RETHINKING EDUCATION

INNOVATIONS, POLICY, & PRACTICE

Aditi Bhutoria
Email: abhutoria@iimcal.ac.in
Twitter: @AditiBhutoria
LinkedIn: Aditi K. Bhutoria

Indian Institute of Management Calcutta

Term IV 2020
Last session

How Hanushek et al. brought sophisticated

empirical analysis to the Quantity-Quality Debate

Today…

Data-driven decision-making in economic and

education policy and practice
RETHINKING EDUCATION
MEGA TRENDS & GLOBAL EVIDENCE
Aditi Bhutoria
Email: abhutoria@iimcal.ac.in
Twitter: @AditiBhutoria
LinkedIn: Aditi K. Bhutoria

Indian Institute of Management Calcutta

Term IV 2020
 Trends Shaping Education 2019

Five thematic chapters:

1 2 3 4 5

Shifting global Living longer,

Public matters Security Modern cultures
gravity living better

“Systems” “Individuals”

4
MEGA TREND 1:
SHIFTING GLOBAL GRAVITY
 SHIFTING GLOBAL GRAVITY: A VISUALOVERVIEW
The global balance of economic power is shifting, with giant economies emerging, Chapter highlights
notably China and India. Globalisation facilitates the emergence of transnational
networks and the accompanying economic growth has lifted many people out of
poverty, resulting in an expansion of the global middle class. Human mobility across The e-waste problem Shift in economic power
borders has increased with more affordable transport and communications. Yet
globalisation also brings new challenges: growing consumption, unsustainable use of More than 44million China quadrupled its share of world GDP between
1990 and 2016, while the United States’ share dropped
resources, and a sense for some of being left behind. The challenge for countries lies from 21% to15%
metric tonnes ofe-waste
in the ability to enhance joint efforts to counterbalance negative trends such as the were generated in2016.
widening gap between rich and poor. Equal to the weight of Share of world GDP
4400 EiffelTowers 25%
Only 20% of this
was recycled 20%
GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEING MODERN CULTURES

Mobility of money
15%
Personal remittances becamean
Wealth & Inequality important source of income for
countries
10%
Share of GDP

2017 Lower-middle income € 5%

Artificial Low income
Shifting global
Intelligence
wealth
Research & Global 0%
1980
Development R&D Growing mobility 1990 2016
spending middle class

0% 2% 4% 6% USA China

Migration New frontiers of innovation

E-waste Air transport More mobility in a global world
Artificial intelligence patents
increased nearly 1000% in 15 years Air transport of passengers worldwide increased fromjust
over 300m in 1970 to almost 3.7 billion in 2016
Sustainable Global value 20000
chains
consumption Global markets
Passengers 3.7 bn
Number of patents

10000

0.3 bn

0
1991 2015 1970 2015
Ready for take off?

TRENDS SHAPING EDUCATION 2019 © OECD 2019

Shifting global gravity
The global middle class on the rise
Estimates of the size of the global middle class, percentage of the world population (left axis) and headcount
(right axis), 1950-2030
World middle class share of world population World middle class World population
100 9
90 8
% of world population

80 7

Headcount (billions)
70 6
60 5
50 4
40
3
30
2
20
1
10
0
0
1969

1999

2023
2011

2029
1951

1963

1993

2005
1975

1987

2017
1957

1981

Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en

Shifting global gravity
More people on the move
Estimates of international migrant stock by region of destination, 1990-2017

300

250
Millions of people

200

150

100

50

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania

Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en

Figure 1.5
Shifting global gravity
The growth of AI technologies
Number of patents in artificial intelligence technologies, 1991-2015

20 000
18 000

16 000
Number of patents

14 000

12 000

10 000
8 000

6 000
4 000

2 000

0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en

Figure 1.10
MEGA TREND 2:
SECURITY IN A RISKY WORLD
 SECURITY IN A RISKY WORLD: A VISUAL OVERVIEW
On average OECD countries are more secure than they were in the past. They have Chapter highlights
benefited from less armed conflict on their soil, growing affluence, safer roads and
more effective medicines and healthcare. However, in an increasingly borderless and
connected world, we are now facing ever more complex security challenges. Climate Declining savings Changing climate
change; disease and the risk of rapidly spreading pandemics; networks of terrorism
14%
The number of worldwide natural disasters has been
1970 increasing since the1960s
and cyber threats all pose serious risks for society. Threats can also be very
personal: Many individuals are experiencing financial and work-related insecurity
and are concerned about the safety of their families and communities. Education can disposable household
income put intosavings
play a role in helping understand, prevent and mitigate security risks. It can also help 500

build resilience and better prepare citizens for times of crisis.

GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEING MODERN CULTURES 5% 2016 400

Number of disasters
National security
Probability of living in a country in an 300
Health armed external conflict decreased
dramatically since WW II
50%
200
40%

Job security
30%
Antibiotic
resistance 20% 100
10%
Economic Household debt Road safety Cyber
and savings
0%
1900 2000 0
1901 2017
Health security
Natural Security
disasters experts Bacteria increasingly resistant to Cyber risks
War and conflict
antibiotics Data breaches due to poor security, accidents or hacks

13% 2013
have surged

Nuclear Combined records lost

Environmental testing National 8

Billion breaches
6

4
2

1%
0
2000 2004 2018

TRENDS SHAPING EDUCATION 2019 © OECD 2019

Security in a risky world
The rise of superbugs
Average proportion of infections caused by bacteria resistant to antimicrobial treatment for eight antibiotic-
bacterium combinations in 2005, 2015 and 2030
2005 2015 2030
60
50
% of infections

