Date Beef Production

Jul-19 2,360.70
Aug-19 2,373.40 a. Graphically plot the dataset.
Sep-19 2,188.60
Oct-19 2,439.30 Beef Production
Nov-19 2,296.90 3,000.00
Dec-19 2,265.10
Jan-20 2,387.60 2,500.00
Feb-20 2,130.70
Mar-20 2,410.80 2,000.00

Apr-20 1,815.40
1,500.00
May-20 1,865.10
Jun-20 2,373.60
1,000.00
Jul-20 2,421.20
500.00

0.00
May-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 A

b. Describe the pattern that exists.

The pattern in the graph given above shows changes in the production of beef
every month. There is variance in the data and the graph illustrates that after a
decrease in production, in the next month there is an increase. The pattern is like
a zigzag line because of the variety of the data.

c. Use the exponential smoothing α = 0.8 and α = 0.7 to forecast the beef productio
a= 0.80
Date Beef Prod. Forecast Error Abs. Error
Jul-19 2,360.70 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Aug-19 2,373.40 2,373.40 0 0
Sep-19 2,188.60 2225.56 -36.96 36.96
Oct-19 2,439.30 2396.552 42.75 42.748
Nov-19 2,296.90 2316.83 -19.93 19.9304
Dec-19 2,265.10 2275.446 -10.35 10.34608
Jan-20 2,387.60 2365.169 22.43 22.43078
Feb-20 2,130.70 2177.594 -46.89 46.89384
Mar-20 2,410.80 2364.159 46.64 46.64123
Apr-20 1,815.40 1925.152 -109.75 109.7518
May-20 1,865.10 1877.11 -12.01 12.01035
Jun-20 2,373.60 2274.302 99.30 99.29793
Jul-20 2,421.20 2391.82 29.38 29.37959
Aug-20 478.3641 0 0
Total
d. Which α is better based on the MSE?

MSE
ction

Jan-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20

hanges in the production of beef

the graph illustrates that after a
is an increase. The pattern is like

0.7 to forecast the beef production in August 2020.

0.80 a=0.70
Error^2 Forecast Error Abs. Error Error^2
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
0 2,373.40 0.00 0 0
1366.042 2244.04 -55.44 55.44 3073.594
1827.392 2380.722 58.58 58.578 3431.382
397.2208 2322.047 -25.15 25.1466 632.3515
107.0414 2282.184 -17.08 17.08398 291.8624
503.1401 2355.975 31.62 31.62481 1000.128
2199.033 2198.283 -67.58 67.58256 4567.402
2175.404 2347.045 63.76 63.75523 4064.73
12045.45 1974.893 -159.49 159.4934 25438.15
144.2485 1898.038 -32.94 32.93803 1084.914
9860.079 2230.931 142.67 142.6686 20354.33
863.1601 2364.119 57.08 57.08058 3258.192
0 709.2358 0 0 0
31488.21 67197.04
a= 0.80 a=0.70
2624.017 5599.753
 t Yt t-t ̅ Y_t-Y ̅ (t-t ̅) (Y_t-Y ̅) (t-t ̅)^2
Months Date Raised Cattle
1 Dec-18 2,580.20 -6.5 -208.01 1352.0464286 42.25
2 Jan-19 2,831.40 -5.5 43.19 -237.56071429 30.25
3 Feb-19 2,454.40 -4.5 -333.81 1502.1321429 20.25
4 Mar-19 2,648.70 -3.5 -139.51 488.275 12.25
5 Apr-19 2,829.40 -2.5 41.19 -102.98214286 6.25
6 May-19 2,938.90 -1.5 150.69 -226.03928571 2.25
7 Jun-19 2,808.00 -0.5 19.79 -9.8964285714 0.25
8 Jul-19 2,939.60 0.5 151.39 75.696428571 0.25
9 Aug-19 2,926.00 1.5 137.79 206.68928571 2.25
10 Sep-19 2,676.00 2.5 -112.21 -280.51785714 6.25
11 Oct-19 2,977.60 3.5 189.39 662.875 12.25
12 Nov-19 2,774.20 4.5 -14.01 -63.032142857 20.25
13 Dec-19 2,751.10 5.5 -37.11 -204.08928571 30.25
14 Jan-20 2,899.40 6.5 111.19 722.75357143 42.25
Total 105 39,034.90 3886.35 227.5
Average 7.5 2,788.21

a. Graphically plot the dataset.

Raised Cattle
3,500.00

3,000.00

2,500.00

2,000.00

1,500.00

1,000.00

500.00

0.00
Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19

b. Describe the pattern that exists.

As the figure shows, there is a horizontal pattern. The da
in the plots. There is an upward and downward moveme
changes in the given data.

c. Develop a linear trend equation.

 y=b_0+b_1 x
b_1 17.082857143
= = 2660.0857143
b_0

y= 2660.1+17.083x

d. Using the linear trend equation, how much is the foreca

y= 2660.1+17.083(15)
2916.328571
 Raised Cattle

Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Mar-20

orizontal pattern. The data varies and thus it can be seen

and downward movement of the points since there are

Chart Title
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00
 Chart Title
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
Oct-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

, how much is the forecasted number of cattle heads in February 2020.

 t Yt t-t ̅ Y_t-Y ̅ (t-t ̅) (Y_t-Y ̅) (t-t ̅)^2
Months Date Mutton Production
1 Apr-15 31.98 -4.5 -0.325 1.4625 20.25
2 May-15 31.26 -3.5 -1.045 3.6575 12.25
3 Jun-15 28.22 -2.5 -4.085 10.2125 6.25
4 Jul-15 26.89 -1.5 -5.415 8.1225 2.25
5 Aug-15 27.41 -0.5 -4.895 2.4475 0.25
6 Sep-15 30.57 0.5 -1.735 -0.8675 0.25
7 Oct-15 32.32 1.5 0.015 0.0225 2.25
8 Nov-15 37.49 2.5 5.185 12.9625 6.25
9 Dec-15 36.01 3.5 3.705 12.9675 12.25
10 Jan-16 40.9 4.5 8.595 38.6775 20.25
Total 55 323.05 89.665 82.5
Average 5.5 32.305

a. Graphically plot the dataset.

Mutton
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15

b. Describe the pattern that exists.

As the figure shows, there is a curved pattern
is a continuing increase in the data. From bein
movement.

c. Develop a linear trend equation.

y=b_0+b_1 x
b_1
= =
b_0
y=
d. If the country wanted to achieve a 15% incre
No, it is not feasible. Based on the data, the fo
not close to the target increase in the produc
 Mutton Production

May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

n that exists.
there is a curved pattern. The data varies but at the last parts there
ase in the data. From being downward it changed into a upward

nd equation.
=b_0+b_1 x Chart Title
1.08684848 50
40
26.3273333
30
26.327+1.086x 20
10
0
Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
 30
20
10
0
Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

ed to achieve a 15% increase in production for the next month, is it feasible?

. Based on the data, the forecast for next month will be 38.28 which is
et increase in the production which is 47.04.