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Reliability modeling of gas turbine plant based on optimal WEIBULL model

using artificial neural network

Conference Paper · September 2017

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The 2nd International Conference on Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics, Djelfa on 16-17 September 2017, Djelfa Algeria

Reliability modeling of gas turbine plant based on optimal WEIBULL model

using artificial neural network
1 1 1 1 1
Ahmed Ben Tahar , Bachir Nail , Ahmed Hafaifa , Benrabeh Djaidir , Choayb Djeddi

1 Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics Laboratory (LAADI) Faculty of Science and
Technology University of Djelfa, 17000 DZ, Algeria

Emails: ahmedhbb77@gmail.com, b.nail@univ-djelfa.dz, hafaifa@hotmail.com, d.

B.djaidir@univ.djelfa.dz , C.djeddi@ univ.djelfa.dz

Abstract

The gas turbines engines have been a great importance in the industrial field which are considered
to be power generating apparatus. It transform the thermal energy resulting from the combustion of
a gas into mechanical energy produced by the rotating rotor about an axis with variable speed. In this
work the reliability modeling of a GE MS5002C two shaft gas turbine is examined, where the best
parameters of the weibull model are estimated according a comparative study between graphic, least
square, and maximum likelihood methods which the latter one gave a best parameters estimation. The
optimal weibull model is modeled using the artificial neural networks in order to make the access to
any failure rate and mean time between failure (MTBF) easier based on time between failure (TBF).

Keywords: Modeling, Weibull, Estimation, Gas turbine, Artificial neural networks.

1. Introduction

In many fields of industry and the transport of natural gas, rotating machines have a great interest,
they are most often strategic and indispensable. Compared to other engines, gas turbines operate in
difficult operating conditions and sometimes in degraded mode, in response to user drums [1-5].
These rotating machines are extremely used in petroleum installations, for the transport of gas. The
efficiency of these machines is quite high, depending on their maintenance and maintenance,
especially if their maintenance is based on the analysis of their reliability. However, the complexity of
modeling their reliability increases even more if the operating life increases (age phase) of a gas
turbine. Practically, gas turbines have a long-life span and many changes occur over the life of these
machines. These operating conditions motivate specialists to analyze and study the reliability of this
type of machine, for the prevention against operational malfunctions. In the industrial literature, several
studies have been carried out in this field; Recently in 2016 Kai Wei et al. [6] studied the directional
effects on the reliability of turbine structures, Hamed Sabouhi et al. [7] have done reliability modeling
and availability analysis of a combined cycle gas turbine. In 2015 Komal Daejun Chang et al. [8]
performed an evaluation of the reliability system of a gas turbine based on fuzzy logic, using uncertain
case-study data. In 2014 Manjit Verma and Amit Kumar [9] proposed a new approach to evaluating
the reliability of the gas turbine system, Cheng Wei Fei et al. [10] They also proposed a new method of
reliability modeling for gas turbine blades based on the optimal dynamic deformation design of these
blades, Yeon Seung Lee et al. [11] have done optimization of reliability models applied to an offshore
wind turbine, Akwasi F. et al. [12] have made an improvement in the reliability modeling of these wind

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The 2nd International Conference on Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics, Djelfa on 16-17 September 2017, Djelfa Algeria

turbines and Yao Hsu et al. [13] performed their analyzes and reliability assessments. Although other
work has been done before, using reliability assessment approaches to ensure the availability of these
machines.

2. Reliability modelling

In modern industry, the reliability and functional availability of equipment have a major influence on the
profitability and productivity of these facilities. Practically, reliability is a quantitative quantity and
requires knowledge of the lifetime distributions in order to estimate it. These distributions must take
into account all the failure mechanisms associated with different technologies [68]. In this section, we
present the laws and reliability models that can be used to represent lifetime distributions that are most
frequently used in reliability analysis. We recall the main properties of these laws, associated reliability
functions, probability densities, and failure rates.

Availability, Probability for an entity to be able to perform a required function under given conditions at
a given time t, note D (t), Maintainability, Probability for a given maintenance operation to be
performed during a given time interval [t1, t2], MTA Mean time during which the system is unavailable.
It includes the detection time of the failure, the travel time of the maintenance service, the time of
supply of broken equipment, repair time, MTBF Mean time between failures of a repairable system,
MTTF Mean Time Between operation before the first failure MTTR Mean time repair techniques,
Feedback operational reliability experience data collected during the operation of equipment failures.

Reliability is the probability of good operation at time ti

R ( ti ) = Pr (T > ti ) {1}

The distribution function is the probability that the device will fail at time ti

F ( ti ) = Pr (T < ti ) {2}

Notons que ces deux fonctions sont complémentaires F (t ) + R (t ) = 1

The probability density of the instant of failure T is obtained by deriving the distribution function F(t) :

df ( t ) dR ( t )
f (t ) = =− {3}
dt dt

The failure rate λ (t ) is the probability that an entity loses its ability to perform a function during the

interval [t, t + dt], knowing that it has not been failing between [0, t].

