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Earned Value Analysis in Scrum Projects
Earned Value Analysis in Scrum Projects
Tamara Sulaiman, PMP, CSM Brent Barton, CSM, CST Thomas Blackburn, PMP, CSM
SolutionsIQ SolutionsIQ InfoTech, Inc.
tsulaiman@solutionsiq.com bbarton@solutionsiq.com Thomas.blackburn@infotechfl.com
5/13/200 6
Project A is a one-half million dollar web 3/24/200 6
2/2/200 6
application project. The team is developing a product 1 2/14/2005
process. Due to dynamic business requirements, Fig. 2: Project A release date projections
sprints are one week long. Both the AgileEVM and
Scrum metrics are communicated to the entire team
at the end of each sprint. Key management
stakeholders are presented with the Burndown charts P ro je c t B R e le a se D a te P r o je c tio n C o m p a riso n s
11 /14 /2 007
E AC (atypical)
8/6 /20 07
Project B team is much larger than usual with 15-18 4 /28 /20 07
1 /18 /20 07
members, and continues to add team members every 10 /10 /2 006
7/2 /20 06
couple of sprints. This team is new to Scrum and 3 /24 /20 06
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Agile development methods. They are also collocated S p r in t s C o m p le t e d f o r R D e s tim a te
for the majority of the day. Sprints are 30 calendar
days long. Unlike Project A, the primary project Fig. 3: Project B release date projections
guide on Project B is the Scrum Burndown chart, not
the AgileEVM metrics. We were still able to validate The combined burndown and performance index
the correspondence of the data but circumstances charts provide evidence of the additional value
limited our ability to interpret decision support value. provided by AgileEVM. Consider Project A (see
Fig. 6: Project A Burndown, CPI, and SPI). This
project had a 30% budget buffer and the CPI index the CPI, SPI, and EAC. These metrics were
clearly shows the erosion of this buffer that the requested by both executive management and team
burndown doesn't recognize. Adjusting the planned members alike. Given that significant change is
release date in Project A at the end of Sprint 21 expected on an Agile project, it was necessary to
caused the SPI to move from an index value of 0.7 to remind team members and management that the
0.97 (see Fig. 2 and Fig. 6). This aligned the planned forecast release date, percent complete, Effort To
and projected release dates along with the AgileEVM Complete and Estimate At Complete are based on
indicators. what is actual “right now”. This is exactly the same
Project B has been adjusting scope down. The as with the burndown method.
SPI and CPI is registering the potential ROI of Executive management was comfortable with the
reducing scope in Sprint nine (see Fig. 7: Project B AgileEVM metrics and found them useful in making
Burndown, CPI, and SPI). This scope reduction is decisions concerning the direction of the product.
demonstrated by comparing the flattening velocity of Reviewing this data helped them validate decisions
Sprints six through nine to the indices (see Fig. 5: and the need for process change.
Project B velocity). Note that the same result can
also be interpreted by evaluating the burndown graph 5.2 The Agility of AgileEVM
and the velocity. This action of reducing scope has
kept the cost and schedule constraints within current A key question of the usefulness of AgileEVM is
expectations. the level of agility. Would the implementation of the
The data also showed strong correlation in the method add "drag" to a Scrum team’s velocity? If so,
cost information provided by AgileEVM and manual would the impact to velocity outweigh the added
planning calculations. Given the expected behavior value of the information?
of the indices in traditional EVM, it is clear that the
CPI, SPI and EAC behaved as expected given the P r o je c t A B u r n d o w n a n d In d ic e s
budget, schedule, and scope.
600 2 .0 0
B u rndo w n
1 .8 0
500 CPI
1 .6 0
P ro je c t A V e lo c ity SP I
P o in ts R e m a in in g
1 .4 0
400
In d e x V a lu e
1 .2 0
14 0 300 1 .0 0
V elo city 0 .8 0
12 0
200
0 .6 0
P o in ts C o m p le te d
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Fig. 6: Project A Burndown, CPI, SPI
S p rin t
P r o je c t B B u r n d o w n a n d In d ic e s
Fig. 4: Project A velocity
5000 2
B u rndo w n
4500 1 .8
CPI
4000 1 .6
P r o je c t B V e lo c ity SP I
P o in ts R e m a in in g
3500 1 .4 In d e x V a lu e
3000 1 .2
2500 1
40 0
V elo city 2000 0 .8
35 0
M ean V elo city 1500 0 .6
P o in ts C o m p le te d
30 0
25 0 1000 0 .4
20 0 500 0 .2
15 0 0 0
10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
50 S p rin t
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Fig. 5: Project B velocity The question was posed to the team on Project
A: "Did the process of collecting or calculating the
AgileEVM metrics add weight to the project?" The
An interesting aspect is the way the information answer was a resounding, "No! The data used in
was used on Project A. The metrics providing the AgileEVM is data that is already available. The
most value to team members and management were calculation and tracking of the metrics was automated
in the spreadsheet that the ScrumMaster maintained. feel that the validity of the AgileEVM techniques is
Communication of the metrics to the project team established.
