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COMMERCIAL AVIATION

GROWTH AND FORECAST

2020 – 2039

During last decade, commercial aviation growth has undergone an extraordinary 

renewal process: operating costsMORE
have been reduced, unpro table routes have
INFORMATION

been eliminated, and older less fuel-e cient and less emission-e cient aircraft
have been grounded.

Besides, something that we have all witnessed, and which has contributed to the
increase in airlines’ operating revenues, has been the breakdown and
fragmentation of the services o ered to the customer.

For this reason, it has been possible to lower ticket prices, democratising access to
commercial aviation to a broader public and, in turn, maximising the airlines’
pro ts.

In this article, we analyse the growth of commercial aviation from 2020 to 2039,
reviewing the demand for aviation personnel, the growth in deliveries of new
aircraft, or the creation of new routes in di erent geographical regions, among
others.

Post COVID-19 Aviation Growth Scenario

The health crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has

been unprecedented and has shaken economic and
productive expectations in all sectors worldwide. Even so,
some light has already been shed on the uncertainty in the
short and medium term.

According to IMF reports published last June, from 2021

onwards, the economy is expected to recover the pace of
progress of 2019. As re ected in the table above, it is
expected that, for next year, there will be an average positive
variation in real GDP of 5.4 percentage points.

Therefore, the commercial aviation growth forecasts

presented below will eventually become e ective in the
medium term.

Global Aviation, a consolidated industry

Although commercial aviation, historically, has been characterized by recurring

cycles of boom and bust, it is a fact that we speak of one of the most consolidated
industries today.

Commercial aviation has experienced a period of unprecedented consolidation

with three signi cant mergers in the last ve years. Also, the year 2019 was the
eleventh consecutive year of pro tability for the global airline industry. This goal
has set a new record in the sector.

In the future, commercial aviation is expected to become a capital-intensive

industry, generating substantial economic returns and sustainable pro ts.

GLOBAL COMMERCIAL AVIATION GROWTH

2020 – 2039

Based on the fact that commercial aviation is a global industry and is experiencing
continued high growth, some markets are emerging on a signi cantly higher trend.

For this reason, and based on the annual reports of Boeing and Airbus  published
this 2020, we are going to analyse the forecasts for the future of commercial
aviation at a global level, segmenting the di erent regions and breaking down
speci c data for each area.

But rst, let us take a look at the di erent reasons that explain this increase in
commercial ights and, consequently, this exponential growth in commercial
aviation.

Why is commercial aviation continually growing?

Although we have already given you some clues, such as the democratisation of the
price of air tickets, the truth is that the most crucial reason for the revolution in
commercial aviation is to be found on the Asian continent.

While in the United States or Europe, commercial aviation has already enjoyed a
great deal of normalization for years; in Asia, it has been experiencing a real boom
in the last decade. The economic awakening of historically less developed countries
has proved to be a vital driver for the development of Asian and international
commercial aviation.

Likewise, the economic growth of the aviation sector in Asia has seen the rise of the
middle class with the higher nancial capacity to y. Thus, in addition to higher
purchasing power, there has been a signi cant rejuvenation of individuals belonging
to the predominantly middle class.

It is expected that by 2030, two-thirds of the world’s middle class will be located in
the Asia-Paci c region; so it is vital to consider the Asian market when nding a job
as an airline pilot because of the need for new professionals.

AERONAUTICAL PERSONNEL DEMAND FORECAST

The demand for aviation personnel to meet the growth of commercial aviation
globally is imminent; this is something we have con rmed in recent years.

Moreover, the gures are growing all the time, as air travel has become the most
e cient means of transport for passengers and goods.

According to Airbus’ GMF 2019 study (Global Market Forecast), over the next two
decades, the demand for commercial aviation professionals, segmented by region,
will reach the following gures:

North America Latin America

72,000 pilots 48,000 pilots

77,000 technicians 64,000 technicians

Middle East Africa Russia-CIS

50,000 pilots 21,000 pilots 22,000 pilots

52,000 technicians 25,000 technicians 27,000 technicians

Asia-Paci c Europe

223,000 pilots 114,000 pilots

260,000 technicians 135,000 technicians

Pilots’ Career Future

in Commercial Aviation

As the Airbus CEO, Fabrice Brégier said at the company’s annual GMF 2019
presentation

‘The GMF is focused on meeting the sector future needs to facilitate the ow of
growth without hindering its development. Airbus’ economists and data analysts
study the numbers of past years and extrapolate the conclusions, taking into
account the current and future context surrounding commercial aviation’.

