Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Corporate Valuation Concepts
Corporate Valuation Concepts
Corporate Valuation Concepts
1 Contents
BASIC DCF MODEL
2 Consideration and Premium
3 Scenario for Basic DCF
4 Basic DCF
5 DCF Graph
6 Tornado Diagram Basic
7 PE Ratio Analysis
8 PE Simulation
COMPLEX DCF MODEL
9 Complex PE Analysis
10 EV EBITDA Ratio
11 Stable Period and WC
12 Master Scenario
13 Complex DCF
14 EV to EBITDA Engine
15 Tornado Complex
16 Cash Flow
17 Market Value of Debt
18 Options Valuation
19 WACC and Beta
CORPORATE MODEL
20 Scenario Page
21 Cadbury Financials
22 Financial Model Inputs
23 Financial Analysis
24 Verification
25 Price Chart
26 EBIT Margin
27 Tornado Diagram
28 Alternative Corporate Model
ACQUISITON MODEL
29 Simple LBO
30 J-Curve Chart
31 LBO Break Even Chart
32 LBO Summary
33 LBO Model
34 LBO Model Check
INTEGRATED MERGER MODEL
35 Accretion
36 Accretion Chart
37 Transaction Assumptions
38 Consolidation Summary
39 Target Company
40 Buying Company
41 Consolidated
OTHER
42 Deferred Tax Examples
43 Pllug and Circularity Problem
44 Offset Range Names
45 Offset Chart
46 Model Structure
Colour Codes
Date 4-Nov-11
Author
DEL
ODEL
DEL
ODEL
R MODEL
ents\Valuation_Concepts.xls
Year 10
cf + ecf)/(1+wacc)^5
e = dcf/(1+debt rate)^ 5
ue = ecf/(1+ equity rate)^ 5
ebt value = dcf/(1+debt rate)^ 5 x debt rate + equity value = ecf/(1+ equity rate)^ 5 x eq rate)/(debt value = dcf/(1+debt rate)^ 5 + equity
/(1+debt rate)^ 5 + equity value = ecf/(1+ equity rate)^ 5)
Contents
Scenario Number 2
Show Comments
Variable Number 3
Base
Applied Tornado Index Test Sensitivty
1 Growth Rate 6.00% 6.00% 7.50% 0 6.00%
2 EBIT Margin 1.00 1.00 3.00 0 1
3 Cap Exp to Sales 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 1 5.00%
4 A/R Days 40.00 40.00 20.00 0 40
5 A/P Days 30.00 30.00 40.00 0 30
6 Terminal Growth 2.50% 2.50% 3.50% 0 2.50%
7 WACC 8.00% 8.00% 7.00% 0 8.00%
Scenario Analysis
Sensitivity
Enterprise Value 12,530.23 12,530.23
Equity Value 12,530.23 12,530.23
Equity Value per Share 772.13 772.13
Terminal EV/EBITDA Ratio 9.55 9.55
Implied EV/EBITDA Ratio 12.94 12.94
Tornado Analysis
Base
772.13 2
Sensitivity Growth Rate 1 772.13
EBIT Margin 2 772.13
Cap Exp to Sales 3 772.13
A/R Days 4 772.13
A/P Days 5 772.13
Terminal Growth 6 772.13
WACC 7 772.13
✘ Tornado 1
Base Low High Gr Sens Mgn Sens Cap Exp Fixed Adjusted
6.00% 4.00% 7.50% 4.00% 6.00% 6.00% 0.06 6
1 2 3 1 2 1 1 1
5.00% 6.00% 4.00% 5.00% 5.00% 6.00% 0.05 5
40 50 20 40 40 40 40 40
30 20 40 30 30 30 30 30
2.50% 1.50% 3.50% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 0.025 2.5
8.00% 9.00% 7.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 0.08 8
Title
Low vs Bse High vs Bse
A/P Days -10.20 10.20
A/R Days -13.62 27.23
Growth Rate -63.32 51.51
Cap Exp to Sa -62.28 62.28
EBIT Margin -122.34 119.65
Terminal Gr -104.28 150.63
WACC -138.32 200.08
Sensitivty
Base
Low
High
Gr Sens
Mgn Sens
Cap Exp
#N/A
Contents
Assumptions
General Assumptions
Explicit Period 7
Kraft Offer in USD 19,420
Exchange Rate 1.62
Kraft Offer in GBP
Transaction Date 31-Dec-09
Operating Assumptions
Base Revenues 6,000
Revenue Growth 6%
Debt Assumptions
Debt to EBITDA 2.84
EBITDA 800
Net Debt 2,275
Valuation Assumptions
Stable Cap Exp to Depreciation 123%
WACC 8%
Terminal Growth Rate 2.50%
Terminal EV/EBITDA 10.00
Revenue Growth 6% 6% 6%
Plant Balance
Opening Balance 3,300.00 3,618.00
Add: Capital Expenditures 318.00 337.08
Closing Balance 3,300 3,618.00 3,955.08
A/R Balance
Days A/R 40 40 40
Pct of Year 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
Total A/R Balance 657.53 696.99 738.81
Payable Balance
Days Payable 30 30 30
Pct of Year 8.22% 8.22% 8.22%
Total Payable Balance 425.18 431.81 451.56
Calcultion of Value
Shares 16.23
12,530.23
7%
8%
WACC
9%
10%
13,017.66
7%
8%
WACC
9%
10%
Row 0
Col 1
Length 1
Width 7
3 4 5 6 7 8
1 1 1 1 1 0
0 0 0 0 1 0
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
40 40 40 40 40 40
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
783.13 830.12 879.93 932.72 988.69 1,048.01
30 30 30 30 30 30
8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22%
472.17 499.88 529.26 560.40 593.40 628.39
- - - - 18,020.31 -
700.25 755.63 808.45 864.45 18,944.12 -
EV/EBITDA
8.5 8.75 9 9.25 9.5
12,089.14 12,379.35 12,669.56 12,959.77 13,249.97
11,378.59 11,651.77 11,924.94 12,198.12 12,471.30
10,713.58 10,970.87 11,228.17 11,485.46 11,742.76
10,090.77 10,333.24 10,575.70 10,818.17 11,060.63
12,530.23
9 10 11 12 13 14
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
40 40 40 40 40 40
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
1,110.89 1,177.54 1,248.20 1,323.09 1,402.47 1,486.62
30 30 30 30 30 30
8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22%
665.48 704.79 746.47 790.64 837.46 887.09
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
40 40 40 40 40
11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
1,575.82 1,670.37 1,770.59 1,876.83 1,989.44
30 30 30 30 30
8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22%
939.70 995.47 1,054.58 1,117.24 1,183.66
800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
WACC
Terminal Growth
EBIT Margin
A/P Days
-200.00 -150.00 -100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00
Contents
Re
Growth Rate Analysis set
Explicit Period 6 Col
Cash Flow 100 ou
rs
Growth 3%
WACC 10%
Period 0 1 2 3 4
Explicit Period Switch 1 1 1 1
Terminal Switch 0 0 0 0
Demonstration that should not adjust growth rate in Gordon's model when appling a mid year co
Value of Total Cash Flow - EOY 1,471.43
Reconcilation of EV/EBITDA Ratio and P/E Ratio (Demonstrates that understanding of P/E is relev
Assumptions
Tax Rate 0%
Net Debt 0
Depreciation Rate 0%
Income Statement
EBITDA 100
Less: Depreciation and Amortisation 0
EBIT 100
Less: Intnterest Expense 0
EBT 100
Less: Taxes 0
Earnings 100
Ratios
EV/EBITDA 10.00
P/E 10.00
Growth Rate
0.05 2% 2% 4%
15 2.98% 2.98% 3.29%
14 3.33% 3.33% 3.53%
12 4.22% 4.22% 4.11%
P/E Ratio 11 4.79% 4.79% 4.49%
Show Comments
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19.37
14.28
11.00
0.8569477
g = ROE x (1-Payout)
g/ROE = 1 - Payout ROE
Payout = 1 - g/ROE
25.44 26.20 26.99 27.80 28.63 29.49 30.37 31.28 32.22
1.53 1.57 1.62 1.67 1.72 1.77 1.82 1.88 1.93
0.76 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.86 0.88 0.91 0.94 0.97
26.20 26.99 27.80 28.63 29.49 30.37 31.28 32.22 33.19
nt P/E Ratios
5%
3.44%
3.62%
4.06%
4.34%
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
120,485.26 124,099.82
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
471,391.87 488,301.26
8,761,965,476,980,490,000,000.00 10,724,645,743,824,100,000,000.00
1858743459656900000.00% 2196317452034630000.00%
26,436.57 27,229.67
1,586.19 1,633.78
793.10 816.89
27,229.67 28,046.56
0.03 0.03
242 243
0 0
0 0
127,822.82 131,657.50
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
505,817.21 523,961.48
13,126,966,390,440,700,000,000.00 16,067,406,861,899,500,000,000.00
2595199636103780000.00% 3066524442991580000.00%
28,046.56 28,887.96
1,682.79 1,733.28
841.40 866.64
28,887.96 29,754.59
0.03 0.03
244 245
0 0
0 0
135,607.22 139,675.44
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
542,756.61 562,225.94
19,666,505,998,964,900,000,000.00 24,071,803,342,733,100,000,000.00
3623448473344650000.00% 4281517751795650000.00%
29,754.59 30,647.23
1,785.28 1,838.83
892.64 919.42
30,647.23 31,566.65
0.03 0.03
246 247
0 0
0 0
143,865.70 148,181.68
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
582,393.66 603,284.82
29,463,887,291,505,300,000,000.00 36,063,798,044,802,500,000,000.00
5059101680013760000.00% 5977905801741410000.00%
31,566.65 32,513.65
1,894.00 1,950.82
947.00 975.41
32,513.65 33,489.06
0.03 0.03
248 249
0 0
0 0
152,627.13 157,205.94
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
624,925.37 647,342.19
44,142,088,806,838,200,000,000.00 54,029,916,699,570,000,000,000.00
7063577693183760000.00% 8346422891626790000.00%
33,489.06 34,493.73
2,009.34 2,069.62
1,004.67 1,034.81
34,493.73 35,528.54
0.03 0.03
250 251
0 0
0 0
161,922.12 166,779.78
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
670,563.13 694,617.03
66,132,618,040,273,600,000,000.00 80,946,324,481,294,900,000,000.00
9862250846776310000.00% 11653374508775000000.00%
35,528.54 36,594.40
2,131.71 2,195.66
1,065.86 1,097.83
36,594.40 37,692.23
0.03 0.03
Contents
P/E = (1-g/r)/(k-g)
Show Comments
1 6% 0.50 3%
Independent Variables
2
18
82
114
130
146
162
178
194
210
226
242
258
274
290
34
50
66
98
43 13.64 15.44
Column M
44 13.99 15.84 Column N
45 14.29 16.15
46 8.33 7.86
47 9.52 9.80
48 10.42 11.22
49 11.11 12.28
50 11.67 13.09
51 12.12 13.72
52 12.50 14.22
53 12.82 14.62
54 13.10 14.94
55 7.69 6.65
56 8.79 8.59
57 9.62 10.00
58 10.26 11.06
59 10.77 11.87
60 11.19 12.51
61 11.54 13.01
62 11.83 13.41
63 12.09 13.72
64 7.14 5.43
65 8.16 7.37
66 8.93 8.79
67 9.52 9.85
68 10.00 10.66
69 10.39 11.29
70 10.71 11.79
71 10.99 12.19
72 11.22 12.51
73 6.67 4.22
74 7.62 6.16
75 8.33 7.57
76 8.89 8.63
77 9.33 9.44
78 9.70 10.08
79 10.00 10.58
80 10.26 10.97
81 10.48 11.29
82 6.25 3.00
83 7.14 4.94
84 7.81 6.35
85 8.33 7.41
