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Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Overweight: Reinventing Data Stack Via Disruptive Software Layer Initiating at Overweight
Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Overweight: Reinventing Data Stack Via Disruptive Software Layer Initiating at Overweight
Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Overweight: Reinventing Data Stack Via Disruptive Software Layer Initiating at Overweight
O c t o b e r 11 , 2 0 2 0
CONCLUSION
PRICE: US$238.00
SNOW has built a new cloud-native software layer that has the potential to redefine and
TARGET: US$264.00
modernize the enterprise data stack. Despite high valuation risks that could spark elevated 60x CY26E FCF of $1.5B discounted back 4
stock volatility over the next six months, we are initiating coverage on SNOW at Overweight yrs by 10%(357M shares, $815M net cash)
with a bias to add to positions on weakness based on a unique cloud product and proven
Brent A. Bracelin
leadership team capable of executing on a compelling 10-year growth trajectory. A premium
Sr. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.
valuation is warranted for longer-term oriented investors looking out 3-5 years based on 503 275-8316, brent.bracelin@psc.com
1) triple-digit growth last quarter at $0.5 billion revenue scale, 2) a proven leadership team
Clarke Jeffries
stacked with A+ talent, 3) a clear path to multi-billion dollar revenue run-rate within two Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.
years, 4) usage-based pricing model where growth is tied data processing, and 5) secular 503 275-8318, clarke.jeffries@psc.com
growth drivers tied to an untapped greenfield digitization opportunity that can augment a Parker M. Snook
large $300B replacement market ripe for modernization. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.
503 275-8313, parker.snook@psc.com
• New cloud-native software layer is redefining the data stack. Snowflake was
designed and built from the ground-up as a new cloud-native software layer that can Changes Previous Current
scale automatically with zero maintenance and the inherent capabilities to tackle multiple Rating Overweight
data challenges (cost, complexity, etc.) with no performance trade-offs. This multi-cluster Price Tgt US$264.00
architecture with 251 pending or issued patents gives it a distinct advantage over on- FY21E Rev (mil) — US$562.6
FY22E Rev (mil) — US$1,077.4
premise legacy data vendors and first generation cloud applications like AWS Redshift.
FY21E EPS — US$(1.08)
FY22E EPS — US$(1.02)
• Greenfield digital shift to augment a $300B replacement market. We see a large and
52-Week High / Low US$319.00 / US$208.55
untapped opportunity for Snowflake to become the leading cloud data platform powering
Shares Out (mil) 357.3
digital initiatives at CapitalOne, Disney, Nike, Netflix, and McKesson, among others. This Market Cap. (mil) US$85,037.4
digital greenfield opportunity should augment the $300 billion replacement opportunity Div Yield 0.00%
across the traditional data stack that is ripe for modernization. Fiscal Year End Jan
Scarpelli, CFO, who scaled ServiceNow to multi-billion revenue scale, and the sheer size
of the market opportunity gives us confidence SNOW can sustain high-growth through 250
2030. We estimate this consumption-driven revenue model could reach $9.5B by CY26E
(vs. $0.5B run-rate today) assuming a 60% CAGR. 200
150
• Initiating coverage at Overweight with a $264 PT. Snowflake is a disruptive cloud-
native software layer that has the potential to redefine the cloud data platform of the 100
future. Despite high valuation risks that could spark elevated stock volatility over the next Sep-20
six months, we are initiating coverage on SNOW at Overweight with a bias to add to Source: Bloomberg
positions on weakness. We are establishing a PT of $264 applying a CY26E EV/FCF
target of 60x, discounted back 10%.
R I S K S TO A C H I E V E M E N T O F P T & R E C O M M E N D AT I O N
Competition, customer concentration, partnerships with public cloud vendors.
C O M PA N Y D E S C R I P T I O N
Snowflake is a disruptive cloud software layer reinventing the enterprise data stack.
REVENUE (US$ m) EARNINGS PER SHARE (US$)
YEAR
Apr Jul Oct Jan FY CY CY Apr Jul Oct Jan FY CY CY
2020A 43.7 60.3 73.0 87.7 264.7 — NA — — — — NA — NA
2021E 108.8A 133.1A 144.6 176.0 562.6 — NA (0.30)A (0.24)A (0.29) (0.25) (1.08) — NA
2022E 212.8 246.7 289.6 328.4 1,077.4 — NA (0.30) (0.29) (0.23) (0.18) (1.02) — NA
Piper Sandler does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only
a single factor in making their investment decisions. This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure information,
including an attestation under Regulation Analyst Certification, found on pages 39 - 41 of this report or at the following site:
http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures.