Based on using these numbers most e ectively, to improve the reliability and
validity of the analyses carried out by Airbus, a fundamental part is to check and
question the methodologies used with the investigations carried out against the
actual gures of passengers and airlines.

In this way, a realistic vision is identi ed for the growth of air transport over the
next 20 years, supported by rigorous data, comprehensive graphs and industry
knowledge. These analyses are promising for the future, and are decisive in the
choice of obtain the ATPL license.

On the following map you can see the expected demand for aeronautical services
by region. In addition, the commercial aviation industry value is shown in billions of
dollars for each geographic area.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION PASSENGER GROWTH

In the last 15 years, the number of passengers in commercial aviation has

doubled. In 2018, for example, 4.3 billion people travelled with one of the 1,300
airlines currently operating. Also, more than 24,000 commercial aircraft took o
around the world, making more than 38 million ights, in just one year.

According to the UNWTO, tourism accounts for 10% of global GDP; so with 57% of
the world’s cross-border tourists travelling by air, this is one of the primary sources
of wealth today.

About new routes, the trend is towards sustainability, eliminating less e cient
ways and opening many new short-haul commercial aviation routes, on internal
routes in China, and connecting routes between Europe and Africa.

For the next 20 years, Airbus forecasts average annual growth of 4.3% globally,
with growth being most active in the early years of the period and weakest in the
latter. The regions that will contribute most to this rate are the Asia-Paci c and the
Middle East.

In the following infographic, you can see the average annual growth of passenger
tra c in commercial aviation, segmented by region. Also, the bar graphs show, in
a very visual way, the comparison between the volume of passengers in 2018 and
those predicted for 2038.

INCREASE IN THE WORLD’S AIRCRAFT FLEET

Another clear consequence of the unstoppable growth of commercial aviation is the

increase in the number of aircraft in service that is expected over the next two
decades.

If at the beginning of 2019, there were almost 21,000 Airbus commercial aircraft in
service, this gure is expected to double by 2038, reaching nearly 45,000 aircraft.
According to Airbus, more than 38,000 new aeroplanes are scheduled to be
delivered, some of which will replace the older ones and serve to modernize the
world’s eet over the next 20 years.

In the following graph, we can see how the continuity of only 6,500 of the active
aircraft is foreseen at the beginning of 2019. The rest will be replaced by new, more
e cient and modern models, with consequent growth for the components
manufacturing sector, for example.

THE GROWTH OF COMMERCIAL AVIATION IN EUROPE

European political uncertainty casts a shadow that is di cult to

ignore, fuelled in large part by instability in the past and future
elections, the impact of the Brexit agreement, the shift towards
trade protectionism, and concerns about terrorism and security.

Still, despite the di culties, the European commercial aviation

market has remained stable in recent years. The reasons for its
persistence are an increase in the ow of money, improved
access to credit, a decrease in the tax burden and increased
con dence among businesses and consumers.

According to Airbus’ latest report, air tra c in Europe has grown

by 5.7% per year and has increased its share by 6%, making up a
third of all ight capacity to, from and within Europe by 2018.

The airlines in the European network carried 4.3% more

passengers than in the previous year. Besides, low-cost airlines
in Europe recorded an increase in passenger tra c of 12.4%.

This increase in air tra c has occurred in contrast to the growth

of European GDP, of only 1.8 %; which indicates that it is only
one more element driving the increase in local tra c. Real GDP
is expected to grow by 1.5% per year in the period 2018-2038,
in uenced by demographic developments in Europe.

In the coming years, the European Union faces major long-term

challenges such as scal and nancial union, as well as the need
for structural reforms in the areas of labour, pensions and
market liberalisation.

