Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 24

Page 1 of 24 2013-CIC-060

)520&2$/721$785$/*$6,76,03$&721.,/1
352'8&7,21&/,1.(548$/,7<$1'(0,66,216

6\HG6XKDLO$NKWDUDQG(ULF(UYLQ03&+ROFLP 86 ,QF
DQG
6KDQ5D]DDQG7DKLU$EEDV&LQDU/WG

$%675$&7
,QWKH1RUWK$PHULFDQHQHUJ\PDUNHWQDWXUDOJDVSULFHVKDYHEHHQJUDGXDOO\GHFUHDVLQJGXULQJWKH
SDVWVHYHUDO\HDUVSULPDULO\GXHWRDGYDQFHVLQVKDOHJDVH[WUDFWLRQWHFKQLTXHV7KHDYDLODELOLW\RI
FKHDSHUQDWXUDOJDV 1* ZKLOHVHHQDVDQDWWUDFWLYHVKRUWWHUPIXHOVZLWFKLQJRSWLRQLVYLHZHGZLWK
FDXWLRQ E\ PRVW FHPHQW SODQWV GXH WR ORQJWHUP SURFXUHPHQW FRQFHUQV $OVR GXH WR WUDGLWLRQDOO\
KLJKHU 1* SULFHV FHPHQW SODQWV KDYH LQYHVWHG KHDYLO\ LQWR VROLG IXHOV LQFOXGLQJ VWRUDJH JULQGLQJ
KDQGOLQJ DQG GRVLQJ V\VWHPV  RIWHQ DFKLHYLQJ KLJK WKHUPDO VXEVWLWXWLRQ UDWHV RI VROLG $)5V
$OWHUQDWLYH)XHOV 5DZ0DWHULDOV 

$VDUHVXOWDZHDOWKRINQRZOHGJHKDVEHHQDFTXLUHGRQILULQJVROLGIXHOVLQFOXGLQJVRPHRIWKHPRUH
GLIILFXOW RQHV HJ KLJKHU VXOIXU SHWFRNH DQG ELJJHU VL]H $)5V ZKHUH RSHUDWLRQDO LVVXHV VXFK DV
EXLOGXSV HPLVVLRQV DQG SURGXFWLRQ ORVVHV KDYH EHHQ DQG DUH EHLQJ PLQLPL]HG  6ZLWFKLQJ WR JDV
ILULQJ KRZHYHU UHTXLUHV UHDGDSWDWLRQ RI FRPEXVWLRQ DQG SURFHVV JXLGHOLQHV IRU D IXHO ZKLFK
DOWKRXJK LQ SULQFLSDO LV HDVLHU WR EXUQ EXW KDV UHODWLYHO\ ORZHU UDGLDWLYH KHDW WUDQVIHU DQG VKDUSHU
EXUQLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WKDQ FRDO  $V VXFK WKH SODQWV ZKLFK KDYH VZLWFKHG WR 1* ILULQJ KDYH
REVHUYHG LQFRQVLVWHQW WUHQGV LQ SURGXFWLRQ HQHUJ\ DQG HPLVVLRQV SHUIRUPDQFH PDLQO\ GXH WR WKH
ODFNRIVXIILFLHQWLQIRUPDWLRQRQFRPEXVWLRQSURFHVVLQWHUDFWLRQVRIWKHWZRIXHOW\SHVUHTXLUHGIRUFRVW
HIIHFWLYHRSWLPL]DWLRQ$1*IODPHLJQLWHVHDUOLHUUHOHDVHVLQWHQVHKHDWEXWODFNVGLVVLSDWLRQRIKHDW
DVFRPSDUHGZLWKDVROLGIXHOIODPHWKHUHE\UHTXLULQJSODQWVSHFLILFDGMXVWPHQWV7KLVSDSHUSUHVHQWV
DFWXDOUHVXOWVRI1*ILULQJWULDOVDWVHOHFWHGFHPHQWSODQWVDORQJZLWK0,&)'SUHGLFWLRQVVXEVHTXHQW
WRYDOLGDWLRQIURPWKHSODQWGDWDRQIRXUNLOQDQGIRXUFDOFLQHUV5HFRPPHQGDWLRQVDUHDOVRPDGHWR
LPSURYHDQGRSWLPL]H1*ILULQJE\WDNLQJLQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKHFRPEXVWLRQDQGPLQHUDOLQWHUDFWLRQV

,1752'8&7,21
1DWXUDOJDVSULFHVLQWKH1RUWK$PHULFDQHQHUJ\PDUNHWKDYHEHHQJUDGXDOO\GHFOLQLQJSULPDULO\GXH
WR DGYDQFHV LQ VKDOH JDV H[WUDFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV 7KH FDORULILF YDOXHV DQG FRPSRVLWLRQV RI VKDOH JDV
DUH RQO\ VOLJKWO\ DW YDULDQFH ZLWK QDWXUDO JDV 1*  VR VKDOH JDV LV DSSURSULDWH IRU PDQ\ LQGXVWULDO
DSSOLFDWLRQVZKHUHFRQYHQWLRQDOIXHOVDUHXWLOL]HG
$YHU\UHFHQWFRPSDULVRQRIFRDODQGQDWXUDOJDVSULFHVKDVVKRZQWKDWWKHSURGXFWLRQSULFHRIJDV
ILUHGHQHUJ\FXUUHQWO\VWDQGVDWDURXQG86RU¼NLORZDWWKRXUQHDUO\KDOIWKHSULFHSDLG
E\ PDQ\ FRDOILUHG SODQWV ZKLFK DOVR W\SLFDOO\ UHTXLUH PRUH ODERU DQG KRXVHNHHSLQJ WKDQ JDVILUHG
SODQWV^`7KLVPDNHVDWOHDVWLQWKHVKRUWWHUP1*DPRUHDWWUDFWLYHIXHOIRUWKHFHPHQWLQGXVWU\DV
FRPSDUHG WR FRDOSHWFRNH RU HYHQ VRPH DOWHUQDWLYH IXHOV  7KH SULFHV RI VROLG IXHOV HVSHFLDOO\
DOWHUQDWLYHIXHOVPD\EHFRPHDWWUDFWLYHDJDLQDVWKH1RUWK$PHULFDQHQHUJ\PDUNHWJRHVWKURXJKD
µFRUUHFWLQJSKDVH¶

0DQ\ FHPHQW SODQWV KDYH QR H[SHULHQFH ZLWK WKH XVH RI QDWXUDO JDV ODUJHO\ EHFDXVH LW LV QRW
DYDLODEOHRQVLWHGXHWRLWVWUDGLWLRQDOO\KLJKHUSULFH,QDGGLWLRQWKHUHDUHPLQRUIODPHPRQLWRULQJDQG
VDIHW\ LVVXHV ZLWK QDWXUDO JDV VXFK DV IODPH IODVK EDFN H[WLQFWLRQ IODPH GHWHFWLRQ DQG DXWR JDV
VXSSO\ YDOYH VKXWRII 7KHVH KXUGOHV FDQ HDVLO\ EH UHVROYHG WKURXJK DSSURSULDWH WUDLQLQJ DQG VDIHW\
PHDVXUHV)RUH[DPSOHGXULQJNLOQZDUPXSFDUHPXVWEHWDNHQZKHQWKHNLOQZDOOWHPSHUDWXUHVDUH
 R
EHORZ  & VLQFH PRVW IODPH GHWHFWLRQ GHYLFHV RSHUDWH RQ WKH EDVLV RI LQIUDUHG UDGLDWLRQ
GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHIODPHDQGDEDFNJURXQG W\SLFDOO\WKHNLOQZDOO 6RWKHLUGHWHFWLRQUDQJH LV
VHYHUHO\ DIIHFWHG ZKHQ WKH NLOQ ZDOO UDGLDWLRQ DQG WKH ZHDNHU UDGLDWLRQ RI QDWXUDO JDV IODPHV VHH
EHORZ EHFRPH VLPLODU$QDXWRVKXW YDOYH PD\IDOVHO\GHWHFWDIODPH ZKLFKKDVDFWXDOO\EHHQORVW
OHDGLQJ WR DQ H[SORVLRQ LI WKH IXHO VXSSO\ LV QRW VKXWGRZQ RU DOWHUQDWLYHO\ LW PD\ PDOIXQFWLRQ E\
UDQGRPO\FXWWLQJRIIWKHIXHOVXSSO\FDXVLQJXQQHFHVVDU\GHOD\VLQNLOQZDUPXS

6LPLODU VDIHW\ PHDVXUHV DOVR DSSO\ WR WKH FDOFLQHU EXW GXH WR WKH ORZHU WHPSHUDWXUHV WKHUHLQ DQG
OHVVHU IODPH OXPLQRVLW\ XQGHU WKH YLWLDWHG FRPEXVWLRQ FRQGLWLRQV LH LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI KLJKHU

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 2 of 24

TXDQWLWLHVRI&2DQGHQGRWKHUPLFUHDFWLRQV WKHGHWHFWLRQPDUJLQVIRULQIUDUHGIODPHPRQLWRUVDUH
HYHQWLJKWHU$W FDOFLQHUWHPSHUDWXUHVEHORZ  R&DQDXWRVKXW V\VWHPQHHGV WR WXUQRII WKHNLOQ
JDVVXSSO\PXFKVRRQHUDVFRPSDUHGWRVROLGIXHOVZKLFKDUHLQKHUHQWO\PRUHVWDEOH$LUSXUJLQJLQ
WKHFDVHRIIODPHIDLOXUHDQGWKHXVHRIH[SORVLRQYHQWVDOVRKDYHPRUHVWULQJHQWUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUJDV
ILULQJ

