PROBABILITIES ‘The probability is « fascinating subject yet intriguing area of mathematics. It has held the interes of mathematicians over the past two or three centuries. Nowadays, probability has far-reaching ang important applications in many fields of human endeavor. People working in annuities, insurance, and the physical and social sciences find probability a great help in their work. ‘There is always @ likelihood that something will or will not occur under certain events. A gambler figuring his odds and 2 statistician compiling tables, say, on mortality and the like, are examples of how probability can be put to work. sts, engineers, businessmen—all have occasions for counting and calculating whether something will or will not happen. These people must have a working knowledge 6.1 Sample Space and Event the sample space 5 for its elements (H,7), hence, S = (H,T}. Each probable outcome will correspond to exactly one element of set S. $= (H,7} is now our sample space for the experiment. An element in fumple pce is nown as sample point. In $= {1,7}, H is a sample point of the sample space; likewise, T is also a sample point. Consider the following experiment: Take an honest die. Roll it once. Consider the dots on the six faces of the die as elements of a sample space. Therefore, our Set D = {1,2,3,4,5,6} is the sample space. A sample space may be either finite or infinite. The general theory of probability tackles with both finite and infinite sample spaces. For our course we shall confine ourselves to finite spaces. A sample space is finite when we can count the number of elements in the space. To illustrate, let's study the tree graph diagram. A tree graph gives a systematic way of listing and counting the elements in order that no outcome is missed. It is an outgrowth of the Cartesian Product set of ordered pairs. Consider the Cartesian Product in flipping « peso coin once (denoted by C,) and a $0-centavo coin next (C).C, = (HT) represents the sample space for the peso coin and C,™ {H,T) the sample space for the $0-centavo coin. We can determine their Cartesian Product, Cpx y= (HT) x {HT} = (GH), HD, (TH), (T.)Possible Outoomes — m, H-H ott z H-T H t—<— T-H T T-T We begin at the origin, denoted : by ©, and move to the right. There are two possible outcomes for Sere ears oo ek ZA then ip a S0-cntavooin (C9, which toss ws, poable outcomes regardless result © can list all the possible outcomes by tracing all the paths from lt torght ofthe tree graph. The raul is sma tothe ordered to pir of Gv Ce mt Event is a basic term in the theory of probabil Which is closely related to the concept of sample spect. An event is refers to a subset of the sample space.” " . Jot ve aim & sample space for an experiment using a red die and « white die, From our knowledge of Cartesian products, we first write down the elements of C, and those of C.. The elements im Cr tee 1,2,3,4,5,6 and those in C, are also 1,2,3,4,5,6). Why? Where do we get these numbers? Forming the Cartesian Product of the sets, C, x Cy we get the sample space of ordered pair elements shown in the table below. irs i throwing the red and fice once. Each of these combinations is a sample point of the sample space of the experiment. Generally, an event consists of sample points; for a to outcomes in the experiment. The “sum” referred to may be (2,3), (3,2), (1.4) or (4,1). Each of thet tnple point i an event ofthe sample space. Thi, & sample apace canbe ‘aks ta the nivel et ‘eal events in the experiment since t contains all probable outcomes expected from i.6.1.1 Fundamental Principles of Counting The fundamental principle of counting explains that if a job J can be done in ,, | ‘umber of ways and another job J; can be done in n, number of ways, then the number of ya." that both jobs can be done in the specified order is mn) ways The rule can be extended when a series of jobs is to be made in successful and i Tequired to find the number of ways these jobs can be made, Thus, these 1 jobs can be j, 1 Piyy...Ny Oifferent ways, Example 1 How many 3 digit numbers can be made using the five digits 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 when (2) repetitions are not allowed, and (©) repetitions are allowed? Solution: (2) There are five choices for the first digit, 4 for the next digit, and 3 for the third digit 5x 4x3 = 60 three-digit numbers can be formed. No number is repeated. (©) With repetitions, there are 5 choices forthe first digit, also 5 forthe second, and again 5 for the third. Hence, 5 x 5 x $= 125 three-digit numbers can be formed. Repetition of a number ‘was made, Example 2 A girl has 3 coins in her pocket, one 25-centavo coin, 8 peso coin, and a 5-centavo coin from which she will draw two coins to pay some candies, She first draws out a coin then she takes another one. Construct a tree, graph to show the probable outcomes. Solution: There are 3 possibiltes in drawing out the first coin and only two in the next coin, Can you explain why? We produce set containing six possibilities in a tree graph. See illustration below. Possible outcomes q P-4 oo where p= peso n p-n 9=25 comtavos P q-P. ”= 5 centavos ° a : n q-n P ae. " =, a 80In the experiment, it can be noticed that itis performed without replacement. This means that ara coin is drawn, it isnot returned inde tne pecker "After drawing the first coin, two are if inside fFOm which the second wil be drawn From this, we can say there are three in drawing Coin and only two for the second, such that 3 x 2 = 6 possibilities. 