Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Roadmap For Logistics Excellence: Need To Break The Unholy Equilibrium
Roadmap For Logistics Excellence: Need To Break The Unholy Equilibrium
This white paper attempts to provide a roadmap for India to move towards logistics
excellence. Apart from raising issues that are currently relevant, it also draws from
the issues that were raised in the previous three logistics summits and continue to be
relevant today. As a departure from the earlier summits, it was felt that some of the
issues could be presented even prior to the summit, to enable discussions and
prioritization during the summit. The paper begins with an assessment of the overall
performance of logistics in India, followed by a framework of an “unholy
equilibrium” that seeks to explain where we are and why, and then provides actor
wise action agenda as the roadmap towards logistics excellence.
1. Logistics Performance
• Product Availability
− Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) study [Business World, 2002] shows
that product availability is low, with 30% stockouts. Inter regional
comparison might show this to be a bigger problem in rural areas, leading to
regional disparities.
− The consequences are quite significant, especially in the context of medicines
and food.
− There is an overall reduction in choices, leading to lower quality of life.
1
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, graghu@iimahd.ernet.in
2
Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore, janat@iimb.ernet.in
The authors acknowledge the travel support provided by CII, which facilitated the writing of
this paper. This paper was presented at the CII Logistics Convention, Chennai, October 2003,
and AIMS International Conference on Management, Bangalore, December 2003.
• Responsiveness
− We have export disadvantages [Ananth, 1995] and higher inventories. The
average inventory level of grocery stores is 45 days of sales in India,
compared to a range of 11 to 22 days in developed countries [Business
World, 2002]. This is caused by higher lead times [Sahay, Iyer, and Gupta,
2002] due to lower speed of transport, number of check points, turnaround
time at ports [Government of India, 2003], etc. A truck in India averages 250
km per day, while in the developed countries the average is closer to 600 km
per day [Rakesh Mohan, 1996]. The average turnaround time at Indian major
ports was 5.9 days in 1998-99, compared to an international average of 2
days [Raghuram, 2001]. During 2001-02, the average turnaround in the major
ports was 4.5 days [Indian Ports Association, 2002].
− There is loss of life, injuries and loss of property in disaster management
situations (Gujarat earthquake, cyclones, railway and road accidents).
As outlined in the previous section, there are significant hidden and opportunity costs,
resulting in value foregone. In this context, an attempt at only examining the
measurable direct and indirect logistics costs (which is easier) has limited value to the
extent of assessing conscious spends on logistics. Exhibit 1 provides such an
assessment, based on CSO statistics. This analysis uses an overall figure of 26% to
arrive at inventory carrying costs as a function of inventory held. This figure is
expected to include measurable losses and support activities like warehousing. As per
this assessment, the logistics cost as a proportion of GDP has been in the range of
11.8% to 13.4% between 1995-96 and 2000-01. There has been a declining trend till
1998-99, followed by a marginal increase. Issues that remain open in this analysis are
to what extent costs related to packaging and trade services should further be
included.
Exhibit 2 gives the results of an attempted analysis by one of the authors in 1987 and
then updated in 1994. (The background to this is given in [Raghuram, 1992]). The
share of the logistics costs as per this was 10% and 12% respectively. Exhibit 3
provides a comparison with US data [CASS Information Systems, 2002], which
gives a share of 11.4% in 1987, 10.1% in 1994, and 9.5% and 8.7% respectively and
2001 and 2002.
There have been a few other attempts, and several numbers of the logistics cost share
have been floating around. In exhibit 4, the authors attempted a simple method of
arriving at the logistics cost share, driven by the total freight earnings of the Indian
Railways, a figure which is reliably available. Given the recent trends and an
understanding of the rail market share, total transportation is taken at five times the
Indian Railways freight earnings. Viewing the total transportation cost as a 45%
component, we derive at the total logistics cost. This yields a logistics cost share of
13% for 2001-02.
We have not found any paper where a rigorous methodology is explicitly discussed.
In the absence of a good and sustainable methodology, with a clear definition on the
cost components, it is difficult to use the logistics cost share for meaningful
discussion.
