Excel Templates to accompany Operations Management, Second Edition, Asia Globa

created by Lee Tangedahl

Copyright © 2014 by McGraw-Hill Education Asia. All rights reserved.
Supplement to Chapter Four - Reliability

Templates: Reliability Solved Problems

MTBF - Exponential Distribution
Service Life - Normal Distribution
Availability

Lecture Suggestions

Examples Example 1
Example 2
Example 3
Example 4

See Instructions template for complete instructions.

, Second Edition, Asia Global Edition
ahl
Asia. All rights reserved.

Solved Problem 2
Solved Problem 4
Solved Problem 6
Reliability
<Back Clear

0.9000 0.9200

0.9800 0.9000 0.9500

0 1 2 2

0.9800 0.9900 0.9960

 System
Reliability
0.9663192
 MTBF - Exponential

MTBF - Exponential Distribution

<Back 0.00000 0.25
Exponential Distribution
Parameter = 0.25 2.40000 0.1372029
MTBF = 4 4.80000 0.0752986
T= 4 0.3 a= 4 7.20000 0.0413247
DT = 1 9.60000 0.0226795
0.25 12.00000 0.0124468
14.40000 0.0068309
T / MTBF = 1 0.2 16.80000 0.0037489
P(failure before T) = 0.6321206 19.20000 0.0020574
P(failure after T) = 0.3678794 21.60000 0.0011291
0.15
24.00000 0.0006197
4
0.1 4

0.05

0
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.0
T

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 MTBF - Exponential

ribution

0
0.25

00 20.00 25.00 30.00

Page 6
 Service Life - Normal

Service Life - Normal Distribution

<Back 2.5 0.0008727
Normal Distribution
0.45 3.2 0.0079155
Service life mean = 6 3.9 0.0439836
Service life std dev = 1 0.4 4.6 0.1497275
T= 7 5.3 0.3122539
0.35
DT = 1 6 0.3989423
0.3 6.7 0.3122539
7.4 0.1497275
z= 1 0.25 8.1 0.0439836
P(failure before T) = 0.8413447 8.8 0.0079155
P(failure after T) = 0.1586553 0.2 9.5 0.0008727
7 0
0.15
7 0.3989423
0.1

0.05

0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
T

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 Service Life - Normal

ution

7 8 9 10

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Availability
<Back
Availability
MTBF = 200 0.9901
1
MTR = 2

0.8
Availability = 0.990099 1
1
0.6 1

0.4

0.2

0
 Lecture Suggestions - Supplement to Chapter 4
<Back

Example 3: Service Life - Normal Distribution

1. Select the Example 3 worksheet. The following data has been entered:

2. Enter data, service life mean = 6 years and standard deviation = 1 year (both given).

3. Parts a and b: you want to find P(failure before T) and P(failure after T) for T=7.

Specify the time T = 7

Point out on the graph that the vertical red line corresponds to T and the probability of
wearout before T is under the normal curve to the left of the red line and the probability of wearout
after T is under the normal curve to the right of the red line.

The actual probabilities, along with z (the number of standard deviations from the mean), are
also computed to the left of the graph.

You may want to use the spinner button beside T to demonstrate the probabilities of wearout for
different values of T.

4. Part c: you want to find the value for T where P(failure before T) = .10.

Trail and error approach:

As you make the changes below, watch P(failure before T), you want it to be equal to .1

Set DT = 1, use spinner button to find that necessary T is between 4 and 5

Set DT = .1, use spinner button to find that necessary T is between 4.7 and 4.8
Set DT = .01, use spinner button to find that necessary T is closest to 4.72.
Reliability
<Back Clear

0.9000 0.9200

0.9800 0.9000 0.9500

0 1 2 2

0.9800 0.9900 0.9960

 System
Reliability
0.9663192
 Example 2

MTBF - Exponential Distribution

<Back 0.00000 0.25
Exponential Distribution
Parameter = 0.25 2.40000 0.1372029
MTBF = 4 4.80000 0.0752986
T= 4 0.3 a= 4 7.20000 0.0413247
DT = 1 9.60000 0.0226795
0.25 12.00000 0.0124468
14.40000 0.0068309
T / MTBF = 1 0.2 16.80000 0.0037489
P(failure before T) = 0.6321206 19.20000 0.0020574
P(failure after T) = 0.3678794 21.60000 0.0011291
0.15
24.00000 0.0006197
4
0.1 4

0.05

0
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.0
T

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 Example 2

ribution

0
0.25

00 20.00 25.00 30.00

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 Example 3

Service Life - Normal Distribution

<Back 2.5 0.0008727
Normal Distribution
0.45 3.2 0.0079155
Service life mean = 6 3.9 0.0439836
Service life std dev = 1 0.4 4.6 0.1497275
T= 7 5.3 0.3122539
0.35
DT = 1 6 0.3989423
0.3 6.7 0.3122539
7.4 0.1497275
z= 1 0.25 8.1 0.0439836
P(failure before T) = 0.8413447 8.8 0.0079155
P(failure after T) = 0.1586553 0.2 9.5 0.0008727
7 0
0.15
7 0.3989423
For Example 3c: 0.1
use trial and error (changing T) or
use Goal Seek to set P(failure)=.10 0.05
by changing T
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
T

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 Example 3

ution

7 8 9 10

Page 16
Availability
<Back
Availability
MTBF = 200 0.9901
1
MTR = 2

0.8
Availability = 0.990099 1
1
0.6 1

0.4

0.2

0
Reliability
<Back Clear

0.8000

0.9000

0.9400

0 0 0 3

0.9988
 System
Reliability
0.9988
 Solved Problem 4

MTBF - Exponential Distribution

<Back 0.00000 0.1
Exponential Distribution
Parameter = 0.1 6.00000 0.0548812
MTBF = 10 12.00000 0.0301194
T= 5 0.12 a= 5 18.00000 0.0165299
DT = 1 24.00000 0.0090718
0.1 30.00000 0.0049787
36.00000 0.0027324
T / MTBF = 0.5 0.08 42.00000 0.0014996
P(failure before T) = 0.3934693 48.00000 0.000823
P(failure after T) = 0.6065307 54.00000 0.0004517
0.06
60.00000 0.0002479
5
0.04 5

0.02

0
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.0
T

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 Solved Problem 4

ribution

0
0.1

40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00

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 Solved Problem 6

Service Life - Normal Distribution

<Back 18000 4.3634E-07
Normal Distribution
0.00025 19400 3.9577E-06
Service life mean = 25000 20800 2.1992E-05
Service life std dev = 2000 22200 7.4864E-05
T= 27000 0.0002 23600 0.0001561
DT = 1000 25000 0.0001995
26400 0.0001561
0.00015 27800 7.4864E-05
z= 1 29200 2.1992E-05
P(failure before T) = 0.8413447 30600 3.9577E-06
P(failure after T) = 0.1586553 0.0001 32000 4.3634E-07
27000 0
27000 0.0001995

a. find P<27,000 - P<23,000 5E-05

b. find P<29,000 - P<26,000

0
c. use trial and error (changing T) or 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 30000 32000 340
use Goal Seek to set P(failure)=.04 T
by changing T

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 Solved Problem 6

ution

26000 28000 30000 32000 34000

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