[Indonesia] Metal & Mineral Mining

Aneka Tambang Buy

(ANTM IJ) (Upgrade)

Solid outlook as a diversified metal miner TP: 960

Upside: 34.3%

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia

Andy Wibowo Gunawan
andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id

Global gold price outlook still Long road to US’ economic recovery
promising  Given the estimated long road to the US’ economic revovery and also the possible persistence
of low rates, we revise up our average full-year 2020 – 21F global gold price assumption to
USD1,850/troy and USD1,800/troy (+8.8% and +2.9% from our previous estimate),
respectively.
 Despite the US’ positive unemployment data for the month of August, Powell remarked that
the US’ economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has a long road ahead, and
interest rates will remail low for a long time.

Solid local nickel demand Solid downstream nickel products = Higher needs for nickel ore
 The upward trend of Indonesia’s total ferronickel production indicates higher needs for nickel
ore, which should benefit ANTM as one of the largest nickel ore producers in Indonesia.
 From a longer-term perspective, we note that the Indonesian government targets total
smelters to reach 52 units by 2024F. Out of this targeted figure, there would be 29 units of
nickel smelters, reflecting 55.8% of Indonesia’s total smelters by 2024F.

Financial outlook & valuation Revising up our earnings estimates and upgrade our target price to IDR960/share
 After revising up both of our average full-year 2020 – 21F global gold prices and ANTM’s nickel
ore sales volume assumption, we raise ANTM’s full-year 2020 – 21F revenue to IDR28.6tr and
IDR32.2tr (+12.7% and +12.1% from our previous estimates), respectively.
 Thus, we also revise up ANTM’s full-year 2020 – 21F net profit to IDR249bn and IDR386bn
(+19.8% and +24.6% from our previous assumption), respectively.
 We upgrade our target price for ANTM from IDR655 to IDR960 after revising up our earnings
estimate. We like ANTM as it is the most diversified Indonesian metal miner and has abundant
nickel reserves.

Key data
(D-1yr=100)
JCI ANTM Share Price (9/29/20, IDR) 715 Market Cap (IDRbn) 17,182.0
Consensus NP (21F, IDRbn) 383.1 Shares Outstanding (mn) 24,030.8
110
100
90 NP Mirae Asset vs. consensus (21F, %) 0.8 Free Float (%) 35.0
80
70 EPS Growth (21F, %) 55.1 Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 1.5
60
50 P/E (21F, x) 44.5 52-Week Low (IDR) 338
40
Industry P/E (21F, x) 7.9 52-Week High (IDR) 1,025
30
9/19 11/19 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 Benchmark P/E (21F, x) 13.0

Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics

(%) 1M 6M 12M FY (Dec) 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/22F
Absolute -11.6 61.1 -26.8 Revenue (IDR bn) 12,654 25,275 32,719 28,577 32,222 36,674
Relative -3.4 53.0 -5.9 OP (IDR bn) 601 1,556 956 571 653 1,168
Net profit (IDR bn) 136 1,636 194 249 386 632
EPS (IDR) 6 68 8 10 16 26
BPS (IDR) 769 768 755 700 711 729
P/E (x) 125.9 10.5 88.6 69.1 44.5 27.2
P/B (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.3 7.3 9.7 11.7 13.0 11.5
RoE (%) 0.7 8.9 1.1 1.5 2.3 3.6
Notes: NP is attributable to owners of the parent
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
September 30, 2020 Aneka Tambang

C O N T E N T S

Global gold price outlook still promising 3

Solid local nickel demand 4

Financial outlook 5

Recommendation 6
Upgrade our target price to IDR960 6

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September 30, 2020 Aneka Tambang

Global gold price outlook still promising

Long road to US’ economic recovery

Despite the US’ positive unemployment data for the month of August, Powell remarked that
US’ economy recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has a long road and interest rates
will remail low for a long time. In March, the federal fund rates were lowered by 150bps.
Purchases of treasury and agency securities are also limited only in the amount needed.
Furthermore, according to Powell’s statement, the US’ economy may progress merely at a
modest pace towards recovery. Thus, we think that it would be an upside risk to global gold
prices for this year. Moreover, the US’ unemployment declined to 8.4% in August from its
peak at 14.7% in April, and we think that this improvement resulted from the US’ eased the
lockdown since May.

Figure 1. US’ unemployment rate trend Figure 2. US’ initial jobless claims trend

(%) ('000 people)

22
7,100

18 6,100

5,100
14
4,100

10 3,100

2,100
6
1,100

2 100
Jan-08 Oct-09 Jul-11 Apr-13 Jan-15 Oct-16 Jul-18 Apr-20 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13 Oct-14 Apr-16 Oct-17 Apr-19
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Raising our full-year 2020 – 21F global gold prices

Given the estimated long road to the US’ economic revovery and also the possible
persistence of low rates, we revise up our average full-year 2020 – 21F global gold price
assumption to USD1,850/troy and USD1,800/troy (+8.8% and +2.9% from our previous
estimate), respectively.