86 8.75 8.23
87 9.09 8.86
88 9.37 9.36
89 9.62 9.76
90 9.82 10.07
91 13.30 12.74
92 17.10 15.39
93 19.95 17.33
94 22.17 18.80
95 23.94 19.94
96 25.39 20.84
97 26.60 21.57
98 27.62 22.15
99 28.50 22.63
100 11.10 11.53
101 14.27 14.17
102 16.65 16.11
103 18.50 17.58
104 19.98 18.73
105 21.20 19.63
106 22.20 20.35
107 23.06 20.94
108 23.79 21.42
109 9.52 10.31
110 12.24 12.96
111 14.28 14.90
112 15.87 16.37
113 17.14 17.51
114 18.18 18.41
115 19.04 19.14
116 19.78 19.72
117 20.40 20.20
118 8.33 9.10
119 10.71 11.74
120 12.50 13.68
121 13.89 15.15
122 15.00 16.29
123 15.91 17.20
124 16.67 17.92
125 17.31 18.51
126 17.86 18.99
127 7.41 7.88
128 9.52 10.53
129 11.11 12.47
130 12.35 13.94
131 13.33 15.08
132 14.14 15.98
133 14.81 16.71
134 15.38 17.29
135 15.87 17.77
136 6.67 6.67
137 8.57 9.31
138 10.00 11.25
139 11.11 12.72
140 12.00 13.86
141 12.73 14.77
142 13.33 15.49
143 13.85 16.08
144 14.29 16.56
145 6.06 5.45
146 7.79 8.10
147 9.09 10.04
148 10.10 11.51
149 10.91 12.65
150 11.57 13.55
151 12.12 14.28
152 12.59 14.86
153 12.99 15.34
154 5.56 4.24
155 7.14 6.88
156 8.33 8.82
157 9.26 10.29
158 10.00 11.43
159 10.61 12.34
160 11.11 13.06
161 11.54 13.65
162 11.90 14.12
163 5.13 3.02
164 6.59 5.67
165 7.69 7.61
166 8.55 9.08
167 9.23 10.22
168 9.79 11.12
169 10.26 11.85
170 10.65 12.43
171 10.99 12.91
172 4.76 1.81
173 6.12 4.45
174 7.14 6.39
175 7.94 7.86
176 8.57 9.00
177 9.09 9.91
178 9.52 10.63
179 9.89 11.22
180 10.20 11.69
181 10.80 11.55
182 18.51 14.90
183 24.29 17.36
184 28.79 19.24
185 32.39 20.71
186 35.33 21.89
187 37.78 22.83
188 39.86 23.61
189 41.64 24.25
190 8.26 10.33
191 14.16 13.68
192 18.59 16.15
193 22.03 18.03
194 24.78 19.50
195 27.03 20.67
196 28.91 21.62
197 30.50 22.40
198 31.86 23.04
199 6.65 9.12
200 11.40 12.46
201 14.96 14.93
202 17.73 16.81
203 19.95 18.28
204 21.76 19.46
205 23.27 20.40
206 24.55 21.18
207 25.64 21.82
208 5.55 7.90
209 9.52 11.25
210 12.49 13.72
211 14.80 15.60
212 16.65 17.07
213 18.17 18.24
214 19.43 19.19
215 20.50 19.96
216 21.41 20.60
217 4.76 6.69
218 8.16 10.03
219 10.71 12.50
220 12.70 14.38
221 14.28 15.85
222 15.58 17.03
223 16.66 17.97
224 17.58 18.75
225 18.36 19.39
226 4.17 5.47
227 7.14 8.82
228 9.37 11.29
229 11.11 13.17
230 12.50 14.64
231 13.64 15.81
232 14.58 16.76
233 15.38 17.53
234 16.07 18.17
235 3.70 4.26
236 6.35 7.60
237 8.33 10.07
238 9.88 11.95
239 11.11 13.42
240 12.12 14.59
241 12.96 15.54
242 13.67 16.32
243 14.29 16.96
244 3.33 3.04
245 5.71 6.39
246 7.50 8.86
247 8.89 10.74
248 10.00 12.21
249 10.91 13.38
250 11.67 14.33
251 12.31 15.10
252 12.86 15.74
253 3.03 1.82
254 5.19 5.17
255 6.82 7.64
256 8.08 9.52
257 9.09 10.99
258 9.92 12.16
259 10.61 13.11
260 11.19 13.89
261 11.69 14.53
262 2.78 0.61
263 4.76 3.96
264 6.25 6.42
265 7.41 8.31
266 8.33 9.78
267 9.09 10.95
268 9.72 11.90
269 10.26 12.67
270 10.71 13.31
271 14.81 15.14
272 15.87 16.37
273 16.67 17.26
274 17.28 17.91
275 17.78 18.39
276 18.18 18.76
277 18.52 19.03
278 18.80 19.24
279 19.05 19.39
280 13.33 13.92
281 14.29 15.16
282 15.00 16.04
283 15.56 16.69
284 16.00 17.18
285 16.36 17.54
286 16.67 17.82
287 16.92 18.03
288 17.14 18.18
289 12.12 12.71
290 12.99 13.94
291 13.64 14.83
292 14.14 15.48
293 14.55 15.96
294 14.88 16.33
295 15.15 16.60
296 15.38 16.81
297 15.58 16.96
298 11.11 11.49
299 11.90 12.73
300 12.50 13.61
301 12.96 14.26
302 13.33 14.75
303 13.64 15.11
304 13.89 15.39
305 14.10 15.60
306 14.29 15.75
307 10.26 10.28
308 10.99 11.51
309 11.54 12.40
310 11.97 13.05
311 12.31 13.53
312 12.59 13.90
313 12.82 14.17
314 13.02 14.38
315 13.19 14.53
316 9.52 9.06
317 10.20 10.30
318 10.71 11.18
319 11.11 11.83
320 11.43 12.32
321 11.69 12.68
322 11.90 12.96
323 12.09 13.16
324 12.24 13.32
325 8.89 7.85
326 9.52 9.08
327 10.00 9.97
328 10.37 10.61
329 10.67 11.10
330 10.91 11.47
331 11.11 11.74
332 11.28 11.95
333 11.43 12.10
334 8.33 6.63
335 8.93 7.87
336 9.37 8.75
337 9.72 9.40
338 10.00 9.88
339 10.23 10.25
340 10.42 10.53
341 10.58 10.73
342 10.71 10.89
343 7.84 5.41
344 8.40 6.65
345 8.82 7.53
346 9.15 8.18
347 9.41 8.67
348 9.63 9.04
349 9.80 9.31
350 9.95 9.52
351 10.08 9.67
352 7.41 4.20
353 7.94 5.44
354 8.33 6.32
355 8.64 6.97
356 8.89 7.45
357 9.09 7.82
358 9.26 8.10
359 9.40 8.30
360 9.52 8.46
361 15.15 16.33
362 15.58 16.87
363 15.91 17.22
364 16.16 17.46
365 16.36 17.62
366 16.53 17.71
367 16.67 17.77
368 16.78 17.78
369 16.88 17.78
370 13.89 15.12
371 14.29 15.65
372 14.58 16.01
373 14.81 16.25
374 15.00 16.40
375 15.15 16.50
376 15.28 16.55
377 15.38 16.57
378 15.48 16.56
379 12.82 13.90
380 13.19 14.44
381 13.46 14.79
382 13.68 15.03
383 13.85 15.19
384 13.99 15.28
385 14.10 15.34
386 14.20 15.35
387 14.29 15.34
388 11.90 12.69
389 12.24 13.22
390 12.50 13.58
391 12.70 13.82
392 12.86 13.97
393 12.99 14.07
394 13.10 14.12
395 13.19 14.14
396 13.27 14.13
397 11.11 11.47
398 11.43 12.01
399 11.67 12.36
400 11.85 12.60
401 12.00 12.76
402 12.12 12.85
403 12.22 12.91
404 12.31 12.92
405 12.38 12.91
406 10.42 10.26
407 10.71 10.79
408 10.94 11.15
409 11.11 11.38
410 11.25 11.54
411 11.36 11.64
412 11.46 11.69
413 11.54 11.71
414 11.61 11.70
415 9.80 9.04
416 10.08 9.57
417 10.29 9.93
418 10.46 10.17
419 10.59 10.33
420 10.70 10.42
421 10.78 10.47
422 10.86 10.49
423 10.92 10.48
424 9.26 7.83
425 9.52 8.36
426 9.72 8.72
427 9.88 8.95
428 10.00 9.11
429 10.10 9.21
430 10.19 9.26
431 10.26 9.28
432 10.32 9.27
433 8.77 6.61
434 9.02 7.14
435 9.21 7.50
436 9.36 7.74
437 9.47 7.90
438 9.57 7.99
439 9.65 8.04
440 9.72 8.06
441 9.77 8.05
442 8.33 5.40
443 8.57 5.93
444 8.75 6.28
445 8.89 6.52
446 9.00 6.68
447 9.09 6.78
448 9.17 6.83
449 9.23 6.85
450 9.29 6.84
451 15.38 17.53
452 15.38 17.36
453 15.38 17.19
454 15.38 17.02
455 15.38 16.84
456 15.38 16.67
457 15.38 16.50
458 15.38 16.33
459 15.38 16.16
460 14.29 16.32
461 14.29 16.14
462 14.29 15.97
463 14.29 15.80
464 14.29 15.63
465 14.29 15.46
466 14.29 15.28
467 14.29 15.11
468 14.29 14.94
469 13.33 15.10
470 13.33 14.93
471 13.33 14.76
472 13.33 14.58
473 13.33 14.41
474 13.33 14.24
475 13.33 14.07
476 13.33 13.90
477 13.33 13.73
478 12.50 13.88
479 12.50 13.71
480 12.50 13.54
481 12.50 13.37
482 12.50 13.20
483 12.50 13.03
484 12.50 12.85
485 12.50 12.68
486 12.50 12.51
487 11.76 12.67
488 11.76 12.50
489 11.76 12.33
490 11.76 12.15
491 11.76 11.98
492 11.76 11.81
493 11.76 11.64
494 11.76 11.47
495 11.76 11.30
496 11.11 11.45
497 11.11 11.28
498 11.11 11.11
499 11.11 10.94
500 11.11 10.77
501 11.11 10.60
502 11.11 10.42
503 11.11 10.25
504 11.11 10.08
505 10.53 10.24
506 10.53 10.07
507 10.53 9.90
508 10.53 9.72
509 10.53 9.55
510 10.53 9.38
511 10.53 9.21
512 10.53 9.04
513 10.53 8.86
514 10.00 9.02
515 10.00 8.85
516 10.00 8.68
517 10.00 8.51
518 10.00 8.34
519 10.00 8.16
520 10.00 7.99
521 10.00 7.82
522 10.00 7.65
523 9.52 7.81
524 9.52 7.64
525 9.52 7.46
526 9.52 7.29
527 9.52 7.12
528 9.52 6.95
529 9.52 6.78
530 9.52 6.61
531 9.52 6.43
532 9.09 6.59
533 9.09 6.42
534 9.09 6.25
535 9.09 6.08
536 9.09 5.91
537 9.09 5.73
538 9.09 5.56
539 9.09 5.39
540 9.09 5.22
ns Using LINEST Function in Excel
ROE Intercept
66.86 16.23
4.65 0.65
#N/A #N/A
14.39 25.09
Column N
Column M
290
306
322
338
354
370
386
402
418
ated and Predicted P/E Ratio
434
450
466
482
498
514
530
Contents
Complex Model with Transition Periods and Sensitivity Show Comments
Scenario Number 1.00
1 2
Model
Drivers Base Low
Short-term 5 5 3
Fade Period 3 3 2
Scenario Analysis
Base Low
1.00 2.00
Value per Share 32.84 32.84 23.20
P/E Ratio 17.30 17.30 11.41
Market to Book Ratio 1.45 1.45 1.03
Value vs Base
Period 0 1 2 3
Short-term Period 1 1 1
Long-term Period 0 0 0
Transition Period 0 0 0
Inflation Rate 0.015 0.015 0.015
Add: Real Interest Rate 0.010 0.010 0.010
Risk Free Rate 0.025 0.025 0.025
D
4 5
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Short-run Short-run Short-run Short-run Lon-run Long-run
High Inf Sens Risk Prm Return Growth Inf Sens Risk Prm
7 5 5 5 5 5 5
4 3 3 3 3 3 3
ario Analysis
Short-run Short-run Short-run Short-run Lon-run Long-run
High Inf Sens Risk Prm Return Growth Inf Sens Risk Prm
3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00
104.38 32.84 32.52 31.50 31.45 32.85 30.96
61.58 16.33 15.99 18.84 16.57 17.30 16.31
4.62 1.45 1.44 1.39 1.39 1.45 1.37
Sensitivity Analysis
Short-run Inf S Short-run Risk Short-run RetuShort-run Gro Lon-run Inf Se Long-run Risk
0.00 -0.32 -1.34 -1.39 0.01 -1.88
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 1 1 1 0 0
0.015 0.015 0.017 0.019 0.022 0.025 0.025
0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010
0.025 0.025 0.027 0.029 0.032 0.035 0.035
Value vs Base
Long- Term
Short- Term
Real Interest
Long-run Growth
Long-run Return
Long-run Risk Prm Value vs Base
-9.00 -8.00 -7.00 -6.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00
10 11 12 13 14
Long-run Long-run Real Short- Long-
Return Growth Interest Term Term
5 5 5 3 5
3 3 3 3 2
tivity Analysis
Long-run Retu Long-run GrowReal Interest Short- Term Long- Term
-8.13 -2.21 -1.31 -0.88 -0.17
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.025 0.025 0.025 0.025 0.025 0.025 0.025 0.025
0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010
