The Threat of Geological Hazards around the World

The geological hazards addressed in this report include earthquakes, volcanic

eruptions, and landslides. In addition, the report refers to tsunamis, which are water
waves that can be induced by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides that
displace water. Although the processes associated with geological hazards are distinct
in many respects, there are many similarities as well, and their occurrences can, on
occasion, be closely linked. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions often trigger landslides
and sometimes ice or water flows. A spectacular instance of this occurred in Peru in
1970 when a magnitude 7.8 earthquake caused a debris avalanche to bury the towns of
Yungay and Ranrahirca killing about 18,000 people. Swelling of Kilauea volcano in
Hawaii caused the magnitude 7.2 earthquake near Kalapana in 1975. All three hazards
occurred in the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in the northwestern United States of
America, when an earthquake under the volcano started an enormous landslide from
the volcano edifice, which in turn triggered the eruption, leading to further landslides and
mud flows down valleys running off the volcano’s flanks. Large volcanic eruptions may
cause large floods by melting ice, as in the case of Iceland in 1996.

Geological hazards can cause enormous losses in property damage and human
casualties. In 1995, Kobe, Japan, was devastated by a magnitude 7 shock that killed
about 6,000 people. Almost 250,000 people died when a magnitude 7.8 earthquake
flattened Tangshan, China, in 1976. In the northwest U.S., Mount St. Helens leveled
surrounding forests and filled valleys with mud with an explosion in 1980. The 1991
eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines buried Clark Air Base under several feet of
ash, destroyed many villages with devastating mudflows, and continues to kill people
even now with further mudflows. The ongoing eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano on
the Caribbean island of Montserrat has disrupted life there and forced the evacuation of
Plymouth, the largest city. It is important to recall that tens of thousands of people in
Pompeii and Herculanum were killed with virtually no warning by volcanic eruptions;
such events today would be even more devastating with the greatly increased
population in the region. In 1985, Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia erupted,
triggering gigantic debris flows that killed about 25,000 people. In 1987, landslides in
Ecuador shredded the oil pipeline that brings that country’s primary source of income
from the Amazon Basin.

Although it is unrealistic to think that losses from geological hazards can be

eliminated, there is no doubt that measures exist, and have been used, to reduce their
impacts. The primary mitigation means are to site structures to avoid hazards and to
build structures to resist their effects. Such actions require that we anticipate where the
hazards are most likely to occur and to respond appropriately. In addition, under certain
circumstances, it is possible to detect when a geological hazard is beginning to occur,
which may make it possible to evacuate people from the threatened areas within days
or hours of the event’s onset and take steps to reduce destruction. For a general
summary and map of destructive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions see Tiedemann
(1991), and for an overview of earthquake and volcanic eruption risk assessment see
Tiedemann (1992). An overview about landslides is provided by United Nations
Development Program (1997), and on mudflows by United Nations (1996). For a
summary of approaches for coping with natural disasters, see UNDRO (1991).

The Prediction of Geological Hazards

In assessing early warning capabilities for geological hazards, it is important at

the outset to state clearly what is meant by the words „early“ and „warning“. Among
experts on geological hazards, a „warning“ usually is a recommendation or an order to
take an action, such as to evacuate an area. A „prediction“ or “forecast“, in contrast, is a
statement that a geological hazard of a specified nature will occur with a given
probability during a certain time frame in a prescribed geographic area. Usage of the
words prediction and forecast vary among the hazards and some scientists hold strong
opinions about this matter. Generally, prediction is used more commonly for
earthquakes, whereas forecast is preferred for volcanic eruptions. This difference is
reflected in sections of this report. In the following introductory discussion, the word
„prediction“ can be taken to be equivalent to „forecast“. Thus, a prediction, which is
usually made by a scientist, provides the basis for a warning, which is usually issued by
a government official. The meaning of „early“ depends on a person’s perspective and
responsibilities. With respect to predicting geological hazards, it can have a variety of
meanings, so some clarification will facilitate the ensuing discussion. Prediction
capabilities with respect to geological hazards are often categorized with respect to the
lead time as short term, intermediate term, or long term, or some equivalent terminology
involving the word forecasting. The meaning of these terms can vary depending on the
specific context of the discussion, and the distinctions can be blurred, but usually short
term refers to a time span of up to hours or perhaps a few days, intermediate term of up
to months or a few years, and long term on the order of decades or even an
indeterminate time.

