Mythbusters Iii: The Final Reckoning: Name: Company: Tim Stronge & Alan Mauldin Telegeography

Mythbusters III:
The Final Reckoning
Name: Tim Stronge & Alan Mauldin

Company: TeleGeography
Alan and Tim do research things at TeleGeography.
They are trained mythbusters. Do NOT attempt to test

any of these dangerous myths at home.
Email: amauldin@telegeography.com
Email: tstronge@telegeography.com
Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 2

What is Mythbusting?

Industry Myths to be Tested
•  70 percent of the world’s internet traffic flows through Northern Virginia

•  The industry’s current practices will be enough to accommodate future
capacity requirements
•  New submarine cables are avoiding landing in the U.K. because of the
Brexit vote in 2016
•  Content providers are the biggest investors in new submarine cables
•  Eventually bandwidth prices will be the same on all routes
•  New satellites will end the dominance of submarine cables
•  Fiber pairs will become the new “coin of the realm”
•  Humans’ 5 senses provide the ultimate ceiling on per-user bandwidth

Northern Virginia Myth
•  The Myth: 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic flows through

Northern Virginia
•  Conclusion: ???
•  Status:

This one has been around for a while





Washington D.C. Metro Area as % of U.S. …
(We need
to be in this
area)
Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 11

U.S. as % of World…

Connections to U.S. over time: not much change

•  The Myth: 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic flows through

Northern Virginia
•  Conclusion: Not even close
•  Status:

Sustainable Capacity Growth Myth
•  The Myth: The industry’s current practices will be enough to

accommodate future capacity requirements
•  Status:

How much capacity do we need across the Atlantic?

That seems like an awful lot … but it’s a big slowdown

Let’s make some generous assumptions
•  Demand: content providers will curtail their tremendous growth by early/

mid 2020s
•  Supply: 640 Tbps cables by 2023
-  32 FP x 20 Tbps, maybe?
•  Supply: 1 Pbps systems by 2025
-  50 FP x 20 Tbps, maybe?

Trans-Atlantic: planned and existing cables

Trans-Atlantic: new cables required

Okay, so what are our options?
•  Spend more on cables

•  Build more data centers
•  Hope for a breakthrough on submarine cable tech or content provider
network optimization
•  Allow user experience to degrade

Let’s keep this in perspective



•  The Myth: The industry’s current practices will be enough to

accommodate future capacity requirements
•  Conclusion: No. Something’s gotta give.
•  Status:

Brexit Myth
•  The Myth: new cables are avoiding landing in the U.K. because of the
Brexit vote in 2016.
•  Status:

Brexit Myth
Is the sun setting on the British empire?
Existing and Planned Trans-Atlantic Cable Spans by RFS

Brexit Myth
Warning signs?
Let’s examine changes since the Brexit

vote to some data sets for the U.K:
•  International internet bandwidth
•  Internet exchange traffic
•  Data center space
•  Non-trans-Atlantic cable investment

Brexit Myth
1. International internet bandwidth
International Internet Bandwidth, 2015-2018
Germany
Uh-oh, France takes the lead!
France
U.K.
Netherlands
Sweden
Italy

Brexit Myth
2. Internet exchange traffic
London Internet Exchange (LINX) Traffic Since Brexit Vote
Traffic
continues to
rise
Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: LINX Slide 30

Brexit Myth
3. Data center space
Gross Retail Colocation Floor Space (m.sq.ft.)
London
Frankfurt
Amsterdam
Paris
Dublin

Brexit Myth
4. Non-trans-Atlantic cable investment
Two New U.K.-Connected Cables Entering Service in 2019
North Sea Connect CeltixConnect-2

Brexit Myth
Why have recent trans-Atlantic cables avoided the U.K.?
•  Enhanced route diversity was needed

-  AEConnect-1 -> first direct Ireland-USA cable
-  MAREA -> first Spain-USA cable since Columbus-III (1999)
-  Havfrue/AEC-2 -> first Denmark-USA cable since TAT-14 (2001)
-  Dunant -> first France-USA cable since Apollo (2003)

Brexit Myth
Content Provider Data Center Locations

Brexit Myth
•  Planning cycles are long

-  Plans for AEConnect-1, MAREA, and perhaps others were well underway
before the Brexit vote
•  The U.K. did get a new trans-Atlantic cable recently

-  GTT Express – September 2015

Brexit Myth
•  The Myth: new cables are avoiding landing in the U.K. because of the
Brexit vote in 2016.
•  Conclusion: no evidence Brexit has played a role.
•  Status:

Content Provider Investment Myth
•  The Myth: content providers are the biggest investors in new submarine
cables.
•  Status:


Investment in new cables is soaring
New Cable Investment Based on RFS

..content providers’ share is modest
New Cable Investment Based on RFS
Content providers
Traditional Carriers +
New Carriers’
Carriers (e.g. Aqua
Comms, Hawaiki,
RTI, Seaborn
Networks

...but where are content providers investing?

