Month (t) Motorcycle Sales

(𝐃_𝐭 3-Month
〖 (𝐅MA Forecast
〗 _𝐭𝟑)
(𝐄_𝐭) Error 〖 |𝐄 〗 _𝐭 |
)
January 9
February 7
March 10
April 8 9 Time-1 Series Forecasting
May 7 18 8 -1
June 12 16 8 4
July 10 14
9 1
August 11 10 1
12
September 12 11 1
10
Motorcycle Sales

October 10 11 -1
8
November 14 11 3
December 16 6 12 4
January 4 13
2
0 Total 11
ry ar
y h ril ay ne ly st r r r r
ua ru a rc Ap M Ju Ju gu be be be be
n b M Au em cto m m
J a F e pt O ve ce
Se No De

Month

Dealer will choose 3-month MA Forecast

 〖 |𝐄 〗 Absolute
_𝐭 | Error 5-Month MA (𝐄_𝐭)
〖 (𝐅 〗 _𝐭𝟓)
Forecast Error 〖 |𝐄 〗 Absolute
_𝐭 | Error

1
Time Series Forecasting
1
4 8 4 4
1 9 1 1
1 9 2 2
1 10 2 2
1 10 0 0
Actual Sale
3 11
3-Month MA Forecast
3 3
4 11MA Forecast
5-Month 5 5
13

17 17 17
ly st r r r r ry
Ju gu be be be be ua
Au m cto m m n
pt
e O ve ce J a
Se No De
MAD=17/9=1.89 MAD=17/7=2.43
Month
 Demand for soft(𝐃_𝐭 〖 (𝐅 〗 _𝐭) Error(𝐄_𝐭)
3-Month
Month (t) ) MA Forecast 〖 |𝐄 〗 _𝐭 |
Absolute Error 16
shag carpet (1,000 yd.)

Demand ForSoft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.)

15

1 8 14
2 12 13
3 7 12
4 9 9 0 0 11
5 15 9 6 6 10
6 11 10 1 1
9
7 10 12 -2 2
8
8 12 12 0 0
7
9 11
6
1
Total 5 9

MAD=9/5=1.8

3-month MA forecast appears more accurate

 Time Series Forecasting
16
〖 (𝐅 〗 _𝐭) Error (𝐄_𝐭)
3-Month
〖 |𝐄 〗 _𝐭 |
Absolute Error
WMA Forecast
Demand ForSoft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.)

15
14
13
12
Actual Demand
11 9 0 0 3-Month MA Forecast
10 9 6 6 3-Month WMA Forecast
12 -1 1
9
12 -2 2
8
11 1 1
7
11
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 10
Month

MAD=10/5=2
Actual Demand
-Month MA Forecast
-Month WMA Forecast
 α = 0.4 Ft +1 = Ft + α (Dt – Ft )

Exponentially
Month Fund Price (𝐃_𝐭 Smoothing
〖 (𝐅 〗 _𝐭) Error
(𝐄_𝐭) Absolute Error
〖 |𝐄 〗 _𝐭 |
) Forecast

1 62.7 62.7 0.0 0.0

2 63.9 62.7 1.2 1.2
3 68 63.2 4.8 4.8
4 66.4 65.1 1.3 1.3
5 67.2 65.6 1.6 1.6
6 65.8 66.3 -0.5 0.5
7 68.2 66.1 2.1 2.1
8 69.3 66.9 2.4 2.4
9 67.2 67.9 -0.7 0.7
10 70.1 67.6 2.5 2.5

Total 14.8 17.0

CFE=14.8/10=1.48 MAD = 17/9 = 1.89

Time
72

70

68
Fund Price

66

64

62

60

58
1 2 3 4 5 6

Month
62

60

58
1 2 3 4 5 6

Month
 𝐀_𝟏=𝟔𝟐.𝟕 α = 0.4 𝐓_𝟏 = 0 β = 0.3
At = α Dt + (1 – α)(At-1 + Tt-1) Tt = β (At – At-1) + (1 - β)Tt-1