612 Permutations Let us have problem which finds out ways of arranging & given set of objects. For example In how many ways can 40 students line up atthe cashiers counter in paying their tuition fe? J Row many automotil plats can 2 letters ofthe alphabet, followed by a 3-diit umber be ‘We need to know the basics of permutations to answer such puzzling questions. A permutation refers to a set of objects ii of the said objects in a ae of objects is any arrangement objects To “permute” 7 things means to arrange them in a definite or special order. The pattem of arrangement is specific, not just any order of arrangement. 6.1.2.1 Permutation of Objects Taken All Together We want to determine how many ways we can arrange the letters of the word dog. Since dog has three letters, there are three positions to be filled up by the letters d, o and g. We can choose from three letters to fill up the first position, leaving two for the second. After the second letter, the last position is filled up by the one remaining letter. Using the fundamental principle of counting, there are (3) (2) (1) = 6 possible arrangements. From this we can generalize that given » different things, they can be arranged m (n-1) (n-2)...(3) (2) (1) different ways. This product of whole numbers from 1 to 7 is known as 7 factorial, designated by n! Notice how the factorial of the numbers from 1 to 5 is obtained: | n nl How obtained 1 1 1 2 2 2xi 3 6 3x2x1 4 24 4x3x2x1 5 120 Sx4x3x2x1 ‘Thus, the number of permutations P of n distinct objects is P = n! Example 1 In how many specific ways can three books, Statistics, Algebra and Biology, be ‘arranged on a shelf?possible arrangement, ABC 4 —, —B ACB =e BAC ° ba mA CAB CBA Counting the pow arangerents, wo have 6 ways: ABC, ACB. BAC, BCA. CAB, wg CBA. ‘Avother suggested solution is studying further the postions of the letters in the i graph. From the diagram we can reason out as follows: “The tree spaces on the shelf can be filed in the following manner: The first space can te filed in cree different ways, that i, it can fled with eny of the three books = A, B, or C: Gn feo books van be used for the second shelf. After filing the first and second spaces, only one book is left to be placed. ‘Showing the spaces in a table form, we have pees ‘Through the process of multiplication, we produce 3 x 2x 1 = 6. There are 6 ways of arranging three books on a shelf. If an activity can be socomplished by performing sub-activities and if the fit of this can be done in p ways and the second in = ‘ways, then the activity can be accomplished in p x m ways. Example 2 ‘How many different arrangements of letters can we form from the word MAPHY? ‘Solution: Since MAPHY has five letters, P=5! = Sehede2el = 120 arrangementsgxample 3 If there are 3 routes from from Pasay to Makati, how nay different routes maybe taken in pena oe preety ins 8 routes from Paraflaque to Makati via Pasay? solution Since there are 3 routes from Parataque to Pasay and 8 routes from Pasay to Maka, ts the trip of Parafiaque to makati via Pasay may be made in 3 x 8 or 24 ways 6.1.2.2 Permutations of n Objects Taken r at a Time The formula for the number of permutatio jects from a set of n different objects, taken rata time, without replacements is, raahtortrles ——— | Permutations: Taken r at a Time ca of n Objects Taken r at 4 Thus, »P, is also equal to n (n~ 1) (n-2)...(n- (r=1)... The above simplication of the formula is helpful when nl (n - r) C, ways. Using the fundamental principle of counting, the tou ° "Sumber of ways to select 3 men and 4 women to fil the postions will be the product of ty ‘combinations. ‘two 10! x 67 XH S$ ——— nN3t 314! 