Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2016) 30:2215–2229
DOI 10.1007/s00477-015-1186-2
ORIGINAL PAPER
Estimation of desertification risk from soil erosion: a case study
for Gansu Province, China
Chen Zhang1 • Edward A. McBean1
Published online: 24 November 2015
Ó Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
Abstract Desertification is of increasing concern over
recent decades. A methodology based on soil erosion from
water and wind is developed, to evaluate desertification
risk. The approach includes utilization of both the
Universal Soil Loss Equation and the Wind Erosion
Equation developed by California Air Resources Board.
The desertification risk is mapped using ArcGIS techniques
and is compared with the assessment from the environ-
mentally sensitive areas model. The methodology, applied
to Gansu as a case study, one of the driest regions in China,
indicates that severe desertification is occurring in the
Province, particularly through wind erosion. Approxi-
mately one-half the land areas in Gansu will experience
high risk of desertification, especially in the western
regions. The mean water and soil erosion in Gansu is 0.05
tonnes/ha and 44 tonnes/ha per year, respectively. The
maximum per hectare soil loss through wind erosion is
estimated as thirty times larger compared with water ero-
sion. Improvements in vegetative cover as well as cropping
methods would significantly reduce the high risk of
desertification from 46 % of Gansu to less than 10 %. The
analysis also shows that desertification is sensitive to cli-
mate and terrain slopes, and that human influences such as
land use and population density can aggravate the degrees
of desertification.
& Chen Zhang
czhang03@uoguelph.ca
Edward A. McBean
emcbean@uoguelph.ca
1
School of Engineering, University of Guelph, Guelph,
Canada
Keywords Desertification risk  Soil erosion  USLE 
Wind erosion  Gansu
1 Introduction
Desertification has been rapidly expanding during the
1990s and is of concern as one of the biggest challenges to
sustainable development (UNCCD 2012). Degradation of
lands and ecosystems are the result of climate change,
including rainfall variabilities and changes in temperatures,
in addition to human activities such as cultivation, irriga-
tion, and mining (Poda et al. 2014; UNCCD 2014). Dry-
lands, which cover approximately 40 % of the world’s total
area, are highly vulnerable to desertification due to low
precipitation, low soil fertility, as well as easily eroded
soils (Reynolds et al. 2007). It is estimated that 70 % of the
dryland areas have been affected by desertification, which
may cause a relocation of approximately 50 million people
over the next ten years (UNCCD 2014). Therefore, a
methodology to identify the degrees of desertification, and
strategies in response, is needed.
Desertification has been studied for many areas in the
world (Han et al. 2014; Khosravi et al. 2014; Verón et al.
2006). Current research can be categorized as involving
field experiments, applying remote sensing techniques, and
using models integrating related indicators. Earlier studies
were primarily developed using only climate-based indices,
but the importance of using multiple representative indi-
cators in assessing desertification potential has been rec-
ognized (Santini et al. 2010). According to the United
Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD),
soil erosion and drought are the two most important factors
governing the rates of desertification (Al-Bakri et al.
2014). For example, the study of Basialashvili et al. (2014)
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indicated that the desertification in east Georgia was very
sensitive to droughts. The most frequently applied methods
for estimating soil erosion are based on the Universal Soil
Loss Equation (USLE) and Wind Erosion Equa-
tions (WEQ). Al-Bakri et al. showed that drought was a
key factor in accelerating desertification, in combination
with exploiting groundwater for irrigation. By incorporat-
ing four groups of indicators (soil, climate, vegetative
cover, and human management), Benabderrahmane and
