June 2020

Adapting Marketing
Mix Models to
Major Shifts
LE AR N AC TI ONA BLE WAYS TO UPDATE MO D E LS W H E N UN E X PEC TE D
E V E N TS AFFEC T CONSUM ER BE H AV I O R, AN D H OW I N D US TRY
LE ADE RS A RE PI VOTI NG I N RE S PO N S E TO TH E C OV I D -1 9 O UTBRE A K .
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts 2

Contents

01 . I NTROD UC TI ON

Current challenges advertisers face in modelling. 03

02. BU I LDI NG MARKETI N G MI X MO D E LS

FO R TODAY’S COND I TI ON S

How to determine unique business impact, capture more 05

granular data, and more.

03. IND USTRY PERSPEC TI V E

Industry leaders discuss how they’ve changed their approach 09

to modeling.

© Facebook company Facebook IQ

Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
01. Introduction
BU I LDIN G MORE FUTURE-FOCUS E D MO D E LS
Marketing mix models have long been an
important tool for advertisers to understand
how their marketing impacts performance
across channels. MMMs rely on historical
data, events, and circumstances to generate
insights that can be used to make more
informed decisions around ad spend. As the
COVID-19 pandemic continues to influence
consumer behavior—changing demand for
products and services, media time spent,
and consumption patterns—advertisers are
faced with the challenge of adjusting their
models to understand changing business
environments.
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
3
By updating their models, advertisers can use
them to help answer the marketing questions
prompted by unplanned scenarios, including:
• How should I market in these times?
Should I continue to spend my marketing
budget or cut my losses?
• How can I understand the short-term
and long-term impact of the COVID-19
outbreak on my business?
• Are there things I can do right now to
prevent my business from suffering any
long-term brand impact?
Advertisers have an opportunity to
build marketing mix models that
can account for current economic
conditions, and sudden shifts in
the future.
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts 4

BUILDING M ORE FUTURE-FO C US E D MO D E LS

As advertisers adjust to today’s conditions and plan for the future, it’s important
to evaluate if methodologies like MMM can be used to measure the impact of
the COVID-19 outbreak and inform strategies. Marketing mix modeling can take
time to create, and require sufficient data to be able to measure accurately.
There’s few challenges advertisers typically face when evaluating marketing mix
models for scenario planning that need to be addressed so MMMs can be used in
current conditions.

Marketing mix models typically lean on historical data to make

predictions. In situations where there is no immediate history, such
as with the COVID-19 pandemic, the models cannot be used to make
decisions in their current state. The models will need to evolve to be
able to capture this impact, beyond treating them as an anomaly.

Most models are not granular enough to capture changes in regional

impact, consumer consumption patterns, media campaigns, etc.
In order to account for these changes, MMMs will need to be rebuilt to
include more granularity (geo level models instead of national models,
campaign level models instead of just channel levels, etc).

Marketing mix modeling often doesn’t measure creative impact.

Changes in messaging or design that businesses make in response to
the COVID-19 outbreak will be harder to evaluate in MMMs.

The good news is there are many things advertisers can do now and in the future
to build useful models that account for the impact of unexpected global events or
sudden shifts.

© Facebook company Facebook IQ

Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts 5

02. Building Marketing

Mix Models for Today’s
Conditions
A DJ UST FO R CHANGES I N CONSUM E R
B E H AVIOR AN D DETERMI NE UNI QU E
BU S I N E SS IMPAC T

