Briefing
Urban; Climate change
Policy
pointers
Donors, policymakers
and researchers must
address the threat of
potentially catastrophic
‘disruptive risks’ facing
cities of the global South,
using fast and nimble
solutions that operate
at scale.
The development
community should promote
‘disruptive resilience’ to
respond to the rise in
outlier and extreme events;
the shift in established
hazard patterns; the
increase in multiple,
simultaneous crises within
single geographies; and
the growth in
transboundary risk.
Policymakers and
authorities need to revise
urban risk-management
practices, and embrace
new kinds of data,
collaboration, finance,
innovation models and
decision making.
Researchers must
explore the financial,
political, social and
behavioural factors that
inhibit or enhance
disruptive resilience, if this
agenda is to succeed in
transforming the lives of
some of the world’s most
vulnerable people.
Download the pdf at http://pubs.iied.org/17766IIED
Keywords:
Climate resilience, informal settlements
(slums), urban crises, urban poor
Issue date
September 2020
Disruptive resilience: an agenda
for the new normal in cities of
the global South
Urban centres across the world are unprepared for the ‘disruptive risks’ they
now face. Highly unlikely disturbances are occurring more frequently.
Established hazard patterns are shifting. Multiple crises are unfolding
concurrently. A disturbance in one part of the globe is felt in another. The
compound impacts of COVID-19 and climate change are important examples
of disruptive risks that are rendering existing risk-management systems and
practices redundant. New kinds of data, modes of collaboration, financial
mechanisms, innovation models and decision-making approaches are needed
to bring a vision of ‘disruptive resilience’ to life and meet this challenge
effectively. This briefing explores the need to address disruptive risk, proposes
an agenda for moving this work forward and provides inspiring examples of
where approaches in building disruptive resilience are already proving fruitful.
Over time, most town and city governments the same time in a few different places, most are
(and many of their residents) have developed unable to handle large concurrent crises.
mechanisms for dealing with the threats they
For example, as COVID-19 was wreaking havoc,
experience or anticipate from climate change and
Cyclone Amphan battered cities on India’s east
other disasters. However, the type of risks they
coast and in southern Bangladesh. This
now face differ greatly from those they have
compounded other risks, and resources were
prepared for. For example, a number of extreme
spread thin. One quarter of the cyclone shelters in
climate-induced events are on the rise1 and the
areas affected by Amphan in Odisha, India were
COVID-19 crisis is viewed by some as a harbinger
being used at the time as temporary medical
of pandemics to come. The consensus is growing
centres for people quarantined for coronavirus.
that we will continue to see a rise in unexpected,
Also, the catastrophic explosion that rocked
low-probability, high-impact events that are difficult
Beirut in August 2020 led not only to hundreds of
to anticipate and, consequently, to plan for.2
deaths and thousands of injuries but also to a
Even the hazards that cities are used to facing, major spike in coronavirus infections. Beirut
such as heavy rainfall, floods and high recorded its highest (at that time) single-day
temperatures, are changing in intensity and timing; infection tally 48 hours after the explosion. These
they are catching risk managers by surprise. new risks are exposing the fundamental
Additionally, while national risk-management weaknesses of public health, disaster risk
apparatuses are geared to respond to management and emergency response systems
emergencies (natural or manmade) unfolding at in cities worldwide.
IIED Briefing

Given the highly interconnected nature of the governance is widely recognised as a