Chenchouni (2010) indicated that human activities
including agriculture and overgrazing were the major fac-
tors in accelerating desertification, followed by type of
vegetative cover and climate, for eastern Algeria. Kosmas
et al. (2014) noted that rain seasonality, terrain slopes,
vegetative cover, and intensities of land use were the most
important desertification indicators. Kairis et al. (2013)
also agreed that indicators associated with soil erosion,
water stress, salinization, and forest fires were the most
important for assessing desertification. In general, deserti-
fication is widespread due to both natural and human
induced reasons, and the selected key indicators in
assessing desertification are identical.
Generally, challenges in characterization of desertifica-
tion rates are limited to assessing areas through identifying
desertified land areas and vegetative covers, meaning that a
methodology is needed for determining the degrees of
desertification risk, as well as the means by which the risk
might be reduced. This paper develops a methodology for
evaluating desertification, using Gansu Province as a case
study. The Province is prone to aggravated desertification
with severe issues of soil erosion (Fu et al. 2005). The
methodology is applied: (1) to estimate potential deserti-
fication risk of Gansu Province based on soil erosion; and
(2) to evaluate the options for reducing the risk of
desertification.
2 Methodology
The methodology for evaluating desertification risk
includes four sections: (1) estimating soil loss through
water and wind erosion; (2) evaluating desertification risk
based on soil erosion; (3) comparing the erosion-based
methodology with the environmentally sensitive areas
(ESAs) Model; and (4) Using Gansu Province in northwest
China as a case study.
2.1 Soil loss through water erosion
Soil erosion by water is estimated using the Universal Soil
Loss Equation (USLE), which consists of five factors:
rainfall erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K),
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Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2016) 30:2215–2229
slope length and steepness factor (LS), vegetation cover
factor(C), and erosion control practice factor (P) (Eq. 1).
A ¼ 2:47  R  K  LS  C  P ð1Þ
where A is the soil loss by water erosion per year (tonnes/
ha-year); R is the rainfall erosivity factor (100 ft
tons inch2 Þ=ðacre hourÞ; K is the soil erodibility factor
(tonnes acre  hourÞ=ð100 acre ft-tonsinch2 ); C is the veg-
etation cover factor (dimensionless); and P is the erosion
control practice factor (dimensionless).
R factor in Eq. 1 is estimated using the 30-min rainfall
erosivity index (StormEI30 ), and is expressed as REI30 (see
Eqs. 2 and 3) (Khosrowpanah and Heitz 2001).
nX
StormEI30 ¼ 1099  ½1  0:72  expð1:27  Ir Þ
o
 Pr  I30 ð2Þ
REI30 ¼ 0:01  StormEI30 ð3Þ
where StormEI30 is the storm erosion index (100ft
tons inch2 Þ=ðacre hour), Ir is the rainfall intensity during a
time interval (inch=hour); Pr is the rainfall amount during
the same period of time (inch); and I30 is the maximum
30-minute rainfall intensity (inch/hour).
Equation 4 is used to estimate the value of K (after
Wawer et al. (2005)).
K ¼ 0:01  ½0:00021  ð12  omÞ  M 1:14 þ 3:25
ð4Þ
 ðs  2Þ þ 2:5  ðp  3Þ
where
om = % organic matter;
M ¼ ð%silt þ %findsandÞ  ð100  %clayÞ;
s = soil structure class (integer values from 1 to 4); and
p = soil permeability class (integer values from 1 to 6).
The slope length and steepness factor (LS) is estimated in
ArcGIS based on the digital elevation model (DEM) data
following the procedures demonstrated by Pelton et al.
(2014).
Values of vegetation cover factor (C) are assigned based
on the land cover. Values of support practice factor (P) are
mainly determined from terrain slopes, assuming contour
cropping is applied. The values of C and P factors refer to
Peng et al. (2007), Kuok et al. (2013), Parveen and Kumar
(2012) and Stone et al. (2012).
2.2 Soil loss through wind erosion
Soil Loss by wind erosion can be estimated using the
modified Wind Erosion Equation (WEQ) from the USDA-
ARS WEQ by U.S.EPA (Eq. 5).