The rise of low-cost airlines,

a major boost to the Global Aviation industry

Perhaps the most surprising strategic development in Europe in recent years has
been the rapid expansion of the low-cost long-distance business model.

For example, Norwegian continues to expand its long-distance services, adding

bases in cities such as Paris and Barcelona for operations to North America; it
recently launched the rst low-cost service from London to Singapore.

The airlines in the European network are operating low-cost long-haul ights
through their subsidiary airlines; for example, Eurowings, a subsidiary of
Lufthansa, has been increasing this type of ying for several years.

Also LEVEL, the new long-distance low-cost operator, which belongs to International
Airlines Group, has started to operate such ights. This fact is also the case of Air
France-KLM, which has also announced plans to launch low-cost, long-haul ight
operations next year.

The airlines Norwegian, Eurowings, Level, Wow Air, Canadian WestJet or Air
Canada Rouge, have increased their low-cost ight operations the most. They are
also the leaders in demand for airline pilots for long-distance ights between
Europe and North America.

It is a fact that low-cost commercial aviation will support more than 48% of total
ight capacity in the coming years.

Low-cost airlines’ strategic evolution

in European Commercial Aviation

The major low-cost airlines continue their incursion into Germany and France,
where penetration has been relatively low. Ryanair managed to establish itself in
Germany, together with Lufthansa.

EasyJet is now doing so in France, becoming the second-largest low-cost company

in France, and in particular the largest at Charles de Gaulle airport, where they had
been reluctant to accept this type of airline.

The willingness of low-cost airlines to move beyond the traditional model for
additional growth is enabling them to give a real boost to the growth of European
and global commercial aviation.

Scheduled airlines are challenged to compete with low-cost carriers in short-haul

markets. In response, they are using their short-haul ights for long-haul
passengers through their airports at route connection points.

At the same time, airlines are moving more short-haul and point-to-point ights to
their low-cost subsidiaries, to compete more e ciently with independent low-cost
airlines.

The wide variety of business models that the airlines are experiencing are leading
these companies to o er more ights at lower prices. Thus, passengers are taking
advantage of these lower fares to y more, which increases the demand for
aeroplanes and promotes the growth of commercial aviation.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Middle Eastern airlines are well-positioned to compete for tra c

connecting the continents of Asia, Africa and Europe; because
80% of the world’s population lives within eight hours of the
Persian Gulf area.

This fact allows the airlines of the Middle East to operate

numerous ights in their centres that, in the absence of this type
of airlines, would not be able to count on these direct itineraries.

The growth prospects for commercial aviation in the Middle

East are optimistic. For example, Southeast Asia has a potential
of 1.8 billion passengers. This gure is driven by the actual
forecast of a 2.9% annual increase in GDP over the next 20
years.

The Middle East’s economic projection is very positive thanks to

its signi cant oil resources, its proximity to emerging Asian
economies that are major energy consumers, its growing
tourism boom and its strategic geopolitical location.

Although growth is expected to be slightly less notable than in

the other regions, commercial aviation in the Middle East is
equally strong in and around Southeast Asia and Africa.

Increased demand for travel to and from these regions is a

crucial factor behind Boeing’s forecast for the region of 3,350
aircraft in the coming years.

Oil prices, a critical factor in the

development of aviation in the Middle East

Low oil prices challenged many of the region’s economies between 2015 and 2016,
resulting in government budget de cits, postponement of infrastructure
investments and reduced foreign investment and economic activity within the area.

Currently, energy market analysts are forecasting a recovery in oil prices to levels
that will alleviate many of these problems; this will help to encourage both long-
haul routes to and from the Middle East and short-haul ights within the region.

The challenge of entering the

Global Aviation Market

The challenge of being able to access a market share in global commercial aviation
is nothing new. Middle Eastern airlines have faced signi cant opposition from
established operators in many of the countries they serve; however, they have
realised the leadership of independent carriers.

Recent developments in the United States, the United Kingdom and elsewhere
indicate that a return to more protectionist policies is possible.

While economic and commercial interests oppose such policies, they are
contributing to capital investments, the search for strategic alliances and the
coming together of the region’s airlines to achieve their goals.