2.1. WEIBULL distribution

Weibull's law is often used in several industrial applications, it characterizes the behavior of the
product in the three phases of life, independently, depending on the value of the form parameter β, for
the youth period β <1, period of life useful β = 1 and for the period of wear or aging β> 1. The Weibull
law is defined by two parameters η and β, characterized by:

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The 2nd International Conference on Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics, Djelfa on 16-17 September 2017, Djelfa Algeria

β
 t 
− 
The reliability R (t ) = e η  {4}

β
β −1 t
βt − 
The probability density f (t ) =   e η 
{5}
η η 

β −1
β 1
The failure rate λ (t ) =   {6}
µ η 

3. Gas turbine system

The gas turbine studied in this article is installed in a gas compression station at the TFT and UTGA
region in the northwest of the ILLIZI basin at 1300 km south of the capital Algiers. a two-shaft motor
connected by gas compressors type BCL, as shown in Figure1.

Figure 1 : GE gas turbine MS5002C and gas compressor BCL

3.1. Application

The estimation theory used in this application is concerned with the least square estimator (LSE), the
maximum likelihood (MLE) and the weibull paper-based graphic technique and the mean square error
formula MSE) are found in this reference [13]. Table 1 shows the history of the MS5002C GE turbine
in the year 2016-2017.

Table 1 : Historique de la turbine

N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Marche
220 372 420 832 1508 1584 2944 2980 3132 3520 3616
Cumulée (h)
TBF (h) 220 152 48 412 676 76 1360 36 152 388 96

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The 2nd International Conference on Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics, Djelfa on 16-17 September 2017, Djelfa Algeria

From the history to be grouped in class In case N> 50, several empirical rules propose the number of

∑
11
classes. In our case, N = 11 and according to the formula of Stringers [14], k=1+3.3log 1
ni ,
k=1+3.3log11=4.4, takes k = 5. Now calculating the time interval between two classes
TBFmax
∆T = =87.2.
k
Complete the number of failures in each class as shown in Table 2.

Table 2 : Failures by classe

Classe 1 2 3 4 5
∆T(H) 0-272 272-544 544-816 816-1088 1088-1360
Numbre of failures 7 2 1 0 1

The following table contains the calculated by the median rane method (in our case N = 11 <20)
and plots the weibull curve.

Table 3 : Estimations results Table 4 : Estimations methods

Method β η MSE
-3 Method (i)
Graphic 1.24 380 2.9×10
-3
Mean rank N>50
LSE 0.96 321.71 1.8×10

MLE 0.88 329.21 9.38×10

-4 Median rank N<20

Symetric 20<N<50

From the application of the above methods on the history of the gas turbine studied, the results
obtained are given in Table 3. Thanks to the results obtained, the maximum likelihood gives a better
MSE smaller square error, corresponding to 9.38 × 10-4 with the parameters β = 0.88 and η = 329.21.

4. Modeling based on artificial neural network (ANN)

4.1. The inputs/outputs neural network (NN) model

In order to determine the failure rate, a system using 2 input and 2 output variables is chosen, these
variables are sufficient to choose the architecture of the Neuro systems for the modeling of this system
by two equations which represent the input-output relations as it is shown in the following figure:

TBF λ
NN
Ƞ Model
MTBF
Figure 2 Model diagram NN

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The 2nd International Conference on Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics, Djelfa on 16-17 September 2017, Djelfa Algeria

The model (NN) contain two inputs (η and TBF) to generate a single output λ (value of the failure rate)
and the MTBF output calculate based on the following relation MTBF = A.η. 13 Learning iteration
(Epoch), 3 layers and two layers hidden (one to one neural, the other 150 neural and the last one to a
single neural), as shown in the matlab interface of neural network

The following figures 3-6 shown the results obtained from the modeling of the best weibull model
parameters by maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) using artificial intelligence neural network (NN).

Figure 3 : Failure rate NN and MLE

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The 2nd International Conference on Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics, Djelfa on 16-17 September 2017, Djelfa Algeria

Figure 4 : Modeling error

Figure 5: Validation modeling (performance)

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The 2nd International Conference on Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics, Djelfa on 16-17 September 2017, Djelfa Algeria

Figure 6: Validation modeling (regression)

5. Conclusion

In this paper, we have applied the modeling of the best weibull parameters using the artificial neural
networks applied to the turbine in this work. And we have applied the detailed calculations to
determine the rate of failure. According to the tests on the different reliability approaches, we confirm
that the results obtained from reliability are more accurate and realistic estimates in the case under
review. This approach made it possible to model the acts of degradation of the components of the gas
turbine examined and to estimate and plan the duration of the malfunction of this gas turbine system.

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 The 2nd International Conference on Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics, Djelfa on 16-17 September 2017, Djelfa Algeria

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