Maximum Credible Loss Scenario (MCLS) : Clean Science and Technology Private Limited

1
MAXIMUM CREDIBLE LOSS SCENARIO

(MCLS)
CLEAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

PRIVATE LIMITED
PLOT NO. D-26/3, MIDC KURKUMBH, DIST.-PUNE 413 802
AUGUST 2016
PREPARED BY
S A CONSUTANT
NAVI MUMBAI
2
CONTENT
AREAS PAGE NO.
I Introduction 3-5
II Damage due to incident radiation damage due to shock way 6-9
MCLS –STORAGE TANKS 10

1 Acetone 11-17
2 Dimethyl Sulphate 18-26
3 Hydrogen Peroxide 27-31
4 Phenol 32-39
5 Tertiary Butanol 40-51
6 Methanol 52-58
7 Caustic Soda Lye 59-60
8 Glyoxylic Acid 61
9 Guaiacol 62-63
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 64
Acetone 65
Dimethyl Sulphate 66
Hydrogen Peroxide 67
Phenol 68
Tertiary Butanol 69
Methanol 70
RECOMMENDATIONS 71-72
======================================
3
INTRODUCTION
4
In the month of August’ 2016, at the site of Clean Science and Technology Private Limited, the
study on Maximum Credible Loss Scenario (MCLS) has been done by S A Consultant, Navi-
Mumbai.
Following chemicals are considered for the study

Acetone
Dimethyl Sulphate
Hydrogen Peroxide
Phenol
Tertiary Butanol
Methanol
Guaiacol
Glyoxylic Acid
Caustic Soda Lye
5
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

Hazard is in fact the characteristic of system/plant/process/storage that presents potential for
an accident.
Hence, all the components of storage need to be thoroughly examined to assess their potential for
initiating or propagating an unplanned event/sequence of events, which can be termed as an
accident.
Typical schemes of predictive hazard evaluation and quantitative risk analysis suggest that
hazard identification step plays a key role.
Estimation of probability of an unexpected event and its consequences form the basis
quantification of risk in terms of damage to property, environment or personnel.
Therefore, the type, quantity, location and conditions of release of a toxic or flammable substance
has to be identified in order to estimate its damaging effects, the area involved, and the possible
precautionary measures required to be taken.
The criteria which could be employed for preliminary evaluation of a storage unit for its hazard
potential are:
• Potential for heavy leakage from pipelines/tank
• Potential for possible ignition sources
• Potential for corrosion and erosion.
Apart from the chemical characteristics of the material, the size and layout of the installation need
specific consideration in order to assess the hazard potential.
SCOPE OF WORK
Based on the discussions with the officials, it was decided to calculate the following
Calculation of affected distances, considering various scenarios. The quantitative risk
assessment would be based on the software ALOHA - Arial Locations of Hazards Atmosphere.
============================
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DAMAGE DUE TO INCIDENT

RADIATION DAMAGE DUE TO
SHOCK WAY
7
DIFFERENT FORMS OF DISPERSION IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Jet
High speed (high momentum), rapid mixing, single direction
Dense (denser than air) clouds

Dense gas “slumps” in all direction (even against the wind)
Dense clouds are shallow
Density layering reduces mixing
Buoyant (lighter than air) plume

Plume rise
BOILING LIQUID EXPANDING VAPOUR EXPLOSION (BLEVE)

The stored flammable liquid in the storage tank, if gets heat (due to fire outside or physical
explosion inside) more than its boiling point, the liquid starts boiling. Because of fast evaporation,
vapour pressure builds up inside the tank and that causes rupture of tank. The vaours coming out
of the tank forms a vapour cloud and travels further as per wind direction. If this vapour cloud
gets an ignition source on the way, it explodes (if blast effect is high) and this explosion is called
as vapour cloud explosion. For low blast effect, flash fire is possible.
VAPOUR CLOUD EXPLOSION (VCE)

If the flammable/combustible vapours/gases are coming out from the tank/vessel/container due
to heavy leakage, forms a vapour cloud and travels further as per wind direction.
If this vapour cloud gets an ignition source on the way, it explodes (if blast effect is high) and this
explosion is called as vapour cloud explosion.
For low blast effect, flash fire is possible.
THERMAL RADIATION INTENSITY VERSUS EFFECT ON PEOPLE-BS 5908:1990