Only a majority in the Atlantic
Content Providers’ Share of Investment in New Cables by Route

Beyond new cables
Share of Used Bandwidth by Category, 2018
•  Content providers account for a
large share of demand on many
routes
•  So they are investing far more
than just in new builds:
-  SLTE on pairs they own/lease
-  Purchases of fiber pairs,
spectrum and managed
bandwidth
•  No public data exists for these
investments

•  The Myth: content providers are the biggest investors in new submarine
cables.
•  Conclusion: not for new cable construction yet, but are likely the largest
when factoring in SLTE and other capacity purchases.
•  Status:

Price Parity Myth
•  The Myth: eventually bandwidth prices will be the same on all routes.
•  Status:

Price Parity Myth
Price compression is real
10 Gbps Wavelength Price Erosion

Price Parity Myth
Price compression is real
10 Gbps Wavelength Price Multiples over London-New York, 2013 vs 2018

Price Parity Myth
Why do prices vary across routes?
•  Length – longer routes require more fiber and repeaters, use more
power, and have higher maintenance costs
•  Topology – not all cables serving a route are designed the same –
different landings, routing, and availability of express fiber pairs.
•  Demand – higher capacity cables have lower unit costs for O&M and
capacity upgrades, enabling lower prices.
•  Competition – more cables on a route should lead to lower prices.

Price Parity Myth
Changes in length
•  Lengths are
changing, but not
becoming similar
and not very
quickly.
Source: USGS

Price Parity Myth
Changes in topology
Pacific Light Cable Network (PLCN)

•  More direct routes are
increasingly feasible, which will
help to narrow prices.
Hong Kong-Americas (HKA) Bay to Bay Express (BtoBE)

Price Parity Myth
Changes in demand
Lit Capacity, 2013 vs. 2018
•  Demand is
increasing,
lowering unit
costs.
•  Demand per cable
would need to be
similar across
routes for unit
costs to align.

Price Parity Myth
Changes in competition
Number of U.S.-Brazil Cables versus 10 Gbps Lease Prices
80% increase in
number of cables
88%
decrease in
price

Price Parity Myth
Is parity possible?
•  Length – can’t equalize distances across routes.
•  Topology – can’t link every city pair directly.
•  Demand – cables will never have comparable volumes across all routes.
•  Competition – possible to boost competition on some routes still.

Price Parity Myth
•  The Myth: eventually bandwidth prices will be the same on all routes.
•  Conclusion: prices will continue to narrow, but global price parity is not
possible.
•  Status:

Satellite Myth
•  The Myth: new satellites will end the dominance of submarine cables.
•  Status:

Satellite Myth
From sea to space?

Satellite Myth
Space man
•  “We’re really talking about

something which is, in the long
term, like rebuilding the Internet
in space. The goal will be to have
the majority of long distance
Internet traffic to go over this
network” – Elon Musk

Satellite Myth
So what is “half of long-distance traffic”?
Demand roughly
doubles every 2
years

Satellite Myth
Deferring to MIT to assess satellite bandwidth

Satellite Myth
Mega-constellations
Many new LEO mega-constellations are planned, but this study looked at
the 3 major projects:
•  OneWeb – 720 satellites

•  Telesat – 117 satellites
•  SpaceX (Elon Musk) – 4,425 satellites
Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: MIT Slide 60

Satellite Myth
Maximum Bandwidth per Satellite

Satellite Myth
Maximum Bandwidth per System

Satellite Myth
Maximum Bandwidth per System

Satellite Myth
Maximum Bandwidth per System versus “Half of Long-Distance Traffic”
“I say something then it

usually happens. Maybe
not on schedule, but it
usually happens”
Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: MIT, TeleGeography Slide 64

Satellite Myth
•  The Myth: new satellites will end the dominance of submarine cables.
•  Conclusion: no, but they will boost bandwidth and reduce latency to
underserved areas.
•  Status:

Fiber Pairs Myth
•  The Myth: Fiber pairs will become the new “coin of the realm.”
•  Status:

Fiber Pairs Myth
How we’ll test
•  Are fiber pairs a …

-  primary unit for measuring supply and
demand?
-  primary unit of purchase?