Figure 3. The federal funds rate trend Figure 4. Global gold prices vs. dollar index

(% ) (USD/troy) (pts)
Gold (L) Dollar index (R)
3 2,200 120

2,000
110
1,800
2 100
1,600

1,400 90

1,200
1 80
1,000
70
800

0 600 60
Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Aug-13 Feb-15 Aug-16 Feb-18 Aug-19 Jan-09 Jul-10 Jan-12 Jul-13 Jan-15 Jul-16 Jan-18 Jul-19
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 30, 2020 Aneka Tambang

Solid local nickel demand

Solid downstream nickel products = Higher needs for nickel ore

Even though Indonesia’s total nickel pig iron production has been dwindling, we see that
Indonesia’s total ferronickel production has been continuously on the rise. We think that the
increase in Indonesia’s total ferronickel production was casued by the addition of new eight
nickel smelters last year. Furthermore, the upward trend of Indonesia’s total ferronickel
production indicates higher needs for nickel ore, which should benefit ANTM as one of the
largest nickel ore producers in Indonesia.

Figure 5. Indonesia’s NPI and ferronickel production trend Figure 6. Indonesia’s NPI and ferronickel sales volume trend

('000 tonnes) ('000 tonnes)

NPI Ferronickel NPI Ferronickel
140 200

120 160

100
120
80
80
60

40
40

20 0
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20
Source: ESDM, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: ESDM, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Indonesia’s nickel smelters to reach 29 units by 2024F
From a longer-term perspective, we note that the Indonesian government targets total
smelters to reach 52 units by 2024F. Out of this targeted figure, there would be 29 units of
nickel smelters, reflecting 55.8% of Indonesia’s total smelters by 2024F. Of a note, in 2016,
there were only seven units of Indonesia’s nickel smelters. The increase in Indonesia’s total
nickel smelters would lead to greater nickel ore needs, and, thus, would benefit ANTM over
the longer term.

Figure 7. Indonesia’s nickel smelter quantity trend Figure 8. Nickel smelter to dominate in 2024F

(units) (%)
Nickel Others
40

30

Nickel
20
Others

10

0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
Source: ESDM, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: ESDM, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 30, 2020 Aneka Tambang

Financial outlook

Revising up our earnings estimate

After revising up both of our average full-year 2020 – 21F global gold prices and ANTM’s
nickel ore sales volume assumption, we raise ANTM’s full-year 2020 – 21F revenue to
IDR28.6tr and IDR32.2tr (+12.7% and +12.1% from our previous estimates), respectively.
Thus, we also revise up ANTM’s full-year 2020 – 21F net profit to IDR249bn and IDR386bn
(+19.8% and +24.6% from our previous assumption), respectively.

Table 1. Changes in assumption (IDR

bn)
2020F 2021F
Assumption Change Change
Old New Old New
Global gold price (USD/troy) 1,700 1,850 8.8 1,750 1,800 2.9
Nickel ore sales volume (mn wmt) 2.0 2.5 25.0 3.0 4.0 33.3
Revenue (IDR bn) 25,359 28,577 12.7 28,737 32,222 12.1
Cost of revenue (IDR bn) -23,828 -26,878 12.8 -26,031 -29,089 11.7
Gross profit (IDR bn) 1,530 1,700 11.1 2,706 3,134 15.8
Operating profit (IDR bn) 516 571 10.6 551 653 18.4
Net profit (IDR bn) 208 249 19.8 310 386 24.6
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 9. ANTM’s revenue trend Figure 10. ANTM’s net profit trend

(IDR tr) (IDR bn)

35
1,700

30

1,300
25

20
900

15
500
10

5 100
2017 2018 2019 2020F 202F 2017 2018 2019 2020F 202F
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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September 30, 2020 Aneka Tambang

Recommendation

Upgrade our target price to IDR960

We upgrade our target price for ANTM from IDR655 to IDR960 after revising up our
earnings estimate. We like ANTM as it is the most diversified Indonesian metal miner and
has abundant nickel reserves. In 2018, ANTM’s nickel ore reserves contributed 14.0% to
Indonesia’s total nickel ore reserves. Our downside risks are regulatory changes and lower
global gold and nickel prices.

Figure 11. ANTM’s forward P/B band

(x)
1.8

1.4 +2 st.dev

+1 st.dev

1.0 Mean

-1 st.dev
0.6
-2 st.dev

0.2
Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

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Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ)

Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized)