© Facebook company Facebook IQ

Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
Building Marketing Mix Models for Today’s Conditions
A DJ UST FO R CHA NGES I N CONSUM E R BE H AV I O R AN D D E TE RMI N E UN I Q U E
BU S I N E SS IMPAC T
Significant changes in consumer behavior
has implications on the types and length of
models as well as on variables. To capture
the dynamic changes in underlying variables,
advertisers can use recency variables, run
models over shorter time frames, use custom
ad stocks for all digital variables (such as
Weibull’s adstock) or build time- varying
parameter models.
If MMMs are run during these uncertain
times, modelers and business decision
makers will need to account for this
uncertainty in their scenario planning by
making appropriate assumptions. In some
areas, modelers will also need to account for
any restrictions on consumer purchasing:
For example, the Spanish1 and Italian2
governments provided specific guidance on
how and what to buy to limit panic buying,
and restrictions on the pricing of essential
products were issued in India3. If MMMs were
built during periods of the pandemic that had
greater impact on people’s behavior—e.g.,
during a shelter in place order—advertisers
may want to repeat them as regional
economies stabilize to understand what
dynamics may be permanently different.
Source: 1 “El Gobierno recomienda planificar las compras en Semana Santa y elegir el comercio de proximidad para evitar contagios,”
Europa Press, April 6, 2020.
2 “Coronavirus: Esselunga, Carrefour, Eurospin vietano l’acquisto di penne e quaderni. È polemica. Federdistribuzione non è
d’accordo”, Il Fatto Alimentare, March 17 2020.
3 MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION (Department of Consumer Affairs) Notification
New Delhi, March 21, 2020
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
6
Capture evolving changes with more granular
and high-grade data
In order to better capture the impact of
evolving conditions and consumer behaviors,
we recommend using the most granular-
level data available through the Facebook
MMM pipeline, such as daily, campaign-level,
geo-region, direct marketing area (DMA)
level data. The choice of variable will depend
on the demand elasticity of each product
(essential versus non-essential) as well as
the availability of each product in stores.
Examples of more granular data types
advertisers can use are trends for specific
keywords, volume of COVID-19 cases by
location, global and local market level stock
index, or flight statistics in the travel industry.
In markets where it makes sense, we
recommend modelling by geographical areas,
particularly in countries like Spain, Italy,
UK and elsewhere where the de-escalation
process is following different patterns by
regions. Data for regions that are on a faster
track with loosening restrictions can help
predict what will happen in regions that have
not progressed as far, and can be helpful in
informing media investment decision making.
It’s also important to note that the definition
for “getting back to normal” will vary by
geography.
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
Building Marketing Mix Models for Today’s Conditions
Increase the impact of media variables with
best practices.
While advertisers should always strive
to categorize impressions based on how
they adhere to best practices, it’s even
more important now to have a handle on
creative/media execution performance when
separating the various factors in marketing
mix modeling. Advertisers can segment
campaigns based on their compliance to
media/creative best practices, then use
these buckets to contextualize and possibly
inform splitting impressions and variables
into several categories (e.g., low, medium and
high). As we’ve noted in previous studies,
campaigns that follow media and creative
best practices tend to be more effective in
achieving objectives, so those impressions
carry more influence.
Calibrate and validate MMMs using
experiments
Running experiments is useful for advertisers
in order to check assumptions, choose
between models, test against known
outcomes and tweak models to make them
more accurate. With increased scrutiny of
marketing budgets or less relevant historical
data to reference becoming more common
challenges for marketing teams, calibrating
marketing mix models with experiments is
an effective way for advertisers to ensure
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
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models are as accurate as possible, resulting
in more confident marketing decision-making.
Ecommerce company ThirdLove did so by
building 3 models, with each using slightly
different assumptions. Each model found
a different marketing channel to have the
lowest cost per acquisition. By calibrating
their models with experiments, ThirdLove
determined which model was the most
accurate, and got better insight into how
to best allocate their marketing budget,
according to their business goals. Conversion
lift results can be used as either Bayesian
priors (if Bayesian models are built) or as
coefficient constraints.
Adjust optimization and scenario planning
Optimization and scenario planning are
based on the assumption that historical
trends predict future performance. Currently
behavior patterns resulting from the
COVID-19 pandemic may not indicate long-
term trends, so advertisers should be mindful
of whether their MMM findings from this
period should be used during planning.
Calibrating marketing mix models
with experiments is an effective way
for advertisers to ensure models are
as accurate as possible.
 Models
Adapting Marketing Mix in Response
Models to Major to Major Consumer Shifts in Consumer Behavior
Shifts 8

Building Marketing Mix Models for Today’s Conditions

Key steps advertiser can consider taking are:

• Extrapolate any underlying data forward carefully. When extrapolating the data forward for
the inclusion in scenario plans, consider creating low/mid/high or optimistic/pessimistic
scenarios and varying sensitivity. Run simulations and optimizations frequently to capture
latest CPMs and study uncertainty intervals for interpretation and actions. Study synergies
between baseline and other factors.

• Assess changes in channel reach and penetration. Examine media response curves with
marketing mix model partners to incorporate changing reach and penetration of different
channels, especially digital.

• Reevaluate existing MMMs with providers to determine the best way forward.
Most existing MMMs are built without specific consideration for dealing with crises and may
not be able to control and accurately account for many of these changes.