Intensity (KW/M²) Effect
2.2 Threshold of pain
4.2 First degree burns
6.7 Onset of serious injury
8.3 Second degree burns
10.8 Third degree burns
15 100% Fatalities (Piloted ignition of wood)
8
DAMAGE DUE TO INCIDENT RADIATION
Intensity (KW/M²) Types of damage

0.7 Equivalent to solar radiation
1.6 No discomfort on long exposure
4.5 First degree burns
12.5 Min Energy required to pilot ignition of wood.
Melting of Plastic tubes etc.
25 Min Energy required to ignite wood at initiated
long exposure.
37.5 Sufficient to cause damage to process equipment.
62 Spontaneous ignition of wood.
DAMAGE DUE TO SHOCK WAY

Sr. No. Pressure Damage
(psig)
1 0.02 Annoying Noise
2 0.03 Occasional braking of large glass windows
3 0.04 Loud Noise (143 dB)
4 0.1 Breakage of small windows
5 0.15 Typical pressure for glass breakage
6 0.3 Some damage to house ceiling. 10% window glass broken
7 0.4 Limited minor structural damage
8 0.5 – 1.0 Large and small windows usually shattered
9 0.7 Minor damage to house structure
10 1.0 Partial demolition of houses
11 1-2 Corrugated asbestos shattered; corrugated steel or aluminium panels.
Panels blown in.
12 1.3 Steel frame of clad building slightly distorted
13 2.0 Partial collapse of walls and roof of houses
14 2-3 Concrete walls not reinforced, shattered
15 2.3 Lower limit of serious structural damage
16 2.5 50% destruction of brickwork of houses
9
Sr. No. Pressure Damage

(psig)
17 3 Heavy machines (3000lb) in industrial building suffered little damage; steel

frame building distorted and pulled away from foundations
18 3-4 Frameless, self-framing steel panel building demolished; rupture of oil
storage tanks
19 4 Cladding of light industrial buildings ruptured
20 5 Wooden utility poles snapped; tall hydraulic press (40,000lb) in building

slightly damaged
21 5-7 Nearly complete destruction of houses
22 7 Loaded train wagons overturned
23 7-8 Brick panels, 8-12” thick, not reinforced, fail by shearing of flexure
24 9 Loaded train boxcars completely demolished
25 10 Probable total destruction of buildings, heavy machines tools (7000lb)
moved and badly damaged, very heavy machine tools (12000lb) survived.
For conversion of Bar to Psi 1 Bar = 14.7 Psi
=====================================
10
MCLS
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CHEMICAL DATA
• Chemical Name: Acetone
• Underground Storage Tank, Diameter 2.2m x Height 6.0m
• Outlet Pipeline – 50mm
• Transfer Pump Flow Rate – 3.55m3/hr
• AEGL-1: 20 ppm; AEGL-2: 3200 ppm; AEGL-3: 5700 ppm
• LEL: 26000 ppm; UEL: 130000 ppm
*AEGL – Acute Exposure Guideline Level

*LEL – Lower Explosive Level
*UEL – Upper Explosive Level
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SCENARIO 1
TRANSFER PUMP DISCHARGE PIPELINE RUPTURE
(LEAKAGE @3.5M3/HR FOR 5 MINUTES)
A. ATMOSPHERIC DATA:
• Wind: 3 meters/second from E at 10 meters
SCENARIO 1A – (3 m/s, direct release)
SOURCE STRENGTH (RELEASE RATE):

• Direct Source: 3.5 cubic meters/hr
• Release Duration: 5 minutes
• Release Rate: 45.3 kilograms/min
• Total Amount Released: 226 kilograms
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : 29 meters --- [5700 ppm = AEGL-3 (60min)]
Orange : 42 meters --- [3200 ppm = AEGL-2 (60min)]
Yellow : 234 meters --- [200 ppm = AEGL-1 (60min)]
Note: Threat zone was not drawn for red and orange zones because effects of near-field
patchiness make dispersion predictions less reliable for short distances.
13
FLAMMABLE THREAT ZONE:

Red : 16 meters --- (15600 ppm = 60% LEL = Flame Pockets)
Yellow : 47 meters --- (2600 ppm = 10% LEL)
Note: Threat zone was not drawn for red and yellow zones because effects of near-field
OVERPRESSURE THREAT ZONE:

Red : LOC was never exceeded --- (8.0 psi = destruction of buildings)
Orange : LOC was never exceeded --- (3.5 psi = serious injury likely)
Yellow : LOC was never exceeded --- (1.0 psi = shatters glass)
B. ATMOSPHERIC DATA:
SCENARIO 1B – (7 m/s, direct release)

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

14


15
SCENARIO 2

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

16



TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

17


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CHEMICAL DATA
• Chemical Name: Dimethyl Sulphate
• Vertical Storage Tank, Diameter 3.6m x Length 5.03m
• AEGL-1: 0.024 ppm; AEGL-2: 0.12 ppm; AEGL-3: 1.6 ppm
• LEL: 36000 ppm; UEL: 232000 ppm

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SCENARIO 1
LEAKAGE FROM TANK OUTLET PIPELINE (20% RUPTURE)
SCENARIO 1A – (20% leakage, 3 m/s, evaporating puddle)
SOURCE STRENGTH (EVAPORATION RATE):

• Leak from short pipe or valve in vertical cylindrical tank
• Flammable chemical escaping from tank (not burning)
• Tank is 90% full
• Circular Opening Diameter: 0.01 meters
• Release Duration: Limited the duration to 1 hour
• Max Average Sustained Release Rate: 154 grams/min (averaged over a minute or more)
• Total Amount Released: 4.97 kilograms
Note: The chemical escaped as a liquid and formed an evaporating puddle. The puddle spread to
a diameter of 7.3 meters.
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : 4.6 meters --- [48 ppm = AEGL-3 (60min)]
Orange : 185 meters --- [0.12 ppm = AEGL-2 (60min)]
Yellow : 418 meters --- [0.024 ppm = AEGL-1 (60min)]
Note: Threat zone was not drawn for red zone because effects of near-field patchiness make
dispersion predictions less reliable for short distances.
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Red : less than 10 meters --- (21600 ppm = 60% LEL = Flame Pockets)
Yellow : less than 10 meters --- (3600 ppm = 10% LEL)
SCENARIO 1B – (20% leakage, 7 m/s, evaporating puddle)

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Yellow : 564 meters --- [0.024 ppm = AEGL-1 (60min)]
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SCENARIO 2
LEAKAGE FROM TANK OUTLET PIPELINE (100% FULL BORE RUPTURE)

• Max Average Sustained Release Rate: 3.33 kilograms/min (averaged over a minute or
more)
a diameter of 37 meters.
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Yellow : 2.0 kilometers --- [0.024 ppm = AEGL-1 (60min)]
23


• Circular Opening Diameter: 0.05 inches
more)
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Orange : 1.3 kilometers --- [0.12 ppm = AEGL-2 (60min)]
Yellow : 3.2 kilometers --- [0.024 ppm = AEGL-1 (60min)]
24

25
SCENARIO 3
BLEVE IN STORAGE TANK (100% MASS IN FIRE BALL)
SCENARIO 3A – (3 m/s, BLEVE)

• BLEVE of flammable liquid in horizontal cylindrical tank
• Percentage of Tank Mass in Fireball: 100%
• Fireball Diameter: 228 meters
• Burn Duration: 14 seconds
THERMAL RADIATION THREAT ZONE:

Red : 185 meters --- (10.0 kW/(sq m) = potentially lethal within 60 sec)
Orange : 290 meters --- (5.0 kW/(sq m) = 2nd degree burns within 60 sec)
Yellow : 475 meters --- (2.0 kW/(sq m) = pain within 60 sec)
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SCENARIO 3B – (7 m/s, BLEVE)

• BLEVE of flammable liquid in horizontal cylindrical tank

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CHEMICAL DATA
• Chemical Name: Hydrogen Peroxide
• Vertical Storage Tank, Diameter 5.0m x Height 6.0m
• ERPG-1: 10 ppm; ERPG-2: 50 ppm; ERPG-3: 100 ppm
*ERPG – Emergency Response Planning Guidelines

