Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Manthan Report - Commodity Sector
Manthan Report - Commodity Sector
REPORT 2020
Commodity
Sector
1
INDEX
5 Recent Trends 14
2
Commodity Sector
3
History of Commodity Exchanges:
The world's first commodities arose from agriculture practices (crop production
and raising livestock). Archaeological discoveries indicate that agriculture
developed around 10,000 BC, as humans began settlements and farming. An
agricultural revolution started around 8,500 BC, which led to trading
commodities between settlements.
As more farmers and merchants began delivering their goods to Chicago, the first
American exchange was set up in 1848. It was called the Chicago Board of Trade
(CBOT). This group of brokers established a more efficient, standardized method
of exchanging goods and payment by creating futures contracts. Instead of
managing numerous customized contracts between interested parties, they
streamlined the process of buying and selling future delivery for a present price
by generating contracts that were identical in terms of quality of the asset,
delivery time and terms.
For over 100 years, agricultural products remained the primary class of futures
trading. The CBOT added soybeans in 1936. In the 1940s, exchanges included
trading for cotton and lard. Livestock was added to the trading "block" during the
1950s. Contracts for precious metals like silver started trading during the 1960s.
By the 1970s, when global currencies were no longer tied to gold prices, currency
values fluctuated based on supply and demand, and financial futures became a
tradable "commodity". Now, you could trade prices instead of goods. This opened
up a new era – one where a cash settlement is used instead of the traditional
"delivery" of goods. Throughout the 80s and 90s, stock market index benchmarks
like the S&P 500 and government debt instruments were added to the list of
tradable futures.
During the 20th century, exchanges opened up all over the United States. Cities
such as Milwaukee, New York, St. Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis, San
Francisco, Memphis, New Orleans and others hosted trading, but Chicago
remained the most influential location for commodities futures trading.
In the early 21st century the advent of the online trading systems led to heightened
interest in commodities and futures. From the comfort of home or office, buyers
4
and sellers could place orders through electronic trading systems and online
brokerage houses. Easier access and increased information sharing led many to
pursue careers in futures trading.
As trading developed, producers and dealers looked for ways to preserve the price
of their products. Factors such as weather, conflict, and supply and demand affect
the pricing. In addition, as supplies became more plentiful, storage was necessary;
merchants sought ways to raise money while their product was stored until being
sold. A supply glut led to a price crash and a peak in demand led to an escalation
in price. This brought in the concept of Hedging through different types of
derivatives.
5
Types of Derivatives:
Derivatives
Exchange
OTC
Traded
These are contracts that are traded (and privately negotiated) directly between
two parties, without going through an exchange or other intermediary. Products
such as swaps, forward rate agreements, exotic options and other exotic
derivatives are almost always traded in this way.
These are standardized derivative contracts (e.g. futures contracts and options)
that are transacted on an organized futures exchange. They are standardized and
require payment of an initial deposit or margin settled through a clearing house.
Forward Contract:
It is a customized contract between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a specified
price on a future date. A forward contract settlement can occur either on cash or
on delivery basis. It does not trade on a centralized exchange and are therefore
regarded as over-the-counter (OTC) instruments. While its OTC nature makes it
6
easier to customize terms, the lack of a centralized clearing house also gives rise
to a higher degree of default risk. As a result, forward contracts are not as easily
available to the retail investor as futures contracts.
Futures Contract:
It is a contractual agreement, generally made on the trading floor of a futures
exchange, to buy or sell a commodity or financial instrument at a pre-determined
price in the future. Futures contracts also carry details of the quality and quantity
of the underlying asset and are standardized to facilitate trading on a futures
exchange. Some futures contracts may call for physical delivery of the asset,
while others are settled in cash.
Swaps:
They were introduced in the 1970s. A swap is a derivative in which counterparties
exchange the cash flows of one party's financial instrument for those of the other
party's financial instrument.
Options:
An option is a contract that allows (but doesn't require) an investor to buy or sell
an underlying instrument like a security, ETF or even index at a predetermined
price over a certain period of time.
7
As most of ICAs and ISGs were set up as a result of the UN Conferences on
respective commodities organized and serviced by UNCTAD, an important
segment of work in this area is to convene and service, United Nations
Conferences and meetings related to the negotiations, renegotiations or
functioning of new agreements. UNCTAD has a status of observer to all ICBs.