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2016) 30:2215–2229
E ¼ 2:47  A  I  K  C  L0  V 0 ð5Þ
where E is the total suspended particulate portion of wind
erosion losses (tonnes/ha-year); A = 0.025 (ratio of total
suspended particulate to total wind erosion losses); I is the
soil erodibility (tonnes/acre-year); K is the surface rough-
ness factor (dimensionless); C is the climatic factor (di-
mensionless); L0 is the unsheltered field width factor
(dimensionless); and V0 is the vegetative cover factor
(dimensionless).
Soil erodibility (I) and surface roughness factor (K) are
determined from soil textures and land covers, respec-
tively. Although climatic factors are calculated using Eq. 6
in the U.S.EPA-modified WEQ, the equation from FAO
(Eq. 7) is shown to have improved evaluations for the C
factors (Shi et al. 2004).
W3
C ¼ 0:345  2 ð6Þ
PE
where
W = mean annual wind speed at 10 m (miles/hour); and
PE = ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration.
X12   climate (C), land use (LU), land cover (LC), human
Pi
C ¼ 0:01  u3i  ð1  Þ  di ð7Þ
1
PETi
where
i = the number of month in a year (i = 1–12);
ui = monthly average wind speed at 2m height for month
i (m/s);
PETi = monthly potential evapotranspiration for month
i (mm);
Pi = monthly average precipitation for month i (mm);
and
di = number of days in month i.
0
Unsheltered field width factor (L ) and vegetative cover
factor (V0 ) were replaced with the erosion control practice
factor (P) and the vegetative cover factor (C) in the USLE
equation due to limited available data for the study area as
well as the similarity of the corresponding parameter.
2.3 Evaluation of potential desertification risk
and options in response
The potential desertification risk is evaluated using the sum
of per hectare water and wind erosion for the 1 9 km raster
cells. The risk is characterized as: very low, low, moderate,
high, very high, and severe. Spatial distribution of the risk
is mapped using ArcGIS.
To evaluate the potential to reduce the risk of deserti-
fication, two scenarios, each with two subdivisions, were
created, using adjustments in the human influenced factors,
2217
land cover and cropping methods. The effects of the
adjustments were compared through changes in percentage
areas and the amounts of soil erosion under the risk levels.
The scenarios are described below:
– Scenario (1a): replace the sparsely vegetated lands with
grassland.
– Scenario (1b): replace the sparsely vegetated lands with
forest.
– Scenario (2a): adopt strip cropping on slopes instead of
the assumed contour cropping for the current scenario.
– Scenario (2b): adopt terrace cropping on slopes instead
of the assumed contour cropping for the current
scenario.
2.4 Environmentally sensitive areas model
for desertification Risk
The environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs) model is
applied in comparison with the methodology based on soil
erosion. The selected indicators were grouped into six
categories and were considered as six indices: soil (S),
influences (HI), and water stress (W) (see Fig. 1). The six
indices and the integrated Desertification Risk Index (DRI)
were determined using Eqs. 8 and 9. DRI ranges from 1 to
10, where 1 represents the lowest desertification risk and 10
represent the highest risk.
DRI ¼ ðS  C  LU  LC  HI  WÞ1=6 ð8Þ
Indexn ¼ ðI1  I2  :::  Ii Þ1=i ð9Þ
where
Indexn = S, C, LU, HI, and W;
I = Reclassified indicator ranging from 1 to 10; and
i = the number of the indicators in Indexn .
3 Case study for Gansu Province
3.1 Study area
Gansu Province is located in northwest China. The Pro-
vince covers an area of 425,800 km2 and is divided into 14
administrative prefectures (Fig. 2). Gansu is bounded on
the south by the Qilian Mountains, and the north is adjacent
to portions of three deserts. Elevations increase in Gansu
from 1000 to 5000 m from northeast to southwest, and
78 % of the area in the Province is mountainous topogra-
phy. Fifty-three percent of the total area has been used for
agriculture, including approximately 20 % used as crop
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Fig. 1 Components of ESAs

