SPECIAL TASK FORCE FOR UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS

BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
(SKK MIGAS)

Potensi Pasokan Gas Bumi Dalam

Mendukung Pemanfaatan Gas Untuk
Kebutuhan Dalam Negeri
Oleh:
Widhyawan Prawiraatmadja
Deputi Pengendalian Komersial SKK Migas

Disampaikan pada Forum Diskusi BPH Migas dengan Stakeholders Tahun 2014
Yogyakarta, 3 Oktober 2014
©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 OUTLINE

• Kebutuhan dan Ketersediaan Gas Indonesia

• Kesiapan Infrastruktur Gas Bumi
• Tantangan dan Kesempatan Pengelolaan
Gas Bumi Indonesia
• Kesimpulan

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Untuk Memenuhi Kebutuhan Energi Indonesia Utilisasi Gas Bumi Menyumbang 20%
atau Meningkat dari 600 MBOEPD pada 2010 menjadi 1405 MBOEPD pada 2025

Energy Mix 2005 Energy Mix 2010 Energy Mix 2025

NRE, 5.0%
Gas, 22.2%
Coal, 16.8%

2620 2984 7134

MBOEPD MBOEPD MBOEPD

Oil, 56.0%
source: National Energy Council’s Low Case scenario of energy demand (efficiency case)
©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Realisasi Bauran Energi Indonesia
2007-2012
1,400,000.00

1,200,000.00

1,000,000.00

800,000.00
MBOE

600,000.00

400,000.00

200,000.00

0.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Energi Terbarukan Batubara Gas Bumi Minyak Bumi
Sumber : Dewan Energi Nasional

Utiliasi gas bumi meningkat dari 183624 MBOE pada 2007 menjadi 275950 MBOE pada 2012

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Indonesia hanya mempunyai 1,6% cadangan gas dunia,
sementera produksi gas Indonesia 2,1% produksi gas dunia
Gas Proved Reserves

Iran
Russian Federation
Qatar
Turkmenistan
US
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Venezuela
Nigeria
Algeria
Australia
Iraq
China
Indonesia
Norway
Canada
Egypt
Kuwait
Libya 103.3 TCF / 1.6
%
Kazakhstan

-100 100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300

(Tcf)
Source: BP Statistical Review 2014
©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Gas merupakan sumber daya alam tidak terbarukan sehingga jika
konsumsi lebih besar dari penemuan sumber cadangan gas baru
maka produksi gas akan menurun secara alamiah

Cadangan gas Indonesia adalah

sebesar 1,6% cadangan gas dunia
(bp statistical review 2014)
50.18

14.25
23.46
33.7 2.56

15.21
GAS RESERVES (TSCF) 10.61
PROVEN (P1) = 99.77
POTENTIAL (P2+P3) = 50.21
TOTAL (3P) = 149.98

Peta Cadangan Gas Nasional

STATUS 31.12.2013
(bubble map per area – scaled bubble map)
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
 MBOEPD

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800

200
400
600
800
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
Peak 1977

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
Dominated by Oil

1988
1989
Plateau stage

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Peak 1995

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Dominated by Gas

1,598.00

2014
2015
2016
Oil

7
GAS

2017
PROFIL PRODUKSI MIGAS INDONESIA
1966-2017
 Forecast DEN : Kebutuhan Gas tahun 2025 diperkirakan sebesar 20% dari Bauran Energi Nasional (7134 BOE), yaitu sebesar ~ 8249 BBTUD
Source: SKK Migas dan Tim Neraca Gas Indonesia

PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 8

 Realisasi & Outlook (2000 – 2050)
Profil Produksi Minyak dan Gas Bumi
1,600 HISTORY FORECAST

1,415
1391
Oil Gas
1,400 1,341
1,318 1,313
1,252
12861279
1250 1250
1,278
1,248
1,272 Catatan:
1231 1,2401,2321,224 1,242
1185
1208 1,202 • Peak of Banyu Urip Field at 2015
1,200 1,147 1,141 • Peak of IDD Gas Production in 2018
1120
1,096
1077 1,062
1,030 • Peak of Bukit Tua Production in 2016
992 1,006
1,000 977
• Ande-Ande Lumut Production in 2017
RIBU BOEPD

954 949 945 948

902
860
905
866 • Masela Production in 2019
845 833
824 818
802 • Tangguh Train-3 Production in 2019
800 764 754
710 708
666
• Decline of Oil Production: 6% p.a
653
603 626 588
• Decline of Gas Production: 6% p.a
600 556 553
519 520
484 489
459
Cadangan Minyak RI s/d 2013 453
426 432
406
400
376 382
400 354
332
359
337
312 317
294 276 298 280
259 244 263 247
229 216 233 219
203 190 206 193
179 168 182 171
200 158 149
140 131 123
116 109 103
96