global economy, events such as flash floods pre-requisite to successfully managing risk. This
in one area of the globe increasingly lead to apart, shifts are required in five other domains of
disturbances elsewhere, such action, which we detail here. See Table 1 for a
The status quo in risk as disruption in food supply
chains. Due to physical
summary of the following five points.
Informality: shift from participants to
management must be distances and time lags
between the occurrence of
partners. Approximately 1 billion urban residents
disrupted to ensure such an event and the
around the world live in informal settlements with
poor-quality houses that lack adequate basic
disruptions it causes, these
towns and cities can wider impacts are difficult
services and limited or no risk-reducing
infrastructure.5 Many work in the informal
respond effectively to to predict.3
economy characterised by low pay, job instability
In this way disruptive risks — and poor working conditions. An increasing
outlier hazards unexpected, widespread, number of governments and NGOs have begun
protracted, transboundary and to recognise the benefits of involving these
novel — highlight the need to overhaul urban low-income residents in risk management.
risk-management systems. Frequently, though, they are not treated as
genuine partners in this process.
Why cities face disruptive risk
Authorities and the development community
Using the lens of disruptive risk can also reveal
must shift from encouraging local ‘participation’
underlying drivers that make urban centres
to ensuring citizen ‘partnership’ and enabling
vulnerable. Hazard impacts spread rapidly in
local leadership. This long-sought change implies
densely populated urban centres. Risk rises
significant disruption. External partners must
where natural and engineered infrastructure that
recognise the expertise of residents of informal
could help manage these hazards is absent,
settlements and use their knowledge as the basis
insufficient or poorly maintained. Municipal
for designing more resilient neighbourhoods.
authorities in the global South lack financial and
Financial decision making and control must
technical capacity to manage risk. Unless these
genuinely devolve to properly constituted,
are enhanced, the consequences of hazards are
accountable local institutions.6 Accountability to
likely to be severe. Also, urban centres suffer
citizens must be as important as meeting the
from complex governance arrangements where
externally imposed standards of governments
multiple agencies, departments and ministries
and development agencies.
have overlapping mandates.
In the COVID-19 pandemic, this model of
Joined-up decision-making and public
partnership delivered rich dividends in Dharavi,
accountability (particularly to the most vulnerable
Mumbai, the largest informal settlement in India.
residents) is essential to ensure cities can cope
Unlike the top-down approach used elsewhere in
with disasters.4 Well-planned and well-governed
India, here the government actively partnered
towns and cities generate many intangible
with volunteers, civil society organisations,
resources that can help them bounce back from
sanitation workers, political leaders and medical
shocks. If managed well, multiple governance
professionals. Together they have successfully
systems present within cities can open up
contained the infection in one of the world’s most
potential solutions to challenges. Also, the density
densely populated places.7
and diversity of urban societies can foster rapid
problem solving and innovation. Finance: shift from scarce to swift finance at
scale. As only 11% of multilateral climate funds
Responding to disruptive risk have gone to cities, there is a need to explore
with disruptive resilience innovative mechanisms to finance urban
resilience — ones that can help cities secure
Coronavirus-related mortality rates and economic
resources at scale, swiftly.8 In this context,
devastation have amply demonstrated the lack of
municipal bonds are taking on a new significance.
resilience in urban centres worldwide and the
Through these, a city government/agency can
weakness in risk-management systems in
raise money from capital debt markets for
dealing with upheaval. There is near-unanimous
investment in building resilience.9
consensus that the world will face an increase in
such outlier hazards, including pandemics. The These are proving to be an important way for
status quo in risk management must be disrupted authorities to garner resources to respond to
to ensure towns and cities can respond disruptive risks. For example, the US Federal
effectively to these kinds of risks. The urgent Reserve has pledged to buy up to US$500 billion
need for transparent and accountable urban in municipal bonds to finance COVID-19
IIED Briefing

Table 1. Transitioning to disruptive resilience

Area/sector Business as usual
Informality Ignore residents of informal settlements or, in
some cases, invite them to ‘participate’ superficially in
decision making on urban resilience.
Finance Overlook the need to finance urban resilience
efforts or send funds that are too little or too late.
Services Emphasise estimating probability of a hazard and
and basic contingency planning to ensure continued
systems service.
Innovation Mostly overlook novel approaches for reducing risk
or use structured and expert-led models of innovation.
Data Employ static, arduous, expensive approaches
to gathering and analysing risk-related climate
information.
Disruptive resilience
Treat local people and institutions as full partners to ensure that
decision making on risk management devolves and draws on
expertise of those living in informal settlements.
Ensure urban centres can augment external financing by using
internal mechanisms and methods (such as resilience bonds) to
raise financing swiftly, at scale.
Enhance the ability of those running urban services to make
decisions under uncertain conditions, using approaches such as
adaptive management and tactical urbanism.
Enable autonomous innovation that is frugal, ‘good enough’ and
relies on local knowledge for swift solutions to disruptive risk.
Use big data and self-enumeration exercises undertaken by
people in informal settlements. These provide dynamic risk data
cheaply and easily.