0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035
0.030 0.030
0.065 0.065
0.010 0.010
0.075 0.075
0.010 0.010
0.035 0.035
0.530 0.530
149,191.226 154,450.217
11,189.342 11,583.766
5,930.351 6,139.396
154,450.217 159,894.587
0.000 0.000
Contents
Inputs Show Comments
Assumptions
Inflation Rate 2.00% Enterprise Value
Real Interest Rate 1.00% EBITDA
Risk Premium 2.00% EV/EBITDA
WACC 5.08%
ROIC above WACC 1.00%
ROIC 6.08%
Real Growth Rate 3.00%
Nominal Growth Rate 5.06%
Lifetime of Investment 15
Stable Ratio Cap Exp to Depreciation 145% ROIC = NOPLAT/Inv Capital
Deprecation Rate on Net Plant 11% NOPLAT = EBIT x (1-tax)
Tax Rate 25%
Initial Invested Capital 1,000
Tax Life 10
Stable Ratio of Deferred Tax to Cap Exp 2.02%
PLAT/Inv Capital
EBIT x (1-tax)
Period Switches
Period 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00
Short-term Period 1 1 1
Long-term Period 0 0 0
Terminal Period 0 0 0
Stable Period 0 0 0
Error ($9,700.80)
Percent Error -20.3%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
34,581 35,618 36,687 37,787 38,921 40,089 41,291 42,530
28,702 29,563 30,450 31,363 32,304 33,274 34,272 35,300
5,879 6,055 6,237 6,424 6,617 6,815 7,020 7,230
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
43,806 45,120 46,474 47,868 49,304 50,783 52,307 53,876
36,359 37,450 38,573 39,730 40,922 42,150 43,414 44,717
7,447 7,670 7,901 8,138 8,382 8,633 8,892 9,159
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
55,492 57,157 58,871 60,638 62,457 64,330 66,260 68,248
46,058 47,440 48,863 50,329 51,839 53,394 54,996 56,646
9,434 9,717 10,008 10,308 10,618 10,936 11,264 11,602
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
70,296 72,404 74,577 76,814 79,118 81,492 83,937 86,455
58,345 60,096 61,899 63,756 65,668 67,638 69,667 71,757
11,950 12,309 12,678 13,058 13,450 13,854 14,269 14,697
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
89,048 91,720 94,471 97,306 100,225 103,231 106,328 109,518
73,910 76,127 78,411 80,764 83,187 85,682 88,253 90,900
15,138 15,592 16,060 16,542 17,038 17,549 18,076 18,618
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
112,804 116,188 119,674 123,264 126,962 130,771 134,694 138,734
93,627 96,436 99,329 102,309 105,378 108,540 111,796 115,150
19,177 19,752 20,345 20,955 21,583 22,231 22,898 23,585
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
142,896 147,183 151,599 156,147 160,831 165,656 170,626 175,745
118,604 122,162 125,827 129,602 133,490 137,495 141,619 145,868
24,292 25,021 25,772 26,545 27,341 28,162 29,006 29,877
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
181,017 186,447 192,041 197,802 203,736 209,848 216,144 222,628
150,244 154,751 159,394 164,176 169,101 174,174 179,399 184,781
30,773 31,696 32,647 33,626 34,635 35,674 36,744 37,847
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
229,307 236,186 243,272 250,570 258,087 265,830 273,804 282,019
190,325 196,034 201,915 207,973 214,212 220,639 227,258 234,075
38,982 40,152 41,356 42,597 43,875 45,191 46,547 47,943
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
290,479 299,193 308,169 317,414 326,937 336,745 346,847 357,253
241,098 248,331 255,781 263,454 271,358 279,498 287,883 296,520
49,381 50,863 52,389 53,960 55,579 57,247 58,964 60,733
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
367,970 379,009 390,380 402,091 414,154 426,578 439,376 452,557
305,415 314,578 324,015 333,736 343,748 354,060 364,682 375,622
62,555 64,432 66,365 68,355 70,406 72,518 74,694 76,935
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
466,134 480,118 494,521 509,357 524,638 540,377 556,588 573,286
386,891 398,498 410,453 422,766 435,449 448,513 461,968 475,827
79,243 81,620 84,069 86,591 89,188 91,864 94,620 97,459
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
590,484 608,199 626,445 645,238 664,595 684,533 705,069 726,221
490,102 504,805 519,949 535,548 551,614 568,162 585,207 602,764
100,382 103,394 106,496 109,690 112,981 116,371 119,862 123,458
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
748,008 770,448 793,561 817,368 841,889 867,146 893,160 919,955
620,846 639,472 658,656 678,416 698,768 719,731 741,323 763,563
127,161 130,976 134,905 138,953 143,121 147,415 151,837 156,392
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
947,554 975,980 1,005,260 1,035,418 1,066,480 1,098,475 1,131,429 1,165,372
786,470 810,064 834,366 859,397 885,179 911,734 939,086 967,258
161,084 165,917 170,894 176,021 181,302 186,741 192,343 198,113
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
1,200,333 1,236,343 1,273,433 1,311,636 1,350,985 1,391,515 1,433,260 1,476,258
996,276 1,026,165 1,056,949 1,088,658 1,121,318 1,154,957 1,189,606 1,225,294
204,057 210,178 216,484 222,978 229,667 236,558 243,654 250,964
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
1,520,546 1,566,162 1,613,147 1,661,541 1,711,388 1,762,729 1,815,611 1,870,079
1,262,053 1,299,915 1,338,912 1,379,079 1,420,452 1,463,065 1,506,957 1,552,166
258,493 266,248 274,235 282,462 290,936 299,664 308,654 317,913
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
1,926,182 1,983,967 2,043,486 2,104,791 2,167,935 2,232,973 2,299,962 2,368,961
1,598,731 1,646,693 1,696,094 1,746,976 1,799,386 1,853,367 1,908,968 1,966,237
327,451 337,274 347,393 357,814 368,549 379,605 390,994 402,723
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
2,440,029 2,513,230 2,588,627 2,666,286 2,746,275 2,828,663 2,913,523 3,000,928
2,025,224 2,085,981 2,148,561 2,213,017 2,279,408 2,347,790 2,418,224 2,490,771
414,805 427,249 440,067 453,269 466,867 480,873 495,299 510,158
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
3,090,956 3,183,685 3,279,196 3,377,571 3,478,899 3,583,266 3,690,763 3,801,486
2,565,494 2,642,459 2,721,732 2,803,384 2,887,486 2,974,110 3,063,334 3,155,234
525,463 541,226 557,463 574,187 591,413 609,155 627,430 646,253
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
3,915,531 4,032,997 4,153,987 4,278,606 4,406,965 4,539,174 4,675,349 4,815,609
3,249,891 3,347,387 3,447,809 3,551,243 3,657,781 3,767,514 3,880,539 3,996,956
665,640 685,609 706,178 727,363 749,184 771,660 794,809 818,654
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
4,960,078 5,108,880 5,262,146 5,420,011 5,582,611 5,750,089 5,922,592 6,100,270
4,116,864 4,240,370 4,367,581 4,498,609 4,633,567 4,772,574 4,915,751 5,063,224
843,213 868,510 894,565 921,402 949,044 977,515 1,006,841 1,037,046
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
6,283,278 6,471,776 6,665,929 6,865,907 7,071,885 7,284,041 7,502,562 7,727,639
5,215,121 5,371,574 5,532,721 5,698,703 5,869,664 6,045,754 6,227,127 6,413,940
1,068,157 1,100,202 1,133,208 1,167,204 1,202,220 1,238,287 1,275,436 1,313,699
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
7,959,468 8,198,252 8,444,200 8,697,526 8,958,452 9,227,205 9,504,021 9,789,142
6,606,359 6,804,549 7,008,686 7,218,947 7,435,515 7,658,580 7,888,338 8,124,988
1,353,110 1,393,703 1,435,514 1,478,579 1,522,937 1,568,625 1,615,684 1,664,154
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
10,082,816 10,385,301 10,696,860 11,017,766 11,348,299 11,688,748 12,039,410 12,400,592
8,368,738 8,619,800 8,878,394 9,144,745 9,419,088 9,701,660 9,992,710 10,292,492
1,714,079 1,765,501 1,818,466 1,873,020 1,929,211 1,987,087 2,046,700 2,108,101
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
12,772,610 13,155,788 13,550,462 13,956,976 14,375,685 14,806,956 15,251,164 15,708,699
10,601,266 10,919,304 11,246,883 11,584,290 11,931,819 12,289,773 12,658,466 13,038,220
2,171,344 2,236,484 2,303,579 2,372,686 2,443,866 2,517,182 2,592,698 2,670,479
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
16,179,960 16,665,359 17,165,320 17,680,279 18,210,688 18,757,008 19,319,719 19,899,310
13,429,367 13,832,248 14,247,215 14,674,632 15,114,871 15,568,317 16,035,367 16,516,428
2,750,593 2,833,111 2,918,104 3,005,648 3,095,817 3,188,691 3,284,352 3,382,883
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
20,496,290 21,111,178 21,744,514 22,396,849 23,068,755 23,760,817 24,473,642 25,207,851
17,011,920 17,522,278 18,047,946 18,589,385 19,147,066 19,721,478 20,313,123 20,922,516
3,484,369 3,588,900 3,696,567 3,807,464 3,921,688 4,039,339 4,160,519 4,285,335
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
25,964,086 26,743,009 27,545,299 28,371,658 29,222,808 30,099,492 31,002,477 31,932,551
21,550,192 22,196,698 22,862,598 23,548,476 24,254,931 24,982,579 25,732,056 26,504,018
4,413,895 4,546,312 4,682,701 4,823,182 4,967,877 5,116,914 5,270,421 5,428,534
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
32,890,528 33,877,244 34,893,561 35,940,368 37,018,579 38,129,136 39,273,010 40,451,201
27,299,138 28,118,112 28,961,656 29,830,505 30,725,421 31,647,183 32,596,599 33,574,497
5,591,390 5,759,131 5,931,905 6,109,863 6,293,158 6,481,953 6,676,412 6,876,704
Sensitivity/Scenario Inputs
Applied Tornado Index Test
1 Growth Rate 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 1
2 EBIT Margin 1.00 1.00 3.00 0
3 Cap Exp to Sales 5.00% 5.00% 4.00% 0
4 A/R Days 40.00 40.00 20.00 0
