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Theory,of,Change,Basics
A,PRIMER,ON,THEORY,OF,CHANGE
Dana,H.,Taplin,,Ph.D.
Heléne,Clark,,Ph.D.
March,2012
1
Theory of Change Basics
August 26, 2011 Volume VII

Introduction
Theory of transparent so that everyone involved knows what
change is a is happening and why. To be clear, every outcome in
rigorous yet the theory is explicitly defined. All outcomes should
participatory be given one or more indicators of success. As
process implementation proceeds, organizations collect and
whereby analyze data on key indicators as a means of
groups and monitoring progress on the theory of change.
stakeholders in Indicator data show whether changes are taking
a planning place as forecast or not. Using the indicator data
process program staff can adjust and revise their change
articulate their model as they learn more about what works and
long-term goals what does not.
and identify the
Rationales in a theory of change explain the
conditions they
connections between the outcomes and why one
believe have to
unfold for outcome is needed to achieve another.
Assumptions explain the contextual
those goals to
be met. These underpinnings of the theory. Often, rationales and
conditions are assumptions are supported by research,
strengthening the plausibility of the theory and the
modeled as
desired likelihood that its stated goals can be achieved1. The
graphic model in theory of change is accompanied
outcomes, arranged graphically in a causal
framework. by a written narrative that explains the logic of
the framework.
A theory of change describes the types of
Theory of change can be both a planning and issue-
interventions (a single program or coordinated
initiative) that bring about the outcomes depicted in framing tool and a monitoring and evaluation tool.
In articulating long-term outcomes, preconditions,
the outcomes framework map. Each intervention is
and interventions, ToC forms the basis of visioning
tied to an outcome in the causal framework,
revealing the often complex web of activity required papers, strategic and/or annual plans, and goal-setting
processes. As an evaluation tool ToC identifies the
to bring about change. The framework provides a
working model against which to test hypotheses and specific goals of the program and ties those goals to
particular interventions. Data can then be collected
assumptions about what actions will best produce
to evaluate progress toward the stated goals as well
the outcomes in the model.
as the effectiveness of interventions in producing
Adherence to the theory of change method keeps outcomes.
the processes of implementation and evaluation
© 2012-2013. ActKnowledge, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprints by permission only at: info@actknowledge.org
2
ToC maps out your initiative through stages:
Identifying long-term goals and the assumptions behind them

Backwards mapping from the long-term goal by working out the preconditions or requirements
necessary to achieve that goal--and explaining why.
Voicing your assumptions about what exists in the system without which your theory won’t work, and
articulating your rationales for why outcomes are necessary preconditions to other outcomes.
Weighing and choosing the most strategic interventions to bring about your desired change.
Developing indicators to measure progress on your desired outcomes and assess the performance of
your initiative.
Quality review should answer three basic questions: Is your theory 1) plausible, 2) “doable” (or feasible),
and 3) testable?
Writing a narrative to explain the summary logic of your initiative.
2. Long-term framework are preconditions for audience. Perhaps the most