Nature of Predictions

From another point of view, issuance of a short-term prediction depends on

observation of a physical change that provides a basis for estimating the culmination of
the process, whereas an intermediate-term prediction reflects a situation of unrest
without any indication of when the process might conclude, and a long-term prediction
indicates the increased likelihood of occurrence of an event over an extended time
frame.

Thus, a long-term prediction is more akin to expressing the potential for a hazard
to occur and is usually expressed in probabilistic terms. A statement that a magnitude 7
earthquake or a large volcanic eruption has a 50% chance of occurring in a specified
area within 30 years is an example of a long-term prediction. In this type of forecast,
there is usually no reason to believe that the event will occur sooner rather than later
during the time interval, which is similar to statements made by flood forecasters about
the 100-year flood. A long-term prediction can contribute to a hazard assessment, which
includes estimates of the effects of an earthquake in addition to information about its
likelihood.

In contrast, an intermediate-term prediction might be based on recognition of

some type of phenomena that is regarded to be precursory to the occurrence of a
geological hazard, but which does not indicate that the actual occurrence is imminent.
For example, land deformation (uplift, subsidence, cracking, etc.) or anomalous
seismicity, which has been observed before some earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and
landslides, might be recognized as signs of an impending event.

A short-term prediction, though, would require recognition of a distinctive

phenomenon that is believed to be part of the preparation process for the event and that
indicates in some sense when and where the event might finally happen, and how large
it might be. Thus, short-term predictions are more likely to be based on direct
observations of phenomena related to a physical process.

Landslides

Landslides, slumps and rockfalls are potential geologic hazards throughout

Missouri and can occur where there are bluffs or steep slopes. They often can be
triggered when surficial materials are moved or modified by man. In general, the higher
and steeper the slope, the farther and faster the slide will travel. Landslides and slumps
generally occur where there are steep slopes of unconsolidated material or thick soils.
Slopes with shale are also susceptible to landslides. Slumps appear as curved scars
along the slope and an uneven or unusually flat surface at the base of slopes. Slope
stability often is reduced by change in water tables or when heavy rains oversaturate
soils, by the removal of vegetation or by increased human activity. Modification of a
slope, such as cutting a road in a hillside, can cause problems, even on slopes that
appear stable. Care should be taken when modifying slopes or changing water’s natural
drainage course. Rockfalls are common hazards in areas that have bluffs or extremely
steep hillsides. The most hazardous are bluffs that contain thick beds of sandstone or
carbonate rock underlain by shale. The shale will often become soft and weather out,
leaving large pieces of balanced rock. Bluffs of highly fractured rock are also at great
risk for rockfalls. As with landslides and slumps, rockfalls are also more likely to occur
during times of heavy rains.

Landslides are a major threat to human settlements and infrastructure. The

surface of the Earth is very dynamic and constantly adjusting to storms, earthquakes,
and volcanic eruptions. Thousands of landslides occur annually, moving millions of tons
of soil and rock and according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red
Crescent Societies (1996) accounted for 1,550 deaths per year in the period 1969-1993.
Worldwide landslide deaths are increasing because of the increase in the world's
population particularly in landslide-prone developing countries.

Landslides are a regional and site problem which presents challenges in the
development of early warning systems and prediction. Disastrous regional landslide
events can be caused by heavy regional storms or strong earthquakes, for example,
landslides in the 1921 Kansu earthquake (China) may have killed in excess of 100,000
people. A single large, rapidly moving debris avalanche triggered by an earthquake in
1970 buried the towns of Yungay and Ranrahirca in Peru killing more than 18,000
people. A minor eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia in 1985 triggered mud
flows that destroyed the city of Armero, killing about 25,000 people. Landslides also
affect artificial slopes, such as the rapid flow of mine waste dumps that was responsible
for the 1966 Aberfan disaster in the United Kingdom causing 144 deaths. Many lateral
spread landslides in the 1906 San Francisco and 1995 Kobe earthquakes were due to
earthquake-induced liquefaction of artificially placed soil fills.