Commodity Bodies
International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)
International Coffee Organization (ICO)
International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
International Grains Council (IGC)
International Olive Council (IOC)
International Sugar Organization (ISO)
International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO)
Global Trading Platforms-
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
CBOT is the first grain futures exchange in the United States, organized in
Chicago in 1848. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) began as a voluntary
association of prominent Chicago grain merchants. The Board of Trade
eventually became one of the largest of the world’s futures markets in terms of
volume and value of business.
Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM)
The formation of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) came with the
merger of the Tokyo Textile Exchange, the Tokyo Rubber Exchange, and the
Tokyo Gold Exchange in November 1984. Initially, TOCOM focused on listing
rubber, gold, silver, and platinum. Over the next two decades, the scope of the
TOCOM broadened numerous times. TOCOM gives investors the opportunity to
trade futures and options contracts for rubber, gold, silver, crude oil, gasoline, gas
oil, kerosene, platinum, and palladium.
8
New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
It was founded as the New York Cotton Exchange in 1870, it was a privately
owned company until it became a wholly owned subsidiary of Intercontinental
Exchange in 2007. It trades a variety of commodities, notably cotton, cocoa,
coffee, and sugar. The exchange also traded financial and index contracts based
on stock market indices, currencies, and interest rates.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), colloquially known as the Chicago
Merc, is an organized exchange for the trading of futures and options. The CME
trades futures, and in most cases options, in the sectors of agriculture, energy,
stock indices, foreign exchange, interest rates, metals, real estate, and even
weather. In 2007, a merger with the Chicago Board of Trade created the CME
Group, one of the largest financial exchanges in the world. In 2008, the CME
acquired NYMEX Holdings, Inc., the parent of the New York Mercantile
Exchange (NYMEX) and Commodity Exchange, Inc (COMEX). By 2010, the
CME purchased a 90% interest in the Dow Jones stock and financial indexes. The
CME grew again in 2012 with the purchase of the Kansas City Board of Trade,
the dominant player in hard red winter wheat.
Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME)
Dubai Mercantile Exchange Limited (DME) is the premier energy-focused
commodities exchange in the East of Suez and home to the world's third crude
benchmark. The DME lists the Oman Crude Oil Futures Contract (DME Oman)
as its flagship contract, providing the most fair and transparent crude oil
benchmark for the region. DME Oman is the explicit and sole benchmark for
Oman and Dubai crude oil Official Selling Prices (OSPs) - historically established
markers for Middle Eastern crude oil exports to Asia.
London Metal Exchange (LME)
The London Metal Exchange is the world centre for trading of industrial metals
– the majority of all non-ferrous metal futures are transacted on this platform.
Investors value the LME not only as a vibrant futures exchange but also for its
9
close links to industry. The possibility of physical delivery via the world wide
network of LME- approved warehouses makes it the perfect hedging venue for
industry and provides a reference price they trust.
Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX)
DGCX commenced trading in November 2005 as the regions first commodity
derivatives exchange and has become today, the leading derivatives exchange in
the Middle East. DGCX offers trading opportunities to financial communities and
investment houses in both the Middle East and around the globe who wish to
access the growing asset class of commodity and currency derivatives.
10
Developments in the Indian Commodity Market
Earlier, cash settlements were more common in commodity trading. With the
growth of online trading platforms, today commodity trading can be easily
managed by investors on the move with the help of a bank account, demat account
and trading account.
Leading financial service providers and banks are offering commodity trading
services by taking membership in the commodity exchanges that serve the Indian
commodity market. Today, the Indian commodity market deals with trading
turnover that comes up to trillions of rupees.
11
Structure of Indian Commodity Market
Misnistry of
Consumer Affairs
Forward Markrt
Commission
Commodity Commodity
Exchanges Derivatives
National Regional
Other Regional
Commodity Commodity Future Market
Exchanges
Exchanges Exchanges
16 Regional 23 Other
MCX Precious Metals
Exchanges Exchanges
NCDEX Agriculture
ICE Energy
ADCE
UCE
12
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Limited - NCDEX
NCDEX, located in Mumbai, is a public limited company, which was
incorporated on 23rd April 2003. This is an online multi-commodity exchange
that is promoted and professionally managed by ICICI Bank Limited, Life
Insurance Corporation of India, National Bank for Agriculture and Rural
Development, National Stock Exchange of India Limited , Punjab National Bank,
CRISIL Limited, Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Limited and Canara
Bank.