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SCENARIO 1
SCENARIO 1A – (20% leakage, 3 m/s, leakage)

• Non flammable chemical is escaping from tank
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : less than 10 meters --- (100 ppm = ERPG-3)
Orange : less than 10 meters --- (50 ppm = ERPG-2)
Yellow : 31 meters --- (10 ppm = ERPG-1)
Note: Threat zone was not drawn because effects of near-field patchiness make dispersion
predictions less reliable for short distances.
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SCENARIO 1B – (20% leakage, 7 m/s, leakage)

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : less than 10 meters --- (100 ppm = ERPG-3)
Orange : 10 meters --- (50 ppm = ERPG-2)
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SCENARIO 2

more)
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : 23 meters --- (100 ppm = ERPG-3)
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more)
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : 30 meters --- (100 ppm = ERPG-3)
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CHEMICAL DATA
• Chemical Name: Phenol
• AEGL-1(60 min): 15 ppm; AEGL-2(60 min): 23 ppm; AEGL-3(60 min): N/A
• LEL: 1700 ppm; UEL: 8600 ppm

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SCENARIO 1

more)
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : no recommended LOC --- (N/A = AEGL-3 (60 min))
Orange : 125 meters --- (23 ppm = AEGL-2 (60 min))
Yellow : 159 meters --- (15 ppm = AEGL-1 (60 min))
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No explosion : no part of the cloud is above the LEL at any time

more)
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

35


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SCENARIO 2

• Max Average Sustained Release Rate: 189 kilograms/min (averaged over a minute or
more)
• Total Amount Released: 7,179 kilograms
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Orange : 1.2 kilometers --- (23 ppm = AEGL-2 (60 min))
Yellow : 1.5 kilometers --- (15 ppm = AEGL-1 (60 min))
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• Max Average Sustained Release Rate: 275 kilograms/min (averaged over a minute or
more)
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TOXIC THREAT ZONE:



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SCENARIO 3

• BLEVE of flammable liquid in vertical cylindrical tank

Red : LOC never exceeded --- (10.0 kW/(sq m) = potentially lethal within 60 sec)
Orange : LOC never exceeded --- (5.0 kW/(sq m) = 2nd degree burns within 60 sec)
Yellow : LOC never exceeded --- (2.0 kW/(sq m) = pain within 60 sec)


Red : LOC never exceeded --- (10.0 kW/(sq m) = potentially lethal within 60 sec)
Orange : LOC never exceeded --- (5.0 kW/(sq m) = 2nd degree burns within 60 sec)
Yellow : LOC never exceeded --- (2.0 kW/(sq m) = pain within 60 sec)
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CHEMICAL DATA
• Chemical Name: Tertiary Butanol
• PAC-1: 150 ppm; PAC-2: 1300 ppm; PAC-3: 8000 ppm
• LEL: 18400 ppm; UEL: 90000 ppm
*PAC – Protective Action Criteria

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SCENARIO 1

more)
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : less than 10 meters --- (8000 ppm = PAC-3)
Orange : less than 10 meters --- (1300 ppm = PAC-2)
Yellow : 24 meters --- (150 ppm = PAC-1)

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SOURCE STRENGTH (BURN RATE):

• Leak from short pipe or valve in horizontal cylindrical tank
• Flammable chemical is burning as it escapes from tank
• Max Flame Length: 3 meters
• Burn Duration: Limited the duration to 1 hour
• Max Burn Rate: 3.6 kilograms/min
• Total Amount Burned: 212 kilograms
Note: The chemical escaped as a liquid and formed a burning puddle. The puddle spread to a
diameter of 1.3 meters.