Of considerable importance is the hazard posed by the secondary effects of

landslides, for example, landslide-generated waves and the failure of landslide dams. In
1963, a landslide-generated wave overtopped the thin-arch Vaiont dam (Italy) and
resulted in a flood that was responsible for the loss of about 2,000 lives. Collapse of a
landslide dam on the Min River in Sichuan, China sent a flood torrent down the Min
River killing at least 2,500 people downstream. Although only a few large landslides
have caused major disasters (e.g., Yungay and Armero), the aggregate damage from
landslides worldwide is of disastrous proportions every year. In spite of improvements in
recognition, mitigative measures, and prediction and warning systems, worldwide
landslide damage is increasing (Schuster, 1996). This is due to due to:

i) increased urbanization and development in landslide-prone areas,

ii) development of new areas created by excavation, filling, and reclamation that are
potentially unstable,
iii) deforestation of landslide-prone areas,
iv) large seasonal (or multi-seasonal) variations in regional precipitation compared with
shortterm historical averages, and
v) agricultural practices, especially irrigation, and regulations.

Landslides can be triggered by many different external stimuli, including intense

rainfall, rapid melting of snow, earthquake shaking, volcanic eruption, storm waves,
rapid stream erosion, and human activities, such as excavation, irrigation, fluctuations in
reservoir levels or changes in agricultural practices (Wieczorek, 1996). These stimuli
can cause a nearly-immediate response in the form of a landslide by altering the
balance of stresses causing hillside instability. Storms that produce intense rainfall for
periods as short as several hours can trigger abundant landslides. A locally intense
storm during June of 1995 dropped up to 775 mm of rain within 16 hours triggering
more than 1,000 landslides within a small part of Madison County, Virginia. The rapid
infiltration of rainfall, causing soil saturation and a temporary rise in pore-water
pressures, reduces the strength of slope materials and is the mechanism by which most
shallow landslides are generated during storms. During earthquakes strong ground
shaking modifies the stress balance within slope materials triggering landslides. The
magnitude 7.5 Guatemala earthquake of 1976, generated at least 10,000 landslides
primarily in Pleistocene pumice deposits which have relatively low strength under
seismic shaking.

Landslides, which include many different types of slope movement, are difficult to
predict because they range over many orders of magnitude in size, from small boulders
to masses of earth/rock of several cubic kilometers, and in speed from creeping
movements of mm/year to extremely rapid avalanches that travel at several hundred
km/hr (Cruden and Varnes, 1996). Landslides also span the geologic-hydrologic
interface from completely dry materials to flows resembling wet concrete making the
characterization of material properties and analyses of their movements and behavior
very complex and difficult to predict.

Landslide Movements
Rock FALLS: Falls are abrupt movements of masses of geologic materials,
such as rocks and boulders, that become detached from steep slopes or cliffs.
Separation occurs along discontinuities such as fractures, joints, and bedding
planes, and movement occurs by free-fall, bouncing, and rolling. Falls are
strongly influenced by gravity, mechanical weathering, and the presence of
interstitial water.

TOPPLES: Toppling failures are distinguished by the forward rotation of a unit

or units about some pivotal point, below or low in the unit, under the actions of
gravity and forces exerted by adjacent units or by fluids in cracks.

FLOWS: There are five basic categories of flows that differ from one another
in fundamental ways.

a. Debris flow: A debris flow is a form of rapid mass movement in which a

combination of loose soil, rock, organic matter, air, and water mobilize as a
slurry that flows downslope. Debris flows include <50% fines. Debris flows are
commonly caused by intense surface-water flow, due to heavy precipitation or
rapid snowmelt, that erodes and mobilizes loose soil or rock on steep slopes.
Debris flows also commonly mobilize from other types of landslides that occur
on steep slopes, are nearly saturated, and consist of a large proportion of silt-
and sand-sized material. Debris-flow source areas are often associated with
steep gullies, and debris-flow deposits are usually indicated by the presence
of debris fans at the mouths of gullies. Fires that denude slopes of vegetation
intensify the susceptibility of slopes to debris flows.

