References for Thesis Proposal:

Thesis Title:

1. Lin, N., Vanmarcke, E. and Yau, S. (2010) Windborne debris risk analysis- Part II. Application to
structural vulnerability modeling. Wind and Structures, Vol. 13 No. 2, 207-220

Simulated the “chain reaction” effect of the interaction between wind pressure and windborne
debris which is likely to be a major cause of damage to residential buildings during severe wind
events.
The paper introduced the integrated vulnerability model which consists of the debris risk analysis
methodology and component-based pressure damage model.

Integrated
Vulnerability
Model

Component-
Debris Risk
based Pressure
Analysis
Damage Model
a. Debris Risk
Analysis Methodology

Refer to Part I of the paper for the development of the debris risk model.
To estimate the debris damage risk to a window (w) of a target building (j; having area A j, the debris
risk model makes use of 4 probabilistic quantities:
 For each type (s) of debris generated from each (source) building (i) in the area, the mean number of
debris objects generated ( λ s ,i)
 The probability of debris hitting the target building ( A j μ s ,i ( j) ¿
 The probability of debris impacting the window given it hits the target building ( ps , i ( j w ∨ j) ¿
 The probability of the debris horizontal momentum (Z) exceeding the window resistance ( ϵ j ) when
w

the debris object impacts the window (ϕ s ,i ( Z> ϵ j ∨ j w )¿

w

For a specific wind condition (wind speed and direction), the probability of debris damage to the
window is given by the equation developed in Part I.
−α ( j w)
P D ( j w ) =1−e

Where

Stochastic models (probability functions) are developed in Section 3 of Part I to estimate the 2
probabilistic debris trajectory parameters:

μs ,i−¿ variable that represents the spatial distribution of debris landing positions, modeled with 2D
Gaussian distribution
 ϕ s ,i ( Z> ϵ j ∨ j w ) ¿−¿ exceedance probability of debris non-dimensional horizontal speed with a Beta
w

distribution.

ps , i ( j w| j ) =r j cos ( θi , j ) orr j sin ( θ i , j) where r j −¿ equals the ratio of the area of the window to the
w w w

area of the building face on which the window is located.

λ s ,i−¿ the mean of the number of type s debris generated from house, i, is estimated from a
component- based pressure damage model. Such a pressure damage model can predict the extent of
damage to structural components, under specific wind conditions and thus, the number of damaged
roof components (generated debris objects) can be estimated.

b. Component-based pressure damage model

The paper used the component-based pressure damage model developed by the engineering
component of the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Projection (FPHLP) model (Gurley et. Al 2005).

c. Integration of debris and pressure damage models

The developed debris and pressure damage models are integrated into an advanced stuctural
vulnerability model.
 Integrated Vulnerability Model
Vulnerability Assessment
- Data Collection on Study Area
o Specify the location and orientation of each residence
o House Characteristics: Geometry, Structural Components, Component Resistances, Types
and Characteristics of potential debris sources on the house roof  info may be obtained
from local building stock
- Windfield Characteristics
o Time series of wind speed and direction during a storm’s passage

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

ENGINE

Pseudo Code:
Run1
- Pertinent parameters are randomly assigned to each house (component resistance only?)
- Analysis is applied through the entire wind time history
- The component based pressure damage model is applied to estimate wind pressure damage to
structural components generate λ s ,i - mean number of debris for each type of debris
- Input λ s ,i to debris risk model
- Debris damage to window
- Update internal pressure and recalculate damage to structural components
- Update λ s ,i
- Iterate until no more debris is generated and no more damage is added
- Next time step of wind time history

How to incorporate wind time history to vulnerability assessment:

 i. Use maximum wind speed (with corresponding direction) during each time interval of the
wind time history (time series analyisis)
 Has the great advantage of predicting cumulative damage during the passage of
particular hurricanes as it models the consequences of structural damage in real storms.
ii. An alternative, select the max wind speed (and corresponding direction) in each wind
direction segment of the wind time history (every 15 degrees of direction change)
 Estimated damage are expected to be lower than those of the time series
 May overestimate debris damage if it assumes that all debris iterms are generated at the
time of occurrence of the max wind speed and fly far, in reality much of the debris
generated may hit the ground under lower wind speed conditions.

Site Specific analysis: Case Study (Sarasota County, Florida)

Selected Study Site:

A residential development of 358 1-storey (site built) houses in Sarasota County, Florida.
2. Lin, N. and Vanmarcke, E. (2010). Windborne Debris Risk analysis- Part I. Introduction and
Methodology. Wind and Structures Vol. 13, No.2, pp 191-206

3. Lin, N. and Vanmarcke, E. (2008) Windborne Debris Risk Assessment. Probabilistic

Engineering Mechanics, pp. 523-530

Twisdale et al
 developed an integrated methodology to analyze debris risk in residential areas,
combining numerical models of the hurricane wind field and debris generation,
trajectory and impact.
 Produced reliability curves for typical residential environments which lie at the basis of
recommendations in ASTM for debris impact risk analysis

This paper proposes a methodology to predict the debris risk to individual buildings in a
development as well as aggregate debris risk.

 Debris risk model

Relies on Poisson random measure theory to predict the impact damage to a residential area
under hurricane wind conditions due to debris generated from building sources.
Other debris sources (street signs, trash cans) at this stage of model development is ignored.

a. Define a relatively isolated region, containing the structures of interest, the region is not
likely to interact with the outside in terms of debris damage
b. Number the residences by integers, i, where I is their total number within the region.
Every house can generate debris and can be hit by debris generated from any house
(itself included) in the region depending on the wind condition.
c. i(i=1,2,....I) to identify properties of a house when it is a debris source house and
j(j=1,2,... I) when it is an impact target house. A j denote the area occupied by house j.
Suppose there are Si types of debris generated from house i and S= max[ Si, i=1,2,...,I]

The common debris types that have been observed in hurricane damage surveys are
roof covers, roof sheathings and 2 x 4 timbers.
For one type of debris,
Let the number of items of type s debris ( s ≤ S i ) generated from house i be a random
variable Ls , i and assume it has the Poisson distribution with mean, λ s ,i

Define the landing positions of these debris items as independent identically distributed
1 l L
random variables X s ,i , … , X s ,i , … . , X s ,i with μs ,i (dx ) as their common probability
distribution.
H s , i ( A j ) as the number of debris items that will land on the area occupied by house j.
The number of items of debris hitting house j may be expressed as:

Where δ ( x , A )=1 if x belongs to A and δ ( x , A )=0 , otherwise.

H s , i is a Poisson random measure on E, with mean value ν s .i ( dx )=λ s ,i μ s ,i ( dx)

Where ν s .i ( A j ) is the mean number of hits on house j

Specifically, the probability that house j suffers exactly N iimpacts is,

Y lss , ,ii random variable defined as the horizontal impact momentum of debris item l s , i
(hitting on the ground or on a house)
Y lss , ,ii =ms ulss ,i,i

Where ulss ,i,i is the horizontal impact speed of the debris item and
m s , i is ists mass (assumed to br a konw constant for a given debris type
Horizontal impact speed of a debris item is primarily a function of the distance traveled
Suppose the impact resistance of a particular