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Minyak (MBOPD) 845 905 833 764 710 653 603 556 519 484 453 426 400 376 354 332
Gas (MMSCFD) 6989 7504 7392 7784 7448 7168 6888 6608 6328 6104 5880 4220 3967 3729 3505 3295
Gas (MBOEPD) 1248 1340 1320 1390 1330 1280 1230 1180 1130 1090 1050 754 708 666 626 588
Minyak + Gas (MBOEPD) 2093 2245 2153 2154 PRIVATE
2040 1933 AND CONFIDENTIAL
1833 1736 1649 1574 1503 1179 1109 1042 980 9 921
 Fase Pengembangan Lapangan

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Waktu Komersialisasi Pengembangan
Lapangan Gas Meningkat Secara Signifikan

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Sejak 2013, Produksi Gas Indonesia Digunakan Lebih Besar
Untuk Memenuhi Kebutuhan Domestik Dibandingkan Untuk Ekspor
5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000
BBTUD

2,500
4,416
4,397

4,336
4,202

4,078
4,008

3,981
3,820

3,775

3,774
2,000

3,681

3,631
3,550

3,416
3,402
3,379
3,323

3,267
2,913
1,500

2,527
2,341

1,000
1,513
1,480

1,466

500

-
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Source: SKK Migas Ekspor Domestik * Based of january to june 2014 Realization

Utilisasi gas untuk memenuhi kebutuhan gas domestik meningkat secara signifikan dari 1480
BBTUD pada tahun 2003 menjadi 3981 BBTUD pada tahun 2014, hal ini menunjukan kebutuhan
domestik menjadi prioritas pemenuhan kebutuhan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi
©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Pemanfaatan Gas Bumi Indonesia Tahun 2013
Domestic LNG Domestic LPG 3%

2,434.00
Realisasi Kontrak

2,434.00
3% 3,000

1,748.00
2,500

1,346.05

1,061.50
1,103.78
2,000
Electricity

735.40
BBTUD

968.32
912.42
1,500

735.84
13%

185.00
412.50

249.00
342.02
1,000

249.00
185.00
4.50
3.51

3.21
0.59
500

Fertilizer -

Kelistrikan

LNG Domestik
Industri

Ekspor Gas Pipa

City Gas
Lifting Minyak
Pupuk

Transportasi

LPG Domestik

LNG Ekspor
10%

BBG
Export LNG 34%

Realization Contract
%
(BBTUD) (BBTUD)
Industry
19% Electricity 912.42 1,103.78 82.7%
Fertilizer Plant 735.84 735.40 100.1%
Industry 1,346.05 1,736.47 77.0%
Oil Lifting 342.02 412.50 82.9%
City Gas 0.59 3.51 16.8%
Export Pipeline Transportation 3.21 4.50 71.4%
13% Domestic LNG 185.00 185.00 100.0%
Oil Lifting Domestic LPG 249.00 249.00 100.0%
5% Pipeline Export 968.32 1,061.50 91.2%
LNG Export 2,434.00 2,434.00 100.0%
City Gas TOTAL 7,176.45 7,937.09
BBG Transportasi 0% DOMESTIC TOTAL 3,774.13 4,441.59
0% EXPORT TOTAL 3,402.32 3,495.50

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 OUTLINE

• Kebutuhan dan Ketersediaan Gas Indonesia

• Kesiapan Infrastruktur Gas Bumi
• Tantangan dan Kesempatan Pengelolaan
Gas Bumi Indonesia
• Kesimpulan

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Infrastruktur gas bumi baik pipa, LNG dan CNG saat ini sedang
dibangun secara berkesinambungan untuk meningkatkan akses
konsumen domestik terhadap rantai pasokan energi

Planned LNG Receiving Terminal

Existing Pipeline CNG Plant
Planned Pipeline LNG Plant
Gas Supply: Gas Demand:
Arun Regas
Capacity: 3 MTPA Potential Potential
On stream Q1 2015 Project Commited
Existing Contracted

FSRU Lampung
Capacity: 2 MTPA
On stream July 2014
Allocation in 2014: 5 cargoes
(Tangguh) Capacity 22 MTPA
Allocation in 2015: 14 cargoes
(Tangguh) FSRU Nusantara Regas
Capacity: 3 MTPA
On stream Mid of 2012
Allocation in 2014: 27 cargoes (Bontang &
Tangguh)
Allocation in 2015: 27 cargoes (Bontang & Capacity 2 MTPA Train 1&2 Capacity 3.8 MTPA
Tangguh) Train 3 Capacity 3.8 MTPA

FSU Banten FSRU Jateng dan Cilacap

Capacity: 3 MTPA Capacity: 4.5 MTPA
On stream Q1 2016
Capacity 2.5 MTPA

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 OUTLINE

• Kebutuhan dan Ketersediaan Gas Indonesia

• Kesiapan Infrastruktur Gas Bumi
• Tantangan dan Kesempatan Pengelolaan
Gas Bumi Indonesia
• Kesimpulan

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Tantangan Integrasi Perencanaan Pasokan Gas,
Infrastruktur Gas dan Kebutuhan Gas