$SDUWIURPVDIHW\DQGKDQGOLQJLVVXHVWKHPDMRUGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQJDVDQGFRDORUSHWFRNHIODPHV
DQG LQGHHG PRVW VROLGIXHO IODPHV  DUH WKHLU GLIIHULQJ FRPEXVWLRQ DQG KHDW WUDQVIHU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV
 R
7KH DGLDEDWLF IODPH WHPSHUDWXUH  D IXQGDPHQWDO SURSHUW\ RI IODPHV RI QDWXUDO JDV LV DERXW  &
ORZHU WKDQ WKDW RI FRDO  ,Q SUDFWLFH WKLV GLIIHUHQFH LV QHJDWHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW LW LV SRVVLEOH WR ILUH
QDWXUDO JDV DW ORZHU OHYHOV RI H[FHVV DLU WKDQ LV QRUPDO ZLWK VROLG IXHOV GXH WR WKH UHODWLYH HDVH RI
DFKLHYLQJ JRRG PL[LQJ RI D JDV IXHO ZLWK WKH DLU +RZHYHU WKLV FRPSDULVRQ LV QRW YHU\ LQIRUPDWLYH
VLQFHFRDO FRPEXVWLRQRFFXUVLQERWKWKHJDVDQGVROLGSKDVHV YRODWLOHVDQGFKDU ,QFRQWUDVWDQG
JLYHQWKDWWKHSUHGRPLQDQWPRGHRIKHDWWUDQVIHULQNLOQVLVE\WKHUPDOUDGLDWLRQDJDVIODPHUDGLDWHV
OHVV OHVV µOXPLQRXV¶  WKDQ SXOYHUL]HG VROLG IXHO IODPHV EHFDXVH VROLG IXHO SDUWLFOHV DUH HVSHFLDOO\

HIIHFWLYH UDGLDWRUV RI HQHUJ\ IURP WKH IODPH WR WKH VXUURXQGLQJV   ,Q SUDFWLFH WKH HPLVVLYLW\ RI JDV
IODPHVUDUHO\ULVHVDERYHZKHUHDVDOXPLQRXVVROLGIXHOIODPHDSSURDFKHVWKHµEODFNERG\¶OLPLWRI
XQLW\IRUDFKDUDFWHULVWLFIODPHGLPHQVLRQDVVPDOODVRQHPHWHU

7KH UDGLDWLRQ IURP D JDV IODPH LV SULPDULO\ WKH UHVXOW RI WKH ZDWHU YDSRU DQG FDUERQ GLR[LGH LQ LWV
SURGXFWVRIFRPEXVWLRQ7KHVHFRQVWLWXHQWVSUHVHQWLQWKHSURGXFWVRIDOOIODPHVDUHµQRQOXPLQRXV¶
HPLWWLQJ OLWWOH LQ WKH YLVLEOH SRUWLRQ RI WKH LQIUDUHG VSHFWUXP DQG DV VXFK WKH\ DUH ZHDN HPLWWHUV RI
WKHUPDO UDGLDWLRQ  7KH UDGLDWLYH KHDW WUDQVIHU LV DXJPHQWHG LQ VROLG DQG RLO IODPHV GXH WR WKH
SUHVHQFH RI KLJKO\ UDGLDWLYH FKDU DQG VRRW SDUWLFOHV  7KH FOLQNHU DQG PHDO GXVW SDUWLFOHV KHOS WR
SURPRWHKHDWWUDQVIHUIURPDJDVIODPHWRWKHFKDUJHPHDOLQWKHNLOQDQGKHDWWUDQVIHUEHWZHHQPHDO
SDUWLFOHVLVHQKDQFHGE\WKHUPDOUDGLDWLRQLQWKHFDOFLQHUDQGSUHKHDWHUV

7RVRPHH[WHQWWKHORZHUOXPLQRVLW\RUUDGLDWLRQSRWHQWLDORIWKHJDVIODPHFDQEHRIIVHWE\VWDJLQJ
WKDWLVWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKHFRPEXVWLRQDLUWKHUHE\FUHDWLQJDQLQLWLDOO\IXHOULFK]RQHIROORZE\DIXHO
OHDQ RQH 7KLV ZLOO KDYH WKH SRWHQWLDO WR JHQHUDWH VRRW SDUWLFOHV ZKLFK GR UDGLDWH VWURQJO\  ,Q WKLV
PDQQHU WKH LQLWLDO UHJLRQ RI WKH IODPH LV WDLORUHG WR EH IXHOULFK ZLWK WKH GRZQVWUHDP UHJLRQ
PDQLSXODWHGWREHIXHOOHDQVXFKWKDWWKHGHVLUHGRYHUDOOVWRLFKLRPHWU\LVDFKLHYHG

*DVHRXVIXHOVEXUQLPPHGLDWHO\RQFRQWDFWZLWKWKHDLUVWUHDP&RPEXVWLRQHQJLQHHUVGHVFULEHWKLV
DVµPL[HGLVEXUQW¶6RWKHVKDSHDQGVL]HRIDJDVIODPHFDQEHDFFXUDWHO\WDLORUHGE\RSWLPL]LQJWKH
DHURG\QDPLFV7KHSDUWLFOHVRIDVROLGIXHOIODPHUHTXLUHDFHUWDLQUHVLGHQFHWLPHWREXUQRXWVRWKDW
HYHQZLWKJRRGPL[LQJWKHVROLGIXHOIODPHLVPRUHH[WHQVLYHWKDQWKHJDVIODPH

,WLVFOHDUWKDWWKHFRQYHUVLRQIURPDVROLGIXHOWRJDVILULQJLVQRWWULYLDO,QWKLVSDSHUDFRPSDUDWLYH
DQDO\VLV RI QDWXUDO JDV DQG FRDO FRPEXVWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG WKHLU LPSDFW RQ WKH
FDOFLQDWLRQFOLQNHULQJ UHDFWLRQV LV SUHVHQWHG  'XH WR WKH VLPLODULW\ RI QDWXUDO JDV DQG VKDOH JDV WKH
FRQFOXVLRQVGUDZQKHUHLQPD\EHH[WHQGHGWRWKHODWWHU)URPWKHKHDWWUDQVIHUSRLQWRIYLHZIRUWKH
KHDYLHU K\GURFDUERQ EDVHG IXHOV LH VROLG  OLTXLG  PRUH KHDW LV WUDQVIHUUHG YLD UDGLDWLRQ ZKHUHDV
UDGLDWLYH KHDW WUDQVIHU IURP QDWXUDO JDV LV OHVV LQWHQVH HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI VRRW IRUPDWLRQ
GXHWRKHDYLHUK\GURFDUERQFUDFNLQJ7KLVFDQWRDQH[WHQWEHFRPSHQVDWHGIRUE\PRUHUDSLGPL[LQJ
LQRUGHUWRORFDOO\LQFUHDVHWHPSHUDWXUH DQGRULPSDUWLQJOXPLQRVLW\WRWKHQDWXUDOJDVIODPHWKURXJK
VWDJHGPL[LQJRIWKHJDVZLWKWKHDLU

(QKDQFHPHQW RI WKH UHVLGHQFH WLPH LV DOVR D VROXWLRQ URXWH EXW WKLV LV OLNHO\ WR LQYROYH DSSUHFLDEOH
FDSLWDO H[SHQGLWXUH 2WKHUZLVH WKH QDWXUDO JDV IODPH KDV WR EH PRGLILHG LQ VXFK D ZD\ WKDW LWV
FRQYHFWLYH KHDW WUDQVIHU FRQWULEXWLRQ LV LQFUHDVHG WR FRPSHQVDWH IRU LWV OHVV HIIHFWLYH UDGLDWLYH
 

7KHDGLDEDWLFIODPHWHPSHUDWXUHLVDFKLHYHGZKHQWKHUHLVQRKHDWORVVWRWKHVXUURXQGLQJVDQGIRU
WKHFKHPLFDOO\FRUUHFWDLUIXHOUDWLR

7KHSDUWLFOHVLQDVROLGIXHOIODPHUDGLDWHVWURQJO\LQWKHYLVLEOHSRUWLRQRIWKHLQIUDUHGVSHFWUXPDV
HYLGHQFHGE\WKH\HOORZFRORURIWKHVHIODPHV6XFKIODPHVDUHWHUPHGµOXPLQRXV¶ &DQGOHIODPHVDUH
OXPLQRXVEHFDXVHRIWKHVRRWSDUWLFOHVSUHVHQWLQWKHIODPH 

)XHOSDUWLFOHVLQFOXGLQJVRRWSDUWLFOHV IURPJDVFUDFNLQJXQGHUIXHOULFKFRQGLWLRQV LQFUHDVHWKH
OXPLQRVLW\DQGVRWKHUDGLDWLYHSRZHURIDIODPH

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 3 of 24 2013-CIC-060

FRPSRQHQW  7KLV FDQ EH DFKLHYHG WKURXJK   KLJKHU IODPH WHPSHUDWXUHV OHVV H[FHVV DLU DQGRU
LQFUHDVHG DLU SUHKHDW  DQG   LQFUHDVHG JDV YHORFLW\ LQ WKH NLOQ WKH VFRSH RI ZKLFK LV OLPLWHG ,Q
SUDFWLFH D JDV IODPH ZLOO EH KRWWHU WKDQ WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ FRDO IODPH LQ VSLWH RI LWV VOLJKWO\ ORZHU
DGLDEDWLFIODPHWHPSHUDWXUHEHFDXVHRILWVORZHUH[FHVVDLUUHTXLUHPHQWDQGORZHUKHDWORVVWKURXJK
WKHUPDO UDGLDWLRQ WR WKH VXUURXQGLQJV  +RZHYHU WKH VKDSH RI WKH JDV IODPH PD\ EH XVHIXOO\
RSWLPL]HGE\PDQDJLQJWKHPL[LQJ%XWZLWKRXWWKHUPRIOXLGG\QDPLFV FRPSUHKHQVLRQ LWLVGLIILFXOWWR
H[SORLWDQGLPSOHPHQWWKLVIRUWKHFRPSOH[DQGKDUVKFRPEXVWLRQFRQGLWLRQVLQVLGHDNLOQRUFDOFLQHU