Trend Average Trend for 〖 (𝑭 〗 _𝒕)

Trend-Adjusted
Error
(𝐄_𝐭)
〖 (𝐀 〗 _𝐭) month (𝐓_𝐭) Exponential Smoothing

62.70 0.00 0 0
63.18 0.14 62.70 1.20
65.19 0.71 63.32 4.68
66.10 0.77 65.90 0.50
67.00 0.81 66.86 0.34
67.00 0.56 67.80 -2.00
67.82 0.64 67.57 0.63
68.80 0.74 68.46 0.84
68.60 0.46 69.54 -2.34
69.48 0.59 69.06 1.04

Total 4.88

CFE=4.88/9=0.54

Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Forecast is most accurate

Time Series Forecasting

Actual Fund Price

Exponentially Smoothing Forecast
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Month
4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Month
 Absolute Error
〖 |𝐄 〗 _𝐭 |

0.00
1.20
4.68
0.50
0.34
2.00
0.63
0.84
2.34
1.04

13.56

MAD = 13.56/9 = 1.51

Month Fund Price 3-Month
〖 (𝐅 〗 _𝐭) Error(𝐄_𝐭) Absolute Error 3-Month
〖 (𝐅 〗 _𝐭)
($)(𝐃_𝐭 MA Forecast 〖 |𝐄 〗 _𝐭 | WMA Forecast
)

1 63 1/4
2 60 1/8
3 61 3/4
4 64 1/4 61.71 2.54 2.54 61.41
5 59 3/8 62.04 -2.67 2.67 63.09
6 57 7/8 61.79 -3.92 3.92 61.08
7 62 1/4 60.50 1.75 1.75 58.96
8 65 1/8 59.83 5.29 5.29 60.65
9 68 1/4 61.75 6.50 6.50 63.54
10 65 1/2 65.21 0.29 0.29 66.71
11 68 1/8 66.29 1.83 1.83 66.29
12 63 1/4 67.29 -4.04 4.04 67.35
13 64 3/8 65.63 -1.25 1.25 64.94
14 68 5/8 65.25 3.38 3.38 64.41
15 70 1/8 65.42 4.71 4.71 66.81
16 72 3/4 67.71 5.04 5.04 69.10
17 74 1/8 70.50 3.63 3.63 71.55
18 71 3/4 72.33 -0.58 0.58 73.31
19 75 1/2 72.88 2.63 2.63 72.56
20 76 3/4 73.79 2.96 2.96 74.24
21 74.67 75.88

Total 28.08 53.00

MAD = 53/17 = 3.12

3-month WMA Forecast is most

Time Series Forecasting

80

75
nd Price ($)

70

65
 80

75

Fund Price ($)

70

65

60

55
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Month
 Ft +1 = Ft + α (Dt – Ft ) α = 0.4

Exponentially
〖 (𝐅 〗 _𝐭) Error(𝐄_𝐭) Absolute Error
〖 |𝐄 〗 _𝐭 | 〖 (𝐅 〗 _𝐭) Error(𝐄_𝐭)
Smoothing 〖 |𝐄 〗 _𝐭 |
Absolute Error
Forecast

63.25 0.00 0.00

63.25 -3.13 3.13
62.00 -0.25 0.25
2.84 2.84 61.90 2.35 2.35
-3.71 3.71 62.84 -3.47 3.47
-3.20 3.20 61.45 -3.58 3.58
3.29 3.29 60.02 2.23 2.23
4.47 4.47 60.91 4.21 4.21
4.71 4.71 62.60 5.65 5.65
-1.21 1.21 64.86 0.64 0.64
1.84 1.84 65.12 3.01 3.01
-4.10 4.10 66.32 -3.07 3.07
-0.56 0.56 65.09 -0.72 0.72
4.21 4.21 64.80 3.82 3.82
3.31 3.31 66.33 3.79 3.79
3.65 3.65 67.85 4.90 4.90
2.58 2.58 69.81 4.32 4.32
-1.56 1.56 71.54 0.21 0.21
2.94 2.94 71.62 3.88 3.88
2.51 2.51 73.17 3.58 3.58
74.60