5 A/P Days 30.00 30.00 40.00 0
6 Terminal Growth Real 1.00% 1.00% 2.00% 0
7 Long-run ROIC vs WACC 1.00% 1.00% 2.00% 0
8 Long-run Risk Premium 2.00% 2.00% 1.50% 0
9 WACC 8.00% 8.00% 7.00% 0
10 Long-term Real Rf 1.50% 1.50% 1.00% 0
Scenario Analysis
Tornado Analysis
Err:522
Sensitivity Growth Rate 1
EBIT Margin 2
Cap Exp to Sales 3
A/R Days 4
A/P Days 5
Terminal Growth 6
Long-run ROIC vs WACC 7
Long-run Risk Premium 8
WACC 9
Long-term Risk Free Rate 10
Tornado 1
Show Comments ✘
Match Title
Low vs Bse High vs Bse
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
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Sensitivity
Base
Low
High
Gr Sens
Mgn Sens
Cap Exp
#N/A
Contents
Assumptions Sensitivity
General Assumptions
Explicit Period 7
Fade Period 3
Kraft Offer in USD 19,420
Exchange Rate 1.62
Kraft Offer in GBP
Transaction Date 31-Dec-09
Operating Assumptions
Base Revenues 6,000
Revenue Growth 7.00%
Scenario 1.00
EBIT Margin Yr Mgn
1.00 14%
2.00 15%
3.00 16%
Valuation Assumptions
ROIC above WACC - Long-run 1.00% Goes to EV/EBITDA
Risk Premium - Long- Run 2.00% Goes to EV/EBITDA
Long-term Inflation Rate 1.50%
Real Risk Free Rate 1.50%
Long-term Risk Free Rate 3.00% Goes to EV/EBITDA
Working Analysis
Period Counter 0 1 2
Revenue Growth 7% 7% 7%
Plant Balance
Opening Balance 3,300.00 3,501.00
Add: Capital Expenditures 321.00 343.47
Less: Retirements on Existing Assets 120.00 127.20
Less: Retirements on New Assets 0.00 0.00
Closing Balance 3,300 3,501.00 3,717.27
Tax Depreciation
Opening Balance 2,867.86 3,068.86
Add: Capital Expenditures 321.00 343.47
Less: Retirements on Existing Assets 120.00 127.20
Less: Retirements on New Assets 0 0
Closing Balance 2,867.86 3,068.86 3,285.13
Payable Balance
Days Payable 30 30 30
Pct of Year 8.22% 8.22% 8.22%
Total Payable Balance 425.18 436.87 461.95
Sensitivity
Sensitivity Err:522
7%
8%
WACC
9%
10%
Show Comments
1 1 1 1 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5%
30 30 30 30 30 30
8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22%
488.40 522.73 559.45 598.74 640.77 675.17
7
11,589.89
sheet; if use market value should probably not add fair value of derivatives
uld be similar to book value
only include surplus cash
ment of other income in EBITDA and free cash flow; if excluded from EBITDA should be in bridge; should be at market value
elling of free cash flow and valuation of debt; if debt at book value and hedges not included in EBITDA/FCF, should include
ket value; if not traded could use M/B ratio or P/E ratio
ment of asset sales in FCF; if asset sales are part of FCF, then should not include because in FCF
basic shares rather and explicitly value options
Margin 16%
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1
1 1 0 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0 0
4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
30 30 30 30 30 30
8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22%
702.82 724.71 741.80 759.36 777.39 795.92
ld be at market value
FCF, should include
15 16 17 18 19
0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
74.74 - - - -
30 30 30 30 30
8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22% 8.22%
814.95 834.50 854.59 876.43 897.71
Stable Relationships
Starting Cap Exp 100 Ratio of Cap Exp to Dep
Growth 3%
Dep Rate on Net Plant
Dep Life 15
Ratio of Def Tax to Cap Exp
Tax Life 10.00
Period 1 2 3
nsitivity
Growth R
Err:522 0% 1%
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11 Err:522 Err:522
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Book Life 13 Err:522 Err:522
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15 Err:522 Err:522
16 Err:522 Err:522
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Growth Rate
2% 3% 4% 5% Err:522
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Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Book Life 13
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11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Growth Rate
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Growth Rate
Err:522 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
10 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
11 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
12 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Book Life 13 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
14 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
15 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
16 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Growth Rate
5% Err:522 0% 1% 2% 3%
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32 33 34 35 36 37 38
ate
4% 5%
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39 40 41 42 43 44 45
46 47 48 49 50 51 52
53 54 55 56 57 58 59
60 61 62 63 64 65 66
67 68 69 70 71 72 73
74 75 76 77 78 79 80
81 82 83 84 85 86 87
88 89 90 91 92 93 94
95 96 97 98 99 100 101
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Low vs Bse
High vs Bse
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10
0
Contents
Par
Value Maturity Interest Rate Market Value Term
Short-term 1189
Long Term 224.01 1
Issue 1 200 1 10.00% 1 215.69 2
Issue 2 100 3 6.00% 2 110.00 3
Issue 3 150 4 7.00% 3 175.39 5
Issue 4 180 6 5.50% 4 204.38 7
Issue 5 200 7 6.00% 5 224.01 10
Issue 6 150 10 6.50% 6 180.42 20
Issue 7 180 15 6.00% 7 220.03
Issue 8 34 2 6.00% 8 36.50
Issue 5 200 7 6%
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Holding Period 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Maturity 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0.500%
0.700%
1.000%
1.500%
2.500%
2.500%
3.500%
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
- - - - - - - - - -
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
- - - - - - - - - -
28 29 30
0 0 0
0 0 0
- - -
Contents
Show Comments
General Assumptions
Option Number 5
Current Price 400
Volatitily 30%
Risk Free Rate 3.50%
455.60
Option Price Model
Inputs
Base Share Price Cur 400.00 p0
Exercise Price Cur 455.60 k
Risk Free Rate % 3.50% rf
Time to Expiration t 1.67 t
Volatility Vol 30.00% Vol
Calculation Components
Present Value Fa e-rt 0.9432 pv
d1 Numerator ln(p0/k)+(rf+vol2/2) x t 0.0034 d1_n
d1 Denominator vol x t1/2 0.3876 d1_d
d1 Value Num/Denom 0.0088 d1
Expiration Total
Pence Pounds Value
5.24 1 109.71 1.10 -
5.66 2 110.92 1.11 204,119.57
6.25 3 94.89 0.95 170,359.97
1.58 4 73.55 0.74 3,102.41
1.67 5 49.96 0.50 112,119.92
2.67 6 49.76 0.50 111,674.09
5.66 7 110.92 1.11 176,239.31
6.25 8 94.89 0.95 129,047.16
2.67 9 49.76 0.50 122,841.25
3.65 10 65.96 0.66 177,623.89
4.36 11 125.73 1.26 375,745.58
5.66 12 110.92 1.11 325,595.50
6.25 13 94.89 0.95 241,910.40
1.67 2,150,379.05
Note:
Call Value = Price x Prob1 - Strike PV x Prob2
Put Value = Stike PV x Prob1 - Price x Prob 2
Norm(d1) = 1 - Norm(-d1)
73
Norm(d1)
Norm(-d1)
1-Norm(-d1)
Contents
Initial Inputs
Eq Beta 1.3 Ba = Be x Eq/Cap + Bd x Debt/Cap
Rf 3% Ba = Be x Eq/Cap
EMRP 6% Ba 0.91
Credit Spread 4%
Debt to Cap
Equity 0.5 12.320% 0.0616
WACC 9.66%
Cost of Debt = Rf + CS
Initial Inputs
Eq Beta 0.70
Rf 5%
EMRP 6%
Tax Rate 30%
Credit Spread 0%
Rf 5.00%
EMRP 6.00%
Bu 0.7
Tax Rate 30%
Tax Shield Debt Cost x D/Cap x T 0.000%
Rate of Return Rf + Bu x EMRP 9.200%
` Rate of Retun Less Tax Shield 9.200%
Bl 0.70
Cost of Equity 9.20%
BU 0.7
Tax 30%
Formula 1
Debt Cost Debt/Cap ROR Ke Bl D/E BL Ke
9.20% 9.200% 0.7
5.200% 0.00% 9.20% 9.20% 0.70 0% 0.49 7.94%
5.300% 5.00% 9.14% 9.43% 0.74 5% 0.52 8.09%
5.300% 10.00% 9.09% 9.69% 0.78 11% 0.54 8.27%
5.300% 15.00% 9.03% 9.97% 0.83 18% 0.58 8.46%
5.300% 20.00% 8.98% 10.29% 0.88 25% 0.61 8.68%
5.300% 25.00% 8.92% 10.66% 0.94 33% 0.65 8.92%
5.500% 30.00% 8.85% 11.00% 1.00 43% 0.70 9.20%
5.600% 35.00% 8.79% 11.41% 1.07 54% 0.75 9.52%
5.700% 40.00% 8.72% 11.88% 1.15 67% 0.82 9.90%
5.800% 45.00% 8.65% 12.41% 1.23 82% 0.89 10.35%
5.900% 50.00% 8.58% 13.03% 1.34 100% 0.98 10.88%
6.000% 55.00% 8.51% 13.77% 1.46 122% 1.09 11.53%
6.100% 60.00% 8.43% 14.67% 1.61 150% 1.23 12.35%
6.300% 65.00% 8.34% 15.64% 1.77 186% 1.40 13.40%
6.500% 70.00% 8.24% 16.87% 1.98 233% 1.63 14.80%
6.900% 75.00% 8.11% 17.96% 2.16 300% 1.96 16.76%
7.300% 80.00% 7.97% 19.43% 2.40 400% 2.45 19.70%
7.700% 85.00% 7.83% 21.63% 2.77 567% 3.27 24.60%
8.100% 90.00% 7.67% 25.66% 3.44 900% 4.90 34.40%
8.500% 95.00% 7.50% 37.04% 5.34 1900% 9.80 63.80%
Show Comments
Be = Ba x Cap/Eq
BL = BU x (1 + D/E) x (1-t)
BU = BL/(1+ D/E) x (1-t)
BL 0.7
EMRP 6%
E/(D+E) 100%
D/(D+E) 0% 0.0%
Rf 5%
T 30%
D/E 0.0%
BU 0.70
WACC 9.20%
MR + Rf) x E /(D+E) - Rf
D+E) - Rf + (BL x ERMR) x E/(D+E)
D/(D+E) x (D+E)/ E
Contents
Show Comments
Variable Number 2
Scenario Number 1 Sensitivity
Scenario Inputs
base
EV/EBITDA 12.63 2.00
Revenue Growth 3.4264631 1 12.63
COGS Margin 0.44 2 12.63
Cap Exp to Depreciation 2.31 3 12.63
Marketing as Pct of Revenue 0.08 4 12.63
R&D Growth Rate 0.08 5 12.63
A/R Percentage 0.47 6 12.63
Inventory Percentage 0.17 7 12.63
A/P Percentage 0.25 8 12.63
WACC 5.43 9 12.63
Terminal Growth 4.30 10 12.63
Show Comments
✘ Tornado 1
Sc Num 1 2 3 4 5 6
Copy Adjust
Scenario & for Spin
Sensitivity Base Bull Bear Rev Sens Margin Sens Cap Exp As Fixed Box etc.