%\ ZD\ RI IXUWKHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ WKH KLJKHU JDV IODPH DQG IOXH JDV WHPSHUDWXUHV FRQVHTXHQW RI WKH
ODFN RI KHDW WUDQVIHU DQG UHGXFHG H[FHVV DLU FDQ LQFUHDVH WKH 12; IRUPDWLRQ WKURXJK WKH WKHUPDO
GHFRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH QLWURJHQ PROHFXOH WKHUPDO 12;   $OVR LI WKH VL]H RI D QDWXUDO JDV IODPH LV
LQFUHDVHG E\ DHURG\QDPLF PDQLSXODWLRQ WR FUHDWH D ODUJHU IODPH ]RQH IRU H[DPSOH LQ DQ HIIRUW WR
FRPSHQVDWHIRUKLJKHUWHPSHUDWXUHVLWXVXDOO\LQFUHDVHV12;IRUPDWLRQVLPSO\EHFDXVHWKHH[WHQWRI
WKHKLJKWHPSHUDWXUHIODPHUHJLRQLVJUHDWHU

7KH LPSDFWRI VXEVWLWXWLQJ QDWXUDO JDVLQD SUHFDOFLQHULV PRUHSURQRXQFHGWKDQLQ WKHNLOQEHFDXVH
WKHFDOFLQHUWHPSHUDWXUHVDUHUHODWLYHO\ORZGXHWRWKHHQGRWKHUPLFFDOFLQDWLRQUHDFWLRQVPHDQLQJWKDW
WKHDOUHDG\UHGXFHGQRQOXPLQRXVUDGLDWLRQWUDQVIHULVHYHQORZHU$VDUHVXOWFDOFLQHUJDVHVH[LWDW
KLJKHU WHPSHUDWXUHV DV FRPSDUHG ZLWK D FRDO IODPH RI HTXLYDOHQW WKHUPDO LQSXW D WUHQG ZKLFK
FRQWLQXHVXQWLOWKHWRSF\FORQHWKHUHE\LQFUHDVLQJWKHSODQWKHDWFRQVXPSWLRQ NFDONJ ,QDGGLWLRQ
WKHUH LV DOVR D SRWHQWLDO ULVN RI SURGXFLQJ KLJKHU &2 HPLVVLRQV LI D IUDFWLRQ RI WKH LQMHFWHG JDV LV
SDUWLDOO\ µTXHQFKHG¶ ZLWKLQ WKH FDOFLQHU ZLWK IXUWKHU R[LGDWLRQ GHOD\HG WR WKH F\FORQHV ZKHUHDV IRU
SXOYHUL]HGFRDOSHWFRNHFRPEXVWLRQWKHEXUQLQJSDUWLFOHVDVVLVWLQVXVWDLQLQJWKHIODPH,QWKLVSDSHU
REVHUYHG WUHQGV DUH LGHQWLILHG LQ WKUHH NLOQV DQG FDOFLQHUV DQG VXEVWDQWLDWHG ZLWK UHIHUHQFH WR ILHOG
GDWD VXSSOHPHQWHG E\ GHWDLOHG PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOLQJ EDVHG FDOFXODWLRQV VHHNLQJ FRQGLWLRQV ZKLFK
HQKDQFHWKHQDWXUDOJDV765 WKHUPDOVXEVWLWXWLRQUDWH XSWR

&+(0,&$/$1'3+<6,&$/3523(57,(62)1$785$/*$6$1'&2$/
7DEOH  D  E  JLYHV WKH FRPSDUDWLYH SK\VLFDO DQG FKHPLFDO SURSHUWLHV RI QDWXUDO JDV DQG D
ELWXPLQRXVFRDO1DWXUDOJDVKDVDKLJKHUFDUERQDQGK\GURJHQFRQWHQWDQGKHQFHDKLJKHUFDORULILF
YDOXHEXWDORZHUFDUERQ WR K\GURJHQUDWLRDQGKHQFH ORZHU&2HPLVVLRQVWKDQFRDOIRUWKH VDPH
WKHUPDO LQSXW DOPRVW KDOI RQ D NJ0: EDVLV   $V PHQWLRQHG HDUOLHU WKH DGLDEDWLF WHPSHUDWXUH RI
R
QDWXUDO JDV LV DERXW  & ORZHU WKDQ WKDW RI PHGLXP YRODWLOH ELWXPLQRXV FRDO EXW VLQFH SULPDULO\
WKHUHDUHPRUHKHDWORVVHVIURPDFRDOIODPHGXHWRLWVJUHDWHUUDGLDWLYHKHDWWUDQVIHUPRUHHQWKDOS\
KHDWHQHUJ\ LVUHWDLQHGE\WKHQDWXUDOJDVIODPH

7KLVLVWKHUHDVRQWKHZDOOWHPSHUDWXUHLVOLNHO\WRGHFUHDVHZKHQVZLWFKLQJIURPFRDOWRQDWXUDOJDV
+RZHYHUDJDV IODPH LV PRUHFRPSDFWDQGLQWHQVHWKDQ DFRDOIODPHDQGORFDOZDOOKRW VSRWV PD\
RFFXU LI WKHUH LV IODPH LPSLQJHPHQW RQ WKH ZDOO  7KH JDV IODPH FDQ EH IXUWKHU VKRUWHQHG E\
VLJQLILFDQWO\ UDLVLQJ WKH QDWXUDO JDV LQMHFWLRQ YHORFLW\  PV  DV FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH FRDO
WUDQVSRUW YHORFLW\ ZKLFK LV OLPLWHG WR  PV GXH WR EXUQHU HURVLRQ SUREOHPV  :KHQ ILULQJ FRDO
KLJKHU D[LDO DQG UDGLDO DLU YHORFLWLHV DUH UHTXLUHG WKDQ IRU QDWXUDO JDV LQ RUGHU WR PDLQWDLQ D µVKRUW
VKDUS¶ IODPH ZKLFK DYRLGV IODPH LPSLQJHPHQW RQ WKH NLOQ ZDOOV DQG FRQVHTXHQW FRDWLQJ LVVXHV  ,Q
JHQHUDO D VDYLQJ RQ SULPDU\ DLU IDQ SRZHU PD\ EH UHDOL]HG ZKHQ VZLWFKLQJ WR JDV IURP FRDO 
10:IRUQDWXUDOJDVDVFRPSDUHGZLWK10:IRUFRDO 

&RDO&RPSRVLWLRQ  
&DUERQ 
+\GURJHQ 
6XOIXU 
2[\JHQ 
1LWURJHQ 1  
0RLVWXUH 
$VK 
9RODWLOHFRQWHQW 
&DORULILFYDOXH 0-NJ  

'HQVLW\ NJP  
7DEOHD


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 4 of 24

1DWXUDO*DV&RPSRVLWLRQ
&DUERQ 
+\GURJHQ 
2[\JHQ 
1LWURJHQ 1  
&DORULILFYDOXH

0-NJ 
'HQVLW\

NJP 
7DEOHE

)URPVLPSOHKHDWDQGPDVVEDODQFHFDOFXODWLRQVIRUDWGD\FDOFLQHUNLOQZLWKDQHQHUJ\LQSXWRI
 0: WKH PDVV RI FRPEXVWLRQ DQG FDOFLQDWLRQ SURGXFWV DUH VOLJKWO\ OHVV IRU QDWXUDO JDV WKDQ IRU

FRDO E\ VRPH   EXW WKH YROXPHWULF IORZ UDWH 1P K  QDWXUDO JDV SURGXFWV LV FRUUHVSRQGLQJO\
KLJKHU WKDQ IRU FRDO GXH WR WKH ORZHU GHQVLW\ RI ZDWHU YDSRU FRPSDUHG WR &2  $ KLJKHU OHYHO RI
H[FHVV DLU LV KRZHYHU UHTXLUHG WR EXUQ VROLG IXHOV VXFK DV FRDO GXH WR WKH KLJKHU GHPDQG RQ
R[\JHQSDUWLDOSUHVVXUHWRHQVXUHFRPSOHWLRQRIWKHFKDUR[LGDWLRQUHDFWLRQV%\UHGXFLQJWKHFDOFLQHU
H[LWR[\JHQIURPWRXVLQJQDWXUDOJDVWKHYROXPHWULFIORZRIWKHJDVHVH[LWLQJWKHFDOFLQHULV
UHGXFHG E\ QHDUO\   +HQFH DQG LQ JHQHUDO DQ LQFUHDVH LQ FOLQNHU SURGXFWLRQ IURP  WR  LV
DFKLHYDEOH ZKHQ UHGXFLQJ R[\JHQ LQ WKH H[KDXVW JDVHV WR  ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR KLJKHU FOLQNHU
SURGXFWLRQIXUWKHUEHQHILWVRIILULQJQDWXUDOJDVDUHWKHVDYLQJVRQFRDOJULQGLQJFRVWQRWWRPHQWLRQ
WKHFXUUHQWEHQHILWVRIORZHUQDWXUDOJDVSULFHV

7KH SHUFHLYHG DGYDQWDJHV RI QDWXUDO JDV DUH FRXQWHUHG E\ LWV KLJK WRZHU H[LW WHPSHUDWXUHV DQG
GHWHULRUDWLRQRIFOLQNHUTXDOLW\EHFDXVHRIWKHOHVVHUUDGLDWLYHSRZHURIWKHIODPHQHDUWKHNLOQEXUQHU
VRPHWLPHV FRPSRXQGHG E\ DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH HPLVVLRQV RI 12;  &2  $OO WKHVH SUREOHPV FDQ EH
KDQGOHGJLYHQLPSURYHGXQGHUVWDQGLQJDQGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHSURFHVVDQGFRPEXVWLRQUHDFWLRQV
DQG LQWHUDFWLRQV WKURXJK JUDGXDO GHYHORSPHQW EDVHG RQ GHWDLOHG FDOFXODWLRQV RI WKH FHPHQW SODQW¶V
FRPSOH[ DQG QRQOLQHDU SURFHVVHV XVLQJ FRPSXWDWLRQDO DQG QXPHULFDO WHFKQLTXHV VXFK DV 0,&)'
PLQHUDOLQWHUDFWLYHFRPSXWDWLRQDOIOXLGG\QDPLFV 