Red : less than 10 meters --- (10.0 kW/(sq m) = potentially lethal within 60 sec)
Orange : less than 10 meters --- (5.0 kW/(sq m) = 2nd degree burns within 60 sec)
Yellow : less than 10 meters --- (2.0 kW/(sq m) = pain within 60 sec)
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more)
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : less than 10 meters --- (8000 ppm = PAC-3)
Orange : less than 10 meters --- (1300 ppm = PAC-2)


44

• Max Burn Rate: 3.6 kilograms/min
• Total Amount Burned: 212 kilograms

Red : less than 10 meters --- (10.0 kW/(sq m) = potentially lethal within 60 sec)
Orange : less than 10 meters --- (5.0 kW/(sq m) = 2nd degree burns within 60 sec)
Yellow : less than 10 meters --- (2.0 kW/(sq m) = pain within 60 sec)
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SCENARIO 2

more)
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : 16 meters --- (8000 ppm = PAC-3)
Orange : 20 meters --- (1300 ppm = PAC-2)
46



• Max Burn Rate: 90 kilograms/min
• Total Amount Burned: 5,293 kilograms

47

more)
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : 14 meters --- (8000 ppm = PAC-3)
Orange : 21 meters --- (1300 ppm = PAC-2)
48



• Max Burn Rate: 90 kilograms/min
• Total Amount Burned: 5,293 kilograms
49

50
SCENARIO 3


51


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CHEMICAL DATA
• Chemical Name: Methanol
• AEGL-1(60 min): 530 ppm; AEGL-2(60 min): 2100 ppm; AEGL-3(60 min): 7200 ppm
• LEL: 71800 ppm; UEL: 365000 ppm

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SCENARIO 1

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

Red : 64 meters --- (7200 ppm = AEGL-3 (60 min))
54



55
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:



56
SCENARIO 2

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

57



58
TOXIC THREAT ZONE:



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CHEMICAL DATA
• Chemical Name: Caustic Soda Lye
General Description
A colorless liquid. Denser than water. Contact may severely irritate skin, eyes, and mucous
membranes. Toxic by ingestion. Corrosive to metals and tissue.
Air & Water Reactions

Slowly absorbs carbon dioxide from the air to give solid products as crusts or precipitates. Water
soluble. Dilution with water liberates heat, possibly enough to cause local boiling and spattering.
Fire Hazard
Non-combustible, substance itself does not burn but may decompose upon heating to produce
corrosive and/or toxic fumes. Some are oxidizers and may ignite combustibles (wood, paper, oil,
clothing, etc.). Contact with metals may evolve flammable hydrogen gas. Containers may explode
when heated.
Health Hazard
Causes severe burns of eyes, skin, and mucous membranes.
Isolation and Evacuation

As an immediate precautionary measure, isolate spill or leak area in all directions for at least 50
meters (150 feet) for liquids and at least 25 meters (75 feet) for solids.
SPILL: Increase, in the downwind direction, as necessary, the isolation distance shown above.
FIRE: If tank, rail car or tank truck is involved in a fire, ISOLATE for 800 meters in all directions;
also, consider initial evacuation for 800 meters in all directions.
Firefighting
SMALL FIRE: Dry chemical, CO2 or water spray.
LARGE FIRE: Dry chemical, CO2, alcohol-resistant foam or water spray. Move containers from fire
area if you can do it without risk. Dike fire-control water for later disposal; do not scatter the
material.
FIRE INVOLVING TANKS OR CAR/TRAILER LOADS: Fight fire from maximum distance or use
unmanned hose holders or monitor nozzles. Do not get water inside containers. Cool containers
60
with flooding quantities of water until well after fire is out. Withdraw immediately in case of rising
sound from venting safety devices or discoloration of tank. ALWAYS stay away from tanks
engulfed in fire.
Spills and Leakage

ELIMINATE all ignition sources (no smoking, flares, sparks or flames in immediate area). Do not
touch damaged containers or spilled material unless wearing appropriate protective clothing.
Stop leak if you can do it without risk. Prevent entry into waterways, sewers, basements or
confined areas. Absorb or cover with dry earth, sand or other non-combustible material and
transfer to containers. DO NOT GET WATER INSIDE CONTAINERS.
Damage distances are not calculated for Caustic Soda Lye. Leak and spill control should be
carried out as per the M.S.D.S.
61
CHEMICAL DATA
• Chemical Name: Glyoxylic Acid
General Description
Supplied as a 50% aqueous solution. Colorless to straw yellow.