model

Fig. 2 Location of Gansu

Province

lands, 19 % as forest lands, 58 % as pasture lands, and as
orchards with a minor proportion of the agricultural lands
(GBLR 2010).
Gansu is one of the driest land regions in China. The
general climate is semi-arid to arid, with aridity increasing
from the west to the east, and with the majority of the
rainfall concentrated in the summer (June–August). The
most arid western portion of the Province has an average
annual rainfall of less than 50 mm, while the eastern por-
tion has an annual rainfall of approximately 500 mm. Mean
annual potential evapotranspiration varies from 1400 to
3010 mm.

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The Province has been experiencing severe sand storms
and soil erosion from the Loess Plateau over the recent
years. In addition, increased human activities such as land
cultivation, irrigation, overgrazing, and mining have
aggravated the rates of desertification.
3.2 Parameters and data sources for the case study
Due to the limited available 30-min rainfall data for the
study area, a relationship between daily rainfall (Pdaily ) and
StormEI30 was developed through regression where the 30-
minutes rainfall data are available. The relationship was
based on a two-year time period and is described using a
power function (see Eq. 10).
StormEI30 ¼ 116:43  ðPdaily =25:4Þ1:6798 ð10Þ
The R2 value is 0.95 (see Fig. 3) between non-zero daily
rainfall and StormEI30 , meaning the function provides
good estimates using daily rainfall data.
Daily data for wind speeds from 1979 to 2010 were
acquired from climate forecast system reanalysis data
(CFSR data) on the website of GWDSWAT (2013). Raster
data of mean monthly precipitation can be accessed from
CRU CL 2.0 Data Set developed by New et al. (2002).
Potential evapotranspiration were obtained from CGIAR-
CSI (2015) attributed to Zomer et al. (2007) and Zomer
and Trabucco (2008).
Data regarding the soil erodibility factor (K) were
gathered from Digital Soil Map of the World (FAO/
UNESCO 2007) from FAO GeoNetwork. DEM data were
obtained from the China Historical Geographic Informa-
tion System (CHGIS) (Harvard University and Fudan
University 2010). Values of vegetative cover factor
(C) were assigned based on the 1 9 1 km land cover data
Fig. 3 Regression of non-zero
daily rainfall and StormEI30
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created by the IFPRI (2002) and obtained from FAO
Geonetwork. Values of support practice factor (P) were
mainly determined from terrain slopes, assuming contour
cropping is applied (Peng et al. 2007; Kuok et al. 2013;
Parveen and Kumar 2012; Stone et al. 2012). Assigned
values of C and P factors are listed in Tables 1 and 2.
Population statistics were aquired from Gansu year-
books on the website of CDC (2013). The classifications of
soil loss refer to the Standards for Classification and Gra-
dation of Soil Erosion published by Ministry of Water
Resources of the People’s Republic of China (1997) listed
in Table 3.
4 Results
4.1 Soil loss through water erosion
Figure 4 shows the water erosion throughout Gansu Pro-
vince. The results demonstrate that the majority of the
Province has low levels of water erosion. The areas of high
soil loss due to water erosion are concentrated along the
southern boundary of the Province and are as high as 15
tonnes/ha per year for the 1 9 km grid cell areas. The
southern boundary has the highest elevations and slope
gradients in the Province (see Fig. 2), and rainfall erosivity
is larger than other regions as well.
Zonal statistics of the 14 prefectures are listed in
Table 4. The statistics indicate that the entire Province is
likely to lose more than 2 million tonnes of soil per year, on
average, due to water erosion. The main contributing areas
are Jiuquan (approximately 30 % of the total water erosion
in Gansu), Zhangye and Longnan (both approximately
20 %), followed by Gannan Tibetan (10 % of the total
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Table 1 Land cover and C factors of Gansu Province

Description Cropland (%) Pasture (%) Forest (%) Others (%) C factor

Cropland 100 0 0 0 0.38

Cropland/pasture 50 50 0 0 0.3
Agriculture with forest 75 0 25 0 0.3
Agriculture with other vegetation 75 25 0 0 0.3
Agriculture/forest mosaic 50 0 50 0 0.2
Agriculture/other mosaic 50 25 25 0 0.2
Other vegetation with agriculture 35 30 30 5 0.2
Primarily Forest ([60 %) 0 20 80 0 0.006
Primarily Grassland ([60 %) 0 80 5 15 0.04
Other vegetation: wetlands, mangroves 0 0 100 0 0.006
Non-vegetated/sparsely vegetated 0 0 0 100 0.4
In-land water 0 0 0 100 0