02',),&$7,216727+(5$:0$7(5,$/&/,1.(5
:KHQILULQJWKHNLOQZLWKQDWXUDOJDVRQO\WUDFHDPRXQWVRIDVKDQGVXOIXUDUHLQWURGXFHGE\WKHIXHO
7KLV UHTXLUHV D UDZPL[ DGMXVWPHQW FRPSDUHG WR FRDOSHWFRNH ILULQJ ZKHUH VLOLFD DQG VXOIXU EHFRPH
LQWHJUDWHGLQWRWKHFOLQNHUWKURXJKWKHEXUQWIXHODVKZLWKPRVWRIWKHIXHOERXQGVXOIXUEHLQJµORFNHG
LQ¶ WKH FOLQNHU GXULQJ WKH VLQWHULQJ UHDFWLRQV  )RU QDWXUDO JDV ILULQJ WKH IHHG FKHPLVWU\ QHHGV WR EH
DGMXVWHG E\ DGGLQJ PRUH VLOLFD WR WKH UDZ PDWHULDO  7KH ODFN RI 62 LQ WKH FOLQNHU DIIHFWV FHPHQW
VWUHQJWK7KLVFDQEHRYHUFRPHE\WKHDGGLWLRQRIJ\SVXPGXULQJWKHFOLQNHUJULQGLQJVWDJH

7+(&20%867,21&+$5$&7(5,67,&2)$1$785$/*$6)/$0(
1DWXUDOJDVFRQWDLQVDKLJKHUSHUFHQWDJHRIOLJKWHUK\GURFDUERQIUDFWLRQVZKLFKUHDGLO\LJQLWHDVWKH\
PL[ZLWKKRWSURGXFWV LJQLWLRQVRXUFH DQGR[LGDQW DLU 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGRLODQGVROLGIXHOVKDYHD
FRPSOH[ PDWUL[ RI ERWK OLJKWHU DQG KHDYLHU K\GURFDUERQ IUDFWLRQV 8SRQ LJQLWLRQ WKHVH IXHOV LQLWLDOO\
XQGHUJRGHYRODWLOLVDWLRQZKHUHOLJKWHUK\GURFDUERQIUDFWLRQVVLPLODUWRQDWXUDOJDVDUHUHOHDVHGDQG
EXUQ FORVH WR WKH GURSOHWV RU VROLG SDUWLFOHV WKHUHE\ LQFUHDVLQJ WKHLU WHPSHUDWXUHV DQG FDXVLQJ WKH
UHOHDVH RI KHDYLHU IUDFWLRQV HJ WDUV WKURXJK VHFRQGDU\ S\URO\VLV  7KH KHDYLHU K\GURFDUERQ
PROHFXOHV ILUVW JR WKURXJK D FKDLQ EUHDNXS SURFHVV DQG WKHQ EXUQ RQ WKH UHPDLQLQJ DVKFKDU
SDUWLFOHV6RPHRIWKHFKDUFDUERQDOVREXUQVGXULQJWKHVHSKDVHVZKLOHWKHUHPDLQLQJFDUERQLQDVK
FKDU  FRQWLQXHV WR EXUQ LQ WKH ILQDO SKDVH RI WKH FRPEXVWLRQ SURFHVV 7KH KHDW UHOHDVH DQG WKH
WUDQVIHU RI KHDW WR WKH NLOQ ZDOOV DQG PHDO SDUWLFOHV YHU\ PXFK GHSHQG RQ WKH EXUQHU PRPHQWXP
UHODWLYH WR WKH DGMDFHQW VWUHDPV WKH VHFRQGDU\ DLU DQG NLOQ ULVHU JDVHVWHUWLDU\ DLU 7KH NLOQ DQG
FDOFLQHUSUHKHDWHUDUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\GLIIHUHQWKHDWWUDQVIHUFLUFXPVWDQFHV FRXQWHUIORZLQJDQGFR
IORZLQJVWUHDPVDQGUHVLGHQFHWLPHYDULDWLRQV UHTXLULQJDGHWDLOHGXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIERWKWKHSURFHVV
DQG FRPEXVWLRQ  7KHVH DUH GLVFXVVHG XQGHU VHSDUDWH KHDGLQJV EHORZ ZLWK H[DPSOHV IURP SODQWV
VXSSRUWHG E\ PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOLQJ LQ WKLV FDVH 0,&)' PLQHUDO LQWHUDFWLYH FRPSXWDWLRQDO IOXLG
G\QDPLFV VHH ^ ` IRU H[DPSOH  7KHUH LV IHZ SODQW GDWD DYDLODEOH LQ WKH RSHQ OLWHUDWXUH ZKLFK
ZRXOGHQDEOHDFOHDUHULGHQWLILFDWLRQRIZKDWFRPEXVWLRQPRGLILFDWLRQVDUHUHTXLUHGIRUWUDQVIHUULQJWR
JDV ILULQJ ZKLOH PD[LPL]LQJ WKH EHQHILWV ,Q IDFW VRPH YHU\ UHFHQW H[SHULHQFH VKRZV LQFRQVLVWHQW

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 5 of 24 2013-CIC-060

WUHQGVLQVRPHSODQWV LPSURYHG FOLQNHUSURGXFWLRQZDVREVHUYHGZKHUHDVRWKHUVVDZ GHWHULRUDWLRQ


^`

1$785$/*$6),5,1*,17+()5217(1' .,/1%851(5$'-8670(176 
5HJDUGOHVV RI WKH IXHO W\SH DQ LQWHQVH OLWEDFN DQG VKRUW IODPH LQ WKH NLOQ LV XVXDOO\ UHTXLUHG WR
SURGXFHFOLQNHURIDFFHSWDEOHFRPSRVLWLRQPLQHUDORJ\ DQG FU\VWDOVL]H ,Q DZHWRU ORQJ GU\NLOQD
QDWXUDO JDV WKHUPDO VXEVWLWXWLRQ UDWH 765  RI XS WR  SURYLGHG LW LV ILWWHG ZLWK D PXOWLFKDQQHO
EXUQHUVKRXOGUHTXLUHOLWWOHRUPLQLPXPEXUQHUSRVLWLRQLQJDQGVHWWLQJVDGMXVWPHQW)RUDKLJKHU765
KRZHYHU DGMXVWPHQWV DQGRU DOWHUDWLRQV DUH OLNHO\ WR EH PDQGDWRU\  :H ZLOO ILUVW GLVFXVV SODQW
H[SHULHQFH IROORZHG E\ H[DPSOHV RI JDV DQG FRDO ILULQJ LQ IRXU NLOQV DQG IRXU FDOFLQHUV ZKLFK ZHUH
PRGHOHGDQGIRUZKLFKWKHUHVXOWVZHUHYDOLGDWHGDJDLQVWWKHSODQWREVHUYDWLRQVIRUDWOHDVWRQHVHW
RIRSHUDWLQJFRQGLWLRQV

5(&(173/$17(;3(5,(1&(
,Q3ODQW$ DORQJZHWNLOQ XSWRQDWXUDOJDV765ZDVDFKLHYHGZLWKRXWPDMRUFKDQJHVWRWKH
NLOQ EXUQHU DSDUW IURP VOLJKWO\ PRYLQJ WKH EXUQHU LQVLGH WKH NLOQ QRVH ULQJ E\ DERXW  FP DQG
UHGXFLQJLWVPRPHQWXPIURP10:ZKLFKZDVWKHFDVHIRU FRDOILULQJWRDERXW10:7KHVH
FKDQJHV KHOSHG LQ LQFUHDVLQJ WKH OHQJWK RI WKH IODPH DQG LQ PRYLQJ WKH NLOQ FRDWLQJ WR WKH XSSHU
WUDQVLWLRQV]RQHZKHUHLWIRUPHGZLWKFRDOILULQJ7KHHIIHFWRQVWDFNHPLVVLRQVRI12;DQG&2ZDV
QHJOLJLEOHDVDVPDOOLQFUHDVHLQWKHIODPHWHPSHUDWXUHHQYHORSH GXHWROHVVUDGLDWLYHKHDWORVVIURP
WKHJDVIODPHWRWKHVXUURXQGLQJ SURGXFLQJKLJKHU12;LQWKHJDVIODPHZKLFKZDVUHGXFHGWKURXJK
WKH XVH RI PLGNLOQ ZKROH WLUH LQMHFWLRQ  2YHUDOO 3ODQW $ REVHUYHG D SURGXFWLRQ ORVV RI  DW 
QDWXUDOJDV765

,Q 3ODQW % D ORQJ ZHW NLOQ  DJDLQ D ORQJHU DQG OHVV LQWHQVH OD]LHU  JDV IODPH ZDV UHTXLUHG ZKHQ
VZLWFKLQJ IURP FRDO WR D ORZ YRODWLOH FRNH DQG QDWXUDO JDV  7KH UHVXOW ZDV D VOLJKWO\ UHGXFHG NLOQ
EDFNHQGWHPSHUDWXUHDORQJZLWK IUHHOLPHLQWKH FOLQNHU2YHUDOONLOQSURGXFWLRQ LQFUHDVHGE\ DERXW
 GXVW ORVVHV ZHUH UHGXFHG E\ QHDUO\  ZLWK D VOLJKW UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH NLOQ EDFNHQG 12;
HPLVVLRQVDQGHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQ NFDONJFOLQNHU 

,QDSUHFDOFLQHUNLOQ 3ODQW& DSURGXFWLRQLQFUHDVHRIDERXWZDVREVHUYHGZLWKQDWXUDO
JDV ILULQJ DIWHU PDNLQJ VRPH VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG DGMXVWPHQWV WR WKH EXUQHU VHWWLQJV 7KH QDWXUDO JDV
LQMHFWLRQ YHORFLWLHV ZHUH PXFK KLJKHU  PV  WKDQ IRU FRDO  PV  LQ RUGHU WR REWDLQ DQ LQWHQVH
IODPH6PDOOEXUQHUSRVLWLRQDGMXVWPHQWVZHUHPDGHWRREWDLQDVLPLODUIODPHVKDSHDQGOHQJWK:LWK
WKH GHFUHDVHG WKH NLOQ EDFNHQG R[\JHQ WKH NLOQ EDFNHQG 12; HPLVVLRQV ZHUH LQFUHDVHG E\ 
KRZHYHUDKLJKHUGHJUHHRI12;UHGXFWLRQZDVDFKLHYHGLQWKHFDOFLQHUWKURXJKWKHQDWXUDOµUHEXUQ¶
ZLWKLQWKHFDOFLQHUUHTXLULQJDOHVVGHPDQGRIDPPRQLDLQMHFWLRQ 61&5 7KHLQFUHDVHLQ12;
LQWKHNLOQZDVGXHWR KLJKHUORFDOIODPHWHPSHUDWXUHVGXHWRWKHUHGXFHGH[FHVVDLUUHTXLUHPHQWRI
QDWXUDO JDV KRZHYHU WKH OHVV 12 IRUPDWLRQ DQG D KLJKHU 12; UHGXFWLRQ RI WKH NLOQ JHQHUDWHG 12;
ZLWKQDWXUDOJDVILULQJLQWKHFDOFLQHUKHOSHGLQDQHWOHVVXVHRI61&5 DPPRQLD 