1 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 1
1 1 2 3 1 2 1 1 1
2 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 1
11% 10.50% 10.30% 10.70% 11% 11% 11% 10.50% 10.5
6% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3
20% 23% 18% 30% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23
34% 34% 30% 40% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34
69% 69% 75% 60% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69
8% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8
3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3
bull bear base vs bull base vs bear Total Effect Small Row Num
3.00 4.00
13.60 10.18 0.97 -2.45 3.43 0.08 4.00
13.04 12.60 0.41 -0.03 0.44 0.08 5.00
13.78 11.46 1.14 -1.17 2.31 0.17 7.00
12.67 12.59 0.04 -0.04 0.08 0.25 8.00
12.67 12.59 0.04 -0.04 0.08 0.44 2.00
12.83 12.36 0.20 -0.28 0.47 0.47 6.00
12.70 12.53 0.07 -0.10 0.17 2.31 3.00
12.73 12.48 0.10 -0.15 0.25 3.43 1.00
15.89 10.46 3.26 -2.17 5.43 4.30 10.00
15.21 10.91 2.58 -1.72 4.30 5.43 9.00
Copy Transposed Titles
Adjusted
Column Sensitivity
1 Base
1 Bull
2 Bear
11 Rev Sens
6 Margin Sens
20 Cap Exp
34
69
8
3
Balance Sheet
Assets
Long-term Assets
Goodwill 2,352 2,299
Acquisition intangibles 3,261 3,200
Software intangibles 144 149
Current Assets
Inventories 709 713
Short-term investments 21 47
Trade and other receivables 1,150 1,180
Tax recoverable 30 47
Cash and cash equivalents 325 332
Derivative financial instruments - 67
Current Liabilities
Trade and other payables 1,546 1,543
Tax payable 150 237
Short-term borrowings and overdrafts 610 1,194
Short-term provisions 67 42
Current obligations under finance lease 20 20
Derivative financial instruments - 61
Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale - 291
Non-current trade and other payables 27 32
Borrowings 3,520 3,022
Retirement benefit obligations 485 369
Tax payable 184 138
Deferred tax liabilities 895 954
Long-term provisions 10 11
Non-current obligations under finance leases 66 43
Total Liabilities 7,580 7,957
Equity
Equity attributable to equity holders of the parent 2,071 3,008
Minority interest 229 27
Total Equity 2,300 3,035
Total Equity and Liabilities 9,880 10,992
1 1
Net Debt
Long and Short-term Debt
Less Cash
Add: Pension Obligations
Add: Minority Interest
Total Net Debt
Penison Back-up
Present value of defined benefit obligation (2,372) (2,666)
Fair value of scheme assets 1,887 2,297
(Deficit)/surplus (485) (369)
Americas 10.0%
Asia Pacific 8.0%
Europe, ME and Africa 4.0%
Britan, ME and Africa
Revenues by Area
Americas 1,093
Asia Pacific 1,050
Europe, ME and Africa 2,173
Britan, ME and Africa
Debt Issues
Total Long-term Debt, Current Obligations and Lease Obligations
Issue by Issue
Issue 1
Issue 2
Issue 3
Total
Check
EBITDA
Cash Operating Income = EBITDA 1,147 1,241
Less: Depreciation and Amortisation (207) (200)
EBIT 940 1,041
Tax Rate
Effective Tax Rate = Tax/EBT -2% -3%
Weighted Average Marginal Tax 28% 28%
Invested Capital
Equity Captial Including Minority Interest 2,300 3,035
Add: Long-term Debt and Financial Leases 3,586 3,065
Add: Pension Obligations 485 369
Add: Short-term Borrowings 630 1,214
Less: Surplus Cash and Investments 346 379
Less: Net Assets Discontinued 5 654
Less: Other Investments and Associates 335 374
Total Invested Capital 6,315 6,276
EV/EBITDA
Equity Market Cap 12,248.65 12,643.82
Earnings 544.00 773.00
Historic P/E 22.52 16.36
Net Debt
Long-term and Short-term Borrowings 4,216 4,279
Add: Pension Obligations 485 369
Add: Net Fair of Derivatives - (6)
Less: Surplus Cash 346 379
Less: Net Assets Discontinued - Market 5 654
Less: Other Investments - Market 335 374
Add: Minority Intererst 229 27
Total Net Debt 4,244 3,262
22 32 28
170 124 181
- 223 17
54 50 28
2 2 2
22 71 270
2,383
(498)
258
12
2,155
(49) 55 (25)
38 152 222
82 11 (585)
1,372
860
879
1,579
1194
1
27% 41% 8%
28% 28% 28%
Historic Analysis/Assumptions
Financing Assumptions
WACC 8%
7% 6.50% 5.50% 5% 5%
7% 6% 5% 4% 4%
7% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6%
27% 41% 8%
28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
27% 41% 8% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
EV/EBITDA
Value Drivers
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0 0 0 0 0
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Working Analysis
Revenues
Base Revenues 6,012.00 6,432.00
Revenue Growth 7.37%
COGS
Margin 36.58% 42.02%
COGS 2,199.00 2,703.00
Marketing Costs
Pct of Sales 11.03% 10.57%
Total Marketing Costs 663.00 680.00
Distribution Costs
Pct of Sales 6.02% 6.62%
Total Distribution Costs 362.00 426.00
Maintenance Costs
Pct of Plant 2.68% 2.75%
Total Plant 2,874.00 2,982.00
Total Maintenance Cost 77.00 82.00
R&D Costs
Base R&D Costs 58.00
Growth Rate 0.00% 15.52%
R&D Costs 58.00 67.00
Capital Expenditures
Total Revenues 6,012.00 6,432.00
Cap Exp as Pct of Sales 4.74% 4.63%
Total Capital Expenditures 285.00 298.00
Working Capital
A/R
A/R as Pct of Revenues 19% 18%
Total Revenues 6,012.00 6,432.00
Total A/R Balance 1,150.00 1,180.00
Inventory
Inventory as Pct of COGS 32% 26%
Total COGS 2,199.00 2,703.00
Total Inventory 709.00 713.00
A/P
A/P as Pct of COGS 70% 57%
Total A/P 1,546.00 1,543.00
Plant Assets
Opening Balance 2,874.00
Add: Capital Expenditures 298.00
Closing Balance 2,874.00 2,982.00
Accumulated Depreciation
Opening Balance -1,410.00
Add: Depreciation Expense -170.00
Closing Balance -1,410.00 -1,536.00
Intangible Assets
Long-term Debt
Issue 1
Opeing Balance 300
Less: Repayment 0
Closing Balance 300 300
Issue 2
Balance 550
Maturity Date 2015
Interest Rate 6.00%
Issue 3
Balance 344
Maturity Date 2017
Interest Rate 5.50%
NOL Balance
Opening Balance 0.00
Add: NOL Created from Negative Taxes 0.00
Less: NOL Used if Postive Income 0.00
Closing Balance 0.00
Balance Sheet
Equity Balance
Opening Balance 2,071.00
Add: Net Income 765.00
Less: Dividends 260.00
Add: New Equity Issue 0.00
Closing Balance 2,071.00 3,008.00
Minority Interest
Opening Balance 229.00
Add: Net Income 8.00
Less: Dividends 2.72
Closing Balance 229.00 27.00
Assets
Long-term Assets
Goodwill 2,352.00 2,299.00
Intangibles 3,405.00 3,349.00
Current Assets
Inventories 709.00 713.00
Cash and Short-term Investments 346.00 379.00
Trade and other receivables 1,150.00 1,180.00
Other Current Assets 30.00 114.00
Total Current Assets 2,235.00 2,386.00
Total Assets 9,863.00 10,578.00
Historic Assets
Current Liabilities
Trade and other payables 1,546.00 1,543.00
Other Current Liabilities 217.00 279.00
Short-term borrowings and overdrafts 610.00 1,194.00
Total Current Liabilities 2,373.00 3,016.00
Equity
Equity attributable to equity holders of the parent 2,071.00 3,008.00
Minority interest 229.00 27.00
Total Equity 2,300.00 3,035.00
Total Equity and Liabilities 9,863.00 10,578.00
Difference - -
Test 1.00 1.00
Aggregate Test 1.00
Financial Ratios
2004 2005
EBITDA Margin 19% 19%
2004 2005
EBIT Margin 16% 16%
RONIC
Incremental NOPLAT 115.32
Incremental Invested Capital -122.00
RONIC -95%
Explicit Period 0 0
Terminal Period 0 0
Shares 16.23
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
- - - - - - - -
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Growth Rate Base CaseMargin Case: Base Case /Cap Exp: Base Case WACC: 8%
1 1 1 1 1
- - - - -
28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
- - - - -
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
- - - - -
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12% 5% 4% 0% 0%
1 1 0 0 0
0 1 0 0 0
Terminal Gro 3%
Contents
300.00
Selling Price
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
The idea of this graph is to
show how to compare
historic values with
50.00 projected numbers in
developing a financial
model
0.00
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 202 202 202 202 202 202
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5
Sensitivity
Expected Case ✘ Tornado
Implied EV/EBITDA 12.63
Growth Rate Base Case /Margin Case: Base Case /Cap Exp: Base Case WACC:
8% Terminal Growth: 3%
20%
18%
17% 17%
17% 17%
17%
16% 16%
16% 16% 16%
15%
15%
14% 14%
12%
11%
8%
0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
✘ Tornado
Terminal Growth
Revenue Growth
A/R Percentage
base vs bull
base vs bear
COGS Margin
A/P Percentage
This graph is a tornado
diagram for the corporate
Inventory Percentage
model. You should be able to
evaluate which assumptions
R&D Growth Rate make most difference to the
value.