4.2 Soil loss through wind erosion

Table 2 Terrain classes and P
Terrian slope classes P factor
factors of Gansu Province The wind erosion map and the related factors are shown in
Inland-water bodies 0.55 Fig. 5. The maximum wind erosion, which is as high as 475
0–2 % 0.55 tonnes/ha, is 30 times larger than the water erosion for a
2–5 % 0.6 1 9 1 km grid cell area. Unlike water erosion, wind erosion
5–8 % 0.6 is more intensive along the northern boundary and
8–16 % 0.8 throughout Jiuquan which is located in the western end of the
16–30 % 0.9 Province. These areas are adjacent to deserts and the climate
30–45 % 1 is drier, compared with the remainder of the Province.
[45 % 1 Zonal statistics (see Table 5) indicate that Gansu is
experiencing severe desertification risk through wind ero-
sion—a total amount of more than 3 billion tonnes of soil
loss per year. Jiuquan contributes approximately 75 % of
Table 3 Classifications of soil loss levels
the total soil loss through wind erosion, with the largest per
Desertification risk level Soil loss (tonnes/ha-year) hectare loss as well. The average wind erosion per hectare
Very low \10 for the entire province is 44 tonnes/ha per year. However,
Low 10–25 the amount for Jiuquan is as high as 168 tonnes/ha per
Moderate 25–50 year—i.e. 4 times above the average level. Jiayugan,
High 50–80 neighboring Jiuquan, has half the amount of wind erosion
Very high 80–150
per unit area (97 tonnes/ha per year), followed by Qin-
Severe [150
gyang with an average soil loss of 74 tonnes/ha. Zhangye,
which is close to Jiayuguan and the deserts in the north, has
an average of approximately 50 tonnes/ha per year. How-
water erosion), and the soil loss from the other prefectures ever, the maximum per unit loss is relatively high com-
are relatively slight (adding up to 20 %). pared with other areas (242 tonnes/year).
The Provincial average water erosion per unit area is
0.05 tonnes/ha. Although Jiuquan has the largest amount of 4.3 Reduction in potential desertification risk
soil loss compared with the other prefectures, the average
loss per unit area is only 0.04 tonnes/ha (with a maximum The potential desertification risk related to soil loss (Fig. 6)
loss is 6.13 tonnes/ha) since it covers a relatively larger present similar spatial distributions compared with wind
land area (36 % of the Provincial area). High rates of per erosion (see Fig. 5), since wind erosion is the primary
hectare water erosion were found for Longnan and Zhan- cause of soil loss in the Province. In other words, high
gye (0.18 and 0.12 tonnes/ha), with the maximum soil loss desertification risk is resulting primarily from soil loss
to be 5.21 and 11.33 tonnes/ha, respectively. through wind erosion.

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Fig. 4 Map of soil loss by water

erosion

Table 4 Water erosion for prefectures

Prefectures Area Percentage Average total Percentage of total Mean water erosion Max water erosion
(106 Ha) of total area (%) water erosion water erosion (%) per hectare (tonnes/ per hectare (tonnes/
(106 tonnes/year) ha-year) ha-year)

Pingliang 0.96 3 0.06 3 0.06 1.04

Qingyang 2.55 7 0.07 3 0.03 0.68
Tianshui 1.37 4 0.08 4 0.06 2.14
Longnan 2.63 7 0.47 22 0.18 5.21
Dingxi 1.95 5 0.07 3 0.03 1.27
Gannan Tibetan 3.19 8 0.20 10 0.06 3.12
Baiyin 1.89 5 0.03 1 0.01 0.49
Jinchang 0.73 2 0.01 1 0.02 0.81
Lanzhou 1.3 3 0.02 1 0.02 0.92
Linxia Hui 0.97 3 0.05 2 0.05 1.93
Wuwei 3.17 8 0.04 2 0.01 1.13
Zhangye 3.13 8 0.39 19 0.12 11.33
Jiayuguan 0.14 0.4 0.002 0 0.02 0.42
Jiuquan 13.77 36 0.61 29 0.04 6.13
Province 37.75 100 2.09 100 0.05 2.62