5(68/76)520$&20%867,21$1'0,1(5$/0$7+(0$7,&$/02'(/ 0,&)' 
7KH FRPEXVWLRQPLQHUDO LQWHUDFWLRQV ZKLFK RFFXU LQ NLOQV DQG FDOFLQHUV LQYROYH FRPSOH[ SK\VLR
FKHPLFDO SURFHVVHV LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO IOXLG PHFKDQLFV DQG WKHUPDO UDGLDWLRQ
WUDQVIHU 7KH RQO\ WKHRUHWLFDO PHWKRGRORJ\ WKDW HQDEOHV XVHIXO LQVLJKW LQWR DQG SUDFWLFDO
XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI DOO WKLV LV 0,&)' 7KH SUHVHQW 0,&)' PRGHO KDV EHHQ GHVFULEHG LQ GHWDLO
HOVHZKHUH UHIV 

%ULHIO\ WKH PRGHO LV D FRPSXWDWLRQDO IOXLG G\QDPLFV FRGH FDSDEOH RI KDQGOLQJ PXOWLIXHO ILULQJ DQG
VSHFLILFDOO\GHYHORSHGWRWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWDQ\QXPEHUDQGFRPELQDWLRQVRIJDVHRXVOLTXLGDQGVROLG
IXHOV HJ 5') $65 66 :: 0%0 06::7&   ,W KDV EHHQ IRUPXODWHG SULPDULO\ IRU FHPHQW
DQGOLPHNLOQVDQGFDOFLQHUVZKHUHWKHFRPEXVWLRQDQGPLQHUDOUHDFWLRQVDUHGLUHFWO\FRXSOHG7RGDWH
WKHPRGHOKDVEHHQVXFFHVVIXOO\YDOLGDWHGDQGDSSOLHGWRRYHUFHPHQWNLOQVDQGFDOFLQHUV

)LJXUHV'WR'FRPSDUHWKHSUHGLFWHGKHDWIOX[HV N:P IRUDQDWXUDOJDVSOXVZDVWHRLOIXHO 
DQG  E\ WKHUPDO ORDG UHVSHFWLYHO\  DQG FRDO ILUHG YLD D PXOWLFKDQQHO EXUQHU LQ D PRGHUQ VKRUW
 

5HIXVHGGHULYHGIXHODXWRPRWLYHVKUHGGHUUHVLGXHVHZDJHVOXGJHZDVWHZRRGPHDWDQGERQH
PLOOPXQLFLSDOVROLGZDVWHZDVWHWLUHFKLSV

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 6 of 24

SUHFDOFLQHUNLOQ 3ODQW' 7KHNLOQZDVUXQQLQJRQWKHJDVSOXVZDVWHRLOIXHO$0,&)'PRGHOZDV


FRQVWUXFWHGDQGYDOLGDWHGIRUQDWXUDOJDVDVZHOODVRWKHUZDVWHGHULYHGIXHOVIRU765VRIXSWR
)RUWKHSUHVHQWSDSHUDIXUWKHUVLPXODWLRQIRUK\SRWKHWLFDOFRDOILULQJKDVEHHQFRPSXWHGDQG
FRPSDUHGZLWKWKHDFWXDOQDWXUDOJDVSOXVZDVWHRLOIXHOILULQJ)LJXUHV'DQG'DORQJZLWKILJXUHV
'DQG'IRUNLOQWHPSHUDWXUHUHYHDOWKHODWWHUIODPHWREHPRUHLQWHQVHDQGFRPSDFW$VVHHQLQ
WKHVH ILJXUHV WKH KHDW IOX[ WR WKH FKDUJH JUDGXDOO\ LQFUHDVHV IRU WKH FRDO IODPH DQG WKHQ JUDGXDOO\
GHFUHDVHV )RU WKH QDWXUDO JDV IODPH WKHVH WUHQGV DUH PRUH SURQRXQFHG 7KLV LV GXH WR WKH KLJKHU
PL[LQJUDWHRIWKHQDWXUDOJDVZLWKWKHVHFRQGDU\DLUFRPSDUHGZLWKFRDODVZHOODVWKHLJQLWLRQGHOD\
RI WKH FRDO SDUWLFOHV WKH EXUQHU VWDQGRII GLVWDQFH EHLQJ DERXW P PRUH WKDQ IRU WKH QDWXUDO JDV
IODPH7KHKHDWIOX[LQWKHWDLORIWKHFRDOIODPHJUDGXDOO\GHFUHDVHVGXHWRWKHVORZKHDWUHOHDVHUDWH
GXULQJWKHILQDOSKDVHRIFKDUSDUWLFOHVEXUQRXW2IVLJQLILFDQFHWKHPRUHFRPSDFWDQGEHWWHUVKDSH
RIWKHQDWXUDOJDVIODPHLVDOVRUHIOHFWHGLQWKHKLJKHU&6DQGORZHU&D2YDOXHVDVFRPSDUHGZLWK
WKHFRDOIODPHDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHV'DQG'

1RWHWKDWLQWKHPRGHOLQJH[HUFLVHWKHOHYHOVRIH[FHVVDLUDQGIXHOWKHUPDOLQSXWVIRUWKHWZRIODPHV
ZHUH NHSW WKH VDPH 3UHGLFWLYH H[SORUDWLRQV DLPHG DW VHHNLQJ LPSURYHG NLOQ SHUIRUPDQFH IRU FRDO
ILULQJ QR GRXEW VWLOO DFKLHYDEOH ZHUH QRW DWWHPSWHG ,W LV OLNHO\ WKDW LPSURYHG SHUIRUPDQFH FRXOG EH
DFKLHYHGZLWKDKLJKHUFRDOEXUQHUPRPHQWXP 10: DQGRUEXUQHUWLSDGMXVWPHQWVZLWKUHIHUHQFH
WRWKHNLOQQRVHULQJ


+)OX[ N:P 

)LJXUH'1DWXUDO*DV&DVH+HDW)OX[

)LJXUH'&RDO&DVH+HDW)OX[

)LJXUH'1DWXUDO*DV&DVH+HDW)OX[ %HG9LHZ 

)LJXUH'&RDO&DVH+HDW)OX[ %HG9LHZ 

R
7 & 


)LJXUH'1DWXUDO*DV&DVH7HPSHUDWXUH

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 7 of 24 2013-CIC-060


)LJXUH'&RDO&DVH7HPSHUDWXUH


Ϭ͘ϰϰ
Ϭ͘ϯϵ
Ϭ͘ϯϰ Kϯ

Ϭ͘Ϯϵ ^/KϮ

Ϭ͘Ϯϰ K

Ϭ͘ϭϵ Ϯ^
ϯ
Ϭ͘ϭϰ
ϰ&
Ϭ͘Ϭϵ
ϯ^
Ϭ͘Ϭϰ
ͲϬ͘Ϭϭ
Ϭ ϰ ϴ ϭϮ ϭϲ ϮϬ Ϯϰ Ϯϴ ϯϮ ϯϲ ϰϬ ϰϰ ϰϴ ϱϮ ϱϲ ϲϬ

)LJXUH',QWHUQDO3URILOHRI&OLQNHU&RPSRVLWLRQ 1DWXUDO*DV&DVH 

Ϭ͘ϰϰ
Ϭ͘ϯϵ
Ϭ͘ϯϰ Kϯ

Ϭ͘Ϯϵ ^/KϮ

Ϭ͘Ϯϰ K

Ϭ͘ϭϵ Ϯ^
ϯ
Ϭ͘ϭϰ
ϰ&
Ϭ͘Ϭϵ
ϯ^
Ϭ͘Ϭϰ
ͲϬ͘Ϭϭ
Ϭ ϰ ϴ ϭϮ ϭϲ ϮϬ Ϯϰ Ϯϴ ϯϮ ϯϲ ϰϬ ϰϰ ϰϴ ϱϮ ϱϲ ϲϬ

)LJXUH',QWHUQDO3URILOHRI&OLQNHU&RPSRVLWLRQ &RDO&DVH 

1$785$/*$6),5,1*,1&$/&,1(56%851(5$'-8670(176
$ IHZ FDOFLQHU H[DPSOHV DUH QRZ SUHVHQWHG ,Q LQLWLDO YDOLGDWLRQ H[HUFLVHV 0,&)' PRGHOLQJ UHVXOWV
ZHUH YDOLGDWHG DJDLQVW PHDVXUHG SODQW GDWD IRU FRDO ILULQJ )ROORZLQJ VXFFHVVIXO FRPSOHWLRQ RI WKH
YDOLGDWLRQH[HUFLVHVDGGLWLRQDOFRPSXWHUVLPXODWLRQVZHUHFDUULHGRXWLQRUGHUWRFRPSDUHVXEVWLWXWLQJ
FRDOZLWKQDWXUDOJDVRUQDWXUDOJDVZLWKFRDO

$W 3ODQW ( LW ZDV REVHUYHG WKDW EHFDXVH RI LWV VKRUW UHVLGHQFH WLPH OHVV WKDQ  VHFRQGV  WKH
PD[LPXP FDOFLQHU QDWXUDO JDV VXEVWLWXWLRQ UDWH WKDW FRXOG EH XVHIXOO\ DFKLHYHG ZDV  7KLV LV
EHFDXVH DVWKH 765RI QDWXUDO JDVZDV LQFUHDVHGWKHFDOFLQHURYHUKHDWHG GXH WRWKHUHGXFHG KHDW
WUDQVIHU WR WKH PHDO DQG HVVHQWLDOO\ LQFRPSOHWH WUDQVIHU RI KHDW WR WKH PHDO SDUWLFOHV ZKLFK EH\RQG
WKH FDOFLQHU EHFRPHV OHVV HIILFLHQW DQG DV D UHVXOW LQFUHDVLQJ WKH WRZHU WHPSHUDWXUHV DQG LQFXUULQJ