No rapid reaction with air No rapid reaction with water.
Fire Hazard
Combustible material: may burn but does not ignite readily. When heated, vapors may form
explosive mixtures with air: indoors, outdoors and sewers explosion hazards. Those substances
designated with a (P) may polymerize explosively when heated or involved in a fire. Contact with
metals may evolve flammable hydrogen gas. Containers may explode when heated. Runoff may
pollute waterways. Substance may be transported in a molten form.
Health Hazard
Contact will cause severe eye and skin burns. Vapor exposure may cause eye and skin irritation.
Isolation and Evacuation

As an immediate precautionary measure, isolate spill or leak area in all directions for at least 50
meters (150 feet) for liquids and at least 25 meters (75 feet) for solids.
SPILL: Increase, in the downwind direction, as necessary, the isolation distance shown above.
FIRE: If tank, rail car or tank truck is involved in a fire, ISOLATE for 800 meters in all directions;
also, consider initial evacuation for 800 meters in all directions.
Firefighting
Fire Extinguishing Agents Not to Be Used: Avoid direct contact between water and acid.
Spills and Leakage

Neutralizing Agents for Acids and Caustics: Lime.
Damage distances are not calculated for Glyoxylic Acid. Leak and spill control should be carried
out as per the M.S.D.S.
62
CHEMICAL DATA
• Chemical Name: Guaiacol

General Description
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION: Colorless to amber crystals or liquid. Density (of solid) 1.129 g / cm3.
Solidifies at 28°C (82.4°F), but may remain liquid for a long time even at a much lower
temperature. Slightly water soluble. Soluble in aqueous sodium hydroxide. Used medicinally as
an expectorant. Used, because of its anti-oxidant properties, as an anti-skinning agent for paints.

Sensitive to air and light (darkens). Slightly water soluble.
Fire Hazard
This chemical is combustible.
Health Hazard
SYMPTOMS: Symptoms of exposure to this compound may include irritation of the skin and eyes,
muscular weakness, cardiovascular collapse and paralysis of the vasomotor centers. Ingestion
produces burning in the mouth and throat, gastrointestinal distress, tremors and collapse.
ACUTE/CHRONIC HAZARDS: This compound is an irritant and is easily absorbed through the
skin. When heated to decomposition it emits toxic fumes.
Firefighting
Fires involving this material should be controlled using a dry chemical, carbon dioxide or Halon
extinguisher.
Spills and Leakage

Should a spill occur while you are handling this chemical, FIRST REMOVE ALL SOURCES OF
IGNITION, then you should dampen the solid spill material with ethanol and transfer the
dampened material to a suitable container. Use absorbent paper dampened with ethanol to pick
up any remaining material. Seal the absorbent paper, and any of your clothes, which may be
contaminated, in a vapor-tight plastic bag for eventual disposal. Solvent wash all contaminated
surfaces with ethanol followed by washing with a soap and water solution. Do not reenter the
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contaminated area until the Safety Officer (or other responsible person) has verified that the area
has been properly cleaned.
Damage distances are not calculated for Guaiacol. Leak and spill control should be carried out as
per the M.S.D.S.
===================================
64
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
OF
MCLS SCENARIOS
65
ACETONE
SCENARIO 1 & 2: TRANSFER PUMP DISCHARGE PIPELINE RUPTURE

Red Orange Yellow
Threat Wind
Scenario Duration Threat Threat Threat
Modeled Velocity
Zone Zone Zone
Direct Toxic Threat 3 m/s 5 mins 29 m 42 m 234 m
Release Zone
10 mins 29 m 42 m 234 m
7 m/s 5 mins 27 m 40 m 195 m
10 mins 27 m 40 m 195 m
Flammable 3 m/s 5 mins 16 m N/A 47 m

Threat Zone 10 mins 16 m N/A 47 m
7 m/s 5 mins 13 m N/A 45 m
10 mins 13 m N/A 45 m
Overpressure 3 m/s 5 mins LOC not LOC not LOC not

Threat Zone exceeded exceeded exceeded
10 mins LOC not LOC not LOC not
exceeded exceeded exceeded
7 m/s 5 mins LOC not LOC not LOC not
10 mins LOC not LOC not LOC not
===================================
66
DIMETHYL SULPHATE
SCENARIO 1 & 2: LEAKAGE FROM TANK OUTLET PIPELINE