Table 6 shows the percentage areas under each risk level
for the current condition and the four scenarios with
changes in vegetative cover and cropping methods. The
current condition has 30 % of the entire province under
severe risk of desertification. Nearly half of the total
Provincial areas (46 %) are likely to experience high to
severe risk due to soil erosion, which can be found in the
following areas: (1) along the northern boundary of the
Province involves Zhangye, Wuwei, Baiyin, and Tianshui,
(2) essentially the entire areas of Jiquan and Jiayuguan in
the western boundary, and (3) Qingyang in the eastern
boundary. These areas can be found to have high erosion

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Fig. 5 Map of soil loss by wind

erosion

Table 5 Wind erosion for prefectures

Prefectures Area Percentage of Average total Percentage of Mean Wind Erosion Max Wind Erosion
(106 Ha) total area (%) wind Erosion total Wind Per Hectare (tonnes/ Per Hectare (tonnes/
(106 tonnes/year) Erosion (%) ha-year) ha-year)

Pingliang 0.96 3 34 1 36 94
Qingyang 2.55 7 234 6 74 191
Tianshui 1.37 4 28 1 24 82
Longnan 2.63 7 50 1 18 100
Dingxi 1.95 5 25 1 13 79
Gannan Tibetan 3.19 8 48 1 14 95
Baiyin 1.89 5 55 2 25 181
Jinchang 0.73 2 27 1 38 190
Lanzhou 1.3 3 6 0 4 31
Linxia Hui 0.97 3 23 1 16 82
Wuwei 3.17 8 181 5 34 150
Zhangye 3.13 8 143 4 52 242
Jiayuguan 0.14 0.4 13 0 97 236
Jiuquan 13.77 36 2802 76 168 349
Province 37.75 100 3670 100 44 150

related to climate, loose soil textures, and easily erosive
surfaces. The mid portion of the Province, such as Lanz-
hou, has very low risk of desertification with only minor
soil loss through both water and wind erosion.
Increases in vegetative cover as well as utilization of
improved cropping methods will lead to significant
reductions in desertification risk, especially for the western
regions. For example, areas under severe risk would
decrease from 30 to 1 % if the non-vegetated areas are
replaced with grassland and forest, and the areas having
high to severe risk would decrease from 46 to 8 %. Sce-
narios (1a) and (1b) which involve increasing vegetative

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Fig. 6 Map of potential

desertification risk

Table 6 Percentage areas under desertification risk levels

Risk Levels Area (%) Scenario (1a) area (%) Scenario (1b) area (%) Scenario (2a) area (%) Scenario (2b) area (%)

Very low 25 27 63 41 54
Low 20 45 20 12 12
Moderate 9 20 9 8 23
High 5 4 4 11 10
Very high 11 2 2 20 2
Severe 30 1 1 7 0

cover, would lead to the reduction in soil erosion mainly in
the sparsely vegetated western regions including Jiuquan,
Jiayuguan, and northern Wuwei, which are the major
contributing areas of soil loss. The desertification risk will
become even lower if the non-vegetated lands are replaced
by forest, than by grassland (See Figs. 7–scenarios (1a, b),
8), with 83 % of the areas under low and very low risk in
Scenario (1b) and 72 % in Scenario (1a). There would be a
reduction of approximately 80 % of the soil erosion—an
equivalent amount of approximately 3 billion tonnes of soil
per year.
In comparison, the effects of changing cropping meth-
ods are smaller in terms of decreasing the potential
desertification risk. Areas under high to severe risk would
be reduced from 46 to 38 % if strip cropping is applied,
and to 12 % if terrace cropping is applied. Scenarios (2a)
and (2b) will result in decreases in the risk not only in the
western regions, but the southern areas such as Qingyang
and Longnan as well (see Figs. 7–scenarios (2a, b), 9). The
reduced soil loss from changing the cropping methods
would be at least 50 %, which is nearly 1 billion tonnes of
soil per year.
4.4 ESAs-based desertification risk
The normalized ESAs-based desertification risk is shown in
Fig. 10(b). In comparison with the normalized erosion-
based desertification risk (see Fig. 10a), the risk estimated
by the ESAs model is lower for the western regions of the
Province. However, the ESAs model shows a relatively
higher risk for the mid and southern regions. In general, the

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Fig. 7 Map of potential desertification risk—adjustment scenarios

Fig. 8 Per hectare soil erosion

by prefectures under scenarios
(1a) and (1b)