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 8 of 24

NLOQSURGXFWLRQORVVHV:KHQQDWXUDOJDVILULQJZDVVLPXODWHGLQWKHFDOFLQHUDUHGXFWLRQLQ
FOLQNHUSURGXFWLRQZDVREVHUYHG

6XSSRUWLQJ0,&)'SUHGLFWLRQVRIFRDOILULQJFRQGLWLRQVVKRZHGDQDYHUDJHFRDOEXUQRXWIURPWKHIRXU
EXUQHUV RI   :KHQ WKH VDPH PXOWLFKDQQHO EXUQHUV ZHUH XVHG IRU 1* ILULQJ  765  WKH
FDOFLQHUH[LWWHPSHUDWXUHLQFUHDVHGIURPR&WRR&DVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH(

7KH SUREOHP RI WKH HOHYDWHG H[LW WHPSHUDWXUH IRU  1* ZDV RYHUFRPH E\ UHORFDWLQJ WKH  JDV
EXUQHUV EHORZ WKH H[LVWLQJ PHDO LQOHWV WR HQDEOH EHWWHU KHDW WUDQVIHU WR WKH PHDO SDUWLFOHV  7KLV
UHSUHVHQWV WKH RSWLPXP ZD\ IRUZDUG IRU WKH VXFFHVVIXO LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI  FRQYHUVLRQ WR 1*
7KH JDV LQMHFWLRQ YHORFLWLHV ZHUH LQFUHDVHG WR  PV ZKLFK KHOSHG WR H[WHQG WKH 1* IODPH DQG
LQFUHDVHWKHWUDQVIHURIKHDWWRWKHPHDOSDUWLFOHVYLDFRQYHFWLRQ )LJXUH( 

%XUQHUV
%XUQHUV %XUQHUV

0HDO,QOHWV 0HDO,QOHWV 0HDO,QOHWV

&RDO 1* 1*2SWLPL]HG



)LJXUH(,QOHW/RFDWLRQV


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 9 of 24 2013-CIC-060

([LW7HPS ([LW7HPS ([LW7HPS


R& R& R
 &

7 R& 

&RDO 1* 1*2SWLPL]HG


)LJXUH(7HPSHUDWXUH3URILOHV

7KHVHPRGLILFDWLRQVZLOOLPSURYHWKHKHDWWUDQVIHUIURPWKHJDVIODPHVPDNLQJLWSRVVLEOHWRLQFUHDVH
SURGXFWLRQE\FRPSDUHGZLWKFRDOVLPXODWHGE\LQFUHDVLQJWKHPHDOIHHGUDWHLQWRWKHFDOFLQHU
3ODQW(LVLQWKHSURFHVVRILPSOHPHQWLQJWKHVHVXJJHVWHGPRGLILFDWLRQV

,Q DQRWKHU VKRUW UHVLGHQFH WLPH FDOFLQHU  VHFRQGV  3ODQW ) ZKHQ LWV IRXU FRDO EXUQHUV ZHUH
UHSODFHG E\ D VHW RI IRXU QDWXUDO JDV EXUQHUV D VOLJKW LQFUHDVH LQ WKH FDOFLQHU H[LW WHPSHUDWXUH ZDV
REVHUYHG IRU  JDV ILULQJ  7KH SODQW ) FDOFLQHU ZDV RULJLQDOO\ GHVLJQHG IRU JDV DQG ODWHU
FRQYHUWHGWRFRDOILULQJ,WWRRNWKHSODQWVHYHUDO\HDUVRIGHWDLOHGVWXGLHVWRLPSURYHWKHEXUQRXWRIWKH
FRDOSDUWLFOHVLQWKHDYDLODEOHVHFRQGVDVDUHVXOWRIIORZVWUDWLILFDWLRQSUREOHPVGXHWRWKHVLPLODU
RULHQWDWLRQVRIWKHWHUWLDU\DLUDQGWKHFDOFLQHUH[LWFDXVLQJDVKRUWFLUFXLWLQJRIWKHWHUWLDU\DLU ZKHUHD
SDUWRIWKHWHUWLDU\ZLOOOHDYHWKHFDOFLQHUZLWKRXWWDNLQJSDUWLQWKHFRPEXVWLRQUHDFWLRQV 7KHFDOFLQHU
JHRPHWU\ LQFOXGLQJ PHDO LQOHWV DQG WKH IRXU EXUQHU ORFDWLRQV LV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH )  &RPSDUDWLYH
SUHGLFWHG WHPSHUDWXUH SURILOHV IRU WKH WZR IXHOV DUH JLYHQ LQ ) ZKLOH WKH GHJUHH RI FDOFLQDWLRQ LV
VKRZQLQ)


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 10 of 24

:KHQWKHIXHOLVQDWXUDOJDVWKHUHLVVOLJKWO\PRUHKHDWUHOHDVHGLQWKHLQLWLDOSRUWLRQRIWKH FDOFLQHU
FRQHDUHDGXHWRWKHIDVWHUPL[LQJRIWKHLQMHFWHGQDWXUDOJDVIURPWKHULVHUGXFWEXUQHUZKLFKPL[HV
TXLFNO\ZLWKWKHKLJKHUPRPHQWXPVXUURXQGLQJJDV )LJ) ,QFRQWUDVWFRDOSDUWLFOHVUHOHDVHKHDW
PRUHJUDGXDOO\7KHVKRUWFDOFLQHUUHVLGHQFHWLPHOLPLWVWKHPD[LPXPEXUQRXWRIWKHFRDOSDUWLFOHVEXW
QDWXUDOJDVZLWKIDVWHUPL[LQJ EXUQVDWDIDVWHUUDWHWKHUHE\UHOHDVLQJPRUHKHDW ZLWKLQWKHFDOFLQHU
+RZHYHUWKHORZHUUDGLDWLYHKHDWWUDQVIHURIWKHQDWXUDOJDVUHVXOWVLQOHVVHIIHFWLYHPHDOFDOFLQDWLRQ
WDNLQJSODFHZLWKLQWKHFDOFLQHUDVVKRZQE\ &KLJKHUJDV H[LWWHPSHUDWXUHVRIWKH QDWXUDOJDV
IODPH )LJ )  $ KLJKHU R[\JHQ FRQVXPSWLRQ RI WKH 1* IODPH LV VKRZQ LQ )LJ ) 3ODQW ) DIWHU
RULJLQDOO\ EHLQJ FRQYHUWHG IURP QDWXUDO JDV WR FRDO ILULQJ VXIIHUHG IURP VHYHUH FDOFLQHU EXLOGXS
SUREOHPV UHTXLULQJ DW OHDVW WZLFH SHU VKLIW PHFKDQLFDO FOHDQLQJ DORQJ ZLWK H[WHQVLYH XVH RI DLU
EODVWHUV7KHVKLIWWRFRDOILULQJZDVGXHWRORZHUFRDOSULFHVGXULQJWKHODVWWZRGHFDGHV3ODQW)LV
QRZORRNLQJIRUZDUGWRUHYHUWLQJEDFNWRQDWXUDOJDVILULQJE\UHDGDSWLQJWRWKHSUHYLRXVO\RSWLPL]HG
FRPEXVWLRQDQGSURFHVVFRQGLWLRQVRIJDVILULQJLQYROYLQJWKHUHORFDWLRQRIWKHQDWXUDOJDVEXUQHUVWR
RYHUFRPHWKHFDOFLQHUH[LWWHPSHUDWXUHSUREOHP7KHRSWLPL]DWLRQRIWKH1*EXUQHUVZDVRXWVLGHWKH
VFRSH RI WKLV SDSHU DQG LI FDUULHG RXW ZLOO EH UHSRUWHG DW D VXEVHTXHQW GDWH +RZHYHU WKH 0,&)'
SUHGLFWLRQVFOHDUO\GHPRQVWUDWHWKDWWKHVKLIWIURPDVROLGIXHOIODPHWRDJDVRQHLVQRWVLPSOLVWLFDQG
WKH EDODQFH EHWZHHQ WKH EHWWHU PL[LQJ DQG KHDW UHOHDVH RI JDV FRPEXVWLRQ DQG LWV SRRU KHDW
GLVVLSDWLRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVUHTXLUHVFDUHIXOFRQVLGHUDWLRQ


)LJXUH)&DOFLQHU*HRPHWU\ZLWK,QOHWV

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 11 of 24 2013-CIC-060

([LW7HPS ([LW7HPS
R& R&

R
7 & 

6OLJKWO\PRUHKHDW
UHOHDVHLQ1*

7$7HPSR&

.LOQ*DVHV7HPS
R&

1*
&RDO

)LJXUH)7HPSHUDWXUH&RQWRXUV


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 12 of 24

 