Marketing as Pct of Revenue
History
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash Balance 2,484 2,363 2,352
Investments 209 3,671 21,065
A/R and Other Current Assets 10,209 9,708 9,688
Total Current Assets 12,902 15,742 33,105
Liabilities
Short-term Debt 1,630 2,000 2,000
Other Current Liabilities 6,908 6,793 6,894
Total Current Liabilities 8,538 8,793 8,894
Difference 0 0 0
Test 1 1 1
Aggregate Test 1
Income Statement
Revenues 124,215 118,175 117,589
Less: Cash Operating Expense 41,405 41,011 41,699
Gross Profit 82,810 77,164 75,891
Less: Selling and Administrative 18,632 18,049 18,112
Less: Depreciation Expense 13,825 14,022 14,223
Operating Profit 50,353 45,093 43,555
Add: Other Income 2,717 2,717 2,818
Add: Interest Income 53 121 468
Less: Interest Expense - LTD 5,265 4,348 5,503
Less: Interest Expense - STD 82 100 100
Earnings Before Tax 47,777 43,483 41,238
Less: Taxes 11,944 11,752 11,450
Net Income before Minority 35,833 31,731 29,789
Less: Minority 3,368 2,983 2,800
Net Income 32,465 28,748 26,989
Operating
Industry Volumes 1,820.00 1,905.85 2,062.04
Company Volumes 637.00 593.63 567.90
Assumptions
Operating Assumptions
2012 220.00
2013 224.40
2014 228.89
2015 233.47
2016 238.14
2017 242.90
2018 247.76
2019 252.71
Financing Assumptions
Interest Rate on New Debt 4%
Interest Income Rate 1%
Intrerest Rate on Existing Debt 6%
Term of Exiting Debt 5.00
Min Cash as Pct of Sales 2%
Working Section
Industry Capacity
Opening Balance 0 2020 2200
Add: New Capacity 0 0 0
Closing Balance 2,020.00 2,200.00 2,400.00
Company Capacity
Opeing Balance 0.00 600.00 600.00
Add: New Capacity 0.00 0.00 0.00
Closing Balance 600.00 600.00 600.00
Working Capital
Debt Section
Test 1 1 1
Aggregate Test 1
Interest Rate 6% 6% 6%
Interest Expense on Long-term Debt 5,264.63 4,348.01 5,503.22
Test 1 1 1
Fixed Asset
Plant Balance
Opening Balance - 480,432 487,302
Add: Capital Expenditures - - -
Closing Balance 480,432 487,302 494,271
Accumulated Depreciation
Opening Balance 0.00 230,240.00 239,389.45
Add: Depreciation Expense 13,824.77 14,022.47 14,222.99
Closing Balance 230,240.00 239,389.45 248,669.73
Test 1 1 1
Aggregate Test 1
Cash Flow
EBTIDA 64,177.8 59,115.0 57,778.3
Add: Other Income 2,717.4 2,717.4 2,818.0
Less: Taxes Paid 11,944.3 11,751.8 11,449.6
Less: WC Changes - (386.7) (120.5)
Operating Cash Flow 54,950.8 50,467.3 49,267.2
Less: Capital Expenditures - - -
Cash Before Financing 54,950.8 50,467.3 49,267.2
Less: Debt Repayment - - -
Less: Net Interest Expense 5,293.2 4,327.3 5,134.9
Less: Dividends Paid to Common 19,478.8 17,248.9 16,193.2
Less: Dividends Paid to Minority 2,021.0 1,789.6 1,680.1
Add: New Equity Issues
Net Cash Flow 28,157.93 27,101.47 26,259.01
Balance Sheet
Common Equity
Opening Balance 0.00 172,573.12 182,312.50
Add: Net Income 32,464.59 28,748.11 26,988.67
Less: Dividends 19,478.76 17,248.87 16,193.20
Add: New Equity Issues
Closing Balance 172,573.12 182,312.50 192,374.34
Minority Equity
Opening Balance 0.00 19,174.79 20,185.28
Add: Minority Income 3,368.29 2,982.70 2,800.15
Less: Dividends to Minority 2,020.97 1,789.62 1,680.09
Closing Balance 19,174.79 20,185.28 21,229.22
Assets
Cash Balance 2,692.87 6,034.61 23,417.15
A/R and Other Current Assets 10,209.45 9,707.58 9,688.05
Total Current Assets 12,902.32 15,742.19 33,105.20
Liabilities
Short-term Debt 1,630.00 2,000.00 2,000.00
Other Current Liabilities 6,908.40 6,793.20 6,894.17
Total Current Liabilities 8,538.40 8,793.20 8,894.17
Financial Ratios
Invested Capital
Debt 89,374 79,543 83,802
Less: Surplus Cash 2,693 6,035 23,417
Add: Equity 191,748 202,498 213,604
Add: Unfunded Pensions 367 352 378
Less: Investment in Assoc Co's 50,322 50,322 50,322
Total Invested Capital 228,474 226,036 224,045
Average Invested Capital 228,474 227,255 225,040
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Co 2 Co 3 Co 4 Total
0 100 0 400
50 20 250 320
0 150 0 250
0 0 250 450
50 0 0 50
50 200 0 550
0 0 150 300
50 200 0 400
50 0 50 400
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
4,994.31 6,464.44 6,415.65 6,555.78 8,281.43 10,728.47 11,095.05
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
690.15 22.49 271.24 646.45 222.86 736.68 1,564.31
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
100.00 500.00 350.00 300.00 300.00 300.00 300.00
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3,852
78,169
15,723
97,744
839,838
358,687
481,152
50,322
0
50,322
629,218
6,000
12,617
18,617
171,680
1,874
48,115
315
221,984
30,160
175,874
182,582
388,616
629,218
0
1
192,585
80,579
112,006
29,597
24,167
58,242
2,717
1,640
8,322
300
53,978
14,520
39,458
3,709
35,749
9,426
3.79
44.14
23,237
3,425.60
868.33
4,200.00
1,100.00
597.55
9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
8,321.65 9,270.74 7,210.58 5,150.41 3,090.25 1,030.08 0.00
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1,640.20 820.21 44.30 43.94 47.77 46.61 49.01
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
300.00 240.00 704.34 1,020.35 2,937.93 3,140.55 3,276.97
- - - - - - -
315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00
48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19
1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71
35,749 - - - - - -
- 40,944 39,532 44,959 42,325 46,178 57,269
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
57.55 58.24 63.35 69.01 74.69 80.42 86.22
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
7,274.76 5,793.70 6,970.88 8,935.53 10,761.67 12,445.24 13,981.46
- - - - - - -
315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00
48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19 48,115.19
1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71
- - - - - - -
54,197 61,662 66,752 71,066 75,500 80,096 84,887
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
5,932.03
4.00%
8920
400
9,320.00
2,850.00
200.00
3,050.00
33%
33%
1,941.28
2025
252.71
109.65
15.37%
2.88%
5.40%
200.00
461.69
92,338.66
1,719,594
0.02
34,391.88
126,730.54
252.71
1,941.28
490,581.27
212,865.01
75,394.33
288,259.34
8.16%
40,051.62
11.45%
33,010.84
7,040.78
431.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
6%
0.00
-374,911.81
-30,015.19
-404,926.99
9,811.63
9,811.63
414,738.62
1%
92.11
4%
15,364.91
1,933,182
126,731
2,059,912
2.88%
57,452.07
838,371.01
57,452.07
895,823.08
50,322.00
5.40%
2,717.39
-
315.00
48,115.19
1,873.71
490,581.3
288,259.3
202,321.9
57,452.1
144,869.9
2,717.4
-
15,364.9
92.1
132,314.5
33,078.6
99,235.8
9,328.2
89,907.7
-
89,908
202,321.9
2,717.4
33,078.6
431.1
171,529.7
126,730.5
44,799.1
-
15,272.8
53,944.6
5,596.9
-30,015.19
664,602.88
89,907.67
53,944.60
700,565.95
61,924.02
9,328.17
5,596.90
65,655.28
9,811.63
40,051.62
49,863.24
2,059,912.43
895,823.08
1,164,089.34
50,322.00
0.00
50,322.00
1,264,274.59
0.00
414,738.62
33,010.84
447,749.46
0.00
1,873.71
48,115.19
315.00
48,430.19
65,655.28
700,565.95
766,221.23
1,264,274.59
0.00
1
89,908
700,566
682,584
13%
25%
202,322
144,870
108,652.40
414,739
9,812
766,221
1,874
50,322
1,122,700
1,087,845
9.99%
Contents
Share Price
September 4, 2009 28.10 568.00
November 6, 2009 26.78 758.00
January 28, 2010 28.04 830.50
Final Offer
Cash Value 500
Share Value 0.1874
Initial Offer
Cash Value 300
Share Value 0.2589
Consideration
Cash Value 500 #VALUE!
Kraft Share Price - US$ 29.58 #VALUE!
Kraft Share Price - Pence 1,833.1 #VALUE!
Exchange Ratio 0.1874 #VALUE!
Exchange Value 343.51 #VALUE!
Total 843.51 #VALUE!
Number of Cadbury Shares 1,374.00 #VALUE!
Total Consideration 11,590 #VALUE!
Premium 4,390
Discount Rate 8%
EV/EBITDA 9
3,764.64
Show Comments
Contents
Show Comments
Assumptions
Operating Inputs
Holding Period 11.00 Equity IRR
Optimal Holding Period
Entry EV/EBTIDA 11.3
Exit EV/EBITDA 10
Financing Inputs
Sr. Debt/EBITDA - A 4.00
Interest Rate 6%
Amortisation Period 6.00
Sub Debt/EBITDA 1
Interest Rate 12%
Revolver
Commitment as Pct of Senior 10%
Commitment Fee 2%
Interest Rate 8%
Working Analysis
Sources of Funds
Senior Debt - A 4,000.00
Senior Debt - B 2,500.00
Sub Debt - C 1,000.00
Equity 3,800.00
Total 11,300.00
Debt Schedule
Senior Debt - A
Opening Balance 4,000.00 3,333.33 2,666.67 2,000.00
Less: Amortisation 666.67 666.67 666.67 666.67
Less: Repayment at Exit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Closing Balance 4,000.00 3,333.33 2,666.67 2,000.00 1,333.33
Interest Rate 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Interest Expense 0.00 240.00 200.00 160.00 120.00
Senior Debt - B
Opening Balance 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00
Less: Repayment at Exit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Less: Sweep Cash Flow 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Closing Balance 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00
Revolving Debt
Interest Rate 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Interest Expense 0.00 0.00 26.87 41.60 37.41
Sub Debt - C
Opening Balance 1,000.00 1,120.00 1,254.40 1,404.93
Add: Capitalised Intrest 120.00 134.40 150.53 168.59
Less: Cash Sweep on Sub Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Less: Repayment at Exit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Closing Balance 1,000.00 1,120.00 1,254.40 1,404.93 1,573.52
IRR Statistics
Equity Cash Flow -3,800.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Equity IRR 19.82% 19.82%
Discount Rate 3%
Equity NPV at Rf 15,380.43
Max 26.63%
Optimal Holding Period Match 4.00
Graph
10% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
10.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
1.69 1.77 1.86 1.95 2.05 2.15 2.26 2.37 2.49 2.62
1,687.26 1,771.62 1,860.20 1,953.21 2,050.87 2,153.42 2,261.09 2,374.14 2,492.85 2,617.49
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
255.26 268.02 281.42 295.49 310.27 325.78 342.07 359.17 377.13 395.99
10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22,610.86 0.00 0.00 0.00
1,333.33 666.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
666.67 666.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
666.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
80.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2,500.00 2,154.40 1,505.12 33.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
345.60 649.28 1,471.71 33.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2,154.40 1,505.12 33.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25%
156.25 134.65 94.07 2.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25%
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00
160.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
489.17 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00 650.00
160.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
160.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
12.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
9.78 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00
1,573.52 1,762.34 1,973.82 2,210.68 866.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
188.82 211.48 236.86 265.28 104.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 1,609.23 970.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1,762.34 1,973.82 2,210.68 866.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
188.82 211.48 236.86 265.28 104.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1,687.26 1,771.62 1,860.20 1,953.21 2,050.87 2,153.42 2,261.09 0.00 0.00 0.00
255.26 268.02 281.42 295.49 310.27 325.78 342.07 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22,610.86 0.00 0.00 0.00
1,432.00 1,503.60 1,578.78 1,657.72 1,740.61 1,827.64 24,529.88 0.00 0.00 0.00
80.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
666.67 666.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
156.25 134.65 94.07 2.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
9.78 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
506.43 649.28 1,471.71 1,642.63 1,727.61 1,814.64 24,516.88 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
160.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
345.60 649.28 1,471.71 1,642.63 1,727.61 1,814.64 24,516.88 0.00 0.00 0.00
345.60 649.28 1,471.71 33.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 1,609.23 1,727.61 1,814.64 24,516.88 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 1,609.23 1,727.61 1,814.64 24,516.88 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 1,609.23 970.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 756.86 1,814.64 24,516.88 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 756.86 1,814.64 24,516.88 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 756.86 1,814.64 24,516.88 0.00 0.00 0.00
1,248.52 1,490.60 1,565.78 35.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 1,609.23 970.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Optimal Holding Period 4.00
15
0
0
5%
100%
5.00%
2.75
2,748.36
5.00%
415.79
10.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.25%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.25%
0.00
650.00
0.00
650.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8%
0.00
2%
13.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Equity IRR 19.82% Exit EV/EBITDA 10 Optimal Holding Period 4.00
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
E
q
u
i
t 0.00%
y 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
I
R -10.00%
R
-20.00%
This graph shows the
relationship between the