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd – MCX
It was established in 2003 and is based in Mumbai. Multi Commodity Exchange
of India Ltd. (MCX), is a state-of-the-art electronic commodity futures exchange.
The demutualized Exchange has permanent recognition from the Government of
India to facilitate online trading, and clearing and settlement operations for
commodity futures across the country. The Exchange operates within the
regulatory framework of the Forward Contracts Regulation Act, 1952 (FCRA,
1952) and regulations there under.
National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd – NMCEIL
13
Recent Trends:
Commodity markets have been buffeted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has
already caused a historical stop in economic activity. The pandemic has affected
both the demand and supply of commodities due mitigation measures taken to
control the pandemic. The prices of most commodities have fallen since January,
especially those that are related to the transportation industry.
Energy prices fell 18.4 percent (q/q) in 2020 Q1, with a marked deterioration
throughout the quarter as the severity of COVID-19 became increasingly
apparent. Crude oil prices averaged $32/bbl in March, a decline of 50 percent
compared with January. Prices reached a historic low in April with some
benchmarks trading at negative levels. Demand for oil also collapsed as a result
of COVID-19 mitigation measures which has sharply curtailed travel and
transport, which accounts for around two-thirds of oil demand. The fall in prices
was exacerbated by the breakdown of the production agreement between OPEC
and its partners in early March, and prices failed to rally when a new agreement
to reduce production by 9.7mb/d disappointed markets in April (Box, Energy
section). While natural gas prices have also seen sizeable declines, albeit less than
for crude oil, coal prices have seen smaller declines partly because demand for
heating and electricity has been somewhat less affected by mitigation measures.
Most non-energy prices also fell in 2020 Q1, but by less than energy prices. The
metals and minerals price index fell 5 percent on the quarter, but with significant
variation among its components. Copper and zinc prices declined by around 15
percent relative to their January peak, reflecting their close relationship with the
global economic activity. In contrast, iron ore prices have fallen just 7 percent,
with weakening demand partly balanced by supply disruptions. Among precious
metals, gold prices rose modestly amid heightened uncertainty and safe-haven
flows, while platinum prices dropped by 23 percent reflecting their heavy use in
the production of catalytic converters in the transportation industry. With some
exceptions, agricultural commodity prices saw minor declines during the first
quarter reflecting their indirect relationship to economic growth. However,
natural rubber prices fell 25 percent from their January peak largely because two-
14
thirds of the crop is used in the manufacture of tires. Prices of maize and some
edible oils fell as well due to the collapse of biofuel demand.
Impact of COVID-19 on Commodity Markets:
On March 19, the World Health Organization announced that COVID-19 was a
global pandemic. The number of infections and deaths continue to rise sharply
across the world, and the outbreak presents a major shock to an already fragile
global outlook. Prior to the outbreak, global growth is expected to rise marginally
to 2.5 percent in 2020, from a post-crisis low of 2.4 percent in 2019 (World Bank
2020). Consensus estimates of growth now suggest that deep recessions are likely
in many advanced economies, while growth in emerging market and developing
economies (EMDEs) is expected to slow down sharply. Weaker growth will also
result in reduced demand for commodities.
The direct impact of COVID-19 and measures taken to contain it have had
substantial impacts on commodity markets and supply chains. Prices of most
major commodities have fallen since January, led by oil which experienced its
largest one-month fall on record in March. While mitigation measures to control
the spread of COVID-19 are essential, they have caused severe economic
dislocations and a sharp reduction in travel. For example, passenger journeys in
China in March fell by three-fifths compared to their normal level, while subway
journeys in New York City have fallen by one-third. There has also been a
reduction in the volume of shipping as a result of shrinking global trade. As a
result, the International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to decline
almost 10 percent in 2020, which is more than twice the largest plunge in 1980.
The prospects for commodity prices were already muted when the pandemic hit.
Rising trade tensions and slowing growth in China were adversely affecting
demand, and most commodities were in ample supply. U.S. oil production
reached record levels in 2019, while most food commodity markets experienced
near-record high production and stock levels.