© Facebook company Facebook IQ

Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts 9

03. The Industry

Perspective
IN DUST RY LEAD ERS NI ELSEN , I RI , N E US TAR, E K I ME TRI C S , AN D
THE AN ALYTI CS UNI T AT D E LO I T TE S H ARE TH E I R APPROAC H TO
MO DE LING DURI NG UNEXPEC TE D E V E N TS .

Facebook partners are exploring ways to adapt their marketing mix

models in ways that take rapidly changing consumer behaviors into
account. We asked our partners to share their perspective on 4 key
questions. Keep in mind that these recommendations and ideas
are intended to be generic, and that specific models may require
different approaches.

You can navigate directly to a specific question by clicking below.

1. What are some of the modeling tactics you are considering to

MMMs to address the pandemic? What are some key metrics and
variables that you are considering adding?

2. Which optimizations are you recommending during this time?

3. How should marketers, advertisers and clients respond to the

COVID-19 outbreak in the short term and the long term?

4. What are your overall recommendations to clients for

understanding ROI changes during this time?

© Facebook company Facebook IQ

Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
The Industry Perspective
1 . W HAT AR E S OME OF THE MOD EL I N G TAC TI C S YO U ARE C O N S I D E RI N G
A D D IN G TO MMMS TO AD D RESS TH E PAN D E MI C ? W H AT ARE S O ME K E Y
M E T R ICS AN D VARI A BLES THAT YO U ARE C O N S I D E RI N G AD D I N G ?
John Puhl, VP Global Marketing Analytics
Programs, Nielsen
“Solutions should focus on how COVID-19
has affected specific markets— country-
state, country-province, or country-region
combinations—by the brand’s category and
vertical. When collecting data relevant to the
pandemic, it will be important to understand
when the virus started to impact each market,
or when governments began to implement
mitigation efforts. Measuring the cross-time
effects of COVID-19 on a brand in a market
will require a flexible model specification.
Another flexible option is to obtain market-
specific trend results for a set of exogenous
keywords, such as “coronavirus” and
“COVID-19”, or other exogenous trend results
such as Google Mobility Index, and then
testing different smoothing of this data in the
marketing mix model”
Susan Lahey, Principal, Marketing
Effectiveness/Strategic Analytics, IRI
“There are a number of factors that will need
to be accounted for: Pantry loading/stock
ups and Out of Stock impacts will need to be
tested across all categories, while enhancing
seasonality metrics to better separate normal
seasonal impacts from COVID-19-related
demand spikes. It will be important to look
at category level data to understand buying
trends at a regional level. As consumer
behavior patterns normalize, we will look at
splitting media impacts into a pre/during/
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
10
post pandemic continuum to determine
whether the effectiveness of media channels
has evolved.”
Marc Vermut, VP Marketing Solutions,
Neustar
“We are seeing shifts in behavior in the data
we have within our user-level datasets,
but those changes are different across
industries and brands. Initially, because
there is not yet enough market-level data,
we will look for directional changes in
coefficients. Depending on the marketer
it may not be worth the effort to refresh
the models right now (given the limited
data and changing environment), so we are
focusing on developing scenarios for planning
and optimization. As the models can’t yet
incorporate measurement for COVID-19
impacts and simulate for a return to a new
normal, we are providing clients with the
ability to make ad hoc adjustments to the
model predictions on our platform to reflect
changes in the intercept from demand and
supply shocks. Once we have enough data, we
will test a number of potential variables in the
models for all leading and lagging indicators
like confirmed cases, unemployment rates,
delinquency rates, GQV trends, social
sentiment, and so on. We will also look at time
dependent variables that estimate both in
period and out of the period to identify what
needs to be estimated further.”
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
Adam Rodgers, Managing Director/GM,
North America, Ekimetrics
“We are supplementing our models
with market/industry-level forecasting,
distribution channel balance changes,
measurement and utilization of shifts in
consumer behavior, media consumption
and cost, and local deep-dive modeling to
isolate more granular trends and response
strategies, and creating risk and opportunity
intervals. After the pandemic, we will be
looking at many of the same topics as above,
but with more data so that our hypotheses
are backed.”
Davide Fabrizio, Insight Analytics Director,
Deloitte Analytics Unit
“Right now, while the pandemic is ongoing,
we are:
• Separating offline and online sales
channels in some modeling that we were
still doing at an aggregate level.
• Monitoring and modeling brand metrics
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
11
(awareness, brand image, reputation,
consideration, recommendation, purchase
intention), especially in industries which
stopped their activities during this crisis.
We’re also introducing variables related to
COVID-19 in the models.
• Optimizing media and marketing
investment taking into account
restrictions associated with COVID-19
(available budget, store closings and
digital channel enhancement, not
exceeding available stock).
• Measuring the long-term impact of the
campaigns carried out in the [time] period,
especially focusing on the repercussions
of the strategy on earned media and their
interaction with owned and paid ones.
• Introducing variables that isolate the
effect of COVID-19 following two
strategies: (1) including variables that
measure the effect of the virus, or (2)
dividing historical data in three periods:
before, during and after the COVID-19
pandemic.”
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
The Industry Perspective
2 . W H ICH OP T I M I ZATI ONS A RE YOU REC O MME N D I N G D URI N G TH I S TI ME ?
John Puhl, VP Global Marketing Analytics
Programs, Nielsen
“Sensitivity analyses will be a good way to
understand the impact of COVID-19 and also
to make decisions for channels right now.
We are recommending that clients change
the factors and run scenarios to find the
minimums and maximums from different
optimizations and simulations. Nielsen
will use data from our norms database to
help identify factors like percentiles of
marketing effectiveness or slow and fast
recovery to help clients run these scenarios.
It is important to remember that marketing
effectiveness is changing right now—even