response and recovery.10 A few cities in the global shorter planning horizons in times when crises
South have also employed this mechanism but are unfolding).
there is immense scope for wider adoption.
Innovation: shift from absent to frugal, fast,
Similarly, innovative ‘land-value-capture’ schemes,
frontline innovation. Due to the uncertain
which monetise unused government land, have
nature of risk that cities will face, all partners must
also proven effective in helping cash-strapped
embrace innovative technology, building design,
city governments to raise money swiftly.11
management practices, financing mechanisms
International climate finance must better serve and planning instruments. But urban
local government through improved predictability, governments in the global South lack the
flexibility and convergence across interventions.12 resources for this. Donors, development agencies
and governments must enable new models of
Equity issues must be front and centre and
innovation that draw on the ingenuity and lived
questions as to who benefits from this finance
experiences of urban residents.
need to be asked.
Autonomous models of developing solutions
Services and systems: shift from probability
emphasise rapid cycles of experimentation and
to embracing uncertainty. Less than a third of
put communities in the driver’s seat. These deliver
cities participating in a recent survey claimed to
frugal solutions that are good enough as opposed
have integrated climate adaptation and resilience
to the best possible. Known as ‘jugaad’ in India,
planning within vital urban systems and services
‘gambiarra’ in Brazil and ‘jua kali’ in Kenya, large
(such as transport, energy, water, sanitation and
corporations are adopting this model, which is
health). Where the resilience of these sectors is
demonstrating value for risk reduction as well.14
considered, it is usually in relation to engineering
solutions and hard infrastructure. One illustration comes from Raipur city, India
where a local innovator rigged up small solar
To manage disruption, those in charge of running
panels to batteries from old motorcycles to
these systems should be trained in management
develop a back-up generator. It ensures continued
processes that enable flexible planning and nimble
electricity supply through blackouts. This is
decision making. Such adaptive management
essential for reducing health risks from heatwaves
entails an “iterative process for continually
that are debilitating the region. Such examples
improving management by learning from how
abound, from alternative local electricity grids in
current management affects the system”.13
Gaza to makeshift stoves for boiling drinking water
We see glimpses of this in cities trying to manage during floods in Bangladesh.
the COVID-19 crisis where access to public
More immediately, the COVID-19 crisis has
spaces and transport systems is permitted and
brought these principles to the fore. New social
denied in concert with the infection’s spread or
distancing solutions for aeroplanes include using
containment. Other approaches for making
a reverse middle seat. In makeshift sanitation
decisions in times of uncertainty that must be
chambers, water pumps and showerheads are
adopted include ‘tactical urbanism’ (planning for
rigged to spray disinfectant on people just before
the short term using low-risk approaches) and
they head into public areas. Also, some of these
‘strategic ambiguity’ (planned transitions to
IIED Briefing

principles are embodied in the radical changes in
vaccine development protocols, with the use of
rapid, parallel and adaptive development phases
and abridged regulatory processes.15
Donors and governments can create an enabling
environment for this model of innovation. They can
periodically organise challenge funds; train staff
running urban resilience initiatives to recognise and
scale-up such innovations; and reward autonomous
innovators and link them into networks. An example
is the Honey Bee network, a volunteer effort that
gathers and disseminates innovative, grassroot
ideas and traditional knowledge.
Data: shift from static to dynamic,
decentralised information. Data and
information on risk is the bedrock of building
effective resilience. But existing ways of acquiring
and analysing data tend to be static, arduous and
expensive. This is why decentralised data and
information that emanates from those most at risk
is essential for dealing with upheaval.
This could entail the use of ‘big data’ collected
from mobile-phone use and other cost-effective,
widely available information and communication
devices. Although ethical concerns about privacy
remain, governments have used such
technologies widely in the COVID-19 crisis for
contact tracing and other purposes.16
More could be done to mainstream the use of big
data in responding to other hazards and crises.
For instance, experiments have shown that
authorities can successfully analyse information
from mobile phones to determine the exposure
and vulnerability of hard-to-reach populations to
disasters.17 But governments and international
donors have yet to use such approaches at scale
to build resilience.
Apart from big data, insights from ground-up
self-enumeration exercises undertaken by those
living in informal settlements have had impact in
countries worldwide. These rapid, structured
surveys undertaken by slum communities shed
light on the physical, social and financial
characteristics of areas (essential for managing
risk) that government surveys frequently ignore.18
Knowledge
Administrations in cities such as Cape Town, Products
Accra and Mumbai have used this data in decision
making. Other cities should follow suit. Methods
resembling this are proving valuable in Dharavi, The International Institute
Mumbai during the COVID-19 crisis. Teams of for Environment and
local volunteers familiar with the neighbourhood Development (IIED)
promotes sustainable
have gone house to house testing residents and development, linking local
gathering information. The tactic has been priorities to global
indispensable in containing the virus in this vast challenges. We support
informal settlement to date.19 some of the world’s most
vulnerable people to
Fostering disruptive resilience strengthen their voice in
decision making.
Implicit within the arguments made in this briefing
is that to progress towards disruptive resilience, we
need a keen understanding of the institutional, Contact
Aditya V. Bahadur
financial, political, social and behavioural factors
aditya.bahadur@iied.org
inhibiting the required shifts. This effort can be
supported by researchers highlighting cases where 80–86 Gray’s Inn Road
impediments in adopting this new way of thinking London, WC1X 8NH
and acting have been overcome and the disruptive United Kingdom
practices described here have been adopted. Tel: +44 (0)20 3463 7399
www.iied.org
The current COVID-19 crisis provides a unique
IIED welcomes feedback
opportunity for investigators to study the via: @IIED and
dynamics of disruptive risks and responses to www.facebook.com/theiied
them. This research should be increased to foster
the right policies and practices that engender ISBN 978-1-78431-833-8
disruptive resilience. Building this body of
knowledge will ensure that vulnerable This briefing has been
communities in the cities of the global South will produced with the generous
not just function but will flourish through the support of Irish Aid and Sida
unanticipated shocks and stresses they will (Sweden)
increasingly face.
Aditya V. Bahadur and David Dodman
Aditya V. Bahadur is a principal researcher in IIED’s Human
Settlements Group. David Dodman is director of IIED’s Human
Settlements Group.
The authors would like to thank Lucy Earle, David Satterthwaite,
Thomas Tanner and Blane Harvey for their support and advice.