terminal period and the
-30.00% optimal holding period. If
the valuation is low, the LBO
-40.00% can be held for longer
periods
Holding Period
-50.00%
LBO Break Even Analysis
10000
4000
2000
0
-230%
-180%
-160%
-150%
-130%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
100%
110%
-250%
-240%
-220%
-210%
-200%
-190%
-170%
-140%
-120%
-110%
-60%
90%
-2000
Uses of Funds
Consideration 532,481.38
Advisory Fees 10,649.63
Debt Fees 6,750.00
Debt Retirement 100,000.00
Total Uses of Funds 649,881.01 Return on Invested C
10.00%
9.00%
Sources of Funds 8.00%
Use of Target Cash 70,000.00 7.00%
Senior Debt - A 150,000.00 6.00%
Senior Debt - B 100,000.00 5.00%
Sub Debt - C 150,000.00 4.00%
JV Partner 10,000.00 3.00%
2.00%
Equity 169,881.01
1.00%
Total Sources of Funds 649,881.01
0.00%
1 2 3 4
Equity IRR 14.36% Show Comments
Synergies 9,000.00
4.00
Selling Price Base Case
2.00
Return on Invested Capital
10.00%
9.00% 1.00
8.00%
7.00%
6.00% -
5.00% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Debt to EBITDA
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Model OK Demand Growth
Show Comments Price Scenario Base Case
Forecast Year 0 0 1
Holding Period Switch 1
Terminal Period Switch 0
Year 2001 2011 2012
Transaction Assumptions
Consideration
Current Share Price 44.14
Number of Target Company Shares 9,426
EBITDA 82,408.86
Financing of Transaction
Cash Sweep
Debt to EBITDA Sweep Pct
15.00 100%
3.50 90%
3.00 75%
2.00 0%
JV Financing 10,000
Sources of Funds
Use of Target Cash 70,000.00
Senior Debt - A 150,000.00
Senior Debt - B 100,000.00
Sub Debt - C 150,000.00
JV Partner 10,000.00
Equity 169,881.01
Total Sources of Funds 649,881.01
Test 1
Accounting Adjustments
Goodwill
Consideration 532,481.38
Less: Existing Equity 358,455.75
Less: Plant Write-up 50,000.00
Less: Intangbile Assets 150,000.00
Add: Current Asset Write-down 2,000.00
Add: Deferred Tax Write-up 50,000.00
Total Goodwill 26,025.63
Synergies 9000
Tax Depreciation Rate 4%
Intangible Amortisation Period 15
Debt Issuance Amortisation Period 5
History
Goodwill
Intangible Assets
Debt Issuance Costs
Liabilities
Short-term Debt 1,630 6,000
Other Current Liabilities 6,908 12,617
Total Current Liabilities 8,538 18,617
Difference 0 0
Test 1 1
Aggregate Test 1
Income Statement
Revenues 124,215 192,585
Less: Cash Operating Expense 41,405 80,579
Gross Profit 82,810 112,006
Less: Selling and Administrative 18,632 29,597
Less: Depreciation Expense 13,825 24,167
Operating Profit 50,353 58,242
Add: Other Income 2,717 2,717
Add: Interest Income 53 1,640
Less: Interest Expense - LTD 5,265 8,322
Less: Interest Expense - STD 82 300
Earnings Before Tax 47,777 53,978
Less: Taxes 11,944 14,520
Net Income before Minority 35,833 39,458
Less: Minority 3,368 3,709
Net Income 32,465 35,749
Operating
Industry Volumes 1,820.00 3,425.60
Company Volumes 637.00 868.33
Assumptions
Operating Assumptions
Base Case
Base Case
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2012
Base Case
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Financing Assumptions
Interest Rate on New Debt 4%
Interest Income Rate 1%
Intrerest Rate on Existing Debt 6%
Term of Exiting Debt 5.00
Min Cash as Pct of Sales 2%
Industry Capacity
Opening Balance 0 3900 4200
Add: New Capacity 0 0 400
Closing Balance 2,020.00 4,200.00 4,600.00
Company Capacity
Opeing Balance 0.00 1,100.00 1,100.00
Add: New Capacity 0.00 0.00 200.00
Closing Balance 600.00 1,100.00 1,300.00
Working Capital
Debt Section
Existing Debt
Opening Balance 0.00 77,680.38
Less: Repayments of Long-term Debt 0.00 0.00 15,536.08
Closing Balance 87,743.81 77,680.38 62,144.30
Test 1 1 1
Aggregate Test 1
Interest Rate 6% 6% 6%
Interest Expense on Long-term Debt 5,264.63 8,321.65 4,194.74
Senior Debt A
Opening Balance 150,000.00
Less: Scheduled Repayments 30,000.00
Less: Cash Flow Sweep - A -
Less: Repayments at Exit -
Closing Balance 150,000.00 120,000
EURIBOR Rate 1.90%
Credit Spread 3.50%
Total Interest Rate 5.40%
Senior Debt B
Opening Balance 100,000.00
Less: Scheduled Repayment -
Less: Repayment at Exit -
Less: Cash Flow Sweep -
Closing Balance 100,000.00 100,000.00
Opening Balance -
Add: Amount Borrowed 78,087.25
Less: Amount Repaid -
Closing Balance - 78,087.25
Sub Debt - C
Opening Balance 150,000.00
Add: Capitalised Interest 17,850.0
Less: Repayment -
Closing Balance 150,000.00 167,850
Fixed Asset
Plant Balance
Opening Balance - 889,838
Add: Capital Expenditures - 98,397
Less: Terminal Proceeds - -
Closing Balance 889,838 988,235
Accumulated Depreciation
Opening Balance 0.00 358,686.60
Add: Depreciation Expense 24,166.95 27,021.46
Closing Balance 358,686.60 385,708.06
Tax Basis
Existing Deferred Taxes 25,019 48,115
Tax Rate 25% 27%
Dervative Assets - -
Dervative Liabilities 315.00 315.00
Pension Obligations 1,873.71 1,873.71
Goodwill 26,025.63 26,025.63
Revenues 223,419.0
Less: Operating Expense 121,812.2
EBITDA 101,606.8
Less: Deprecaition Expense 27,021.5
Less: Amortisation 11,350.0
EBIT 63,235.3
Add: Other Income 2,717.4
Less: Interest Expense on Existing Debt 4,194.7
Less: New Interest Expense 35,050.0
Plus: Interest Income 120.2
EBT 26,828.2
Less: Taxes Booked 6,707.0
Earnings before Minority Interest 20,121.1
Less: Minority Interest 1,118.6
Earnings to Common 19,002.5
Historic Earnings -
Difference 19,003
Taxes Paid
EBT - Books 26,828
Add: Book Depreciation 27,021
Add: Amortisation 11,350
Less: Tax Depreciation 9,123
NOL Balance
Opening Balance -
Add: Tax Loss -
Less: NOL Used -
Closing Balance -
Cash Flow
EBTIDA 101,606.8
Add: Other Income 2,717.4
Less: Taxes Paid 14,019.2
Less: WC Changes 3,184.8
Operating Cash Flow 87,120.1
Less: Capital Expenditures 98,396.8
Add: Terminal Proceeds -
Cash Before Financing (11,276.6)
Less: Debt Repayment - Existing 15,536.1
Less: Net Interest Expense 4,074.5
Less: Senior Interest - A 8,100.0
Less: Senior Interest - B 6,400.0
Less: Interest on Revolver -
Less: Interest in Defaulted Debt -
Less: Amortising Repayment 30,000.0
Less: Commitment Fee Expense 2,700.0
Less: Repayment on Bullet Debt -
Cash Flow After Senior Debt (78,087.2)
Add: Borrowings from Revolver 78,087.2
Less: Repayments of Revolver -
Cash Flow After Revolver -
Add: Default -
Less: Repayment of Default -
Cash Flow After Default -
Less: Cash Flow Sweep - A -
Cash After Sweep on A -
Less: Cash Flow Sweep - B -
Cash Flow After Sweep on B -
Less: Cash Sweep for Sub Debt -
Cash Available for Common Equity -
Dividends to Minority Equity -
Dividends to Common Equity -
Balance Sheet
Common Equity
Opening Balance 0.0 159,231.4
Add: Net Income 0.0 19,002.5
Less: Dividends 0.0 0.0
Add: New Equity Issues
Closing Balance 159,231.4 178,233.9
Minority Equity
Opening Balance 0.0 40,160.4
Add: Minority Income 0.0 1,118.6
Less: Dividends to Minority 0.0 0.0
Closing Balance 40,160.4 41,279.0
Assets
Cash Balance 12,020.8 12,020.8
A/R and Other Current Assets 13,722.9 18,240.2
Total Current Assets 25,743.7 30,261.0
Other Assets
Goodwill 26,025.6 26,025.6
Intangible Assets - Unamortised 150,000.0 140,000.0
Debt Issuance Costs - Unamortised 6,750.0 5,400.0
Liabilities
Short-term Debt
Other Current Liabilities 12,617.19 13,949.68
Total Current Liabilities 12,617.19 13,949.68
Financial Ratios
Invested Capital
Debt 528,082
Less: Surplus Cash 12,021
Add: Equity 219,513
Add: Unfunded Pensions 1,874
Less: Investment in Assoc Co's 50,322
Total Invested Capital 687,125
Average Invested Capital 687,125
ROIC 6.90%
Graphs
2012
Operating Cash 87,120.1
Capital Expenditures (98,396.8)
Operating Cash After Cap Exp (11,276.6)
Senior Interest - A 8,100.0
Senior Repayment - A 30,000.0
Aggregate Check 1
5%
Base Case Variable Cost Base Case Equity IRR 14%
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Debt to EBITDA
From To Sweep Pct
15.00 3.5 100%
3.50 3 90%
3.00 2 75%
2.00 0 0%
Valuations Goodwill Debt Ret. Debt Issued Equity Ret. New Equity
-2,000.00
50,000.00
26,025.63
150,000.00
6,750.00
-100,000.00 400,000.00
50,000.00
(175,874) 159,231
(182,582)
5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%
1 1 1 1 1 1
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
3,262.58 2,330.41 1,398.25 466.08 0.00 0.00
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
120.21 120.21 120.21 120.21 120.21 120.21
0 0 0 0 0 68083.0486903
- - - - 68,083.0 -
- - - - - -
- - - - 68,083.0 68,083.0
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
11,458.61 13,051.79 14,661.78 15,431.27 18,943.43 22,509.36
150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000
10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
- - - - - -
315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00
1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71
26,025.63 26,025.63 26,025.63 26,025.63 26,025.63 26,025.63
- - - - - -
15,262 20,677 17,364 20,966 33,973 30,517
21,547 29,192 24,515 29,600 47,964 43,085
28,702 29,848 31,006 31,560 34,086 36,652
11,350 11,350 11,350 11,350 10,000 10,000
11,459 13,052 14,662 15,431 18,943 22,509
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
JV Issued Total Adj New Balance
- 3,852
(70,000) 8,169
(2,000) 13,723
- 25,744
50,000 889,838
- 358,687
- 531,152
26,026 26,026
150,000 150,000
6,750 6,750
-
- 50,322
- 0
- 233,098
-
160,776 789,993
0 6,000
0 12,617
0 18,617
300000 471,680
0 1,874
50000 98,115
0 315
0 571,984
0.00 0.00
1 1
5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%
0.02 0 0 0 0 0
23,311.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
92,565.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 1 1 1 1 1
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
120.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
0 0 0 0 0 0
64,114.96 - - - - -
- - - - - -
64,114.96 - - - - -
- - - - - -
68083.0486903 0 0 0 0 0
- - - - - -
68,083.0 - - - - -
- - - - - -
39,214.69 - - - - -
- - - - - -
49,221.30 - - - - -
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
24,799.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000
10,000 - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00 315.00
1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71 1,873.71
26,025.63 26,025.63 26,025.63 26,025.63 26,025.63 26,025.63
339,335.9 - - - - -
190,389.5 - - - - -
148,946.4 - - - - -
23,940.8 - - - - -
10,000.0 - - - - -
115,005.7 - - - - -
2,717.4 - - - - -
- - - - - -
49,221.3 - - - - -
120.2 - - - - -
68,622.0 - - - - -
17,155.5 - - - - -
51,466.5 - - - - -
2,861.1 - - - - -
48,605.3 - - - - -
- - - - - -
48,605 - - - - -
68,622 - - - - -
23,941 - - - - -
10,000 - - - - -
24,799 - - - - -
77,764 - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
77,764 - - - - -
19,441 - - - - -
(2,285.39) - - - - -
48,218.20 48,218.20 48,218.20 48,218.20 48,218.20 48,218.20
148,946.4 - - - - -
2,717.4 - - - - -
19,440.9 - - - - -
506.7 - - - - -
131,716.3 - - - - -
92,565.2 - - - - -
997,941.1 - - - - -
1,037,092.1 - - - - -
- - - - - -
(120.2) - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
4,103.4 - - - - -
4,357.3 - - - - -
- - - - - -
1,545.9 - - - - -
- - - - - -
1,027,205.7 - - - - -
- - - - - -
64,115.0 - - - - -
963,090.8 - - - - -
- - - - - -
68,083.0 - - - - -
895,007.7 - - - - -
- - - - - -
895,007.7 - - - - -
- - - - - -
895,007.7 - - - - -
368,749.9 - - - - -
526,257.8 - - - - -
29,255.9 - - - - -
497,001.9 - - - - -
497,001.9 - - - - -
48,605 - - - - -
336,343 336,343 336,343 336,343 336,343 336,343
326,668 336,343 336,343 336,343 336,343 336,343
15% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
148,946 - - - - -
115,006 - - - - -
86,254.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0 0 0 0 0 0
12,021 12,021 12,021 12,021 12,021 12,021
-108,351 -108,351 -108,351 -108,351 -108,351 -108,351
1,874 1,874 1,874 1,874 1,874 1,874
50,322 50,322 50,322 50,322 50,322 50,322
-168,820 -168,820 -168,820 -168,820 -168,820 -168,820
299,442 -168,820 -168,820 -168,820 -168,820 -168,820
25%
0.00
4.90%
8920
400
9,320.00
2,850.00
200.00
3,050.00
33%
33%
0.00
2025
252.71
109.65
15.37%
2.88%
5.40%
200.00
461.69
0.00
1,165,562
0
0.00
0.00
252.71
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.70
-
-
8.16%
27,703.77
11.45%
21,803.00
5,900.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6%
0.00
12,020.84
1%
0.00
0.00
-
-
-
-
1.90%
3.50%
5.40%
-
-
-
-
-
1.90%
4.50%
6.40%
150,000.00
-
150,000.00
-
-
-
-
6.40%
-
1.80%
-
0
-
-
-
6.40%
0
0.00
-
-
-
1.90%
10%
12%
-
-
379,290
-
-
379,290
2.88%
0.00
601,502.73
0.00
601,502.73
666,262
-
666,262
4%
0.00
150,000
-
70,000
6,750
-
50,322.00
5.40%
-
-
315.00
1,873.71
26,025.63
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
48,218.20
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.52
1
1.00
336,343.0
0.0
0.0
336,343.0
-444,693.7
0.0
0.0
-444,693.7
12,020.8
27,703.8
39,724.6
379,289.7
601,502.7
-222,213.0
26,025.6
70,000.0
0.0
50,322.0
0.0
146,347.6
-36,140.8
0.0
21,803.00
21,803.00
0.00
1,873.71
48,218.20
315.00
48,533.20
-444,693.72
336,343.03
-108,350.69
-36,140.79
0.00
1
-
336,343
336,343
0%
-
-
0.00
0
12,021
-108,351
1,874
50,322
-168,820
-168,820
0.00%
21,803.00
-
-
2025
-
-
-
-
-
Contents
Share Price Shares Yr 1 EPS
Buying Company 20 2,000 1.50
Target Company 8 1,000 1.00
2012
Pro-forma EPS 1.59
Stand-Alone EPS 1.5
33%
Show Comments
1.8
1.6
E
a
r 1.4
n
i
n
g 1.2
s
p
e
r 1
S
h
a 0.8
r
e
This chart shows the key
0.6
inputs of synergies and
premium in a transaction
from the analysis on the
0.4
previous sheet.