b. Debris avalanche: This is a variety of very rapid to extremely rapid debris

flow.
c. Earthflow: Earthflows have a characteristic "hourglass" shape. The slope
material liquefies and runs out, forming a bowl or depression at the head. The
flow itself is elongate and usually occurs in fine-grained materials or clay-
bearing rocks on moderate slopes and under saturated conditions. However,
dry flows of granular material are also possible.

d. Mudflow: A mudflow is an earthflow consisting of material that is wet

enough to flow rapidly and that contains at least 50 percent sand-, silt-, and
clay-sized particles. In some instances, for example in many newspaper
reports, mudflows and debris flows are commonly referred to as "mudslides."

e. Creep: Creep is the imperceptibly slow, steady, downward movement of

slope-forming soil or rock. Movement is caused by shear stress sufficient to
produce permanent deformation, but too small to produce shear failure. There
are generally three types of creep: (1) seasonal, where movement is within
the depth of soil affected by seasonal changes in soil moisture and soil
temperature; (2) continuous, where shear stress continuously exceeds the
strength of the material; and (3) progressive, where slopes are reaching the
point of failure as other types of mass movements. Creep is indicated by
curved tree trunks, bent fences or retaining walls, tilted poles or fences, and
small soil ripples or ridges.

Sinkhole

Sinkholes are collapsed areas formed by the dissolution of carbonate bedrock or

collapse of underlying caves. They range in size from several square yards to hundreds
of acres and may be very shallow or hundreds of feet deep. Often, sinkholes are visible
from the ground surface as circular depressions or areas of internal drainage. Other
sinkholes may not be readily visible from the ground surface because they are plugged
or capped with soil or thin layers of rock. Development in areas prone to sinkhole
formation can be very dangerous. Collapse of the plug or cap can open the
underground void to the surface. Sinkholes may start as a small hole in the ground that
slowly grows to full size or may form in a sudden catastrophic collapse that occurs with
no warning. Collapsed sinkholes generally are steep-sided and very unstable. They
often experience continued slumping and collapse along their edges; therefore,
activities near sinkholes should be undertaken with great caution. When sinkholes form,
they can act as conduits for rapid surface water infiltration, often resulting in
groundwater contamination. Managing storm water runoff and waste disposal in
sinkhole-prone areas is important to maintaining good groundwater quality. Anyone
living in a sinkhole-prone area of the state who notices a collapse or hole opening
should first block off all access to the area, decide if there is an immediate safety threat
and, if so, contact their local emergency management personnel.

The Origin of Sinkhole

Sinkholes form in what Geologists call “karst terrain.” Karst terrain is a region
where the bedrock can be dissolved by ground water. Bedrock in a karst area typically
is limestone, dolomite (a rock similar to limestone but with magnesium along with the
calcium normally present in the minerals that form the rocks) or gypsum. Karst areas
are characterized by special features not present elsewhere: springs, caves, dry
streams that lose water underground, and sinkholes. These features all form because
water that is slightly acidic from absorbing carbon dioxide from the air and soil dissolves
the bedrock and forms pathways and channels in the rock.

These pathways, called conduits, are like underground plumbing that carries
water from the surface to springs located in valleys. Eventually, these conduits become
exposed by erosion and, if large enough, become caves.

Sometimes conduits are called underground rivers. Like a river system, they
have an area where the water collects and supplies the flow. For a surface river, this is
called the basin; for a conduit, it is called the “recharge area.” Conduits collect and
transport surface water (runoff) from the recharge area—which can range from a few
hundred square feet to hundreds of square miles—to springs where it rises to the
surface to join the more typical stream and river system. Sinkholes form in the recharge
area where the surface water is flowing into the subsurface and entering a conduit. 