achieving this outcome. important step in the entire ToC
Outcome process is getting the long-term
An outcome is a state or Often, a group has a vision of
outcome right. The long-term
condition that does not currently change that transcends what they
outcome is what you are trying to
exist but must be in place for your can achieve through their own
achieve. A clear, compelling long-
initiative to work. An outcome efforts. In that case we put a
term outcome helps keep people
may represent a change in a group dashed line, called an
focused and motivated. It is for
of people, organizations, or places. “accountability ceiling,” above the
this that stakeholders are doing all
Outcomes are the building blocks LTO (e.g. stable employment) and
the hard work.Your entire first
of your Theory of Change. The have an ultimate goal (e.g. end of
ToC meeting may be spent getting
Long-term Outcome (LTO) is the poverty in the community).Your
everyone to agree on the long-
goal you want to reach, which is group will not hold itself
term outcome.
the purpose of your program, e.g. accountable for this goal, but it
academic achievement for youth, may be important to link your In facilitating ToC-building
or employment for a certain efforts to it in the causal sessions, we often start with
group. All other outcomes on your framework to communicate your trying to elicit a problem
vision to your own staff and statement from the group. The
partners as well as to a broader problem statement is the core
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issue that everybody at the table is statement to derive its positive Make sure that everyone has the
trying to address, such as poverty opposite. Since all outcome same definition of the long-term
or poorly achieving students or statements should be positive outcome. In the example about
neighborhood crime. We have the statements about a condition, the making a neighborhood safe, it is
group get very specific about that group can ask what condition will critical that everyone agree on
the problem and its boundaries result from the removal of the what “safe” means, and on the
(where and for whom) for the problem. A safe neighborhood, for boundaries of the neighborhood.
purposes of this initiative. example, is the long-term outcome When the group reaches
for a problem statement about consensus about the long-term
Once the group has decided on
neighborhood violent crime. outcome and how it is defined,
the appropriate problem
record it.
statement, they should use the
3. Causal Pathways and Backwards Mapping