(IDRbn) 12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/22F (IDRbn) 12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/22F
Revenue 32,719 28,577 32,222 36,674 Current Assets
Cost of Sales -28,271 -26,878 -29,089 -33,159 Cash and Cash Equivalent 3,636 3,229 1,735 2,050
Gross Profit 4,447 1,700 3,134 3,515 AR & Other Receivables 1,431 2,213 2,495 2,840
SG&A Expenses -3,492 -1,129 -2,481 -2,347 Inventories 1,796 2,209 2,391 2,725
EBIT 956 571 653 1,168 Other Current Assets 802 132 180 263
EBITDA 2,282 1,987 1,891 2,206 Non-Current Assets
Net Interest Income (Exp.) -113 -213 -189 -240 Investments in Associates 745 745 745 745
Forex Gain (Loss) 0 0 0 0 Property, Plant and Equipment 19,619 18,617 19,796 20,225
Others -68 32 123 0 Intangible/Other Assets 2,166 3,363 3,788 4,412
Net Gain from Inv. In Associates -88 -58 -72 -86 Total Assets 30,195 30,508 31,130 33,259
Pretax Profit 687 332 514 842 Current Liabilities
Income Tax -493 -83 -129 -211 AP & Other Payables 740 1,620 1,753 1,999
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 2,993 2,648 2,550 4,835
Net Profit 194 249 386 632 Other Current Liabilities 1,560 1,418 1,586 1,826
Non-Current Liabilities
Margin Long-Term Financial Liabilities 5,564 6,649 6,649 5,386
12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/22F Other Non-Current Liabilities 1,204 1,362 1,510 1,691
Gross Margin (%) 13.6 5.9 9.7 9.6 Total Liabilities 12,061 13,698 14,049 15,736
EBITDA Margin (%) 7.0 7.0 5.9 6.0 Controlling Interests
Operating Margin (%) 2.9 2.0 2.0 3.2 Capital Stock 2,403 2,403 2,403 2,403
Net Margin (%) 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 Additional Paid in Capital 3,935 3,935 3,935 3,935
Retained Earnings 7,913 8,087 8,357 8,799
Other Equity Component 3,883 2,386 2,386 2,386
Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 0 0
Stockholders' Equity 18,133 16,810 17,080 17,523

Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized)
12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/22F
P/E (x) 88.6 69.1 44.5 27.2
P/B (x) 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Cash Flows (Summarized) EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 11.7 13.0 11.5
(IDRbn) 12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/22F EPS (IDR) 8 10 16 26
Cash Flows from Op Activities -154 1,879 1,412 1,393 BPS (DR) 755 700 711 729
Net Profit 194 249 386 632 DPS (IDR) 13 0 0 1
Depreciation 1,326 1,416 1,238 1,038 Payout Ratio (%) 157.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Change in Working Cap -514 -315 -331 -434 Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.1
Others -1,160 529 119 157 Revenue Growth (%) 29.4 -12.7 12.8 13.8
Cash Flows from Inv. Activities 2,826 -3,441 -2,842 -2,091 EBITDA Growth (%) -26.8 -12.9 -4.9 16.7
Capex 1,126 -2,143 -2,417 -1,467 Operating Profit Growth (%) -38.6 -40.3 14.3 79.0
Others 1,700 -1,297 -425 -624 EPS Growth (%) -88.2 28.3 55.1 63.7
Cash Flows from Fin. Activities -3,335 1,155 -66 1,013 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 22.9 12.9 12.9 12.9
Change in Financial Liabilities -1,364 740 -98 1,021 Inventory Turnover (x) 15.7 12.2 12.2 12.2
Change in Equity -79 -1,497 0 0 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 38.2 16.6 16.6 16.6
Dividends Paid -306 -7 -11 -18 ROA (%) 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.9
Others -1,586 1,920 44 10 ROE (%) 1.1 1.5 2.3 3.6
Increase (Decrease) in Cash -663 -407 -1,495 315 Current Ratio (%) 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9
Beginning Balance 4,299 3,636 3,229 1,735 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (x) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Ending Balance 3,636 3,229 1,735 2,050 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 4.1 1.2 1.4 2.3
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates

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APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

2-Year Rating and Target Price History
Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price
(IDR) ANTM Analyst's TP
ANTM IJ 9/22/2020 Buy 960
7/7/2020 Hold 655 1,700

4/27/2020 Buy 750

11/22/2019 Buy 1,365 1,200

10/26/2018 Buy 1,115

6/25/2018 Buy 1,400 700
3/9/2018 Buy 1,225
1/19/2018 Buy 1,020 200
12/5/2017 Buy 820 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20

10/9/2017 Trading Buy 730

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings

Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term
material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future
earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic
conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution

Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell
Equity Ratings Distribution 38% 20% 35% 7%
* Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of June 30, 2020)

Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or
more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily
responsible for this report. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject
companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was,
is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of PT Mirae Asset
Sekuritas Indonesia, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business
units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do
not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia except as otherwise stated
herein.

Disclaimers
This report is published by PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (“Mirae Asset”), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the
Indonesia Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such
information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness,
accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Bahasa Indonesia. If
this report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made
available to investors in advance of this report. Mirae Asset, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for
any loss arising from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a
solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated
institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no
person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Mirae Asset and its affiliates to registration or licensing
requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice
and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior
written consent of Mirae Asset. Mirae Asset, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the
subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments
from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset and its affiliates may have had, or may be
expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are
permitted under applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down
as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Fu ture returns are not

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September 30, 2020 Aneka Tambang

guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.

Distribution
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within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and
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case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements.
Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong
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All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contac t Mirae
Asset or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae
Asset and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

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Mirae Asset Daewoo International Network

Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (Seoul) Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd. Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd.
Global Equity Sales Team Units 8501, 8507-8508, 85/F 41st Floor, Tower 42
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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 10