if people are watching more TV or spending
time on digital, it doesn’t necessarily mean
higher effectiveness.”
Susan Lahey, Principal, Marketing
Effectiveness/Strategic Analytics, IRI
“Running typical optimization scenarios
will not account for the more intangible
circumstance. Specific to individual
campaigns, this is the best time to optimize
using actual recent purchase data (100%
deterministic) because optimizing for pre-
pandemic online and offline behaviors is less
valid. They can deliver more impressions to
campaign tactics that are resulting in more
dollar sales and/or suppress impressions
to those buyers who just bought, thereby
minimizing waste. We do caution that
advertisers do not make massive changes
from one medium to another.
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
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For example, do not shift budgets long-term
from digital to TV because TV consumption
may be at a high right now for markets
that are staying indoors. Also, don’t apply
your current optimal spend for when things
stabilize; the findings may no longer apply.”
Marc Vermut, VP Marketing Solutions,
Neustar
“We are recommending advertisers run
different scenarios by adjusting the forward-
looking assumptions in our tool. Our planner
allows marketers to create different scenarios
using different media and control variables
assumptions. We have enabled clients to
make changes to adjust the intercept on a
weekly basis to reflect the changing impact of
COVID-19 over time, constraining the media
that is not available, adjusting the CPMs of
the ones that are available, and so on. We
are working with our clients to develop the
intercept adjustment assumptions based on
the difference between model estimation
versus actual sales.”
It’s important to remember that
marketing effectiveness is changing
right now - even if people are
watching more TV or spending time
on digital, it doesn’t necessarily mean
higher effectiveness.
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
Adam Rodgers, Managing Director/GM,
North America, Ekimetrics
“The key thing to remember about
optimizations in this period is that there is no
[one]solution. Brands should optimize under a
different set of assumptions and constraints,
and also optimize to a wider set of outcomes.
This includes: optimizing for different funnel
elements like awareness, engagement,
consideration, conversion - and comparing
critical differences and similarities; optimizing
to where your market is (customer segment
x category x channel); supplementing
standard MMM with additional analyses
and assumptions to understand actions
under different baseline effects; and being
creative in optimizing. Don’t just change
levels of investment; [explore adjusting]
campaigns, messaging-focus, regions, and
timing. Ultimately use qualitative thinking
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
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to hypothesize a few different potential
strategies and then optimize around those to
understand quantitative impact. Don’t just
change levels of investment: war-game with
campaigns, messaging-focus, regions, and
timing. Ultimately use qualitative thinking
to hypothesize a few different potential
strategies and then optimize around those to
understand quantitative impact.”
Davide Fabrizio, Insight Analytics Director,
Deloitte Analytics Unit
“Initially, and without data on the effects of
the pandemic, use effectiveness curves by
media to simulate different available budgets
and coverage/reach levels. As we have
available real data, assess the impact on the
channels (offline-online) to be able to weight
the effectiveness curves.”
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
The Industry Perspective
3. HOW SHO UL D MARKETERS, ADVE RTI S E RS AN D C L I E N TS RE S PO N D TO T H E
C OV I D-1 9 O UTBREA K I N THE SHORT TE RM AN D TH E LO N G TE RM?
John Puhl, VP Global Marketing Analytics
Programs, Nielsen
“There is no doubt that the COVID-19
outbreak has changed the behavior of
marketers, consumers, and the world.
For marketers, the key focus for planning
and adjusting in the short and long term
is to determine what behaviors exhibited
now are likely prevalent due to the current
environment, but won’t be prevailing after
the pandemic, and which behaviors are likely
to become the ‘new normal’. For those
that are prevalent and short-term focused,
responding today with various scenario
planning capabilities that allow businesses to
build best case and worst case contingency
plans will be key to enable marketers
to respond quickly. For those prevailing
behaviors, building longer term strategies
to win in these spaces and utilizing this time
period as a catalyst for testing and adapting
new ways to engage with consumers in the
‘new normal’ will accelerate capabilities and
competitive advantages post pandemic.
Whether short term or long term, it’s
important to adopt a measurement
protocol that allows you to quantify the
implications (with short term and long term
ROI assessments) of various choices for
speed and agility, adapt your evaluation
process to ensure each KPI is taken in the
right context and its likelihood to be either
prevalent or prevailing, and accelerate
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
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prevailing capabilities so as we emerge from
this pandemic, you’ve built a competitive
advantage to future growth.”
Susan Lahey, Principal, Marketing
Effectiveness/Strategic Analytics, IRI
“From a measurement perspective, it will be
important for clients to recognize that the
response of consumers during the pandemic
is not going to be indicative of past or future
responsiveness of media. However, it is
important for clients to continue to advertise
to remain relevant during these times and
generate brand equity. Moreover, advertisers
should ensure they are taking into account
recent buying trends to ensure they are
reaching new buyers. But they must also not
forget at-risk buyers who have tried other
brands (perhaps because the advertiser’s
brand was out of stock) as well as lapsed
buyers. One guaranteed way to reach each
type of buyer with the right messaging
is to use actual in-store and e-commerce
sales data (100% deterministic). Targeting
via models built from non-purchase online
behavior or even historical offline purchase
behavior is less valid during these times.
Instead, finding buyers based on their current
actual purchase behaviors makes some
sense. Moreover, optimizing campaign tactics
that are working based on actual recent
buying behavior (versus past online or offline
behavior) is more relevant than ever now.”
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts 15