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area with higher risk (‘‘IV’’, ‘‘V’’, and ‘‘VI’’) is 46 % from
the erosion-based model and is 34 % from the ESAs
model. Areas under the risk characterized ‘‘V’’ and ‘‘VI’’
from the ESAs model are only 1/8th of the areas from the
erosion-based model. Moreover, the highest risk level
(‘‘VI’’) covers one-third of the Province from the erosion-
based model, which is nearly zero from the ESAs model
(See Fig. 11).
The combination of larger Land Use Index (LU) and
Human Influences Index (HI) are the reason for the high
risk for the mid and the eastern regions from the ESAs
model, meaning dense population and human activities
may aggravate desertification risk.
5 Discussion
The evaluation of potential desertification risk for Gansu
Province herein indicates that the Province is experiencing
severe risk of desertification, particularly through wind
erosion. Research has shown that China is one of the most
affected countries by wind erosion in the world [e.g. (Shi
et al. 2004; Han et al. 2014)]. However, there are no
regional models and databases, as well as validated refer-
ences for the wind erosion situations in China. Taking the
Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) as an example,
Wang and Wang (2013) tested the WEPS for an area in
Minqin Desert and concluded that WEPS would have poor
performance if there lacked the measurements of required
parameters. Therefore, a database is in need for WEPS to
provide better predications for wind erosion in China. Klik
(2004) also mentioned that the physically-based WEPS
model can lower the accuracy of the simulations if the
parameters needed to be estimated through correlations
with available spatial data. In such a case, the empirical
Wind Erosion equation WEQ was applied to simulate wind
Fig. 9 Per hectare soil erosion
by prefectures under Scenarios
(2a) and (2b)
2225
erosion for a 20 km2 area in eastern Austrias and provided
reasonable results (Klik 2004). Although the applied
method herein was originally developed for California, the
results are appropriate to compare with the relevant studies
for Inner Mongolia and Qaidam Basin which are nearby
Gansu Province [e.g. (Hoffmann et al. 2011; Li et al. 2004;
Rohrmann et al. 2013)].
The analysis of the four scenarios involving adjustments
in vegetative cover and cropping methods provide insights
into the strategies for desertification management. The
assessment herein shows that high levels of both water and
wind erosion exist not only in drier lands such as Jiuquan
and Jiayugan in the western portion of the Province, but
also in less arid regions with overgrazing issues such as in
Longnan in the eastern portion of the Province as well.
Results indicate that increasing vegetative cover as well as
changing cropping methods will substantially reduce the
potential risk of desertification. Since nearly half of the
Province is non-vegetated, especially in the western pre-
fectures, the effect of increasing vegetative cover would
decrease the areas at high and severe risk from 46 % to less
than 10 %. Changing cropping methods would have a
relatively smaller effect of reducing the areas at high
desertification risk compared with increasing vegetative
cover, but would be more effective for the southern areas
of the Province. Similar conclusions have been made for
varies areas; for example, Miao et al. (2012) showed that
regions with high levels of wind erosion had the lowest
vegetative cover in the Yellow River Basin. Guo et al.
(2013) applied the Revised Wind Erosion Equa-
tion (RWEQ) for the agricultural lands near Inner Mon-
golia, and indicated that conservation tillage could
eliminate the chances of heavy wind erosion for the study
area. From the analysis of the NDVI data, Tan and Li
(2015) confirmed that the shelter forests which were aimed
at preventing the ongoing desertification, had achieved
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2226
Fig. 10 Comparison of
normalized desertification risk,
a erosion-based model, b ESAs
model
significant improvement for the study area that covers 6.9
million km2 in north China.
The results of soil erosion analyses herein show that the
maximum per hectare soil loss through wind erosion is
more than 30 times larger than through water erosion in
Gansu Province, and the difference between the average
per hectare soil loss is even larger—i.e. 0.05 tonnes/ha for
water erosion compared with 44 tonnes/ha for wind ero-
sion. Several studies have agreed that wind erosion plays a
more important role in desertification than water erosion.
For example, Dong et al. (2000) indicated that arid and
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Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2016) 30:2215–2229
semi-arid regions were more likely to be influenced by
wind erosion due to insufficient rainfall and soil moisture,
especially when wind speeds are high and lands are less