Snowflake Inc. Page 1 of 41
SNOW | Investment Thesis
Initiating coverage at Overweight with price target of $264
40%
100%
120%
140%
0%
(20%)
7/8/2019
-
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
5,000,000
7/15/2019
7/22/2019 7/8/2019
Weekly
7/29/2019 7/15/2019
8/5/2019 7/22/2019
8/12/2019 7/29/2019
8/19/2019 8/5/2019
8/26/2019 8/12/2019
9/2/2019 8/19/2019
9/9/2019 8/26/2019
9/16/2019 9/2/2019
9/23/2019 9/9/2019
9/30/2019 9/16/2019
10/7/2019 9/23/2019
10/14/2019 9/30/2019
10/21/2019 10/7/2019
10/28/2019 10/14/2019
11/4/2019 10/21/2019
11/11/2019 10/28/2019
11/18/2019 11/4/2019
11/25/2019 11/11/2019
12/2/2019 11/18/2019
11/25/2019
12/9/2019
12/2/2019
12/16/2019
7%
12/9/2019
12/23/2019
12/16/2019
12/30/2019
12/23/2019
1/6/2020 12/30/2019
1/13/2020 1/6/2020
y/y growth
1/20/2020 1/13/2020
1/27/2020 1/20/2020
Weekly Download Sums
2/3/2020 1/27/2020
2/10/2020 2/3/2020
2/17/2020 2/10/2020
2/24/2020 2/17/2020
3/2/2020 2/24/2020
3/9/2020 3/2/2020
3/16/2020 3/9/2020
3/23/2020 3/16/2020
Digital Enterprise Inflection
3/30/2020 3/23/2020
4/6/2020 3/30/2020
4/13/2020 4/6/2020
4/20/2020 4/13/2020
4/27/2020 4/20/2020
5/4/2020 4/27/2020
Download Activity and % Y/Y Growth Trendline
5/11/2020 5/4/2020
5/18/2020 5/11/2020
Accelerating digital transformation trends could spark the next major data tsunami
5/25/2020 5/18/2020
6/1/2020 5/25/2020
6/8/2020 6/1/2020
6/15/2020 6/8/2020
6/22/2020 6/15/2020
6/29/2020 6/22/2020
6/29/2020
73%
7/6/2020
7/6/2020
DAPR Vol. 2 | Total Digital Activity (n=50)
Page 5 of 41
Industry Background | Digital Awakening Accelerating Digital Drivers
Industry Background | Why is Digital Data Increasingly Important?
Data is at the heart of digital transformations
2019 2030E
1% 10% 50%
1,000 days
Data
5 Gravity
To transfer 1 petabyte of data
using a 100 Mbps connection
Data Challenges
Data
2 Complexity Yes Yes Yes Yes
3 Data Yes
Compatibility via SQL
support
Data
4 Accessibility Yes Yes Yes
Yes
Data via Data
5 Gravity Sharing
$300B 200EB+
investments into the data Storage capacity
stack over the last four shipments in 2019
years (2016-2019)
$688M
RPO Backlog
$532M >1EB*
Revenue run-rate Snowflake
data cloud
0.2% Penetration
0.5% Penetration
*Exabyte: 1,000 Petabytes
$10B
4-year Spend (2016-2019)
Data Integration
$21B
4-year Spend (2016-2019)
Database | Data
Warehouse
$179B **Snowflake sizes the TAM opportunity at $81B in
4-year Spend (2016-2019)
*Inclusive of all DBMS the S-1 filing applying average customer spend
across businesses worldwide with 200+ employees.
“But if we go out to that 2025, we're looking at about, the best estimate, 175 zettabytes
275ZB of data created. The anomaly here is that a lot of that data is not stored. It's very
volume of digital information created transient. It's started at the end of the session. When you log off of your computer, all
by 2025E the temporary files go away, everything that was generated to support that activity or
that session vanish and the data is not permanently stored. And out of that, we see
about 95% of the data that is created really never does get stored. So that leaves us in
2025 with the best estimate of around 7.5 zettabytes of stored data.”
$21B
4-year Spend (2016-2019)
Database | Data
Warehouse
$179B
4-year Spend (2016-2019)
*Inclusive of all DBMS
215
Patents applications
pending or issued in
the U.S.
$179B $12B
Estimated
Revenue
investment in $9.4B
database, data revenue run-rate at
modern cloud software
warehouse, and platforms $1.7B
data lakes between
2016-2019.
$0.5B
7% 39% yy
of installed base
converted to cloud in the $0.5B
last year 121% yy
$15.1B
Most at risk $4.9B
$0.8B
$0.7B
5 IaaS Customer
No No No Yes
*meaningful spend
% of Revenue By Enterprise Customer Cohort Key GTM Changes in the last 12 months
Results:
7 Fortune 10 • Customers spending over $1M growing 155% y/y in
Customers
2Q21 compared to total customers growth of 101%
• RPO with contracts with terms over 12 months grew
146 Fortune 500 +342% from F2020 to F1H21.
Customers
Opportunity:
• G2K opportunity aligns with the current enterprise sales motion
• Direct sales and marketing outside of North America. Currently
Majority of current international sales is done from North
America, but SNOW has a small dedicated sales teams for
EMEA and APAC.
• Utilize GSI’s to increase footprint in region with little presence
from Snowflake
Traditional data sharing requires large amounts of resources for Snowflake removes the friction of sharing data with a
even simple requests, and is burdened by manual, time consuming, proprietary data exchange; allowing users to monetize their
and error prone processes. datasets by enabling querying/access from other customers.