10+9°8+7! x 796+5+4! TNe3e21 Be2eleal Using cancellation, we get Wh g% y= 503080705 = 4,200 ways (©) To find the combination where 3 or 4 of the taken applicants are to be should find the sum of the number of ways of filing the vacancies with 3 men and 4 mene” Hence, 10s x 124+ Cox Cy = (120 x35) + (210x 35) = 11,550 ways Example 5 Determine the aumber of committees formed from 18 persoasif3 people form « ssoso: Wl) = —— = 816 committees MASI 6.1.3.2 Combination in a ser, The total number of Be st time, and 90.00 up tom ata Gago ings taken sucessively Ia atime, 2a time, 3 porns REESE enn {a how many ways can «teacher eign at mot sx of her students to doa project? Solution: C=2-1=2—1= 64-163 ways. Example 7 at (8) ‘How many committees can be if it fe: formed from 5 peopl, ifthe committees cbiist of 1, 2,3, C=2"-1=2'-1=31 committees 6.1.3.3 Combination of n objects taken all at the same time From the preceding examples, we can deduce that the number of combinations C of n things taken 7 at atime can be formulated as follows: Combination of n objects taken all at the same time Example 8 To evaluate sCs, wo will have Example 9 In how many ways can seven members form a committee of 7? Solution: C71 committon 89EXERCISES 6.1 tructor; Course: ns, OU | Namet, Seetion: Ratiogs Inn 1 How mary possible choices has 4 student in choosing his schedule among, 3 Math schedules, 4 Engise j schedules, and 2 Botany schodules, Do a tree diagram 2 Fecal of « big eatery plans a menu with a choice of meat (Mf), chicken (C), ree (R), 200% (5) ' seafood (W), and dessert (1), (8) Construct a tree graph using four courses in order without dessert. i ‘ (b) Which of the above menu items constitute a complete hunch? Explain your choice 3, How many different signals can be made by arranging the banners in a line if 3 banners are red, 4 are | white, and 2 are blue? ‘ 4 In how many different ways can a student vary her attire if she has eight polo shirts and s pants. 5; How many 6-letter words (not necessarily with sense) composed of 4 different consonants and 2 i different vowels can be formed from the English Alphabet? 6. A bracelet needs 10 chains of different colors In how many ways can the chains be arranged or joined ' to form a bracelet? : ra tRifcrMaY ways can 12 persons be seated in s roundtable if the host insists ists in seating on his | favorite 8. Evaluate the following: MPs — O)wPro 9. Show that: (0) Ps™ Pb) Po yPy 10. How many basketball teams can be formed from 4 centers, 5 guards, and 3 forwards? 11. In how many ways can two men speaking different dialects be selected from 8 Tocanos and 9 Tagalogs? ee 12. In how many ways can a Barangay Captain invite six barangay tanods for launch? 13. A decagon has 10 sides. How many diagonals can be drawn in it? 14, Prove that (= 6(/C2) 15, How many ways can 4 cadets be selected for patrol uty from a group of25 cadets? : 16. How many committees of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7, or 8 members can be taken from 8 section presidents in « certain college? 17, How many groups of 3 can be formed out of 10 boys?62 Laws of Probability Probability means “chance” orbured to the term “probability” jp tethood that an event may occur. (Because of the different iseas tate the objective BPPTORCh, others take the neni dificult to understand meering), Some Hiroouning and applications ‘ake the philosophical al hay ach some “eee bemprashon At present, the ates holds that probability is apriccnc’ | ih Most popular interpretation of probability. This point of In this course, we shall deal wit adi ‘There are two widely accepted abi in bjsiveapproch whch leads to some weil epicaons. 6.2.1 A Priori or Classical Definition of Probability The a priori or classical definition of probability explains that ec explains probability is taken in terms cat my ny pe a et a bay han ie a ef aesnctheady owe ‘event will happen is found by finding the quotient of h divided while the probability Q that it will not happen will be found by following the same procedure, thus Probability that the event - will not happen ht one of two possibilities can happen, that is, the coin will ether be “bead head or tail are two mutually exclusive events. By this, it denotes that happen in tossing the coin once. Furthermore, if an event cannot fil If a coin is flip once, only up” or “tail up”. The outcome of a only one of two alternative events.can to happen, P= 1 and Q=0. We can now deduce from the foregoing facts that if implies cortsinty a sure event The event will never fail to occur. 0, it implies uncertainty. It can never happen. die is thrown once to : faces on the die, the an event cannot fail to happen, P = 1; it Conversely, if an event cannot happen, P represent a single tral. Only one of the six faces of the die can tum up. Since there are six probability that any of the six faces will appear in one throw isP= 1. 6 i: illustrates the fact that six events are equally likely six faces can appear throw. The event that any of the ax Det. ie will appear in exch "24 are mutually exclusive. No two on the probebility, From a regular Let uw tv an example on ow 1 cli POA ling tn care Wt te4 jacks, 4 ‘There are four of each kind in a regular deck of $2 cards, 4 kings, 4 queens, het ‘Tus, inthe deck there are four chances t9"draw King. a wall oa there are four chances 10 ray, i Excluding the four cards of the same kind, there are 48 te dock. “| i i l i 7? 