covered by vegetation. Rohrmann et al. (2013) also noted
that wind had a stronger effect in soil erosion compared
with water from the field study of erosion in Qaidam Basin
in northern China. Guo et al. (2014) pointed out that wind
erosion could be the primary factor for soil degradation in
arid and semi-arid regions in north China.
The assessment of soil loss in this paper indicates that
climatic factors which are related to wind speed and the
Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2016) 30:2215–2229
Fig. 11 Percentage areas at low
and high levels of desertification
degrees of aridity have significant impact on both water
and wind erosion. Specifically, the erosion due to climate is
more severe in the cold and dry periods from November to
June compared with the warm, and relatively wet periods,
from July to October. This is similar to the situations in
many places around the world. For example, a study of
desertification for Iraq showed that high temperatures and
limited rainfall, in addition to minimal vegetative cover,
were the most important factors in the process of deserti-
fication (Ali et al. 2013). Sterk (1997) commented that the
dry season and the early wet season were the two periods
during which erosive winds would most likely occur. In
such a case, ongoing climate change may accelerate the
progress of desertification through intensified soil erosion
by both wind and water.
The assessment in this paper also agrees that in addition
to large rainfall erosivity, slope gradients can significantly
increase soil loss through water erosion. Specifically,
although the western regions of Gansu Province have a low
mean annual rainfall (less than 50 mm per year), the areas
along the southern boundary experience high levels of
water erosion. These areas are close to the mountains and
have steep slopes compared with the remainder of the
Province. Kosmas et al. (2006) indicated that slope gradi-
ents would increase the risk of desertification through high
rates of soil erosion. The study by Zhao et al. (2014)
showed that soil erosion was related to both rainfall
intensity and slope gradient, and larger slope angles could
lead to higher erosion rates, especially under the condition
of low and moderate rainfall intensities. Liu et al. (2001)
noted that when land cover and control factors were
identical, the terrain slopes would have a major influence
on water erosion. Similar conclusion that higher soil ero-
sion rates may result from steep slopes was mentioned by
Jang et al. (2015) and Zhu (2014). Therefore, increasing
vegetative cover and applying conservation cropping
2227
methods on slopes would be helpful in controlling soil
loss—i.e. approaches such as strip-contoured cropping,
zone tillage, and tree planting, are encouraged on the
sloping areas to reduce soil erosion.
The comparison of the erosion-based model and the
ESAs Model indicates that dense population and human
activities may increase the risk of desertification. The ESAs
Model provides insights into evaluation of desertification
risk; however, it has limitations that handles the six inte-
grated indices as equal in importance. Although the
impacts of human influences were emphasized, as men-
tioned by Izzo et al. (2013) and Salvati and Bajocco
(2011), that desertification is sensitive to land use and
management, the effects of the nature-related indices
including soil, land cover, climate, and water stress are
diminished.
6 Conclusion
The methodology for evaluating desertification risk
demonstrates the degrees of risk as well as the strategies in
response. The methodology is primarily based upon
assessment of soil erosion through water and wind. The
results of the case study for Gansu indicate that wind
erosion is the primary cause for soil loss in the Province,
leading to increasing risk of desertification. The typical
arid climate is closely related to the rates of wind erosion.
Specifically, the amount of soil erosion in cold and dry
periods from November to June are larger, compared with
the wet seasons from July to August. The high levels of
water erosion in regions along the southern boundary
indicate that slope gradients have significant impacts on the
soil loss through water erosion. Nearly half of the Province
is likely to experience high to severe risk of desertificiaion
resulting from soil erosion, particularly for drier lands with
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erosive surfaces and loose soil textures such as the western
regions. However, increasing vegetative cover for the
Province and changing cropping methods would consid-
erably reduce the land areas at high risk to less than 5 % on
average. Therefore, strategies including increasing areas of
grassland and forest, applying reduced tillage methods, and
supportive practices such as strip-contoured cropping on
slopes are suggested to lower the potential desertification
risk.
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