MAT 2377 – Probability and Statistics for Engineers Practice Set

Q12. Consider the following system with six components. We say that it is
functional if there exists a path of functional components from left to right.
The probability of each component functions is shown. Assume that the
components function or fail independently. What is the probability that the
system operates?

a)0.1815 b)0.8185 c) 0.6370 d)0.2046 e) none of

the preceding

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MAT 2377 – Probability and Statistics for Engineers Practice Set

Solution: let Box A consist of components 2, 3, 4, 5, Box B consist of

components 2, 3, 4, and Box C consist of components 2, 3. We will denote
the probability that Box j operates by P (j), j ∈ {A, B, C}.

We are interested in the probability P (S) that the system operates. Because
the components function or fail independently,

P (S) = P (component 1 and Box A and component 6 operate)

= P (1 operates) × P (A) × P (6 operates)
= 0.5 · P (A) · 0.5 = 0.52P (A).

There are two ways for Box A to operate: either component 5 operates
(with probability 0.5) or Box B operates:

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MAT 2377 – Probability and Statistics for Engineers Practice Set

P (A) = P (component 5 operates or Box B operates)

= P (5 operates) + P (B)
− P (component 5 operates and Box B operates)
= P (5 operates) + P (B) − P (5 operates)P (B)
= 0.5 + P (B) − 0.5P (B) = 0.5(1 + P (B)).

Thus,

P (S) = 0.52P (A) = 0.52 · 0.5(1 + P (B) = 0.53(1 + P (B)).

In order for Box B to operate, we need both Box C and component 4 to

operate, so that

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MAT 2377 – Probability and Statistics for Engineers Practice Set

P (B) = P (Box C operates and component 4 operates)

= P (4 operates)P (C) = 0.7P (C).

Thus,

P (S) = 0.53(1 + P (B)) = 0.53(1 + 0.7P (C)).

Finally, there are two ways for Box C to operate: either component
2 operates (with probability 0.7) or component 3 operates (also with
probability 0.7):

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MAT 2377 – Probability and Statistics for Engineers Practice Set

P (C) = P (component 2 operates or component 3 operates)

= P (2 operates) + P (3 operates)
− P (components 2 operates and component 3 operates)
= P (2 operates) + P (3 operates) − P (2 operates)P (3 operates)
= 0.7 + 0.7 − 0.7 · 0.7 = 0.7(2 − 0.7) = 0.7 · 1.3.

Thus,

P (S) = 0.53(1 + 0.7P (C)) = 0.53(1 + 0.7 · 0.7 · 1.3)

= 0.53(1 + 0.72 · 1.3) = 0.24046.

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MAT 2377 – Probability and Statistics for Engineers Practice Set

Q13. Three events are shown in the Venn diagram below.

Shade the region corresponding to the following events:

a)Ac b)(A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ B c)
c) (A ∩ B) ∪ C d)(B ∪ C)c
e) (A ∩ B)c ∪ C

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MAT 2377 – Probability and Statistics for Engineers Practice Set

Solution:

a) This is the set of all outcomes not in A:

b) We can rewrite (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ B c) = A ∩ (B ∪ B c) = A ∩ S = A, so
this is the set of all outcomes in A:

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MAT 2377 – Probability and Statistics for Engineers Practice Set

c) This is the set all outcomes either in C or in the intersection of A and B:

d) This is the set of all outcomes that are not in either B or C (or that are
neither in B nor in C):

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MAT 2377 – Probability and Statistics for Engineers Practice Set

e) Since C and A ∪ B are mutually exclusive (disjoint), C ⊆ (A ∩ B)c and

(A ∩ B)c ∪ C = (A ∩ B)c, so this is the set of all outcomes not in A ∩ B:

Based on course notes by Rafal Kulik 34