Comparing the estimated Indian figures and the US figures, India has higher logistics
cost share compared to USA. It can be argued that reduction in logistics costs is
desirable. However, on comparison with countries like China and South Korea
(Exhibit 5), we find that India’s logistics costs are lower, even though such countries
have better infrastructure and practices.
The poor logistics quality in India, as outlined earlier, is a result of equilibrium of the
supply and demand expectation that have evolved over time. These are as a result of
distortions due to policy measures and the inability of industry to deal with them. We
call this an “unholy equilibrium”. Every actor recognizes that they are not in the
desirable state, but is unable to do anything that would significantly change the state.
Descriptions of the states of the unholy equilibrium of some logistical activities are
provided below:
The core attributes of the equilibrium are price based (rather than service based)
competition, poor logistics service quality, low transportation cost, and no
commercial entry barriers.
These attributes are a result of the industry structure attributes of this equilibrium,
wherein there is disaggregated (truck) ownership structure and a separation
between ownership (truck owner) and marketing (trucking company).
The industry structure has been caused by various government policies including:
− Large number of check points (inter-state, octroi, etc)
− Motor Transport Workers Act (duty hours, rest requirements, etc)
− Financing incentives for small sized truck owners
− Motor Vehicles Act (driver licensing, over loading, emission norms etc)
Due to the non-existent entry barriers and price-based competition, the truck
owner often resorts to overloading of vehicles, poor truck maintenance, and
making side payments to the frontline regulatory functionaries. These actions of
the truck owners result in induced externalities of the equilibrium, wherein larger
systems bear costs of safety, pollution, and damage to roads. Such externalities
have caused the government policy statements to be strict, but resulting in
incentives for the frontline regulatory functionaries to compromise on policy
implementation and create a vested interest for status quo.
Net cause and effect of this equilibrium is decreasing sensitivity to the direct,
indirect, hidden, and opportunity cost sequence by the concerned actors, while in
reality the costs have increasing significance to the economy. The implications
are outlined in the earlier section.
However, there are exceptions. For example, the time definite express logistics
market, which addresses a niche market requiring time sensitivity. There are also
shippers who have worked with specific service providers to achieve required
service levels including customized product movement and handling (automobile
companies) at a higher direct cost.
To summarise (and as shown in figure 2), these are largely driven by the nature of the
interface between the actors (in logistics) and the consequent internal practices of the
actors.
Shippers (any firm adding value to a product by conversion) and service providers
(including infrastructural services {transportation, warehousing, third party logistics},
trade services {carrying and forwarding agents, distributors, wholesalers and
stockists, and retailers}, information and communication technology services
{hardware and software}, consultancy {fourth party logistics} and branded
Aggregator), on their own, would be limited in what they can do. Government can
play a significant role by appropriate policy changes. “Industry,” as a larger body, can
also play a proactive role. Industry would include bodies like CII, which cut across
verticals, associations of firms within a vertical like AMA (Automobile
Manufacturers Association), SEA (Seafood Exporters Association), AIMTC (ALL
India Motor Transport Congress) etc.
We discuss the roadmap for breaking the unholy equilibrium and moving towards
logistics excellence using an idea of a cost quality frontier (figure 3). The current
equilibrium is at specific frontier. Movement could take place along this frontier
through efforts of the shippers and service providers in their own domains. The
implication is that better service levels can be achieved through higher spends in
logistics and conversely lower logistics spends would result in lower service levels.
There is also a limit to the achievable service levels. But the need is to shift the
frontier itself so that we can achieve higher service levels with lower long run
logistics spend. This can be facilitated by industry ensuring better logistics practices
using standards as a means for this, and by government facilitating better
infrastructure and regulation using appropriate policy. We illustrate this by
discussing possible movement between four points in figure 3.
• Point B: Quality of logistics service would improve and logistics costs would
increase and may be comparable to China or may be even higher. This would be a
consequence of increased sensitivity to the hidden and opportunity costs
discussed earlier.
Our long run target should be to break the unholy equilibrium at point A and move to
point D. In this context we outline the actorwise action agenda.