CURRENT
CURRENT CURRENT
Limited Capacity
Conventional gas Oil Lifting Electricity
Unintegrated
Large Field Fertilizer Industry
FUTURE
FUTURE
Hub-to-hub
Marginal fields FUTURE
Shipper vs transporter
Non conventional gas Transportation
Integration with Power
Deepwater City gas
Gas storage
Import of LNG Mine-mouth Consumer
LNG Trades

MORE EFFICIENT, MORE “LIQUID”, MORE FLEXIBLE

Koordinasi yang baik antara pembeli gas dan pemilik infrastruktur (daya utilisasi gas
yang baik, penggunaan pipa bersama, integrasi pipa dan LNG) akan mendorong
pengembangan lapangan gas yang stranded dan belum ekonomis sebelumnya, hal ini
perlu di dukung oleh penyusunan regulasi oleh pemerintah
©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 Tantangan mempertahankan keekonomian pengembangan lapangan gas
terutama pada wilayah Indonesia timur untuk menyesuaikan dengan
peningkatan daya beli gas pembeli domestik

• Keekonomian proyek lapangan Economics of Gas Field Development

dipengaruhi oleh
25
– Besaran investasi (teknologi,

Rerata Harga Gas Pipa Domestik

Rerata Harga Gas LNG Domestik

geografis dan kondisi subsurface)
– Besaran biaya operasi 20
– Cashflow/Time value of Money
• Kondisi harga pasar di wilayah 15

IRR (%)
sekitar
• Infrastuktur di wilayah sekitar 10
• Supply dan demand di wilayah
sekitar 5
• Meningkatnya daya beli domestik
akan mendorong pengembangan 0
lapangan yang sebelumnya tidak 0
Source: SKK Migas 5Gas Price (US$/MSCF)
10
ekonomis *The bubble scales are representing the field gas reserves based on POD approval.

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 OUTLINE

• Kebutuhan dan Ketersediaan Gas Indonesia

• Kesiapan Infrastruktur Gas Bumi
• Tantangan dan Kesempatan Pengelolaan
Gas Bumi Indonesia
• Kesimpulan

©2014 SKK Migas. All rights reserved. The information consist in this document is exclusively designed and prepared for LNG Supplies for Asian Markets (LNGA) 2014 purposes only. No part of this publication can be reproduced,
stored in an information access system, used in a spreadsheet, or distributed in any format or media – electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other form – without the written permission from SKK Migas
 KESIMPULAN

1. Gas merupakan sumber daya alam tidak terbarukan, sehingga pemanfaatan gas
harus dilaksanakan secara efisien dan optimal.

2. Pembangunan Infrastruktur gas bumi/LNG/LPG untuk kepentingan domestik perlu

diprioritaskan dan mendapat perhatian lebih, karena hal ini akan meningkatkan
optimalisasi penggunaan gas domestik.

3. Peningkatan kemampuan daya beli gas domestik akan meningkatkan jumlah

lapangan-lapangan marjinal untuk dapat dikembangkan yang sebelumnya tidak
dikembangkan karena pertimbangan keekonomian lapangan

PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL

 SPECIAL TASK FORCE FOR UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS
BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
(SKK Migas)

HEAD OFFICE PO BOX 4775

Wisma Mulia LG, 21, 22, 23, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 33, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40 Telephone : +62 21 2924 1607
Jalan Jenderal Gatot Subroto Kav. 42, Jakarta 12710, INDONESIA Facsimile : +62 21 2924 9999
21
 ALOKASI GAS BUMI KEPADA PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO)
UNTUK BBG TRANSPORTASI
(KEPMEN ESDM NOMOR: 2435 K/15/MEM/2014 TANGGAL 23 APRIL 2014)
Vol Kondisi berdasarkan KEPMEN ESDM Nomor: 2261
NO Lokasi Jangka Waktu
(MMSCFD) K/12/MEM/2013
• Sumber Gas : PT Pertamina EP, PT Medco E&P
DKI JAKARTA, Indonesia, PHE ONWJ, PGN, JOB Pertamina
1 BANTEN, JAWA 24 Talisman Jambi Merang
BARAT • Total Volume untuk Jabodetabek : 23,1 MMSCFD
• Jangka waktu PJBG setiap KKKS tidak sama
2 JAWA TENGAH 1 Sumber pasokan gas masih dalam evaluasi

• Sumber Gas : PHE WMO, Santos (Madura

Tahun 2014 – 2019 Offshore)
3 JAWA TIMUR 10,2
• Total Volume : 10,2 MMSCFD
• Jangka waktu PJBG KKKS tidak sama

SUMATERA • Sumber Gas : PT Pertamina EP, SP2J

4 1,5
SELATAN • Total Volume untuk Palembang : 1,85 MMSCFD

KALIMANTAN Usulan sumber pasokan gas dari Chevron Indonesia

5 1
TIMUR Company

TOTAL 37,7
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL 22