
The method of production used by the business seems to be Batch. This method leads to the
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Yes
40% Series 3
30%
20%
10%
0%
YES NO
The majority of the respondents (80%) are of the belief that forecasting influences the
decisions regarding the method of production, the remaining 20% does not share that view.
The method of production is indeed influenced by the forecasting outcome, as such, keen effort
Delphi Method
30%
Consumer survey
20% Sales force
Jury of Experts
40%
The pie chart depicts that ten percent, 10% of the respondents are of the belief that the method of
production used is Jury of experts; 20% selected sales force composite; 30% selected Delphi and
The method used seems to be consumer survey where the input of consumers is sought to project
future sales.
Question 6: What is/are the realized benefit(s) of the technique(s) being used?
Responses Percentage
Figure 6 showing the realized benefits of the technique(s) being used in the business
The table above is displaying that 30% of the respondents believes that the business realise and
increase in profit with the use of the technique; 20% said reduction in waste and the remaining
Customer satisfaction seems to be the most realised benefit from the use of the forecasting
technique. Where customers are satisfied then the business is destine for greatness.
Question 7: Is there any challenge(s) encountered with the strategies in place?
No
Yes
NO
YES
The bar graph shows the percentage response to if the business encounters challenge with the
technique in place; 70% of the respondents said yes and the remaining 30% said no.
It is palpable that the business encounters challenges with the technique in place. This could be
technique used?
Responses Percentage
Figure 9 Table showing the extent to which the respondents would attribute the success of the
The majority of the respondents, 70%, based on the table, attributes the success of the business to
the forecasting technique used to a great extent; 20% does so to a minimal extent and the
From all indication the respondents attribute the success of the business to the forecasting
technique being used. This could be due to the involvement of the customers.
CONCLUSION
The researcher has taken the timeout to conduct a research on the forecasting techniques
planning, and estimating future growth. Forecasting technique is categorized in two (2) groups.
They are qualitative and quantitative techniques. The qualitative technique consists of:
Delphi method
Consumer survey
Jury of experts
Moving average
The forecasting technique used by the bakery is consumer survey, which is said to be beneficial
to the success of the business. The technique also influences the methods of production as it
drawback with the use of the technique as it seems that customer feedback is not always
accurate.
RECOMMENDATION
The researcher see it fit to make the following recommendation:
That the Bakery continue to use consumer survey as a forecasting technique, but try using
That the business not only rely on what the customers say but implement other method to
motivate the customers into converting their words into action; for example promotion.
That the business works at being productive so as to ensure that all the stakeholders are
catered for.
Ensure that the business is operating profitably, as it is often noticed that after Easter
holiday the business has excess stock that they have to sell at a low price. This is to show
Yes [] No []
6) What is/ are the realized benefit/s of the technique/s being used?
Other []
Yes [] No []
used?
24