4 4 ‘To draw a king, we have P = 4+48 23° ‘The chance of drawing « ten follows the same solution. Why? The probebilty thet « king will Hot be dry, willbe “a “ 2 : 4+48 52 13 ‘and the probability of failing to draw a ten is likewise 12/13. ‘Does this follow the idea that P + Q = 1? Explain. Subs ie maby oa tpg tt po cba nd at oe Furthermore, if P= 4, then Q = 1-%4= %. Ifthe probability of drawing a king from a regular deck of cards is 1/13, then Q=1-113 = 12113 Dee _moeriagtrppcote be Probability based on statistical dua statistics. The application of probability in statistical records ig nova amr tne bong to this pe of Let us the Suppose years had a total of :From the same instructor based on the given statistical data sbove, can you find the probability of gotest geting B,C, or D? The empirical definition connotes that the ratio of h/f becomes obscure because fs infinitely large. important use of empirical probability is ite epbbeion in i age sagen we cated mortality tables which give statistics about the age at death of a large number of people. records show the life history of over 100,000 persons of both sexes starting at ages 10 10100 years. These data are found in the Actwaries Table of Mortality. : ‘Acaaries, 2s insurance people refer to this table every time a person takes insurance policy from = insurance company. From the table the insurance people known how many people live from a certain age to reach a certain age of life. Example 1 | Soe abe Carat id boy is insured and his poicy matures when he becomes 30 years old. | Referring to the table, we find that 95.965 persons are alive at 16, and 18,262 persons are alive at 30. Using | these figures to find the probability that a 16-year old boy may reach 30, we find the ratio of those living at 30 to 86,262 those living at 16. Hence, 86,262 P= = 0.89 or 89%. There is 89% probability that a boy at 16 will each his 30" birthday. From the knowledge of P + Q- 1, we can also determine the probability that the boy might die before he is 30, thus, P= 1,000.89 = O11 oF 11%. We can now determine from the above examples the so-called mathematical expectation of events. Hive designate E as the mathematical expectation of event and A the amount expected from the occurence gM ovens then, E = Px 4, and P should be found first before we can get the mathematical expectation E Example 2 ine ig SUPPOSE. person holds 1 ticket out of 200 tickets sold in a raffle. His probebility of winning a ree is 1/200 = 0.005. What is the mathematical expectation of each holder of | ticket if the winner inte ‘Rective a cash of P1000? P=0.005 A=P1000.00 E=0.005 x P1000 = PS.00 Example 3 ; ‘A man is insured at his present age. According to the mortality table, the probability that he will Tae: 5 yori 0.78 or 78% Ie bys a poly of 10,000 which hs becatnary en ft Be i Sit death, what is the mathematical expectation ofthe beneficiary? Since the of living within "=" 8078, then the probability that he dies before that period of tine willbe P= 1.00-°0.78.< Oras on esP=0.22 A=P10,000 E= 0.22 x P10,000 = P2,200 Payments made by the insured to the company. It may also mean a semestral or an annual premium based on the agreement of the company and the insured.| Cut here EXERCISES 6.2.1 Names, Section:_____—Rating:_ _ Instructor: Course: : Date: 1. Insurance records show that of 100,000 men who are alive at 20 only 45,000 live up to 30 years. What is the probability that a man will die before he reaches his 3 birthday? 2. If there are 20 boys and 15 girls in a mathematics class and the teacher calls one student taken at random from the pack of 35 shuffled classcards, what is the probability that the student called is a male? That is a female? : 3, There are 3 blue balls and 4 red balls in a box. What is the probability of drawing (a) 1 blue ball drawn at random from the box? (b) of drawing a red ball? 4. OF12 applicants for a teaching position, seven are males and five are females. Find the probability that the one picked is a male. What is probability that the one selected is a female instead? $. If the probability that a 40-year old man will still live at 65 is 37%, what is the probability that the man will die before the age of 65 years? 6. An insurance policy of P25,000 will be paid to the estate of Juan dela Cruz. According to the Actuaries Table of Mortality, 93,268 are alive at the age of 20, and 86,262 are alive at the age of 30. If Dela Cruz is now 20 and he dies within 10 years, what is the mathematical expectation of his family? 7. Ona mortality table used in insurance firms, there are 35,000 persons living at the age of 40 years and 28,000 are still living at 55 years. What is the probability that Mr. Ong, who is now 40 years old, will not live to be 55 years old?