The future of New Religious Movements

Some sociologists have attempted to work out how NRMs might evolve in the
future.

(1) World-rejecting NRMs (sects)

Niebuhr predicted that most sects were unlikely to survive beyond a

single generation because:

 Some were likely to change their characteristics, compromise their

beliefs and become denominations. For example, the death of a
charismatic leader sometimes results in sects evolving into
denominations as a hierarchy of paid officials emerge to manage the
religion. When L. Ron Hubbard, the charismatic leader of Scientology
died, a business model of leadership was adopted with a chief executive
in charge of a management team.

Methodism is a good example of a sect that became a

denomination. It was originally a very radical sect opposed to society
and conventional religions. Its members were mainly recruited from the
working-class and the poor. However, as its membership rose, it
developed a bureaucratic hierarchy to manage its large number of
chapels. As it became more successful, it attracted a lot of followers from
a middle-class background. Consequently it became a denomination
and its rejection of society and other religions was eventually watered
down.

However, Niebuhr argued that other sects would disappear altogether

because:

 Sect membership was based upon voluntary adult commitment.

However, once the first generation started having children, second-
generation members would not be able to sustain the enthusiasm
and commitment of the first generation.

 Sects that overly-rely upon a charismatic leader often do not survive

the death of that leader.

 Niebuhr argued that the ideology or beliefs of many sects contain

the seed of their own destruction. Sects often encourage their
members to work hard and save their money. As a result the

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 membership may become upwardly mobile and may no longer wish to
belong to a religious group which mainly caters for the poor.
Consequently, the sect would either need to change its beliefs and
accommodate this by becoming a denomination or die out
altogether.

 Some sects destroy themselves via mass suicide, e.g. the People’s
Temple, the Solar Temple, Heaven’s Gate.

However, Wallis disagrees with Niebuhr and rejects the view that sects are
inevitably short lived. He points out that some sects do survive for a long
time without becoming denominations.

For example, some sects cannot maintain their basic position in a

denominational form. Sects like the Jehovah’s Witnesses, Mormons and
Seventh Day Adventists are founded on the principle of separation from the
world in the expectation of the second coming. If these sects became
denominations, they would have to change this basic premise because
denominations are religious organisations that are fairly well-integrated into
society. In conclusion, separation from the world and denominationalism
are simply not compatible.

Wilson is also critical of Niebuhr because some sects, e.g. Quakers and
Pentecostalists, have been very successful in recruiting the children of
followers and integrating them into the sect. This has helped to keep
these groups isolated from secular influences in society at large.

(2) Internal ideology and the wider society

Wallis feels the chances of sects surviving, changing or disappearing are

affected both by the internal ideology of the sect and by the external
social circumstances.

(a) Wallis notes that world rejecting movements (sects) often change
their stance as time passes. Such groups often soften their
opposition to society and become more world accommodating
or denominational.

Wallis notes that charismatic leaders have difficulty retaining personal

control over a religious movement indefinitely and that this may result
in a ‘routinisation of charisma’. This means that a more
bureaucratic organisation develops so that some of the leader’s
personal authority becomes vested in his officials or representatives.

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 The Moonies or Unification Church has gone down this path now
Sun Myung Moon has died. Nevertheless, these changes may stop
well short of the sect becoming a denomination.

(b) Wallis also recognises that sects can disappear because of the
actions of their charismatic leaders. World-rejecting movements may
actually be destroyed by the charismatic leader as in the case of
Jim Jones insisting that all members of The People’s Temple commit
mass suicide or be destroyed by society, e.g. David Koresh’s
Branch Davidians or the Children of God.

(c) World-affirming movements (new-age cults) require less

sacrifice and commitment from members and for this reason are not
so likely to disappear. Instead they are vulnerable to a loss of
support from their consumers, i.e. they are subject to market
forces because they sell their services as a commodity.

Wallis notes that cults, especially those organised around New

Age ideas, are more likely to change to attract a new clientele
than to cease to exist. Wallis believes that world-affirming movements
are flexible and they can change relatively easily as they seek to
survive and prosper. Dianetics is a good example of this – this 1950s
cult lost popularity in the 1960s and re-invented itself as Scientology
in the 1970s. Cults may even ‘water down’ their beliefs to make
them more palatable to their consumers, i.e. to meet market
demand.

(d) World-accommodating movements, (e.g. Pentecostalism) are

the most stable type of NRMs and often continue for long periods
without major change.