was as easy as posting the results on the wall, and The implementation of the AgileEVM process
having the information available during the project has no noticeable impact on a Scrum team’s velocity.
retrospective discussions." Also, the value of the data was confirmed by the team
Most of the developers reacted positively to the who had access to the metrics, as well as the
availability of the data, feeling that if an analysis was ScrumMaster and management stakeholders for the
needed in order to determine a cause of a certain project. Thus, we are encouraged that the AgileEVM
issue, like a sudden loss in velocity, the data is metrics do indeed add value to Scrum projects.
readily available to review. The team was able to For the ScrumMaster, it is clear that metrics that
quickly identify changes in key metrics, and this are familiar go a long way to ease the discomfort that
aided in the continuous improvement of the team. new, unfamiliar methodologies can induce. The
The Product Owners for both projects felt that analysis that AgileEVM provides, along with the
the AgileEVM metrics did not provide any more burndown method, helps to substantiate intuition and
schedule insight than the burndown chart provided. provides executives with quantitative data in a
It is interesting to note that the Product Owners for consistent manner. The cost analysis, with its
these projects do not have budget responsibility. We forecast Estimate at Complete and Estimate to
agree that without the need to manage cost Complete are valuable to Agile stakeholders
performance, AgileEVM does not add significant calculating estimated ROI. Agile stakeholders who
value above traditional burndown methods. are responsible for making budget decisions find this
The ScrumMaster/project manager for Project A, information extremely valuable.
who does have budget responsibility, found the data Our recommendation is that AgileEVM be used
particularly useful for validating project status, in conjunction with the Burndown chart and team
tracking and forecasting potential budget issues, velocity as supporting data. One important caveat is
identifying alternative strategies by running "what if" that change is expected on Agile projects and so the
scenarios using AgileEVM to predict results, as well AgileEVM metrics are derived from what is true at
as communicating status and issues with the product each Sprint boundary.
owner and management. . Providing the team and Agile stakeholders with
The ScrumMaster/project manager on Project B useful and understandable data is vital to the "rudder"
did not use or report the AgileEVM metrics, nor were with which the Scrum team steers toward better
the metrics shared with team members or processes and continuous improvement. By
management stakeholders. Data was collected, providing the burndown and AgileEVM metrics
analyzed and compared to actual results without together, the team is better equipped to succeed.
impacting the team. The very fact that the process of
collecting and calculating the data did not impose on References
the team at all gives further credence to the view that
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Scrum, Microsoft Press, Redmond, WA, 2004.
6. Conclusions
[2] “Guide to the Project Management Body of
Knowledge - PMBOK® Guide 2003 Edition”, Project
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EVM on scrum projects several key questions needed
to be answered. First, are the metrics valid for Scrum [3] David S. Christiansen, Daniel V. Ferens, “Using
projects? Second, is the process lightweight? Third, Earned Value for Performance Measurement on Software
do the resulting metrics add value? Development Projects, Acquisition Review Quarterly,
Assuming that the burndown trend analysis is DAU Press, Fort Belvoir, Virginia, Spring 1995, pgs 155 –
valid for Agile projects, we have shown 170,
mathematically that the calculations for Release date http://www.suu.edu/faculty/christensend/EVonSWprojects.
using Estimate At Complete and calculations for pdf.
Release date using the burndown trend analysis are [4] Fleming, C.D., Koppelman, Joel M. Koppelman,
the same. Empirically, we have tracked the results of Earned Value Project Management – 2nd Edition, Project
two projects and have shown the indistinguishable Management Institute, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania,
results of the data generated from both methods. We 2000.
[5] Quentin Fleming and Joel Koppelman, “Earned Value
Project Management – A Powerful Tool for Software
Projects”, Crosstalk - The Journal of Defense Software
Engineering, Ogden, UT, July 1998.
http://www.stsc.hill.af.mil/crosstalk/1998/07/value.asp