GROWTH OF COMMERCIAL AVIATION IN LATIN AMERICA

Economic growth in Latin America is as varied as the continent

is vast. Thus, we nd a marked recession in the countries of the
interior, as opposed to the coastal states, such as Brazil,
Colombia, Peru or Chile, which have positive growth forecasts.

On the other hand, Mexico sees its economy as subordinated to

trade with the USA through capital in ows and asset
remittances.

Despite speci c long-term challenges, such as the need for

infrastructure or the marked inequality of the population, the
growth prospects for commercial aviation in Latin America and
the Caribbean are positive.

As a positive indicator of the excellent health of the Latin

American economy, its GDP is estimated to increase by an
average of 2.9% per year until 2038, as well as an increase in
trade of 3.2% per year for the same period.

Long distances with a poor

infrastructure

Due to its large size and the real limitations of land

transport, commercial aviation in Latin America plays a vital
role. With 60% of its roads unpaved, South America covers
almost 22,000,000 km2.

In recent years, economic factors have meant that domestic

tra c growth has only achieved a rate of 1.9% per year over
the past ve years.

Internal tra c growth grew somewhat faster, with an average

annual growth rate of 4.1% over the same period, appearing
less a ected by economic uctuations in the area and even by
some of the more global cyclical downturns.

Part of the reason for these di erent growth rates is that as

carriers face problems in national markets, they try to use
spare capacity within the region.

Steps to increase air tra c

IATA reported in early 2019 that Cartagena’s Rafael Núñez International Airport has
cut its fares by less than half, from $92 to $38, and that international arrivals are
increasing, which is having a positive impact on the local economy.

Since the rate was decreased in 2015, the number of international passengers has
increased by 26%, and tourist arrivals in Cartagena have increased by 38%. A
more competitive cost framework has also allowed airlines to establish new ways,
with the introduction of ights to Atlanta, Amsterdam, Fort Lauderdale and Madrid
from this airport.

As with deregulation and border controls relaxation, policymakers can stimulate

growth both in terms of tourists and their contribution to GDP by reviewing taxes
in these areas.

Upcoming infrastructure investments

It is expected that the new airport projects to be undertaken will reduce the
potential problems of congestion in large metropolitan areas and that they will be
able to meet future demand for more ights.

For example, the New Mexico City International Airport will be inaugurated this
2020. Also the expand at São Paulo’s Viracopos International Airport will serve as a
third airport alternative in the region.

Thanks to the constant growth of air tra c in commercial aviation, the demand
for new aircraft for this area is estimated at 2,685 units. Single-aisle aircraft will
make up the majority of the acquisitions, with 85%, representing 2,400 such aircraft.

The airlines intend to expand beyond national borders, taking advantage of the
open skies policy in the Latin American commercial aviation market. The demand
for medium and large-capacity (or double-aisle) aircraft is also expected to increase,
with some 285 new planes.

The total eet in full service is estimated to more than double in the next 20 years,
from 1,375 to 2,895 aircraft. The market share of Latin American airlines is over
60%.

NORTH AMERICA AVIATION GROWTH FORECASTS

North America is composed of two major and mature

economies, US and Canada, which have established aviation
markets. This area is forecast to be the leader in both per capita
GDP and per capita travel rates.

After several signi cant crises in the last decade, as well as a

series of subsequent mergers, the U.S. eet has begun to grow
again, increasing by 6% in the last two years and eclipsing its
previous peak in 2007. The period of restructuring has
considerably improved the productivity of the region’s airlines.

Cargo ratios have increased from 72% to 83% since 2000. The
region’s carriers are also improving, and the region’s airlines are
also optimising their aircraft capacity.

The eet of single-aisle aircraft has remained unchanged since

2007; the 14% increase in ight capacity has been achieved
through a combination of increased capacity and a denser cabin.

Besides, the nancial results have been enormously positive,

with this area representing half of the pro tability of the global
airline industry since 2013. The airlines’ right nancial condition
in the region places it in a privileged position to continue with
its expansions, as well as the renewal of its eets for the next 20
years.