40
30
20
10
0

Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en

Security in a risky world
Too big for your (data) breaches?
World’s biggest data breaches by method of leak (billions of records lost), 2004-2018

accidentally published hacked inside job lost / stolen device or media poor security
4.5
4
Records lost (billions)

3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

2012

2013

2018
2007

2015
2006

2009

2010
2004

2017
2016
2014
2011
2008
2005

Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en

Security in a risky world
Eye of the storm: increasing natural disasters worldwide
Number of recorded events, 1900-2018

600

500
Number of events

400

300

200

100

0
1965

1995

2005
1920

1960

1990

2000
1930
1905

1980

2015
1900

1915

2010
1910

1955
1950

1975
1970
1945
1940
1925

1935

1985
Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
Figure 3.7
Security in a risky world
Household savings and debt
Household savings (% of disposable income, left axis) and household debt (% of disposable income, right axis),
OECD average, 1970-2016
Savings (left axis) Debt (right axis)
18 160
Savings as % of disposable income

Debt as % of disposable income

16 140
14
120
12
100
10
80
8
60
6
4 40

2 20
0 0

1998

2008
1990

2000
1970

1978

1980

1996

2006

2010
1994

2004
1986

2016
2014
1976

1984
1974

1992

2002
1982

2012
1972

1988

Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en

Figure 3.9
MEGA TREND 3:
MODERN CULTURES
 MODERN CULTURES: A VISUAL OVERVIEW
We seem to live in a more individualistic world, with a declining sense of belonging Chapter highlights
to the traditional reference points of community, church or workplace. At the same
time, the notion of a “network society” suggests that belonging is changing not
disappearing. Modern cultures looks at evolving patterns of work in the digital Virtual becoming reality Green mobility
world, and the emergence of the gig economy and what this means for consumption Numberof Airbnb hosted nights Increasingly choosing clean energy transportation
and ownership. It explores changing families and gender roles, with fewer traditional soared worldwide
families and more active parenting from fathers. Education plays a crucial role in 260
equipping coming generations with the necessary skills, knowledge and sentiment to 2010 thousand
Number of electric cars
thrive, shape society and preserve their livelihood.
3.5
56.6

Millions
2017 million 3
GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEING MODERN CULTURES

Flexible work 2.5

Participation on freelanceplatforms
The connected economy surged, granting flexibility butoften 2
insecurity as well

1.5
50

Millions
40
Electric 1
vehicles Gig economy 30

Ethical Gender 20
0.5
consumption Meat Gender in work 10
production equity
0
0
2006 2011 2016
2013 2017
Labour force Modern families
participation
More active fathers
40%
Shareconomy Youth empowerment

75% of OECD countries granted paid father-specific leave

in 2016, up from just 10% in 1975
of children in OECD countries were
Virtual Newfamily
structures born out of wedlock in 2016, up from
becoming reality Modern families
just over 7% in 1970 Number of countries
30

20

10

0
1975 2015

TRENDS SHAPING EDUCATION 2019 © OECD 2019

Modern cultures
Increasing Access to Mobile Broadband
Number of mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, OECD average, 2009-2017

120
Number of subscriptions

100

80

60

40

20

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en

Modern cultures
Freeing up work? Increase in people participating in part-time online jobs
Combined registered users of Upwork and Freelancer, 2005-2016

50
45
40
Million users

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en

Modern cultures
Increase in mass self-communication and creative expression
Individuals using the Internet (last 3 months) for uploading self-created content on sharing websites, 2008 and
2017
2008 2017
70

60
% of internet users

50

40

30

20

10

0
16-24 25-55 55-74
Age group

Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en

Figure 5.7
three or more generations in one house; families with unmarried or remarried parents;
families with half-siblings and step-siblings; and families headed by same-sex and
interracial couples are all part of our modern culture. Education plays an important role

Modern cultures
in supporting modern and traditional families and ensuring that learning needs are met
for all.
Out of Wedlock – changing
Figure 5.5. Out ofstructure
wedlock, butofnot
families
out of the ordinary
Proportion of all births where mother's marital status at time of birth is other than married, 1970 and 2016

100
90
1995 1970 2016
80
70
% of births

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Mexico

Denmark
Portugal

Spain
Hungary
New Zealand

Latvia

Lithuania
Czech Republic

Finland

Germany
Australia
Slovak Republic
United States
France

Canada
Slovenia

Sweden

OECD average

Turkey
Japan
Greece
Iceland

Switzerland
Ireland
Austria
United Kingdom
Norway

Italy

Israel
Chile

Estonia

Poland

Korea
Belgium

Luxembourg
Netherlands

Note: Where the data for countries were not consistently available in the same years, figures from the closest
year are used. Respective countries are labelled with a letter (see StatLink for full information).
Source: OECD (2018), “Share of births outside of marriage” (indicator), OECD Family Database,
Group Exercise
Exercise on Global Mega Trends and linkages with Education

1. 9 Breakout Rooms (BR) of 4-5 people each;

2. 15 mins exercise;

3. Choose a moderator – approx. 5 mins per trend

Group Exercise
Discuss each of the 3 MEGA TRENDS

For each trend, identify and discuss 2-3 way in which the mega-trend/sub-
trends are related to the education sector (Remember: Trend à Education
and Education à Trend)

Suggest ways in which Indian education policy and practice can be

changed/updated to help to address/alleviate issues related to these
trends or enhance the benefits of the same (Example: These could be
supply/government-focused education initiatives like government building
infrastructure or demand/consumer-focused initiatives like education
changing consumption habits)
Thank You!