0.2
0
2012 2013 2014 2015
Contents
Show Comments
7.00 Premium Percent 2
Premium 25%
6.00 Consolidated EP
Debt 1,700.00 Base
Scenario 1 5.00
4.00
EBITDA EBTIDA Cap 3.00
Target Buyer Exp Targ Synergies 2.00
Base 160 280 20 30
1.00
Low 130 240 30 0
-
High 200 300 15 50
2011 2012 2013
Worst 130 200 30 0
Base 160 280 20 30
0
0
0
0
0
-
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Purchase Price
Consideration 1,704.33
Financing of Transaction
Sources of Funds
Cash of Target Company 35.00
New Debt Issued 1,700.00
New Equity Issued 170.37
Total Source of Funds 1,905.37
Accounting Adjustments
Goodwill Analysis
Consideration 1,704.33
Less: Existing Equity 290.00
Net 1,414.33
Less: Plant Write-up 150.00
Add: A/R Write-down 5.00
Less: Intangibles 300.00
Goodwill 969.33
Synergies 30.00
Difference 0 0
-35.00 65.00
-5.00 115.00
180.00
150.00 1,750.00
0.00 500.00
0.00 1,250.00
0.00
300.00 300.00
969.33 969.33 969.33
34.00 34.00 34.00
1,413.33 2,733.33
1,413.33 2,733.33
0.00 0.00
Contents
Show Comments
Balance Sheet
Assets
Current Assets
Surplus Cash 50
A/R 40
Total Current Assets 90
Assumptions
EBITDA 160
Growth 5%
Cap Exp 20
Interest Income 2%
Fixed Assets
Depreciation Rate 5% 5% 5%
Depreciation Expense 30.5 31.5 32.5
Accumulated Deprecaition
Opening Balance 200.00 230.50 262.00
Add: Dep Expense 30.50 31.50 32.50
Closing Balance 200 230.50 262.00 294.50
Debt Section
Cash Flow
EBTIDA 168.00 176.40 185.22
Less: Taxes 37.95 41.88 45.45
Less: WC Changes 2.00 2.10 2.21
Operating Cash Flow 128.05 132.42 137.57
Less: Cap Exp 20.00 20.00 20.00
Cash Before Financing 108.05 112.42 117.57
Less: Dividends 35.42 39.09 42.42
Less: Net Interest 11.00 5.30 1.22
Net Cash Flow 61.63 68.03 73.92
Balance Sheet
Equity Balance
Opening Balance 290.00 343.13 401.76
Add: Net Income 88.55 97.72 106.05
Less: Dividends 35.42 39.09 42.42
Closing Balance 290 343.13 401.76 465.39
Assets
Current Assets
Surplus Cash 50.00 0.00 0.00 53.59
A/R 40.00 42.00 44.10 46.31
Total Current Assets 90.00 42.00 44.10 99.89
P/E Ratio
Strock Price
2014 2015 2016 2017
5% 5% 5% 5%
33.5 34.5 35.5 36.5
10
68.17
Contents
Balance Sheet
Show Comments
Assets
Current Assets
Surplus Cash 50
A/R 80
Total Current Assets 130
Assumptions
EBITDA 280
Growth 5%
Cap Exp 50
Interest Income 2%
Working Analysis
EBTIDA 280.00 294.00 308.70 324.14
Cap Exp 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Fixed Assets
Dep Rate 5% 5% 5%
Dep Expense 51.25 53.75 56.25
Acc Dep
Opening Balance 300.00 351.25 405.00
Add: Dep Expense 51.25 53.75 56.25
Closing Balance 300 351.25 405.00 461.25
Debt Section
Cash Flow
EBTIDA 294.00 308.70 324.14
Less: Taxes 65.03 70.87 76.53
Less: WC Changes 4.00 4.20 4.41
Operating Cash Flow 224.98 233.63 243.19
Less: Cap Exp 50.00 50.00 50.00
Cash Before Financing 174.98 183.63 193.19
Less: Dividends 60.69 66.15 71.43
Less: Net Interest 26.00 18.70 12.78
Net Cash Flow 88.29 98.77 108.99
Balance Sheet
Equity Balance
Opening Balance 380.00 471.04 570.26
Add: Net Income 151.73 165.37 178.58
Less: Dividends 60.69 66.15 71.43
Closing Balance 380 471.04 570.26 677.40
Assets
Current Assets
Surplus Cash 50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A/R 80.00 84.00 88.20 92.61
Total Current Assets 130.00 84.00 88.20 92.61
P/E Ratio
Stock Price
5% 5% 5% 5%
58.75 61.25 63.75 66.25
13
60.69
Assets
Current Assets
Surplus Cash 65.00
A/R 115.00
Total Current Assets 180.00
Intangibles 300.00
Goodwill 969.33
Debt Issuance Cost 34.00
Difference 0.00
Inputs
Synergies 30.00
Working Capital
Depreciation Rate 5% 5%
Book Depreciation Expense 89.25 92.75
Accumulated Depreciation
Opening Balance 500.00 589.25
Add: Deprecaition Expense 89.25 92.75
Closing Balance 500.00 589.25 682.00
Intangible Assets
Base Intanbible Assets 300.00 300.00 300.00
Amortisaton Rate 20% 20% 20%
Amortisation Expense 60.00 60.00
Accumulated Amortisation 60.00 120.00
Net Intangible Assets 300.00 240.00 180.00
Debt Schedule
Term of Debt 6
Interest Rate 6% 6%
Interest Expense 93.50 76.50
Tax Analysis
Balance Sheet
Equity Balance
Opening Balance 533.33 625.68
Add: Net Income 153.92 176.07
Less: Dividends 61.57 70.43
Closing Balance 533.33 625.68 731.32
Assets
Current Assets
Surplus Cash 65.00 9.84 10.30
A/R 115.00 121.00 127.30
Total Current Assets 180.00 130.84 137.60
Difference - - -
Ratios
2011 2012
Cash EPS 5.85 6.33
Buying Company Cash EPS 4.06 4.38
Debt to Capital
2011 2012
FFO to Debt 20% 23%
Low Range - BBB 18% 18%
High Range - BBB 28% 28%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
96.25 99.75 103.25 106.75 110.25
6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
59.50 42.50 25.50 8.50 -
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
34.67 39.66 43.77 46.97 50.05
0 0 0 0 0
- - - - -
0 0 0 0 0
- - - - -
0 0 0 0 0
1,643.15 1,442.11 1,222.76 1,000.97 766.19
850.38 983.71 1,132.22 1,322.06 1,527.47
- - - - -
Transaction Assumptions
Strock Price
Premimum
Consideration per Share
Date of Transaction
Debt Issued
Debt Retired
Contents
Show Comments
Valuation Year 4
WACC 10%
Period 1 2 3 4 5
Valuation Switch 0 0 0 1 1
Mechanics
EBT 200 -300 -150 -80 60
Valuation Method 1
Free Cash Flow
EBT = EBITDA 0 0 0 -80 60
Less: EBIT x Tax = EBT x Tax 0 0 0 -13.6 10.2
Free Cash Flow 0 0 0 -66.4 49.8
Valuation Method 2
Free Cash Flow
EBT = EBITDA 0 0 0 -80 60
Less: EBIT x Tax = EBT x Tax 0 0 0 -13.6 10.2
Less: Change in Deferred Tax 0 0 0 13.6 -10.2
Free Cash Flow 0 0 0 -80 60
PV of Free Cash Flow 526.06 Correct value with actual cash flow
Single Asset
Book Life 10
Tax Life 5
Tax Rate 17%
Book Depreciation 20 20 20 20 20
Net Plant Balance 200 180 160 140 120 100
Tax Depreciation 40 40 40 40 40
Net Tax Balance 200 160 120 80 40 0
Method 1
EBITDA 0 0 0 100 100
Less: Book Taxes 0 0 0 13.6 13.6
Free Cash Flow 0 0 0 86.4 86.4
Method 2
EBITDA 0 0 0 100 100
Less: Taxes 0 0 0 13.6 13.6
Add: Change in Deferred Tax - - - 3.40 3.40
Free Cash Flow - - - 89.80 89.80
Net Value 454.60
Key point -- when the assets keep growing, then the deferred tax never reverses
Forecast
Existing New
EBT - Taxes
Show Comments
6 7 8 9 10 11
1 1 1 1 1 1
27.2 40.8 85 85 85 85
470 310 70 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
160 240 70 0 0 0
310 70 0 0 0 0
0 0 73.1 85 85 85
52.70 11.90 - - - -
3 4 5 6 7 8
0.75 0.68 0.62 0.56 0.51 0.47
20 20 20 20 20 0
80 60 40 20 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
Average 250
Median 200.00
6
Range
0
Range
Contents
Options
Debt Value
Stable Ratios