A reliable internal network of air routes

North America is home to some of the most massive passenger air tra c ows in
the world, including the largest today, the US domestic market. Two decades ago,
over 80% of the seats o ered were in local markets.

Today, while the internal market has grown, its overall share has declined to 75%.
This change has been largely due to American international market growing,
which now accounts for 22% of the seats o ered to and from the region.

International markets growth over the last ten years was also higher than that of
domestic and intraregional markets, with a 5.6% growth rate, compared to 2.1%
and 3.6% respectively.

Since 1998, the proportion of seats o ered to and from the region by North
American carriers has been relatively stable. While there has been some uctuation,
with North American airlines reaching about 54%, interestingly at the time of the
last nancial crisis, their share is about the same today as it was twenty years ago.

The world’s largest inter-regional

commercial aviation market

North America is the largest intra-regional market, representing 18% of global

passenger tra c in 2018. Although the long-term tra c growth rate is estimated at
2.6%, below the world average, the size of this market contributes signi cantly to
the increase in demand for single-aisle aircraft.

In the long term, international tra c is expected to grow faster than the local
market, by approximately 4% per year. This increase is driven by the opportunities
that are emerging from emerging markets.

Wide-body aircraft, which will account for 72% of deliveries over the next 20 years,
o er US airlines the ability to operate non-stop ights pro tably from both their
primary and secondary hubs, thereby taking advantage of market opportunities.

By 2038, single-aisle aircraft, will

account for 75% of the US eet

With load factors remaining close to historical levels and tra c growth above
standards, the eet has expanded at a faster rate to provide the necessary ight
capacity.

This improving trend is expected to continue, with an estimated 3% annual increase

in tra c in the area over the next 20 years, exceeding 1.8% of the yearly eet
growth.

Single-aisle aircraft in the North American eet has increased in recent years and
will continue to expand to represent 75% of the eet in twenty years, compared to
62% today.

Medium-sized aircraft, such as the Boeing 737, remain the most common size used
by network airlines and low-cost carriers, comprising the majority of new deliveries:
5,660 single-aisle aircraft.

Currently, the North American eet represents 30% of all commercial aircraft in
service worldwide. This large eet of more than 7,000 jets constitutes an essential
market for renewal during the forecast period. This area will need 5,970 new
aircraft over the next 20 years, 65% of which will be used to replace aircraft in the
eet currently in operation.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION IN RUSSIA – CIS

After two years of recession, mainly as a result of falling

commodity prices, the Russian economy, the region’s largest
economy, is recovering led by increased consumer spending and
xed investment.

The weight of other CIS economies has increased 5% for both

GDP (30%) and the private consumer sector (29%) over the past
ten years. Besides, real GDP in the CIS region is expected to
grow at 2.1% per annum over the next 20 years.

A large Middle Class, which is the key of the growth

While the population in the CIS is expected to increase moderately in the coming
years, the Middle Class is expected to continue to grow more rapidly. Since 2003,
the Middle Class in the CIS has improved dramatically.

Today, about 60% of the population is considered to be Middle Class, and at the
end of the forecast period, it is expected to be about 75%.

This growing wealth has to turn into strong growth in the Available Seat Kilometre
(ASK) this trend of increasing wealth is expected to turn into a higher propensity to
y in the region.

A region with a high international capacity

These factors have been based by impressive capacity growth in the region, which
until 2016 had international and internal growth at similar levels.

However, since 2016, international capacity growth has outpaced that of the region.
In addition to these advances, the region’s operations have become more
e cient, with nearly 60% more requests for assistance per aircraft in 2018,
compared to only ten years earlier.

This fact has been mainly because the average age of the eet has decreased by
two years to just over 13 years of age; this, in turn, is due to an increase in the
number of more eco-e cient modern aircraft in the region’s eet.

AFRICA, A KEY REGION FOR

GLOBAL COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Rising commodity prices and increased exports are expected to

revive the region’s economic growth.

In addition to developments in world commodity markets, the

expansion of domestic markets, the growth of the middle-class
population and further regional integration will support long-
term economic growth.

Economic growth is an active driver of commercial aviation and

is, therefore, an important variable when tra c forecasting.