Fiber Pairs Myth
On some routes, FPs are best measure of scarcity
Trans-Atlantic Fiber Pairs (Each Rectangle = 1)

Fiber Pairs Myth
IRU prices over time: bigger capacity but similar $$

Fiber Pairs Myth
Why buy a fiber pair?
•  Pros
-  Economies of scale
-  Control / security
•  Cons
-  Big capacity requirement needed to make it work
•  Buying one won’t do; you need FPs on multiple systems for redundancy
-  Current scarcity
-  Opaque market
•  Will we soon see emergence of FP-only wholesale operator?

•  The Myth: Fiber pairs will become the new “coin of the realm.”
•  Conclusion: Already are for understanding supply/demand. Likely will
soon be for big transactions.
•  Status:

Five Senses Myth
•  The Myth: Humans’ 5 senses provide the ultimate ceiling on per-user

bandwidth
•  Status:

Five Senses Myth
A viewer-submitted myth!
(Our hero)

Five Senses Myth
Let’s test our vision first
•  Eye -> brain traffic = 8.6 Mbps

•  But we must recreate panorama
-  Single eye field of vision ~ 135º H, 135º V
-  Humans can perceive 200 pixels per º
-  1,500 megapixels per eye pair
Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source for traffic: “How Much the Eye Tells the Brain”, Current Biology 16, 1428–1434, July 25, 2006 Slide 74
Source for pixels per degree: http://www.clarkvision.com/articles/eye-resolution.html
Five Senses Myth
TV to the rescue!
•  8K video = 48 megapixels
•  8K displays required for 1 eye pair = 46
•  Bandwidth (uncompressed) per 8K
display = 48 Gbps
•  Markup to reach 500 frames per second
= 4.2
•  Total bandwidth required = 9 Tbps

Five Senses Myth
Putting it all together
•  Bandwidth required for vision = 9 Tbps

•  Markup to account for all senses = 3x
•  Total bandwidth per user = 27 Tbps
•  Users per household = 3.6
•  Total household bandwidth required =
99.1 Tbps

25
years

Five Senses Myth
•  The Myth: humans’ 5 senses provide the ultimate ceiling on per-user

bandwidth
•  Conclusion: There is a theoretical maximum to our input. But getting
there will take time and money.
•  Status:

Five Senses Myth
That’s a lot of cables, right?
•  Bandwidth required = 3.9x million

present day
•  Present sub cable infrastructure = 1.2
million km
•  Replacement cost = $25 billion

$95,607,382,804,334,700
subsea CAPEX

Five Senses Myth
Don’t be too proud of this technological terror you’ve constructed
Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.09054 Slide 81

THE END ? of the Mythbusters

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Mythbusters III:

The Final Reckoning

Name: Tim Stronge & Alan Mauldin

They are trained mythbusters. Do NOT attempt to test

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 2

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 3

• 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic flows through Northern Virginia

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 4

• The Myth: 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic flows through

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 5

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 6

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 7

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 8

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 9

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 10

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 11

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 12

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 13

• The Myth: 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic flows through

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 14

• The Myth: The industry’s current practices will be enough to

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 15

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 16

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 17

• Demand: content providers will curtail their tremendous growth by early/

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 18

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 19

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 20

• Spend more on cables

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 21

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 22

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 23

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 24

• The Myth: The industry’s current practices will be enough to

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 25

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 26

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 27

Let’s examine changes since the Brexit

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 28

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 29

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: LINX Slide 30

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 31

Two New U.K.-Connected Cables Entering Service in 2019

North Sea Connect CeltixConnect-2

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 32

• Enhanced route diversity was needed

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 33

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 34

• Planning cycles are long

• The U.K. did get a new trans-Atlantic cable recently

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 35

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 36

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 37

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Slide 38

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 39

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 40

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 41

Copyright © SubOptic2019 Source: TeleGeography Slide 42

•  70 percent of the world’s internet traffic flows through Northern Virginia

•  The Myth: 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic flows through

•  The Myth: 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic flows through

•  The Myth: The industry’s current practices will be enough to

•  Demand: content providers will curtail their tremendous growth by early/

•  Spend more on cables

•  The Myth: The industry’s current practices will be enough to

•  Enhanced route diversity was needed

•  Planning cycles are long

•  The U.K. did get a new trans-Atlantic cable recently

•  Length – can’t equalize distances across routes.

•  Topology – can’t link every city pair directly.

•  Competition – possible to boost competition on some routes still.

•  “We’re really talking about

•  OneWeb – 720 satellites

•  Are fiber pairs a …

•  The Myth: Humans’ 5 senses provide the ultimate ceiling on per-user

•  Eye -> brain traffic = 8.6 Mbps

•  Bandwidth required for vision = 9 Tbps

•  The Myth: humans’ 5 senses provide the ultimate ceiling on per-user

•  Bandwidth required = 3.9x million