Base-Case
$2B+ $9.5B
$8,000
revenue run-rate within 10 quarters
+60%
Revenue
6-Year CAGR
(billions)
$6,000
$6.5B
$4,000
$4.4B
$2,000 $2.8B
$1.7B
$563M
$1.0B
$0
CY20E CY21E CY22E CY23E CY24E CY25E CY26E
Total Customers
101% y/y
2Q20 56 155% y/y 47%
$1M+ Customers 2Q20 of product
revenue
146 26%
Fortune 500 Customers of revenue
Customers with $1M in TTM Revenue
7 4%
Fortune 10 Customers of revenue
Estimated Product Revenue $42,766 $57,818 $69,213 $82,432 $252,229 $101,817 $125,216 $135,581 $165,509 $528,123 $196,377 $228,692 $268,110 $305,357 $998,535
% Q/Q 17% 35% 20% 19% NM 24% 23% 8% 22% NM 19% 16% 17% 14% NM
% Y/Y 126% NM 138% 117% 96% 101% 109% 93% 83% 98% 84% 89%
$ chg q/q $42,766 $15,052 $11,395 $13,219 $19,385 $23,399 $10,365 $29,929 $30,867 $32,315 $39,417 $37,247
Revenue Mix
Product Revenue 99% 98% 96% 95% 94% 95% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 92% 93% 93% 93% 93%
Professional Services Revenue 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Y/Y Growth
Product Revenue 224% 227% 143% 127% 164% 138% 117% 96% 101% 109% 93% 83% 98% 84% 89%
Professional Services Revenue 333% 996% 1604% 1581% 1174% 645% 215% 138% 100% 175% 134% 127% 138% 119% 129%
Product Revenue $95,683 $42,766 $57,818 $69,213 $82,432 $252,229 $101,817 $125,216 $135,581 $165,509 $528,123 $196,377 $228,692 $268,110 $305,357 $998,535
Professional Services Revenue $983 $939 $2,521 $3,799 $5,260 $12,519 $6,998 $7,929 $9,042 $10,520 $34,489 $16,400 $18,000 $21,500 $23,000 $78,900
Total Revenue $96,666 $43,705 $60,339 $73,012 $87,692 $264,748 $108,815 $133,145 $144,622 $176,029 $562,611 $212,777 $246,692 $289,610 $328,357 $1,077,435
% Q/Q NM 19% 38% 21% 20% NM 24% 22% 9% 22% NM 21% 16% 17% 13% NM
% Y/Y NM 226% 237% 155% 139% 174% 149% 121% 98% 101% 113% 96% 85% 100% 87% 92%
$ chg in product q/q $6,401 $15,052 $11,395 $13,219 $19,385 $23,399 $10,365 $29,929 $30,867 $32,315 $39,417 $37,247
Total Gross Profit $46,826 $20,531 $33,103 $44,638 $54,419 $152,691 $67,774 $84,173 $90,206 $111,992 $354,145 $140,084 $167,845 $196,795 $224,980 $729,704
% Gross Margin 48.4% 47.0% 54.9% 61.1% 62.1% 57.7% 62.3% 63.2% 62.4% 63.6% 62.9% 65.8% 68.0% 68.0% 68.5% 67.7%
Product GM % 57.6% 55.1% 60.8% 65.4% 66.0% 62.8% 66.0% 66.6% 67.0% 69.0% 67.3% 71.0% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 72.6%
Basis points chg q/q (528) 568 455 65 (2) 62 40 200 200 200 - -
Pro-Services GM % 941.7% -324.4% -81.5% -15.7% 0.2% -45.4% 8.5% 9.8% -7.0% -21.0% -4.3% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 9.0% 6.0%
Research and Development $39,648 $18,635 $22,707 $23,253 $24,779 $89,374 $27,336 $31,367 $37,602 $44,007 $140,312 $48,939 $55,506 $62,266 $68,955 $235,665
% of Revenue 41.0% 42.6% 37.6% 31.8% 28.3% 33.8% 25.1% 23.6% 26.0% 25.0% 24.9% 23.0% 22.5% 21.5% 21.0% 21.9%
Sales & Marketing $109,757 $58,436 $68,318 $70,839 $75,005 $272,598 $91,475 $87,291 $101,235 $109,138 $389,140 $141,497 $160,350 $167,974 $172,387 $642,207
% of Revenue 113.5% 133.7% 113.2% 97.0% 85.5% 103.0% 84.1% 65.6% 70.0% 62.0% 69.2% 66.5% 65.0% 58.0% 52.5% 59.6%
General & Administration $29,060 $14,550 $18,965 $17,399 $18,369 $69,283 $21,506 $23,789 $26,755 $29,045 $101,095 $32,555 $35,770 $37,070 $39,403 $144,798
% of Revenue 30.1% 33.3% 31.4% 23.8% 20.9% 26.2% 19.8% 17.9% 18.5% 16.5% 18.0% 15.3% 14.5% 12.8% 12.0% 13.4%
Total Operating Expenses $178,465 $91,621 $109,990 $111,491 $118,153 $609,720 $140,317 $142,447 $165,592 $182,190 $1,240,267 $222,990 $251,626 $267,310 $280,745 $2,262,937
% Y/Y NM 226% 237% 155% 139% 242% 53% 30% 49% 54% 103% 59% 77% 61% 54% 82%
% of Revenue 184.6% 209.6% 182.3% 152.7% 134.7% 230.3% 129.0% 107.0% 114.5% 103.5% 220.4% 104.8% 102.0% 92.3% 85.5% 210.0%
Operating Income ($131,639) ($71,090) ($76,887) ($66,853) ($63,734) ($278,564) ($72,543) ($58,274) ($75,386) ($70,198) ($276,401) ($82,907) ($83,781) ($70,515) ($55,765) ($292,966)
% Margin (136%) (163%) (127%) (92%) (73%) (105%) (67%) (44%) (52%) (40%) (49%) (39%) (34%) (24%) (17%) (27%)