• Government
− Review provisions of Motor Transport Workers Act and Motor Vehicles Act.
− Streamline inter-state and intra-state movements by avoiding regulatory
check points. Replacing the current sales tax structure by a value added tax
would be a great facilitator [Avittathur and Shah, 2001].
− Continue the focus on physical infrastructure development (like the current
National Highways Development Project). An integrated transport policy is
imperative.
− Have more mature frontline regulatory functionaries to ensure better
compliance with the law.
− Review incentives that create the small sized operator, since it creates
distortions in the industry structure.
− Facilitate the build-up of quality human resources infrastructure through
education and research.
• Industry
− Evolve standards and certification systems for practices in transportation,
warehousing, handling and contracts (for each vertical). (The appendix gives
a sample perspective on a few standards adopted in the US and in India for
certain exports).
− Insist on members complying with the law and standards.
− Benchmark for tracking progress on logistics maturity (by using a Capability
Maturity Model) [Singh and Shah, 2001].
− Facilitate the sharing of best practices and benchmarking against performance
indicators (including costs) by supporting research on a sustained basis.
− Invest in the build-up of quality human resources infrastructure through
education and research.
− Organize the “people” sector: small suppliers, distribution intermediaries,
transporters, and retailers.
• Shipper
− Be sensitive to long run cost and value due to better logistics services. If
commercially viable, work with service providers to insist on and improve
logistics quality. Third party logistics service providers could be an
opportunity.
− Insist on compliance with standards and the law.
− Develop appropriate performance measures, both for own performance and
the service providers’ performance, and systems to monitor them.
− Build the compliance requirements and performance measures into contracts.
• Service Provider
− Be sensitive to long run cost and value due to better logistics services.
Identify market segments that have value for quality and make appropriate
investments. Scale and scope of operations would be useful instrumentalities.
− Comply with standards and the law.
− Develop appropriate performance measures and systems to monitor them.
4. References
Ananth, Raman, 1995. Apparel Export and Indian Economy, Harvard Business
School Case.
CII, 1997, 1999, and 2001. Logistics Summit Theme Papers and Wrap-Up
Presentations, Chennai.
Indian Ports Association, 2002. Major Ports of India: A Profile 2001-2002, New
Delhi.
Indian Railways, 2003. Annual Report & Accounts 2001-02, New Delhi.
Mohan, Rakesh, 1996. The India Infrastructure Report: Policy Imperatives for
Growth and Welfare, Expert Group on the Commercialisation of Infrastructure
Projects, National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi.
Sahay, B S, Iyer, Girish S, and Gupta, Sandeep, 2002. Logistics in India & China: A
Reality Check, Industry 2.0, July 2002.
http://www.hwtc.org/PDF%20Files/Korea%20Economic%20Briefs%20July%2014.pdf
http://www.sitl-china.com/en/business.jsp
Exhibit 1
93-94 Prices
Year Inventory Inventory Railways Transport by Total Transport Administration Total
Carrying Cost* Other Means Cost Cost ** Logistics
(A) (B) (A) + (B) Cost
Rs Billion Rs Billion %
95-96 1201.27 8995.63 13.4
96-97 1206.03 9700.83 12.4
97-98 1261.01 10163.99 12.4
98-99 1282.04 10824.72 11.8
99-00 1388.93 11485.00 12.1
00-01 1464.75 11939.22 12.3
* Inventory carrying cost calculated at 26%. The [CASS Information Systems, 2002] report uses
22 % for the US economy and since India has higher financing cost by about 4%.