Red Orange Yellow
Threat Wind
Scenario Quantity Threat Threat Threat
Modeled Velocity
Zone Zone Zone
Evaporating Toxic Threat 3 m/s 20% 4.6 m 185 m 418 m
Puddle Zone 100% 222 m 875 m 2.0 km
7 m/s 20% 63 m 244 m 564 m
100% 298 m 1.3 km 3.2 km
Flammable 3 m/s 20% <10 m N/A <10 m
Threat Zone 100% 19 m N/A 18 m
7 m/s 20% <10 m N/A <10 m
100% 18 m N/A 18 m
SCENARIO 3: BLEVE OF STORAGE TANK

Red
Threat Wind Orange Yellow
Scenario Threat
Modeled Velocity Threat Zone Threat Zone
Zone
Fire Ball Thermal 3 m/s 185 m 290 m 475 m
Radiation
Threat Zone 7 m/s 185 m 290 m 475 m
===================================
67
HYDROGEN PEROXIDE

Red Orange Yellow
Threat Wind
Modeled Velocity
Zone Zone Zone
Evaporating Toxic Threat 3 m/s 20% <10 m <10 m 31 m
Puddle Zone 100% 23 m 34 m 140 m
7 m/s 20% <10 m 10 m 40 m
100% 30 m 45 m 185 m
===================================
68
PHENOL

Red Orange Yellow
Threat Wind
Modeled Velocity
Zone Zone Zone
Evaporating Toxic Threat 3 m/s 20% N/A 125 m 159 m
Puddle Zone 100% N/A 1.2 km 1.5 km
7 m/s 20% N/A 124 m 157 m
100% N/A 634 m 809 m
Flammable 3 m/s 20% 13 m N/A 31 m
7 m/s 20% 12 m N/A 33 m
100% 59 m N/A 158 m
Overpressure 3 m/s 20% LOC was never exceeded
Threat Zone 100% LOC was never exceeded
7 m/s 20% LOC was never exceeded
100% LOC was never exceeded

Red
Scenario Threat
Zone
Fire Ball Thermal 3 m/s LOC was never exceeded
Radiation
Threat Zone 7 m/s LOC was never exceeded
===================================
69
TERTIARY BUTANOL

Red Orange Yellow
Threat Wind
Modeled Velocity
Zone Zone Zone
Evaporating Toxic Threat 3 m/s 20% <10 m <10 m 24 m
Puddle Zone 100% 16 m 20 m 115 m
7 m/s 20% <10 m <10 m 23 m
100% 14 m 21 m 110 m
Flammable 3 m/s 20% <10 m N/A <10 m
7 m/s 20% <10 m N/A <10 m
100% 14 m N/A 25 m
Overpressure 3 m/s 20% LOC was never exceeded
Threat Zone 100% LOC was never exceeded
7 m/s 20% LOC was never exceeded
100% LOC was never exceeded
Burning Thermal 3 m/s 20% <10 m <10 m <10 m
Chemical Radiation 100% 10 m 15 m 24 m
Threat Zone 7 m/s 20% <10 m <10 m <10 m
100% 14 m 18 m 24 m

Red
Scenario Threat
Zone
Fire Ball Thermal 3 m/s 305 m 433 m 677 m
Radiation
Threat Zone 7 m/s 305 m 433 m 677 m
===================================
70
METHANOL
SCENARIO 1 & 2: TRANSFER PUMP DISCHARGE PIPELINE RUPTURE