When looking at Africa, it is encouraging to note that in 2018,

four of the ten fastest-growing countries were from the
continent.

In the longer term, Africa’s real GDP is expected to grow at a

rate of 3.6% per annum over the next 20 years. Improvements
in infrastructure, more excellent political stability, economic
diversi cation and regional integration would enhance this
vision by helping the region to exploit its economic growth
potential better.

Air transport liberalisation in Africa

The concept of air transport liberalisation in Africa emerged in 1988 with the
adoption of the Yamoussoukro Declaration, followed in 1999 by the Yamoussoukro
Decision.

This agreement provides for the entire intra-African air transport services
liberalisation in terms of market access, free exercise of tra c rights for scheduled
passenger air services, and free exercise of tra c rights for cargo services by eligible
airlines.

It also removes ownership restrictions and provides for full liberalisation of

frequencies. To implement this decision, the African Union has developed a agship
project called the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) as part of its
Programme 2063.

In the following graph, you can see the evolution of the working population in
Africa over the next 20 years. From it, we can conclude that this is a region with
incredible business potential for future commercial aviation.

To date, 28 countries have accepted SAATM since its launch in 2018: Burkina Faso,
Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Cape Verde, Congo, Chad,
Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gambia, Gabon, Guinea Conakry, Ghana, Kenya,
Lesotho, Liberia, Mozambique, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sierra
Leone, Swaziland, Togo, and Zimbabwe.

These countries account for more than 80% of the current aviation market in
Africa. About half of them have also signed a Memorandum of Implementation,
committing themselves to unlock the bene ts of aviation in their respective states.

Commercial aviation provides a bridge for

internal and external communication

Africa is the second-largest continent in the world, behind Asia, and covers about
one- fth of the Earth’s total land area.

About half the continent lies on equator either sides and is surrounded by the
Indian and Atlantic Oceans, with the Red and Mediterranean Seas to the north and
east.

Theories suggest that it was the origin of humanity, with its current population of
about 1.3 billion people with challenges to the development of land infrastructure
coming from investment or simply from its geography and climate.

Data from the African Development Bank suggest that the region has two
kilometres of built roads for every 100 km2 of land area and 46,000 km of
railways, compared to 122 km for every 100 km2 and 86,000 km of road and
railways in Europe.

Consequently, air transport plays an essential role in connecting African countries

to each other and the rest of the world.

A slower pace of liberalisation than in other countries

In the last 20 years, 138 million additional seats have been added to routes to,
from and within Africa, almost tripling since 1999.

This impressive growth has been achieved even though the pace of liberalisation in
Africa, particularly among the African States, has been slower than in other
continents.

So it is not unreasonable to suggest that the pace of growth and the bene ts
obtained could have been more signi cant during that time with further
liberalisation.

The relaxation or simpli cation of immigration procedures can also be a powerful

and instantaneous driver of growth in commercial aviation. The African visa
opening rate stated in 2018:

African citizens do not need a visa to travel to 25% of other African countries
(compared to 22% in 2017 and 20% in 2016).
Also, 24% of other African countries (even 24% in 2017, and 25% in 2016) can
obtain visas on arrival.
Africans need visas to travel to 51% of other African countries (compared to 54%
in 2017 and 55% in 2016).

As aviation continues to grow in Africa, so will the number of aviation megalopolises

on the continent. Today, there are two that have more than 10,000 long-haul
passengers per day, Addis Ababa and Johannesburg. By the end of 2038, there will
be eight.

It is interesting to note how the centre of gravity has shifted south and east over the
last 20 years as the market has evolved.

It is also interesting to note how little will move in the next 20 years, indicating more
balanced growth across the continent.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION IN THA ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

Since 1970, the share of Asia and the Paci c in the added global
GDP volume has been gradually increased. It grew by 21%
between 1970 and 1980, to 54% between 2010 and 2018.

Currently, only India outperforms China in economic growth.

Still, the entire Asia-Paci c region remains dependent on the
Chinese economy’s focus on services and domestic
consumption.

On the other hand, although the slowdown in China’s growth is

no longer a priority concern, growing trade tensions with the US
may pose a risk in the short term.