22.00 50.70 28.38 56.79

MAD = 50.70/17 = 2.98 MAD = 56.79/19 = 3.15

WMA Forecast is most accurate

es Forecasting

Actual Fund Price

3-Month MA Forecast
3-Month WMA Forecast
Exponentially Smoothing Forecast
 Actual Fund Price
3-Month MA Forecast
3-Month WMA Forecast
Exponentially Smoothing Forecast

14 15 16 17 18 19 20
〖 |𝐄 〗 _𝐭 |
 Blue Sox Wins Occupancy Rate (%) 𝐗^𝟐 𝐘^𝟐
Year XY
(X) (Y)

1 75 83 6225 5625 6889

2 70 78 5460 4900 6084
3 85 86 7310 7225 7396
4 91 85 7735 8281 7225
5 87 89 7743 7569 7921
6 90 93 8370 8100 8649
7 87 92 8004 7569 8464
8 67 91 6097 4489 8281
Total 652 697 56944 53758 60909
𝐗 ̅= 81.5 𝐘 ̅= 87.125

𝐛=(∑▒𝐗𝐘−𝐧𝐗 ̅𝐘 ̅)/(∑▒ 〖 (𝐗^𝟐 〗 )−𝐧( 〖𝐗 ̅ ) 〗 ^𝟐 )

a=𝒀 ̅-𝐛𝑿 ̅ 𝐘=𝐚+𝐛(𝐗)

68.919 0.223 Y=68.919 + 0.223(X)

Forecast for Year 9:

Blue Sox Wins = 88 games
Y=68.919 + 0.223(88) r = 0.41 r^2 = 0.17
Y = 88.5 %
 Linear Regression Model
100

95
Occupancy rate at Hotel (%)

90
f(x) = 0.223387096774194 x + 68.9189516129032 Linear Regression Model
R² = 0.169181752034044 Linear (Linear Regression Model)
85

80

75
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
Blue SOx Wins (Games)
ar Regression Model
ar (Linear Regression Model)
 Average Temperature Ice Cream Sold 𝐗^𝟐
Week XY
(Degrees) (X) (gal.) (Y)

1 73 110 8030 5329

2 65 95 6175 4225
3 81 135 10935 6561
4 90 160 14400 8100
5 75 97 7275 5625
6 77 105 8085 5929
7 82 120 9840 6724
8 93 175 16275 8649
9 86 140 12040 7396
10 79 121 9559 6241
Total 801 1258 102614 64779
𝐗 ̅= 80.1 𝐘 ̅= 125.8

𝐛=(∑▒𝐗𝐘−𝐧𝐗 ̅𝐘 ̅)/(∑▒ 〖 (𝐗^𝟐 〗 )−𝐧( 〖𝐗 ̅ ) 〗 ^𝟐 )

a=𝒀 ̅-𝐛𝑿 ̅ 𝐘=𝐚+𝐛(𝐗)

-113.400 2.986 Y = -113.4 + 2.986(X)

Ice Cream consumption Forecast:

Temperature Expected = 85 Degree r = 0.93
Y = -113.4 + 2.986(85)
Y = 140.41 gal.
 Linear Regression Model
𝐘^𝟐 200

180

12100 160 f(x) = 2.98626595572791 x − 113.399903053805

Ice Cream Sold (gal.)

9025 R² = 0.863240856383933
18225 140
Linear Regression Mod
25600 Linear (Linear Regress
120
9409
11025 100
14400
30625 80
19600
14641 60
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
164650
Average Temperature (Degree)

r^2 = 0.86
 Linear Regression Model
Linear (Linear Regression Model)

100