** Administration cost is taken as 4% of transportation and inventory cost for the year.
Nominal Values
Organized
1987 1994
Sector
Transportation 38% 45%
Inventory 28% 25%
Warehousing
20%
Packaging 30%
Losses 14%
Total Cost 10% 12%
Logistics Cost
250 800
(Rs billion)
GDP
2,500 6,700
(Rs billion)
Nominal Values
Year Values of Inventory Inventory Carrying Transportation Administration Total
All Business Carrying Cost Cost Cost Logistics
Inventory Rate Cost
$ Billion % $ Billion % $ Billion % $ Billion % $ Billion
1987 875 25.7 225 41.67 294 54.44 21 3.89 540
1988 944 26.6 251 42.76 313 53.32 23 3.92 587
1989 1005 28.1 282 44.41 329 51.81 24 3.78 635
1990 1041 27.2 283 42.94 351 53.26 25 3.79 659
1991 1030 24.9 256 40.31 355 55.91 24 3.78 635
1992 1043 22.7 237 37.26 375 58.96 24 3.77 636
1993 1076 22.2 239 36.21 396 60.00 25 3.79 660
1994 1127 23.5 265 37.22 420 58.99 27 3.79 712
1995 1211 24.9 302 39.07 441 57.05 30 3.88 773
1996 1240 24.4 303 37.83 467 58.30 31 3.87 801
1997 1280 24.5 314 36.94 503 59.18 33 3.88 850
1998 1317 24.4 321 36.31 529 59.84 34 3.85 884
1999 1381 24.1 333 36.12 554 60.09 35 3.80 922
2000 1478 25.3 374 37.29 590 58.82 39 3.89 1003
2001 1486 22.8 339 35.42 581 60.71 37 3.87 957
2002 1444 20.6 298 32.75 577 63.41 35 3.85 910
Organized
Sector
Transportation 45%
Inventory
Warehousing
55%
Packaging
Losses
Total Cost 13%
Logistics Cost
2,800
(Rs billion)
GDP
22,000
(Rs billion)
Exhibit 5
Source: http://www.sitl-china.com/en/business.jsp
http://www.hwtc.org/PDF%20Files/Korea%20Economic%20Briefs%20July%2014.pdf
Figure 1
Low
India China
Quality of
Logistics High South
USA
Service Korea
Service Manufacturing
Intensive Intensive
Nature of Economy
Figure 2
Government Policy:
• Large number of check points (inter- Front Line Regulatory
state, octroi, etc) Functionaries
• Motor Transport Workers Act (duty • Compromise on policy
hours, rest requirements, etc) implementation and incentives
• Financing incentives for small sized for status quo
truck owners
• Motor Vehicles Act (driver licensing,
over loading, emission norms etc)
Core Attributes
Industry Structure • Price based Induced Externalities
• Disaggregated competition
ownership structure • Poor logistics service • Safety
• Separation between quality • Pollution
ownership (truck • Low transportation • Damage to roads
owner) and marketing cost
(trucking company) • No commercial entry
barrier
A: Existing position
D: Optimal position with
structural changes in
infrastructure and practices
Logistics Cost front
Examples of Standards
What is required is standards evolved within India, with an ownership by the specific
industry verticals. We outline an example of the standards for air transportation of
seafood in the US, as specified by Air Transport Association of America and National
Fisheries Institute. One of the reasons we chose this example is because seafood
availability (and consequently consumption) in the Indian hinterland is significantly
lower than in the US. The primary reason is due to the poor logistics systems.
• Packaging Design
− Inside packaging
Sealed polyethylene bag of sufficient thickness to resist puncture and
retain liquids.
Double packing with single polyethylene liner placed to the outside of the
insulating material.
Adequate absorbent material or padding between sealed polyethylene
product back and inner wall of outer packaging.
Size of polyethylene bag (sufficiently large to overlap and fold closed).
− Outside packaging
Outer boxed made out of corrugated paper board or solid fiberboard.
Various plies of paperboard could be wax-saturated, impregnated, wax-
coated or treated by other water-resistant processes in certain cases.
Box and container design developed after considering the density of the
product to be transported.
− The package design must provide conditions suitable for maintaining the
product temperature (about 320 F)
− The packaged fish must reach the airport quickly
− Transporting shipments in refrigerated and insulated vehicles is useful where
packages maybe be exposed to elevated temperatures and/or when long trips
to airport are expected.
− Packages must be loaded in transport vehicles to minimize movement and
susceptibility to dropping.
− Stacks of seafood packages should be planned to avoid tilted or overhanging
boxes.
− Methods and equipment used to load and unload shipments must protect
package integrity.
Source: [Air Transport Association of America and National Fisheries Institute, 2002]