While the current pandemic has few precedents in history, past episodes of major
economic recessions or disruptions, as well as previous major disease outbreaks,
15
can provide valuable insights into how commodity markets may be affected. For
example, the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, led to
widespread travel disruptions and reduced demand for oil. Past outbreaks of
disease have had substantial localized impacts, particularly on agricultural
markets. Past global recessions have been accompanied by sharp declines in
industrial commodity demand.
The consequences of COVID-19 are large and likely to persist, with widely
varying impacts on individual commodities. Against this backdrop, let us try to
examine the implications of COVID-19 for commodity markets.
16
disruptions to food supply chains may result in food security concerns, which in
turn can trigger hoarding by consumers. That could push prices higher at the
consumer level, while at the same time ample harvests, such as for grains, could
lead to lower producer prices. Similarly, for metals, shutdowns of refineries could
create a wedge between the prices of refined metals and ores.
17
Oil markets
The impact of COVID-19 has been most severe for the crude oil market. Crude
oil prices have fallen by two-thirds since January 2020, the date of the first
recorded human-to-human infection. The oil market has been hit by an
unprecedented combination of negative-demand and positive supply shocks.
Mitigation measures to stem the pandemic and a global recession have coincided
with the collapse of the production agreement by OPEC and its partners in early
March (OPEC+, Box 1, Energy section). This stands in contrast with supply
shocks faced by many other industries, mostly due to mitigation measures.
Weaker demand
Transport disruptions and an economic decline have weakened demand.
Transport disruptions: The largest factor driving the collapse in oil prices
has been the sharp reduction in demand arising from mitigation measures.
The unprecedented drop in transport in many countries has led to a sharp
fall in fuel demand. Oil demand fell by 6 percent (6 mb/d) in 2020 Q1, and
the International Energy Agency anticipates it will fall by 23 percent (23
mb/d) in 2020 Q2, as a growing number of countries have put in place
mitigation measures, particularly the United States (the largest consumer
of oil).
Slowdown in economic activity: The slowdown in economic growth will
also reduce global oil consumption. Oil has a relatively high-income
elasticity of demand, which suggests that declines in economic growth can
lead to falls in oil demand (World Bank 2018a, 2018b).
Fluctuations in supply
Oil prices have also been buffeted by the collapse and rebirth of production
agreements among OPEC+ members. The breakdown of the OPEC+ production
agreement in early March exacerbated the ongoing fall in oil prices, with a decline
of 24 percent the day after the announcement. While the potential increase in
supply arising from the end of production restraint (around 2-3 million barrels per
day) was small compared with the expected fall in demand, it nonetheless
aggravated expectations of chronic oversupply. In mid-April, the group agreed
on historically large production cuts of 9.7mb/d. However, the announcement did
18
little to support prices, given the uncertainty of demand and worries the
announced supply cuts will be insufficient.
Agricultural commodities
Global agricultural markets have been less affected so far than industrial
commodities. Prices of the main food commodities have declined about 9 percent
since January 20 (Agriculture section). This modest decline reflects a lower
income elasticity of demand for agricultural commodities (compared to industrial
commodities) and, hence, less demand pressure from the global recession
currently underway. Natural rubber (used purely in industrial purposes) was an
exception. It has declined 25 percent largely because almost 2/3 rd of its
consumption is accounted for by the production of tires for the transport sector.
In addition, the decline in crude oil prices and gasoline production have affected
crops used in biofuels, such as corn and soybeans.
Food security
Global food markets remain amply supplied following recent bumper harvests,
especially in maize and wheat. For major staple food commodities, stock-to-use
ratios are very high by historical standards. Nevertheless, recent announcements
of trade restrictions by some key exporters (e.g., Russia for wheat and Vietnam
for rice), as well as “excess” buying by some importers (e.g., Philippines for rice,
Egypt and Saudi Arabia for wheat), have raised concerns about food security
(Glauber et al. 2020). If such concerns become widespread, it may result in
hoarding. Low-income countries (LICs) are more vulnerable.
19
Products - Price Trends:
Product Unit 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Crude oil, ($/bbl) 88.93 51.86 45.53 54.26 67.15 61.73
average
Coal, average ($/mt) 64.80 60.23 70.32 90.95 105.15 78.29
20
Tobacco ($/mt) 4611.80 5015.73 5111.13 4808.14 4777.88 4601.91
21
Academic Committee
2019-2021
National Institute of Agricultural Extension Management
(MANAGE)
Rajendranagar, Hyderabad: 500030
22