New manufacturing centres in Vietnam or Indonesia have the

potential to enhance growth in commercial aviation tra c.

Regional sources of growth, in particular, private consumption,

led by China’s economic conversion to services, will play a
more critical role in the next years.

Despite the recent modest slowdown, the Asia-Paci c region will

continue to lead global economic growth, with average real GDP
growth projected at 4.1% per annum over the next 20 years.

Asia-Paci c accounts for 40%

of global aircraft deliveries

Ten years ago, Asian low-cost airlines barely operated wide-body aircraft for the
medium and long-range market segments. Today, Asian-based low-cost carriers are
ying nearly 100 wide-body aircraft, with many more in the pipeline.

Meanwhile, wide-body aircraft represent the most cost-e ective way to continue
opening up new markets that were not accessible or productive in the past. In
China, international growth continues to accelerate at over 20% per year.

Small wide-body aircraft such as the Boeing 787 have been vital in opening new
routes in smaller secondary markets; while larger wide-body aircraft have been
instrumental in opening up routes from major centres to North America.

This market dynamism will lead to the need for new aircraft for the area; in
particular, it is estimated that more than 16,000 new aircraft will be delivered by
2038. Of these, around 4,000 will be used to replace older units, while more than
12,000 aircraft will be new additions to the Asia-Paci c eet.

The new Asian Middle Class

We have often said that the middle class is a crucial socio-economic group in terms
of air travel. Of all the regions, the middle class’ transition is the most impressive in
terms of speed of change, proportion and number of people.

In 2008, 32% (1.2 billion people in Asia and the Paci c) could be considered middle
class. By 2018, this gure had grown to almost 50% (2 billion people) and by the
end of 2038 or is projected to grow further to 72% (3.3 billion people).

As this picture of growing wealth has developed, so has the region’s importance for
air transport. Twenty years ago, Asia and the Paci c’s share of capacity was 23% and
had since grown on average by 6.5% per year, signi cantly faster than Europe and
North America.

System dynamism reorients

the commercial aviation market

In addition to huge economic growth in the area, liberalisation is responsible for

relevant expansion in the aviation industry of Asia.

For example, ASEAN open skies policy has allowed the market to expand further
than national borders and has supported airlines in implementing new business
models. Visa policy relaxation has also led to a considerable increase in travel both
within and outside of Asia.

The Asian aviation industry is being reworded thanks to several business models,
as well as di erent strategies that airlines are implementing.

Traditionally, the low-cost business model adopted a strategy focused on operating

at secondary airports, using single-aisle aircraft with a single-class product; thus
achieving high aircraft usage and minimizing airport and cabin services.

Now that this model has been successful in Asia, especially in South and Southeast
Asia, companies are beginning to extend the model to long-haul routes.

Although these routes are currently limited to this area, this new model is
generating high expectations among airline operators and investors, who are
aware that it is beginning to be pro table and strategically viable to compete
e ectively with the traditional airlines.

Aviation in China, the big market for working as a pilot

The increase in airspace liberation in countries like China, which is expected in the
next decades, will undoubtedly help increase connections to new destinations and
the number of ights between di erent cities in the country and international
ights.

Currently, only 20% of this space is used for this purpose, as military aviation
controls the rest. Airlines such as China Eastern, Air China and China Southern have
long demanded an increase in airspace that is expected to continue to open up in
the coming years. An opportunity to be able to work in this economic giant.

PILOTS TRAINING FOR COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT

Learning to y a plane is a recurring dream for many people. Not everyone

succeeds, as the requirements demanded to make it a complex task and all those
students who want to realize this dream must strive to achieve it.

At present, pilot training has become international, that is, the crisis that the sector
has experienced in Spain has caused many pilots to seek new professional
adventures in other countries.

Looking for employment alternatives in other countries is one of the tangible

realities of pilots, both national and international. Because of this, commercial
aviation is committed to quality training with the latest technologies and the best
facilities.

Al Grupo One Air, we know that this fact opens a range of essential possibilities to
become reference pilots among the signi cant companies in the aviation sector.

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