Red Orange Yellow
Threat Wind
Modeled Velocity
Zone Zone Zone
Evaporating Toxic Threat 3 m/s 5 mins 64 m 145 m 363 m
Puddle Zone 10 mins 64 m 145 m 363 m
7 m/s 5 mins 40 m 78 m 163 m
10 mins 40 m 78 m 163 m
Flammable 3 m/s 5 mins 19 m N/A 64 m
Threat Zone 10 mins 19 m N/A 64 m
7 m/s 5 mins 11 m N/A 45 m
10 mins 11 m N/A 45 m
Overpressure 3 m/s 5 mins LOC was never exceeded
Threat Zone 10 mins LOC was never exceeded
7 m/s 5 mins LOC was never exceeded
10 mins LOC was never exceeded
==================================
71
RECOMMENDATIONS
72
Detection
Early detection system should be provided for leakage scenarios.
The detection system should be a combination of audio and visual indications.
Detectors should be interlocked with auto shut-off systems.
Personnel should be trained in using and understanding the indications.
Personnel manning the detection system should be trained in actions to be followed upon
detection.
Isolation
Wherever auto shut-off fails or is not provided, action plan to disconnect/stop the further
leakage of material should be available.
The required tools for isolating the leakage point should be readily available.
The required personal protection should be available for taking these emergency actions.
Personnel should be trained in using the personal protection systems.
Spill Control
Appropriate apparatus should be available for respective chemicals.
Methods of use of apparatus for spill control should be written down and personnel should
be trained in the same.
Procedure for disposal of contaminated apparatus should be prepared and followed.
Personnel should be trained in safe application of spill control apparatus and disposal of the
same.
Evacuation
Evacuation plan should be prepared based upon the dispersion models.
Evacuation in the location of source of leakage and the further affected distances should be
handled separately.
Security or other emergency staff responsible for the evacuation should be adequately
trained.
PERIODIC MOCK DRILLS SHOULD BE CONDUCTED TO ENSURE THE PREPAREDNESS FOR THE
ABOVE ACTIONS.
==================================

Maximum Credible Loss Scenario (MCLS) : Clean Science and Technology Private Limited

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1

MAXIMUM CREDIBLE LOSS SCENARIO

CLEAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

AREAS PAGE NO.

MCLS –STORAGE TANKS 10

Following chemicals are considered for the study

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

DAMAGE DUE TO INCIDENT

DIFFERENT FORMS OF DISPERSION IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Dense (denser than air) clouds

Buoyant (lighter than air) plume

BOILING LIQUID EXPANDING VAPOUR EXPLOSION (BLEVE)

VAPOUR CLOUD EXPLOSION (VCE)

THERMAL RADIATION INTENSITY VERSUS EFFECT ON PEOPLE-BS 5908:1990

DAMAGE DUE TO INCIDENT RADIATION

Intensity (KW/M²) Types of damage

DAMAGE DUE TO SHOCK WAY

Sr. No. Pressure Damage

17 3 Heavy machines (3000lb) in industrial building suffered little damage; steel

20 5 Wooden utility poles snapped; tall hydraulic press (40,000lb) in building

*AEGL – Acute Exposure Guideline Level

SCENARIO 1A – (3 m/s, direct release)

SOURCE STRENGTH (RELEASE RATE):

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

FLAMMABLE THREAT ZONE:

OVERPRESSURE THREAT ZONE:

SCENARIO 1B – (7 m/s, direct release)

SOURCE STRENGTH (RELEASE RATE):

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

FLAMMABLE THREAT ZONE:

OVERPRESSURE THREAT ZONE:

SCENARIO 2A – (3 m/s, direct release)

SOURCE STRENGTH (RELEASE RATE):

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

FLAMMABLE THREAT ZONE:

OVERPRESSURE THREAT ZONE:

SCENARIO 2B – (7 m/s, direct release)

SOURCE STRENGTH (RELEASE RATE):

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

FLAMMABLE THREAT ZONE:

OVERPRESSURE THREAT ZONE:

*AEGL – Acute Exposure Guideline Level

SCENARIO 1A – (20% leakage, 3 m/s, evaporating puddle)

SOURCE STRENGTH (EVAPORATION RATE):

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

FLAMMABLE THREAT ZONE:

SCENARIO 1B – (20% leakage, 7 m/s, evaporating puddle)

SOURCE STRENGTH (EVAPORATION RATE):

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

FLAMMABLE THREAT ZONE:

SCENARIO 2A – (100% leakage, 3 m/s, evaporating puddle)

SOURCE STRENGTH (EVAPORATION RATE):

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

FLAMMABLE THREAT ZONE:

SCENARIO 2B – (100% leakage, 7 m/s, evaporating puddle)

SOURCE STRENGTH (EVAPORATION RATE):

TOXIC THREAT ZONE:

FLAMMABLE THREAT ZONE:

SCENARIO 3A – (3 m/s, BLEVE)

SOURCE STRENGTH (EVAPORATION RATE):

THERMAL RADIATION THREAT ZONE:

SCENARIO 3B – (7 m/s, BLEVE)