&DOFLQDWLRQ

&RDO 1*


)LJXUH)&DOFLQDWLRQRI0HDO3DUWLFOHVDORQJWKHLU7UDMHFWRULHV


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 13 of 24 2013-CIC-060

([LW2 ([LW2

&RDO 1*

)LJXUH)2[\JHQ&RQWRXUV &RDO3DUWLFOH7UDMHFWRULHVLQ%ODFN 

7KHQH[WH[DPSOH3ODQW*FRQVLGHUVDORQJHUJDVUHVLGHQFHWLPHFDOFLQHU VHFRQGV 7KHEXUQHUV
DUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUH*6OLJKWO\KLJKHUH[LWWHPSHUDWXUHVDQG FDOFLQDWLRQOHYHOVZHUHFDOFXODWHGIRU
JDVILULQJGXHWRLWVPDUJLQDOO\EHWWHUFRPEXVWLRQUDWH )LJV* 7KHUDWLRQDOHIRUGHFLGLQJWRSUHGLFW
3ODQW * ZDV ILUVWO\ LWV ORQJHU UHVLGHQFH WLPH DQG VHFRQGO\ EHFDXVH DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ FRPSDULVRQ RI
JDVDQGFRDOFRPEXVWLRQFDQEHDIIHFWHGXQGHUKLJKHUWHPSHUDWXUHWHUWLDU\DLUFRQGLWLRQVDVZHOODV
KLJKHUWHPSHUDWXUHULVHUGXFWJDVHVEXWFRQWDLQLQJORZHUR[\JHQFRQWHQW  )LJXUHV*DQG*
VKRZWKDW1*IXHOPL[HVZLWKWKHDYDLODEOHR[\JHQDWDIDVWHUUDWHWKDQIRUFRDOZLWKWKHUHVXOWWKDWWKH
QDWXUDO JDV IODPH DFKLHYHV KLJKHU WHPSHUDWXUHV HDUOLHU LQ ERWK WKH WHUWLDU\ DLU DV ZHOO DV WKH ULVHU
GXFWV )XUWKHU GRZQVWUHDP ZKHQ WKH WZR GXFWV MRLQ XQEXUQW JDV PL[HV ZLWK WKH WHUWLDU\ DLU DW WKH
LQWHUIDFHRIWKHULVHUDQGWHUWLDU\DLUGXFWVWUHDPVLQFUHDVLQJWKHWHPSHUDWXUHZKHUHDVXQEXUQWFKDU
SDUWLFOHV UHOHDVH KHDW DW D PXFK VORZHU UDWH DV HYLGHQW LQ WKH IODWWHU WHPSHUDWXUH GLVWULEXWLRQ
+RZHYHUGXHWRWKHUHODWLYHO\ORZHUHPLVVLYLW\RIWKH1*IODPHLWVKHDWWUDQVIHUUDWHWRWKHPHDODQG
FDOFLQHU ZDOOV LV OHVV YLD UDGLDWLRQ EXW KLJKHU YLD FRQYHFWLRQ EXW RYHUDOO ZLWK D KLJKHU FDOFLQHU
UHVLGHQFHWLPHDVOLJKWO\EHWWHUFDOFLQDWLRQRIPHDOSDUWLFOHV DVFRPSDUHGZLWK LVDFKLHYHG
ZLWKWKH1*IODPH

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 14 of 24


,QWKHFDVHRIIXHOULFKDQGIXHOOHDQPL[LQJUHJLRQVDVZDVWKHFDVHLQ3ODQW*WKHORQJHUUHVLGHQFH
WLPH FRPSHQVDWHV ZHOO IRU WKH ODFN RI UDGLDWLYH KHDW WUDQVIHU RI 1* ZLWK LWV EHWWHU PL[LQJ DQG
VXEVHTXHQWKHDWWUDQVIHUWRWKHPHDOSDUWLFOHV)URPWKHPRGHOZKLFKZDVYDOLGDWHGDJDLQVWWKHFRDO
ILULQJFRQGLWLRQVIRU3ODQW*LWDSSHDUVWKDWZLWKIXUWKHULPSURYHPHQWWRWKHFRPEXVWLRQDHURG\QDPLFV
WKHUH LV D SRWHQWLDO IRU LQFUHDVLQJ WKH FOLQNHU SURGXFWLRQ UDWH GHSHQGLQJ RQ RWKHU SODQW FRQVWUDLQWV
HJWKHNLOQILOOIDFWRU,'IDQFDSDFLW\DQGFOLQNHUFRROHUORDGLQJ

.LOQ5LVHU'XFW 7HUWLDU\$LU'XFW .LOQ5LVHU'XFW 7HUWLDU\$LU'XFW

7$'0HDO,QOHW 7$'0HDO,QOHW
5LVHU0HDO,QOHW 5LVHU0HDO,QOHW

7$'&RDO%XUQHUV 7$'*DV%XUQHUV
5LVHU&RDO%XUQHUV 5LVHU*DV%XUQHUV

.LOQ*DVHV .LOQ*DVHV
7HUWLDU\$LU,QOHW 7HUWLDU\$LU,QOHW


)LJXUH*,QOHW/RFDWLRQV


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 15 of 24 2013-CIC-060

([LW7HPS ([LW7HPS
R& R&

R
7 & 

&RDO 1*

)LJXUH*7HPSHUDWXUH&RQWRXUV

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 16 of 24




&DOFLQDWLRQ

&RDO 1*

)LJXUH*&DOFLQDWLRQRI0HDO3DUWLFOHV

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 17 of 24 2013-CIC-060

([LW2 ([LW2

&RDO 1*

)LJXUH*2[\JHQ&RQWRXUV &RDO3DUWLFOH7UDMHFWRULHVLQ%ODFN 

7KH FRPSOH[ IORZ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQVLGH D FDOFLQHU ZKHUH NLOQ ULVHU DQG WHUWLDU\ DLU GXFW IORZV PL[
XVXDOO\ KDYH  PRPHQWXP UDWLRV  7KLV FRPELQHG ZLWK D VKRUW FDOFLQHU UHVLGHQFH WLPH SURPSWV
R[\JHQDQGIXHOVWUDWLILFDWLRQZKLFKLVH[WUHPHO\GLIILFXOWWRDQDO\]HDQGWRGLVWLQJXLVKWKHFXPXODWLYH
HIIHFWVRIFRDODQGQDWXUDOJDVILULQJRQDFDOFLQHUSHUIRUPDQFH

,QWKHSUHYLRXV FRQILJXUDWLRQ 3ODQW* ZHDQDO\]HG1*ILULQJLQWKHULVHUDQGWHUWLDU\DLUGXFWV,WLV
LQWHUHVWLQJ WR FRQVLGHU ZKHUH 1* LV LQMHFWHG LQWR VXEVWLRFKLRPHWULF FRQGLWLRQV RI D NLOQ ULVHU GXFW
FRPSDUHG ZLWK D FRDO IODPH ZKHUH LQVXIILFLHQW EXUQRXW RI FKDU LV H[SHFWHG LQ WKH NLOQ ULVHU GXFW
6XEVHTXHQWO\FRPEXVWLRQSURGXFWVDQGWKHUHVLGXHR[\JHQPL[ZKHQWHUWLDU\DLUDQGNLOQULVHUGXFWV
IRUP LQWR D VLQJOH FDOFLQHU GXFW DQG S\URFORQH PL[LQJ FKDPEHU 7KHUHIRUH LQ RUGHU WR VHSDUDWH WKH
HIIHFW RI WHUWLDU\ DLU PL[LQJ ZKLFK KHOSV LQ FRPSOHWLQJ WKH FKDU FRPEXVWLRQ UHDFWLRQV D VLPSOLILHG
FRQILJXUDWLRQ XQGHU IXHOULFK FRQGLWLRQV WKH DLUWKURXJK $7  FDOFLQHU RI 3ODQW + )LJXUH +  ZDV
VWXGLHGLQPRUHGHSWKLQFOXGLQJWKHHIIHFWRI1*FRQYHUVLRQRQ12;HPLVVLRQV



978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 18 of 24

)LJXUH + VKRZV WKH FRPSDUDWLYH WHPSHUDWXUH SURILOHV IRU FRDO DQG QDWXUDO JDV ILULQJ XVLQJ PXOWL
FKDQQHOEXUQHUVXQGHURSWLPL]HGFRQGLWLRQVIRUFRDOILULQJ$KRWWHUQDWXUDOJDVIODPHLVLQLWLDOO\VHHQ
ZKLFKFRROVDWDVORZHUUDWHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHFRDOIODPHGXHWRLWVZHDNHUUDGLDWLYHSRZHU$WH[LW
WKHWHPSHUDWXUHSURILOHVH[KLELWVRPHFRQIRUPLW\EXWWKHFRDOIODPHJDVHVH[LWWKHFDOFLQHUDWDVOLJKWO\
R R
KLJKHU WHPSHUDWXUH WKDQ IRU JDV  & DQG  & IRU FRDO DQG 1* IODPHV UHVSHFWLYHO\  7KH
RSSRVLWH WUHQG KLJKHU WHPSHUDWXUHV IRU FRDO ILULQJ DW WKH FDOFLQHU H[LW LQ FRPSDULVRQ WR 1*  ZKLFK
ZDV REVHUYHG HDUOLHU LV GXH WR WKH HDUOLHU PL[LQJ DQG FRPEXVWLRQ RI WKH 1* 8QGHU WKH R[\JHQ
VWDUYHGFRQGLWLRQVRIWKH $7FDOFLQHU FKDUSDUWLFOHVEXUQVORZO\UHOHDVLQJKHDWLQWRWKHJDVSKDVHLQ
DPRUHSURWUDFWHGPDQQHU7KLVLVDOVRHYLGHQWIURPR[\JHQDQGFDOFLQDWLRQSORWV)LJ+ZKHUH
PRUH R[\JHQ KDV EHHQ FRQVXPHG E\ WKH 1* IODPH GXH WR LWV HQKDQFHG PL[LQJ SRWHQWLDO FRPSDUHG
ZLWKFRDO

7KHHIIHFWRIFRQYHUVLRQIURPFRDOWR1*RQFDOFLQHU12;HPLVVLRQVZDVDVVHVVHGE\VLPXODWLQJWZR
VHWVRI12;SUHGLFWLRQVXQGHULGHQWLFDOSODQWRSHUDWLQJFRQGLWLRQV  NHHSLQJWKHVDPHNLOQEDFNHQG
12; YDOXHV  SSP  IRU ERWK WKH 1* DQG FRDO IODPHV DQG   LQFUHDVLQJ WKH NLOQ EDFNHQG 12;
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVE\ SSP IRUWKH1* DVVXPLQJDKLJKHUWKHUPDO12;IRUPDWLRQZKHQILULQJ
1*LQWKHPDLQEXUQHU 

)RUFDVH  ZKHUHLGHQWLFDONLOQEDFNHQG12[YDOXHVZHUHXVHG1*IODPHUHGXFHVNLOQJHQHUDWHG
12;E\ SSP#2 ZLWKLQWKHFDOFLQHUDVFRPSDUHGZLWKSSP#2IURPWKH
FRDO IODPH :KHUHDV IRU FDVH   ZKHQ WKH NLOQ EDFNHQG 12; ZDV DVVXPHG WR KDYH LQFUHDVHG E\
 VWLOO D VPDOO   UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH FDOFLQHU H[LW 12; FRQFHQWUDWLRQV ZDV REVHUYHG IRU WKH 1*
IODPH SSP#2 