Non-Operating Expenses / (Income) ($8,257) ($3,307) ($2,675) ($2,451) ($2,113) ($10,546) ($2,515) ($580) ($2,000) ($2,000) ($7,095) ($2,000) ($2,000) ($2,000) ($2,000) ($8,000)
Pre-Tax income ($123,382) ($67,783) ($74,212) ($64,402) ($61,621) ($268,018) ($70,028) ($57,694) ($73,386) ($68,198) ($269,306) ($80,907) ($81,781) ($68,515) ($53,765) ($284,966)
Provision (Benefit) for Income Tax $845 $333 $328 $285 $465 $1,411 $115 $1,216 $1,468 $1,364 $4,163 $1,618 $1,636 $1,370 $1,075 $5,699
Tax Rate (%) (0.7%) (0.5%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.8%) (0.5%) (0.2%) (2.1%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (1.5%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%)
Net Income ($124,227) ($68,116) ($74,540) ($64,687) ($62,086) ($269,429) ($70,143) ($58,910) ($74,854) ($69,562) ($273,469) ($82,525) ($83,416) ($69,885) ($54,840) ($290,666)
% Margin (129%) (156%) (124%) (89%) (71%) (102%) (64%) (44%) (52%) (40%) (49%) (39%) (34%) (24%) (17%)
Non-GAAP Product
Gross Margin
63% 67% ~75%
Cloud agreements will lead to
GM expansion
R&D 34% 25% ~20%
% of Revenue
S&M
103% 69% ~40%
% of Revenue
G&A
26% 18% ~10%
% of Revenue
Non-GAAP
(105%) (49%) (5%)
Operating Margin
CY26E CY26E
Forecast CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E CY23E CY24E CY25E CY26E Bull-Case Base-Case
Revenue (B)
Bull-case
Base-case
$265
$265
$585
$564
$1,145
$1,073
$2,061
$1,736
$3,607
$2,778
$5,908
$4,390
$9,000
$6,497
$12,000
$9,500
$12B $9.5B
Bear-case $265 $558 $1,052 $1,650 $2,560 $3,897 $5,580 $7,500
Act 1 3x
moving to President of Products in 2019.
Chris Degnan
market-cap and 3x revenue
from IPO until EMC Chief Revenue Officer
Frank Slootman Mike Scarpelli acquisition in 2009 Joined in 2013 and promoted to Chief Revenue
Officer in 2018. Prior to Snowflake, Mr. Degnan
served in various sales roles at EMC.
Christian Kleinerman
CEO CFO Senior Vice President of Product
2012 IPO Joined in 2018 as VP of Product bringing 4
years of experience at Google and 13 years at
Act 2 25x
Microsoft.
Greg Czajkowski
market-cap from IPO and
Senior Vice President of Engineering
10x revenue until CFO
Frank Slootman Mike Scarpelli Joined Snowflake in 2019 as SVP of Engineering
departure in 2019.
bringing 13 years of experience at Google and 6
years at Sun Microsystems.
Dean Klinger
CEO CFO Senior Vice President of Sales, Major Accounts
Joined in 2019 after 8 years at ServiceNow, 3
years at EMC|Data Domain, and 4 years at Cisco.
Past performance is not indicative of the future, and a repeat of such performance is not guaranteed.
Sources: Company reports, Piper Sandler
Michael Scarpelli
1 Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Scarpelli has been Chief Financial Offer since 2019. Prior to joining Snowflake Mr. Scarpelli served as Chief Financial Officer
Year at Firm at ServiceNow for 8 years. Before that Mr. Scarpelli was SVP of Finance and Business Operations at Backup Recovery Systems
Division at EMC and served as Chief Financial Officer at Data Domain Corporation. Mr. Scarpelli holds a B. A. in Economics from
University of Western Ontario.
Benoit Dageville
8 Co-Founder, President of Products and Director
Dr. Dageville co-founded Snowflake in 2012 as Chief Technology Officer and Director, before moving into his current role as President
Years at Firm of the Product division in 2019. Prior to founding Snowflake, Mr. Dageville served in various engineering roles at Oracle including
Architect in the SQL Manageability Group. Dr. Dageville holds a B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. in Computer Science from Jussieu University.
Chris Degnan
5 Chief Revenue Officer
Mr. Degnan joined Snowflake in 2013 serving in various sales roles and was promoted to Chief Revenue Officer in 2018. Prior to
Years at Firm
Snowflake Mr. Degnan served as AVP of the West at EMC, and prior to that serving as VP for the Western Region at Aveska. Mr.