A pathway is the sequence in which outcomes must Most initiatives have multiple pathways that lead to
occur to reach your long-term goal. Pathways are the long-term outcome. For example, there might be
depicted by vertical chains of outcomes connected to a law enforcement pathway, a community involvement
one another by arrows, proceeding from early pathway, and a community resources pathway that
outcomes at the bottom to longer-term outcomes at together lead to safe neighborhoods via a series of
the top. Pathways represent a causal logic; each level preconditions.
along the pathway depicts the chain of outcomes that
Sometimes in an outcomes framework we represent
must come into being for the next outcome up the
certain preconditions that belong together in a
chain to be achieved.
category as a cluster. The clustering shows a group of
A key component of the ToC experience is the preconditions that belong together conceptually and
process of “backwards mapping,” beginning with your that interact with one another. All together, they
long-term outcome and working back toward the function as a joint precondition to outcomes farther
earliest changes that need to occur. This is the along on the framework. Rendering them in a cluster
opposite of how we usually think about planning, avoids the need to draw arrows from each
because it starts with asking “What preconditions precondition to outcomes farther up the hierarchy.
must exist for the long-term outcome to be The cluster shows interdependence among the
reached?” rather than with “What activities can we be individual preconditions without requiring us to
doing to advance our goals?” That comes later in the diagram the internal causal relationships.
process.
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An Outcomes Framework
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4. Assumptions and Rationales
In ToC, assumptions are conditions or resources difference between them is that assumptions are
that your group believes are needed for the success already in place and do not need to be brought
of your program, and which you believe already about--in other words, conditions you take for
exist and will not be problematic to maintain. granted. It is important to air and discuss the
Assumptions and preconditions are both conditions assumptions going in as wrong assumptions can
that are necessary for your program’s success. The undermine your theory of change.
Probing for often-implicit theory wouldn’t work, because as another chance to make clear
assumptions in a group setting can the lack of transportation would the assumptions your group is
reveal the different understandings become a barrier to employment. making about the world for your
and beliefs that people bring to theory to be successful.
During the process of creating the
the effort. Bringing assumptions
long-term outcome and drilling Rationales explain the logic behind
to the surface and developing a
down into precondition pathways, each causal relationship on the
consensus on which assumptions
participants should articulate as pathway. Many of these will come
are true is a critically important
many of their assumptions about out naturally in conversation
foundation for constructing an
the change process as they can so when someone suggests a
achievable theory of change. So,
that they can be examined and precondition. Try to capture these
for example, in a ToC about
even tested to determine which as they come out.You may want
creating employment in a
key assumptions may be hard to to elicit clear rationales when
community, a precondition may be
support or unrealistic. The there is disagreement among the
that suitable, decent-paying jobs
facilitator needs to be listening for group about whether something
exist. Your initiative will take
assumptions and challenging the truly is a precondition. After all
action to bring that about. The
group to discuss them. You may the preconditions in the
group may also be assuming that
be able to capture these framework have been identified,
the existing public transportation
assumptions as they come out in review the logic with the group to
which people need to get to the
conversation.You should also do capture any rationales that did not
job locations will continue to
this when you think the outcomes come out during the pathway
operate. That doesn’t need to be
framework is complete, as a check development process.
a precondition; the transportation
on the logic of the pathways and
is there. But if it weren’t the
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5. Interventions
Interventions are the things your program or group space and teachers, choosing a curriculum, screening
of stakeholders will undertake to bring about students, etc.
outcomes. Sometimes people use the terms
Interventions can be located on an outcomes
“strategy” or “activity." We use strategy to mean a
framework by means of symbols positioned along the
coordinated sequence of interventions, using a
connectors. The appropriate place to locate an
variety of tools and calculated for optimal leverage,
intervention symbol is on the connector that leads
to bring about the desired outcomes. We use activity
from the precondition to the outcome that
to describe all the specific actions that make up an
precondition helps to produce. Some interventions
intervention. So, for example, an intervention might
may contribute to multiple outcomes. In that case,
be “literacy classes” and the various activities needed
you should locate those interventions in all the
to make that happen would be things like identifying
appropriate places.
In the TOC process, we After the outcomes framework them in. You may have to concede
deliberately ask groups to hold off has been completed the group can that the program or activity does
on interventions—i.e., what meet to plot the interventions. If not help advance toward your
they’re going to do--until they the program is already operating, long-term outcome. Or, it may
have identified what needs to you can start by mapping all the suggest that you have missed an
happen (what outcomes need to interventions your program is outcome in developing your
be produced). This way, only currently undertaking to the framework. After mapping
those interventions that best outcomes they are meant to existing interventions, or if your
contribute to the accomplishment contribute to. Don’t force program is new, walk through the
of outcomes are included in the interventions that do not readily framework to identify places
theory. This also allows the group directly contribute to the where an intervention is
to see just where each outcomes on the framework. necessary and decide which
intervention fits into the big Existing programs may find a intervention would best
picture. home in the theory but if they accomplish this.
don’t, it’s best not to shoehorn
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6. Indicators
Indicators are the measurable evidence of meeting a ✓ How much does your target group need to
goal, usually visible signs, (e.g. reading scores, change? In other words, how good is “good
attendance) that demonstrate that the outcome has enough”? For example, if students improve reading
been fulfilled. Indicators can involve quantitative scores by one grade, is that sufficient? Or how
measures or qualitative information. Each indicator many sessions must participants attend of a class
needs to have four targets: How many of who or what or workshop to attain the skill being taught?
will reach what level by when? Again, the level or quality of necessary change is
determined by what you believe is needed to fulfill
✓ How many of your population do you expect will
the outcome.
change based on your initiative? For example, do
you expect 80 percent of students in a school to ✓ By when does the outcome need to be reached at
reach your goal? Or do you expect to find jobs for the level and for the number of people you have
100 residents? As with all components of specified? The timeline for reaching any given
indicators, the goal for your population should be outcome depends on the timeline for reaching the
set by combining your vision for change with a outcomes above and below it on the pathway. So,
realistic assessment of your resources. Indicator for example, if residents will not have completed a
targets should be based on how many or what literacy class until the end of the year, it is
proportion of people or behavior need to change unrealistic to expect to see an increase in literacy
for the outcome to be fulfilled. rates any earlier. Likewise, if the long-term
outcome is that parents read to their children
✓ Who or what needs to change? For example, are
within three years, you can work backwards to
we talking about third graders in a particular
determine by when they need to have increased
school district, or maybe health clinics in the state?
literacy and motivation.
Ideally each outcome in the indicator can be assumed to classrooms are a precondition to
theory will have multiple serve as a proxy for other improving a school’s reading
indicators and the initiative will outcomes on the pathway. scores, the indicators for that
have the capacity to collect data might be to have two new
Factors to be considered in
on them all. In reality, an computers and a new set of class
identifying indicators include
organization or collaborative will books for 8 of 12 classrooms
what data are readily accessible
have limited resources for within a year.
as well as what types of
monitoring and evaluation.
information will be most Typically, indicators are
While ActKnowledge
convincing, both within the group determined at two different
recommends that basic
and to outside audiences. For times during the TOC
indicators be identified for all
each indicator that you develop, construction phase. One is
outcomes in the theory, we
remember to develop all of its during the construction of the
realize that groups may choose
targets (i.e. how many, who or precondition pathways.
to fully develop and collect data
what, what level, by when). Your Sometimes, it can be very helpful
on a chosen subset of indicators.
indicator should make it to stop and develop an indicator
The choice of which indicators
extremely clear to everyone for an outcome that the group
to put into operation will
what you will consider success may be unclear about or there is
depend on your means,
for a given outcome. For some disagreement about.
availability of data, and whether
example, if better equipped Developing an indicator spelling
the outcome associated with this
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out measurable success for the several participants and assign then review. Indicator
outcome will force the group to development of indicators as development doesn’t tend to
be on the same page about that homework, then come back and lend itself to group meetings.You
outcome. review them together as a often need to refer to external
group.You might also assign sources to see what others have
The other time is after all the
development of the indicators to used as indicators for various
outcomes have been identified.
the researchers among the outcomes or to find out what
At this point, you may want to
group and have the whole group data are available, etc.
divide the outcomes between
7. Quality Review Will these indicators