Marc Vermut, VP Marketing Solutions, Adam Rodgers, Managing Director/GM,

Neustar North America, Ekimetrics
“Marketers should understand that in the “We have a number of recommendations we
short term, overall marketing elasticity is are pushing to our clients via a marketing
academically proven to remain stable even playbook that is based on MMM, benchmarks,
during extreme demand shift situations. market forecasting, and customer analytics.
While responsiveness is stable, conversions A few high-level best practices from our end:
and channel-level effectiveness is largely
The risk of cutting all media is huge: there
impacted by shifts in base demand, audience
is a loss of efficiency of other tactics, it can
changes, channel consumption habits and
negatively impact long-term brand equity,
CPMs relative to stable media inventory
and will lead to lower ROI during an eventual
levels. For example, podcast consumption
recovery.
was down as the crisis unfolded likely due
to the decrease in commuters, but radio Game planning via simulation is critically
consumption was up. If radio inventory important: brands need to run multiple
levels are stable, but CPMs increase, radio scenario options to be prepared and agile to
may not be a more profitable investment take action.
despite higher levels of consumption. Brands
that have historically turned off marketing There is increased value in going local:
during economic downturns struggle more to The more each brand can use analytics
regain eroded base demand than brands that to understand what works on a local level
retain some level of spend. This is even more (region, country, DMA, etc.), the better they
applicable in the current situation as retail can be prepared to maximize returns during a
businesses can operationally leverage no- recovery.
contact, curbside pickup to drive online sales.
Adapt to customer behaviors and adjust
Depending on the media buying marketplace,
marketing to match. Although there is change
offline channels in combination with online
in customer and segment populations, you
can be effective in driving online sales.
can still use MMMs and CRMs together to
Long-term, turning up marketing spend is understand the response of marketing by
contingent on DMA-level restrictions and ad different profiles.”
retention by channel. Brands can capitalize on
marketing’s ability to drive sales by increasing
levels of spend before restrictions are lifted.
Advertisers should also consider the lasting
implications of consumer behavior. Retail
online sales, for example, may remain higher
than pre-COVID-19 conditions if there is a
more permanent shift in how consumers are
purchasing.”