Degnan holds a B.A. in Human Resources from the University of Delaware.
Thierry Cruanes
8 Co-Founder
Mr. Cruanes co-founded Snowflake in August 2012 as the founding architect as was well known to be a leading expert in query
Years at Firm
optimization and parallel execution. Prior to founding Snowflake, Mr. Cruanes spent 13 years at Oracle focused on the optimization
and parallelization layers in Oracle databases. Mr. Cruanes has a PhD in Computer Science with a focus in Database Systems and
holds over 40 patents.
Source: Company Reports, S-1 Filings
Revenue Mix
Product Revenue 99% 98% 96% 95% 94% 95% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 92% 93% 93% 93% 93%
Professional Services Revenue 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Y/Y Growth
Product Revenue 224% 227% 143% 127% 164% 138% 117% 96% 101% 109% 93% 83% 98% 84% 89%
Professional Services Revenue 333% 996% 1604% 1581% 1174% 645% 215% 138% 100% 175% 134% 127% 138% 119% 129%
Product Revenue $95,683 $42,766 $57,818 $69,213 $82,432 $252,229 $101,817 $125,216 $135,581 $165,509 $528,123 $196,377 $228,692 $268,110 $305,357 $998,535
Professional Services Revenue $983 $939 $2,521 $3,799 $5,260 $12,519 $6,998 $7,929 $9,042 $10,520 $34,489 $16,400 $18,000 $21,500 $23,000 $78,900
Total Revenue $96,666 $43,705 $60,339 $73,012 $87,692 $264,748 $108,815 $133,145 $144,622 $176,029 $562,611 $212,777 $246,692 $289,610 $328,357 $1,077,435
% Q/Q NM 19% 38% 21% 20% NM 24% 22% 9% 22% NM 21% 16% 17% 13% NM
% Y/Y NM 226% 237% 155% 139% 174% 149% 121% 98% 101% 113% 96% 85% 100% 87% 92%
$ chg in product q/q $6,401 $15,052 $11,395 $13,219 $19,385 $23,399 $10,365 $29,929 $30,867 $32,315 $39,417 $37,247
Total Gross Profit $46,826 $20,531 $33,103 $44,638 $54,419 $152,691 $67,774 $84,173 $90,206 $111,992 $354,145 $140,084 $167,845 $196,795 $224,980 $729,704
% Gross Margin 48.4% 47.0% 54.9% 61.1% 62.1% 57.7% 62.3% 63.2% 62.4% 63.6% 62.9% 65.8% 68.0% 68.0% 68.5% 67.7%
Product GM % 57.6% 55.1% 60.8% 65.4% 66.0% 62.8% 66.0% 66.6% 67.0% 69.0% 67.3% 71.0% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 72.6%
Basis points chg q/q (528) 568 455 65 (2) 62 40 200 200 200 - -
Pro-Services GM % 941.7% -324.4% -81.5% -15.7% 0.2% -45.4% 8.5% 9.8% -7.0% -21.0% -4.3% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 9.0% 6.0%
Research and Development $39,648 $18,635 $22,707 $23,253 $24,779 $89,374 $27,336 $31,367 $37,602 $44,007 $140,312 $48,939 $55,506 $62,266 $68,955 $235,665
% of Revenue 41.0% 42.6% 37.6% 31.8% 28.3% 33.8% 25.1% 23.6% 26.0% 25.0% 24.9% 23.0% 22.5% 21.5% 21.0% 21.9%
Sales & Marketing $109,757 $58,436 $68,318 $70,839 $75,005 $272,598 $91,475 $87,291 $101,235 $109,138 $389,140 $141,497 $160,350 $167,974 $172,387 $642,207
% of Revenue 113.5% 133.7% 113.2% 97.0% 85.5% 103.0% 84.1% 65.6% 70.0% 62.0% 69.2% 66.5% 65.0% 58.0% 52.5% 59.6%
General & Administration $29,060 $14,550 $18,965 $17,399 $18,369 $69,283 $21,506 $23,789 $26,755 $29,045 $101,095 $32,555 $35,770 $37,070 $39,403 $144,798
% of Revenue 30.1% 33.3% 31.4% 23.8% 20.9% 26.2% 19.8% 17.9% 18.5% 16.5% 18.0% 15.3% 14.5% 12.8% 12.0% 13.4%
Total Operating Expenses $178,465 $91,621 $109,990 $111,491 $118,153 $609,720 $140,317 $142,447 $165,592 $182,190 $1,240,267 $222,990 $251,626 $267,310 $280,745 $2,262,937
% Y/Y NM 226% 237% 155% 139% 242% 53% 30% 49% 54% 103% 59% 77% 61% 54% 82%
% of Revenue 184.6% 209.6% 182.3% 152.7% 134.7% 230.3% 129.0% 107.0% 114.5% 103.5% 220.4% 104.8% 102.0% 92.3% 85.5% 210.0%
Operating Income ($131,639) ($71,090) ($76,887) ($66,853) ($63,734) ($278,564) ($72,543) ($58,274) ($75,386) ($70,198) ($276,401) ($82,907) ($83,781) ($70,515) ($55,765) ($292,966)
% Margin (136%) (163%) (127%) (92%) (73%) (105%) (67%) (44%) (52%) (40%) (49%) (39%) (34%) (24%) (17%) (27%)
Non-Operating Expenses / (Income) ($8,257) ($3,307) ($2,675) ($2,451) ($2,113) ($10,546) ($2,515) ($580) ($2,000) ($2,000) ($7,095) ($2,000) ($2,000) ($2,000) ($2,000) ($8,000)
Pre-Tax income ($123,382) ($67,783) ########## ########## ########## ($268,018) ($70,028) ($57,694) ($73,386) ($68,198) ($269,306) ($80,907) ($81,781) ($68,515) ($53,765) ($284,966)
Provision (Benefit) for Income Tax $845 $333 $328 $285 $465 $1,411 $115 $1,216 $1,468 $1,364 $4,163 $1,618 $1,636 $1,370 $1,075 $5,699
Tax Rate (%) (0.7%) (0.5%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.8%) (0.5%) (0.2%) (2.1%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (1.5%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%) (2.0%)