be sufficient to make
Quality review should answer three basic questions: corrections in your
Is your theory 1) plausible, 2) “doable” (or feasible), course toward the
and 3) testable? LTO and to evaluate
Plausibility refers to the logic of your pathways. Does success of your
it make sense? Are the outcomes in the right order? program? Will they
Are preconditions actually preconditions to the be convincing to
outcomes you’ve indicated? Are there big gaps in the necessary audiences?
logic? Quality review should be an ongoing process during
Feasibility refers to how realistic it is that your the construction of your theory.Your group should
program and/or initiative can achieve your long-term constantly be referring to the appropriate quality
outcome. Do you have the resources to implement review questions. During the construction phase,
all the interventions you’ve specified? Do you need you may want to invite outside reviewers, either
to bring in additional partners? Do you need to with content-specific expertise or as key power
adjust the scope, expectations or timeline of your brokers, to provide feedback on your theory. Finally,
theory? there should be a formal quality review going over
the entire theory after you have finished all the
Testability refers to how well you have crafted your components.
indicators. Have you identified solid, measurable
indicators that can be evaluated in a timely manner?
8. Narrative
The narrative is a summary of your theory that explains the pathways of change, highlights some of your
major assumptions, rationales, and interventions, and presents a compelling case as to how and why your
initiative expects to make a difference. The narrative may also contain some information that is additional to
what is in your theory, such as your overall vision, the history of how your initiative came to be, and some
community context. The purpose of the narrative is twofold: (1) to convey the major elements of your
theory easily and quickly to others; (2) to better understand how the elements of the theory work as a
whole. Narratives should be kept to one or two pages.
After you have completed all the elements of your ToC, have someone try to draft an executive summary, in
plain English, that describes the highlights of your ToC. Then, have the group review it to see if it does capture
key elements and explanations of the theory that are enough to make a compelling case without all the
details.

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ActKnowledge,

August 26, 2011 Volume VII

ToC maps out your initiative through stages:

Identifying long-term goals and the assumptions behind them

2. Long-term framework are preconditions for audience. Perhaps the most

3. Causal Pathways and Backwards Mapping

7. Quality Review Will these indicators

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