Notes
1
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Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Field, CB, Barros, V, Stocker, TF, Qin, D, Dokken, DJ, Ebi, KL,
Mastrandrea, MD, Mach, KJ, Plattner, G-K, Allen, SK, Tignor, M and Midgley, PM). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York,
USA. / 2 Mazzoleni, S, Turchetti, G and Ambrosino, N (2020) The COVID-19 outbreak: From “black swan” to global challenges and
opportunities. Pulmonology 26(3) 117. / 3 Adams, K (2018) Resilience Building At Risk. Acclimatise. bit.ly/32bHXNA / 4 Dodman, D, Leck, H,
Rusca, M, and Colenbrander, S (2017) African urbanisation and urbanism: Implications for risk accumulation and reduction. International journal
of disaster risk reduction 26, 7–15. / 5 Satterthwaite, D, Archer, D, Colenbrander, S, Dodman, D, Hardoy, J, Mitlin, D and Patel, S (2020) Building
resilience to climate change in informal settlements. One Earth 2(2) 143–156. / 6 Soanes, M (2018) Delivering climate finance at the local
level: the Gungano Urban Poor Fund. IIED, London. bit.ly/327sQog / 7 Parasuram, S (2020) COVID-19: Involving social workers key to building
on early gains in Dharavi. The Hindu. bit.ly/32fFjWO / 8 Bahadur, A and Tanner, T (forthcoming) Enhancing Urban Resilience Trap: Pivots for
tackling climate change in cities of the Global South. Routledge, Abingdon. / 9 Climate Bonds Initiative (2020) How to issue a green city bond.
/ 10 Smialek, J (2020) Fed Gearing Up to Help Smaller Local Governments. New York Times. https://nyti.ms/31hiYsX / 11 Global Facility for
Disaster Risk Reduction (2020) Land Value Capture. World Bank. bit.ly/3hiZI3O / 12 Shakya, C, Soanes, M and Smith, B (2019) Calling for
business unusual: reforming climate finance. IIED, London. bit.ly/3l8L2q2 / 13 Bunnefeld, N, Redpath, S and Irvine, J (2015) A review of
approaches to adaptive management. Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report No. 795. / 14 Radjou, N, Prabhu, J and Ahuja, S (2011)
Use Jugaad to Innovate Faster, Cheaper, Better. Harvard Business Review. bit.ly/2EsKHO7 / 15 Le, TT, Andreadakis, Z, Kumar, A, Roman, RG,
Tollefsen, S, Saville, M and Mayhew, S (2020) The COVID-19 vaccine development landscape. Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 19(5) 305–306.
/ 16 Servick, K (2020) Cellphone tracking could help stem the spread of coronavirus. Is privacy the price? Science. bit.ly/31hAhKs / 17 Letouze,
E, Vinck, P, Schwarz, B, Sala, S, Sangkoyo, D and Tellman, T (2015) Big Data for Climate Resilience. Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, MIT Media
Lab and Overseas Development Institute, London. / 18 Satterthwaite, D (2011) What role for low-income communities in urban areas in
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workers key to building on early gains in Dharavi. The Hindu. bit.ly/32h7Dbq

Download the pdf at http://pubs.iied.org/17766IIED