Net Income ($124,227) ($68,116) ($74,540) ($64,687) ($62,086) ($269,429) ($70,143) ($58,910) ($74,854) ($69,562) ($273,469) ($82,525) ($83,416) ($69,885) ($54,840) ($290,666)
% Margin (129%) (156%) (124%) (89%) (71%) (102%) (64%) (44%) (52%) (40%) (49%) (39%) (34%) (24%) (17%)
Basic EPS NA NA NA NA NA NA ($0.30) ($0.24) ($0.29) ($0.25) ($1.08) ($0.30) ($0.29) ($0.23) ($0.18) ($1.02)
Basic Shares Outstanding (k) NA NA NA NA NA NA 235,100 241,100 260,200 278,400 253,700 278,500 281,900 286,600 290,900 284,475
Source: Piper Sandler estimates and Company Filings
Current disclosure information for this company can be found at:
www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures
Last Updated: 10/09/20
Long-Term Investments $0 $0 $26,729 $29,058 $23,532 $23,532 $118,917 $295,944 $295,944 $295,944 $295,944 $295,944 $295,944 $295,944 $295,944 $295,944
Property and equipment, net $7,215 $11,111 $21,142 $23,584 $27,136 $27,136 $31,133 $42,766 $60,595 $76,978 $76,978 $89,499 $98,941 $106,956 $112,225 $112,225
Operating lease right-of-use assets $15,541 $162,229 $197,210 $194,688 $195,976 $195,976 $191,409 $187,051 $178,428 $169,375 $169,375 $159,868 $151,312 $143,612 $136,682 $136,682
Goodwill $0 $5,212 $7,049 $7,049 $7,049 $7,049 $7,049 $8,449 $8,449 $8,449 $8,449 $8,449 $8,449 $8,449 $8,449 $8,449
Intangible assets, net $20 $3,777 $5,391 $5,093 $4,795 $4,795 $10,400 $15,695 $15,404 $15,025 $15,025 $14,533 $13,893 $13,062 $11,980 $11,980
Deferred commission expense, net of current portion $32,658 $34,691 $40,989 $48,853 $69,516 $69,516 $68,106 $69,795 $63,639 $58,099 $58,099 $52,835 $48,361 $44,559 $41,326 $41,326
Other assets $9,902 $17,372 $18,920 $18,978 $19,522 $19,522 $22,614 $24,093 $24,093 $24,093 $24,093 $24,093 $24,093 $24,093 $24,093 $24,093
Total assets $764,288 $891,776 $925,124 $940,862 $1,012,720 $1,012,720 $1,416,181 $1,437,241 $1,431,611 $1,491,394 $1,491,394 $1,478,028 $1,490,588 $1,520,400 $1,609,676 $1,609,676
Operating lease liabilities $12,543 $157,874 $196,382 $192,830 $193,175 $193,175 $188,625 $184,255 $174,560 $167,360 $167,360 $157,910 $149,074 $140,344 $134,044 $134,044
Deferred revenue $2,984 $2,336 $1,854 $2,952 $2,907 $2,907 $2,472 $3,135 $3,135 $3,135 $3,135 $3,135 $3,135 $3,135 $3,135 $3,135
Other Long-Term Liabilities $5,470 $5,080 $7,007 $8,799 $8,466 $8,466 $7,768 $8,544 $8,544 $8,544 $8,544 $8,544 $8,544 $8,544 $8,544 $8,544
Total liabilities $165,902 $341,375 $447,536 $493,826 $621,003 $621,003 $605,180 $673,593 $742,717 $871,962 $871,962 $941,021 $1,036,897 $1,136,494 $1,280,510 $1,280,510
Redeemable convertible preferred stock $910,853 $923,572 $923,572 $936,474 $936,474 $936,474 $1,415,047 $1,415,047 $1,415,047 $1,415,047 $1,415,047 $1,415,047 $1,415,047 $1,415,047 $1,415,047 $1,415,047
Common stock $5 $5 $5 $5 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6 $6
Additional paid-in capital $39,296 $62,374 $82,935 $127,368 $155,340 $155,340 $188,416 $219,046 $219,046 $219,046 $219,046 $219,046 $219,046 $219,046 $219,046 $219,046
Accumlated other comprehensive income $16 $43 $84 $254 $216 $216 $1,495 $1,146 $1,146 $1,146 $1,146 $1,146 $1,146 $1,146 $1,146 $1,146
Acculated deficit ($351,784) ($435,593) ($529,008) ($617,065) ($700,319) ($700,319) ($793,963) ($871,597) ($946,351) ($1,015,813) ($1,015,813) ($1,098,238) ($1,181,554) ($1,251,339) ($1,306,079) ($1,306,079)
Total stockholders' equity ($312,467) (373,171) (445,984) (489,438) (544,757) ($544,757) ($604,046) ($651,399) ($726,153) ($795,615) ($795,615) ($878,040) ($961,356) ($1,031,141) ($1,085,881) ($1,085,881)
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity $764,288 $891,776 $925,124 $940,862 $1,012,720 $1,012,720 $1,416,181 $1,437,241 $1,431,611 $1,491,394 $1,491,394 $1,478,028 $1,490,588 $1,520,400 $1,609,676 $1,609,676
Source: Piper Sandler estimates and Company Filings
(figures in $ thousands)
Operating Activities:
Net Loss ($178,028) ($83,809) ($93,415) ($88,057) ($83,254) ($348,535) ($93,644) ($77,634) ($103,678) ($104,668) ($379,624) ($124,980) ($132,655) ($127,707) ($120,411) ($505,753)
Depreciation and amortization $1,362 $609 $755 $893 $1,265 $3,522 $1,522 $2,240 $2,912 $3,786 $10,460 $4,921 $6,398 $8,317 $10,812 $30,448
Amortization of operating lease right-of-use assets $3,172 $5,353 $6,603 $7,778 $7,978 $27,712 $8,125 $8,212 $8,623 $9,054 $34,013 $9,506 $8,556 $7,700 $6,930 $32,693