When water from rainfall moves down through the soil and encounters bedrock in
karst terrain, the bedrock begins to dissolve along horizontal and vertical cracks and
crevices in the rock. Eventually, these cracks and crevices, which are the beginning of a
conduit system, become large enough to start transporting small soil particles. As these
small particles of soil are carried off, the surface of the soil above the conduit starts
slumping down gradually, and a small depression forms on the surface of the ground.
This small depression acts like a funnel and gathers even more water, which makes the
conduit larger and washes more soil into the conduit. Not all of the soil particles get
carried into the conduit; if the soil contains a large amount of clay, the conduit can
become plugged and the sinkhole may start to hold water and form a natural pond.

What makes a sinkhole collapse suddenly?

Catastrophic collapse sinkholes are more rare than the bowlshaped type, but
they are not uncommon. Between 1970 and 2007, the Missouri Department of Natural
Resources examined more than 160 collapses reported by the public. Most of these
collapses were small—less than 10 feet in diameter and 10 feet deep; some, however,
are quite large and spectacular. Sinkhole collapses drained a lake in the St. Louis,
Missouri, area, drained the West Plains, Missouri, sewage lagoon, and another in Nixa,
Missouri, swallowed a car along with the garage that it was parked in!

Collapses form in essentially the same way as the more common bowl-shaped
sinkholes. When the soil particles start washing into the conduit, the soil closer to the
ground surface does not slump down, but starts forming a bridge. A void forms where
the soil keeps washing into the conduit and, eventually, this hole grows large enough
that the soil above it can no longer bridge it. The soil bridge then suddenly collapses
into the void below and a sinkhole forms.

The process of forming a conduit and a soil bridge typically takes many years to
decades to form and can be aggravated by human activities. Since the process of
forming a sinkhole depends on water to carry away soil particles, anything that
increases the amount of water flowing into the subsurface can speed up this process.
Parking lots, streets, altered drainage from construction, and roof guttering are some
things that can increase runoff; even weather can make a difference.

Collapses are more frequent after intense rainstorms, and there is some
evidence that droughts play a role as well. Areas where the water table fluctuates or has
lowered suddenly are more prone to collapse formation. Collapses are not limited to
karst areas as they can form above old mines and even from -leaky pipes—though they
are much more frequent in areas that have significant karst development. 

Types of Sinkhole

DISSOLUTION SINKHOLES

Dissolution of the limestone or dolomite is most intensive where the water first contacts the
rock surface. Aggressive dissolution also occurs where flow is focused in preexisting openings in the
rock, such as along joints, fractures, and bedding planes, and in the zone of water-table fluctuation
where groundwater is in contact with the atmosphere.

Rainfall and surface water percolate through joints in the limestone. Dissolved carbonate rock
is carried away from the surface and a small depression gradually forms. On exposed carbonate
surfaces, a depression may focus surface drainage, accelerating the dissolution process. Debris
carried into the developing sinkhole may plug the outflow, ponding water and
creating wetlands. Gently rolling hills and shallow depressions caused by solution sinkholes are
common topographic features throughout much of Florida.

COVER-SUBSIDENCE SINKHOLES

Cover-subsidence sinkholes tend to develop gradually where the covering sediments are
permeable and contain sand. In areas where cover material is thicker, or sediments contain more
clay, cover-subsidence sinkholes are relatively uncommon, are smaller, and may go undetected for
long periods.

1. Granular sediments spall into secondary openings in the underlying carbonate rocks.

2. A column of overlying sediments settles into the vacated spaces (a process termed “piping”).
3. Dissolution and infilling continue, forming a noticeable depression in the land surface.
 4. The slow downward erosion eventually forms small surface depressions 1 inch to several
feet in depth and diameter.

COVER-COLLAPSE SINKHOLES

Cover-collapse sinkholes may develop abruptly (over a period of hours) and cause
catastrophic damages. They occur where the covering sediments contain a significant amount of
clay. Over time, surface drainage, erosion, and deposition of sinkhole into a shallower bowl-shaped
depression.

1. Sediments spall into a cavity

2. As spalling continues, the cohesive covering sediments form a structural arch. 
3. The cavity migrates upward by progressive roof collapse.
4. The cavity eventually breaches the ground surface, creating sudden and dramatic sinkholes.