7KHLQFUHDVHG12;UHGXFWLRQLQWKH1*IODPHLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKH3ODQW&UHVXOWVUHSRUWHGHDUOLHU
ZKHUH1*ILULQJQRWRQO\SURGXFHGOLWWOH12;IURPLWVIODPHEXWZDVDOVRPRUHHIIHFWLYHLQDFKLHYLQJD
KLJKHU12;UHGXFWLRQRIWKHNLOQJHQHUDWHG12;E\GLIIXVLQJPRUHLQWRWKHULVHUGXFW SURGXFLQJVXE
VWLRFKLRPHWULFFRQGLWLRQVLQDEURDGHUUHJLRQRIWKHNLOQULVHUGXFW DVFRPSDUHGZLWKFRDOSDUWLFOHV,Q
3ODQW&FRQYHUVLRQWR1*UHVXOWHGLQDQHWVDYLQJRIDERXWLQ61&5DPPRQLD


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 19 of 24 2013-CIC-060

0HDO,QOHWV 0HDO,QOHWV

&RDO%XUQHUV 1*%XUQHUV


)LJXUH+*HRPHWU\RI$LU7KURXJK&DOFLQHU


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 20 of 24

([LW7HPS ([LW7HPS
R& R&

R
7 & 

(DUOLHUPL[LQJ
DQGKHDW
UHOHDVHLQD
1*IODPH

&RDO 1*


)LJXUH+7HPSHUDWXUH&RQWRXUV



978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 21 of 24 2013-CIC-060

&DOFLQDWLRQ± &DOFLQDWLRQ±

&DOFLQDWLRQ

&RDO 1*


)LJXUH+&DOFLQDWLRQRI0HDO3DUWLFOHV

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 22 of 24

([LW2 ([LW2

&RDO 1*


)LJXUH+2[\JHQ&RQWRXUV &RDO3DUWLFOHV7UDMHFWRULHVLQ%ODFN 


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


Page 23 of 24 2013-CIC-060

([LW12[ ([LW12[
SSP SSP

&RDO 1*


)LJXUH+12[&RQWRXUV &RDO3DUWLFOHV7UDMHFWRULHVLQ%ODFN 

&21&/8',1*5(0$5.6
$FRPSDULVRQRIFRDOILULQJDQGQDWXUDOJDVILULQJLQFHPHQWSODQWVLVJLYHQLQWKLVSDSHUZKHUHSODQW
REVHUYDWLRQVIURPZHWGU\DQGVKRUWFDOFLQHUNLOQVDQGFDOFLQHUVDUHUHYLHZHG $OOWKHUHSRUWHGGDWD
KDYH EHHQ DUFKLYHG IURP YDULRXV FHPHQW SODQWV ZKLFK KDYH KDG H[SHULHQFH RI ILULQJ WKHVH IXHOV
$GGLWLRQDO LQIRUPDWLRQ VSHFLILF WR FRPEXVWLRQ DQG SURFHVV LQWHUDFWLRQV LQVLGH NLOQV DQG FDOFLQHUV
LQDFFHVVLEOHGXHWRWKHH[WUHPHO\KDUVKDQGLQWHQVHHQYLURQPHQWWKHUHLQKDVEHHQJHQHUDWHGIURPD
GHWDLOHGPDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHO7KHYDOLGLW\RIWKHSUHGLFWHGUHVXOWVZDVILUVWYHULILHGXVLQJDFWXDOSODQW
GDWDIRUHLWKHUFRDORUQDWXUDOJDVILULQJ

,Q VXPPDU\ D KLJK GHJUHH RI WKHUPDO VXEVWLWXWLRQ RI QDWXUDO JDV LQ FRDOILUHG NLOQV DQG FDOFLQHUV LV
SRVVLEOH ZLWKRXW H[SHULHQFLQJ PDMRU GHWHULRUDWLRQ LQ SODQW SHUIRUPDQFH 7KLV LV SURYLGHG WKDW NLOQ
EXUQHUDQGPXOWLSOHFDOFLQHUEXUQHUVDUUDQJHPHQWVDUHVXLWDEO\VSHFLILHGVRDVWRFRPSHQVDWHIRUWKH
ODFNRIWKHUDGLDWLYHKHDWWUDQVIHUE\WKHQDWXUDOJDVIODPHWKURXJKDKLJKO\WXUEXOHQWDQGLQWHQVHJDV
IODPH7KHUDGLDWLRQGHILFLWFDQEHIXUWKHURIIVHWE\WKHXVHRIPXOWLSOHJDVDQGDLUPL[LQJVFKHPHVWR

978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE


2013-CIC-060 Page 24 of 24

SURYLGH VWDJHG FRPEXVWLRQ WKDW LV IXHOULFK FRQGLWLRQV IROORZHG E\ IXHOOHDQ FRQGLWLRQV WR JLYH WKH
GHVLUHG RYHUDOO VWRLFKLRPHWU\ 7KLV DSSURDFK ZLOO LQFUHDVH NLOQ 12; HPLVVLRQV EXW WKH VXEVHTXHQW
12;UHGXFWLRQSRWHQWLDORIDSURSHUO\GHVLJQHGLQOLQHFDOFLQHUZLOOUHVXOWLQDXJPHQWHG12;UHGXFWLRQ
YLDQDWXUDOJDVILULQJLQWKHFDOFLQHUEHIRUHWKHVWDFN

1DWXUDO JDV ILULQJ LQ FDOFLQHUV ZKHUH FRDOSHWFRNH FKDU EXUQRXW DERYH  LV QRW DFKLHYHG ZLOO
VLJQLILFDQWO\UHGXFHEXLOGXSDQGVXOIXUF\FOHLVVXHV7KLVLVEHFDXVHLIFDUERQLQKRWPHDOLQH[FHVV
RI  LV QRW IXOO\ EXUQW SULRU WR UHDFKLQJ RI WKH HQG RI FDOFLQDWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH NLOQ LW ZLOO UHDFW ZLWK
VXOIDWHFRPSRXQGVOHDGLQJWRH[FHVVLYH62F\FOHVDQGGHSRVLWEXLOGXSV

,W LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR QRWH WKDW ZKLOH D QDWXUDO JDV IODPH LQLWLDOO\ SURGXFHV D KLJKHU IODPH WHPSHUDWXUH
GXHWREHWWHUPL[LQJZLWKWKHR[\JHQLWVKHDWGLVVLSDWLRQUDWHLQWKHQHDUEXUQHUUHJLRQLVVORZHUDV
FRPSDUHGZLWKDFRDOIODPH$ZD\IURPWKHYLVLEOHIODPHUHJLRQVFKDUEXUQRXWUHDFWLRQVDUHVORZHU
DQGUHTXLUHDKLJKHUOHYHORIH[FHVV DLUZKLFKVORZV WKHFRDO KHDWUHOHDVHUDWH7KHODWWHUHIIHFWLV
PRUHSURQRXQFHGIRUORZHUYRODWLOHIXHOVLHSHWFRNHZKHUHDILQHUJULQGDQGKLJKHUH[FHVVDLUOHYHOV
DUHUHTXLUHG&DOFLQHUVZLWKVKRUWHUUHVLGHQFHWLPHVRUOHVVDYDLODELOLW\RIR[\JHQ LH$7FDOFLQHUV 
LQIOXHQFH WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI FRDOSHWFRNH PRUH DGYHUVHO\ FRPSDUHG ZLWK QDWXUDO JDV GXH WR
LQFRPSOHWHFRPEXVWLRQRIWKHVROLGIXHOSURYLGHGDJRRGOHYHORIPL[LQJRIWKHQDWXUDOJDVIXHODQGDLU
LVDFKLHYHG

2QFH FRPEXVWLRQ RSWLPL]DWLRQ LV DFKLHYHG WKHQ WKH RWKHU DGYDQWDJHV RI QDWXUDO JDV ILULQJ FDQ EH
UHDOL]HGLHKLJKHUOHYHOVRIFOLQNHUSURGXFWLRQ E\  ORZHUIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQORZHUEXLOGXSV
DQG GXVW ORVVHV DQG WKH HQHUJ\ VDYLQJV DFFUXHG IURP WKH HOLPLQDWLRQ RI WKH KDQGOLQJ DQG JULQGLQJ
HQHUJ\FRVWVZKLFKDFFRPSDQ\VROLGIXHOV+LJKHUQDWXUDOJDVVXEVWLWXWLRQUDWHVDUHSRVVLEOHWKURXJK
GLOLJHQW LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DQG E\ WDNLQJ D VWHSE\VWHS DSSURDFK ,Q WKLV UHVSHFW WKH XVH RI GHWDLOHG
FRPEXVWLRQ DQGSURFHVVPRGHOVVLJQLILFDQWO\UHGXFHV WKH OHDUQLQJ FXUYHIURP ERWK WKHGXUDWLRQDQG
FRVWSHUVSHFWLYHV


5()(5(1&(6
  &RQWLQXLQJ PRWKEDOOLQJ RI FRDOILUHG SODQWV E\ 5HEHFFD 6PLWK :DOO 6WUHHW -RXUQDO (XURSHDQ
WK
(GLWLRQ 6HSWHPEHU
 $EEDVHWDO  3:RUOG&HPHQW$XJXVW
 (3$UHSRUWQR/%1/FLWLQJ&DGGHWW&DGGHW
  $NKWDU 66 $EEDV 7 /RFNZRRG )&  µ$GYDQFHG &RPSXWDWLRQDO 7RROV IRU &HPHQW
WK
3ODQWV¶ &KDSWHU RQ 0DWKHPDWLFDO 0RGHOOLQJ LQ &HPHQW 3ODQW 3HUIRUPDQFH¶   &HPHQW ,QGXVWU\
7HFKQLFDO&RQIHUHQFH,(((,$63&$0D\0LDPL


978-1-4673-5553-7/12/$31.00 © 2013 IEEE

You might also like