Amortization of deferred commissions $5,674 $3,206 $3,686 $4,516 $5,578 $16,986 $7,226 $6,840 $6,156 $5,540 $25,762 $5,263 $4,474 $3,803 $3,232 $16,772
Stock-based compensation $22,409 $16,016 $18,451 $22,958 $20,974 $78,399 $20,445 $18,204 $28,924 $35,206 $102,779 $42,555 $49,338 $57,922 $65,671 $215,487
Net accretion of discounts on investments ($5,011) ($2,495) ($1,748) ($906) ($310) ($5,459) ($53) $279 $0 $0 $226 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Impairment of a strategic investment $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,500 $0 $0 $2,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other $221 $194 $753 $329 $200 $1,476 ($175) $1,724 $0 $0 $1,549 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Changes in Assets & Liabilities
Accounts Receivable ($51,421) $12,199 ($56,871) $6,479 ($78,676) ($116,869) $82,701 ($55,572) $1,500 ($62,941) ($34,312) $41,351 ($42,790) ($15,500) ($75,529) ($92,469)
Deferred commission expense ($36,344) ($6,562) ($12,718) ($15,724) ($33,591) ($68,595) ($5,544) ($8,722) ($10,903) ($16,354) ($41,522) ($18,000) ($11,339) ($18,500) ($19,625) ($67,463)
Prepaid expenses and other ($9,091) ($2,059) ($3,226) ($3,571) ($1,955) ($10,811) ($8,946) $7,494 ($46,500) $0 ($47,952) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Accounts payable $5,170 $9,853 ($5,853) $6,566 ($9,450) $1,116 ($2,857) $14 ($5,000) $2,000 ($5,843) ($1,429) $21 ($2,500) $3,000 ($908)
Accrued expenses $20,811 ($7,741) $17,218 $4,891 $20,626 $34,994 ($5,155) $16,148 ($8,500) $18,500 $20,993 ($6,572) $4,979 ($4,000) $14,850 $9,258
Operating Lease liabilities ($2,537) $2,978 ($412) ($8,618) ($7,403) ($13,455) ($7,587) ($9,817) ($10,773) ($8,000) ($36,177) ($10,500) ($9,817) ($9,700) ($7,000) ($37,017)
Deferred Revenue $79,631 $15,595 $53,424 $38,716 $115,226 $222,961 ($2,650) $49,405 $93,396 $116,745 $256,897 $87,559 $100,693 $115,797 $133,166 $437,215
Net Cash Used in Operating Activities ($143,982) ($36,663) ($73,353) ($23,750) ($42,792) ($176,558) ($6,592) ($38,685) ($43,842) ($1,132) ($90,251) $29,676 ($22,142) $15,632 $15,098 $38,263
Purchases of PP&E ($2,058) ($1,640) ($9,707) ($3,157) ($4,079) ($18,583) ($2,033) ($4,715) ($19,250) ($18,590) ($44,588) ($15,750) ($14,000) ($14,000) ($13,000) ($56,750)
Capitalization of software development ($1,958) ($557) ($1,064) ($1,319) ($1,325) ($4,265) ($2,189) ($981) ($1,200) ($1,200) ($5,570) ($1,200) ($1,200) ($1,500) ($2,000) ($5,900)
Cash paid for acquisitions, net ($3,250) ($3,064) $0 $0 $0 ($6,035) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Purchase of intangible assets 0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($6,000) ($184) $0 $0 ($6,184) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Investments, net ($358,626) $45,090 $109,143 $23,670 ($10,246) $167,657 ($161,782) ($257,484) $0 $0 ($419,266) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($6,314) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cash Used in Investing Activities ($362,642) $39,643 $95,308 $19,194 ($15,650) $138,495 ($172,004) ($269,399) ($20,450) ($19,790) ($481,643) ($16,950) ($15,200) ($15,500) ($15,000) ($62,650)
Issuance of convertible preferred stock $438,227 $12,719 $0 $11,402 $0 $24,121 $478,573 $0 $0 $0 $478,573 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Proceeds from stock options $5,018 $1,747 $1,425 $23,518 $6,658 $33,739 $11,001 $9,864 $0 $0 $20,865 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Proceeds from repayment of a promissory note $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,090 $0 $0 $2,090 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Repurchase of common stock ($29,644) $0 $0 $0 $0 ($391) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Payments of deferred offering costs $0 $0 $0 $0 ($105) ($2,231) $0 $0 ($2,336) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($600) $0 $0 ($600) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Cash Used In Financing Activates $413,601 $14,466 $1,425 $34,920 $6,658 $57,469 $489,469 $9,123 $0 $0 $498,592 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Change in Cash ($93,023) $17,446 $23,380 $30,364 ($51,784) $19,406 $310,873 ($298,961) ($64,292) ($20,922) ($73,302) $12,726 ($37,342) $132 $98 ($24,387)