© Facebook company Facebook IQ

Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
Davide Fabrizio, Insight Analytics Director,
Deloitte Analytics Unit
“Think of 20-30% in the short term and
70-80% in the long term. Now more than
ever it’s important to have measured the
long-term impact of advertising in past
historical data and to know the baseline
of the business and the possible erosion
that can occur by stopping advertising. It
is a great time to generate awareness and
consideration with marketing that transmits
the brand values along with concrete actions.
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
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Lower advertising competition in the media
market favors brands with innovative and/or
emotional campaigns, combining advertising
with aid actions (such as buying masks or
helping health and the safety of workers or
people in need). It’s an opportunity to think of
campaign ads combining brand and product,
and taking advantage of their interaction.
Multiplicative and viralization effects are
more likely to be deployed in this period,
boosting ROI in the short and long term.”
20-30%
SHORT TERM IMPAC T
70-80%
LONG TERM IMPAC T
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
The Industry Perspective
4. W HAT AR E YOU R OVERA LL RECOMME N DATI O N S TO C L I E N TS FO R
U ND E R STAN DI NG ROI CHANGES DURI N G TH I S TI ME ?
John Puhl, VP Global Marketing Analytics
Programs, Nielsen
“It will depend on the advertisers’ context:
if advertisers have specifically executed
content in response to the pandemic, the
results will be relevant. If clients are looking
for long term, the results will need to be
looked at more carefully. Increased ROI
because of low CPMs may not provide an
accurate picture. For CPG, manufacturing is
the most important factor—getting products
to the shelf. Currently, our estimates are
that CPG companies are getting a 3-5%
increase in total company sales (with varying
results by category and manufacturer)
during the COVID-19 pandemic. What will
be interesting to see is if companies will be
able to maintain their shares after things
get to normal. For example, will shelf-stable
foods continue to see an increase in sales
when restaurants reopen? For this reason, we
believe that continuing to advertise during
this time to build a resilient brand and the
need to advertise after this time will continue
to be important to maintain this increased
consumption.”
Susan Lahey, Principal, Marketing
Effectiveness/Strategic Analytics, IRI
“Under normal conditions reducing
advertising spend would often increase ROIs
by moving further back on response curves
(e.g., reducing saturation). However, there
are typically breakthrough levels that must
be considered based on an advertisers’ share
of voice. Part of the reason for having a
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
17
distinct peak variable (such as COVID-19) is
to account for the uniqueness of marketing
response when marketing spend has gone
down in correlation with broader category
spend and other exogenous factors.
Ultimately the key is to put ROIs in context of
the current situation and help our clients plan
for marketing spend. Evaluate each campaign
to understand media activation periods.
Marc Vermut, VP Marketing Solutions,
Neustar
“Changes in overall and channel-level ROI
are primarily due to base demand erosion,
so it’s critical to balance the increase in ROI
from lower spend if you’re cutting against
the reduced effectiveness of marketing
in the face of reduced demand. And don’t
reduce investments to maintain an ROI if that
will lead to reduced brand equity and sales
performance as we return to a new normal.”
Adam Rodgers, Managing Director/GM,
North America, Ekimetrics
“ROI potential will directly be linked to the
size of the market, don’t expect high levels
in the short term. But changes in media
consumption, chaos, and uncertainty may
potentially provide opportunities and a better
price for media. It’s easy to have a strong
ROI with limited spend, but you may be
leaving money on the table. As in all times,
the key is to maximize your overall ROI: so as
budgets are going down, you need to balance
sufficiency levels and the more effective
channels for your overall mix.
Adapting Marketing Mix Models to Major Shifts
Finally, flighting becomes even more
important, so understanding lag and
persistent effects also is key to developing
the best plan for multiple recovery scenarios.”
Davide Fabrizio, Insight Analytics Director,
Deloitte Analytics Unit
“Our recommendations for understanding
ROI are to:
• Simulate the impact that this reduction
will have in the long term on the metrics
that have been modeled.
• Monitor brand metrics to be able to
compare with competitors. Push more
on optimization simulations to find a way
© Facebook company Facebook IQ
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to maintain media contributions to sales
with a decreasing investment (via ROI
maximization).
• Study what’s happening in terms of
ROI and media effectiveness in this
period, as it can give useful insights and
recommendations also for the future. But
take into account that we don’t know if
we’re going back to normality or towards a
‘new normality’.
• Combine additional information on
ROI (e.g., conversion lift experiments)
with MMM to ensure a more precise
measurement.”