Cash, Beginning of Period $215,593 $122,570 $140,016 $163,396 $193,760 $122,570 $141,976 $452,849 $153,888 $89,596 $122,570 $49,268 $61,994 $24,652 $24,784 $122,570
Cash, End of Period $122,570 $140,016 $163,396 $193,760 $141,976 $141,976 $452,849 $153,888 $89,596 $68,674 $49,268 $61,994 $24,652 $24,784 $24,881 $98,183
Free cash flow ($147,998) ($38,860) ($84,124) ($28,226) ($48,196) ($199,406) ($10,814) ($44,381) ($64,292) ($20,922) ($140,409) $12,726 ($37,342) $132 $98 ($24,387)
% FCF margin (153%) (89%) (139%) (39%) (55%) (75%) (10%) (33%) (44%) (12%) (25%) 6% (15%) 0% 0% (2%)
Source: Piper Sandler estimates and Company Filings
(figures in $ thousands)
Rating and Price Target History for: Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) as of 10-09-2020
300
250
200
150
100
Q3 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021
Notes: The boxes on the Rating and Price Target History chart above indicate the date of the fundamental Equity Research Note, the rating and the price
target. Each box represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the
first Note written during the past three years.
Legend:
I: Initiating Coverage
R: Resuming Coverage
T: Transferring Coverage
D: Discontinuing Coverage
S: Suspending Coverage
OW: Overweight
N: Neutral
UW: Underweight
NA: Not Available
UR: Under Review
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [OW] 542 60.90 187 34.50
HOLD [N] 333 37.42 63 18.92
SELL [UW] 15 1.69 1 6.67
Note: Distribution of Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies currently covered by fundamental equity research in each rating category from
which Piper Sandler and its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months. FINRA rules require disclosure
of which ratings most closely correspond with "buy," "hold," and "sell" recommendations. Piper Sandler ratings are not the equivalent of buy, hold or sell,
but instead represent recommended relative weightings. Nevertheless, Overweight corresponds most closely with buy, Neutral with hold and Underweight
with sell. See Stock Rating definitions below.
Analyst Certification
The analyst Brent A. Bracelin, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report, attests to the following:
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company and the subject security. In addition, no part of my
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
Piper Sandler research analysts receive compensation that is based, in part, on overall firm revenues, which include investment banking revenues.
Research Disclosures
Piper Sandler was a registered market maker in the securities of Snowflake Inc. at the time this research report was published.
Piper Sandler expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Snowflake Inc. in the next 3 months.
Piper Sandler has had a client relationship or has received compensation for investment banking services from Snowflake Inc. within the past 12 months.
Piper Sandler was a managing underwriter of a public offering of, or a dealer manager of a tender offer for, the securities of Snowflake Inc. within the
past 12 months.
All statements in this report attributable to Gartner represent Piper Sandler's interpretation of data, research opinion or viewpoints published as part of a
syndicated subscription service by Gartner, Inc., and have not been reviewed by Gartner. Each Gartner publication speaks as of its original publication
date (and not as of the date of this report). The opinions expressed in Gartner publications are not representations of fact, and are subject to change
without notice.
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Rating Definitions
Stock Ratings: Piper Sandler fundamental research ratings are indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend) within the next
12 months. At times analysts may specify a different investment horizon or may include additional investment time horizons for specific stocks.
Stock performance is measured relative to the group of stocks covered by each analyst. Lists of the stocks covered by each are available at
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Overweight (OW): Anticipated to outperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Neutral (N): Anticipated to perform in line relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
Underweight (UW): Anticipated to underperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.